个人MBA十周年纪念版赞
Praise for The Personal MBA 10th Anniversary Edition
“有用的想法和有用的解释的金矿。每个企业家都应该拥有一份。”
“A goldmine of useful ideas and helpful explanations. Every entrepreneur should own a copy.”
——詹姆斯·克莱尔，百万册畅销书《原子习惯》的作者
—James Clear, author of the million-copy bestseller Atomic Habits
“Josh 为我的商业教育所做的贡献比我的 MBA 还要多。个人 MBA 课程将带您了解在商业中脱颖而出所需的心智模型。一辈子的商业知识都在一本书里。”
“Josh has done more for my business education than my MBA. The Personal MBA walks you through the mental models you need to excel in business. A lifetime of business knowledge in one volume.”
—Shane Parrish，Farnam Street (fs.blog) 的创始人和 The Knowledge Project 播客的主持人
—Shane Parrish, founder of Farnam Street (fs.blog) and host of The Knowledge Project podcast
“杰作。这是我推荐给所有对商业感兴趣的人的“从这里开始”一书。对您需要知道的一切的惊人概述。涵盖所有基础知识，减去流行语和绒毛。这是我多年来读过的最鼓舞人心的东西之一。”
“A masterpiece. This is the ‘start here’ book I recommend to everyone interested in business. An amazing overview of everything you need to know. Covers all of the basics, minus buzzwords and fluff. One of the most inspiring things I’ve read in years.”
——Derek Sivers，CD Baby 的创始人和畅销书Anything You Want的作者
—Derek Sivers, founder of CD Baby and bestselling author of Anything You Want
“ The Personal MBA是我读过的最好的商业书籍。大多数书籍都孤立地关注业务的单个部分，但《个人 MBA》会带您了解每个活动部分，并为您提供工具以了解这些部分如何协同工作以创建一个完整的系统。”
“The Personal MBA is the single best business book I’ve read. Most books focus on a single part of business in isolation, but The Personal MBA walks you through every moving part, and gives you the tools to understand how those parts work together to create a complete system.”
—Amy Hoy，Noko Time Tracking and Stacking the Bricks 的创始人
—Amy Hoy, founder of Noko Time Tracking and Stacking the Bricks
“我唯一推荐的商业书籍。Josh 以某种方式将整个重要知识库浓缩成一本可读性极强的小书，因此您可以花更少的时间阅读，而将更多的时间用于建立您的业务。它非常适合提供概述和作为参考。与我书架上的任何其他书籍相比，我重温《个人 MBA》的次数更多。”
“The only business book I recommend. Josh somehow condenses an entire library of crucial knowledge into a short book that’s eminently readable, so you can spend less time reading and more time building your business. It’s perfect for both providing an overview and serving as a reference. I revisit The Personal MBA more than any other book on my shelf.”
——Courtland Allen，Indie Hackers 联合创始人
—Courtland Allen, cofounder of Indie Hackers
“《 The Personal MBA 》首次发行时，我从头到尾读了一遍，它对我看待商业的方式产生了重大影响。令人难以置信的是，Josh 能够将数百本书和数百年的商业知识提炼成这本简洁而优雅的巨著。”
“I read The Personal MBA cover to cover when it was first released and it had a major impact on how I view business. It’s incredible how Josh was able to distill hundreds of books and hundreds of years of business knowledge into this succinct and elegant tome.”
— Rob Walling，MicroConf 的联合创始人和畅销书《Start Small, Stay Small 》的作者
—Rob Walling, cofounder of MicroConf and bestselling author of Start Small, Stay Small
“十年前，我通过考夫曼的书获得了 MBA 教育。从那以后，他实用的商业洞察力和思维技巧从未让我失望。个人 MBA是这个星球上最精炼、最快速的 MBA：所有的见解，没有自我。”
“Ten years ago, I got an MBA education courtesy of Kaufman’s book. His practical business insights and mindset techniques haven’t let me down since. The Personal MBA is the most distilled, most accelerated MBA on the planet: all of the insights, none of the ego.”
——Joanna Wiebe，Copyhackers 创始人
—Joanna Wiebe, founder of Copyhackers
“在过去十年的大部分时间里，我那本破旧的个人 MBA一直放在我的办公桌伸手可及的地方。自从我开始和发展自己的事业以来，这本书一直是我在学校从未学过的洞察力、清晰度和智慧的首选手册。”
“My well-worn copy of The Personal MBA has been sitting within arm’s reach by my desk for the better part of the past decade. Since starting and growing my own business, this book has been my go-to manual for insights, clarity, and wisdom that I never learned in school.”
——Shawn Blanc，The Sweet Setup 和 The Focus Course 的创始人
—Shawn Blanc, founder of The Sweet Setup and The Focus Course
“阅读（反复阅读）个人 MBA十年后，我仍然经常参考它并用它来做出更好的决定。无论是制定启动我的写作工作室的商业计划、计划我的一天，还是采用系统的方法来识别和解决问题，我想不出还有哪本书对我的整体生产力和生活乐趣产生如此积极的影响”
“Ten years after reading (and rereading and rereading) The Personal MBA, I still refer to it often and use it to make better decisions. Whether it’s building a business plan to launch my writing studio, planning my day, or taking a systematic approach to identify and solve problems, I can’t think of any other book that’s had such a positive impact on my overall productivity and enjoyment of life.”
——丹尼尔·约书亚·鲁宾，剧作家，《故事的 27 条基本原则》的作者
—Daniel Joshua Rubin, playwright and author of 27 Essential Principles of Story
“个人 MBA应该是商界人士必读的一本书。这本书让我接触到从未在其他任何地方学过的思想、系统和最佳实践。即使在十年后，我仍然会定期参考它。买它，读它，然后把它收起来。它将成为您未来多年不变的商业伙伴。”
“The Personal MBA should be required reading for anyone in business. This book exposed me to ideas, systems, and best practices that I had never been taught anywhere else. Even after ten years, I still reference it on a regular basis. Buy it, read it, then keep it close. It’ll be your constant business companion for years to come.”
——Tim Grahl，Running Down a Dream的作者和 Book Launch 的创始人
—Tim Grahl, author of Running Down a Dream and founder of Book Launch
“在遇到The Personal MBA之前，我于 2005 年获得了 MBA学位，但我仍然觉得自己对商业一无所知。回想起来，我希望我在注册 MBA 课程之前读过这本书——它会帮助我在完成学位时更加专心。谁知道 。. . 我可能完全跳过了 MBA。这无疑是最好的基础商业书籍。”
“I graduated with an MBA in 2005 before I encountered The Personal MBA, but I still felt like I didn’t know anything about business. In retrospect, I wish I had read this book before enrolling in an MBA program—it would’ve helped me be more mindful while completing my degree. Who knows . . . I might have skipped the MBA completely. This is easily the best foundational business book available.”
— RedHat, Inc. 高级软件经理 Roger Hui
—Roger Hui, senior software manager at RedHat, Inc.
“我使用个人 MBA中的心智模型在不到四个星期的时间内创建了一家盈利的企业。Josh 很快就消除了许多关于创业的错误信念，他的指导使我的工作效率和成功大大提高，我的生活也更加充实。”
“I used the mental models in The Personal MBA to create a profitable business in less than four weeks. Josh quickly dispels many mistaken beliefs about entrepreneurship, and his guidance has made me vastly more productive and successful, and my life more fulfilling.”
—Evan Deaubl，Tic Tac Code, LLC 总裁兼首席执行官
—Evan Deaubl, president and CEO of Tic Tac Code, LLC
“将这本书归档在‘没有借口’下。” 读完之后，您就不会对别人说您不够聪明、不够有洞察力或学识不够，无法从事重要工作的人敞开心扉。Josh 将带您踏上一次有价值的商业关键思想之旅。”
“File this book under ‘No Excuses.’ After you’ve read it, you won’t be open to people telling you that you’re not smart enough, not insightful enough, or not learned enough to do work that matters. Josh takes you on a worthwhile tour of the key ideas in business.”
——赛斯·戈丁，畅销书《这就是营销》的作者
—Seth Godin, bestselling author of This Is Marketing
“无论他们告诉你什么，MBA 学位都不是必需的。如果你将阅读本书与实际尝试相结合，你将在商业游戏中遥遥领先。”
“No matter what they tell you, an MBA is not essential. If you combine reading this book with actually trying stuff, you’ll be far ahead in the business game.”
——凯文·凯利，《连线》杂志创始执行主编，畅销书《不可避免》的作者
—Kevin Kelly, founding executive editor of Wired and bestselling author of The Inevitable
投资组合/企鹅
Portfolio / Penguin
Penguin Random House LLC 的印记
An imprint of Penguin Random House LLC
个人 MBA：掌握商业艺术，由企鹅兰登书屋有限责任公司旗下的 Portfolio / Penguin 于 2010 年首次出版。
The Personal MBA: Master the Art of Business first published by Portfolio / Penguin, an imprint of Penguin Random House LLC, in 2010.
该修订版和扩充版由企鹅兰登书屋有限责任公司旗下的 Portfolio / Penguin 于 2020 年出版。
This revised and expanded edition published by Portfolio / Penguin, an imprint of Penguin Random House LLC, in 2020.
版权所有 © 2010, 2020 Worldly Wisdom Ventures LLC
Copyright © 2010, 2020 Worldly Wisdom Ventures LLC
企鹅支持版权。版权激发创造力，鼓励不同的声音，促进言论自由，并创造充满活力的文化。感谢您购买本书的授权版本并遵守版权法，未经许可不得以任何形式复制、扫描或分发本书的任何部分。你是在支持作家，让企鹅继续为每一位读者出版书籍。
Penguin supports copyright. Copyright fuels creativity, encourages diverse voices, promotes free speech, and creates a vibrant culture. Thank you for buying an authorized edition of this book and for complying with copyright laws by not reproducing, scanning, or distributing any part of it in any form without permission. You are supporting writers and allowing Penguin to continue to publish books for every reader.
国会图书馆将精装版编目如下：
THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS HAS CATALOGED THE HARDCOVER EDITION AS FOLLOWS:
考夫曼，乔希。
Kaufman, Josh.
个人MBA：掌握商业艺术/乔希·考夫曼。
The personal MBA: master the art of business / Josh Kaufman.
p. 厘米。
p. cm.
包括索引。
Includes index.
ISBN 978-1-59184-352-8 (hc.)
ISBN 978-1-59184-352-8 (hc.)
ISBN 978-1-59184-557-7 (pbk.)
ISBN 978-1-59184-557-7 (pbk.)
一、管理。2. 管理——学习与教学。3. 商业。4.商业。一、标题。
1. Management. 2. Management—Study and teaching. 3. Business. 4. Commerce. I. Title.
HD31.K343 2010
HD31.K343 2010
650—dc22 2010027919
650—dc22 2010027919
ISBN 9780525543022（贸易版）
ISBN 9780525543022 (trade edition)
ISBN 9780593418208（电子书）
ISBN 9780593418208 (ebook)
封面设计：Pete Garceau
Cover design: Pete Garceau
封面图片：Tom Nance / Shutterstock
Cover image: Tom Nance / Shutterstock
pid_prh_5.6.0_c0_r0
pid_prh_5.6.0_c0_r0
内容
CONTENTS
Introduction: Why Read This Book?
A Self-Directed Crash Course in Business
Should You Go to Business School?
Three Big Problems with Business Schools
What an MBA Will Actually Get You
Where Business Schools Came From
The Single Benefit of Business Schools
I Owe, I Owe—It’s Off to Work I Go
What You’ll Learn in This Book
The Five Parts of Every Business
The Hidden Benefits of Competition
Twelve Standard Forms of Value
Form of Value #3: Shared Resource
Form of Value #4: Subscription
Form of Value #8: Audience Aggregation
Intermediation and Disintermediation
The Pricing Uncertainty Principle
Three Dimensions of Negotiation
Four Methods to Increase Revenue
Interpretation and Reinterpretation
Excessive Self-Regard Tendency
Personal Research and Development
Appendix A: How to Continue Your Business Studies
关键术语
KEY TERMS
Allowable Acquisition Cost (AAC)
Excessive Self-Regard Tendency
Four Methods to Increase Revenue
Hidden Benefits of Competition
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Personal Research and Development (R&D)
Standard Operating Procedure (SOP)
Three Dimensions of Negotiation
读者须知
A NOTE TO THE READER
清晰的语言产生清晰的思想，而清晰的思想是教育最重要的好处。
Clear language engenders clear thought, and clear thought is the most important benefit of education.
——理查德·米切尔，学术之墓
—RICHARD MITCHELL, THE GRAVES OF ACADEME
许多人认为他们需要上商学院学习如何建立成功的企业或在他们的职业生涯中取得进步。这不是真的。绝大多数现代商业实践只需要常识、简单的算术和一些非常重要的思想和原则的知识。
Many people assume that they need to attend business school to learn how to build a successful business or advance in their career. That’s not true. The vast majority of modern business practice requires little more than common sense, simple arithmetic, and knowledge of a few very important ideas and principles.
Personal MBA是一本侧重于基础知识的基础商业书籍。其目的是让您在尽可能短的时间内清晰、全面地了解最重要的业务概念。
The Personal MBA is a foundational business book that focuses on the fundamentals. Its purpose is to give you a clear, comprehensive overview of the most important business concepts in as little time as possible.
本书中的每个想法都以通俗易懂的语言呈现。为了便于参考，突出显示了这些想法之间的联系。一旦您了解了基本要素，您就可以自由地专注于建立您的职业生涯，并确信您首先考虑的是最重要的事情。
Each idea in this book is presented in plain language. Connections between these ideas are highlighted for easy reference. Once you know the essentials, you’re free to focus on building your career, secure in the knowledge that you’re considering the most important matters first.
大多数“MBA 替代”书籍都试图复制顶级商学院课程的课程。这不是个人 MBA的重点。我的目标是帮助您从头开始对一般商业实践有一个扎实的理解，无论您目前的教育水平或商业经验如何。
Most “MBA alternative” books try to replicate the curricula of top-tier business-school programs. That’s not the focus of The Personal MBA. My aim is to help you build a solid understanding of general business practice from scratch, regardless of your current level of education or business experience.
你的时间很宝贵。我已经尽一切努力凝聚了一个大而将不同的主题编成一本通俗易懂的书，您可以在几个小时内阅读完。如果对特定主题的额外研究在您的情况下是谨慎的，您就会知道要寻找什么以及从哪里开始。
Your time is valuable. I’ve made every effort to condense a large and diverse topic into an approachable volume you can read in a few hours. If additional research into specific topics is prudent in your situation, you’ll know what to look for and where to begin.
知道在常见的业务情况下从哪里开始是很有价值的，无论您是职业生涯早期的专业人士、企业家、熟练的商人，还是拥有数十年经验的高管。有一种共同的语言来思考你所观察到的东西，无论你以什么为生，都会为重大改进打开大门。
Knowing where to start in common business situations is valuable, whether you’re an early-career professional, an entrepreneur, a skilled tradesperson, or an executive with decades of experience. Having a common language to think about what you observe opens the door to major improvements, no matter what you do for a living.
个人 MBA的修订和更新版包含许多新概念，使本书对基本思想的涵盖更加全面。此外，还进行了少量编辑以提高前两版中概念的清晰度，并添加了额外的索引功能以增强本书作为长期参考的价值。
This revised and updated edition of The Personal MBA features many new concepts that make the book’s coverage of fundamental ideas even more comprehensive. In addition, small edits have been made to improve the clarity of the concepts included in the first two editions, and additional index features have been added to enhance the book’s value as a long-term reference.
如果您将阅读本书与现实世界的经验结合起来，您将在余生中收获丰厚的回报。我希望这本书能帮助你赚更多的钱，完成更多的工作，并在这个过程中获得更多的乐趣。
If you combine reading this book with real-world experience, you’ll reap the rewards for the rest of your life. I hope this book helps you make more money, get more done, and have more fun in the process.
2020 年版序言
PREFACE TO THE 2020 EDITION
当理论上行得通的东西在实践中行得通时，这真是太好了。
It’s wonderful when something that works in theory works in practice.
十五年前，我开始了个人 MBA作为一个副项目。我想以一种直接、高效且具有成本效益的方式提高我的业务知识和技能。当我开始这个项目时，我专注于在一家大型跨国公司谋求职业生涯。我无意写书，也不知道我的研究会继续帮助全世界成千上万的人——并在此过程中改变我的人生轨迹。
Fifteen years ago, I started The Personal MBA as a side project. I wanted to improve my business knowledge and skills in a direct, efficient, and cost-effective way. When I started the project, I was focused on pursuing a career at a large, multinational company. I had no intention of writing a book and no way of knowing that my research would go on to help hundreds of thousands of people worldwide—and change the course of my life in the process.
Personal MBA让各行各业的读者——从刚进入劳动力市场的早期职业专业人士到熟练的商人、高管和企业家——更准确和实际地了解企业是什么、它们如何运作、如何创建一个新的从零开始的业务，以及如何改进任何现有的业务风险。
The Personal MBA has given readers from all walks of life—from early-career professionals just entering the workforce to skilled tradespeople, executives, and entrepreneurs—a more accurate and practical understanding of what businesses are, how they work, how to create a new business from scratch, and how to improve any existing business venture.
无论好坏，当成年人决定认真对待商业教育时，他们就会开始研究 MBA 课程。商业学位往往是一项糟糕的投资，但商业技能总是有用的，无论你如何获得它们。
For better or worse, when adults decide to get serious about business education, they start looking into MBA programs. Business degrees are often a poor investment, but business skills are always useful, no matter how you acquire them.
写书的最大乐趣之一就是听取以某种方式从中受益的读者的意见。在《个人》之后的十年里MBA首次出版时，我听说成千上万的读者使用本书中的概念开始盈利的业务，获得重大晋升，并改善他们的个人和职业生活。
One of the great pleasures of writing a book is hearing from readers who have benefitted from it in some way. In the ten years since The Personal MBA was first published, I’ve heard from thousands of readers who have used the concepts in this book to start profitable businesses, land major promotions, and improve their personal and professional lives.
住在德国柏林的德克决定自己学习商业，而不是去商学院：
Dirk, who lives in Berlin, Germany, decided to learn business on his own instead of attending business school:
个人 MBA使我免于 150,000 美元的错误，并让我对个人教育有了新的认识。2014 年，我对自己的企业生涯不再满意，我开始认真考虑去欧洲顶尖大学攻读 MBA。在我计划邮寄入学文件并发送第一笔付款的前两天，我阅读了个人 MBA . . . 我完全改变了主意。我没有背上沉重的债务，而是开始了个人教育之旅，以追求我想要的职业：与初创企业合作。我边旅行、参加会议和参加计划，边阅读每一本我能拿到手的书。我花费的成本和时间只是 MBA 的一小部分，但我找到了合适的人脉并了解了开始我的职业生涯所需的知识。在过去的五年里，我成功地经营着自己的公司，并且与三百多家初创企业合作过。
The Personal MBA saved me from a $150,000 mistake and gave me a new perspective on my personal education. In 2014, I was no longer happy with my corporate career, and I was seriously considering an MBA from a top European university. Two days before I was scheduled to mail my enrollment paperwork and send my first payment, I read The Personal MBA . . . and I completely changed my mind. Instead of going into severe debt, I went on a personal education journey to pursue my desired career: working with start-ups. I traveled, attended conferences, and participated in programs while reading every book I could get my hands on. At a fraction of the cost and time of an MBA, I made the right contacts and learned what I needed to start my career. I’ve been successfully running my own company for the past five years, and I’ve worked with over three hundred start-ups.
居住在英国的迈克尔用这本书来推进他的企业生涯：
Michael, who lives in the United Kingdom, used the book to advance his corporate career:
我从大学毕业，希望为工作做好准备。. . 而我不是。我将The Personal MBA视为持续学习的终极入门书。两年多来，我每月至少阅读一次。我今年 26 岁，在世界上最大的公司之一领导营销和产品管理团队。我是有史以来最年轻的领导席位。我最近将The Personal MBA传递给了加入团队的新毕业生。他从头到尾读了好几遍。现在，我从团队中听到很多反馈说他“比他的年龄更聪明”并且“知道如何提出正确的问题”。谢谢你，乔希。
I came out of university expecting to be prepared for work . . . and I was not. I see The Personal MBA as the ultimate primer for continual learning. I read it at least once a month for over two years. I’m currently twenty-six, and I’m leading marketing and product management teams for one of the largest companies in the world. I’m the youngest person ever to have a seat at the leadership table. I recently passed The Personal MBA to a new graduate who joined the team. He read it cover to cover several times. Now, I hear a lot of feedback from the team saying that he is “wise beyond his years” and “knows how to ask the right questions.” Thank you, Josh.
MR 使用这本书管理数百名员工并为斯里兰卡的数百万人提供基本服务：
M. R. uses the book to manage hundreds of employees and deliver essential services to millions of people in Sri Lanka:
三年前，我从马来西亚的一家书摊购买了The Personal MBA 。我没有 MBA 学位，但我正在练习从您的书中学到的管理技巧。我已经使用你关于系统的想法来控制价值超过 2000 万美元的库存并确保物料的顺畅流动。此外，我还指导一个团队开发了一个客户支持系统，该系统目前已惠及 620 万客户，并且我们已经确定了 2,000 多个业务流程要在新的企业资源规划系统中实施。恭喜，并感谢您为全球数百万经理人的利益所做的辛勤工作。
I purchased The Personal MBA from a bookstall in Malaysia three years ago. I do not have an MBA, but I am practicing management techniques I learned from your book. I have used your ideas about systems to control over $20 million worth of inventory and ensure a smooth flow of materials. In addition, I guided a team to develop a customer support system that is now benefitting 6.2 million customers, and we have identified over 2,000 business processes to implement in a new Enterprise Resource Planning system. Congratulations, and thank you for the hard work you are doing for the benefit of millions of managers around the world.
美国明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯市的伊丽莎白正在将这些想法应用到她的个人生活中：
Elizabeth in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA is applying these ideas in her personal life:
我从没想过没有大学教育我能变得这么聪明。您向我展示了如何增加我的知识并将这些知识付诸实践，并且您教会了我如果我认真对待它，几乎可以在任何事情上取得成功。我指导四个孩子，并将您的遗产传给他们。我非常感谢你的工作。
I never thought I could become so smart without a college education. You showed me how to increase my knowledge and put that knowledge into practice, and you taught me how to succeed at nearly anything if I’m serious about it. I mentor four children, and I’m passing your legacy on to them. I’m very grateful for your work.
这些故事并不是独一无二的：世界各地成千上万的读者正在使用个人 MBA中的想法来推进他们的职业生涯，改善他们的生活，并让世界变得更美好。
These stories are not unique: hundreds of thousands of readers around the world are using the ideas in The Personal MBA to advance in their careers, improve their lives, and make the world a better place.
很荣幸向您介绍这一基本知识体系，它将在您的余生中为您提供良好的服务。学习这些概念可以更轻松地完成出色的工作，做出正确的决定，并充分利用您的技能、能力和可用的机会——无论您做什么（或想做什么）谋生。
It’s an honor to introduce you to this essential body of knowledge, which will serve you well for the rest of your life. Learning these concepts makes it easier to do great work, make good decisions, and take full advantage of your skills, abilities, and available opportunities—no matter what you do (or would like to do) for a living.
感谢您阅读个人 MBA十周年扩充和修订版。我希望这本书对你的事业有所帮助，祝你一切顺利。
Thank you for reading this expanded and revised tenth anniversary edition of The Personal MBA. I hope you find this book useful in your pursuits, and I wish you every success.
乔什·考夫曼
Josh Kaufman
美国科罗拉多州柯林斯堡
Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
九月2020
September 2020
介绍
Introduction
为什么要读这本书？
WHY READ THIS BOOK?
正是世界所需要的——又一本商业书籍！
Just what the world needs—another business book!
—约翰·F·肯尼迪国际机场的美国海关代理人，在询问了我的职业后
—US CUSTOMS AGENT AT JOHN F. KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, AFTER ASKING ABOUT MY OCCUPATION
生活很艰难。如果你是愚蠢的，那就更难了。
Life’s tough. It’s tougher if you’re stupid.
——约翰·韦恩，西部片偶像
—JOHN WAYNE, WESTERN FILM ICON
既然你正在阅读这本书，你很可能想要让一些重要的事情发生：你想要开始一项业务，获得晋升，或者在世界上创造新事物。也有可能是一件或多件事情阻碍了您实现梦想：
Since you’re reading this book, chances are you want to make something important happen: you want to start a business, get a promotion, or create something new in the world. It’s also likely that one or more things are holding you back from achieving your dream:
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商业焦虑——你“对商业知之甚少”的感觉，因此永远无法创办自己的公司或在当前职位上承担更多责任。与其直面对未知的恐惧，不如维持现状。
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Business angst—the feeling that you “don’t know much about business” and therefore could never start your own company or take more responsibility in your current position. Better to maintain the status quo than face your fear of the unknown.
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认证恐吓——“业务很复杂”的想法，最好留给训练有素的“专家”。如果您没有 MBA 或类似的昂贵证书，您凭什么说您知道该怎么做？
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Certification intimidation—the idea that “business is complicated” and is a subject best left to trained “experts.” If you don’t have an MBA or similar expensive credentials, who are you to say you know what to do?
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冒名顶替综合症——害怕你已经“不知所措”，你迟早会被揭露为一个彻头彻尾的骗子。没有人喜欢假货，对吧？
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Impostor syndrome—the fear that you’re already “in over your head” and it’s only a matter of time before you’re unmasked as a total fraud. No one likes a phony, right?
好消息是：每个人都有这些毫无根据的恐惧，而且很正常。不要让他们阻止你追求对你来说重要的事情。企业是由像您一样的普通人创建、经营和改进的；没有涉及魔法或秘密知识。您需要做的就是学习一些简单的概念，这些概念将改变您对企业运作方式的看法，并让您发现有前途的机会。
Here’s the good news: everyone has these unfounded fears, and they’re normal. Don’t let them hold you back from pursuing what’s important to you. Businesses are created, operated, and improved by ordinary people just like you; there’s no magic or secret knowledge involved. All you need to do is learn a few simple concepts that will change the way you think about how businesses work and allow you to identify promising opportunities.
如果你是一名企业家、学生、商人、行政人员或专业人士，想要掌握良好商业实践的基础知识，那么这本书就是为你准备的。无论您是谁或想做什么，您都将发现一种有用的看待业务的新方法，这将帮助您花更少的时间与恐惧作斗争，而将更多的时间用于做出改变的事情。
If you’re an entrepreneur, student, tradesperson, executive, or professional who wants to master the fundamentals of sound business practice, this book is for you. No matter who you are or what you’re trying to do, you’re about to discover a useful new way of looking at business that will help you spend less time fighting your fears and more time doing things that make a difference.
你不需要知道这一切
You Don’t Need to Know It All
至于方法，可能有上百万甚至更多，但原则很少。把握原则的人可以成功地选择自己的方法。尝试方法而忽视原则的人肯定会遇到麻烦。
As to methods, there may be a million and then some, but principles are few. The man who grasps principles can successfully select his own methods. The man who tries methods, ignoring principles, is sure to have trouble.
—HARRINGTON EMERSON，管理顾问和效率专家1
—HARRINGTON EMERSON, MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT AND EFFICIENCY EXPERT1
学习任何学科最重要的事情之一是您不需要了解所有内容——您需要了解一小部分提供大部分价值的重要概念。一旦你有了一个坚实的核心原则框架，你就可以更容易地积累知识和取得进步。
One of the most important things about learning any subject is the fact that you don’t need to know everything—you need to understand a small set of important concepts that provide most of the value. Once you have a solid scaffold of core principles to work from, building upon your knowledge and making progress becomes much easier.
个人 MBA是一组基本的商业概念，您可以使用它来完成工作。了解这些基本原则将为您提供一套可以用来做出正确决策的工具。如果你投入必要的时间和精力来学习这些概念，那么在了解这些概念方面，你将跻身于人口中前 1% 的行列
The Personal MBA is a set of foundational business concepts you can use to get things done. Understanding these fundamental principles will give you a set of tools you can rely on to make good decisions. If you invest the time and energy necessary to learn these concepts, you’ll be in the top 1 percent of the human population when it comes to knowing
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企业实际如何运作，
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How businesses actually work,
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如何开始一项新业务，
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How to start a new business,
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如何改进现有业务，以及
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How to improve an existing business, and
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如何使用与业务相关的技能来实现您的个人目标。
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How to use business-related skills to accomplish your personal goals.
将本书视为过滤器。与其试图吸收所有现有的商业信息——而且有很多——不如使用这本书来帮助您了解最重要的事情，这样您就可以专注于重要的事情：让事情发生。
Think of this book as a filter. Instead of trying to absorb all of the business information that’s out there—and there’s a lot out there—use this book to help you learn what matters most, so you can focus on what’s important: making things happen.
无需经验
No Experience Necessary
人们总是高估业务的复杂程度。这不是火箭科学——我们选择了世界上最简单的职业之一。
People always overestimate how complex business is. This isn’t rocket science—we’ve chosen one of the world’s most simple professions.
——杰克·韦尔奇，通用电气公司前首席执行官
—JACK WELCH, FORMER CEO OF GENERAL ELECTRIC
如果您是一个完全的初学者，请不要担心。与许多其他商业书籍不同，本书不需要任何先前的商业知识或经验。我不认为你是一家每天都要做出数百万美元决策的大公司的首席执行官——但如果你是，这本书仍然有用。
Don’t worry if you’re a complete beginner. Unlike many other business books, this book does not require any prior business knowledge or experience. I don’t assume you’re the CEO of a large company who makes multimillion-dollar decisions on a daily basis—but this book will still be useful if you are.
如果你确实有商业经验，从我的许多客户和世界各地的读者那里获得经验，他们拥有顶尖学校的 MBA 学位——你会发现本书中的信息比你获得学位所学的任何东西都更有价值和实用。
If you do have business experience, take it from many of my clients and readers from around the world who have MBAs from top schools—you’ll find the information in this book more valuable and practical than anything you learned earning your degree.
我们将一起探索 271 个简单的概念，它们将帮助您以一种全新且有用的方式思考业务。读完本书，你会对企业到底是什么，成功的企业究竟做了什么，会有更全面、更准确的理解。
Together, we’ll explore 271 simple concepts that will help you think about business in a new and useful way. After reading this book, you’ll have a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of what businesses actually are and what successful businesses actually do.
问题，而不是答案
Questions, Not Answers
教育不是问题的答案。教育是回答所有问题的手段。
Education is not the answer to the question. Education is the means to the answer to all questions.
—BILL ALLIN，社会学家和教育活动家
—BILL ALLIN, SOCIOLOGIST AND EDUCATION ACTIVIST
大多数商业书籍都试图教你获得更多答案：一种技术，一种方法。这本书是不同的。它不会给你答案——它将帮助您提出更好的问题。了解每项业务的重要性是做出良好业务决策的第一步。您对当前情况下要问的基本问题了解得越多，您就能越快找到前进所需的答案。
Most business books attempt to teach you to have more answers: a technique for this, a method for that. This book is different. It won’t give you answers—it will help you ask better questions. Knowing what’s important in every business is the first step in making good business decisions. The more you know about the essential questions to ask in your current situation, the faster you’ll be able to find the answers you need to move forward.
心智模型，而非方法
Mental Models, Not Methods
我的语言的界限就是我的世界的界限。
The limits of my language are the limits of my world.
——路德维希·维特根斯坦，哲学家和逻辑学家
—LUDWIG WITTGENSTEIN, PHILOSOPHER AND LOGICIAN
要提高您的业务技能，您无需学习所有知识——掌握基础知识可以让您走得更远。我将这些基本业务概念称为“心智模型”，它们共同创建了一个坚实的框架，您可以依靠它来做出正确的决策。
To improve your business skills, you don’t need to learn everything there is to know—mastering the fundamentals can take you far. I call these foundational business concepts “mental models,” and together, they create a solid framework you can rely on to make good decisions.
心智模型是代表您对世界上某些事物如何运作的理解的概念。想一想开车：当您踩下右侧踏板时，您会想到什么？如果汽车减速，您会感到惊讶——那个踏板应该是加速器。你的世界模型的准确性决定了你的期望、决定、行为，以及——从长远来看——你的结果。
Mental models are concepts that represent your understanding of how something in the world works. Think of driving a car: What do you expect when you press down on the right-side pedal? If the car slows down, you’ll be surprised—that pedal is supposed to be the accelerator. The accuracy of your model of the world determines your expectations, decisions, behavior, and—in the long run—your results.
你的大脑通过注意你每天经历的模式来形成心智模型。然而，很多时候，你自己形成的心智模型并不准确——你只是一个人，所以你的知识和经验是有限的。教育是一种通过内化他人一生中收集的知识和经验，使您的心智模型更加准确的方法。最好的教育可以帮助你学会以一种新的、更有成效的方式看世界。
Your brain forms mental models by noticing patterns in what you experience each day. Very often, however, the mental models you form on your own aren’t accurate—you’re only one person, so your knowledge and experiences are limited. Education is a way to make your mental models more accurate by internalizing the knowledge and experiences other people have collected throughout their lives. The best education helps you learn to see the world in a new, more productive way.
例如，许多人认为“创业有风险”、“要开始，你必须制定详细的商业计划并借很多钱”或“商业在于你认识谁，而不是你知道什么。 ” 这些短语中的每一个都是一种心理模型，但它们并不十分准确。纠正你的思维模式可以帮助你以清晰、全面的方式思考你正在做的事情，这将帮助你做出更好的决定。
For example, many people believe things like “Starting a business is risky,” “To get started, you must create a detailed business plan and borrow a lot of money,” or “Business is about who you know, not what you know.” Each of these phrases is a mental model, but they’re not quite accurate. Correcting your mental models can help you think about what you’re doing in a clear, comprehensive way, which will help you make better decisions.
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心智模型不准确 INACCURATE MENTAL MODEL |
准确的心智模型 ACCURATE MENTAL MODEL |
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创业是有风险的。 Starting a business is risky. |
不确定性是业务中始终存在但可管理的一部分，并且可以将风险降至最低。 Uncertainty is an ever-present but manageable part of business, and risks can be minimized. |
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为了创建一个成功的企业，您必须首先编写一个完美的商业计划。 In order to create a successful business, you must write a flawless business plan first. |
书面计划比了解您的业务的关键功能次要，无论您准备多少，一路上总会有惊喜。 A written plan is secondary to understanding the critical functions of your business, and no matter how much you prepare, there will always be surprises along the way. |
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在开始建立业务之前，您必须筹集大量资金。 You must raise large amounts of capital before you start building your business. |
只有当它能让你完成一些否则不可能完成的事情（比如建工厂）时，才需要筹集资金。 Raising money is necessary only if it allows you to accomplish something that would otherwise be impossible (like building a factory). |
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重要的不是你知道什么，而是你认识谁。 It’s not what you know, it’s who you know. |
人际关系很重要，但如果您想充分利用这些关系，知识是关键。 Personal connections are important, but knowledge is key if you want to use those connections to your best advantage. |
在学习了本书中的心智模型之后，我的许多读者已经意识到他们对企业是什么以及企业如何运作的描述是不准确的——让他们的企业起步比他们最初想象的要容易得多。与其浪费宝贵的时间和精力感到害怕和惊慌失措，不如学习这些概念让他们自由地停止担心并开始取得进步。
After learning the mental models in this book, many of my readers have realized that their picture of what businesses are and how businesses work was inaccurate—getting their venture off the ground would be far easier than they originally imagined. Instead of wasting valuable time and energy feeling intimidated and freaking out, learning these concepts gave them the freedom to stop worrying and start making progress.
这本书将帮助你学习商业的基本原则，这样你就可以把时间和精力集中在做有用的事情上：创造有价值的东西、吸引注意力、完成更多的销售、服务更多的客户、获得晋升、赚更多的钱、改变世界。您不仅能够为他人创造更多价值并改善自己的财务状况，而且您还将在此过程中获得更多乐趣。
This book will help you learn the fundamental principles of business so you can focus your time and energy on doing useful things: creating something valuable, attracting attention, closing more sales, serving more customers, getting promoted, making more money, changing the world. Not only will you be able to create more value for others and improve your own financial situation, you’ll have more fun along the way.
我的个人工商管理硕士
My Personal MBA
我坚信，自我教育是唯一的教育方式。
Self-education is, I firmly believe, the only kind of education there is.
——艾萨克·阿西莫夫 (ISAAC ASIMOV)，前波士顿大学生物化学教授，着有五百多本书
—ISAAC ASIMOV, FORMER PROFESSOR OF BIOCHEMISTRY AT BOSTON UNIVERSITY AND AUTHOR OF MORE THAN FIVE HUNDRED BOOKS
本节将个人 MBA 的历史描述为一个项目。你可能会发现这个背景很有用，但本书的主要价值与我的个人背景无关。如果您想了解业务概念，请随时跳至此页面。
This section describes the history of the Personal MBA as a project. You may find this context useful, but the primary value of this book is independent of my personal background. If you’d like to get to the business concepts, feel free to skip ahead to this page.
人们经常问我是否拥有 MBA 学位。“没有，”我回答，“但我确实上过商学院。”
People often ask me if I have an MBA. “No,” I reply, “but I did go to business school.”
作为辛辛那提大学的一名学生，我有幸参加了 Carl H. Lindner Honors-PLUS 项目，该项目类似于本科阶段的 MBA。该项目是通过奖学金资助的，因此我有机会在没有沉重债务负担的情况下体验商学院教授的大部分内容。
As a student at the University of Cincinnati, I was fortunate enough to participate in the Carl H. Lindner Honors-PLUS program, which resembles an MBA at the undergraduate level. The program was funded via scholarships, and as a result I had the remarkable opportunity to experience most of what business schools teach without the crippling burden of debt.
我也一直走在企业成功的快车道上。通过辛辛那提大学的合作办学项目，我在大学二年级时获得了财富500 强公司宝洁公司的管理职位。到我 2005 年毕业时，我得到了宝洁家庭护理部门的助理品牌经理职位，这是为顶级 MBA 课程的毕业生保留的职位。
I’ve also been on the fast track to corporate success. Through the University of Cincinnati’s cooperative education program, I landed a management position at a Fortune 500 company—Procter & Gamble—during my second year of college. By the time I graduated in 2005, I had an offer to become an assistant brand manager in P&G’s Home Care division, a role reserved for graduates of top MBA programs.
当我开始上大学的最后一个学期时，我开始较少关注我的课程作业，而更多地关注未来。我的新工作需要对商业有扎实的了解，而且我几乎所有的同事和经理都拥有一流学校的 MBA 学位。我曾短暂地考虑过参加 MBA 课程，但是为了获得我已经拥有的那种工作而追求昂贵的证书是没有意义的，而且我的职责要求足够高，而无需通过参加兼职课程来增加课程负担.
As I began my last semester of college, I started focusing less on my coursework and more on the future. My new job would require a solid understanding of business, and almost all of my peers and managers would have MBAs from top-tier schools. I briefly considered enrolling in an MBA program, but it made no sense to pursue an expensive credential to get the kind of job I already had, and my responsibilities would be demanding enough without adding a load of coursework by enrolling in a part-time program.
在考虑我的选择时，我想起了安迪沃尔特给我的一些职业建议，他是我在宝洁公司的第一任副总监，他曾给我这样的建议：“如果你投入与完成 MBA 相同的时间和精力，那么做好工作并提高你的技能，你会做到的一样好。（安迪没有 MBA 学位——他在大学学习电气工程。他退休时是公司的全球顶级 IT 高管之一，负责领导宝洁的许多最大项目。）
While considering my options, I remembered a bit of career advice that Andy Walter, the first associate director I reported to at P&G, had given me: “If you put the same amount of time and energy you’d spend completing an MBA into doing good work and improving your skills, you’ll do just as well.” (Andy doesn’t have an MBA—he studied electrical engineering in college. He retired as one of the company’s top global IT executives, responsible for leading many of P&G’s largest projects.)
最后，我决定跳过商学院，而不是商业教育。我没有参加 MBA 课程，而是读书，创建了自己的个人 MBA。
In the end, I decided to skip business school, but not business education. Instead of enrolling in an MBA program, I hit the books, creating my own personal MBA.
商业自学速成班
A Self-Directed Crash Course in Business
许多自学成才的人远远超过最著名大学的博士、硕士和学士。
Many who are self-taught far excel the doctors, masters, and bachelors of the most renowned universities.
—路德维希·冯·米塞斯，奥地利经济学家和《人类行为》一书的作者
—LUDWIG VON MISES, AUSTRIAN ECONOMIST AND AUTHOR OF HUMAN ACTION
我一直是一个狂热的读者，但在我决定尽我所能学习商业知识之前，我读的大部分都是小说。我在新伦敦长大，这是俄亥俄州北部的一个农场小镇，那里的主要产业是农业和轻工业。我的母亲是一名图书管理员，我的父亲是一名六年级的科学老师，然后是一名小学校长。书籍是我生活的重要组成部分，但商业不是。
I’ve always been an avid reader, but before I decided to learn everything I could about business, most of what I read was fiction. I grew up in New London, a small farm town in northern Ohio where the major industries are agriculture and light manufacturing. My mother worked as a librarian, and my father was a sixth-grade science teacher, then an elementary school principal. Books were a major part of my life, but business was not.
在我找到第一份真正的工作之前，我对什么是企业或它们如何运作几乎一无所知，只知道它们是人们每天为了领取薪水而去的地方。在我申请这份让我进入企业界的工作之前，我不知道像宝洁这样的公司存在。
Before getting my first real job, I knew next to nothing about what businesses were or how they functioned, other than that they were places people went every day in order to draw a paycheck. I had no idea that companies like Procter & Gamble existed until I applied for the job that swept me into the corporate world.
为宝洁工作本身就是一种教育。企业的规模和范围——以及管理这种规模企业的复杂性——让我感到困惑。在公司的头三年里，我参与了业务流程各个部分的决策：开发新产品、提高产量、分配数百万美元的营销资金，以及确保与沃尔玛、塔吉特、克罗格等主要零售商的分销好市多。
Working for P&G was an education in itself. The size and scope of the business—and the complexity of managing a business of that size—boggled my mind. During my first three years with the company, I participated in making decisions across every part of the business process: creating new products, ramping up production, allocating millions of marketing dollars, and securing distribution with major retailers like Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Costco.
作为一名助理品牌经理，我领导着由 30 到 40 名宝洁员工、承包商和代理人员组成的团队——他们都有相互竞争的项目、计划和优先事项。赌注巨大，压力很大很激烈。直到今天，制作一瓶简单的洗洁精出现在当地超市货架上所需要的数千工时、数百万美元和复杂的工艺，我都忍不住惊叹。从瓶子的形状到产品的气味，一切都经过优化——包括用于将库存运送到商店的纸板箱上的文字。
As an assistant brand manager, I was leading teams of thirty to forty P&G employees, contractors, and agency staff—all of whom had competing projects, plans, and priorities. The stakes were huge, and the pressure was intense. To this day, I can’t help but marvel at the thousands of man-hours, the millions of dollars, and the complex processes necessary to make a simple bottle of dish soap appear on the shelf of the local supermarket. Everything from the shape of the bottle to the scent of the product is optimized—including the text on the cardboard boxes used to ship inventory to the store.
然而，我在 P&G 的工作并不是我唯一的想法。我决定跳过商学院转而接受自我教育，这从一个业余项目发展成了一种小癖好。每天我都会花几个小时阅读和研究，寻找更多的知识来帮助我更好地理解商业世界的运作方式。
My work at P&G, however, wasn’t the only thing on my mind. My decision to skip business school in favor of educating myself developed from a side project into a minor obsession. Every day I would spend hour after hour reading and researching, searching for one more tidbit of knowledge that would help me to better understand how the business world worked.
我没有利用毕业后的暑假去放松和度假，而是整天在当地书店的书架上闲逛，尽可能多地吸收知识。到 2005 年 9 月我正式开始为宝洁全职工作时，我已经阅读了涵盖商学院教授的各个学科以及大多数商学院没有详细涵盖的学科的书籍，例如心理学、物理科学、和系统理论。当我在宝洁的第一天终于到来时，我觉得自己已经准备好了。
Instead of using the summer after graduation to relax and go on vacation, I spent my days haunting the business stacks at the local bookstore, absorbing as much as I could. By the time I officially started working full-time for P&G in September 2005, I had read books spanning every discipline that business schools teach, as well as disciplines that most business schools don’t cover in detail, such as psychology, physical science, and systems theory. When my first day at P&G finally arrived, I felt prepared.
事实证明，我的自我教育对我很有帮助——我在做有价值的工作，让事情发生，并获得良好的年度评估。然而，随着时间的推移，我意识到三件非常重要的事情：
As it turned out, my self-education served me well—I was doing valuable work, making things happen, and getting good annual reviews. As time went on, however, I realized three very important things:
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大公司动作慢。好的想法往往会半途而废，因为它们必须得到太多人的认可。
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Large companies move slowly. Good ideas often died on the vine because they had to be approved by too many people.
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攀登公司阶梯是成就伟大事业的障碍。我想专注于完成工作并使事情变得更好，而不是起草备忘录、参加会议以及为晋升定位自己。政治和地盘之争是在大公司工作的日常经历中不可避免的一部分。
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Climbing the corporate ladder is an obstacle to doing great work. I wanted to focus on getting things done and making things better, not drafting memos, sitting in meetings, and positioning myself for promotion. Politics and turf wars are an inescapable part of the daily experience of working for a large company.
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沮丧会导致倦怠。我想享受每天的工作体验，但我却觉得自己每天都在经受挑战。它开始影响我的健康、幸福和人际关系。我在企业界待的时间越长，我就越意识到自己想要退出。我想决定要做什么，和谁一起工作，以及优先考虑什么——让创业成为我长期的最佳途径。
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Frustration leads to burnout. I wanted to enjoy the daily experience of work, but instead I felt like I was running a gauntlet each day. It began to affect my health, happiness, and relationships. The longer I stayed in the corporate world, the more I realized I wanted out. I wanted to decide what to work on, who to work with, and what to prioritize—making entrepreneurship the best path for me long-term.
小麦和谷壳
The Wheat and the Chaff
重要的是，学生要在学习中带上某种衣衫褴褛、赤脚的不敬；他们来这里不是为了崇拜已知的东西，而是为了质疑它。
It is important that students bring a certain ragamuffin, barefoot irreverence to their studies; they are not here to worship what is known, but to question it.
—JACOB BRONOWSKI，《人类崛起》的作者和主持人
—JACOB BRONOWSKI, WRITER AND PRESENTER OF THE ASCENT OF MAN
如果说我擅长一件事，那就是吸收大量信息并将其提炼成要点。即便如此，筛选大量可用的商业信息仍然是一项巨大的挑战：每年都会出版数以千计的新商业书籍，商业期刊、杂志和网站每天都会发布新的研究成果。这些信息中有些是有用的，但大部分是无用的。
If there’s one thing I’m good at, it’s taking in an enormous amount of information and distilling it to the essentials. Even so, sifting through the massive amount of business information available was a huge challenge: thousands of new business books are published every year, and business periodicals, journals, and websites publish new research daily. Some of this information is useful, but most of it is not.
我早期的商业研究是随意的——我去书店挑选任何看起来有趣的书。对于我发现的每一本好书，我都不得不阅读十倍于作者所写的低质量文本，这些作者对制作一张三百页的名片比提供有用的信息更感兴趣。
My early business research was haphazard—I went to a bookstore and picked up any book that looked interesting. For every great book I found, I had to wade through ten times as many low-quality texts written by authors who were more interested in creating a three-hundred-page business card than providing useful information.
我开始想知道到底有多少东西——而且有很多——我真的需要知道。我怎样才能从垃圾中分离出有价值的信息？我只有那么多时间和精力，所以我开始寻找一个过滤器：一些可以引导我获得有用知识并让我远离谷壳的东西。我搜索得越多，就越意识到它不存在——所以我决定自己创建它。
I started to wonder how much of what’s out there—and there’s a lot out there—I really needed to know. How could I separate the valuable information from the rubbish? I only had so much time and energy, so I started searching for a filter: something that would direct me to the useful knowledge and keep me away from the chaff. The more I searched, the more I realized it didn’t exist—so I decided to create it myself.
我开始跟踪哪些资源有价值，哪些资源没有价值，然后将我的发现发布在我的网站上，既作为档案，也为了任何感兴趣的人的利益。这是一个个人项目，仅此而已：我只是一名刚毕业的大学生，尽我最大的努力学习一些有用的东西，为他人发表我的研究成果似乎是对时间和精力的一种很好的利用。
I began tracking which resources were valuable and which ones weren’t, then publishing my findings on my website, both as an archive and for the benefit of anyone interested. It was a personal project, nothing more: I was just a recent college graduate doing my best to learn something useful, and publishing my research for others seemed like a good use of time and energy.
然而，在一个决定性的早晨，个人 MBA 项目公开了——并且不仅仅是一个个人项目。
One fateful morning, however, the Personal MBA went public—and became much more than a personal project.
个人 MBA 走向全球
The Personal MBA Goes Global
谁能最好地描述问题，谁就是最有可能解决问题的人。
Whoever best describes the problem is the one most likely to solve it.
——DAN ROAM，餐巾纸背面的作者
—DAN ROAM, AUTHOR OF THE BACK OF THE NAPKIN
除了读书之外，我还关注了数百个商业博客。一些最好的商业思想在出现之前的几个月（或几年）就已经在互联网上发布了，我想一看到它就把它全部读完。
In addition to reading books, I was following several hundred business blogs. Some of the best business thinking was being published on the internet months (or years) before it ever appeared in print, and I wanted to read it all as soon as it was available.
我关注的其中一位博主是 Seth Godin。作为畅销书作者（如Permission Marketing、Purple Cow和Linchpin等书籍）和最早成功的在线营销人员之一，Seth 擅长大胆陈述大创意，旨在挑战你做得更多、做得更好、质疑现状，以及做出改变。
One of the bloggers I followed was Seth Godin. A bestselling author (of books like Permission Marketing, Purple Cow, and Linchpin) and one of the earliest successful online marketers, Seth specializes in bold statements of big ideas designed to challenge you to do more, do better, question the status quo, and make a difference.
一个特定的早晨，赛斯正在评论最近的一则新闻报道：哈佛取消了 119 名之前即将成为哈佛 MBA 学生的录取。2这些未来的学生发现了一种在正式录取通知书发出之前侵入哈佛招生网站以查看他们的申请状态的方法。这个故事成为媒体的狂热话题，并演变成一场关于 MBA 学生是否倾向于撒谎、欺骗和偷窃，或者是否商学院让他们这样的争论。
One particular morning, Seth was commenting on a recent news story: Harvard was rescinding the admission of 119 previously soon-to-be Harvard MBA students.2 These prospective students had discovered a way to hack into the Harvard admissions website to view their application status before the official acceptance letters went out. The story became a media frenzy, devolving into a debate about whether MBA students were predisposed to lie, cheat, and steal, or if business schools made them that way.
赛斯并没有对申请人的不良行为感到愤怒，而是有不同的看法：哈佛正在给这些学生一份礼物。通过取消他们的入学许可，该大学退还了 150,000 美元和他们两年的生命，否则他们将花费在追逐一张纸上。“我很难理解，”他写道，“为什么 [获得 MBA] 比实际经验加上专门阅读 30 或 40 本书更好地利用时间和金钱。”
Instead of being outraged at the bad behavior of the applicants, Seth had a different perspective: Harvard was giving these students a gift. By rescinding their admission, the university was returning $150,000 and two years of their lives that would otherwise have been spent chasing a piece of paper. “It’s hard for me to understand,” he wrote, “why [getting an MBA] is a better use of time and money than actual experience combined with a dedicated reading of 30 or 40 books.”
我经历了一段意想不到的验证，然后开始工作。
I experienced a moment of unexpected validation, then got to work.
在接下来的两天里，我列出了我在学习中发现最有价值的书籍和资源的清单，3然后将其发布在我的网站上，并附有 Seth 帖子的链接，因此任何有兴趣了解如何按照 Seth 的建议去做的人就能找到它。完成后，我给赛斯发了一封电子邮件，附上感谢信和我的帖子的链接。
Over the next two days, I created a list of the books and resources I had found most valuable in my studies,3 then published it on my website with a link to Seth’s post, so anyone interested in figuring out how to do what Seth suggested would be able to find it. When it was done, I sent Seth an email with a note of thanks and a link to my post.
两分钟后，Seth 的博客上发布了一篇帖子，引导人们访问我的阅读清单，来自世界各地的大量读者开始访问我的网站。
Two minutes later, a post went up on Seth’s blog directing people to my reading list, and a flood of readers from around the world began visiting my website.
流行的个人发展和生产力博客和 Lifehacker 等网站报道了这个故事，然后传播到社交媒体网站和各种个人博客。在个人 MBA 推出的第一周，有三万人访问了我的互联网小角落，想看看我在做什么。更好的是，他们开始交谈。
Popular personal-development and productivity blogs and sites like Lifehacker picked up the story, which then spread to social media websites and a wide variety of personal blogs. In the first week of the Personal MBA’s existence, thirty thousand people visited my little corner of the internet to see what I was doing. Better yet, they started talking.
一些读者提出问题——他们应该从哪里开始？其他人推荐了他们读过的好书，帮助我进行研究。一些人告诉我整个项目很天真，我在浪费时间。通过这一切，我在业余时间继续阅读、研究和开发个人 MBA，商业自学运动开始滚雪球。
Some readers asked questions—where should they start? Others suggested great books they’d read, helping me with my research. A few told me the entire project was naive and that I was wasting my time. Through it all, I kept reading, researching, and developing the Personal MBA in my spare time, and the business self-education movement began to snowball.
在很短的时间内，个人 MBA 从一个单人项目发展成为一种全球现象。该网站 personalmba.com 自 2005 年初上线以来已有数百万读者访问，该项目已被《纽约时报》、《华尔街日报》、 《彭博商业周刊》 、《金融时报》、 《时代》 、《财富》、Fast Company以及数百个其他主要新闻机构和独立网站。2008 年底，我离开了宝洁公司，全职专注于研究、写作和改进个人 MBA 课程。
In a very short time, the Personal MBA grew from a one-man side project into a global phenomenon. The site, personalmba.com, has been visited by millions of readers since it went live in early 2005, and the project has been featured by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg Businessweek, the Financial Times, Time, Fortune, Fast Company, and hundreds of other major news organizations and independent websites. In late 2008, I left P&G to focus on research, writing, and improving the Personal MBA full-time.
尽管我很享受对阅读清单的兴趣，但我很快意识到提供阅读清单是不够的。人们阅读商业书籍是为了解决特定的挑战或以某种切实的方式提高自己。他们正在寻找解决方案，而一份书籍清单虽然很有价值，但作用有限。
As much as I enjoyed the interest in my reading list, I soon realized that providing a reading list wasn’t enough. People read business books to solve specific challenges or to improve themselves in some tangible way. They’re looking for solutions, and a list of books—while valuable—could only do so much.
书籍本身并不像它们所包含的思想和知识那么重要，但我的许多读者都错过了，因为翻页要花费数小时才能找到好东西。很多读者一开始就满怀热情，读了几本书就放弃了——收获时间太长，工作和家庭生活的需要也让很多读者无法完成这个项目。
The books themselves aren’t as important as the ideas and knowledge they contain, but many of my readers were missing out because it took hours of turning pages to get to the good stuff. Many readers started with enthusiasm, only to quit after reading a few books—it took too long to reap the rewards, and the demands of work and family life prevented many readers from completing the project.
为了帮助他们，我有更多的工作要做。
To help them, I had more work to do.
芒格的心智模型
Munger’s Mental Models
我认为人脑在模型中运作是不可否认的事实。诀窍是让你的大脑比其他人的大脑工作得更好，因为它了解最基本的模型——那些做最多工作的模型。
I think it’s undeniably true that the human brain works in models. The trick is to have your brain work better than the other person’s brain because it understands the most fundamental models—the ones that do the most work.
——查尔斯·芒格，沃伦·巴菲特的亿万富翁商业伙伴，韦斯科金融公司前首席执行官，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司副董事长
—CHARLES T. MUNGER, BILLIONAIRE BUSINESS PARTNER OF WARREN BUFFETT, FORMER CEO OF WESCO FINANCIAL, AND VICE-CHAIRMAN OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY
当我发现查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 的著作时，我第一次瞥见了个人 MBA 的未来。
My first glimpse into the future of the Personal MBA came when I discovered the work of Charlie Munger.
查理出生于内布拉斯加州的奥马哈，就在大萧条之前。作为一个年轻人，查理为了满足他对世界运作方式的强烈好奇心而放弃了高中体育运动而喜欢阅读。他早期的商业经历包括在一家家庭经营的杂货店工作，每天收入 2 美元。
Charlie was born in Omaha, Nebraska, just before the Great Depression. As a young man, Charlie skipped high school athletics in favor of reading to satisfy his intense curiosity about how the world worked. His early business experience consisted of working in a family-owned grocery store for $2 a day.
1941 年，查理高中毕业。在密歇根大学本科学习数学和物理两年后，他加入了美国陆军航空队，在那里他接受了气象学家的培训。1946 年，离开军队后，他被哈佛大学法学院录取，尽管他从未获得当时不需要的学士学位。
In 1941, Charlie graduated from high school. After two years of studying undergraduate mathematics and physics at the University of Michigan, he enlisted in the US Army Air Corps, where he was trained as a meteorologist. In 1946, after leaving the army, he was accepted to Harvard Law School, even though he had never earned a bachelor’s degree, which wasn’t required at the time.
查理于 1948 年从哈佛法学院毕业，并在接下来的 17 年里成为一名律师。1965 年，他离开了自己创建的律师事务所，开始了一家投资合伙企业，在 14 年的时间里，该公司的年复合增长率超过了市场 19.8%——鉴于他完全没有接受过正规的商业教育，这一记录令人震惊。4个
Charlie graduated from Harvard Law in 1948 and spent the next seventeen years practicing as an attorney. In 1965, he left the law firm he had created to start an investment partnership, which went on to outperform the market by 19.8 percent compounded annually over fourteen years—an astounding record given his complete lack of formal business education.4
查理芒格并不是家喻户晓的名字，但大多数人都听说过查理的商业伙伴沃伦巴菲特。1978 年，芒格加入了伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的巴菲特，这是一家陷入困境的纺织品制造商，后来成为投资控股公司。巴菲特和芒格一起成为了亿万富翁。
Charlie Munger isn’t a household name, but most people have heard of Warren Buffett, Charlie’s business partner. Munger joined Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway, a floundering textile manufacturer turned investment holding company, in 1978. Together, Buffett and Munger became billionaires.
根据巴菲特的说法，查理以心智模型为中心的商业方法是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司成功和巴菲特成为世界上最富有的企业主之一的主要因素。用巴菲特的话来说：“查理可以更快地分析和评估任何类型的交易比任何活着的人都准确。他能在六十秒内发现任何有效的弱点。他是完美的搭档。” 5个
According to Buffett, Charlie’s mental model–centric approach to business is a major contributing factor in the success of Berkshire Hathaway and Buffett’s status as one of the world’s wealthiest business owners. In Buffett’s words: “Charlie can analyze and evaluate any kind of deal faster and more accurately than any man alive. He sees any valid weakness in sixty seconds. He’s the perfect partner.”5
查理成功的秘诀在于系统地理解企业的运作方式。尽管他从未在大学学习过商业，但他在各种学科中坚持不懈的自我教育使他能够构建他所谓的“心智模型格子”，然后将其应用于商业决策：
The secret to Charlie’s success is a systematic way of understanding how businesses work. Even though he never studied business in college, his relentless self-education in a wide variety of subjects allowed him to construct what he called a “latticework of mental models,” which he then applied to making business decisions:
长期以来，我一直相信某种系统——几乎任何聪明人都能学会——比大多数人用来[了解世界]的系统要好得多。你需要的是头脑中的心智模型网格。而且，有了这个系统，事物会以一种增强认知的方式逐渐融合在一起。
I’ve long believed that a certain system—which almost any intelligent person can learn—works way better than the systems most people use [to understand the world]. What you need is a latticework of mental models in your head. And, with that system, things gradually fit together in a way that enhances cognition.
正如多个因素塑造每个系统一样，来自不同学科的多个心智模型对于理解该系统是必要的。. . 你必须认识到生物学家朱利安赫胥黎的观点的真实性，即“生命只是一个又一个该死的相关性”。所以你必须拥有所有的模型，你必须看到相关性以及相关性的影响。. . 6个
Just as multiple factors shape every system, multiple mental models from a variety of disciplines are necessary to understand that system . . . You have to realize the truth of biologist Julian Huxley’s idea that “Life is just one damn relatedness after another.” So you must have all the models, and you must see the relatedness and the effects from the relatedness . . .6
坐在这里思考比你聪明得多的人是很有趣的，因为你已经训练自己变得更客观、更跨学科。此外，其中有很多钱，我可以从我自己的亲身经历中作证。7
It’s kind of fun to sit here and outthink people who are way smarter than you are because you’ve trained yourself to be more objective and more multidisciplinary. Furthermore, there is a lot of money in it, as I can testify from my own personal experience.7
巴菲特和芒格基于他们对企业如何运作、人们如何运作以及系统如何运作的广泛知识做出投资决策，创建了一家价值超过 5000 亿美元的公司——对于一位来自奥马哈的气象学家出身的律师来说，这是一个惊人的记录正规的商业教育。
By basing their investment decisions on their extensive knowledge of how businesses work, how people work, and how systems work, Buffett and Munger created a company worth more than $500 billion—an astounding track record for a meteorologist-turned-lawyer from Omaha with no formal business education.
发现芒格的商业教育方法是一个启示。几十年前，这个人决定做我正在做的事情——而且效果出乎所有人的意料。芒格识别和应用基本原则的方法对我来说比我读过的大多数商业书籍更有意义。我决定尽我所能学习查理芒格用来做决定的心智模型。
Discovering Munger’s approach to business education was a revelation. Here was a man who, decades before, had decided to do what I was doing—and it had worked beyond all expectation. Munger’s method of identifying and applying fundamental principles made much more sense to me than most of the business books I’d read. I decided to learn everything I could about the mental models Charlie Munger used to make decisions.
查理从未出版过他心智模型的综合集。他在演讲和文章中给出了提示——甚至在2005 年的传记《穷查理宝典》中发表了一份他认为最有用的心理学原理清单——但没有任何一篇文章包含查理的“你需要的一切”的概念了解才能在商业上取得成功。”
Charlie has never published a comprehensive collection of his mental models. He’s given hints in his speeches and essays—even going so far as to publish a list of the psychological principles he finds most useful in Poor Charlie’s Almanack, a 2005 biography—but there is no single text that contains Charlie’s conception of “everything you need to know in order to succeed in business.”
如果我想了解每个成功商人工作方式的基本原则，我就必须自己去发现它们。为此，我必须从头开始重建我对商业的理解。
If I wanted to understand the fundamental principles of how every successful businessperson works, I’d have to discover them myself. To do that, I had to rebuild my understanding of business from the ground up.
连接点
Connecting the Dots
在所有事务中，偶尔对您长期以来认为理所当然的事情打个问号是有益的。
In all affairs, it’s a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on the things you have long taken for granted.
—伯特兰·罗素 (BERTRAND RUSSELL)，著名哲学家，哲学问题和数学原理的作者
—BERTRAND RUSSELL, RENOWNED PHILOSOPHER AND AUTHOR OF THE PROBLEMS OF PHILOSOPHY AND THE PRINCIPLES OF MATHEMATICS
大多数商业书籍和商学院都假定学生已经知道企业是什么、他们做什么以及他们如何运作——就好像这是世界上最显而易见的事情一样。不是。商业是人类经验中最复杂和多学科的领域之一，试图理解商业如何运作可能很困难，即使它们每天都在我们身边。
Most business books—and business schools—assume that the student already knows what businesses are, what they do, and how they work—as if it were the most obvious thing in the world. It’s not. Business is one of the most complex and multidisciplinary areas of human experience, and trying to understand how businesses work can be difficult, even though they surround us every day.
商业是日常生活的一部分，很容易将商业世界视为理所当然。日复一日，企业毫不张扬或大惊小怪地提供我们想要和需要的东西。环顾四周：你现在身边几乎所有的物质商品都是由某种企业创造并交付给你的。
Businesses are so much a part of daily life that it’s easy to take the business world for granted. Day after day, businesses deliver what we want and need with little fanfare or fuss. Look around: almost every material good you’re surrounded by right now was created and delivered to you by some sort of business.
企业以如此多不同的方式创造和交付如此多不同的东西，这使得概括起来变得困难：苹果酒和航空公司有什么共同点？事实证明，相当多——如果你知道去哪里找的话。
Businesses create and deliver so many different things in so many different ways that it makes generalizations difficult: What do apple cider and airlines have in common? As it turns out, quite a bit—if you know where to look.
我是这样定义企业的：
Here’s how I define a business:
每个成功的企业 (1) 创造或提供一些有价值的东西，这些东西 (2) 其他人想要或需要 (3) 以他们愿意支付的价格，以 (4) 满足购买者的需要和期望的方式，(5) 为企业提供足够的收入，使所有者值得继续经营。
Every successful business (1) creates or provides something of value that (2) other people want or need (3) at a price they’re willing to pay, in a way that (4) satisfies the purchaser’s needs and expectations, and (5) provides the business sufficient revenue to make it worthwhile for the owners to continue operation.
去掉这些东西中的任何一个——价值创造、客户需求、交易、价值交付或利润充足——你就会拥有企业以外的东西。每个因素都是必不可少的和普遍的。
Take away any of these things—value creation, customer demand, transactions, value delivery, or profit sufficiency—and you have something other than a business. Each factor is both essential and universal.
当我详细研究每一个因素时，我发现了额外的普遍要求。如果不了解人们的需求（市场研究），就无法创造价值。吸引客户首先需要引起他们的注意，然后让他们感兴趣（营销）。为了完成销售，人们必须相信您有能力兑现承诺（价值交付和运营）。客户满意度取决于超越客户的期望（客户服务）。利润充足需要带来比花费更多的钱（金融）。
As I researched each of those factors in detail, I found additional universal requirements. Value can’t be created without understanding what people want (market research). Attracting customers first requires getting their attention, then making them interested (marketing). In order to close a sale, people must trust your ability to deliver on what’s promised (value delivery and operations). Customer satisfaction depends on exceeding the customer’s expectations (customer service). Profit sufficiency requires bringing in more money than is spent (finance).
这些任务不是火箭科学，但它们始终是必要的，无论您是谁或从事什么业务。做好它们，您的业务就会蓬勃发展。忽略它们，您的业务不会持续很长时间。
These tasks aren’t rocket science, but they’re always necessary, no matter who you are or what business you’re in. Do them well and your business thrives. Ignore them and you won’t be in business very long.
每个企业都依赖于两个额外的因素：人和系统。每个企业都是由人创造的，并通过以某种方式使他人受益而生存。要了解企业的运作方式，您必须深入了解人们倾向于如何思考和行为——人们如何做出决定、根据这些决定采取行动以及与他人沟通。心理学和神经科学的最新进展揭示了人们为什么做他们所做的事情，以及如何改善我们自己的行为以及如何以更高效和有效的方式与他人合作。
Every business relies on two additional factors: people and systems. Every business is created by people and survives by benefiting other people in some way. To understand how businesses work, you must have a firm understanding of how people tend to think and behave—how humans make decisions, act on those decisions, and communicate with others. Recent advances in psychology and neuroscience are revealing why people do the things they do, as well as how to improve our own behavior and work in a more efficient and effective way with others.
另一方面，系统是将所有业务结合在一起的无形结构。从本质上讲，每项业务都是流程的集合，可以重复这些流程以产生特定的结果。通过了解复杂系统的工作原理，可以找到改进现有系统的方法，无论您是在处理营销活动还是汽车装配线。
Systems, on the other hand, are the invisible structures that hold every business together. At the core, every business is a collection of processes that can be repeated to produce a particular result. By understanding how complex systems work, it’s possible to find ways to improve existing systems, whether you’re dealing with a marketing campaign or an automotive assembly line.
在写这本书之前，我花了几年时间与我的客户和读者一起测试它的原则。理解和应用这些商业思维模式帮助他们开启新的职业生涯，从企业和学术领域的知名组织获得工作机会，获得晋升和加薪，开始新业务，并且在某些情况下，完成了整个产品开发过程（从创意到首次销售）在几周而不是几年内完成。
Before writing this book, I spent several years testing its principles with my clients and readers. Understanding and applying these mental models of business has helped them launch new careers, land job offers from prestigious organizations in corporate and academic fields, land promotions and pay raises, start new businesses, and, in several cases, go through the entire product development process (from idea to first sale) in weeks instead of years.
这些概念很重要，因为它们有效。您不仅能够为他人创造更多价值并改善您的职业生涯，而且您会发现更容易实现您设定的目标，并且您会在此过程中获得更多乐趣。
These concepts are important because they work. Not only will you be able to create more value for others and improve your career, you’ll find it easier to achieve what you set out to do—and you’ll have more fun along the way.
对于怀疑论者
For the Skeptics
你在公共图书馆的滞纳金上浪费了 150,000 美元，而你本可以花 50 美元获得教育。
You wasted $150,000 on an education you could have got for a buck fifty in late charges at the public library.
——马特·达蒙 AS WILL HUNTING, GOOD WILL HUNTING
—MATT DAMON AS WILL HUNTING, GOOD WILL HUNTING
本节探讨了传统商学院课程与在学术界以外学习商业概念的利弊。如果您已经注册商学院，完成了 MBA 课程，或者不关心商业学术界的现状，那么本节对您来说就没有那么大的价值。请随意跳至此页面。
This section examines the benefits and detriments of traditional business school programs versus learning business concepts outside of academia. If you have already enrolled in business school, have completed an MBA program, or don’t care about the current state of business academia, this section won’t be as valuable for you. Feel free to skip ahead to this page.
这是一本关于商业概念的书，而不是商学院。然而，许多人认为，如果不花大笔钱从常春藤联盟学校获得名牌文凭，就不可能从全面的商业教育中获益。本节将讨论传统 MBA 课程的优点和缺点，适合持怀疑态度的人。
This is a book about business concepts, not business schools. However, many people don’t believe it’s possible to reap the benefits of a comprehensive business education without forking over enormous sums of money for a name-brand diploma from an Ivy League school. This section, which will discuss the merits and downfalls of traditional MBA programs, is for the skeptics.
你应该去商学院吗？
Should You Go to Business School?
(A) MBA 帮助你向他人证明你的能力与 (B) 获得 MBA 实际提高你的能力之间存在差异。
There is a difference between (A) what an MBA does to help you prove your abilities to others and (B) what getting an MBA actually does to improve your abilities.
—Scott Berkun，Making Things Happen和The Myths of Innovation 的作者
—SCOTT BERKUN, AUTHOR OF MAKING THINGS HAPPEN AND THE MYTHS OF INNOVATION
每年，数以百万计的想出名的人都有以下想法：“我想成为一名成功的商人。我应该在哪里获得 MBA 学位？” 既然你正在翻阅这本书，你可能在生活中的某个时刻想过同样的事情。
Every year, millions of individuals determined to make a name for themselves have the following thought: “I want to become a successful businessperson. Where should I get my MBA?” Since you’re flipping through this book, you’ve probably wondered the same thing at some point in your life.
答案如下：五个简单的词将为您节省数年的努力和数十万美元：
Here’s the answer: five simple words that will save you years of effort and hundreds of thousands of dollars:
跳过商学院。教育自己。
Skip business school. Educate yourself.
这本书将告诉你如何在商业上取得成功——而不用牺牲你的生命。
This book will show you how to succeed in business—without mortgaging your life.
商学院的三大问题
Three Big Problems with Business Schools
大学：两百人读同一本书。一个明显的错误。两百人可以读两百本书。
College: two hundred people reading the same book. An obvious mistake. Two hundred people can read two hundred books.
——约翰·凯奇，自学成才的作家和作曲家
—JOHN CAGE, SELF-TAUGHT WRITER AND COMPOSER
我并不反对在商学院工作的人：总的来说，商学院的教授和管理人员都是可爱的人，他们尽最大努力并希望看到他们的学生取得成功。然而，MBA 课程存在三个主要的系统性问题：
I have nothing against people who work in business schools: by and large, business-school professors and administrators are lovely people who try their best and want to see their students succeed. MBA programs, however, have three major systemic issues:
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MBA 课程已经变得如此昂贵，你必须抵押你的生命来支付入学的代价。投资回报总是与你花多少钱有关，经过几十年的学费上涨，MBA 课程已经成为学生的负担而不是福利。主要问题不是上大学是否是一种积极的经历：而是这种经历是否值得付出代价。8个
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MBA programs have become so expensive you must mortgage your life to pay the price of admission. Return on investment is always related to how much you spend, and after decades of tuition increases, MBA programs have become a burden to their students instead of a benefit. The primary question is not whether attending a university is a positive experience: it’s whether or not the experience is worth the cost.8
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MBA 课程教授许多毫无价值、过时甚至完全有害的概念和实践——假设你的目标是建立一个成功的企业并增加你的净资产。我的许多持有 MBA 学位的读者和客户在花费数万（有时数百）美元学习复杂的财务公式和统计模型的来龙去脉之后，才意识到他们的 MBA 课程并没有教他们如何开始或改善真实的运营业务。这是一个问题——从商学院毕业并不能保证你在毕业后拥有有用的商业工作知识，而这是你成功所需要的。
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MBA programs teach many worthless, outdated, even outright damaging concepts and practices—assuming your goal is to build a successful business and increase your net worth. Many of my MBA-holding readers and clients come to me after spending tens (sometimes hundreds) of thousands of dollars learning the ins and outs of complex financial formulas and statistical models, only to realize that their MBA program didn’t teach them how to start or improve a real, operating business. That’s a problem—graduating from business school does not guarantee having a useful working knowledge of business when you’re done, which is what you need to be successful.
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MBA 课程并不能保证你能找到一份高薪工作，更不用说让你成为一名技能娴熟的经理或领导者，并有机会进入高管层。培养决策制定、管理和领导力等技能需要实际的实践和经验，而商学院无法在课堂上提供这些，无论该项目多么有声望。
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MBA programs won’t guarantee you a high-paying job, let alone make you a skilled manager or leader with a shot at the executive suite. Developing skills such as decision making, management, and leadership takes real practice and experience, which business schools can’t provide in the classroom, regardless of how prestigious the program is.
与其花费大量金钱来学习价值有问题的信息，不如花时间和资源学习重要的业务概念。如果您准备好并且能够投资于提高您的技能和能力，您就可以自行学习所有您需要了解的业务知识，而无需为了特权而牺牲您的生命。
Instead of spending huge sums of money to learn information of questionable value, you can spend your time and resources learning business concepts that matter. If you’re ready and able to invest in improving your skills and abilities, you can learn everything you need to know about business on your own, without mortgaging your life for the privilege.
夸大妄想
Delusions of Grandeur
雄心勃勃的人的本质只是梦想的影子。
The very substance of the ambitious is merely the shadow of a dream.
——威廉·莎士比亚，《哈姆雷特》
—WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE, HAMLET
很容易理解为什么商学院有吸引力：它被当作通往富裕舒适生活的单程票出售。想到经过两年的案例研究和欢乐时光“社交”后，企业招聘人员会厚颜无耻地向你投身，他们每个人都在一家顶级公司提供一个享有声望的高薪职位，这是一个愉快的白日梦。
It’s easy to figure out why business school is attractive: it’s sold as a one-way ticket to a prosperous and comfortable life. It’s a pleasant daydream to think that after two years of case studies and happy-hour “networking,” corporate recruiters will be shamelessly throwing themselves at you, each of them offering a prestigious and high-paying position at a top firm.
您在公司阶梯上的晋升将是迅速而确定的。您将成为工业领袖，坐在巨大的玻璃摩天大楼顶层角落办公室的一张令人印象深刻的桃花心木办公桌后面，收集巨额奖金并列出您的股票期权的价值。您将成为大老板，告诉其他人该做什么，直到该去打高尔夫球或在您的游艇上放松一下。你将在世界各地享受美酒佳肴，卑微的群众将崇敬你和你的惊人成就。每个人都会认为你有钱、聪明、有权势——他们绝对是对的。
Your rise up the corporate ladder will be swift and sure. You’ll be a CAPTAIN OF INDUSTRY, collecting huge bonuses and tabulating the value of your stock options while sitting behind an impressive-looking mahogany desk in the corner office on the top floor of a gigantic glass skyscraper. You’ll be the big boss, telling other people what to do until it’s time to go play golf or relax on your yacht. You’ll be wined and dined all over the world, and the lowly masses will venerate you and your astounding achievements. Everyone will think you’re rich, intelligent, and powerful—and they’ll be damned right.
财富、权力和荣耀的应许要付出什么代价？几千美元的申请费，在贷款文件上毫不费力地涂鸦，你就会走上成功之路！不仅如此，您还可以获得两年的日常工作假期。多么棒的交易！
What price for the promise of riches, power, and glory? A few thousand dollars in application fees, an effortless scribble on a loan document, and you’ll be on your way to the top! Not only that, you’ll get a two-year vacation from your day job. What a fantastic deal!
白日梦和现实往往截然不同。
Daydreams and reality are often quite different.
你的钱和你的生活
Your Money AND Your Life
天下没有免费的午餐。
There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch.
——罗伯特·A·海因莱因，《陌生土地上的陌生人》和《月亮是个苛刻的情妇》的作者
—ROBERT A. HEINLEIN, AUTHOR OF STRANGER IN A STRANGE LAND AND THE MOON IS A HARSH MISTRESS
目前，让我们假设您认为商学院是您获得永久成功的门票。你很幸运——几乎可以保证进入至少一所商学院。如果你支付了数千美元的申请费，写了足够多的个人陈述，恰到好处地平衡了自信和谦逊，并在面试中称赞了学校课程的质量，迟早一些学院或大学会给你机会成为下一个比尔盖茨。9
For the moment, let’s assume you think business school is your ticket to everlasting success. You’re in luck—getting into at least one business school is close to guaranteed. If you pay thousands of dollars in application fees, write enough personal statements that strike just the right balance of confidence and humility, and compliment the quality of the school’s program in interviews, sooner or later some college or university will bestow upon you the chance to become the next Bill Gates.9
然而，问题就在这里开始了：商学院很贵，而且每年都在变得越来越贵。除非你已经很富有或者你获得了巨额奖学金，否则你唯一的选择就是用你未来的收入获得贷款来支付学费。
Here, though, is where the problems begin: business school is expensive and is getting more expensive each year. Unless you’re already wealthy or you land a massive scholarship, your only option is to secure a loan against your future earnings to pay the tuition.
大多数未来的 MBA 学生已经从大学毕业并获得了本科学位，因此他们通常已经背负了一定程度的学生贷款债务。根据大学入学与成功研究所（一家高等教育可用性和负担能力非营利组织）的数据，2017 年在美国完成本科学位的学生的平均累计债务为 28,650 美元。10对于本科毕业后选择攻读 MBA 课程的学生，平均学生贷款余额为 66,300 美元。11学费并不是研究生借钱的唯一原因：租金、杂货和交通费用等日常物质需求通常是通过学生贷款来支付的。
Most prospective MBA students have already graduated from college with an undergraduate degree, so they’re often already carrying some level of student loan debt. According to the Institute for College Access and Success—a higher education availability and affordability nonprofit—the average cumulative debt of a student who completed an undergraduate degree in the United States in 2017 is $28,650.10 For students who choose to pursue an MBA program after undergrad, the total average student loan balance is $66,300.11 Tuition isn’t the only reason graduate students borrow money: day-to-day material needs like rent, groceries, and transportation costs are often funded via student loans.
假设你上的是一所普通学校，六万六千美元是一大笔钱——但谁愿意成为普通人呢？如果你正在寻找来自高盛等顶级金融服务公司或麦肯锡和贝恩等主要咨询公司的工作机会（这些公司历来是新晋 MBA 薪酬最高的选择），你将不得不参加一个前十名的节目，这需要的不仅仅是区区六十六场大奖赛。
Sixty-six thousand dollars is a significant chunk of change, assuming you go to an average school—but who wants to be average? If you’re shooting for offers from top-tier financial-services companies like Goldman Sachs or major consulting companies like McKinsey and Bain (which are historically the highest-paying options for newly minted MBAs), you’re going to have to attend a top-ten program, and that’ll require a lot more than a measly sixty-six grand.
打破本杰明一家
Breaking Out the Benjamins
谁去借贷，谁去悲伤。. . 一个傻瓜和他的钱很快就会分开。
Who goeth a borrowing, goeth a sorrowing . . . A fool and his money are soon parted.
—THOMAS TUSSER，16 世纪的英国农民和诗人
—THOMAS TUSSER, SIXTEENTH-CENTURY ENGLISH FARMER AND POET
在出版时，顶级 MBA 课程每年收取 50,000 至 80,000美元的学费。12该数额不包括费用、学生贷款利息或生活费用，并且每年增加 5% 到 10%。
At the time of publication, top MBA programs charge $50,000 to $80,000 per year for tuition.12 That amount doesn’t include fees, student loan interest, or living expenses and is increasing by 5 to 10 percent each year.
情况变得更糟。根据商学院新闻网站 Poets&Quants 汇编的数据，九所商学院两年全日制课程的直接成本超过 20 万美元：哈佛、斯坦福、沃顿、纽约大学、哥伦比亚、达特茅斯、芝加哥、麻省理工和西北。13加上 1% 到 3% 的贷款发起费和 6% 到 10% 的贷款余额复合年利率，再加上大都市地区的生活费用和你在学校期间没有赚到的钱，你就已经计算入学的真实成本。一旦你考虑到所有因素，一个顶级研究生水平的商业学位的总成本可能超过 400,000 美元。即使你假设毕业后的薪水是六位数，学位的总成本也是你未来职业收入的很大一部分。
It gets worse. According to data compiled by Poets&Quants, a business-school news website, nine business schools exceed $200,000 in direct costs for their two-year, full-time program: Harvard, Stanford, Wharton, NYU, Columbia, Dartmouth, Chicago, MIT, and Northwestern.13 Tack on 1 to 3 percent in loan origination fees and a 6 to 10 percent compound annual interest rate on the loan balance, plus living expenses in a major metropolitan area and the money you’re not earning while in school, and you’ve calculated the true cost of enrollment. Once you account for everything, the total cost of a top graduate-level business degree can exceed $400,000. Even if you assume a six-figure salary after graduation, the total cost of the degree is a substantial percentage of your future career earnings.
当然，这是假设你被录取了——商学院的招生以竞争激烈的选拔过程而闻名是有原因的。商学院的声誉建立在其毕业生的成功之上，因此学校有直接的动机录取已经具备成功所需条件的学生，无论是 MBA 还是没有 MBA。
That’s assuming you get in, of course—business-school admissions are famous for their competitive selection processes for a reason. The reputation of a business school is built on the success of its graduates, so schools have a direct incentive to admit students who already have what it takes to succeed, MBA or no MBA.
此外，顶尖学校依靠知名捐助者、富有的毕业生和企业关系来筹集资金、招募未来的学生和扩大校园。因此，富有和人脉广的申请人更有可能收到录取通知书。14根据《彭博商业周刊》对 126 所商学院的商学院毕业生进行的一项调查，44% 的学生表示他们没有借钱来支付学位费用。15在您考虑其他形式的财务支持之前，这个数字没有意义：先前存在的家庭财富、捐赠者入场和企业赞助。
In addition, top schools rely on high-profile donors, well-heeled graduates, and corporate connections to raise funds, recruit future students, and expand their campuses. As a result, wealthy and well-connected applicants are more likely to receive acceptance letters.14 According to a Bloomberg Businessweek survey that polled business graduates from 126 business schools, 44 percent of students reported that they did not borrow money to pay for their degree.15 That figure doesn’t make sense until you consider other forms of financial support: preexisting family wealth, donor admissions, and corporate sponsorship.
商学院不会培养富有和人脉广的人。他们接受他们，然后将他们的成功归功于他们。
Business schools don’t create wealthy and well-connected people. They accept them, then take credit for their success.
如果你被录取，学校会尽其所能帮助你在毕业后的几个月内找到一份高薪工作，但让事情发生永远是你的责任。如果你在毕业后的几年里取得成功，学校会把你当作他们课程质量的光辉榜样，并会利用你名字的“光环效应”招收更多学生。如果你丢了工作破产了，你既得不到宣传也得不到帮助，但贷款账单会源源不断地滚滚而来。真对不起你的运气。
If you get in, the school will do what it can to help you get a well-paying job within a few months of graduation, but making things happen will always be your responsibility. If you’re successful in the years after graduation, the school will hold you up as a shining example of the quality of their program and will use the “halo effect” of your name to recruit more students. If you lose your job and go broke, you’ll get neither publicity nor help, but the loan bills will keep rolling in. Sorry about your luck.
以下是宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院 2002 届毕业生克里斯蒂安·施拉加 (Christian Schraga) 在其网站上发表的一篇文章中对自己的 MBA 经历的评价：16
Here’s what Christian Schraga, a 2002 graduate of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, had to say about his MBA experience in an essay on his website:16
我的经历告诉我，顶尖的 MBA 课程提供了一些好处，但代价高昂。如果您目前正在考虑参加全日制课程，请停下来问问自己是否愿意冒险。
My been-there-done-that experience has taught me that a top MBA program provides some benefits, but at a steep price. If you are currently considering attending a full-time program, please stop to ask yourself whether or not you are willing to take the risk.
商学院是一个很大的风险。如果您选择注册，唯一可以确定的是您将支付大约 125,000 美元。这样的数字与 1,500 美元/月的不可扣除贷款还款和十年内您将无法节省一分钱的时间相关。
Business school is a big risk. Should you choose to enroll, the only certainty is that you will shell out about $125,000. Such a figure correlates to a $1,500/month non-deductible loan repayment and a ten-year period of time in which you will not be able to save a red cent.
如果你认为为了获得家谱、兄弟会、两年的假期和赚大钱的机会，这笔钱是值得的，那么 MBA 是适合你的。如果没有，请执行其他操作。
If you think that this payment is worth it to earn the pedigree, the fraternity, the two years off, and a shot at the big bucks, then the MBA is right for you. If not, please do something else.
明智的话。如果您不需要羊皮，请不要注册。
Wise words. If you don’t need the sheepskin, don’t enroll.
MBA实际上会给你带来什么
What an MBA Will Actually Get You
虚伪的承诺可以很宏伟；因为从不打算超越承诺，所以它不需要任何成本。
Hypocrisy can afford to be magnificent in its promises; for never intending to go beyond promises, it costs nothing.
——埃德蒙·伯克，政治家和政治理论家
—EDMUND BURKE, POLITICIAN AND POLITICAL THEORIST
在“商学院的终结？Less Success Than Meets the Eye，”发表在管理学习与教育学院的一项研究，17斯坦福大学的 Jeffrey Pfeffer 和华盛顿大学的 Christina Fong 分析了四十年的数据，试图找到证据表明商学院使他们的毕业生更加成功。他们的假设很简单：
In “The End of Business Schools? Less Success Than Meets the Eye,” a study published in Academy of Management Learning & Education,17 Jeffrey Pfeffer of Stanford University and Christina Fong of the University of Washington analyzed forty years of data in an effort to find evidence that business schools make their graduates more successful. Their hypothesis was straightforward:
如果 MBA 教育对商业培训是有用的，那么从逻辑上讲，以下内容应该是正确的：(1) 在其他条件相同的情况下，拥有 MBA 学位应该与职业成功和成就的各种衡量标准相关，例如薪水; (2) 如果某人在商学院学到的东西帮助他更好地为商业世界做好准备并在该领域更有能力——换句话说，如果商学院传授对专业有用的知识——那么衡量一个人学到了多少或掌握了材料，例如课程作业的成绩，应该至少在某种程度上可以预测表明业务成功的各种结果。
If an MBA education is useful training for business, then the following should be true as a matter of logic: (1) having an MBA degree should, other things being equal, be related to various measures of career success and attainment, such as salary; and (2) if what someone learns in business school helps that person be better prepared for the business world and more competent in that domain—in other words, if business schools convey professionally useful knowledge—then a measure of how much one has learned or mastered the material, such as grades in course work, should be at least somewhat predictive of various outcomes that index success in business.
Pfeffer 和 Fong 的发现令人震惊和不安：除了让钱从学生口袋里消失之外，商学院几乎什么都不做。
What Pfeffer and Fong found was astonishing and disturbing: business schools do almost nothing, aside from making money disappear from students’ pockets.
商学院不是很有效：拥有 MBA 学位和在课程中获得的成绩都与职业成功无关，这些结果质疑学校在培养学生方面的有效性。而且，几乎没有证据表明商学院的研究对管理实践有影响，这让人质疑管理奖学金的专业相关性。
Business schools are not very effective: Neither possessing an MBA degree nor grades earned in courses correlate with career success, results that question the effectiveness of schools in preparing their students. And, there is little evidence that business school research is influential on management practice, calling into question the professional relevance of management scholarship.
根据 Pfeffer 和 Fong 的研究，无论你是在班上以完美的 4.0 GPA 名列前茅，还是以勉强及格的成绩垫底毕业，都没有关系——获得 MBA 与长期职业成功的相关性为零。没有任何。
According to Pfeffer and Fong’s study, it doesn’t matter if you graduate at the top of your class with a perfect 4.0 GPA or at the bottom with a barely passing grade—getting an MBA has zero correlation with long-term career success. None.
几乎没有证据表明 MBA 证书，尤其是来自非精英学校的证书，或在商业课程中获得的成绩（衡量对材料的掌握程度）与薪水或在组织中获得更高级别职位有关。这些数据至少表明，商业教育的培训或教育部分只是松散地与管理组织的世界联系在一起。
There is scant evidence that the MBA credential, particularly from non-elite schools, or the grades earned in business courses—a measure of the mastery of the material—are related to either salary or the attainment of higher level positions in organizations. These data, at a minimum, suggest that the training or education component of business education is only loosely coupled to the world of managing organizations.
如果你花几十万美元购买一个学位，而这个学位的唯一目的是让你成为一个更成功的商人，这听起来很难听。
That’s tough to hear if you’ve forked over a few hundred thousand dollars to buy a degree whose sole purpose is to make you a more successful businessperson.
情况变得更糟：获得 MBA 学位甚至不会对您的终生总收入产生影响。需要几十年的努力才能摆脱为获得学位而背负的债务。沃顿商学院 MBA Christian Schraga 估计，顶级 MBA 课程的十年净现值（一种用于估计投资是否值得的财务分析技术）约为负 53,000 美元（这很糟糕）。这假设 MBA 前基本工资为 85,000 美元，MBA 后工资为 115,000 美元（增加 35％），边际税率增加（如果您的工作需要搬到大城市，您将支付）以及折扣率占 7% 的机会成本（您通过在商学院上花钱而不是投资于其他东西而放弃的机会）。用简单的英语：
It gets worse: getting an MBA doesn’t even have an impact on your total lifetime earnings. It takes decades of work to dig yourself out of the debt you took on to get the degree. Christian Schraga, the Wharton MBA, estimated that the ten-year net present value (a financial analysis technique used to estimate whether or not an investment is worthwhile) of a top MBA program is approximately negative $53,000 (that’s bad). This assumes a pre-MBA base salary of $85,000, a post-MBA salary of $115,000 (a 35 percent increase), marginal tax rate increases (which you’ll pay if your job requires moving to a major city), and a discount rate of 7 percent to account for opportunity cost (the opportunities you give up by spending money on business school instead of investing it in something else). In plain English: Schraga used a technique business schools teach to prove that getting an MBA from a top-tier business school is a bad financial decision.
假设 Schraga 的假设是准确的，毕业后需要 12 年的扎实努力才能实现收支平衡——而且这是假设一切都按计划进行。如果你毕业后进入糟糕的就业市场，那你就完蛋了。
Assuming Schraga’s assumptions are accurate, it takes twelve years of solid post-graduation effort just to break even—and that’s assuming everything goes according to plan. If you graduate into a bad job market, you’re screwed.
商学院从何而来
Where Business Schools Came From
事实上，现代教学方法没有完全扼杀探究的好奇心，这简直就是一个奇迹。
It is, in fact, nothing short of a miracle that modern methods of instruction have not entirely strangled the curiosity of inquiry.
——阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦，诺贝尔物理学奖得主
—ALBERT EINSTEIN, NOBEL PRIZE–WINNING PHYSICIST
MBA 课程不会让学生更成功，因为他们教授的东西很少，对工作世界有用。正如 Pfeffer 和 Fong 在他们的论文中所说：
MBA programs don’t make students more successful because they teach very few things that are useful in the working world. As Pfeffer and Fong state in their paper:
大量证据表明，商学院教授的课程与商业成功的重要因素之间的关系很小。. . 事实上，如果商业所需的技能与研究生所教授的内容之间只有轻微的联系商业课程，那么 MBA 或对主题的掌握对毕业生的职业没有影响是可以理解的。
A large body of evidence suggests that the curriculum taught in business schools has only a small relationship to what is important for succeeding in business . . . If there is, in fact, only a slight connection between the skills needed in business and what is taught in graduate business programs, then the absence of an effect of the MBA or mastery of the subject matter on the careers of graduates is understandable.
如果你查看任何商学院的课程，你会注意到一些关于你毕业后将做什么的假设：你要么成为大型工业制造或零售业务的 C 级主管，要么成为一名顾问，成为公司会计师，或在投资银行或对冲基金从事金融工作。课程作业的结构往往围绕着保持大规模运营的运行和/或进行复杂的定量分析——而不是执行 99% 的商务人士在任何一天都会执行的任何其他基本任务。
If you look at the curriculum of any business school, you’ll notice a few assumptions about what you’ll do after you graduate: you’ll either be a C-level executive at a large industrial manufacturing or retail operation, become a consultant, become a corporate accountant, or work in finance at an investment bank or hedge fund. The coursework tends to be structured around keeping a massive operation running and/or doing sophisticated quantitative analysis—not doing any of the other essential tasks that 99 percent of working businesspeople do in any given day.
商学院的案例依赖于它使毕业生成为更有能力的高管、经理和企业主的说法，但没有证据表明研究生水平的商业教育能让你成为一个熟练或有效的商人：情境因素要重要得多。在一项名为“MBA 神话和 CEO 崇拜”的综合研究中，Dan Rasmussen 和 Haonan Li 分享了他们对 MBA 证书对 8,500 多名 CEO 的个人和公司绩效影响的研究。18以下是他们如何描述他们的主要研究兴趣之一：
The case for business school relies on the claim that it makes graduates more capable executives, managers, and business owners, but there’s no evidence that graduate-level business education makes you a skilled or effective businessperson: situational factors are far more important. In a comprehensive study titled “The MBA Myth and the Cult of the CEO,” Dan Rasmussen and Haonan Li shared their research into the effect of MBA credentials on the individual and company performance of more than 8,500 CEOs.18 Here’s how they described one of their primary research interests:
CEO特征能预测股价表现吗？拥有 MBA 学位的 CEO 是否比没有 MBA 学位的 CEO 表现更好？拥有最好的 MBA 课程的 MBA 的 CEO 是否比其他 CEO 表现更好？在顶级咨询公司和投资银行工作过的 CEO 的表现是否优于其他 CEO？更广泛地说，“最优秀和最聪明”的人是否更擅长经营公司？
Do CEO characteristics predict stock price performance? Do CEOs with MBAs perform better than CEOs without MBAs? Do CEOs with MBAs from the best MBA programs outperform other CEOs? Do CEOs who worked at top consulting firms and investment banks outperform other CEOs? More broadly, are the “best and brightest” better at running companies?
以下是拉斯穆森和李的研究结论：
Here’s the conclusion of Rasmussen and Li’s study:
我们没有发现统计上显着的[优势]——尽管用合理的样本量测试了每所可能的学校。如果用股价回报来衡量绩效，MBA 课程根本不会培养出更擅长经营公司的 CEO。. . 实际的 CEO 绩效结果与我们偶然看到的情况非常吻合。[. . .] 投资者和董事会被随机性和空洞的凭证主义愚弄多久？
We found no statistically significant [advantage]—despite testing every possible school with a reasonable sample size. MBA programs simply do not produce CEOs who are better at running companies, if performance is measured by stock price return . . . The actual CEO performance results line up very closely with what we would expect to see by chance. [. . .] How much longer will investors and boards be fooled by randomness and hollow credentialism?
当你意识到大多数商学院教授的概念、原则和技术是为一个截然不同的世界而设计时，课堂和工作世界之间的脱节是有道理的。商学院在 19 世纪末第二次工业革命期间开始涌现。早期 MBA 课程的目的是培训管理人员更加科学，以提高大型企业的效率。
The disconnect between the classroom and the working world makes sense when you realize that the concepts, principles, and techniques most business schools teach were designed for a very different world. Graduate schools of business started popping up at the end of the nineteenth century, during the second Industrial Revolution. The intent of early MBA programs was to train managers to be more scientific in an effort to make large operations more efficient.
现在构成现代管理培训基础的“科学管理”技术的先驱弗雷德里克温斯洛泰勒使用秒表将工人将铁锭装入火车车厢的平均时间缩短了几秒钟。这应该能让你很好地了解大多数商学院管理课程的基本思维模式。
Frederick Winslow Taylor, the pioneer of “scientific management” techniques that now form the foundation of modern management training, used a stopwatch to shave a few seconds off the average time a workman took to load iron ingots into a train car. That should give you a good idea of the underlying mind-set of most business-school management programs.
管理被认为是一种让人们更快地工作并按吩咐去做的练习。管理心理学背后的哲学家国王是伊万巴甫洛夫，后来是 BF 斯金纳，他们相信如果你发现并应用恰到好处的刺激，人们就会按照你的意愿行事。这种心态导致广泛使用财务激励来影响行为：工资、奖金、股票期权等，以鼓励业务专业人员和管理人员为公司股东的最大利益行事。
Management was thought of as an exercise in getting people to work faster and do what they’re told. The philosopher-kings behind what passed for management psychology were Ivan Pavlov and, later on, B. F. Skinner, who believed that if you discovered and applied just the right stimulus, people would behave however you wanted. This mentality led to the widespread use of financial incentives to influence behavior: salary, bonuses, stock options, and so on, in an effort to encourage business professionals and managers to act in the best interest of corporate shareholders.
有大量（而且还在不断增加）的证据表明，直接激励通常会削弱现实世界中的绩效、积极性和工作满意度。19尽管有更多有用的人类行为的竞争理论，20直到今天，商学院课堂上仍在继续寻找神奇的刺激。
There’s an enormous (and growing) body of evidence that direct incentives often undermine performance, motivation, and job satisfaction in the real world.19 Despite more useful competing theories of human action,20 the search for the magic stimulus continues in business-school classrooms to this day.
寻找分销
In Search of Distribution
任何技术，无论多么有价值和令人向往，当头脑沉迷于它时，都会成为一种疾病。
Any technique, however worthy and desirable, becomes a disease when the mind is obsessed with it.
——李小龙，世界著名武术家
—BRUCE LEE, WORLD-RENOWNED MARTIAL ARTIST
另一方面，营销最初是一种为实体产品获得额外商店分销并让昂贵的工厂生产线保持忙碌的方式。随着广播电视的广泛普及二十世纪初，向全国广大受众做广告成为可能，为民族品牌和民族零售商铺平了道路。更多的广告导致更多的分销，这反过来又导致更多的销售，甚至更多的钱花在广告上，继续这个循环。几十年过去了，这种自我强化的反馈循环导致每个行业都出现了一些占主导地位的庞然大物。商学院开始沉迷于如何通过规模越来越大的合并来夺取市场份额并创建庞大的公司，每次收购都会增加财务风险。
Marketing, on the other hand, was originally a way to get additional store distribution for physical products and keep expensive factory production lines busy. With the widespread adoption of radio and television in the early twentieth century, it became possible to advertise to a large, national audience, paving the way for national brands and national retailers. More advertising resulted in more distribution, which, in turn, resulted in more sales and even more money to spend on advertising, continuing the cycle. As decades passed, this self-reinforcing feedback loop resulted in a few dominant behemoths in each industry. Business schools became obsessed with how to capture market share and create gigantic companies via ever-larger mergers, raising the financial stakes with each acquisition.
对于企业家来说，风险投资成为创业过程中不可或缺的一部分——否则你怎么能负担得起在短短几年内建立一家工厂或一个民族品牌？生产规模经济意味着大公司可以通过以较低的价格提供类似产品来击败较小的竞争对手。投资者希望看到他们的资金获得丰厚的回报——谨慎是该死的——奖励那些编写商业计划并承诺在短时间内大量退出的投机者。有生存能力的企业以联合和“协同效应”的名义被收购和摧毁，这一切都得到了商业学术界的支持。集成这些巨大、复杂的业务系统的巨大规模被忽视或忽视，导致大多数尝试进行如此大规模合并的公司破产。
For entrepreneurs, venture capital became a must-have aspect of the business-creation process—how else could you afford to build a factory or a national brand in a few short years? Economies of scale in production meant large companies could outcompete smaller rivals by offering similar products at lower prices. Investors wanted to see huge returns on their money—prudence be damned—rewarding speculators who wrote business plans promising a huge exit in a short amount of time. Viable businesses were acquired and gutted in the name of conglomeration and “synergy,” all with the blessing of business academia. The sheer enormity of integrating these gigantic, complex business systems was ignored or overlooked, leading most of the companies that attempted such huge mergers to ruin.
玩火
Playing with Fire
当心极客轴承公式。
Beware of geeks bearing formulas.
——沃伦·巴菲特，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官，世界上最富有的人之一
—WARREN BUFFETT, CHAIRMAN AND CEO OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY AND ONE OF THE WEALTHIEST INDIVIDUALS IN THE WORLD
与此同时，金融的复杂性增加了。在二十世纪之前，会计和金融是常识和相对简单的算术。复式簿记（13 世纪的一项创新）的广泛采用带来了许多好处，包括提高准确性和检测盗窃等异常情况的便利性，但代价是简单性。
Finance, in the meantime, increased in complexity. Before the twentieth century, accounting and finance were a matter of common sense and relatively simple arithmetic. The widespread adoption of double-entry bookkeeping (a thirteenth-century innovation) brought many benefits, including increased accuracy and ease of detecting anomalies like theft, at the cost of simplicity.
将统计数据引入金融实践以抽象为代价增强了分析能力，增加了在没有人注意的情况下捏造数字的机会。随着时间的推移，经理和高管开始使用统计数据和分析来预测未来，依靠数据库和电子表格，就像古代预言家依靠茶叶和山羊内脏一样。世界本身同样不可预测或不确定：与过去一样，这些迹象只是“证明”了占卜者的偏见和愿望。
The introduction of statistics to financial practice enhanced analytical capability at the cost of abstraction, increasing opportunities to fudge the numbers without anyone noticing. Over time, managers and executives began using statistics and analysis to forecast the future, relying on databases and spreadsheets in much the same way ancient seers relied on tea leaves and goat entrails. The world itself is no less unpredictable or uncertain: as in the olden days, the signs only “prove” the biases and desires of the soothsayer.
金融交易的复杂性以及这些交易所依赖的统计模型继续增长，直到很少有从业者完全理解它们的工作原理或尊重它们的极限。正如《连线》杂志在 2009 年 2 月的一篇文章“灾难的秘诀：杀死华尔街的公式”中所揭示的那样，Black-Scholes 期权定价模型、高斯 copula 函数和资本资产定价模型等金融公式的固有局限性（ CAPM）在 2000 年的科技泡沫以及 2008 年经济衰退背后的房地产市场和衍生品恶作剧中发挥了重要作用。
The complexity of financial transactions and the statistical models those transactions relied upon continued to grow until few practitioners fully understood how they worked or respected their limits. As Wired revealed in a February 2009 article, “Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street,” the inherent limitations of financial formulas such as the Black-Scholes option pricing model, the Gaussian copula function, and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) played a major role in the tech bubble of 2000 and the housing-market and derivatives shenanigans behind the 2008 recession.
学习如何使用复杂的财务公式与学习如何经营企业不同。了解企业为创造和交付价值所做的工作是必不可少的知识，但许多商业计划已经不再强调价值创造和运营，而倾向于金融和定量分析。在New Republic的一篇文章“Upper Mismanagement”中，记者 Noam Scheiber 探讨了美国工业衰落背后的原因：
Learning how to use complicated financial formulas isn’t the same as learning how to run a business. Understanding what businesses do to create and deliver value is essential knowledge, but many business programs have de-emphasized value creation and operations in favor of finance and quantitative analysis. In a New Republic article, “Upper Mismanagement,” journalist Noam Scheiber explores the reasons behind the downfall of American industry:
自 1965 年以来，进入咨询和金融服务领域的高排名商学院毕业生的比例翻了一番，从大约三分之一增加到大约三分之二。虽然其中一些顾问和金融家最终进入了制造业，但在某些方面这就是问题所在。. . 近几十年来，通用汽车的大多数高管都出身于财务而非运营背景。[. . .] 但这些高管经常对能够以低成本实现高质量生产的各种创新感到麻木。21
Since 1965, the percentage of graduates of highly ranked business schools who go into consulting and financial services has doubled, from about one-third to about two-thirds. And while some of these consultants and financiers end up in the manufacturing sector, in some respects that’s the problem . . . Most of GM’s top executives in recent decades hailed from a finance rather than an operations background. [. . .] But these executives were frequently numb to the sorts of innovations that enable high-quality production at low cost.21
如果您希望企业的短期利润数字看起来不错，那么很容易跳过流程改进，即使它们对于长期生存能力至关重要。由于忽视了使企业以有效和可持续的方式运营的因素，受过 MBA 培训的高管以季度每股收益的名义摧毁了有活力的公司。
Process improvements are easy to skip if you want the business’s short-term profit numbers to look good, even though they’re essential to long-term viability. By ignoring the things that make a business operate in an effective and sustainable way, MBA-trained executives have gutted viable companies in the name of quarterly earnings per share.
与此同时，使用大量债务作为杠杆的普遍做法22造就了承担更大债务的庞大公司，在好年头放大了回报，但在最轻微的经济衰退期间却使公司灾难性地不稳定。许多商学院课堂上教授的“杠杆收购”策略——购买一家公司，通过债务为大规模扩张融资，然后以溢价将企业出售给另一家公司23——将以前自给自足的公司变成了负债累累的怪物，而企业不断从一个临时所有者转移到另一个临时所有者，将金融市场变成了抢椅子游戏。
Meanwhile, the widespread practice of using large amounts of debt as leverage22 created enormous companies with even more enormous obligations, amplifying returns in good years but making the firms catastrophically unstable during the slightest downturn. The “leveraged buyout” strategy taught in many business-school classrooms—buying a company, financing massive expansion via debt, then selling the business to another company at a premium23—turned formerly self-sustaining companies into debt-bloated monstrosities, and the constant flipping of businesses from one temporary owner to the next turned financial markets into a game of musical chairs.
当金融魔法和短期回报盖过审慎和长期价值创造时，客户和员工都会受到影响。唯一受益的人是受过 MBA 培训的高管级别的金融家和基金经理，他们从交易费和薪水中榨取数亿美元，同时摧毁有生存能力的公司、数十万个工作岗位和数十亿美元的资产。价值。
When financial wizardry and short-term returns overshadow prudence and long-term value creation, customers and employees suffer. The only people who benefit are the MBA-trained, executive-level financiers and fund managers running the show, who extract hundreds of millions of dollars in transaction fees and salaries while destroying viable companies, hundreds of thousands of jobs, and billions of dollars of value.
商业是为付费客户创造和交付价值，而不是策划法律欺诈。对我们所有人来说不幸的是，商学院不再强调前者，而倾向于教授后者。
Business is about creating and delivering value to paying customers, not orchestrating legal fraud. Unfortunately for us all, business schools have de-emphasized the former in favor of teaching the latter.
没有理由改变
No Reason to Change
学校教导被教导的需要。
Schools teach the need to be taught.
—IVAN ILLICH，牧师、神学家和教育评论家
—IVAN ILLICH, PRIEST, THEOLOGIAN, AND EDUCATION CRITIC
世界在变化，但商学院并没有随之改变。随着互联网的出现和新技术的广泛应用，成功的现代企业往往规模更小，需要更少的资金来建设，管理费用更少，需要的员工也更少。根据美国小企业管理局的数据，小企业占美国所有公司的 99.9%，24雇用了将近一半的私营部门工人，25从 2000 年到 2018 年创造了 64.9% 的净新增就业机会，26并代表约占美国国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 44%。27你不会通过观察业务而知道这一点学校课程：根据目前的标准，似乎大多数 MBA 课程都认为大型企业是唯一值得管理的企业。
The world is changing, but business schools aren’t changing with it. With the advent of the internet and the widespread availability of new technologies, successful modern businesses tend to be smaller, require less capital to build, have less overhead, and require fewer employees. According to the US Small Business Administration, small businesses represent 99.9 percent of all firms in the United States,24 employ close to half of all private-sector workers,25 have generated 64.9 percent of net new jobs from 2000 to 2018,26 and represent approximately 44 percent of US gross domestic product (GDP).27 You wouldn’t know that from looking at business school curricula: based on current standards, it seems that most MBA programs believe huge businesses are the only ventures worth managing.
大众市场广告不再能够以可预测和可靠的方式将便士转换为美元。存货（如果存货存在的话）往往会变小，企业依赖他人提供关键功能，行业会发生变化并适应新的发展。速度、灵活性和独创性是当今成功企业所依赖的品质——企业巨头难以获得和保留的品质，以及商学院课堂难以教授的品质。
Mass-market advertising is no longer able to convert pennies to dollars in a predictable and reliable way. Inventories (if they exist at all) tend to be smaller, businesses depend on others for critical functions, and industries change and adapt to new developments. Speed, flexibility, and ingenuity are the qualities that successful businesses rely on today—qualities that the corporate giants struggle to acquire and retain and business-school classrooms struggle to teach.
股市的需求促使高管们以牺牲长期稳定为代价来追求短期收益，从而在时间紧迫或发生意外事件时引发裁员潮和大幅削减预算。与此同时，员工希望从工作中获得更大的自主权、灵活性和安全感——他们发现这些东西超出了传统公司工作的范围。您如何管理一开始就不想为您工作的人？
The demands of the stock market push executives to chase short-term earnings at the expense of long-term stability, creating waves of layoffs and severe budget cuts when times get tight or unexpected events occur. At the same time, employees are looking for a greater sense of autonomy, flexibility, and security from their work—and they’re finding these things outside of the confines of the traditional corporate job. How do you manage someone who doesn’t want to work for you in the first place?
MBA 课程正在努力应对，但它们仍在教授过时、误导甚至完全错误的理论，而且它们几乎没有改变的动力。既然 MBA 课程是大学有利可图的地位象征，而且需求量如此之大，何必呢？只要学生还在注册，就不要指望商学院会改变他们的商业教学方法。
MBA programs are trying to cope, but they’re still teaching theories that are outdated, misguided, and even outright wrong, and they have little incentive to change. Why bother, when MBA programs are profitable status symbols for universities and in such high demand? As long as students are still signing up, don’t expect business schools to change their approach to business instruction.
商学院的单一优势
The Single Benefit of Business Schools
机构将尝试保留他们作为解决方案的问题。
Institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution.
—CLAY SHIRKY，纽约大学教授，《人人皆有，认知过剩》的作者
—CLAY SHIRKY, PROFESSOR AT NYU AND AUTHOR OF HERE COMES EVERYBODY AND COGNITIVE SURPLUS
商学院确实提供的一项显着好处是通过校内招聘和校友网络更好地接触财富500 强招聘人员、咨询公司、大型会计师事务所和投资银行。从顶级商学院毕业后，您会发现获得财富500 强企业招聘人员的面试机会要容易得多公司、投资银行或咨询公司。毕业后效果最强，然后在三到五年内消失。在那之后，你就只能靠自己了：招聘经理不再那么关心你在哪里上学；他们更关心你从那时起所取得的成就。
The one significant benefit that business schools do provide is better access to Fortune 500 recruiters, consulting firms, large accounting firms, and investment banks via on-campus recruiting and alumni networks. Upon graduating from a top-tier business school, you’ll find it much easier to get an interview with a corporate recruiter who works for a Fortune 500 company, investment bank, or consulting firm. The effect is strongest just after graduation, then wears out within three to five years. After that, you’re on your own: hiring managers no longer care so much about where you went to school; they care more about what you’ve accomplished since then.
在决定邀请谁参加面试时，招聘经理会使用 MBA 课程作为筛选条件。人力资源经理很忙，而且由于此类项目中的每个学生都经过了预筛选，因此经理浪费宝贵时间的可能性较小。如果招聘不成功，通过 MBA 课程招聘还可以为招聘人员提供似是而非的推诿：“我不确定问题出在哪里——她毕业于哈佛商学院！”
Hiring managers use MBA programs as a filter when deciding whom to bring in for an interview. HR managers are busy, and since each student in such a program has been prescreened, there’s less of a chance the manager will be wasting precious time. Hiring from MBA programs also provides plausible deniability for the recruiter if the hire doesn’t work out: “I’m not sure what the issue was—she graduated from Harvard Business School!”
MBA 课程的过滤方面非常真实，很难靠自己克服。如果你立志成为一名管理顾问、国际金融家或财富500 强快速通道管理候选人，你可能需要为自己支付 20 万美元的面试费用。如果您走这条路，请在申请前了解自己的处境——一旦您放弃生活，债务将使您很难改变主意。
The filtering aspect of MBA programs is very real and difficult to overcome on your own. If you have your heart set on becoming a management consultant, international financier, or Fortune 500 fast-track management candidate, you may have to buy yourself a $200,000 interview. If you go this route, be aware of what you’re getting yourself into before you apply—once you sign your life away, the debt will make it very difficult to change your mind.
如果您更感兴趣的是为自己工作或在享受生活的同时保持一份愉快的工作，那么攻读 MBA 就是浪费时间和金钱。正如 AMLE 商学院研究的合著者 Pfeffer 博士在 2006 年《商业周刊》一篇关于 MBA 课程的文章中所说，“如果你足够优秀可以进入，那么你显然有足够的才能做好，无论如何。” 28
If you’re more interested in working for yourself or holding down an enjoyable job while having a life, getting an MBA is a waste of time and money. As Dr. Pfeffer, coauthor of the AMLE business-school study, said in a 2006 Businessweek article on MBA programs, “If you are good enough to get in, you obviously have enough talent to do well, regardless.”28
我欠，我欠——我去上班了
I Owe, I Owe—It’s Off to Work I Go
如果它不起作用，你想去哪里吗？
Are you where you want to be if it doesn’t work?
——路易斯·拉穆尔，作家和历史学家
—LOUIS L’AMOUR, AUTHOR AND HISTORIAN
假设您继续获得 MBA 学位。如果你“幸运”，你可能会被一家大型金融服务或咨询公司聘用，在那里你将有幸每天工作 10 小时以上，年收入约为 100,000 美元。加薪固然好，但你很难维持工作之外的任何生活，而且压力会很大且无情。甚至如果你不喜欢你的工作，如果你想还清学费贷款并让你的投资“物有所值”，你最好继续努力。
Let’s say you go ahead and get your MBA. If you’re “lucky,” you may be hired by a big financial-services or consulting firm, where you’ll have the privilege of working ten-plus hours a day for around $100,000 a year. The salary increase is nice, but you’ll have a hard time maintaining any sort of life outside of work, and the pressure will be intense and relentless. Even if you don’t like your job, you’d better keep pushing if you want to pay off your tuition loans and make your investment “worth it.”
恭喜：你已经用你的智慧和动力让自己过上了契约仆人的生活。
Congratulations: you’ve used your intelligence and drive to condemn yourself to the life of an indentured servant.
如果你工作出色，你将成为一名高管，获得加薪，承担更多责任——并且工作更加努力。你最好不要介意独自享受你的劳动成果：高层管理人员的离婚率和家庭关系问题都很高。俗话说：只要你愿意付出代价，你就能拥有任何你想要的东西。
If you do good work, you’ll become an executive, get a raise, have more responsibility—and work even harder. You’d better not mind enjoying the fruits of your labor alone: top executives have high rates of divorce and family relationship issues. As the saying goes: you can have anything you want, as long as you’re willing to pay the price.
如果你不是那么“幸运”，你会找到一份薪水比你没有 MBA 的情况下所能获得的高一点的工作。更糟糕的是，毕业后进入一个不稳定的就业市场意味着你可能带着每月 1000 美元的贷款离开商学院，但没有工作来支付账单。无情的就业市场不会让学生贷款的支付消失。无论您的生活如何，您的学生贷款将永远存在，并且您的电话会响起收债员的电话，直到他们还清为止。
If you’re not so “fortunate,” you’ll find a job that pays little more than what you’d be able to command without your MBA. Worse yet, graduating into an iffy job market means that you may leave business school with a $1000-a-month loan payment but without a job to foot the bill. An unforgiving job market won’t make student loan payments go away. Regardless of how your life works out, your student loans will always be there, and your phone will ring with the calls of debt collectors until they’re repaid.
我怎么强调都不为过：搞砸你的生活最快最简单的方法就是背负太多债务。人们花费数十年从事他们鄙视的工作的主要原因是为了偿还债权人。财务压力会破坏人际关系、威胁您的健康并危害您的理智。在角落办公室的办公桌前拍摄真的值得吗？
I can’t emphasize this enough: the quickest and easiest way to screw up your life is to take on too much debt. The primary reason people spend decades working at jobs they despise is to pay off their creditors. Financial stress can destroy relationships, threaten your health, and jeopardize your sanity. Is a shot at a desk in a corner office really worth it?
由于沉重的债务负担和可疑的回报，MBA 课程不是一项好的投资——它们是粗心者的陷阱。
With heavy debt loads and questionable returns, MBA programs aren’t a good investment—they’re a trap for the unwary.
更好的方法
A Better Way
教育教育工作者！但是第一批人必须自学！对于这些我写。
To educate educators! But the first ones must educate themselves! And for these I write.
—弗里德里希·尼采，哲学家和权力意志的作者，并如是说查拉图斯特拉
—FRIEDRICH NIETZSCHE, PHILOSOPHER AND AUTHOR OF THE WILL TO POWER AND THUS SPOKE ZARATHUSTRA
幸运的是，你可以选择如何进行自我教育——这种选择可以让你比顶尖的 MBA 毕业生更成功，同时还能为你节省数十万美元。研究良好商业实践的基础知识并自行开发网络可以以一小部分成本提供商业教育的大部分好处。与其浪费时间和辛苦赚来的钱去学习你可能永远不会用到的过时理论，不如花时间和精力自学成功所需的知识。
Fortunately, you have a choice in how you go about educating yourself—a choice that can make you more successful than top MBA graduates while saving you hundreds of thousands of dollars. Studying the fundamentals of sound business practice and developing a network on your own can provide most of the benefits of business education at a fraction of the cost. Instead of wasting your time and hard-earned money learning outdated theories you’ll probably never use, it’s far better to spend your time and energy teaching yourself what you need to know to succeed.
如果你是那种有能力进入顶级 MBA 课程并在毕业后做成功所需的事情的人，那么跳过商学院并通过阅读本书来学习商业基础可能是你做过的最佳决定。
If you’re the type of person who’s capable of getting into a top MBA program and doing what it takes to succeed after graduation, skipping business school and learning the fundamentals of business by reading this book may be the best decision you ever make.
您将在本书中学到什么
What You’ll Learn in This Book
当你第一次开始研究一个领域时，似乎你必须记住无数的东西。你不知道。你需要的是确定支配该领域的核心原则——通常是三到十二条。你认为你必须记住的数百万件事只是核心原则的各种组合。
When you first start to study a field, it seems like you have to memorize a zillion things. You don’t. What you need is to identify the core principles—generally three to twelve of them—that govern the field. The million things you thought you had to memorize are simply various combinations of the core principles.
—约翰·T·里德 ( JOHN T. REED)，房地产投资者和《成功》一书的作者
—JOHN T. REED, REAL ESTATE INVESTOR AND AUTHOR OF SUCCEEDING
本书旨在向您传授良好商业实践的基础知识。以下是您将学到的内容的快速预览：
This book is designed to teach you the fundamentals of sound business practice. Here’s a quick preview of what you’ll learn:
企业如何运作。一个成功的企业，粗略地定义，提供 (1) 一些有价值的东西， (2) 其他人想要或需要的东西， (3) 他们愿意支付的价格，以 (4) 满足客户需求和期望的方式，因此(5) 该企业带来足够的利润，使所有者值得继续经营。第 1 章到第 5 章中的概念共同描述了每个企业的运作方式以及您可以采取哪些措施来改善结果。
How businesses work. A successful business, roughly defined, provides (1) something of value that (2) other people want or need at (3) a price they’re willing to pay, in a way that (4) satisfies the customer’s needs and expectations so that (5) the business brings in sufficient profit to make it worthwhile for the owners to continue operation. Together, the concepts in chapters 1 to 5 describe how every business operates and what you can do to improve your results.
人们如何工作。每个企业都是由人创造的，并通过造福他人而生存。要了解企业的运作方式，您需要深入了解人们如何做出决策、根据这些决策采取行动以及与他人沟通。第 6 章到第 8 章向您介绍了几个主要的心理学概念，这些概念描述了人类思维如何处理世界，如何以更有效和高效的方式工作，以及如何建立和加强专业关系。
How people work. Every business is created by people and survives by benefiting other people. To understand how businesses work, you need a firm understanding of how people make decisions, act on those decisions, and communicate with others. Chapters 6 to 8 introduce you to a few major concepts in psychology that describe how the human mind processes the world, how you can work in a more effective and efficient way, and how you can create and strengthen professional relationships.
系统如何工作。企业是复杂的系统，有许多活动部件，这些部件存在于更复杂的系统中，如行业、社会、文化和政府。第 9 章到第 11 章将帮助您了解复杂系统的工作原理，并帮助您分析现有系统并找到改进它们的方法，而不会引起无法预料的后果。
How systems work. Businesses are complex systems with many moving parts that exist within even more complex systems like industries, societies, cultures, and governments. Chapters 9 to 11 will help you understand how complex systems work, as well as help you analyze existing systems and find ways to improve them without provoking unanticipated consequences.
以下是一些您不应该期望的事情：
Here are a few things you shouldn’t expect:
管理和领导超负荷。许多商业资源（以及所有商学院）将管理和领导技能与商业技能混为一谈；他们不是一回事。虽然管理和领导力在商业实践中很重要，但它们并不是商业教育的全部和最终目的：没有扎实的商业知识，就有可能组织和领导一群人实现错误的目标. 商业是关于创造利润并向付费客户提供有价值的优惠；管理和领导是实现这一目标的手段。我们将在第 8 章讨论有效管理和领导的基本要素，但要在适当的背景下进行。
Management and leadership overload. Many business resources (and all business schools) conflate management and leadership skills with business skills; they’re not the same thing. While management and leadership are important in the practice of business, they aren’t the be-all and end-all of business education: without solid business knowledge, it’s possible to organize and lead a group of people toward the accomplishment of the wrong objectives. Business is about the profitable creation and delivery of valuable offers to paying customers; management and leadership are a means to this end. We’ll discuss the essentials of effective management and leadership in chapter 8, but in their proper context.
CFA/CPA级别的财务和会计。财务和会计是非常重要的主题，我们将在第 5 章讨论基本概念和实践，包括常见错误和陷阱。也就是说，我们有许多主题需要探索，而金融并不是本书的唯一重点。对财务分析和会计准则的深入研究比这本书要多写了数千本书，除非你打算成为一名特许金融分析师 (CFA) 或注册会计师 (CPA)，否则你应该学习这些主题的基础知识，但将细节留给专家。
CFA/CPA-level finance and accounting. Finance and accounting are very important topics, and we’ll discuss the essential concepts and practices in chapter 5, including common mistakes and pitfalls. That said, we have many topics to explore, and finance is not the sole focus of this book. Deep examinations of financial analysis and accounting standards have filled thousands of books much longer than this one, and unless you plan on becoming a chartered financial analyst (CFA) or a certified public accountant (CPA), you should learn the basics of these topics, but leave the details to the specialists.
幸运的是，没有必要重新发明轮子：关于财务和会计的好书已经存在。如果您有兴趣在完成第 5 章后更详细地探索这些主题，我推荐以下书籍：
Fortunately, there’s no need to reinvent the wheel: great books on finance and accounting already exist. If you’re interested in exploring these topics in more detail after completing chapter 5, I recommend the following books:
Karen Berman 和 Joe Knight的企业家金融情报
Financial Intelligence for Entrepreneurs by Karen Berman and Joe Knight
简单的数字，直截了当的谈话，巨大的利润！通过格雷格克拉布特里
Simple Numbers, Straight Talk, Big Profits! by Greg Crabtree
迈克·派博 (Mike Piper)使会计变得简单
Accounting Made Simple by Mike Piper
如何阅读John A. Tracy的财务报告
How to Read a Financial Report by John A. Tracy
此外，如果您想更深入地探索这些主题，还可以使用MBA 数学 ( http://mbamath.com ) 和 Bionic Turtle ( http://bionicturtle.com ) 等在线课程。（许多商学院和企业金融培训项目在注册前推荐或要求这些课程。）
In addition, online courses like MBA Math (http://mbamath.com) and Bionic Turtle (http://bionicturtle.com) are available if you want to explore these topics in even greater depth. (Many business schools and corporate-finance training programs recommend or require these courses prior to enrollment.)
定量分析和建模。我们将在第 10 章讨论测量和分析的基础知识，但这本书不会把你变成华尔街的“宽客”或雄心勃勃的电子表格骑师。如果使用得当，统计和定量分析是非常有用的技能，但实际的技术因情况而异，超出了本书的范围。如果你有兴趣在阅读完第 10 章后学习更多关于统计分析的知识，我推荐：
Quantitative analysis and modeling. We’ll discuss the fundamentals of measurement and analysis in chapter 10, but this book won’t turn you into a Wall Street “quant” or a high-flying spreadsheet jockey. Statistics and quantitative analysis are very useful skills when used appropriately, but the actual techniques are very situational and beyond the scope of this book. If you’re interested in learning more about statistical analysis after reading chapter 10, I recommend:
Uri Bram 的统计思考
Thinking Statistically by Uri Bram
达雷尔·赫夫 (Darrell Huff) 的《如何用统计数据说谎》
How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff
将数字转化为知识Jonathan Koomey 博士
Turning Numbers into Knowledge by Jonathan Koomey, PhD
要检查更高级的分析方法， MG Bulmer的《统计原理》是很有用的参考资料。
For an examination of more advanced methods of analysis, Principles of Statistics by M. G. Bulmer is a useful reference.
如何使用本书
How to Use This Book
所有真正明智的想法都已经被思考了数千次；但要使它们真正属于我们，我们必须诚实地反复思考它们，直到它们在我们的个人经历中扎根。
All truly wise thoughts have been thought already thousands of times; but to make them truly ours, we must think them over again honestly, until they take root in our personal experience.
——约翰·沃尔夫冈·冯·歌德，诗人、戏剧家和博学者
—JOHANN WOLFGANG VON GOETHE, POET, DRAMATIST, AND POLYMATH
以下是一些可以帮助您从本书中获得最大收益的提示：
Here are a few tips that will help you get the most from this book:
浏览、浏览和扫描。您无需阅读一本书的封面即可受益：浏览可以让您以更少的努力获得更好的结果。随意浏览和预览概念，直到找到吸引您注意力的部分，然后承诺将这个概念应用到您的工作中几天。你会开始注意到你的工作质量以及你“像商人一样思考”的能力方面的显着差异。
Browse, skim, and scan. You don’t need to read a book cover to cover to benefit: browsing can give you better results with less effort. Feel free to browse and preview concepts until you find a section that grabs your attention, then commit to applying that concept to your work for a few days. You’ll begin to notice significant differences in the quality of your work as well as in your ability to “think like a businessperson.”
随身携带笔记本和笔。本书的目的是为您提供有关如何使事情变得更好的想法，因此请准备好捕捉您的想法；以后复习主要概念会更容易。您的笔记本还可以让您轻松地从记笔记转变为在您想到时制定详细的行动计划。29
Keep a notebook and pen handy. The purpose of this book is to give you ideas about how to make things better, so be prepared to capture your thoughts as you have them; it’ll make it easier to review the major concepts later. Your notebook will also make it easy to shift from taking notes to creating detailed action plans as they occur to you.29
经常复习这本书。将它放在靠近您工作的地方，以便您在工作时可以参考它，尤其是在开始新项目之前。重复导致精通：你将这些概念内化得越好，你就越能改善你的结果。我还建议在你的日历中设置一个提醒，每隔几个月回顾一下这本书或你的笔记，以加强你的理解并激发新的想法。
Review this book often. Keep it close to where you work so you can refer to it as you work, particularly before starting a new project. Repetition leads to mastery: the better you internalize these concepts, the more you’ll improve your results. I also recommend setting a reminder in your calendar to review this book or your notes every few months to reinforce your understanding and spark new ideas.
与您的同事讨论这些想法。当与您一起工作的每个人都知道这些概念并使用相同的语言来讨论如何将它们应用于您的业务时，伟大的事情就会发生。在每个概念之后，我都包含一个指向在线参考页面的链接，您可以将其包含在电子邮件、提案、博客文章或其他通信中。这有助于确保每个人都在同一页面上，特别是如果收件人不熟悉您所引用的概念。
Discuss these ideas with your colleagues. Great things happen when everyone you work with knows these concepts and uses the same language to discuss how they apply to your business. After every concept, I’ve included a link to an online reference page, which you can include in an email, proposal, blog post, or other communication. This helps ensure everyone is on the same page, particularly if the recipient isn’t familiar with the concept you’re referencing.
总有更多值得探索的地方。每个想法都有很多应用，不可能在一本书中探讨这些概念的每一个分支。如果您想了解更多关于特定心智模型的信息，商业文献世界中有许多重要资源可以加深您的理解。和我一起访问 personalmba.com，更详细地探索这些想法，并学习如何将它们应用到您的日常生活和工作中。
There’s always more to explore. Each idea has many applications, and it’s impossible to explore every ramification of these concepts in a single book. There are many great resources in the world of business literature that can deepen your understanding if you’d like to learn more about a particular mental model. Join me at personalmba.com to explore these ideas in more detail and learn how to apply them to your daily life and work.
让我们开始。
Let’s begin.
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创造价值
VALUE CREATION
做人们想要的东西。. . 没有什么比刚刚变得可以修复的未满足需求更有价值的了。如果您发现可以为很多人修复的东西，那么您就发现了一座金矿。
Make something people want . . . There’s nothing more valuable than an unmet need that is just becoming fixable. If you find something broken that you can fix for a lot of people, you’ve found a gold mine.
—PAUL GRAHAM，Y COMBINATOR 的联合创始人、风险投资家和 PAULGRAHAM.COM 的评论家
—PAUL GRAHAM, COFOUNDER OF Y COMBINATOR, VENTURE CAPITALIST, AND ESSAYIST AT PAULGRAHAM.COM
每个成功的企业都会创造一些有价值的东西。这个世界充满了以某种方式改善他人生活的机会，作为一名商人，你的工作就是找出人们没有足够的东西，然后找到一种方法来提供它们。
Every successful business creates something of value. The world is full of opportunities to make other people’s lives better in some way, and your job as a businessperson is to identify things that people don’t have enough of, then find a way to provide them.
您创造的价值可以采用多种不同形式中的一种，但目的始终相同：让别人的生活更美好一点。没有价值创造，企业就无法存在——除非你有有价值的东西可以交易，否则你无法与他人进行交易。
The value you create can take on one of several different forms, but the purpose is always the same: to make someone else’s life a little bit better. Without value creation, a business can’t exist—you can’t transact with others unless you have something valuable to trade.
世界上最好的企业是那些为他人创造最大价值的企业。一些企业通过为许多人提供一点价值而蓬勃发展，而另一些企业则专注于为少数人提供大量价值。无论如何，你为他人创造的真正价值越多，你的企业就会越好，你就会变得越繁荣。
The best businesses in the world are the ones that create the most value for other people. Some businesses thrive by providing a little value to many, and others focus on providing a lot of value to only a few people. Regardless, the more real value you create for other people, the better your business will be and the more prosperous you’ll become.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/value-creation/
每个企业的五个部分
The Five Parts of Every Business
企业是一个可重复的赚钱过程。其他一切都是爱好。
A business is a repeatable process that makes money. Everything else is a hobby.
—PAUL FREET，连续创业者和商业化专家
—PAUL FREET, SERIAL ENTREPRENEUR AND COMMERCIALIZATION EXPERT
粗略地定义，业务是一个可重复的过程：
Roughly defined, a business is a repeatable process that:
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创造并交付有价值的东西。. .
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Creates and delivers something of value . . .
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其他人想要或需要的。. .
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That other people want or need . . .
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以他们愿意支付的价格。. .
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At a price they’re willing to pay . . .
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以满足客户需求和期望的方式。. .
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In a way that satisfies the customer’s needs and expectations . . .
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这样企业就可以带来足够的利润，使所有者值得继续经营。
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So that the business brings in enough Profit to make it worthwhile for the owners to continue operation.
无论您是经营一家独资企业还是一个价值数十亿美元的品牌都没有关系。去掉这五个因素中的任何一个，你就没有生意——你有别的东西。不为他人创造价值的冒险是一种爱好。不吸引注意力的冒险是失败的。不出售其创造的价值的企业是非营利组织。不兑现承诺的企业是骗局。一家没有带来足够资金维持运营的企业不会存在很长时间。
It doesn’t matter if you’re running a solo venture or a billion-dollar brand. Take any one of these five factors away and you don’t have a business—you have something else. A venture that doesn’t create value for others is a hobby. A venture that doesn’t attract Attention is a flop. A venture that doesn’t sell the value it creates is a nonprofit. A venture that doesn’t deliver what it promises is a scam. A venture that doesn’t bring in enough money to keep operating is not going to exist very long.
在核心，每个业务都是五个相互依赖的流程的集合，每个流程都流入下一个流程：
At the core, every business is a collection of five Interdependent processes, each of which flows into the next:
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价值创造——发现人们需要或想要什么，然后创造它。
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Value Creation—discovering what people need or want, then creating it.
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市场营销——吸引注意力并建立对您所创造产品的需求。
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Marketing—attracting attention and building demand for what you’ve created.
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销售——将潜在客户转变为付费客户。
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Sales—turning prospective customers into paying customers.
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价值交付——为您的客户提供您所承诺的并确保他们满意。
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Value Delivery—giving your customers what you’ve promised and ensuring that they’re satisfied.
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财务——带来足够的钱来继续前进，让你的努力变得有价值。
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Finance—bringing in enough money to keep going and make your effort worthwhile.
如果这五件事听起来很简单，那是因为它们很简单。商业不是（也从来不是）火箭科学——它是一个发现问题并找到解决问题的方法的过程，这对双方都有好处。任何试图让业务听起来比这更复杂的人要么试图给您留下深刻印象，要么试图向您推销您不需要的东西。
If these five things sound simple, it’s because they are. Business is not (and has never been) rocket science—it’s a process of identifying a problem and finding a way to solve it that benefits both parties. Anyone who tries to make business sound more complicated than this is either trying to impress you or trying to sell you something you don’t need.
每个企业的五个部分是每个好的商业理念和商业计划的基础。如果您可以为任何业务定义这五个流程中的每一个，您将完全了解它的工作原理。如果您正在考虑开始一项新业务，那么定义这些流程可能是什么样子是最好的起点。如果您不能根据这些核心流程来描述或绘制您的商业理念，那么您对它的理解还不够深入，无法使其发挥作用。1个
The Five Parts of Every Business are the basis of every good business idea and business plan. If you can define each of these five processes for any business, you’ll have a complete understanding of how it works. If you’re thinking about starting a new business, defining what these processes might look like is the best place to start. If you can’t describe or diagram your business idea in terms of these core processes, you don’t understand it well enough to make it work.1
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/5-parts-of-every-business/
具有经济价值的技能
Economically Valuable Skills
不要到处说世界欠你一个生活。世界不欠你什么——它先来了。
Don’t go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing—it was here first.
——马克吐温，伟大的美国小说家
—MARK TWAIN, GREAT AMERICAN NOVELIST
如果您想提高您作为商人的价值，请专注于提高与每项业务的五个部分相关的技能。
If you want to improve your value as a businessperson, focus on improving skills related to the Five Parts of Every Business.
并非每项技能或知识领域都具有经济价值，这没关系——有许多事情值得追求，仅仅是为了放松或享受。您可能喜欢激流漂流，但除非您将自己的技能用于造福他人，否则很少有人会付钱让您在急流中冲浪。然而，从个人享受到产品和服务的飞跃，您会发现自己得到了报酬——许多喜欢冒险的人愿意为漂流设备和向导买单。
Not every skill or area of knowledge is Economically Valuable, and that’s okay—there are many things worth pursuing for the sake of relaxation or enjoyment alone. You may enjoy white-water rafting, but it’s very unlikely anyone will pay you to shoot the rapids unless you apply your skills for the benefit of others. Make the leap from personal enjoyment to Products and Services, however, and you’ll find yourself getting paid—plenty of adventurous souls are willing to pay for rafting equipment and guides.
正如迈克尔·马斯特森在《准备、开火、瞄准》中所建议的那样，不要指望与每项业务的五个部分无关的技能能获得经济回报。找到一种使用它们来创造经济价值的方法，您就会找到一种获得报酬的方法。
As Michael Masterson suggests in Ready, Fire, Aim, don’t expect skills that aren’t related to the Five Parts of Every Business to be economically rewarded. Find a way to use them to create Economic Value and you’ll find a way to get paid.
帮助您创造价值、营销、销售、交付的任何技能或知识价值，或管理财务具有经济价值——这些是我们将在本书中讨论的技能。
Any skill or knowledge that helps you create value, market, sell, deliver value, or manage finances is Economically Valuable—these are the skills we’ll discuss in this book.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/economically-valuable-skills/
市场的铁律
The Iron Law of the Market
市场最重要。一流的团队或出色的产品都无法挽回糟糕的市场。. . . 不存在的市场不在乎你有多聪明。
Market matters most. And neither a stellar team nor a fantastic product will redeem a bad market. . . . Markets that don’t exist don’t care how smart you are.
—马克·安德烈森，风险投资家和 Netscape 的联合创始人
—MARC ANDREESSEN, VENTURE CAPITALIST AND COFOUNDER OF NETSCAPE
如果你举办派对却没有人出现怎么办？在商业中，它一直在发生。
What if you throw a party and nobody shows up? In business, it happens all the time.
Dean Kamen 是一位著名且多产的发明家，他的发明包括斯特林发动机、世界上第一个可穿戴胰岛素泵和净水设备，他投入了 1 亿多美元用于开发赛格威 PT，这是一种价值 5,000 美元的两轮自动驾驶汽车。他声称平衡踏板车将彻底改变个人交通工具，“就像汽车取代了马和马车一样。” 当 Segway 于 2002 年向公众推出时，该公司宣布预计每年销售 5 万台。
Dean Kamen, a renowned and prolific inventor whose creations include the Stirling engine, the world’s first wearable insulin pump, and water-purification devices, poured more than $100 million into the development of the Segway PT, a $5,000, two-wheeled, self-balancing scooter that he claimed would revolutionize personal transportation “in the same way that the car replaced the horse and buggy.” When the Segway was made available to the public in 2002, the company announced that it expected to sell fifty thousand units every year.
经营五年后，公司共售出 23,000 台——不到最初目标的 10%。（该公司的财务记录是保密的，但可以肯定地说它们看起来并不好。2015 年，该公司被出售给 Ninebot，这是一家销售廉价电动滑板车的竞争对手，交易金额未公开。）
Five years into the business, the company had sold a total of twenty-three thousand units—less than 10 percent of the initial goal. (The company’s financial records are private, but it’s safe to say they didn’t look good. In 2015, the company was sold to Ninebot, a competitor that sells inexpensive electric scooters, for an undisclosed sum.)
问题不在于产品设计不当。使 Segway 发挥作用的技术非常先进，而且优势显着：Segway 是一种方便、绿色的城市汽车替代品。问题是，很少有人愿意花 5,000 美元购买一种看起来很傻的替代步行或骑自行车的方式——Kamen 预期的巨大市场并不存在。
The problem wasn’t that the product was poorly designed. The technology that makes the Segway work is sophisticated, and the benefits are significant: the Segway is a convenient, green urban car replacement. The problem was that very few people cared enough to spend $5,000 on a goofy-looking alternative to walking or riding a bike—the massive market that Kamen expected didn’t exist.
同样的事情每天都发生在新企业身上。没有足够的收入来维持它，任何企业都会失败。您的收入取决于人们对您所提供产品的需求。
The same thing happens to new businesses every day. Without enough revenue to sustain it, any business will fail. Your revenue is dependent on people wanting what you have to offer.
每个企业都从根本上受到其试图服务的市场规模和质量的限制。市场铁律是冷酷、严酷和无情的：如果你没有一大群人想要你所提供的东西，那么你建立一个可行的企业的机会就非常渺茫。
Every business is fundamentally limited by the size and quality of the market it attempts to serve. The Iron Law of the Market is cold, hard, and unforgiving: if you don’t have a large group of people who want what you have to offer, your chances of building a viable business are very slim.
最好的方法是专注于制造人们想要购买的东西。创造没人想要的东西是一种浪费。市场研究在商业上等同于“三思而后行”。约翰·马林斯 (John Mullins) 的《新商业道路测试》( The New Business Road Test )等书籍可以帮助您从一开始就确定有前景的市场，从而增加您的新企业成功的可能性。
The best approach is to focus on making things people want to buy. Creating something no one wants is a waste. Market research is the business equivalent of “Look before you leap.” Books like The New Business Road Test by John Mullins can help you identify promising markets from the outset, increasing the probability that your new venture will be a success.
在接下来的几节中，我们将探讨如何在投入时间和辛苦赚来的钱来创造新事物之前弄清楚人们想要什么和需要什么。
In the next few sections, we’ll explore how to figure out what people want and need before investing your time and hard-earned money into creating something new.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/iron-law-of-the-market/
核心人类驱动力
Core Human Drives
了解人类需求是满足这些需求的一半工作。
Understanding human needs is half the job of meeting them.
——阿德莱·史蒂文森二世，伊利诺伊州政治家和前州长
—ADLAI STEVENSON II, POLITICIAN AND FORMER GOVERNOR OF ILLINOIS
如果你要建立一个成功的企业，对人们想要什么有一个基本的了解是很有用的。关于人们想要什么的最著名的一般理论是心理学家亚伯拉罕马斯洛于 1943 年提出的马斯洛需求层次理论。马斯洛的理论是，人们在追求所需事物的过程中会经历五个一般阶段：生理学、安全感、归属感/爱、尊重和自我实现。生理学代表了人类需求的“最低”水平，而自我实现（探索一个人的先天潜力）是“最高”的。
If you’re going to build a successful business, it’s useful to have a basic understanding of what people want. The most well-known general theory of what people want is Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, proposed by the psychologist Abraham Maslow in 1943. Maslow’s theory was that people progress through five general stages in the pursuit of what they need: physiology, safety, belonging/love, esteem, and self-actualization. Physiology represents the “lowest” level of human need, while self-actualization (the exploration of a person’s innate potential) is the “highest.”
在马斯洛的层次结构中，每个较低层次的需求都必须得到满足，然后才能专注于较高层次的需求。如果你没有足够的食物或身体处于危险之中，你可能不会太在意其他人有多喜欢你或你正在经历多少个人成长。
In Maslow’s hierarchy, each lower-level need must be met before a person can focus on higher-order needs. If you don’t have enough food or you’re in physical danger, you’re probably not paying too much attention to how much other people like you or how much personal growth you’re experiencing.
实际上，我更喜欢 Clayton Alderfer 版本的马斯洛层次结构，他称之为“ERG 理论”：人们按此顺序寻求存在、相关性和成长。当人们拥有生存所需的东西时，他们会继续交朋友和寻找伴侣。当他们满意时在他们的人际关系中，他们专注于做自己喜欢的事情，并在他们感兴趣的事情上提高自己的技能。首先是存在，然后是相关性，然后是成长。
In practice, I prefer Clayton Alderfer’s version of Maslow’s hierarchy, which he called “ERG theory”: people seek existence, relatedness, and growth, in that order. When people have what they need to survive, they move on to making friends and finding mates. When they’re satisfied with their relationships, they focus on doing things they enjoy and improving their skills in things that interest them. First existence, then relatedness, then growth.
ERG 理论解释了人类欲望的一般优先顺序，但没有解释人们用来满足这些欲望的方法。为此，我们必须求助于其他人类行为理论。根据哈佛商学院教授 Paul Lawrence 和 Nitin Nohria，《驱动：人性如何塑造我们的选择》一书的作者，所有人都有四种核心人类驱动力，它们对我们的决定和行动有着深远的影响：
ERG theory explains the general priority of human desires, but not the methods people use to satisfy them. For that, we must turn to other theories of human action. According to Harvard Business School professors Paul Lawrence and Nitin Nohria, the authors of Driven: How Human Nature Shapes Our Choices, all human beings have four Core Human Drives that have a profound influence on our decisions and actions:
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获得的驱动力——获得或收集实物以及地位、权力和影响力等非物质品质的愿望。建立在收购驱动力之上的企业包括零售商、投资经纪公司和政治咨询公司。承诺让我们变得富有、出名、有影响力或强大的公司与这种驱动力有关。
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The Drive to Acquire—the desire to obtain or collect physical objects, as well as immaterial qualities like status, power, and influence. Businesses built on the drive to acquire include retailers, investment brokerages, and political consulting companies. Companies that promise to make us wealthy, famous, influential, or powerful connect to this drive.
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The Drive to Bond——渴望通过与他人建立柏拉图式或浪漫的关系来感受被重视和被爱。建立在建立联系的基础上的企业包括餐馆、会议和约会服务。承诺让我们变得有吸引力、受欢迎或受到高度重视的公司与这种驱动力有关。
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The Drive to Bond—the desire to feel valued and loved by forming relationships with others, either platonic or romantic. Businesses built on the drive to bond include restaurants, conferences, and dating services. Companies that promise to make us attractive, well-liked, or highly regarded connect to this drive.
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学习的动力——满足我们好奇心的愿望。建立在学习动力之上的企业包括学术项目、图书出版商和培训研讨会。承诺让我们更有知识或更有能力的公司与这种驱动力有关。
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The Drive to Learn—the desire to satisfy our curiosity. Businesses built on the drive to learn include academic programs, book publishers, and training workshops. Companies that promise to make us more knowledgeable or competent connect to this drive.
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捍卫的动力——保护我们自己、我们所爱的人和我们的财产的愿望。建立在捍卫动力之上的企业包括家庭报警系统制造商、保险公司、武术培训项目和法律服务。承诺保护我们安全、消除问题或防止坏事发生的公司都连接到此驱动器。
劳伦斯和诺里亚错过了第五个核心驱动力：
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The Drive to Defend—the desire to protect ourselves, our loved ones, and our property. Businesses built on the drive to defend include home alarm system manufacturers, insurers, martial arts training programs, and legal services. Companies that promise to keep us safe, eliminate a problem, or prevent bad things from happening connect to this drive.
There’s a fifth core drive that Lawrence and Nohria missed:
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感受的驱动力——对新的感官刺激、强烈的情感体验、愉悦、兴奋、娱乐和预期。建立在感受驱动力之上的企业包括电影院、商场、音乐会发起人和运动队。承诺给我们带来快乐、刺激或让我们期待与这种驱动力联系起来的公司。
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The Drive to Feel—the desire for new sensory stimuli, intense emotional experiences, pleasure, excitement, entertainment, and anticipation. Businesses built on the drive to feel include movie theaters, arcades, concert promoters, and sports teams. Companies that promise to give us pleasure, thrill us, or give us something to look forward to connect with this drive.
每当一群人在其中一个或多个领域有未满足的需求时，就会形成一个市场来满足这种需求。因此，您的报价所涉及的驱动力越多，它对您的潜在市场的吸引力就越大。
Whenever a group of people have an unmet need in one or more of these areas, a market will form to satisfy that need. As a result, the more drives your offer connects with, the more attractive it will be to your potential market.
核心是，所有成功的企业都出售金钱、地位、权力、爱、知识、保护、快乐和兴奋的某种组合的承诺。您越清楚地阐明您的报价如何满足这些驱动器中的一个或多个，您的报价就会变得越有吸引力。
At the core, all successful businesses sell the promise of some combination of money, status, power, love, knowledge, protection, pleasure, and excitement. The better you articulate how your offer satisfies one or more of these drives, the more attractive your offer will become.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/core-human-drives/
社会地位
Social Status
一个社会如果把卓越的管道系统视为一种卑微的活动而嗤之以鼻，而容忍粗劣的哲学是因为它是一种崇高的活动，那么这个社会将既没有好的管道系统也没有好的哲学：它的管道和它的理论都站不住脚。
The society which scorns excellence in plumbing as a humble activity and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because it is an exalted activity will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy: neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water.
—约翰·W·加德纳，卡内基公司前总裁
—JOHN W. GARDNER, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE CARNEGIE CORPORATION
除了理解Core Human Drives之外，重要的是要理解人类是社会生物。像许多其他哺乳动物一样，人类进化到有一个啄食顺序，一个群体中权力或地位的相对等级。与其他人争夺地位和权力带来了很多好处，包括获得食物、配偶、资源以及其他群体成员的保护。
In addition to understanding Core Human Drives, it’s important to understand that humans are social creatures. Like many other mammals, humans evolved to have a pecking order, a relative ranking of Power or status in a group. Competing with other people for status and power brought many benefits, including access to food, mates, resources, and the protection of other group members.
地位考虑不再是生存的关键，但我们的大脑发展起来非常重视社会地位。因此，对地位的考虑会影响一个人的绝大多数决定和行动。
Status considerations are no longer as critical to survival, but our brains developed to place a very high priority on Social Status. As a result, status considerations influence the vast majority of a person’s decisions and actions.
社会地位是一种普遍现象：神经典型的人关心别人对他们的看法，并花费大量精力来追踪他们与其他成员相比的相对地位团体。当提升地位的机会出现时，大多数人都会抓住机会。当在不同的选项之间做出选择时，人们会选择感知状态最高的选项。
Social Status is a universal phenomenon: neurotypical human beings care about what other people think of them and spend a significant amount of energy tracking their relative status compared to other members of their group. When opportunities to increase status appear, most people will seize them. When given a choice between different alternatives, people will choose the option with the highest perceived status.
一般而言，我们喜欢与我们认为强大、重要或排他性或表现出其他高地位品质或行为的人和组织交往。我们还想确保其他人知道我们的身份：为了证明，请检查人们在他们的社交媒体个人资料上发布的内容。
In general, we like to be associated with people and organizations that we think are powerful, important, or exclusive or that exhibit other high-status qualities or behaviors. We also like to ensure other people are aware of our status: for proof, examine what people post on their social-media profiles.
社会地位是人类生活的一个事实；它不一定是坏事或需要避免的事情。相反：追求地位可以激励人们完成令人惊叹的事情。用哲学家和社会评论家阿兰德波顿的话来说，“如果一个人感到成功，那么成功的动力就会很小。”
Social Status is a fact of human life; it’s not necessarily bad or something to be avoided. On the contrary: status seeking can motivate people to accomplish amazing things. In the words of Alain de Botton, a philosopher and social critic, “If one felt successful, there’d be so little incentive to be successful.”
如果不加抑制，这种对地位的渴望会导致人们做出错误的决定：想想有人买了大房子、豪车和名牌服装，结果却以破产或负债累累告终。作为个人，在做出购买决定时注意您对地位的重视程度非常有用，尤其是当有其他选择可以以更低的成本满足相同的需求或愿望时。
Unchecked, this urge toward status can lead people to make poor decisions: think of someone who purchases a large house, a luxury car, and designer clothing, only to end up bankrupt or in severe debt. As an individual, paying attention to how much you value status is useful when making buying decisions, particularly when there are other options that can meet the same needs or desires at a lower cost.
作为商业专业人士，重要的是要了解状态考虑因素存在于核心人类驱动力的每个级别。当您向新的潜在客户提出要约时，他们会估计您的要约将如何影响他们的社会地位。在您的报价中建立状态信号几乎总是一种增加其对目标市场吸引力的有效方式。
As a business professional, it’s important to understand that status considerations are present in every level of the Core Human Drives. When you make an offer to a new prospect, they will estimate how your offer will influence their social status. Building Status Signals into your offer is almost always an effective way to increase its appeal to your target market.
参考链接： personalmba.com/social-status/
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/social-status/
评估市场的十种方法
Ten Ways to Evaluate a Market
人们常常在错误的事情上努力工作。做正确的事情可能比努力工作更重要。
So often people are working hard at the wrong thing. Working on the right thing is probably more important than working hard.
—CATERINA FAKE，FLICKR 和 HUNCH 的联合创始人
—CATERINA FAKE, COFOUNDER OF FLICKR AND HUNCH
如果您正在考虑开始一项新业务或将现有业务扩展到一个新市场，那么在您跳跃之前进行一些研究是值得的。
If you’re thinking of starting a new business or expanding an existing business into a new market, it pays to do some research before you leap.
评估市场的十种方法提供了一种纸巾背面的方法，您可以使用它来确定任何潜在市场的吸引力。以 0 到 10 的等级对以下十个因素中的每一个进行评分，其中 0 表示糟糕，10 表示非常棒。如有疑问，请保守估计：
The Ten Ways to Evaluate a Market provide a back-of-the-napkin method you can use to identify the attractiveness of any potential market. Rate each of the ten factors below on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is terrible and 10 fantastic. When in doubt, be conservative in your estimate:
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紧急。人们现在有多想要或需要这个？（租一部老电影的紧迫性很低；在首映之夜看到一部新电影的首映是很紧迫的，因为它只会发生一次。）
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Urgency. How badly do people want or need this right now? (Renting an old movie is low urgency; seeing the first showing of a new movie on opening night is high urgency, since it only happens once.)
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市场规模。有多少人在购买这样的东西？（水下编篮课程的市场很小；癌症治疗的市场很大。）
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Market Size. How many people are purchasing things like this? (The market for underwater basket-weaving courses is very small; the market for cancer cures is massive.)
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定价潜力。典型购买者愿意为解决方案支付的最高价格是多少？（棒棒糖售价 0.05 美元；航空母舰售价数十亿美元。）
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Pricing Potential. What is the highest price a typical purchaser would be willing to spend for a solution? (Lollipops sell for $0.05; aircraft carriers sell for billions.)
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客户获取成本。获得新客户有多容易？平均而言，促成一次销售需要多少资金和精力？（建在交通繁忙的州际公路上的餐馆很少花钱来吸引新顾客。政府承包商可能会花费数百万美元来达成重大采购交易。）
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Cost of Customer Acquisition. How easy is it to acquire a new customer? On average, how much will it cost to generate a sale, in both money and effort? (Restaurants built on high-traffic interstate highways spend little to bring in new customers. Government contractors can spend millions landing major procurement deals.)
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价值交付成本。创造和交付所提供的价值需要多少资金和精力？（通过互联网传送文件几乎是免费的；发明产品和建造工厂要花费数百万美元。）
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Cost of Value Delivery. How much will it cost to create and deliver the value offered, in both money and effort? (Delivering files via the internet is almost free; inventing a product and building a factory costs millions.)
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报价的唯一性。您的报价与市场上的竞争产品相比有多独特，潜在竞争对手复制您的难易程度如何？（有很多美发沙龙，但很少有公司提供私人太空旅行。）
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Uniqueness of Offer. How unique is your offer versus competing offerings in the market, and how easy is it for potential competitors to copy you? (There are many hair salons but very few companies that offer private space travel.)
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加快上市速度。你多久可以创造出一些东西来卖？（你可以在几分钟内为邻居修剪草坪；开一家银行可能需要数年时间。）
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Speed to Market. How soon can you create something to sell? (You can offer to mow a neighbor’s lawn in minutes; opening a bank can take years.)
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前期投资。在准备出售之前，您需要投资多少？（做管家只需要一套便宜的清洁用品，要开采金矿，需要百万购买土地和挖掘设备。）
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Up-front Investment. How much will you have to invest before you’re ready to sell? (To be a housekeeper, all you need is a set of inexpensive cleaning products. To mine for gold, you need millions to purchase land and excavating equipment.)
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追加销售潜力。您是否也可以向采购客户提供相关的二次报价？（购买剃须刀的顾客还需要剃须膏和额外的刀片；买一个 Frisbee 就不需要另一个，除非你弄丢了。）
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Upsell Potential. Are there related secondary offers that you could also present to purchasing customers? (Customers who purchase razors need shaving cream and extra blades as well; buy a Frisbee and you won’t need another unless you lose it.)
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长青之势。创建初始报价后，您需要投入多少额外工作才能继续销售？（商业咨询需要持续不断的工作才能获得报酬；一本书可以制作一次，然后一遍又一遍地按原样出售。）
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Evergreen Potential. Once the initial offer has been created, how much additional work will you have to put in in order to continue selling? (Business consulting requires ongoing work to get paid; a book can be produced once and then sold over and over as is.)
完成评估后，将分数相加。如果分数是 50 分或以下，请转向另一个想法——有更好的地方可以投入您的精力和资源。如果分数是 75 或以上，你就有了一个非常有前途的想法——全速前进。50 到 75 之间的任何值都有可能支付账单，但如果没有大量的能源和资源投资，则不会是本垒打。
When you’re done with your assessment, add up the score. If the score is 50 or below, move on to another idea—there are better places to invest your energy and resources. If the score is 75 or above, you have a very promising idea—full speed ahead. Anything between 50 and 75 has the potential to pay the bills but won’t be a home run without a huge investment of energy and resources.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/ten-ways-to-evaluate-a-market/
竞争的隐藏好处
The Hidden Benefits of Competition
令人畏惧的竞争对手是这样一个人，他从不理会你，却一直在不断改进自己的业务。
The competitor to be feared is one who never bothers about you at all, but goes on making his own business better all the time.
—HENRY FORD，福特汽车公司创始人和装配线先驱
—HENRY FORD, FOUNDER OF THE FORD MOTOR COMPANY AND ASSEMBLY-LINE PIONEER
首次创业者最常见的经历之一是发现您出色的商业创意并不像您想象的那样新颖：其他企业已经在提供类似的产品或服务。这会动摇任何人的信心——毕竟，当别人正在做你想做的事情时，为什么还要费心呢？
One of the most common experiences of a first-time entrepreneur is discovering that your brilliant business idea isn’t as original as you’d thought: other businesses are already offering similar products or services. This would shake anyone’s confidence—after all, why bother when someone else is doing what you want to do?
振作起来：竞争有隐藏的好处。当任何两个市场在其他方面都具有同等吸引力时，您最好选择进入竞争激烈的市场。原因如下：这意味着您从一开始就知道这个想法有一个付费客户市场，从而消除了您最大的风险。
Cheer up: there are Hidden Benefits of Competition. When any two markets are equally attractive in other respects, you’re better off choosing to enter the one with competition. Here’s why: it means you know from the start there’s a market of paying customers for this idea, eliminating your biggest risk.
市场的存在意味着你已经站在市场铁律的正确一边，所以你可以花更多的时间来开发你的报价，而不是证明市场存在。如果有几个成功的企业为市场服务，你不必担心投资死胡同，因为你已经知道人们在购买。
The existence of a market means you’re already on the right side of the Iron Law of the Market, so you can spend more time developing your offer instead of proving a market exists. If there are several successful businesses serving a market, you don’t have to worry so much about investing in a dead end, since you already know that people are buying.
观察潜在竞争对手正在做什么的最好方法是成为客户。尽可能多地购买他们提供的东西。从客户的角度观察你的竞争对手可以教会你大量关于市场的知识：竞争对手提供什么价值，他们如何吸引注意力，他们收取什么费用，他们如何完成销售，他们如何让客户满意，他们如何处理问题，以及他们还没有满足什么需求。
The best way to observe what your potential competitors are doing is to become a customer. Buy as much as you can of what they offer. Observing your competition from the customer’s perspective can teach you an enormous amount about the market: what value the competitor provides, how they attract attention, what they charge, how they close sales, how they make customers happy, how they deal with issues, and what needs they aren’t yet serving.
作为付费客户，在您实施特定策略之前，您可以观察哪些在您的市场中行之有效，哪些行不通。从你的竞争对手那里学到你能学到的一切，然后创造出更有价值的东西。
As a paying customer, you get to observe what works in your market and what doesn’t before you commit to a particular strategy. Learn everything you can from your competition and then create something even more valuable.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/hidden-benefit-of-competition/
雇佣规则
The Mercenary Rule
把钱当作上帝，它会像魔鬼一样折磨你。
Make money your god and it will plague you like the devil.
——亨利·菲尔丁，十八世纪的小说家和讽刺作家
—HENRY FIELDING, EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY NOVELIST AND SATIRIST
成为一名雇佣兵是没有回报的——不要仅仅为了钱而创业。原因如下：创办和经营企业总是比您最初预期的付出更多的努力。
Becoming a Mercenary doesn’t pay—don’t start a business for the money alone. Here’s why: starting and running a business always takes more effort than you first expect.
即使您确定了一家可以自行运营的企业，建立运营企业所需的系统也需要坚持不懈和奉献精神。如果你对一个机会唯一感兴趣的是钱，你可能会在你找到垃圾填埋场底部的那桶金之前就放弃。
Even if you identify a business that will run itself, setting up the systems necessary to run the business requires persistence and dedication. If the only thing that interests you about an opportunity is the money, you’ll probably quit well before you find the pot of gold at the bottom of the landfill.
非常密切地关注你发现自己一遍又一遍地回来的事情。建立或完成任何事情都是一遍又一遍的事情。不要忽视吸引你的因素。诀窍是找到一个有吸引力的市场，让你足够感兴趣，让你每天都在改进你的产品。找到那个市场需要耐心和积极探索。
Pay very close attention to the things you find yourself coming back to over and over again. Building or finishing anything is a matter of starting over and over again; don’t ignore what pulls you. The trick is to find an attractive market that interests you enough to keep you improving your offering every single day. Finding that market is a matter of patience and active exploration.
也就是说，在调查之前不要忽视“无聊”的业务；如果你能在工作中找到让你感兴趣并留住你的某些方面参与，平凡的市场可能非常有吸引力。管道和垃圾收集等“肮脏”业务并不吸引人，但它们可能会非常有利可图，因为存在大量持续需求，而且愿意挺身而出满足需求的人相对较少。
That said, don’t ignore “boring” businesses until you investigate them; if you can find some aspect of the work that interests you and keeps you engaged, mundane markets can be quite attractive. “Dirty” businesses like plumbing and garbage collection aren’t sexy, but they can be quite lucrative because there’s a significant ongoing need combined with relatively few people willing to step up and meet the demand.
如果你找到了一种方法，让一个必要但乏味的市场变得有趣到足以去追求，你可能已经发现了一个等待开采的隐藏金矿。
If you find a way to make a necessary but dull market interesting enough to pursue, you may have discovered a hidden vein of gold waiting to be mined.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/mercenary-rule/
十字军规则
The Crusader Rule
热心者展示了他们信仰的力量，而明智者则展示了信仰的基础。
The zealous display the strength of their belief, while the judicious show the grounds of it.
—William Shenstone，18 世纪的诗人和景观设计师
—WILLIAM SHENSTONE, EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY POET AND LANDSCAPE DESIGNER
成为一名十字军也不会有任何回报。每隔一段时间，您就会发现一个如此迷人的想法，以至于很难客观地考虑它。众星齐放，天上的喇叭响起，突然间你有一种明确无误的印象，你找到了你的使命。
Being a Crusader doesn’t pay either. Every once in a while, you’ll find an idea so fascinating it becomes hard to think about it objectively. The stars align, heavenly trumpets blare, and suddenly you have the unmistakable impression that you’ve found your calling.
在所有的兴奋中，很容易忘记一个有趣的想法和一个可靠的企业之间往往存在巨大的差异。在你的乐观中，不要忘记谨慎：如果你付不起账单，改变世界是困难的。
In all the excitement, it’s easy to forget that there’s often a huge difference between an interesting idea and a solid business. In your optimism, forget ye not prudence: changing the world is difficult if you can’t pay the bills.
有些想法没有足够的市场支持业务，这没关系。这并不意味着您应该忽略它们：业余项目可以帮助您扩展知识、提高技能并尝试新的方法和技术。只要您不依赖副项目来产生收入，我就大力提倡进行副项目。一旦你的财务基础得到保障，就可以随心所欲地进行改革。
Some ideas don’t have enough of a market behind them to support a business, and that’s okay. That doesn’t mean you should ignore them: side projects can help you expand your knowledge, improve your skills, and experiment with new methods and techniques. I’m a huge advocate of pursuing side projects as long as you don’t rely on them to produce income. Once you have your financial bases covered, crusade all you want.
在尝试开展业务之前，请花时间使用评估市场的十种方法进行全面评估。如果你发现很难做到客观，找一个值得信赖的同事或顾问来帮助你，然后在你完全投入之前测试市场。花几个小时进行评估可以避免数月（或数年）的挫折和错误的努力。
Before attempting to launch a business, take the time to do a thorough evaluation using the Ten Ways to Evaluate a Market. If you’re finding it difficult to be objective, find a trusted colleague or adviser to help you, then test the market before you fully commit. A few hours spent in evaluation can prevent months (or years) of frustration and misplaced effort.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/crusader-rule/
十二种标准价值形式
Twelve Standard Forms of Value
价值不是内在的；它不在事物中。它在我们里面；这是人对其环境条件作出反应的方式。
Value is not intrinsic; it is not in things. It is within us; it is the way in which man reacts to the conditions of his environment.
——路德维希·冯·米塞斯，奥地利经济学家
—LUDWIG VON MISES, AUSTRIAN ECONOMIST
为了让您的企业成功地为他人提供价值，该价值必须采取他们愿意支付的形式。幸运的是，无需重新发明轮子——经济价值通常采用十二种标准形式之一：
In order for your business to successfully provide value to another person, that value must take on a form they’re willing to pay for. Fortunately, there’s no need to reinvent the wheel—Economic Value usually takes on one of twelve standard forms:
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产品。创建单个有形物品或实体，然后以高于其制造成本的价格出售和交付它。
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Product. Create a single tangible item or entity, then sell and deliver it for more than what it cost to make.
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服务。提供帮助或帮助，然后对提供的好处收取费用。
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Service. Provide help or assistance, then charge a fee for the benefits rendered.
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共享资源。创建可供多人使用的耐用资产，然后对访问进行收费。
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Shared Resource. Create a durable asset that can be used by many people, then charge for access.
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订阅。持续提供福利并收取经常性费用。
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Subscription. Offer a benefit on an ongoing basis and charge a recurring fee.
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转售。从批发商处获得资产，然后以更高的价格将该资产卖给零售买家。
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Resale. Acquire an asset from a wholesaler, then sell that asset to a retail buyer at a higher price.
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租。获得一项资产，然后允许另一个人在预定的时间内使用该资产以换取费用。
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Lease. Acquire an asset, then allow another person to use that asset for a predefined amount of time in exchange for a fee.
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机构。代表第三方营销和出售您不拥有的资产或服务，然后收取交易价格的一定百分比作为费用。
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Agency. Market and sell an asset or service you don’t own on behalf of a third party, then collect a percentage of the transaction price as a fee.
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观众聚合。吸引具有某些特征的一群人的注意力，然后以广告的形式将接触该群体的机会出售给希望接触该受众的另一家企业。
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Audience Aggregation. Get the attention of a group of people with certain characteristics, then sell access to that group, in the form of advertising, to another business looking to reach that audience.
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贷款。借出一定数量的钱，然后在预定义的时间段内收取等于原始贷款金额加上预定义利率的利息的付款。
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Loan. Lend a certain amount of money, then collect payments over a predefined period of time equal to the amount of the original loan plus interest at a predefined rate.
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选项。提供在固定时间段内执行预定义操作的功能，以换取费用。
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Option. Offer the ability to take a predefined action for a fixed period of time in exchange for a fee.
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保险。承担保单持有人发生某些特定坏事的风险，以换取一系列预定义的付款，然后仅在坏事发生时才支付理赔。
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Insurance. Take on the risk of some specific bad thing happening to the policyholder in exchange for a predefined series of payments, then pay out claims only if the bad thing happens.
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首都。购买一家企业的所有权股份，然后收取相应部分的利润作为一次性支付或持续分红。
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Capital. Purchase an ownership stake in a business, then collect a corresponding portion of the profit as a one-time payout or ongoing dividend.
让我们更详细地研究一下这十二种标准价值形式。
Let’s investigate these Twelve Standard Forms of Value in more detail.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/12-standard-forms-of-value/
价值形式 #1：产品
Form of Value #1: Product
商业不是金融科学。. . 它是关于创造一种如此优秀的产品或服务，以至于人们愿意为之付费。
Business is not financial science . . . it’s about creating a product or service so good that people will pay for it.
—安妮塔·罗迪克 (ANITA RODDICK)，The Body Shop 的企业家和创始人
—ANITA RODDICK, ENTREPRENEUR AND FOUNDER OF THE BODY SHOP
产品是一种有形的价值形式。要经营以产品为导向的业务，您必须：
A Product is a tangible form of value. To run a Product-oriented business, you must:
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创造人们想要的某种有形物品。
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Create some sort of tangible item that people want.
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在保持可接受的质量水平的同时尽可能便宜地生产该项目。
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Produce that item as inexpensively as possible while maintaining an acceptable level of quality.
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以市场能够承受的最高价格出售尽可能多的单位。
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Sell as many units as possible for as high a price as the market will bear.
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保留足够的成品库存，以便在收到订单时完成订单。
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Keep enough inventory of finished product available to fulfill orders as they come in.
您现在拿着的这本书就是产品的一个很好的例子。它必须经过编写、编辑、排版、印刷、装订，并在到达您手中之前足量运送到书店。省略这些步骤中的任何一个，您现在就不会阅读本文。为了赚钱，一本书的售价必须高于创作、印刷和发行的成本。
The book you’re holding right now is a good example of a Product. It had to be written, edited, typeset, printed, bound, and shipped to bookstores in sufficient quantities before reaching your hands. Leave out any of these steps and you wouldn’t be reading this right now. To make money, a book must be sold for more than it cost to create, print, and distribute.
产品可以是耐用的，例如汽车、计算机和真空吸尘器。它们也可以是消费品：苹果、甜甜圈和处方药等商品也是产品。产品不必是实物——甚至尽管软件、电子书和 MP3 之类的东西没有明确的物理形式，但它们是可以出售的实体。
Products can be durable, like cars, computers, and vacuum cleaners. They can also be consumable: goods like apples, donuts, and prescription medications are products as well. Products don’t have to be physical—even though things like software, ebooks, and MP3s don’t have a distinct physical form, they are entities that can be sold.
以 Product 形式提供价值是有价值的，因为 Products can be Duplicated。这本书只写了一次，但可以为世界各地的读者制作和分发数百万次单独的副本。因此，产品往往比其他形式的价值更好地扩展，因为它们可以被复制和/或相乘（所有这些概念将在后面讨论）。
Providing value in Product form is valuable because Products can be Duplicated. This book was written only once, but individual copies can be created and delivered millions of times to readers around the world. As a result, products tend to Scale better than other forms of value, since they can be Duplicated and/or Multiplied (all of these concepts are discussed later).
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/product/
价值形式#2：服务
Form of Value #2: Service
每个人都可以伟大，因为每个人都可以服务。
Everyone can be great because everyone can serve.
——马丁·路德·金，人权活动家
—MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR., HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST
服务涉及帮助或协助某人以换取费用。要通过服务创造价值，您必须能够为用户提供某种类型的利益。
A Service involves helping or assisting someone in exchange for a fee. To create value via Services, you must be able to provide some type of benefit to the user.
为了创建成功的服务，您的企业必须：
In order to create a successful Service, your business must:
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让员工具备其他人需要但不能、不会或不想使用自己的技能或能力。
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Have employees capable of a skill or ability other people require but can’t, won’t, or don’t want to use themselves.
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确保以高质量提供服务。
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Ensure that the Service is provided at high quality.
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吸引并留住付费客户。
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Attract and retain paying customers.
服务业务的一个很好的例子是理发店。理发不是产品：您不能从货架上购买。该服务是造型师用来将您当前的发型转变为您想要的发型的一系列操作。从这个意义上说，医生、自由设计师、按摩治疗师、草坪护理提供者和顾问都是服务提供者。
A good example of a Service business is a barbershop. A haircut is not a Product: you can’t purchase one from a shelf. The Service is the series of actions the stylist uses to transform your current hairstyle into the one you want. In this sense, doctors, freelance designers, massage therapists, lawn-care providers, and consultants are all Service providers.
服务可能是有利可图的，特别是如果提供它们所需的技能很少且难以开发，但代价是它们很难复制。服务取决于服务提供者投入的时间和精力，两者都是有限的；心脏外科医生在任何一天只能完成这么多的四小时手术。
Services can be lucrative, particularly if the skills required to provide them are rare and difficult to develop, but the trade-off is that they’re difficult to duplicate. Services depend on the Service provider’s investment of time and energy, both of which are finite; a heart surgeon can only complete so many four-hour operations on any given day.
如果您正在开发一项服务，请务必收取足够的费用以补偿您每天为向客户提供服务所投入的时间。否则，你会发现你工作太辛苦而回报太少。
If you’re developing a Service, be sure to charge enough to compensate for the time you’ll be investing on a daily basis in providing the Service to your customers. Otherwise, you’ll discover that you’re working too hard for too little reward.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/service/
价值形式#3：共享资源
Form of Value #3: Shared Resource
不分享的快乐，我听说，英年早逝。
The joy that isn’t shared, I’ve heard, dies young.
——安妮·塞克斯顿，普利策奖获奖诗人，“欢迎早晨”
—ANNE SEXTON, PULITZER PRIZE–WINNING POET, “WELCOME MORNING”
共享资源是一种可以被许多人使用的持久资产。共享资源允许您创建一次资产，然后向您的客户收取使用费。
A Shared Resource is a durable asset that can be used by many people. Shared Resources allow you to create the asset once, then charge your customers for its use.
为了创建成功的共享资源，您必须：
In order to create a successful Shared Resource, you must:
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创建人们想要访问的资产。
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Create an asset people want to have access to.
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在不影响每个用户体验质量的情况下，为尽可能多的用户提供服务。
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Serve as many users as you can without affecting the quality of each user’s experience.
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收取足够的费用以随着时间的推移维护和改进共享资源。
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Charge enough to maintain and improve the Shared Resource over time.
健身房和健身俱乐部是共享资源的典型示例。一家健身俱乐部可能会购买四十台跑步机、三十台健身车、六套自由重量器械、一套壶铃和其他有用但价格昂贵且经久耐用的设备。俱乐部的成员受益于无需自己购买就可以使用这些设备——相反，他们需要支付使用费，这对个人来说更容易负担得起。（大多数健身房将对其共享资源的访问与服务和订阅结合在一起，这是捆绑的常见示例，我们将在后面讨论。）
Gyms and fitness clubs are a classic example of a Shared Resource. A fitness club may purchase forty treadmills, thirty exercise bikes, six sets of free weights, a set of kettlebells, and other useful but expensive equipment that lasts a long time. The club’s members benefit by being able to access this equipment without having to purchase it themselves—instead, they pay an access fee, which is much easier for an individual to afford. (Most gyms combine access to their Shared Resource with Services and Subscriptions, a common example of Bundling, which we’ll discuss later.)
电影院和游乐园等企业的运作方式大致相同。无论是观看最新的大制作电影还是乘坐过山车，共享资源都可以让许多人充分利用原本成本过高的体验。
Businesses like movie theaters and amusement parks work in much the same way. Whether it means watching the latest big-budget film or riding a roller coaster, Shared Resources allow many people to take advantage of experiences that would otherwise be too expensive.
提供共享资源的棘手部分是谨慎监控使用水平。如果您没有足够的用户，您将无法分摊足够的资产成本来支付前期成本和持续维护。如果您有太多用户，过度拥挤会大大降低体验，以至于他们会变得沮丧，停止使用该资源，并建议其他人不要光顾您的业务，从而降低您的声誉。在太少和太多成员之间找到最佳平衡点是使共享资源发挥作用的关键。
The tricky part about offering a Shared Resource is carefully monitoring usage levels. If you don’t have enough users, you won’t be able to spread out the cost of the asset enough to cover up-front costs and ongoing maintenance. If you have too many users, overcrowding will diminish the experience so much that they’ll become frustrated, stop using the resource, and advise others not to patronize your business, diminishing your Reputation. Finding the sweet spot between too few members and too many is the key to making a Shared Resource work.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/shared-resource/
价值形式#4：订阅
Form of Value #4: Subscription
请接受我的辞职。我不想属于任何会接受我成为会员的俱乐部。
Please accept my resignation. I don’t want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member.
——格劳乔·马克思，喜剧演员
—GROUCHO MARX, COMEDIAN
订阅计划持续提供预定义的好处，以换取经常性费用。提供的实际利益可以是有形的或无形的——与其他价值形式的主要区别在于 (a) 对未来提供额外价值的预期，以及 (b) 理解在取消订阅之前将收取费用。
A Subscription program provides predefined benefits on an ongoing basis in exchange for a recurring fee. The actual benefits provided can be tangible or intangible—the key differences from other forms of value are (a) the expectation of additional value to be provided in the future and (b) the understanding that fees will be collected until the Subscription is canceled.
为了创建成功的订阅，您必须：
In order to create a successful Subscription, you must:
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定期为每个订户提供重要价值。
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Provide significant value to each subscriber on a regular basis.
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建立订户基础并不断吸引新订户以弥补流失。
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Build a subscriber base and continually attract new subscribers to compensate for attrition.
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定期向客户收费。
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Bill customers on a recurring basis.
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尽可能长时间地留住每个订阅者。
-
Retain each subscriber as long as possible.
有线或卫星电视服务是订阅的一个很好的例子。您注册后，只要您付款，公司将继续提供电视服务。您不必每个月都打电话给公司再购买 30 天的服务——只要支付了发票，服务就会继续。
Cable or satellite television service is a great example of a Subscription. After you sign up, the company will continue to provide television service as long as you make the payments. You don’t have to call up the company every month to buy another thirty days’ worth—the service continues as long as the invoice is paid.
订阅是一种有吸引力的价值形式，因为它提供了更可预测的收入。而不是必须转售给您现有的客户每天，订阅可以让您随着时间的推移建立稳定的忠实客户群。该模型确保每个计费周期都有一定水平的收入。
Subscription is an attractive form of value because it provides more predictable revenue. Instead of having to resell to your existing customers every day, Subscriptions allow you to build a steady base of loyal customers over time. This model ensures a certain level of revenue coming in each billing period.
订阅优惠的关键是尽一切可能降低客户流失率。只要你继续让你的客户满意，你的客户群中只有一小部分会取消每个周期，让你能够更确定地规划你的财务。您可以通过注册更多客户来克服您遇到的任何订户流失问题。
The key to Subscription offers is doing everything you can to keep customer attrition as low as possible. As long as you continue to make your customers happy, only a small percentage of your customer base will cancel each period, giving you the ability to plan your finances with more certainty. Any subscriber attrition you experience can be overcome by enrolling more customers.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/subscription/
价值形式#5：转售
Form of Value #5: Resale
低买高卖。
Buy low, sell high.
—股票交易者的格言
—STOCK TRADER’S MAXIM
转售是指从批发卖家处收购资产，然后以更高的价格将该资产出售给零售买家。转售是您熟悉的大多数零售商的工作方式：他们从其他企业购买他们销售的商品，然后以高于成本的价格转售每笔购买的商品。
Resale is the acquisition of an asset from a wholesale seller followed by the sale of that asset to a retail buyer at a higher price. Resale is how most of the retailers you’re familiar with work: they purchase what they sell from other businesses, then resell each purchase for more than it cost.
为了提供经销商的价值，您必须：
In order to provide value as a reseller, you must:
-
尽可能便宜地购买产品，通常是批量购买。
-
Purchase a product as inexpensively as possible, usually in bulk.
-
在销售前保持产品完好——损坏的商品不能出售。
-
Keep the product in good condition until sale—damaged goods can’t be sold.
-
尽快找到产品的潜在购买者，以保持较低的库存成本。
-
Find potential purchasers of the product as soon as possible to keep inventory costs low.
-
以尽可能高的价格出售产品，最好是购买价格的倍数。
-
Sell the product for as high a markup as possible, preferably a multiple of the purchase price.
经销商很有价值，因为他们可以帮助批发商销售产品，而无需寻找个人购买者。对于农民来说，将苹果卖给数百万个人既费时又低效：将它们全部卖给杂货连锁店并专注于种植更多苹果要好得多。然后杂货连锁店将苹果入库并以更高的价格出售给个人消费者。
Resellers are valuable because they help wholesalers sell products without having to find individual purchasers. For a farmer, selling apples to millions of individuals would be time-intensive and inefficient: it’s far better to sell them all to a grocery chain and focus on growing more apples. The grocery chain then takes the apples into inventory and sells them to individual consumers at a higher price.
沃尔玛和乐购等大众市场零售商、CVS 和 Walgreens 等专卖店零售商以及 Lands' End 等目录业务的运作方式相同：从制造商处以低价购买产品，然后尽快以更高的价格出售。
Mass-market retailers like Walmart and Tesco, specialty retailers like CVS and Walgreens, and catalog operations like Lands’ End work the same way: purchase products at low prices from manufacturers, then sell them for a higher price as soon as possible.
以低价采购优质产品和管理库存水平是转售的关键。如果没有以足够低的价格获得稳定的可销售产品供应以盈利，经销商将很难获得足够的收入来继续经营。大多数成功的经销商与供应他们库存的企业建立了密切的关系，以确保他们继续以低价获得可靠的优质资产供应。
Sourcing good products at low prices and managing inventory levels are the keys to reselling. Without a steady supply of sellable product obtained at a low enough price to turn a profit, a reseller will have a hard time bringing in enough revenue to keep going. Most successful resellers establish close relationships with the businesses that supply their inventory to ensure they continue to get a reliable supply of good assets at low prices.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/resale/
价值形式#6：租赁
Form of Value #6: Lease
根据我所能形成的最好的理论，人类由两个截然不同的种族组成：借贷的人和借贷的人。
The human species, according to the best theory I can form of it, is composed of two distinct races: the men who borrow and the men who lend.
——查尔斯·兰姆，散文家
—CHARLES LAMB, ESSAYIST
租赁涉及获取一项资产，然后允许另一个人在预定的时间内使用该资产以换取费用。资产几乎可以是任何东西：汽车、船、房子、自行车或电动工具。只要资产足够耐用，可以出租给另一个人并可以归还以供重复使用，您就可以租赁它。
A Lease involves acquiring an asset, then allowing another person to use that asset for a predefined amount of time in exchange for a fee. The asset can be pretty much anything: a car, boat, house, bike, or power tool. As long as an asset is durable enough to survive rental to another person and be returned ready for reuse, you can Lease it.
为了通过租约提供价值，您必须：
In order to provide value via a Lease, you must:
-
获得人们想要使用的资产。
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Acquire an asset people want to use.
-
以优惠条件将资产出租给付费客户。
-
Lease the asset to a paying customer on favorable terms.
-
保护自己免受意外或不利事件的影响，包括租赁资产的损失或损坏。
-
Protect yourself from unexpected or adverse events, including the loss or damage of the leased asset.
租赁允许以低于直接购买价格的价格使用资产，从而使客户受益。你可能负担不起花费数十几千块钱买一辆豪车或者快艇，但是一个月几百块钱，就可以租一个。同样的原则也适用于住房：租赁使人们有可能以比自己购买或建造的成本低得多的价格住在昂贵的建筑物中。租约到期后，业主可以将住房单元出租给其他人。
Leasing benefits the customer by allowing the use of an asset for less than the outright purchase price. You may not be able to afford to spend tens of thousands of dollars to purchase a luxury car or a speedboat, but for a few hundred dollars a month, you can Lease one. The same principle applies to housing: leasing makes it possible to live in an expensive building for much less than it would cost to purchase or build it yourself. After your lease is up, the housing unit can be leased by the owner to someone else.
要通过租赁成功提供价值，您必须确保租赁收入能够在资产磨损或丢失之前支付资产的购买价格。大多数资产的使用寿命有限，因此您必须在资产失去价值之前收取足够的费用以带来比购买价格更多的收入。此外，请务必计划维修和更换费用，以确保您收取足够的费用，以在您的资产在使用中丢失或损坏时支付您的费用。
To successfully provide value via a Lease, you must ensure that the revenue from the Lease covers the purchase price of the asset before it wears out or is lost. Most assets have a limited useful life, so you must charge enough to bring in more revenue than the purchase price before the asset loses its value. In addition, be sure to plan for repair and replacement costs to ensure you’re charging enough money to cover you in the event your asset is lost or damaged in use.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/lease/
价值形式#7：代理
Form of Value #7: Agency
我希望被火化。按照合同约定，我的十分之一骨灰将交给我的代理人。
I wish to be cremated. One tenth of my ashes shall be given to my agent, as written in our contract.
——格劳乔·马克思，喜剧演员
—GROUCHO MARX, COMEDIAN
代理涉及营销和销售您不拥有的资产。您不是自己创造价值，而是与其他有价值的人合作，然后努力寻找购买者。作为在您的来源和买家之间建立新关系的交换，您可以获得佣金或费用。
Agency involves the marketing and sale of an asset you don’t own. Instead of producing value by yourself, you team up with someone else who has value to offer, then work to find a purchaser. In exchange for establishing a new relationship between your source and a buyer, you earn a commission or fee.
为了通过代理提供价值，您必须：
In order to provide value via Agency, you must:
-
寻找拥有宝贵资产的卖家。
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Find a seller who has a valuable asset.
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与该资产的潜在买家建立联系和信任。
-
Establish contact and trust with potential buyers of that asset.
-
谈判直到就销售条款达成协议。
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Negotiate until an agreement is reached on the terms of sale.
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向卖家收取约定的费用或佣金。
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Collect the agreed-upon fee or commission from the seller.
卖家从代理关系中受益，因为它产生了否则可能不会发生的销售。文学代理人是一个典型的例子：一个潜在的作者可能对一本书有想法，但可能不认识任何人出版。通过与在出版业已有关系的代理人合作，作者更有可能获得出版合同。作为寻找出版商和谈判交易的交换，代理人获得一定比例的图书预付款和版税。
Sellers benefit from an Agency relationship because it generates sales that might not otherwise happen. Literary agents are a classic example: a potential author may have an idea for a book but may not know anyone in publishing. By working with an agent who has preexisting connections in the publishing industry, the author is far more likely to land a publishing contract. In exchange for finding a publisher and negotiating the deal, the agent gets a percentage of the book’s advance and royalties.
买家还可以从代理关系中受益——好的代理可以帮助他们找到要购买的优质资产。代理商通常充当买家的过滤器，他们相信代理商会引起他们对值得购买的资产的注意，并使他们远离不良交易。住宅房地产就是一个很好的例子：与熟悉该地区且经验丰富的买方代理合作通常会使在新城镇购买房屋变得更加容易。
Buyers also benefit from an Agency relationship—good agents can help them find great assets to purchase. Agents often act as a filter for buyers, who trust that the agent will bring to their attention assets worth purchasing and keep them away from bad deals. Residential real estate is a great example: working with an experienced buyer’s agent who knows the area often makes purchasing a home in a new town much easier.
代理的关键是确保您的费用或佣金足够高，使您的努力物有所值。由于大多数代理关系都依赖于完成销售，您必须将时间花在将导致完成交易的活动上，并且您必须确保该交易的佣金或费用补偿您为完成交易所花费的时间和精力交易。
The key to Agency is to ensure that your fee or commission is high enough to make the effort worth it. Since most Agency relationships are dependent upon closing a sale, you must spend your time on activities that will result in a completed transaction, and you must ensure that the commission or fee from that transaction compensates you for the time and effort you put into closing the deal.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/agency/
价值形式#8：受众聚合
Form of Value #8: Audience Aggregation
只要您的脑海中还存有叮当声，电视就不是免费的。
So long as there’s a jingle in your head, television isn’t free.
—JASON LOVE，营销主管
—JASON LOVE, MARKETING EXECUTIVE
受众聚合围绕着收集具有相似特征的一群人的注意力，然后将访问该受众的权限出售给第三方。由于注意力是有限且有价值的，因此聚集特定人群中的一群人对于有兴趣吸引这些人的注意力的企业或团体来说非常有价值。
Audience Aggregation revolves around collecting the attention of a group of people with similar characteristics, then selling access to that audience to a third party. Since attention is limited and valuable, gathering a group of people in a certain demographic is quite valuable to businesses or groups that are interested in getting the attention of those people.
为了通过受众聚合提供价值，您必须：
In order to provide value via Audience Aggregation, you must:
-
确定具有共同特征或兴趣的一群人。
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Identify a group of people with common characteristics or interests.
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创造并保持某种方式来吸引该群体的注意力。
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Create and maintain some way of attracting that group’s attention.
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寻找有兴趣购买该受众注意力的第三方。
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Find third parties who are interested in buying the attention of that audience.
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在不疏远受众本身的情况下向该受众出售访问权限。
-
Sell access to that audience without alienating the audience itself.
观众聚合对观众有益，因为它提供了值得他们关注的东西。杂志和广告支持的网站就是很好的例子：读者从这些来源提供的信息和娱乐中获益，以换取接触到一定程度的广告。如果广告变得令人讨厌，他们就会离开，但如果内容不错，大多数人都愿意接触一定数量的广告。
Audience Aggregation benefits the audience because it provides something worthy of their attention. Magazines and advertising-supported websites are great examples: readers benefit from the information and entertainment these sources provide in exchange for being exposed to some level of advertising. If the advertising becomes obnoxious, they’ll leave, but most people are willing to be exposed to a certain amount of advertising if the content is good.
受众聚合对广告商有利，因为它获得了关注，从而带来了销售。想一想会议或贸易展：在满是对您所提供的产品感兴趣的人的建筑物中心购买一个展位可能是一个明智的决定。做得好，广告吸引注意力，注意力带来前景，前景带来销售。只要销售额带来的收入超过广告成本加上企业的间接费用，广告就可以成为吸引新客户的宝贵工具，这意味着广告商可以通过购买更多广告来继续支持聚合商。
Audience Aggregation benefits the advertiser because it gets attention, which leads to sales. Think of a conference or trade show: buying a booth in the center of a building full of people interested in what you have to offer can be a smart decision. Done well, advertising attracts attention, attention brings prospects, and prospects lead to sales. As long as the sales bring in more money than the cost of the advertising plus the business’s Overhead, the advertising can be a valuable tool to bring in new customers, which means the advertiser can continue to support the aggregator by purchasing more advertising.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/audience-aggregation/
价值形式 #9：贷款
Form of Value #9: Loan
金钱万能——但信用也有回声。
Money talks—but credit has an echo.
—BOB THAVES，漫画家和《弗兰克与欧内斯特》的创作者
—BOB THAVES, CARTOONIST AND CREATOR OF FRANK AND ERNEST
贷款涉及让借款人在一定时期内使用一定数量资源的协议。作为交换，借款人必须在预定义的时间段内向贷方支付一系列付款，这等于原始贷款的金额加上预定义利率的利息。
A Loan involves an agreement to let the borrower use a certain amount of resources for a certain period of time. In exchange, the borrower must pay the lender a series of payments over a predefined period of time, which is equal to the amount of the original loan plus interest at a predefined rate.
为了通过贷款提供价值，您必须：
In order to provide value via Loans, you must:
-
有一些钱可以借。
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Have some amount of money to lend.
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找到想借这笔钱的人。
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Find people who want to borrow that money.
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设定一个足以补偿您贷款的利率。
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Set an interest rate that compensates you adequately for the Loan.
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估计贷款无法偿还的可能性，避免可预防的损失。
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Estimate the probability that the Loan won’t be repaid, and avoid preventable losses.
负责任地使用贷款，让人们能够立即获得产品或服务，否则这些产品或服务会因过于昂贵而无法直接购买。抵押贷款允许人们在没有数十万美元银行存款的情况下住在房子里。汽车贷款允许人们驾驶新车以换取每月付款而不是 100% 的首付款。信用卡允许人们立即购买产品和服务，然后在几个月内付款。
Used responsibly, Loans allow people to benefit from immediate access to products or services that would otherwise be too expensive to purchase outright. Mortgages allow people to live in houses without having hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bank. Auto loans allow people to drive new vehicles in exchange for a monthly payment instead of a 100 percent down payment. Credit cards allow people to purchase products and services immediately, then pay for them over the course of several months.
贷款对贷方有利，因为它们提供了一种从过剩资本中获益的方式。在原始贷款（“本金”）之上增加复利意味着贷方将收取比原始贷款价值多得多的钱——对于抵押贷款等长期贷款，通常是原始贷款的两到三倍.
Loans are beneficial to the lender because they provide a way to benefit from excess capital. The addition of compound interest on top of the original loan (the “principal”) means that the lender will collect much more than the value of the original loan—in the case of long-term Loans like mortgages, often two to three times more.
贷款发放后，除了收取还款外，贷方几乎不需要做任何额外工作——除非借款人停止还款。识别特定贷款的风险程度的过程（称为承销的过程）是贷方的一项基本技能，他们通常需要某种资产作为抵押品以防止贷款变坏的风险。如果贷款未偿还，抵押品的所有权将转移给贷方，然后出售以弥补交易中损失的任何资金。
After the Loan is made, little additional work is required on the part of the lender aside from collecting payments—unless the borrower stops making payments. The process of identifying how risky a particular Loan is—a process called underwriting—is an essential skill for lenders, who often require some sort of asset as collateral to protect against the risks of a Loan gone sour. If the Loan is not repaid, ownership of the collateral is transferred to the lender, then sold to recoup any funds lost in the transaction.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/loan/
价值形式 #10：期权
Form of Value #10: Option
你付钱，然后做出选择。
You pays your money and you makes your choice.
— Punch，十九世纪英国漫画杂志，1846 年
—PUNCH, NINETEENTH-CENTURY BRITISH COMIC MAGAZINE, 1846
期权是在固定时间段内采取预定义操作以换取费用的能力。大多数人将期权视为金融证券，但它们无处不在：电影或音乐会门票、优惠券、保留金和许可权都是期权的例子。作为费用的交换，购买者有权在截止日期前采取一些特定行动——参加展会、购买资产、生产许可产品或以特定价格购买金融证券。
An Option is the ability to take a predefined action for a fixed period of time in exchange for a fee. Most people think of Options as financial securities, but they’re all around us: movie or concert tickets, coupons, retainers, and licensing rights are all examples of Options. In exchange for a fee, the purchaser has the right to take some specific action—attend the show, purchase an asset, produce a licensed Product, or buy a financial security at a particular price—before the deadline.
为了通过期权提供价值，您必须：
In order to provide value via Options, you must:
-
确定人们将来可能希望采取的一些行动。
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Identify some action people might want to take in the future.
-
为潜在买家提供在指定截止日期前采取该行动的权利。
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Offer potential buyers the right to take that action before a specified deadline.
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让潜在买家相信该期权值得要价。
-
Convince potential buyers that the Option is worth the asking price.
-
执行指定的行动截止日期。
-
Enforce the specified deadline on taking action.
期权很有价值，因为它们允许购买者采取特定行动的能力，而无需他们采取该行动。例如，如果你购买了一张电影票，你就可以在电影院里占据一个座位，但如果有更好的机会出现，你就不必这样做了。当您购买门票时，您所购买的只是在指定时间行使观看电影的选择权——仅此而已。
Options are valuable because they allow the purchaser the ability to take a specific action without requiring them to take that action. For example, if you purchase a movie ticket, you have the ability to occupy a seat in the theater, but you don’t have to if a better opportunity presents itself. When you purchase the ticket, all you’re purchasing is the right to exercise the Option to see the movie at the time specified—nothing more.
期权通常用于在另一笔交易发生之前将特定的行动方案保持一段时间。例如，在从纽约搬到科罗拉多州的过程中，我和我的妻子凯尔西 (Kelsey) 为我们从未见过的公寓存了一笔押金。押金确保房东不会在我们搬家之前将公寓出租给其他人。一旦我们签署了正式的租赁协议，押金就变成了标准的租赁保证金。如果我们决定不继续前进，房东会保留押金作为为我们保留公寓的补偿，并且可以自由寻找其他租户。因此，该选择权对双方均有利。
Options are often used to keep specific courses of action open for a certain period of time before another transaction takes place. For example, in moving to Colorado from New York, my wife, Kelsey, and I put a deposit down on an apartment we hadn’t seen in person. The deposit ensured that the landlord wouldn’t rent the apartment to someone else before we moved. Once we signed the official rental agreement, the deposit became a standard rental security deposit. If we had decided not to move forward, the landlord would have kept the deposit in compensation for holding the apartment for us and would have been free to find another tenant. Thus, the Option was beneficial for both parties.
期权通常是一种被忽视的价值形式——灵活性是三大通用货币之一。想办法给人们更多的灵活性，你可能会发现一个可行的商业模式。
Options are often an overlooked form of value—flexibility is one of the Three Universal Currencies. Find a way to give people more flexibility and you may discover a viable business model.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/option/
价值形式#11：保险
Form of Value #11: Insurance
承担经过计算的风险。这与鲁莽是完全不同的。
Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.
——乔治·巴顿将军，二战期间美国第三集团军司令
—GENERAL GEORGE S. PATTON, COMMANDER OF THE US THIRD ARMY IN WORLD WAR II
保险涉及将风险从买方转移到卖方。作为承担保单持有人发生某些特定坏事的风险的交换，保单持有人同意向保险公司提供一系列预定义的付款。如果发生坏事，保险公司有责任买单。如果没有，保险公司将保留这笔钱。
Insurance involves the transfer of risk from the purchaser to the seller. In exchange for taking on the risk of some specific bad thing happening to the policyholder, the policyholder agrees to give the insurer a predefined series of payments. If the bad thing happens, the insurer is responsible for footing the bill. If it doesn’t, the insurer gets to keep the money.
为了通过保险提供价值，您必须：
In order to provide value via Insurance, you must:
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制定具有约束力的法律协议，将发生特定坏事（“损失”）的风险从保单持有人转移给您。
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Create a binding legal agreement that transfers the risk of a specific bad thing (a “loss”) happening from the policyholder to you.
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使用可用数据估计坏事发生的风险。
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Estimate the risk of that bad thing happening, using available data.
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随着时间的推移收集商定的一系列付款（称为保费）。
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Collect the agreed-upon series of payments (called premiums) over time.
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支付保单的合法索赔。
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Pay out legitimate claims on the policy.
保险通过保护他们免受下行风险来为购买者提供价值。例如，一栋房子可能会以多种方式着火，如果他们的房子被烧毁，大多数房主没有足够的现金购买另一栋房子。房主保险将这种风险转移给保险公司。如果房屋被火烧毁，保险公司将赔偿房主并允许他们购买新房。如果不是，保险公司将保留保费。
Insurance provides value to the purchaser by protecting them from downside risk. For example, a house can catch fire in any number of ways, and most homeowners don’t have enough cash to purchase another if their home burns to the ground. Homeowners’ insurance transfers this risk to the insurer. If the home is destroyed by fire, the Insurance will compensate the homeowner and allow them to purchase a new home. If it isn’t, the insurer gets to keep the premium payments.
保险之所以有效，是因为它将风险分散到很多人身上。如果一家保险公司为数以千计或数以百万计的家庭制定保单，那么每一个家庭都不太可能立即被烧毁；只需支付一定数量的索赔。只要保险公司带来的保费支付多于理赔支付的费用，保险公司就能赚钱。汽车保险、健康保险和消费品保修范围的运作方式相同。
Insurance works because it spreads risk over a large number of individuals. If an insurer writes policies for thousands or millions of homes, it’s highly unlikely that every single one will burn to the ground at once; only a certain number of claims will ever have to be paid. As long as the insurer brings in more in premium payments than it pays in claims, the insurer makes money. Car insurance, health insurance, and warranty coverage for consumer goods work the same way.
保险公司收取的保费越多，保险公司支付的索赔越少，它赚的钱就越多。保险公司有避免的既得利益“不良风险”，最大化保费，最小化索赔支付。保险公司必须保持警惕，避免欺诈活动，既要防止欺诈性索赔，又要避免通过收取保费而不支付合法索赔来欺骗购买者。如果保险公司未能支付合法索赔，他们很可能会在法庭上发现自己，因为保单持有人使用法律制度来维护他们的保险合同。
The more premiums an insurer collects and the fewer claims the insurer pays, the more money it makes. Insurers have a vested interest in avoiding “bad risks,” maximizing premiums, and minimizing payments on claims. Insurers must be vigilant to avoid fraudulent activity, both preventing fraudulent claims and refraining from defrauding purchasers by collecting premium payments without paying legitimate claims. If an insurer fails to pay legitimate claims, they’re likely to find themselves in court as policyholders use the legal system to uphold their Insurance contract.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/insurance/
价值形式#12：资本
Form of Value #12: Capital
资本是财富中用于获得更多财富的部分。
Capital is that part of wealth which is devoted to obtaining further wealth.
—阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔，经济学家和《经济学原理》的作者
—ALFRED MARSHALL, ECONOMIST AND AUTHOR OF PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS
资本是购买企业的所有权股份。对于有资源可分配的各方，提供资本是帮助新企业或现有企业所有者扩展或进入新市场的一种方式。天使投资、风险投资和购买上市公司的股票都是通过资本提供价值的例子，我们将在稍后的资金层次结构中详细讨论。
Capital is the purchase of an ownership stake in a business. For parties that have resources to allocate, providing Capital is a way to help owners of new or existing businesses expand or enter new markets. Angel investing, venture capital, and purchasing stock in publicly traded companies are all examples of providing value via Capital, which we’ll discuss in detail later, in the Hierarchy of Funding.
为了通过 Capital 提供价值，您必须：
In order to provide value via Capital, you must:
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拥有可供投资的资源池。
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Have a pool of resources available to invest.
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找一个你愿意投资的有前途的企业。
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Find a promising business in which you’d be willing to invest.
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估计该企业目前的价值，未来可能的价值，以及企业倒闭的可能性，这将导致您的资本损失。
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Estimate how much that business is currently worth, how much it may be worth in the future, and the probability that the business will go under, which would result in the loss of your Capital.
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协商您将获得的所有权数量，以换取您投资的资本数量。
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Negotiate the amount of ownership you’d receive in exchange for the amount of Capital you’re investing.
企业受益于资本投资，因为它使他们能够收集扩展或进入新行业所需的资源。一些行业，如制造业和金融服务业，需要大量资金启动或扩展的资金。通过吸引投资者，企业主可以获得足够的资金来向前发展。
Businesses benefit from Capital investment because it enables them to gather the resources necessary to expand or enter new industries. Some industries, like manufacturing and financial services, require huge amounts of funding to start or expand. By taking on investors, business owners can secure enough funding to move forward.
投资者通过获得该公司一定比例的所有权而受益，这使他们无需积极参与即可从企业活动中获益。投资者无需将资金留在银行账户，而是可以将其分配给从事有前途的风险投资的公司，这可能会提供更高的回报率。如果企业带来大量现金，投资者可能会从定期股息中受益。如果它被另一家公司收购或在公共证券交易所上市，投资者可能会收到购买价格的一定百分比作为一次性付款或在公开市场上出售他们的公司股份以获利。
Investors benefit by acquiring a certain percentage of that company’s ownership, which allows them to benefit from the business’s activities without active involvement. Instead of leaving their money in a bank account, investors can allocate it to companies that are involved in promising ventures, which may provide a higher rate of return. If the business brings in a lot of cash, investors may benefit from a regular dividend. If it’s acquired by another company or is listed on a public stock exchange, investors may receive a percentage of the purchase price as a lump-sum payment or sell their shares of the company on the open market for a profit.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/capital/
无忧保费
Hassle Premium
所有人类情况都有其不便之处。
All human situations have their inconveniences.
—本杰明·富兰克林，18 世纪美国政治领袖、科学家和博学者
—BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY AMERICAN POLITICAL LEADER, SCIENTIST, AND POLYMATH
人们几乎总是愿意为需要处理的事情买单，因为他们认为这些事情太痛苦而无法照顾自己。哪里有麻烦，哪里就有商机。
People are almost always willing to pay for things to be dealt with that they believe are too much of a pain to take care of themselves. Where there’s a hassle, there’s a business opportunity.
麻烦有多种形式。相关项目或任务可能：
Hassles come in many forms. The project or task in question may:
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花太多时间来完成。
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Take too much time to complete.
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需要太多的努力才能保证好的结果。
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Require too much effort to ensure a good result.
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分散其他更重要的优先事项的注意力。
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Distract from other, more important priorities.
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涉及太多的混乱、不确定性或复杂性。
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Involve too much confusion, uncertainty, or complexity.
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需要昂贵或令人生畏的先前经验。
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Require costly or intimidating prior experience.
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需要难以获得的专门资源或设备。
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Require specialized resources or equipment that’s difficult to obtain.
项目或任务涉及的麻烦越多，人们就越愿意为简单的解决方案或让某人完成他们的工作而付出代价代表。举个例子：房主可能愿意为泳池清洁套件支付 50 美元的一次性费用，但他们可能愿意每月支付 100 美元的清洁服务费用，让某人为他们清洁泳池。
The more hassle a project or task involves, the more people are willing to pay for an easy solution or for someone to complete the job on their behalf. Here’s an example: a homeowner may be willing to pay a one-time fee of $50 for a pool cleaning kit, but they may be willing to pay a cleaning service $100 per month to have someone clean their pool for them.
无论哪种方式，最终结果都是一个干净的游泳池，但清洁服务消除了麻烦：游泳池所有者无需花费任何时间或精力来获得相同的预期结果。因此，泳池清洁服务从Hassle Premium中受益：它每年可以收取 1,200 美元——比 DIY 选项多 1,150 美元——消除了泳池所有者的麻烦。
The end result is a clean pool either way, but the cleaning service removes the hassle: the pool owner doesn’t have to spend any time or effort to get the same desired result. As a result, the pool cleaning service benefits from the Hassle Premium: it’s able to collect $1,200 per year—$1,150 more than the DIY option—by eliminating the hassle for the pool owner.
但是，有一个限制。每月为泳池清洁服务收取 10,000 美元的费用是行不通的——绝大多数房主不太关心是否有一个干净的泳池。要从 Hassle Premium 中获益，您需要了解该任务对潜在客户来说有多麻烦。麻烦越大，潜在的麻烦溢价就越高。
There is a limit, however. Charging $10,000 a month for a pool cleaning service won’t work—the vast majority of homeowners don’t care about having a clean pool that much. To benefit from the Hassle Premium, you need to understand how much of a hassle the task is to the prospect. The greater the hassle, the higher the potential Hassle Premium.
如果您正在寻找新的经营理念，请开始寻找麻烦。哪里有麻烦，哪里就有机会。您为客户消除的麻烦越多，您获得的收入就越多。
If you’re looking for a new business idea, start looking for hassles. Where there’s hassle, there’s opportunity. The more hassle you eliminate for your customers, the more you’ll collect in revenue.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/hassle-premium/
感知价值
Perceived Value
当人们对金钱的重视程度高于对事物的重视程度时，他们不会用金钱来换东西。
People don’t trade money for things when they value their money more highly than they value the things.
—ROY H. WILLIAMS，广告奇才
—ROY H. WILLIAMS, THE WIZARD OF ADS
并非所有形式的价值都是平等的。价值在旁观者的眼中。
All forms of value are not created equal. Value is in the eye of the beholder.
感知价值决定了您的客户愿意为您提供的产品支付多少费用。潜在客户认为您的报价越有价值，他们购买它的可能性就越大，他们愿意支付的费用也就越多。
Perceived Value determines how much your customers will be willing to pay for what you’re offering. The more valuable a prospect believes your offer is, the more likely they’ll be to buy it and the more they’ll be willing to pay.
最有价值的报价执行以下一项或多项操作：
The most valuable offers do one or more of the following:
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满足潜在客户的一项或多项核心人类驱动力。
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Satisfy one or more of the prospect’s Core Human Drives.
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提供有吸引力且易于可视化的最终结果。
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Offer an attractive and easy-to-visualize End Result.
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通过尽可能减少最终用户的参与来获得最高的Hassle Premium 。
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Command the highest Hassle Premium by reducing end-user involvement as much as possible.
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通过提供有助于他们在其他人眼中看起来不错的地位信号来满足潜在客户对社会地位的渴望。
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Satisfy the prospect’s desire for Social Status by providing Status Signals that help them look good in the eyes of other people.
重要的是要注意，感知价值是一个主观问题，取决于您的潜在客户的当前状况、价值观、信仰和世界观。如果您的潜在客户不相信您的报价有价值，他们将不会接受您的报价。
It’s important to note that Perceived Value is a subjective matter and depends on your prospect’s current situation, values, beliefs, and world view. If your prospects don’t believe your offer is valuable, they won’t be Receptive to your offer.
专注于以需要最少的最终用户努力和挫败感的方式提供最显着的好处和最高的地位，您将增加您的产品的感知价值。
Focus on providing the most significant benefits and the highest status in a way that requires the least amount of end-user effort and frustration and you’ll increase the Perceived Value of your offer.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/perceived-value/
模块化
Modularity
伟大的事情不是凭一时冲动做成的，而是一系列小事汇集而成的。
Great things are not done by impulse, but by a series of small things brought together.
——文森特·梵高，艺术家
—VINCENT VAN GOGH, ARTIST
请记住，十二种标准价值形式并不相互排斥：您可以向潜在客户提供这些形式的任意数量或组合，以了解他们最喜欢哪些。这种策略称为模块化。
Keep in mind that the Twelve Standard Forms of Value aren’t mutually exclusive: you can offer any number or combination of these forms to your potential customers to see which ones they like best. This strategy is called Modularity.
大多数成功的企业都以多种形式提供价值。以杂志行业为例。杂志收取每月或每年的订阅费，以换取定期邮寄的印刷杂志。同时，他们使用Audience Aggregation通过广告向订阅者出售访问权限，广告与内容一起包含在杂志中。
Most successful businesses offer value in multiple forms. Take the magazine industry, for example. Magazines charge a monthly or annual Subscription fee in exchange for a printed magazine delivered by mail on a periodic basis. Simultaneously, they use Audience Aggregation to sell access to their subscribers via advertising, which is included in the magazine alongside the content.
Orbitz 等旅游网站向网站访问者出售期权（机票）以及旅行取消保险和展示广告（受众群体）。电影院将电影放映（共享资源）与门票（选项）和特许销售（产品）结合起来。Netflix 和 Spotify 等公司提供对大型电影和音乐库（共享资源）的数字访问，以换取月费（订阅）。
Travel websites like Orbitz sell Options (airplane tickets) alongside trip-cancellation Insurance and display advertising (Audience Aggregation) to website visitors. Movie theaters combine movie showings (a Shared Resource) with tickets (an Option) and concession sales (Products). Companies like Netflix and Spotify provide digital access to a large library of movies and music (a Shared Resource) in exchange for a monthly fee (Subscription).
在大多数公司中，这些优惠中的每一个都是单独处理的，客户可以挑选他们想要利用的优惠。通过将报价模块化，企业可以单独创建和改进每个报价，然后根据需要混合和匹配报价以更好地为客户服务。这就像玩乐高积木：一旦您有了一组可以使用的零件，您就可以用各种有趣的方式将它们拼在一起。
In most companies, each of these offers is handled separately, and the customer can pick and choose which offers they want to take advantage of. By making offers Modular, the business can create and improve each offer in isolation, then mix and match offers as necessary to better serve their customers. It’s like playing with LEGOs: once you have a set of pieces to work with, you can put them together in all sorts of interesting ways.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/modularity/
捆绑和解除捆绑
Bundling and Unbundling
一点点这个一点点那个是新鲜事物进入世界的方式。
A bit of this and a bit of that is how newness enters the world.
——萨尔曼·拉什迪，小说家
—SALMAN RUSHDIE, NOVELIST
模块化的主要好处之一是它允许您利用称为捆绑的策略。捆绑允许您重新利用已经创造的价值来创造更多价值。
One of the primary benefits of Modularity is that it allows you to take advantage of a strategy called Bundling. Bundling allows you to repurpose value that you have already created to create even more value.
当您将多个较小的商品组合成一个较大的商品时，就会发生捆绑销售。捆绑的一个例子发生在手机行业，其中手机（实体产品）以单一价格与月度服务计划（订阅）捆绑在一起。同样，杂货店的买一送一优惠是捆绑销售的一种形式。
Bundling occurs when you combine multiple smaller offers into a single large offer. An example of Bundling occurs in the mobile phone industry, where a mobile phone (a physical Product) is bundled with a monthly service plan (a Subscription) for a single price. Similarly, buy-one-get-one-free offers at the grocery store are a form of Bundling.
捆绑包中包含的优惠越多，优惠的感知价值就越高，企业可以收取的费用也就越多。这就是为什么移动电话供应商在基本服务计划之上提供额外的通话时间、无限制的短信和互联网服务。提供的好处越多，客户通常就越愿意每月为整个套餐支付费用。
The more offers contained in the bundle, the higher the Perceived Value of the offer and the more the business can charge. That’s why mobile phone providers offer additional minutes, unlimited text messaging, and internet service on top of the basic service plan. The more benefits provided, the more a customer is often willing to pay on a monthly basis for the entire package.
分拆与捆绑相反：它接受一个报价并将其拆分为多个报价。分拆的一个很好的例子是销售单首歌曲而不是整张专辑的下载。顾客可能不愿意为这张专辑支付 10 美元，但他们可能愿意为他们喜欢的歌曲支付一两美元。将专辑拆分成单独的单元打开了销售之路，否则不会发生。
Unbundling is the opposite of Bundling: it’s taking one offer and splitting it up into multiple offers. A good example of Unbundling is selling downloads of a single song instead of the entire album. Customers may not be willing to pay $10 for the album, but they might be willing to pay a dollar or two for the songs they like. Unbundling the album into individual units opens the way to sales that wouldn’t otherwise happen.
捆绑和分拆可以帮助您为不同类型的客户创造价值，而无需创建新的东西。经过结合各种配置的报价和表格，您可以为客户提供他们想要的东西。
Bundling and Unbundling can help you create value for different types of customers without requiring the creation of something new. By combining offers and forms in various configurations, you can offer your customers what they want.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/bundling-unbundling/
中介和非中介
Intermediation and Disintermediation
发财的最快捷、最好的方法就是让人们清楚地看到，提升你的财富符合他们的利益。
The shortest and best way to make your fortune is to let people see clearly that it is in their interests to promote yours.
—JEAN DE LA BRUYÈRE，十七世纪的哲学家和讽刺作家
—JEAN DE LA BRUYÈRE, SEVENTEENTH-CENTURY PHILOSOPHER AND SATIRIST
另一种思考价值创造的方式涉及一个简单的问题：您的潜在购买者会发现多少帮助有用？
Another way of thinking about value creation involves a simple question: how much help would your Probable Purchaser find useful?
想想一个复杂的购买决定，比如买房子。你不能只是走进一家商店，检查所有可能的选择，选择最适合你的房子，然后走到收银台用现金或信用卡购买。查看可用房屋、明确需求和偏好、获得融资、谈判购买价格以及完成法律文书工作需要大量的时间、知识和专业知识。
Think of a complex buying decision, like purchasing a house. You can’t just walk into a store, examine all of the potential options, pick the house that suits you best, then walk up to a cash register to purchase it with cash or a credit card. Looking at available homes, clarifying needs and preferences, securing financing, negotiating the purchase price, and completing the legal paperwork takes a nontrivial amount of time, knowledge, and expertise.
这就是住宅房地产经纪人有市场的原因：潜在的购房者通常不知道选择（特别是如果他们不熟悉该地区），没有太多完成此类交易的经验，并且感到不知所措. 房地产经纪人协助搜索、购买决定和成交过程，购房者通常很乐意与了解他们在做什么的人合作。
That’s why residential real estate agents have a market: potential home buyers often don’t know the options (particularly if they’re not familiar with the area), don’t have a lot of experience completing these sorts of Transactions, and feel overwhelmed. Real estate agents assist in the search, purchase decision, and closing process, and home buyers are often happy to work with someone who knows what they’re doing.
这种帮助的术语是中介：在买卖双方之间添加一方，负责帮助一方完成交易或从购买中获得价值。
The term for this sort of help is Intermediation: adding a party between the buyer and seller responsible for helping one of the parties complete the Transaction or derive value from the purchase.
中介在购买者受益于专家指导和帮助的复杂情况下很有用。您经常会在有很多选项可供选择的区域找到中介机构，例如零售商决定进货哪些商品。它们在复杂的谈判和采购中也很常见，例如帮助企业家为其当前业务运营定价的商业经纪，然后帮助他们寻找潜力收购公司愿意支付其业务的价值。在大多数情况下，中介还充当双方之间的缓冲区，可以保护他们免受不必要的压力或不舒服的情况。
Intermediation is useful in complex situations where the purchaser benefits from guidance and help from experts. You’ll often find Intermediaries in areas where there are a lot of options to choose from—like retailers who decide which items to stock. They’re also common in complex negotiations and purchases, like business brokerages who help entrepreneurs put a price on their current business operations, then help them find potential acquiring companies willing to pay what their business is worth. In most cases, the Intermediary also acts as a Buffer between the parties, which can shield them from unnecessary pressure or uncomfortable situations.
中介的对立面是去中介：去除交易中不必要的各方，有利于买卖双方之间的直接联系。在互联网出现之前，大多数制造商如果想销售他们的商品就必须与零售商打交道，因为大规模广告和分销机会既昂贵又有限。互联网使制造商能够吸引潜在客户的注意力、完成购买并将商品直接交付给消费者：不需要零售商。因此，更多的产品和服务公司可以以盈利和可持续的方式存在：原本会被中介获取的利润可以重新用于降低价格、有针对性的广告、产品开发或利润。
The opposite of Intermediation is Disintermediation: removing unnecessary parties to a Transaction in favor of direct contact between the buyer and seller. Before the internet, most manufacturers had to deal with retailers if they wanted to sell their goods, since mass advertising and distribution opportunities were expensive and limited. The internet allowed manufacturers to attract the attention of potential customers, complete purchases, and deliver their goods direct to their consumers: no retailer required. As a result, more product and service companies can exist in a profitable and sustainable way: the Margins that would otherwise be captured by an Intermediary can be redirected toward lower prices, targeted advertising, product development, or Profit.
机会存在于频谱的两端：您的潜在客户会从更多帮助中受益，还是更少？
Opportunities exist at both ends of the spectrum: would your potential customers benefit from more help, or less?
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/intermediation-disintermediation/
原型
Prototype
就是这么简单：如果我从不尝试任何事情，我就永远学不到任何东西。
It’s this simple: if I never try anything, I never learn anything.
—HUGH PRATHER，《我自己的笔记》的作者
—HUGH PRATHER, AUTHOR OF NOTES TO MYSELF
陈规定型的产品开发模式是保密的：私下开发报价，让所有相关人员签署保密协议，2筹集数百万美元的风险投资，花费数年时间完善它，然后让世界和公众震惊地揭开你的创造收银机发出雷鸣般的响声。
The stereotypical product development model is shrouded in secrecy: develop the offer in private, make everyone involved sign nondisclosure agreements,2 raise millions of dollars in venture capital, spend years making it perfect, then unveil your creation to the astonishment of the world and the thunderous sound of ringing cash registers.
这种心态会毁了自己的职业生涯并清空银行账户。就其本身而言，想法是毫无价值的——发现你是否能让它们在现实中发挥作用是任何企业家最重要的工作。
This mentality ruins careers and empties bank accounts. On their own, ideas are worthless—discovering whether or not you can make them work in reality is the most important job of any entrepreneur.
不要羞于向潜在客户展示您正在进行的工作。除非你所在的行业有异常激进、有能力且资金雄厚的竞争对手，否则你不必担心其他人“窃取”你的想法。想法很便宜——重要的是有能力将一个想法转化为现实，这比识别一个好想法要困难得多。
Don’t be shy about showing potential customers your work in progress. Unless you work in an industry with unusually aggressive, competent, and well-funded competitors, you don’t have to worry about other people “stealing” your idea. Ideas are cheap—what counts is the ability to translate an idea into reality, which is much more difficult than recognizing a good idea.
“隐身模式”减少了您的早期学习机会，使您处于巨大的早期劣势。专注于尽快从真实客户那里获得反馈几乎总是更好。
“Stealth mode” diminishes your early learning opportunities, putting you at a huge early disadvantage. It’s almost always better to focus on getting feedback from real customers as soon as you can.
原型是您的产品外观的早期表示。它可以是物理模型、计算机渲染图、图表、流程图或描述主要优点和特性的单页纸。它不必花哨：您的原型所要做的就是以有形的方式代表您提供的产品，以便您的潜在客户能够了解您做得很好，足以给您良好的反馈。
A Prototype is an early representation of what your offering will look like. It may be a physical model, a computer rendering, a diagram, a flowchart, or a one-page paper that describes the major benefits and features. It doesn’t have to be fancy: all your Prototype has to do is represent what you’re offering in a tangible way, so that your potential customers can understand what you’re doing well enough to give you good feedback.
为获得最佳效果，请以与成品相同的形式创建原型。如果您正在创建实体产品，请制作有形模型。如果您正在制作网站，请使用基本组件创建一个有效的网页。如果您正在创建服务，请创建流程中发生的所有事情的图表或流程图，然后将其付诸实践。你的原型越逼真，人们就越容易理解你想做什么。
For best results, create your prototype in the same form as the finished product. If you’re creating a physical product, make a tangible model. If you’re making a website, create a working webpage with the basic components. If you’re creating a service, create a diagram or flowchart of everything that happens in the process, then act it out. The more realistic your Prototype is, the easier it’ll be for people to understand what you’re trying to do.
原型是您第一次尝试创建有用的东西，但它不会是您的最后一次。你的第一个将是贫穷和不完整的，这没关系。原型很有价值，因为它们可以让你在投入大量时间、金钱和精力到项目之前从真实的人那里得到好的反馈。原型的目的不是让它变得完美：它是为你的努力创造一个有形的焦点——你和其他人可以看到、评估和改进的东西。
The Prototype is your first attempt at creating something useful, but it won’t be your last. Your first will be poor and incomplete, and that’s okay. Prototypes are valuable because they allow you to get good feedback from real people before you invest a huge amount of time, money, and effort into the project. The purpose of a Prototype is not to make it perfect: it’s to create a tangible focus for your efforts—something you and other people can see, evaluate, and improve.
当您向潜在客户展示您的原型时，您将获得源源不断的想法和反馈，这将帮助您提供更好的产品。
As you show your Prototype to potential customers, you’ll get a steady stream of ideas and feedback that will help you make your offer even better.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/prototype/
迭代周期
The Iteration Cycle
我没有失败。我刚刚发现了一万种行不通的方法。
I have not failed. I’ve just found ten thousand ways that won’t work.
—托马斯·爱迪生，多产的发明家
—THOMAS EDISON, PROLIFIC INVENTOR
没有人——无论他们多么聪明或有才华——第一次就做对了。
Nobody—no matter how smart or talented they are—gets it right the first time.
为了证明，请考虑任何艺术杰作。在蒙娜丽莎完成的表面之下，您会发现一层又一层的草图草图、错误的开始和重大改动。西斯廷教堂的天花板上布满了数以亿计的细小笔触，每一笔都使最终的杰作更接近完成。米开朗基罗用了数百万次锤击才将一块粗糙的大理石变成了大卫像。
For proof, consider any artistic masterpiece. Beneath the finished surface of the Mona Lisa, you’ll find layer upon layer of draft sketches, false starts, and major alterations. The ceiling of the Sistine Chapel is covered with hundreds of millions of very small brushstrokes, each of which brought the resulting masterpiece one step closer to completion. It took Michelangelo millions of hammer strokes to turn a crude block of marble into David.
迭代周期是一个过程，你可以用它来随着时间的推移使任何事情变得更好。这些艺术家对其创作所做的不可避免的更改和修改并没有浪费任何东西：每一次迭代都使项目更接近完成。
The Iteration Cycle is a process you can use to make anything better over time. There’s nothing wasteful about the inevitable changes and revisions that these artists made to their creations: every iteration brought the project one step closer to completion.
迭代依赖于科学方法，它有五个一般步骤：
Iteration relies on the scientific method, which has five general steps:
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观察正在发生的事情并确定您想要改进的地方。
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Observe what’s happening and identify something that you’d like to improve.
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设计一个实验并确定指标，这些指标将告诉您预期的变化是否是一种改进。
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Design an experiment and identify indicators that will tell you whether or not the prospective change is an improvement.
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进行实验并收集数据。
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Conduct the experiment and collect data.
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评估实验结果。
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Evaluate the results of the experiment.
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接受或拒绝作为改进的更改。
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Accept or reject the change as an improvement.
迭代是一个循环——一旦你衡量了变化的结果并决定是否保留它，你就回到开始观察发生了什么，然后循环重复。
Iteration is a cycle—once you measure the results of the change and decide whether or not to keep it, you go back to the beginning to observe what’s happening, and the cycle repeats.
为获得最佳结果，请定义每次迭代要完成的目标。您是否想让产品更具吸引力或吸引力？您是否正在尝试添加人们会重视的新功能？您是否试图在不降低其价值的情况下降低产品成本？你越能定义你所追求的东西，就越容易理解你收到的反馈，你将从每个迭代周期中提取更多的价值。
For best results, define what you’re trying to accomplish with each iteration. Are you trying to make the offering more attractive or appealing? Are you trying to add a new feature people will value? Are you trying to make the offering cost less without detracting from its value? The better you can define what you’re after, the easier it’ll be to understand the Feedback you’re receiving and the more value you’ll extract from each Iteration Cycle.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/iteration-cycle/
迭代速度
Iteration Velocity
我们的目标是每单位时间和金钱的击球次数比任何人都多。
Our goal is to have more at bats per unit of time and money than anyone else.
——埃里克·施密特，谷歌前董事长兼首席执行官
—ERIC SCHMIDT, FORMER CHAIRMAN AND CEO OF GOOGLE
创建新产品时，您的主要目标应该是尽可能快地完成每个迭代周期。迭代是一种结构化的学习形式，可以帮助您改进产品；你学得越快，你就会进步得越快。
When creating a new offering, your primary goal should be to work your way through each Iteration Cycle as fast as possible. Iteration is a structured form of learning that helps you make your offering better; the faster you learn, the faster you’ll improve.
您在迭代周期中移动得越快，您的产品就会变得越好——这就是迭代速度。如果你做得好，你可以每天多次完成这个过程。关键是要保持每次迭代都小、清晰和快速，每次迭代都基于你从以前的迭代中学到的东西。
The faster you move through the Iteration Cycle, the better your offering will become—that’s Iteration Velocity. If you’re good, you can move through the process several times each day. The key is to keep each iteration small, clear, and quick, basing each iteration on what you learned via previous iterations.
迭代周期通常感觉像是额外的工作，因为它是额外的工作。这就是为什么很少有人这样做的原因：跳过所有这些“额外”步骤并尝试直接创建最终产品是非常诱人的。
The Iteration Cycle often feels like additional work because it is additional work. That’s why so few people do it: it’s very tempting to skip all of these “extra” steps and attempt to create the final offering outright.
直接方法的主要问题是风险：您将花费大量时间、精力和资源来创造可能卖不出去的东西。如果这个想法是一个失败的想法，那么通过一些快速的迭代周期来解决这个问题要比把农场押在一个根本行不通的想法或市场上要好得多。
The major problem with the direct approach is risk: you’re sinking a great deal of time, energy, and resources on creating something that may not sell. If the idea’s a dud, it’s far better to figure that out via a few quick Iteration Cycles than to bet the farm on an idea or market that just won’t work.
迭代可能需要一些额外的努力，但在你经历了几个周期之后，你将对市场有更深入的了解，直接了解人们想要足够支付的东西，并清楚地了解是否你有一个可行的报价给他们。
Iteration may take some additional effort up front, but after you’ve gone through a few cycles, you’ll have a deeper understanding of the market, direct knowledge of what people want enough to pay for, and a clear understanding of whether or not you have a viable offer to make to them.
如果你发现你拥有人们想要的东西，那就太好了——全速前进。如果您正在开发的东西没有需求，请继续下一个有前途的想法。
If you discover that you have what people want, great—full steam ahead. If there’s no demand for what you’re developing, move on to the next promising idea.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/iteration-velocity/
回馈
Feedback
没有任何商业计划能在与客户的第一次接触中幸存下来。
No business plan survives first contact with customers.
—史蒂文·加里·布兰克 (STEVEN GARY BLANK)，连续创业者和主显节四个步骤的作者
—STEVEN GARY BLANK, SERIAL ENTREPRENEUR AND AUTHOR OF THE FOUR STEPS TO THE EPIPHANY
从潜在客户那里获得有用的反馈是迭代周期的核心。来自真实潜在客户的有用反馈可帮助您在开发完成之前了解您的报价如何满足他们的需求，这使您可以在开始销售之前进行更改。
Getting useful Feedback from your potential customers is the core of the Iteration Cycle. Useful Feedback from real prospects helps you understand how well your offer meets their needs before development is complete, which allows you to make changes before you start selling.
这里有一些技巧可以最大限度地发挥您收到的反馈的价值：
Here are a few tips to maximize the value of the Feedback you receive:
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从真正的潜在客户而不是朋友和家人那里获得反馈。您的核心圈子希望您成功并希望与您保持良好的关系，因此他们很可能会无意中美化他们的反馈。为获得最佳结果，请确保从没有亲自投资于您或您的项目的人那里获得大量反馈。
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Get Feedback from real potential customers instead of friends and family. Your inner circle wants you to succeed and wants to maintain a good relationship with you, so it’s likely that they’ll unintentionally sugarcoat their Feedback. For best results, be sure to get plenty of Feedback from people who aren’t personally invested in you or your project.
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问开放式问题。收集反馈时，您应该多听少说。准备几个开放式问题，让谈话有条理，但鼓励对方进行大部分谈话。简短的 who/what/when/where/why/how 问题最有效。观察用户的行为，并将他们的行为与他们所说的进行比较。
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Ask open-ended questions. When collecting Feedback, you should be listening more than you talk. Have a few open-ended questions prepared to give the conversation a bit of structure, but otherwise encourage the other person to do most of the talking. Short who/what/when/where/why/how questions work best. Watch what the user does, and compare their actions with what they say.
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稳住自己，保持冷静。寻求真正的反馈（唯一有用的一种）需要厚脸皮——没有人喜欢听到他们的孩子丑。如果有人不喜欢你创造的东西，尽量不要生气或防御；他们告诉你是在为你服务。
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Steady yourself and keep calm. Asking for genuine Feedback (the only useful kind) requires thick skin—no one likes hearing their baby is ugly. Try not to get offended or defensive if someone doesn’t like what you’ve created; they’re doing you a great service by telling you so.
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对你听到的持保留态度。即使是最令人沮丧的反馈也包含可以帮助您改进产品的关键信息。在征求反馈时，你能得到的最糟糕的反应不是强烈的反感：而是完全的冷漠。如果似乎没有人关心您创建的内容，那么您就没有可行的商业创意。
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Take what you hear with a grain of salt. Even the most discouraging Feedback contains crucial pieces of information that can help you make your offering better. The worst response you can get when asking for Feedback isn’t emphatic dislike: it’s total apathy. If no one seems to care about what you’ve created, you don’t have a viable business idea.
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为潜在客户提供预购机会。在迭代过程中，您可以收到的最重要的反馈之一是其他人是否愿意购买您正在创建的产品。一个人说他们会买东西是一回事，而他们愿意掏出钱包或信用卡并真正下订单则是另一回事。即使报价尚未准备好，您也可以这样做——一种称为影子测试的策略。只要有可能，给给你反馈的人预购产品的机会。如果有相当多的人接受你的提议，那么你的状态很好：你知道你有一个可靠的提议并且你增加了你的现金流。如果没有人愿意预订，您就知道在获得可行的报价之前还有更多工作要做。通过询问他们为什么现在不愿意购买，您会发现他们的主要购买障碍——是什么阻碍了他们。
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Give potential customers the opportunity to preorder. One of the most important pieces of Feedback you can receive during the iteration process is the other person’s willingness to purchase what you’re creating. It’s one thing for a person to say that they’d purchase something and quite another for them to be willing to pull out their wallet or credit card and place a real order. You can do this even if the offer isn’t ready yet—a tactic called Shadow Testing. Whenever possible, give the people who are giving you Feedback the opportunity to preorder the offering. If a significant number of people take you up on the offer, you’re in good shape: you know that you have a solid offering and you boost your cash flow. If no one is willing to preorder, you know you have more work to do before you have a viable offer. By asking why they’re not willing to purchase right now, you’ll discover their major Barriers to Purchase—what’s holding them back.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/feedback/
备择方案
Alternatives
在一个人做出承诺之前，会有犹豫，有退缩的机会，总是无效的。关于所有主动和创造的行为，有一个基本真理，无知会扼杀无数的想法和绝妙的计划：当一个人下定决心做出自己的决定时，天意也会随之而来。
Until one is committed, there is hesitancy, the chance to draw back, always ineffectiveness. Concerning all acts of initiative and creation, there is one elementary truth the ignorance of which kills countless ideas and splendid plans: that the moment one definitely commits oneself, the providence moves too.
—WH MURRAY，登山者和作家
—W. H. MURRAY, MOUNTAINEER AND WRITER
现在是星期五晚上。你饿了，正在考虑出去吃饭。你已经决定，你很重视为你准备的食物，足以证明额外的费用是合理的。你应该去哪里吃晚饭？
It’s Friday night. You’re hungry and you’re thinking about going out to eat. You’ve already decided that you value having food prepared for you enough to justify the extra expense. Where should you go for dinner?
如果您去附近的餐厅，您将能够以合理的价格享用种类繁多的美味佳肴。这个地方可能不是很花哨，但您知道您会享用一顿美餐而无需大惊小怪或花费太多。
If you go to the neighborhood diner, you’ll have access to a large variety of decent food at a reasonable price. The place may not be very fancy, but you know you’ll be served a pretty good meal without a lot of fuss or expense.
如果您去一个时髦的热点，您将享受到迷人的装饰、无可挑剔的服务和精致的美食。你将有一个令人印象深刻的故事要告诉你的朋友，以及在镇上度过一个重要夜晚的期待和兴奋。在晚上结束时，您还会有一个更重的选项卡。
If you go to a swanky hot spot, you’ll be treated to attractive decor, impeccable service, and sophisticated cuisine. You’ll have an impressive story to tell your friends, as well as the anticipation and excitement of a big night on the town. You’ll also have a heftier tab at the end of the evening.
除非你真的很饿，否则你不会在同一晚光顾两家餐厅——这是一个非此即彼的决定。同时，没有“正确”的决定——事实上，您可能会选择今天晚上去餐厅，第二天去时髦的餐厅。这完全取决于您在决定去哪里吃饭时最看重的是什么。
Unless you’re really hungry, you won’t patronize both restaurants on the same evening—it’s an either/or decision. At the same time, there’s no “right” decision—in fact, you may choose to go to the diner one evening and the trendy restaurant the next. It all depends on what you value most at the moment you decide where to eat.
现在让我们翻转一下情况。您是餐厅的老板，您正在寻找更好地为顾客服务并将新人带入餐厅的方法。你应该重点改进什么？扩大您的主菜选择、减少服务客户所需的时间或改造餐厅是否会对底线产生最大的影响？
Now let’s flip the situation. You’re the owner of the diner, and you’re looking for ways to serve your customers better and bring new people into the restaurant. What should you focus on improving? Would expanding your entrée selection, reducing the time it takes to serve customers, or remodeling the restaurant make the biggest difference to the bottom line?
在一个完美的世界里，最好做所有这些事情，但最近生意不景气，而且你没有无限的预算可以使用。您知道您需要做一些事情，但不清楚哪些改进（如果有的话）会使收银机更频繁地响起。你做什么工作？
In a perfect world, it would be best to do all of these things, but business has been lackluster recently, and you don’t have an unlimited budget to work with. You know you need to do something, but it’s not clear which improvements—if any—would make the cash register ring more often. What do you do?
在开发产品时，您无法避免在相互竞争的备选方案之间做出选择。您是否应该添加特定功能？您应该针对市场 A 进行优化，还是针对市场 B 进行优化，还是同时取悦两者？如果你在产品上投入更多，你的客户是否愿意支付更多费用来支付费用？
As you develop your offering, you can’t avoid making choices between competing Alternatives. Should you add a particular feature, or not? Should you optimize for market A, optimize for market B, or attempt to please both? If you invest more in the offering, will your customers be willing to pay more to defray the expense?
检查可能的备选方案并考虑客户的观点可以做出更好的选择。当您决定包含哪些内容和省略哪些内容时，必须了解潜在客户在决定是否购买您的产品时所面临的替代方案。了解选项后，您可以检查这些备选方案的组合和排列以提供有吸引力的报价。
Examining the possible Alternatives and considering the customer’s perspective results in better choices. As you make decisions about what to include and what to leave out, it’s essential to appreciate the Alternatives that your potential customers face when they decide whether or not to purchase your offering. Once you’re aware of the options, you can examine the combinations and permutations of those Alternatives to present an attractive offer.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/alternatives/
取舍
Trade-offs
我不能给你一个万无一失的成功公式，但我可以给你一个失败的公式：一直努力取悦所有人。
I can’t give you a surefire formula for success, but I can give you a formula for failure: try to please everybody all the time.
——赫伯特·贝亚德·斯沃普，普利策奖获奖记者
—HERBERT BAYARD SWOPE, PULITZER PRIZE–WINNING JOURNALIST
权衡是对几个竞争选项之一赋予更高价值的决定。我们生活在一个时间、精力和资源都有限的世界里。一天只有二十四小时，你只有那么多可用的能量，而且在任何给定时间，你能花的钱都有上限。当你不能做你想做的一切时，你会怎么做？
A Trade-off is a decision that places a higher value on one of several competing options. We live in a world where time, energy, and resources are finite. There are only twenty-four hours in a day, you only have so much available energy, and at any given time there’s an upper limit on the amount of money you’re able to spend. What do you do when you can’t do everything you want?
你不可能一直拥有你想要的一切。即使您的银行账户足够大，可以购买私人岛屿，您仍然面临购买哪个私人岛屿的决定。你可能想要一切，但你不能拥有一切，所以你通过选择具有在你做出决定的那一刻对你最重要的特征的选项来尽力而为。
You can’t have everything you want all of the time. Even if your bank account is large enough to purchase a private island, you’re still faced with the decision of which private island to buy. You may want it all, but you can’t have it all, so you do the best you can by choosing the option with the characteristics that matter most to you at the moment you make the decision.
每一天的每一分钟，你和你周围的人都在做取舍。其中一些权衡是经济的：你应该买哪条裤子？其中一些是临时性的：你应该和朋友一起去拜访还是去看电影？其中一些与努力有关：你应该去参加团队会议还是完成逾期的 TPS 报告？
Every minute of every day, you and the people around you are making Trade-offs. Some of these Trade-offs are economic: Which pair of pants should you purchase? Some of them are temporal: Should you visit with friends or go to a movie? Some of them are about effort: Should you go to the team meeting or complete the overdue TPS report?
预测人们将如何做出某些权衡是很棘手的——价值观会随着环境和背景而改变。价值观是偏好——我们对一个特定的对象、品质或存在状态相对于另一个的想要、渴望或重视程度。你今天早上看重的可能与你今天下午或晚上看重的不同。你今天想要的可能与你明天想要的不同。
Predicting how people will make certain Trade-offs is tricky—values change, given the environment and context. Values are preferences—how much we want, desire, or place importance on one particular object, quality, or state of being versus another. What you value this morning may be different from what you value this afternoon or this evening. What you want today may be different from what you want tomorrow.
在决定在您的产品中包含什么时，寻找模式是值得的——关于特定人群在特定环境下如何倾向于重视某些特征的信息。您做出的包含哪些内容和省略哪些内容的决定永远不会让每个人都满意，因此完美不应该是您的目标。通过关注最佳客户价值背后的模式，您将能够在大部分时间专注于为大多数最佳潜在客户改进产品。
When making decisions about what to include in your offering, it pays to look for patterns—information about how specific groups of people tend to value some characteristic in a certain context. The decisions you make about what to include and what to leave out will never make everyone happy, so perfection shouldn’t be your goal. By paying attention to the patterns behind what your best customers value, you’ll be able to focus on improving your offering for most of your best potential customers most of the time.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/tradeoffs/
经济价值
Economic Values
一个成功的企业要么被喜爱，要么被需要。
A successful business is either loved or needed.
—TED LEONSIS，AOL 前高管，华盛顿奇才队和华盛顿首都队的所有者
—TED LEONSIS, FORMER EXECUTIVE AT AOL AND OWNER OF THE WASHINGTON WIZARDS AND WASHINGTON CAPITALS
每次您的客户向您购买产品时，他们都在决定他们对您所提供的产品的重视程度超过他们当时可以购买的任何其他产品。在开发产品时，您的首要任务之一应该是找出您的潜在客户比他们钱包中的美元购买力更看重什么。
Every time your customers purchase from you, they’re deciding that they value what you have to offer more than they value anything else their money could buy at that moment. As you develop your offering, one of your first priorities should be to find out what your potential customers value more than the buying power of the dollars in their wallets.
每个人在任何给定时间的价值观都略有不同，但在人们评估潜在购买时会出现一些常见模式。假设所承诺的收益具有吸引力，那么人们在评估潜在购买时会考虑九种共同的经济价值。他们是：
Everyone has slightly different values at any given time, but there are a few common patterns that appear when people evaluate a potential purchase. Assuming the promised benefits of the offering are appealing, there are nine common Economic Values that people consider when evaluating a potential purchase. They are:
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功效——效果如何？
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Efficacy—how well does it work?
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速度——多久能见效？
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Speed—how soon does it work?
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可靠性——我能依靠它做我想做的事吗？
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Reliability—can I depend on it to do what I want?
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易用性——需要多少努力？
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Ease of use—how much effort does it require?
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灵活性——它能做多少事情？
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Flexibility—how many things does it do?
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地位——这如何影响别人对我的看法？
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Status—how does this affect the way others perceive me?
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审美诉求——它有多吸引人或在审美上令人愉悦？
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Aesthetic appeal—how attractive or otherwise aesthetically pleasing is it?
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情感——它让我感觉如何？
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Emotion—how does it make me feel?
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成本——我必须放弃多少才能得到它？
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Cost—how much do I have to give up to get it?
在《权衡：为什么有些事情会流行，而另一些不会》一书中，凯文·马尼 (Kevin Maney) 从两个主要特征方面讨论了这些共同价值观：便利性和保真度。快速、可靠、简单和灵活的东西很方便。提供质量、地位、审美吸引力或情感影响的事物是高保真度的。
In the book Trade-Off: Why Some Things Catch On, and Others Don’t, Kevin Maney discusses these common values in terms of two primary characteristics: convenience and fidelity. Things that are quick, reliable, easy, and flexible are convenient. Things that offer quality, status, aesthetic appeal, or emotional impact are high fidelity.
您对报价所做的几乎每一项改进都可以从提高便利性或保真度的角度来考虑。这非常困难同时优化保真度和便利性，因此最成功的产品试图在所有竞争产品中提供最大的便利性或保真度。如果您想吃比萨饼，芝加哥原始 Pizzeria Uno 的餐桌非常逼真；多米诺的送货上门很方便。Pizzeria Uno 从提供卓越的用餐体验中获益更多，而 Domino's 从尽可能快地提供美味的比萨饼中获益更多。
Almost every improvement you make to an offer can be thought of in terms of improving either convenience or fidelity. It’s incredibly difficult to optimize for both fidelity and convenience at the same time, so the most successful offerings try to provide the most convenience or fidelity among all competing offerings. If you’re craving pizza, a table at the original Pizzeria Uno in Chicago is high fidelity; Domino’s home delivery is convenient. Pizzeria Uno benefits more from making the dining experience remarkable, while Domino’s benefits more from delivering decent pizza as fast as possible.
在开发新产品时做出的权衡赋予每个选项独特的身份。这是服装行业的一个例子：Old Navy、Banana Republic 和 Gap 属于同一家公司 Gap Inc。所有这三个系列都生产相同类型的服装——衬衫、裤子等——但提供不同的权衡.
The Trade-offs that are made in the development of new offerings are what give each option its unique identity. Here’s an example from the apparel business: Old Navy, Banana Republic, and Gap are owned by the same company, Gap Inc. All three lines make the same types of clothing—shirts, pants, and so on—but offer different Trade-offs.
该公司没有尝试制作一个旨在吸引所有人的服装系列（这是不可能的，因为每个人都想要不同的东西），而是将每条线都集中在一个特定的权衡上。Old Navy 强调功能性和低成本。Gap 以适中的成本强调风格和时尚。香蕉共和国以高价强调美学和社会地位。每条线都有自己的身份，并吸引不同类型的潜在客户，即使服装可能使用相同的流程制造，并且收入最终落入同一家公司的金库。
Instead of attempting to make a single clothing line that’s designed to appeal to everyone (which is impossible, since everyone wants something different), the company focused each line around a specific Trade-off. Old Navy emphasizes functionality and low cost. Gap emphasizes style and fashion at a moderate cost. Banana Republic emphasizes aesthetics and Social Status at a premium cost. Each line has its own identity and appeals to a different type of potential customer, even though the clothes may be manufactured using the same processes and the revenues end up in the coffers of the same company.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/economic-values/
相对重要性测试
Relative Importance Testing
最重要的事情绝不能受最不重要的事情的支配。
Things which matter most must never be at the mercy of things which matter least.
——约翰·沃尔夫冈·冯·歌德，18 世纪的诗人、戏剧家和博学者
—JOHANN WOLFGANG VON GOETHE, EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY POET, DRAMATIST, AND POLYMATH
试图弄清楚人们想要什么的棘手之处在于人们什么都想要。证据如下：将一组潜在客户召集到一个焦点小组中。要求每位参与者以 0 到 10 的等级对九个经济价值中的每一个的重要性进行评分。结果会是什么样子？
The tricky thing about trying to figure out what people want is that people want everything. Here’s proof: bring together a group of potential customers for a focus group. Ask each participant to rate the importance of each of the nine Economic Values for your offering on a scale of 0 to 10. What will the results look like?
无论您使用何种产品或服务，结果都是一样的：您的客户希望产品每次都能毫不费力地提供出色的结果。同时，他们希望这份工作能让他们变得富有、出名、有吸引力并且永远幸福。他们也希望它是免费的。如果你问他们愿意放弃什么，他们会回答说一切都很重要，少了他们会不高兴。
Regardless of your product or service, the results will be the same: your customers want products that provide exceptional results every time, with no effort. Simultaneously, they want the offer to make them rich, famous, attractive, and eternally blissful. They also want it to be free. If you ask them what they’d be willing to give up, they’ll answer that everything is important and they won’t be happy with less.
焦点小组之外的现实总是截然不同。小组休会后，每个参与者都会出去购买一些不免费且不完美的东西，他们会对自己的选择感到满意。为什么？
The reality outside of the focus group is always quite different. After the group adjourns, each of those participants will go out and purchase something that’s not free and not perfect, and they’ll be happy with their choice. Why?
通常，除非被迫做出决定，否则人们永远不会接受权衡。如果存在完美的选择，他们就会购买。由于没有完美的产品，人们很乐意接受Next Best Alternative。
As a rule, people never accept Trade-offs unless they’re forced to make a Decision. If the perfect option existed, they’d buy it. Since there’s no such thing as the perfect offering, people are happy to settle for the Next Best Alternative.
发现人们重视什么的最好方法是让他们在研究过程中做出明确的权衡。假设的焦点小组的问题在于它没有要求参与者做出任何真正的决定——参与者可以拥有一切，所以他们想要一切。
The best way to discover what people value is to ask them to make explicit Trade-offs during the research process. The problem with the hypothetical focus group was that it didn’t ask the participants to make any real Decisions—the participants could have everything, so they wanted everything.
相对重要性测试——一组由统计学家 Jordan Louviere 在 1980 年代3开创的分析技术——通过向他们提出一系列旨在模拟现实生活中的权衡取舍的简单问题，为您提供了一种确定人们想要什么的方法。这是它的工作原理。
Relative Importance Testing—a set of analysis techniques pioneered by statistician Jordan Louviere in the 1980s3—gives you a way to determine what people want by asking them a series of simple questions designed to simulate real-life Trade-offs. Here’s how it works.
假设我们正在对前面提到的餐厅进行相对重要性测试。我们没有要求参与者从 0 到 10 对每个好处进行排名，而是向参与者展示如下内容：
Let’s assume we’re conducting a Relative Importance Test for the diner previously mentioned. Instead of asking the participant to rank each benefit from 0 to 10, we show the participant something like the following:
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订单在五分钟或更短时间内送达餐桌。
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Orders delivered to table in five minutes or less.
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大多数主菜价格低于 20 美元。
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Most entrée prices under $20.
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吸引人的餐厅装饰。
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ppealing restaurant decor.
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种类繁多的菜单选项。
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Large variety of menu options.
显示此集合后，将向参与者提出以下问题：
After this set is shown, the participant is asked the following questions:
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这些项目中哪一项最重要？
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Which of these items is most important?
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这些项目中哪一项最不重要？
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Which of these items is least important?
一旦参与者回答了问题，就会显示另一组：
Once the participant answers the questions, another set is shown:
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我在其他任何地方都吃不到的独特主菜。
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Unique entrées I can’t get anywhere else.
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知道我总能点到我最喜欢的菜。
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Knowing I can always order my favorite dishes.
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人们对我在这里用餐印象深刻。
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People are impressed that I dine here.
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大部分。
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Large portions.
提供包含四个或五个标准的随机问题集，直到没有更多可能的组合或参与者的注意力分散，这通常发生在五到十分钟左右。
Random question sets containing four or five criteria are provided until there are no more possible combinations or the participant’s attention wanders, which often occurs around the five- to ten-minute mark.
参与者不会花很长时间回答这些简单的问题，但结果非常有启发性。通过要求参与者做出实际选择，您可以收集更准确的信息，了解参与者在现实世界中面临类似选择时的反应。当对结果进行汇总和分析时，每个好处的相对重要性就会变得非常清楚。每个参与者完成的组数越多，您就越能判断每个好处的相对重要性。4个
It won’t take the participant long to provide a response to each of these simple questions, but the results are quite revealing. By asking the participant to make an actual choice, you’re collecting more accurate information about how the participant would respond when faced with a similar choice in the real world. When the results are aggregated and analyzed, the relative importance of each benefit becomes very clear. The more sets each participant completes, the better you’ll be able to judge the relative importance of each benefit.4
相对重要性测试可以帮助您确定您应该关注哪些优势，以使您的产品具有最大的吸引力。
Relative Importance Testing can help you determine which benefits you should focus on to make your offering maximally attractive.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/relative-importance-testing/
关键假设
Critical Assumptions
粗略正确总比精确错误好。
It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.
——约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯，经济学家
—JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES, ECONOMIST
想象一下，您有兴趣开设一家瑜伽馆。市场机会看起来不错：您认为您已经确定了一个需求量大且服务欠缺的社区，并且居民有足够的可支配收入来支付每月 100 美元以上的会员费。您已经勾勒出空间的外观，并且大致了解了您想要提供的不同风格以及您要请谁来教课。
Imagine that you’re interested in opening a yoga studio. The market opportunity looks good: you believe that you’ve identified an underserved neighborhood with significant demand and residents with enough discretionary income to pay a $100-plus monthly membership fee. You’ve sketched out what the space would look like and you have a rough idea of the different styles you’d like to offer and whom you’d bring in to teach classes.
您找到了一个合适的位置，您可以以每月 10,000 美元左右的价格租用（如果您签了 12 个月的租约），并且您估计您将需要每月额外支付 12,000 美元，用于支付员工工资和其他每月运营费用。您还需要预先花费大约 5,000 美元购买设备：垫子、积木和一台用于处理会员记录的计算机。
You’ve found a suitable location that you can rent for around $10,000 per month (if you sign a twelve-month lease), and you estimate that you’ll need an additional $12,000 per month to pay employee salaries and other monthly operating expenses. You’ll also need to spend around $5,000 up front for equipment: mats, blocks, and a computer to handle membership records.
与您合作的商业房地产经纪人正在向您施加压力，要求您尽快行动，并表示如果您现在不承诺，您想要的位置可能会被其他租户抢走。您目前生活中的积蓄足以支付启动费用和三个月的预计运营费用。您很兴奋，但您想确保在继续前进之前做出正确的决定。你应该签租约吗？
The commercial real estate agent you’re working with is putting pressure on you to move fast, saying the location you want may be snatched up by another tenant if you don’t commit now. Your current life’s savings are enough to cover the start-up costs and three months of projected operating expenses. You’re excited, but you want to ensure that you’re making the right decision before you move forward. Should you sign the lease?
像这样的故事很常见：一个兴奋的初次创业者梦想拥有一家餐馆、酒吧或书店，因此他们投入毕生积蓄并背负巨额债务来开办新企业。有时这些故事很成功。通常情况下，几个月后，新企业家就会破产并停业，他们想知道事情怎么会变得如此糟糕。
Stories like this are very common: an excited first-time entrepreneur has a dream of owning a restaurant, bar, or bookstore, so they invest their life’s savings and take on significant debt to open the new business. Sometimes these stories work out well. More often than not, in a few months the new entrepreneur is bankrupt and out of business, wondering how things went so terribly wrong.
关键假设是现实世界中必须真实存在的事实或特征，您的业务或产品才能成功。每个企业或产品都有一组关键假设，这些假设将决定其是否继续存在：如果这些关键假设中的任何一个被证明是错误的，那么商业理念将不如它看起来那么有前途。
Critical Assumptions are facts or characteristics that must be true in the real world for your business or offering to be successful. Every business or offering has a set of Critical Assumptions that will make or break its continued existence: if any of these Critical Assumptions turns out to be false, the business idea will be less promising than it appears.
前面的瑜伽馆示例具有三个主要的关键假设：
The previous yoga studio example has three primary Critical Assumptions:
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该社区的个人愿意承诺每月支付 100 美元或更多，以获得离家近的瑜伽会员资格。
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Individuals in this neighborhood will be willing to commit to pay $100 or more per month for a yoga membership close to their home.
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该企业将能够在三个月内吸引至少 220 名支付全价的会员。
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The business will be able to attract at least 220 members paying full price within three months.
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未来十二个月的月总收入将超过 22,000 美元，这是最短租期。
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Total monthly revenues will exceed $22,000 for the next twelve months, which is the minimum duration of the lease term.
让我们来看看如果这些关键假设被证明是错误的，瑜伽馆会发生什么：
Let’s examine what would happen to the yoga studio if these Critical Assumptions turn out to be false:
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最初的兴趣很高，但大多数参观新工作室的人都不愿意每月支付 100 美元，他们说他们宁愿开车几英里也愿意支付 75 美元。该工作室将价格降至 75 美元，这意味着现在需要 300 名成员来维持工作室的运转。降价后，会员人数按计划达到 220 人，但这还不足以让工作室继续营业。
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Initial interest is high, but most of the people who tour the new studio balk at paying $100 per month, saying that they’d rather drive a few miles and pay $75. The studio lowers prices to $75, which means 300 members are now required to keep the studio afloat. After lowering prices, membership reaches the 220-member mark as planned, but it’s not enough to keep the studio open.
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该工作室没有吸引到足够的会员来支付账单，因为附近的瑜伽爱好者已经与几英里外的工作室签订了为期 12 个月的会员合同。工作室的钱用完了，关门了。
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The studio doesn’t attract enough members to pay the bills because yoga enthusiasts in the neighborhood are already locked into twelve-month membership contracts with a studio a few miles away. The studio runs out of money and closes.
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一个非常好的竞争工作室大约在同一时间在同一个社区开业。三个月后，工作室只剩下维持自身所需的一半成员。租期还有九个月，财务前景黯淡。
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A very nice competing studio opens up in the same neighborhood around the same time. After three months, the studio only has half of the members it needs to sustain itself. With nine more months on the lease, the financial outlook is bleak.
如果您可以提前识别这些假设并测试它们是否正确，您将承担更少的风险并对您的决策的智慧更有信心。
If you can identify these assumptions in advance and test whether or not they’re true, you’ll take fewer risks and have more confidence in the wisdom of your decisions.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/critical-assumptions/
影子测试
Shadow Testing
Praemonitus praemunitus（预先警告是预先准备好的）。
Praemonitus praemunitus (forewarned is forearmed).
——罗马谚语
—ROMAN PROVERB
验证关键假设真实性的最佳方法是对其进行测试，但是经历创业的整个过程是不必要的风险和昂贵的。在您完全承诺将其变为现实之前，通过与真正的付费客户测试您的产品来最大程度地降低风险会更加明智。
The best way to validate the truth of your Critical Assumptions is to test them, but going through the entire process of starting the business is needlessly risky and expensive. It’s much smarter to minimize your risk by testing your offering with real paying customers before you fully commit to making it real.
影子测试是在产品存在之前销售产品的过程。只要您预先告知潜在客户该产品仍在开发中，影子测试就是一种非常有用的策略，您可以使用它来与真实客户一起测试您的关键假设。
Shadow Testing is the process of selling an offering before it exists. As long as you’re up front with your potential customers that the offering is still in development, Shadow Testing is a very useful strategy you can use to test your Critical Assumptions with real customers.
真正的付费客户总是不同于假设的客户。影子测试可以让您获得重要的客户反馈，这是您无法通过其他方式获得的：人们是否会为您提供的产品付费发展。为了尽量减少您在项目中承担的风险，您的目标应该是尽快开始从真正的付费客户那里收集数据。
Real paying customers are always different from hypothetical customers. Shadow Testing allows you to get a critical piece of customer feedback you can get in no other way: whether or not people will pay for what you’re developing. In order to minimize the risk you’re taking on in committing to the project, your objective should be to start gathering data from real paying customers as soon as possible.
Fitbit 是一家了解影子测试价值的公司。Fitbit 由 Eric Friedman 和 James Park 于 2008 年 9 月创立，生产小型可穿戴运动和睡眠数据收集设备。Fitbit 设备全天候跟踪您的活动水平，然后将您的数据上传到网络，分析您的健康、健身和睡眠模式。
Fitbit is a company that knows the value of Shadow Testing. Founded by Eric Friedman and James Park in September 2008, Fitbit makes a small, wearable exercise and sleep data-gathering device. The Fitbit device tracks your activity levels throughout the day and night, then uploads your data to the web, where it analyzes your health, fitness, and sleep patterns.
这是一个巧妙的概念，但创建新硬件既费时又昂贵，而且充满风险，所以这就是 Friedman 和 Park 所做的。在他们向全世界宣布 Fitbit 理念的同一天，他们开始允许客户在他们的网站上预订 Fitbit，仅基于对设备功能的描述和产品外观的一些渲染图。计费系统收集了姓名、地址和经过验证的信用卡号码，但在产品准备好发货之前不会处理任何费用，这让公司可以在计划失败的情况下出局。
It’s a neat concept, but creating new hardware is time consuming, expensive, and fraught with risk, so here’s what Friedman and Park did. The same day they announced the Fitbit idea to the world, they started allowing customers to preorder a Fitbit on their website, based on little more than a description of what the device would do and a few renderings of what the product would look like. The billing system collected names, addresses, and verified credit card numbers, but no charges were processed until the product was ready to ship, which gave the company an out in case their plans fell through.
订单开始源源不断，一个月后，投资者有信心投入 200 万美元，让 Fitbit 成为现实。一年后，第一台真正的 Fitbit 被交付给客户。这就是影子测试的力量。
Orders started rolling in, and one month later, investors had the confidence to pony up $2 million dollars to make the Fitbit a reality. A year later, the first real Fitbit was shipped to customers. That’s the power of Shadow Testing.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/shadow-testing/
最低可行报价
Minimum Viable Offer
如果您对产品的第一个版本不感到尴尬，那么您推出的太晚了。
If you’re not embarrassed by the first version of your product, you’ve launched too late.
——雷德·霍夫曼，LinkedIn 联合创始人
—REID HOFFMAN, COFOUNDER OF LINKEDIN
为了进行影子测试，您需要出售一些东西。幸运的是，您不必在开始销售之前创建整个报价。
In order to conduct Shadow Testing, you need something to sell. Fortunately, you don’t have to create the entire offer before you start selling.
最低可行报价是承诺和/或提供产生实际销售所需的最少利益的报价。Minimum Viable Offer 是一种原型，已经发展到有人会掏出钱包并承诺进行购买的程度。它不必很复杂：Fitbit 的最低可行报价是一个原型、一个描述和一些计算机效果图。您需要做的就是传达足够的信息以说服真正的潜在客户购买。
A Minimum Viable Offer is an offer that promises and/or provides the smallest number of benefits necessary to produce an actual sale. A Minimum Viable Offer is a Prototype that’s been developed to the point that someone will pull out their wallet and commit to making a purchase. It doesn’t have to be complicated: Fitbit’s Minimum Viable Offer was a Prototype, a description, and a few computer renderings. All you need to do is convey enough information to convince a real potential customer to buy.
创建 Minimum Viable Offer 很有用，因为不可能 100% 准确地预测什么会提前起作用。你不想在没有成功机会的事情上投入大量时间和金钱，你越快弄清楚你的想法是否可行，你就会越好。
Creating a Minimum Viable Offer is useful because it’s impossible to predict with 100 percent accuracy what will work in advance. You don’t want to invest a ton of time and money in something that has no chance of working, and the faster you can figure out if your idea will work or not, the better off you’ll be.
由于来自潜在客户的反馈和全额付款订单是截然不同的事情，创建最低可行报价可以让您开始从真实客户那里收集数据，测试想法的关键假设，并降低做出业务终止投资决策的风险.
Since Feedback from prospective customers and paid-in-full orders are very different things, creating a Minimum Viable Offer allows you to start collecting data from real customers, testing the idea’s Critical Assumptions, and reducing the risk of making a business-ending investment decision.
以下是我们之前讨论的假设瑜伽工作室如何使用最低可行报价和影子测试来评估其关键假设：
Here’s how the hypothetical yoga studio we discussed earlier could use a Minimum Viable Offer and Shadow Testing to evaluate its Critical Assumptions:
第 1 步：创建一个简单的网站，详细描述工作室，包括位置、暂定时间表、教学人员、空间草图和会员费。该网站包括一个注册表单，访问者可以通过提交信用卡信息来预订会员资格。通过注册，会员承诺在工作室开业时成为 12 个月的会员，但如果他们不喜欢，他们有机会在第一个月内取消。如果工作室不开放，所有预订将被免费取消。总成本：几百美元。
Step 1: Create a simple website describing the studio in detail, including location, tentative schedule, teaching staff, sketches of the space, and membership fees. The site includes a sign-up form for visitors to preorder memberships by submitting their credit card information. By signing up, members commit to a twelve-month membership when the studio opens, but they have the opportunity to cancel within the first month if they don’t like it. If the studio doesn’t open, all preorders are canceled without charge. Total cost: a few hundred dollars.
第 2 步：将潜在客户引导至该网站。这可以通过多种方式廉价地完成：传单、上门查询、直邮和本地搜索引擎广告。总成本：几百美元。
Step 2: Direct prospective customers to the website. This can be done inexpensively in any number of ways: flyers, door-to-door inquiry, direct mail, and local search-engine advertising. Total cost: a few hundred dollars.
第 3 步：跟踪有多少人通过网站以全价预订会员资格或索取额外信息。总成本：几个小时的分析。
Step 3: Track how many individuals preorder memberships at the full rate via the website or request additional information. Total cost: a few hours of analysis.
这种测试方法简单、快速且便宜。诸如 Kickstarter ( www.kickstarter.com ) 之类的服务正在使这些测试变得简单：让潜在客户预订所需的只是一段视频、一些草图或效果图以及基本的销售文案。花费几个小时和几百测试你的关键假设的美元是一种很好的金钱使用方式，尤其是当你的发现表明你的商业想法行不通时。
This method of testing is simple, fast, and inexpensive. Services like Kickstarter (www.kickstarter.com) are making tests like these easy: all it takes to allow potential customers to preorder is a video, a few sketches or renderings, and basic sales copy. Spending a few hours and a few hundred dollars testing your Critical Assumptions is a very good use of money, particularly if your findings indicate your business idea won’t work.
从最低可行报价开始的目的是将您的风险降至最低。通过保持少量、渐进和以学习为导向的投资，您将能够发现哪些有效，哪些无效。如果这个想法很有前途，那么您就可以很好地实现它。如果您的假设不成立，您可以在不损失衬衫或尊严的情况下减少损失。
The purpose of starting with a Minimum Viable Offer is to minimize your risk. By keeping the investments small, incremental, and learning oriented, you’ll be able to discover what works and what doesn’t. If the idea is promising, you’re in a great position to make it happen. If your assumptions don’t hold true, you’re able to cut your losses without losing your shirt or your dignity.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/minimum-viable-offer/
增量增强
Incremental Augmentation
选择三个关键属性或特征，把这些东西做得非常非常好，然后忘掉其他一切。. . 通过仅关注第一个版本中的几个核心功能，您将被迫找到产品的真正本质和价值。
Pick three key attributes or features, get those things very, very right, and then forget about everything else . . . By focusing on only a few core features in the first version, you are forced to find the true essence and value of the product.
— PAUL BUCHHEIT，GMAIL 和 Google Adsense 的创建者
—PAUL BUCHHEIT, CREATOR OF GMAIL AND GOOGLE ADSENSE
一旦你的最低可行报价开始销售并且你已经证明你的关键假设是有效的，你的状态就很好，但你还没有完成。如果您致力于提供尽可能好的报价，如果您想保持竞争力并吸引更多客户，则需要不断进行小的更改以改善报价。
Once your Minimum Viable Offer is selling and you’ve proven that your Critical Assumptions are valid, you’re in good shape, but you’re not finished. If you’re committed to making your offer as good as it can be, you’ll need to keep making small changes that improve the offer if you want to stay competitive and attract more customers.
增量增强是使用迭代周期为现有产品添加新好处的过程。这个过程很简单：继续对核心产品进行添加和测试，继续做有用的事情，停止做没有用的事情。
Incremental Augmentation is the process of using the Iteration Cycle to add new benefits to an existing offer. The process is simple: keep making and testing additions to the core offer, continue doing what works, and stop doing what doesn’t.
定制汽车的过程是增量增强的一个例子。从一辆原车开始，调谐器更换和升级零件：更好的发动机、扰流板、有色窗户和镀铬轮毂盖。每一次改变的目的都是为了让汽车变得更好一点，直到它达到最佳状态。当汽车完成后，它是一台不同的机器。
The process of customizing cars is an example of Incremental Augmentation. Starting with a stock car, the tuner replaces and upgrades parts: a better engine, a spoiler, tinted windows, and chrome hubcaps. The intent of every change is to make the car just a little bit better, until it’s the best it can be. When the car is finished, it’s a different machine.
增量增强可帮助您改进产品，同时将任何单次迭代发生灾难性失败的风险降至最低。如果你不小心，发布后的剧烈变化会消除那些品质使您的报价具有吸引力或破坏您用来创造您为客户提供的价值的系统。通过进行更改和测试更改，您可以在不押注农场的情况下改进您的报价，从而帮助您随着时间的推移为客户创造更多价值。
Incremental Augmentation helps you improve your offering while minimizing the risk that any single iteration will fail catastrophically. If you’re not careful, drastic changes after launch can eliminate the qualities that made your offer attractive or break the systems you use to create the value you’re providing to your customers. By making and testing changes, you can improve your offer without betting the farm, helping you create even more value for your customers over time.
请记住，增量增强只能带你走这么远。为了进入新市场或改变游戏规则，您可能需要创造新事物。如果是这种情况，请从新的原型开始，并从头开始完成价值创造过程。原型准备就绪后，获取反馈并使用测试将新版本与旧版本进行比较，并确保在启动它之前更好。
Keep in mind that Incremental Augmentation can only take you so far. In order to enter a new market or change the game, you may need to create something new. If that’s the case, start over with a new Prototype and work your way through the value-creation process from the beginning. When the Prototype is ready, get Feedback and use Testing to compare the new version with the old version and make sure it’s better before you launch it.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/incremental-augmentation/
现场测试
Field Testing
任何不需要每天至少洗手三次的工程师都是失败的。
Any engineer that doesn’t need to wash his hands at least three times a day is a failure.
——丰田章一郎，丰田汽车公司前董事长
—SHOICHIRO TOYODA, FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION
一年有一百五十天，帕特里克·史密斯生活在科罗拉多州的荒野中，就像过去五十年一样。史密斯是科罗拉多户外生活学校和两家成功的狩猎/背包旅行公司的创始人：他于 1995 年出售的 Mountainsmith 和他于 1997 年创建的 Kifaru International。
A hundred and fifty days a year, Patrick Smith lives in the Colorado wilderness, just as he has for the past fifty years. Smith is the founder of the Colorado School of Outdoor Living and two successful hunting/backpacking companies: Mountainsmith, which he sold in 1995, and Kifaru International, which he created in 1997.
成为 Kifaru 客户是让您的信用卡过热的快速方法。Kifaru 可以说是世界上最好的远足和狩猎背包和避难所——坚固、轻便且设计精良。Kifaru 背包可以轻松携带 200 磅，可以使用数十年，售价数百美元。狂热的运动员和士兵花费数千美元购买定制的 Kifaru 装备，然后急切地等待公司制造六到八周的时间并不少见。尽您所能，很难找到对装备质量感到失望的 Kifaru 客户。通常情况下，新的 Kifaru 客户是终生客户。
Becoming a Kifaru customer is a quick way to overheat your credit card. Kifaru makes arguably the best hiking and hunting packs and shelters in the world—rugged, lightweight, and well designed. Kifaru packs can carry two hundred pounds comfortably, will last for decades, and sell for hundreds of dollars. It’s not uncommon for avid sportsmen and soldiers to shell out thousands of dollars for custom-made Kifaru gear, then wait eagerly for six to eight weeks while the company makes it. Try as you might, it’s difficult to find a Kifaru customer who’s disappointed in the quality of their gear. More often than not, a new Kifaru customer is a customer for life.
Kifaru 质量背后的秘密是现场测试。史密斯个人在将其提供给客户之前，创建、使用和迭代 Kifaru多年来生产的每一个产品。到成品可用时，即使是最苛刻的客户也很难发现缺陷。
The secret behind Kifaru’s quality is Field Testing. Smith personally creates, uses, and Iterates every single product Kifaru makes for years before offering it to customers. By the time the finished product is available, even the most demanding customers have a difficult time finding flaws.
以下是 Smith 对他个人现场测试方法的评价：
Here’s what Smith says about his personal approach to Field Testing:
偏远地区绝对是我的灵感来源，也是我的实验室。我已经弄清楚如何在 [现场] 进行设计。我相信这种技术。我得到关于设计的即时反馈，因为我在偏远地区做设计的目的，然后在现实世界的舞台上测试它。. . 我真的认为这是一个比坐在城里办公室的电脑前更好的设计过程。我认为这是一个双赢的局面。5个
The backcountry is definitely both my inspiration and my laboratory. I’ve figured out how to create designs out there [in the field]. I trust this technique. I get instant feedback about designs because I’m in the backcountry doing the things the design is for, and testing it right then, in the real world arena it’s intended for . . . I really do think this is a better design process than sitting in front of a computer in an office in town. I think it’s a win/win situation.5
Field Testing 在创建成功企业方面有着悠久而杰出的历史。1923 年，纽约 Protective Garment Corporation 的 WH Murphy 让一名同事在公众面前用手枪朝他的胸部开枪，以证明他的产品有效——这是一种基于广泛现场测试的营销噱头，以验证背心能够阻止实弹。哥伦比亚西装制造商米格尔·卡瓦列罗 (Miguel Caballero) 曾为巴拉克·奥巴马 (Barack Obama) 和雨果·查韦斯 (Hugo Chávez) 等国家元首制作防弹服，他延续了这一传统，发布了穿着他的西装的人被近距离射击腹部的视频。6个
Field Testing has a long and distinguished history in the creation of successful businesses. In 1923, W. H. Murphy, of the Protective Garment Corporation of New York, had an associate shoot him in the chest with a pistol in front of a public audience to prove his product worked—a marketing stunt based on extensive Field Testing to verify that the vest was capable of stopping live rounds. Miguel Caballero, a Colombian suit manufacturer who has created bulletproof suits for heads of state like Barack Obama and Hugo Chávez, has continued the tradition by posting videos of people wearing his suits being shot point-blank in the stomach.6
大多数主要汽车制造商都通过公路和越野障碍训练来设计新车，以测试真实条件下的性能和操控性。微软和谷歌等软件公司在向客户发布新产品之前，会在内部与员工进行广泛的实地测试。内部测试允许公司在客户看到产品之前消除任何错误。
Most major automotive manufacturers put new car designs through on- and off-road obstacle courses to test performance and handling in real-world conditions. Software companies like Microsoft and Google extensively Field Test their new products internally with employees before releasing them to customers. Testing internally allows the company to eliminate any bugs before customers ever see the product.
使用您每天制作的产品是提高所提供产品质量的最佳方式。没有什么比成为其最狂热和最苛刻的客户更能帮助您找到使您的报价更好的方法了。
Using what you make every day is the best way to improve the quality of what you’re offering. Nothing will help you find ways to make your offer better than being its most avid and demanding customer.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/field-testing/
2个
2
营销
MARKETING
主要的营销原罪是无聊。
The cardinal marketing sin is being boring.
—DAN KENNEDY，营销专家
—DAN KENNEDY, MARKETING EXPERT
提供价值是不够的。如果没有人知道（或关心）您必须提供什么，那么您创造了多少价值都无关紧要。没有营销，任何企业都无法生存——不知道您存在的人无法购买您提供的产品，对您提供的产品不感兴趣的人也不会成为付费客户。
Offering value is not enough. If no one knows (or cares) about what you have to offer, it doesn’t matter how much value you create. Without marketing, no business can survive—people who don’t know you exist can’t purchase what you have to offer, and people who aren’t interested in what you have to offer won’t become paying customers.
每个成功的企业都会找到一种方法来吸引合适的人的注意力，并使他们对所提供的产品感兴趣。没有前景，你就卖不出去任何东西，没有完成有利可图的交易，你的生意就会失败。
Every successful business finds a way to attract the attention of the right people and make them interested in what’s being offered. Without prospects, you won’t sell anything, and without completing profitable transactions, your business will fail.
营销是寻找“潜在客户”的艺术和科学——那些对您所提供的产品感兴趣的人。世界上最好的企业想方设法以合理的价格吸引合格潜在客户的注意。您吸引的潜在客户越多，您的业务就会越好。
Marketing is the art and science of finding “prospects”—people who are interested in what you have to offer. The best businesses in the world find ways to attract the attention of qualified prospects for a reasonable price. The more prospects you entice, the better off your business will be.
营销与销售不同。虽然直接营销策略通常会尽量缩短吸引注意力和要求销售之间的时间，但营销和销售是两件不同的事情。
Marketing is not the same thing as selling. While direct-marketing strategies often try to minimize the time between attracting attention and asking for the sale, marketing and selling are two different things.
营销就是要引起注意；我们将在第 3 章讨论的销售是关于完成交易。
Marketing is about getting noticed; sales, which we’ll discuss in chapter 3, is about closing the deal.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/marketing/
注意力
Attention
在注意力经济（如本例）中，营销人员努力争取注意力。如果你没有它，你就输了。
In an attention economy (like this one), marketers struggle for attention. If you don’t have it, you lose.
—SETH GODIN，许可营销、紫牛和部落的畅销书作者
—SETH GODIN, BESTSELLING AUTHOR OF PERMISSION MARKETING, PURPLE COW, AND TRIBES
现代生活对您的注意力要求过高。想一想现在正在争夺您注意力的所有事情：有工作要做、有人要打电话、要查看电子邮件、要看电视、要听音乐以及要访问无数网站。每个人都有太多的事情要做，而时间又太少。
Modern life is overloaded with demands on your Attention. Think of all of the things that are competing for your attention right now: there’s work to be done, people to call, email to check, TV to watch, music to listen to, and countless websites to visit. Everyone has too many things to do and too little time to do them all.
营销规则#1 是您的潜在客户的注意力是有限的。跟上你世界上的一切需要比你必须处理的更多的注意力。为了补偿，你过滤：你分配你的注意力，更多地分配给你关心的事情，更少地分配给你不关心的事情。其他人也是如此，包括您的潜在客户。要引起某人的注意，您必须找到绕过他们过滤器的方法。
Rule #1 of marketing is that your potential customer’s available attention is limited. Keeping up with everything in your world would require way more attention than you have to work with. To compensate, you filter: you ration your attention, allocating more to things you care about and less to things you don’t. So does everyone else, including your potential prospects. To get someone’s attention, you have to find a way around their filters.
必须赢得高质量的关注。当您寻求某人的注意时，花点时间记住您正在与他们世界中的其他一切竞争是很有用的。为了受到关注，您需要找到一种方法，通过比竞争者更有趣或更有用来赢得关注。
High-quality attention must be earned. When you’re seeking someone’s attention, it’s useful to take a moment to remember that you’re competing against everything else in their world. In order to be noticed, you need to find a way to earn that attention by being more interesting or useful than the competing alternatives.
如果人们不关心你在做什么，注意力就无关紧要。如果你只是在寻找关注，就不要为所有这些商业活动而烦恼：穿着粉红色的兔子套装在街上蹦蹦跳跳，大声喊叫会让你得到你想要的所有关注。然而，在业务方面，有些关注是不值得的。您需要潜在客户的注意，他们会向您购买产品——否则，您就是在浪费时间。
Attention doesn’t matter if people don’t care about what you’re doing. If all you’re looking for is attention, don’t bother with all of this business stuff: skipping down the street in a pink bunny suit while yelling at the top of your lungs will get you all the attention you’ll ever want. When it comes to business, however, some kinds of attention aren’t worth having. You want the attention of prospects who will purchase from you—otherwise, you’re wasting your time.
成为众人瞩目的焦点固然不错，但做生意是要实现盈利的销售，而不是赢得人气竞赛。出现在国家电视台或大型网站上是一件很棒的事情，但这种广泛的宣传往往无法带来实际的销售。花时间和精力表现得像个社交名流会减少你可以投入为客户创造真正价值的资源量，这对任何人都没有帮助。
It’s nice to be the center of attention, but business is about making profitable sales, not winning a popularity contest. Being featured on national television or on a huge website is a wonderful thing, but very often this kind of broad publicity fails to deliver actual sales. Spending time and energy acting like a socialite reduces the amount of resources you can devote to creating real value for your customers, which doesn’t help anyone.
赢得可能向您购买的人的注意，您将建立自己的业务。本章中的心智模型将向您展示如何做到这一点。
Earn the attention of the people who are likely to buy from you and you’ll build your business. The mental models in this chapter will show you how.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/attention/
接受度
Receptivity
适合一个人的鞋夹住另一个人；没有适合所有情况的生活秘诀。
The shoe that fits one person pinches another; there is no recipe for living that suits all cases.
——卡尔·荣格，先驱精神科医生和心理学家
—CARL JUNG, PIONEERING PSYCHIATRIST AND PSYCHOLOGIST
人们会忽略他们不关心的事情。人脑的主要功能之一是感知过滤：确定要注意什么和忽略什么。被任何人忽视的最快方法就是开始谈论他们不关心的事情。
People ignore what they don’t care about. One of the primary functions of the human brain is perceptual filtering: determining what to pay attention to and what to ignore. The fastest way to be ignored by anyone is to start talking about something they don’t care about.
接受度衡量一个人对您的信息有多开放。JK 罗琳的《哈利波特》等畅销小说系列的狂热粉丝是接受能力的典范：他们几乎对任何他们能找到的与他们的痴迷有关的东西感兴趣。从商业角度来看，这是理想的——很难提供观众不想要的东西。
Receptivity is a measure of how open a person is to your message. Rabid fans of hit novel series like J. K. Rowling’s Harry Potter books are paragons of Receptivity: they’re interested in almost anything they can find about their obsession as soon as it’s available. From a business perspective, that’s ideal—it’s difficult to offer something that this audience won’t want.
接受度有两个主要组成部分：什么和什么时候。人们倾向于在特定时间只接受特定类别的事物。我喜欢听到有趣的新商业书籍，但我从不想接听凌晨 3:00 公关打来的电话。
Receptivity has two primary components: what and when. People tend to be receptive only to certain categories of things at certain times. I love hearing about interesting new business books, but I never want to be on the receiving end of a 3:00 a.m. phone call from a publicist.
如果你想让你的信息被听到，媒体很重要。消息的形式对人们对消息中包含的信息的接受程度有很大影响。如果您的消息形式表明它是专门为他们创建的，那么您就更有可能引起潜在客户的注意。
If you want your message to be heard, the medium matters. The form of your message has a big influence on how receptive people are to the information that message contains. If the form of your message suggests that it was created just for them, you’re far more likely to get your prospect’s attention.
举个例子：几乎每个人都会忽略邮政垃圾邮件——如果它看起来是商业化的或大量生产的，那么收件人有 99% 的机会会毫不犹豫地把它扔掉。然而，改变形式，接受性也会改变：大多数人至少会打开一个手写地址的信封，因为很明显有人花了时间和精力把它寄给他们。极端地说，几乎每个人（包括忙碌的高管）会打开并查看一个大的、手写地址的隔夜联邦快递信封——它又大又贵，需要费力才能寄出。即使这样，如果内容与他们感兴趣的内容不符，您也会失去他们的注意力。
Here’s an example: Almost everyone will ignore postal junk mail—if it looks commercial or mass-produced, there’s a 99 percent chance the recipient will throw it away without a second thought. Change the form, however, and Receptivity changes as well: most people will at least open a hand-addressed envelope, since it’s clear someone spent time and effort sending it to them. Taken to an extreme, almost everyone (including busy executives) will open and look through the contents of a large, hand-addressed, overnight FedEx envelope—it’s big and expensive and requires effort to send. Even then, if the contents don’t match what they’re interested in, you’ll lose their attention.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/receptivity/
显着性
Remarkability
广告是你为平凡而付出的代价。
Advertising is the tax you pay for being unremarkable.
—GEEK SQUAD 创始人 ROBERT STEPHENS
—ROBERT STEPHENS, FOUNDER OF GEEK SQUAD
每次我去跑步，人们都会问我鞋子的事。他们问我不是因为他们时髦：他们问我是因为他们很奇怪。
Every time I go for a run, people ask me about my shoes. They don’t ask me because they’re fashionable: they ask me because they’re weird.
Vibram FiveFingers 是一款介于袜子和手套之间的鞋子。穿上它们会让你看起来有点像青蛙：每个脚趾都有自己的小口袋，让你的脚看起来有点像两栖动物——奇怪到足以引起注意。
Vibram FiveFingers are shoes that look like a cross between a sock and a glove. Wearing them makes you look a bit like a frog: each toe has its own little pocket, giving your feet a slightly amphibian look—odd enough to be noticed.
我拿起一双 FiveFingers 来尝试赤脚跑步——薄橡胶鞋底可以保护您的双脚免受岩石和玻璃的伤害，而不会增加任何不必要的支撑，让您的双脚按照设计的方式进行运动。穿着 FiveFingers 跑步或走路很有趣，这就是我一直戴着它们的原因。
I picked up a pair of FiveFingers to experiment with barefoot running—the thin rubber sole protects your feet from rocks and glass without adding any unnecessary support, which lets your feet do what they’re designed to do. Running or walking in FiveFingers is fun, which is why I keep wearing them.
FiveFingers 实在是太奇怪了，当你穿上它们时，人们会情不自禁地注意到你的脚——它们违反了人们对鞋子应该是什么样子的期望。结果，人们问我关于他们的事——即使是在像纽约市街道这样“不友好”的地方。在谈话结束时，我已经告诉我的新朋友它们是什么、我为什么要佩戴它们、它们的价格以及他们可以在哪里购买它们。
FiveFingers are just strange enough that people can’t help but notice your feet when you wear them—they violate expectations of what shoes are supposed to look like. As a result, people ask me about them—even in as “unfriendly” a place as the streets of New York City. By the end of the conversation, I’ve told my new acquaintance what they are, why I’m wearing them, how much they cost, and where they can purchase them.
FiveFingers 旨在克服每个新产品面临的头号问题：如果没有人知道你的存在，就没有人会购买你必须出售的东西。每位佩戴 FiveFingers 的顾客都会免费为 Vibram 提供他们保持增长所需的所有广告。
FiveFingers are designed to overcome the number one problem every new offering faces: if no one knows you exist, no one will buy what you have to sell. Every customer who wears a pair of FiveFingers provides Vibram all of the advertising they need to keep growing—for free.
从商业角度来看，FiveFingers 吸引注意力的设计效果非常好。在街上，销售人员证实FiveFingers 正在迅速下架——新货几乎立即售罄。据《纽约时报》报道，自 2006 年推出以来， FiveFingers系列的销售额每年增长两倍，2009 年该公司在北美的收入突破 1000 万美元大关——无需大众市场广告。对于看起来很滑稽的青蛙鞋来说还不错。
From a business perspective, the Attention-grabbing design of FiveFingers is working beautifully. On the street, salespeople confirm that FiveFingers are flying off the shelves—new stock sells out almost immediately. According to the New York Times,1 sales of the FiveFingers line have tripled every year since they were introduced in 2006, and in 2009 the company’s revenue crossed the $10 million mark in North America—without mass-market advertising. Not bad for funny-looking frog shoes.
引人注目是吸引注意力的最佳方式。在经典的营销书籍《紫牛》中，赛斯·戈丁用了一个绝妙的比喻来说明这个原则：满是棕色奶牛的田野是无聊的。一头紫色的母牛违背了观众的期望，吸引了人们的注意和兴趣。
Remarkability is the best way to attract Attention. In the classic marketing book Purple Cow, Seth Godin uses a wonderful metaphor to illustrate this principle: A field full of brown cows is boring. A purple cow violates the viewer’s expectations, which attracts Attention and interest.
如果您将报价设计得引人注目——独特到足以激起潜在客户的好奇心——那么吸引注意力会容易得多。
If you design your offer to be Remarkable—unique enough to pique your prospect’s curiosity—it’ll be significantly easier to attract attention.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/remarkability/
潜在买家
Probable Purchaser
这个星球上有 60 亿人。99.999% 的人宁愿不给你他们的钱。
There are 6 billion people on this planet. 99.999% of them would rather not give you their money.
——休·麦克劳德，漫画家和《无视所有人》的作者
—HUGH MACLEOD, CARTOONIST AND AUTHOR OF IGNORE EVERYBODY
假设世界上每个人都关心您所提供的产品是一个巨大的营销错误。您可能认为您所提供的是自切片面包以来最伟大的东西——事实上，我希望您能做到！这并不能改变它并不适合所有人的事实。无论你提供什么，我可以向你保证，这个世界上的大多数人不会——也永远不会——关心你在做什么。严厉但真实。
Assuming that everyone in the world cares about what you have to offer is a huge marketing mistake. You may think that what you have to offer is the greatest thing since sliced bread—in fact, I hope you do! That doesn’t change the fact that it’s not right for everyone. Whatever you’re offering, I can guarantee you that most of the people in this world don’t—and will never—care about what you’re doing. Harsh but true.
幸运的是，您不必为了成功而吸引所有人。你只需要吸引足够多的注意力来完成足够多的销售，从而产生足够的利润来继续下去。要做到这一点，最好集中精力吸引那些会关心你正在做的事情的人的注意力。
Fortunately, you don’t have to appeal to everyone in order to succeed. You just have to attract enough Attention to close enough sales to produce enough profit to keep going. To do that, it’s best to focus on attracting the attention of the people who will care about what you’re doing.
熟练的营销人员不会试图吸引所有人的注意力——他们专注于在正确的时间吸引正确的人的注意力。如果您要营销哈雷戴维森摩托车，试图在奥普拉温弗瑞秀上露面以炫耀今年的新车型可能不是最好的策略。同样，奥普拉的核心观众不太可能包括强硬的 穿着皮夹克、留着胡须和纹身的男人，所以不要指望她很快就会在摩托车贸易展上做广告。
Skilled marketers don’t try to get everyone’s attention—they focus on getting the attention of the right people at the right time. If you’re marketing Harley-Davidson motorcycles, trying to land an appearance on The Oprah Winfrey Show to show off this year’s new models probably isn’t the best strategy. Likewise, Oprah’s core audience is not likely to include tough guys in leather jackets with handlebar mustaches and tattoos, so don’t expect her to advertise at a motorcycle trade show any time soon.
您的潜在购买者是适合您所提供产品的那类人。哈雷最赚钱的客户是“周末勇士”——有可支配收入的中年男性，他们希望在闲暇时间四处闲逛时感到强大和危险。奥普拉的潜在购买者是中年女性，她们想要提高自己，喜欢听励志和感人的故事。
Your Probable Purchaser is the type of person who is suited to what you’re offering. Harley’s most profitable customers are “weekend warriors”—middle-aged men with disposable income who want to feel powerful and dangerous while cruising around in their spare time. Oprah’s Probable Purchasers are middle-aged women who want to improve themselves and enjoy listening to inspiring and emotional stories.
Harley 不会试图吸引 Oprah 的潜在购买者，反之亦然——他们每个人都专注于吸引特定的核心受众，效果很好。
Harley doesn’t try to appeal to Oprah’s Probable Purchasers, and vice versa—they each focus on appealing to their specific core audience, to great effect.
试图吸引所有人是浪费时间和金钱：将您的营销工作集中在您的潜在购买者身上。通过将有限的资源用于接触那些已经对您提供的产品类型感兴趣的人，您将最大限度地提高吸引注意力的活动的有效性。
Attempting to appeal to everyone is a waste of time and money: focus your marketing efforts on your Probable Purchaser. By spending your limited resources reaching out to people who are already interested in the types of things you offer, you’ll maximize the effectiveness of your attention-grabbing activities.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/probable-purchaser/
全神贯注
Preoccupation
如果您意识到别人很少这样做，您就不会太担心别人对您的看法。
You wouldn’t worry so much about what others think of you if you realized how seldom they do.
——埃莉诺·罗斯福，美国前第一夫人
—ELEANOR ROOSEVELT, FORMER FIRST LADY OF THE UNITED STATES
为了赢得潜在客户的注意，您必须将他们的注意力从他们已经在做的事情上转移开。这不是一件容易的事。
In order to earn the Attention of a prospect, you must divert their attention from what they’re already doing. That’s not an easy task.
全神贯注是现代营销人员生活中的一个事实：在营销过程的开始，您的潜在客户正在关注其他事物，而不是您。为了吸引对您的报价的注意，您正在做的事情必须比您的潜在客户当前关注的主题更有趣。
Preoccupation is a fact of life for modern marketers: at the beginning of the marketing process, your prospects are paying attention to something else, not you. In order to attract Attention to your offer, what you’re doing must be more interesting than your prospect’s current subject of attention.
打破潜在潜在客户的专注的最好方法是激发一种好奇、惊讶或担忧的感觉。我们古老的大脑密切关注机会和威胁，扫描环境以寻找可能帮助或伤害我们的新刺激。
The best way to break a potential prospect’s Preoccupation is to provoke a feeling of curiosity, surprise, or concern. Our ancient brains pay close attention to opportunities and threats, scanning the environment for new stimuli that could help or harm us.
刺激越强烈、越具有情感吸引力，就越容易引起注意。营销人员使用令人回味的图像、文字和声音是有原因的：我们的大脑会停止我们正在做的事情来评估它们。
The stronger and more emotionally compelling the stimuli, the easier it is to attract Attention. There’s a reason marketers use evocative imagery, words, and sounds: our brains are wired to stop what we’re doing to evaluate them.
这并不是说您的营销需要花哨和响亮：有数以千计的微妙方法可以同样有效地吸引注意力。根据潜在客户的环境或情绪状态，您需要产生的兴趣门槛可能很低。如果潜在客户感到无聊、焦躁不安，或者正在寻找娱乐或消遣，就更容易吸引他们的注意力。
That’s not to say that your marketing needs to be garish and loud: there are thousands of subtle ways to attract Attention that can work just as well. Depending on the prospect’s environment or emotional state, the threshold of interest you need to generate may be low. If the prospect is bored, restless, or looking for entertainment or distraction, it’ll be easier to attract their Attention.
假设您的潜在客户是从全神贯注的状态开始的，这总是值得的。以打破他们的注意力并赢得他们的注意力的方式开始您的营销方法。
It always pays to assume your prospects begin in a state of Preoccupation. Begin your marketing approach in a way that breaks their Preoccupation and earns their Attention.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/preoccupation/
意识水平
Levels of Awareness
承诺——大承诺——是广告的灵魂。
Promise—large promise—is the soul of an advertisement.
——塞缪尔·约翰逊，十八世纪的散文家和词典编纂者
—SAMUEL JOHNSON, EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY ESSAYIST AND LEXICOGRAPHER
最好的营销满足潜在客户的需求，而不是你希望他们所在的位置。如果你想以产生结果的方式吸引注意力，你需要对你的潜在购买者了解和关心你所提供的产品的程度保持敏感。
The best marketing meets the prospect where they are, not where you want them to be. If you want to attract Attention in a way that produces results, you need to be sensitive to how much your Probable Purchasers know and care about what you have to offer.
在Breakthrough Advertising中，Eugene Schwartz 建议潜在客户在营销和销售过程中经历五个不同的意识水平：
In Breakthrough Advertising, Eugene Schwartz suggests that prospects experience five distinct Levels of Awareness during the marketing and sales process:
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不知道——潜在客户不知道对你提供的产品有任何需求或渴望。
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Unaware—the prospect is not aware of any need or desire for what you have to offer.
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问题意识——潜在客户知道他们有需求或愿望，但他们不知道任何合适的解决方案。
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Problem Awareness—the prospect knows they have a need or desire, but they aren’t aware of any suitable solutions.
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解决方案意识——潜在客户知道存在潜在的解决方案，但他们不知道您的具体报价。
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Solution Awareness—the prospect knows that potential solutions exist, but they aren’t aware of your specific offer.
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报价意识——潜在客户知道你的报价，但他们不确定这是否适合他们。
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Offer Awareness—the prospect is aware of your offer, but they’re not sure it’s right for them.
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充分了解——潜在客户确信您的报价可以很好地满足他们的需求或愿望，他们只需要知道价格和条款即可决定是否购买。
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Full Awareness—the prospect is convinced your offer is a good solution to their need or desire, they just need to know the price and terms so they can decide whether or not to purchase.
您吸引注意力的方法取决于您的潜在客户当前的认知水平，而您与每个营销联系人的目标是随着时间的推移将潜在客户提升到更高的认知水平。
Your approach to attracting Attention depends on your prospect’s current Level of Awareness, and your objective with each marketing contact is to move the prospect to a higher Level of Awareness over time.
如果您的潜在客户不知道您的报价有任何需求或愿望，则潜在客户将不会接受有关好处或价格的信息——对他们而言，您的营销是无关紧要的噪音。同样，过于关注问题或解决方案的好处的营销会让处于完全意识阶段的潜在客户感到厌烦：他们已经准备好做出决定，所以切入正题是最佳策略. 针对特定意识水平的潜在客户可以更轻松地创建引人注目的消息。
If your prospect is not aware of any need or desire for your offer, the prospect won’t be Receptive to information about the benefits or price—as far as they’re concerned, your marketing is irrelevant noise. In the same way, marketing that focuses too much on the problem or the benefits of your solution is annoying to prospects who are at the full-awareness stage: they’re ready to make a decision, so cutting to the chase is the optimal strategy. Targeting potential customers at specific Levels of Awareness makes it easier to create a compelling message.
这种方法延伸到销售过程中。基于教育的销售帮助潜在客户理解为什么购买最符合他们的利益，以及他们如何从交易中获益。
This approach extends into the sales process. Education-Based Selling helps the prospect understand why purchasing is in their best interest and how they can derive benefits from the Transaction.
意识水平创造了许多营销人员所说的“漏斗”。您最初的营销努力创造了报价的知名度，但大多数最初的潜在客户由于各种原因不会购买。当潜在客户经历不同的认知水平时，他们更有可能从您的营销转移到您的销售流程，从而导致最终购买。
Levels of Awareness create what many marketers refer to as a “funnel.” Your initial marketing efforts create awareness of the offer, but most initial prospects won’t purchase for various reasons. As prospects move through the various Levels of Awareness, they’re more likely to move from your marketing to your sales process, resulting in an eventual purchase.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/levels-of-awareness/
最终结果
End Result
没有人想要演习。他们想要的是洞。
No one wants a drill. What they want is the hole.
—LE “DOC”' HOBBS，曼哈顿互助人寿保险公司的广告，1946 年
—L. E. “DOC”‘ HOBBS, ADVERTISEMENT FOR THE MANHATTAN MUTUAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY, 1946
大多数寻求商业机会的人对经营企业的日常细节和职责不感兴趣。他们购买商业书籍和课程，因为他们想要体验更加繁荣、丰富和充满希望的未来。
Most business-opportunity seekers aren’t interested in the day-to-day details and responsibilities of running a business. They buy business books and courses because they want to experience a more prosperous, abundant, and hopeful future.
大多数司机不会购买昂贵的、具有越野能力的车辆，因为他们在路上行驶。他们购买它们是因为越野能力让他们感到冒险和大胆，能够应对任何驾驶挑战。
Most drivers don’t buy expensive, off-road-capable vehicles because they drive off the road. They buy them because off-road capability makes them feel adventurous and bold, capable of meeting any driving challenge.
大多数女性不会仅仅因为颜色而购买一管 20 美元的口红。他们购买它是因为他们相信它会让他们变得更美丽、更令人向往。
Most women don’t buy a $20 tube of lipstick for its color alone. They buy it because they believe it will make them more beautiful and desirable.
大多数大学生不会为了上一堂课而向哈佛、斯坦福或耶鲁支付数十万美元。他们去（或者更确切地说，他们的父母送他们去）是因为他们相信他们毕业后会被认为是老练、聪明和强大的。
Most college students don’t pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to Harvard or Stanford or Yale just to sit in a class. They go (or, rather, their parents send them) because they believe they’ll be perceived as sophisticated, intelligent, and powerful after they graduate.
当市场营销专注于期望的最终结果时，它是最有效的，这通常是与核心人类驱动力相关的独特体验或情感。购买的实际功能很重要，但最终结果才是潜在客户最感兴趣的。
Marketing is most effective when it focuses on the desired End Result, which is usually a distinctive experience or emotion related to a Core Human Drive. The actual function of the purchase is important, but the End Result is what the prospect is most interested in hearing about.
专注于功能通常要舒服得多：您知道您的报价是做什么的。即便如此，关注收益要有效得多：您的产品将为客户提供什么。
It’s often far more comfortable to focus on the features: you know what your offer does. Even so, it’s far more effective to focus on the benefits: what your offer will provide to customers.
最终结果是最重要的。通过关注最终结果，您正在关注什么会导致您的潜在客户得出结论，“这是给我的。”
The End Result is what matters most. By focusing on the End Result, you’re homing in on what will cause your prospect to conclude, “This is for me.”
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/end-result/
示范
Demonstration
真相一般人看得见，听得见的少。
The truth is generally seen, seldom heard.
—BALTASAR GRACIÁN，十七世纪的西班牙哲学家
—BALTASAR GRACIÁN, SEVENTEENTH-CENTURY SPANISH PHILOSOPHER
营销人员经常试图解释他们提供的产品的好处，但实际展示产品会更有效。演示通过向潜在客户展示它的效果如何来增加他们对你的报价的好处的信心。
Marketers often try to explain the benefits of their offers, but it’s more effective to show the product in action. Demonstration increases a prospect’s belief in the benefits of your offer by showing them how well it works.
演示是最古老、最有效的营销技巧之一。几个世纪以来，它一直被用来改变公众舆论。布鲁克林大桥于 1883 年开放，但行人并不信任它的结构——它是当时世界上最长的悬索桥，也是第一座横跨东河的桥梁。早期用户很紧张。
Demonstration is one of the oldest and most effective marketing techniques; it’s been used to change public opinion for centuries. The Brooklyn Bridge opened in 1883, but pedestrians didn’t trust the structure—it was the longest suspension bridge in the world at the time, and the first bridge that crossed the East River. Early users were nervous.
布鲁克林大桥向公众开放六天后，一位女士在通向桥的楼梯上滑倒了。骚动引起了大规模的恐慌，行人相当于去剧院的人冲向出口躲避火灾。踩踏事件导致 12 人死亡，7 人重伤，28 人受伤。2个
Six days after the Brooklyn Bridge opened to the public, a woman slipped on the stairs that led up to the bridge. The commotion caused a mass panic, the pedestrian equivalent of theatergoers rushing to the exits to escape a fire. Twelve people died, seven sustained life-threatening injuries, and twenty-eight were wounded in the stampede.2
在这场公关危机之后，该市允许著名的马戏团表演者 PT Barnum 带领 21 头大象和 17 头骆驼过桥。大桥没有动摇，公众的信心也恢复了：如果布鲁克林大桥能够容纳 20 头重达 5 吨的大象，它就能应对行人交通。3个
Following this public-relations crisis, the city allowed P. T. Barnum, the famed circus showman, to parade twenty-one elephants and seventeen camels across the bridge. The bridge didn’t waver, and public confidence was restored: if the Brooklyn Bridge could accommodate a score of five-ton elephants, it could handle pedestrian traffic.3
20 世纪许多最赚钱的企业都是使用示范作为主要营销策略建立起来的。想想电视广告的黄金时代：Billy Mays 通过直接响应电视广告销售了超过 10 亿美元的家居产品，如 OxiClean、Mighty Putty、Orange Glo 和 Kaboom。4比利过度的热情有效地克服了观众的先入为主和自然而然地改变频道的冲动，但看着比利将脏兮兮的地板或脏兮兮的衬衫恢复到原来的光彩，收银机响了起来。观众不必相信比利所说的产品性能如何：他们可以自己看到结果。
Many of the most profitable businesses of the twentieth century were built using Demonstration as the primary marketing strategy. Consider the golden age of infomercials: Billy Mays sold more than $1 billion dollars of home products like OxiClean, Mighty Putty, Orange Glo, and Kaboom via direct-response television advertisements.4 Billy’s over-the-top enthusiasm was effective in overcoming the viewer’s Preoccupation and natural impulse to change the channel, but watching Billy restore a grimy floor or a stained shirt to its original glory made the cash registers ring. Viewers didn’t have to take Billy’s word for how well the product performed: they could see the results for themselves.
演示可以在建立对您的报价帮助潜在客户的能力的信心方面大有帮助。只要有可能，不要告诉您的潜在客户您可以做些什么来帮助他们：向他们展示。
Demonstration can go a long way in establishing belief in your offer’s ability to help the prospect. Whenever possible, don’t tell your prospects what you can do to help: show them.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/demonstration/
资质
Qualification
没有广告就卖不出去的产品，有了广告就卖不出去。
The product that will not sell without advertising will not sell profitably with advertising.
—艾伯特·拉斯克，LORD & THOMAS 前首席执行官和现代广告先驱
—ALBERT LASKER, FORMER CEO OF LORD & THOMAS AND PIONEER OF MODERN ADVERTISING
信不信由你，拒绝付费客户通常是明智的。并非每个客户都是好客户：需要更多时间、精力、注意力或风险的客户一开始就不值得吸引。
Believe it or not, it’s often wise to turn away paying customers. Not every customer is a good customer: customers who require more time, energy, attention, or risk than they’re worth to your bottom line aren’t worth attracting in the first place.
资格是在潜在客户向您购买之前确定他们是否是好客户的过程。通过在潜在客户购买前对其进行评估，您可以最大限度地减少浪费时间与不适合您业务的客户打交道的可能性。
Qualification is the process of determining whether or not a prospect is a good customer before they purchase from you. By evaluating a prospect before they buy, you can minimize the chance of wasting your time dealing with a customer who’s not a good fit for your business.
Progressive Insurance 已将资格认证转变为有利可图的商业战略。要查看 Qualification 的实际应用，请访问 Progressive Insurance 网站5并索取汽车保险报价。
Progressive Insurance has turned Qualification into a profitable business strategy. To see Qualification in action, go to the Progressive Insurance website5 and request a quote for car insurance.
当您要求报价时，Progressive 会问您一组基本问题：
When you request a quote, Progressive asks you a set of basic questions:
-
你有什么类型的车？
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What type of car do you have?
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你拥有还是租用它？如果你拥有它，你还在付款吗？
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Do you own or lease it? If you own it, are you still making payments?
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你的邮政编码是多少？
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What’s your ZIP code?
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你结婚了么？
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Are you married?
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你上过大学吗？
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Did you go to college?
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在过去的五年中，您是否发生过任何过失事故？
-
Have you had any at-fault accidents in the past five years?
Progressive 然后使用您的答案从一系列数据库中收集数据来回答两个问题：
Progressive then uses your answers to gather data from a series of databases to answer two questions:
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您是 Progressive 想要投保的那种人吗？
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Are you the type of person Progressive wants to insure?
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如果是这样，他们应该向您收取多少保险费用？
-
If so, how much should they charge to insure you?
如果您是 Progressive 希望成为客户的那种人，他们会给您报价并鼓励您购买保险单。如果您不是，Progressive 会告诉您您可以在别处获得更优惠的价格，并鼓励您从他们的竞争对手之一购买保险。
If you’re the type of person Progressive wants as a customer, they’ll quote you a price and encourage you to purchase an insurance policy. If you’re not, Progressive will tell you that you can get a better price elsewhere and encourage you to purchase insurance from one of their competitors.
为什么企业会鼓励热门潜在客户从竞争中购买？您还记得我们之前对保险的讨论，保险公司的盈利能力取决于尽可能多地收取保费，同时尽可能少地支付理赔款。
Why in the world would a business encourage a hot prospect to purchase from the competition? As you recall from our previous discussion of Insurance, the profitability of an insurer depends on collecting as much money as possible in premiums while paying out as little money as possible in claims.
Progressive 不想最大化其总客户群：它只想为可能安全驾驶且很少发生事故的人提供保险，这意味着吸引那些愿意长期支付保费而不提出索赔的客户。资格允许 Progressive 最大化它为大量高利润客户提供保险，同时将“不良风险”转移给竞争对手。这对客户也有好处——如果他们是“好风险”，他们的汽车保险费率就会降低。
Progressive doesn’t want to maximize its total client base: it wants to insure only people who are likely to drive safely and have few accidents, which means attracting customers who will pay premiums for a long time without making claims. Qualification allows Progressive to maximize the number of highly profitable customers it insures while funneling the “bad risks” to its competitors. It’s good for customers as well—if they’re “good risks,” they get lower rates on their car insurance.
筛选客户可以帮助您在不良客户与您开展业务之前将其过滤掉。你对理想客户的定义越好，你就越能筛选出不符合该描述的潜在客户，你就越能专注于为你最好的客户提供服务。
Screening your customers can help you filter out the bad customers before they do business with you. The better you define your ideal customer, the better you can screen out the prospects who don’t fit that description and the more you’ll be able to focus on serving your best customers well.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/qualification/
市场进入点
Point of Market Entry
没有什么比冷漠的柔软更难了。
There is nothing harder than the softness of indifference.
——胡安·蒙塔尔沃，散文家
—JUAN MONTALVO, ESSAYIST
假设您没有小孩，也不希望很快要孩子，那么您可能不会关心尿布、婴儿车、婴儿床、婴儿玩具、日托或当地的学前班。你接触到的关于这些事情的任何信息都可能被你的大脑过滤掉，因为它与你目前的生活无关。
Assuming you don’t have a small child and aren’t expecting one any time soon, you probably don’t care about diapers, strollers, cribs, infant toys, day care, or local preschools. Any information you’re exposed to about these things is likely to be filtered out by your brain, since it’s not relevant to your life at the moment.
但是，一旦您期待生活中会出现一点点快乐，您就会突然非常关心这些事情，并且可能会开始搜索有关它们的信息。在听到这个消息之前，你没有理由在意；你现在做。
But once you’re expecting a little bundle of joy to enter your life, you suddenly care a great deal about these things and will probably start searching for information about them. Before hearing the news, you had no reason to care; now you do.
某些市场有明显的进入点和退出点。Learning a newborn is on the way 是市场进入点的一个例子。一旦知道自己怀孕了，您就会突然更容易接受有关可帮助您照顾孩子的产品和服务的信息。试图吸引那些不关心你所做的事情的人的注意力是浪费时间、金钱和精力，所以最好在你伸出手之前找出人们何时对你的消息感兴趣。
Certain markets have obvious entry and exit points. Learning a newborn is on the way is an example of a Point of Market Entry. Once you know you’re expecting, you’re suddenly much more receptive to information about products and services that will help you take care of a child. Attempting to attract the Attention of people who don’t care about what you do is a waste of time, money, and energy, so it’s best to find out when people are interested in hearing from you before you reach out.
在潜在购买者到达市场进入点后立即吸引他们的注意力是很有价值的。像宝洁、金佰利、强生和费雪这样的公司非常关注市场进入点，因为它们拥有巨大的对每个婴儿产品相关营销活动的有效性的影响。新手妈妈和爸爸从医院带回家时会收到来自这些公司中的一家或多家的免费“护理包”，其中包含尿布、尿布疹软膏、配方奶粉和其他新生儿护理基础知识的样品，这种情况并不少见。
Attracting your Probable Purchaser’s Attention just after they’ve reached the Point of Market Entry is valuable. Companies like Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark, Johnson & Johnson, and Fisher-Price pay an enormous amount of attention to Points of Market Entry, since they have a huge impact on the effectiveness of every baby product–related marketing activity. It’s not uncommon for new moms and dads to come home from the hospital with a complimentary “care package” from one or more of these companies containing samples of diapers, diaper rash ointment, formula, and other newborn-care basics.
如果您能在潜在客户对您提供的产品感兴趣时立即引起他们的注意，您就会成为评估竞争产品的标准。这是一个强大的位置，可以增加潜在客户向您购买的可能性。
If you can get a prospective customer’s attention as soon as they become interested in what you’re offering, you become the standard by which competing offers are evaluated. That’s a powerful position that increases the likelihood the prospect will purchase from you.
发现潜在购买者在超过兴趣阈值后从哪里开始寻找信息是很有价值的。在互联网出现之前，大多数准父母开始如饥似渴地阅读书籍，并与更有经验的家人和朋友交谈。今天，新晋妈妈和爸爸首先搜索网络，这就是有机和付费搜索引擎营销通常如此有价值的原因。通过针对您的潜在客户可能搜索的关键字进行优化，您可以确保他们首先找到您。
Discovering where Probable Purchasers start looking for information after crossing the interest threshold is valuable. Before the advent of the internet, most expecting parents started devouring books and talking to more experienced family and friends. Today, newly minted moms and dads search the web first, which is why organic and paid search-engine marketing is often so valuable. By optimizing for keywords your prospective customers are likely to search for, you can ensure that they find you first.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/point-of-market-entry/
可寻址性
Addressability
有时人迹罕至的路之所以人迹罕至是有原因的。
Sometimes the road less traveled is less traveled for a reason.
——杰瑞宋飞，喜剧演员
—JERRY SEINFELD, COMEDIAN
我在俄亥俄州的农村长大，靠近几个阿米什人社区。与流行的看法相反，阿米什人并不拒绝每一种现代技术：他们决定是否允许一项技术是基于它是否加强或削弱了他们当地的社区。6气动和蒸汽系统很常见，许多阿米什制造企业使用复杂的电动工具。即便如此，这并没有使他们成为销售人员的主要目标：进行销售需要拜访当地社区的每个潜在客户，亲自进行销售，并愿意为农村环境中的客户提供服务和支持。单次销售需要大量工作，因此大多数营销人员和销售人员不会费心。
I grew up in rural Ohio, close to several Amish communities. Contrary to popular belief, the Amish don’t reject every modern technology: they decide whether or not a technology is permitted based on whether it strengthens or weakens their local community.6 Pneumatic and steam systems are common, and many Amish manufacturing businesses use sophisticated power tools. Even so, that doesn’t make them a prime target for salespeople: making the sale requires visiting each prospect in their local community, making the sale in person, and being willing to deliver to and support customers in rural environments. That’s a lot of work for a single sale, so most marketers and salespeople don’t bother.
可寻址性衡量与可能需要您所提供产品的人取得联系的难易程度。高度可寻址的受众可以以很少的努力和成本达到。非可寻址的受众只有在极度困难的情况下才能接触到，或者不接受并且根本不想接触到。
Addressability is a measure of how easy it is to get in touch with people who might want what you’re offering. A highly Addressable audience can be reached with little effort and cost. A non-Addressable audience can be reached only with extreme difficulty or isn’t Receptive and doesn’t want to be reached at all.
瑜伽是高度可寻址市场的一个很好的例子。找到人们已经在关注瑜伽相关信息的地方相对容易：工作室、瑜伽杂志等流行杂志、会议、网站等。瑜伽是一个价值 160 亿美元的产业，您可以利用这些渠道中的一部分或全部帮助瑜伽士和瑜伽士更多地了解您所提供的服务。
Yoga is a good example of a highly Addressable market. It’s relatively easy to find places where people are already paying attention to yoga-related information: studios, popular magazines like Yoga Journal, conferences, websites, etc. Yoga is a $16 billion industry, and you can tap into some or all of these outlets to help yogis and yoginis learn more about what you have to offer.
敏感或令人尴尬的话题往往具有较低的可寻址性，即使有巨大的需求。慢性疾病就是一个很好的例子：很难找到并接触到一大群患有牛皮癣或溃疡性结肠炎等不舒服且可能令人尴尬的疾病的人。患有这些疾病的人不会聚集在同一个地方或阅读相同的东西，而且许多人会通过加入组织来避免被公开认定为患者，因此很难找到他们并与他们交谈。
Sensitive or embarrassing topics tend to have low Addressability, even if there’s a huge need. Chronic medical conditions are a good example: it’s difficult to find and reach a large group of people who suffer from an uncomfortable and potentially embarrassing condition like psoriasis or ulcerative colitis. People suffering from these conditions don’t gather in the same place or read the same things, and many will avoid being publicly identified as sufferers by joining organizations, so it’s hard to find and talk to them.
另一方面，医生更容易寻址：他们有公开列出的地址和电话号码，并且愿意并且能够就新产品与制药公司代表会面。由于每个医生都会看很多病人并充当处方药的看门人，因此制药公司花费大量时间和金钱向医学博士进行营销。
Doctors, on the other hand, are more Addressable: they have publicly listed addresses and phone numbers, and are willing and able to meet with drug company representatives about new offerings. Since each doctor sees many patients and acts as a gatekeeper for prescription medications, pharmaceutical companies spend so much time and money marketing to MDs.
互联网提高了大多数市场的可寻址性。患有敏感疾病的人极有可能在互联网上搜索信息，通过广告可以找到他们。博客、讨论区和 WebMD 等数据库让互不相识的人更容易分享他们的经验和知识，使这些低可寻址性市场比以往任何时候都更容易进入。
The internet has improved the Addressability of most markets. People who have a sensitive medical condition are highly likely to search for information on the internet, where they are Addressable via advertising. Blogs, discussion boards, and databases like WebMD make it easier for people who don’t know one another to share their experiences and knowledge, making these low-Addressability markets more accessible than ever before.
当您开发新产品时，可寻址性是一个巨大的问题。如果您有选择，最好专注于为可寻址的受众构建一些东西，而不是四处走动并手工销售或尝试向不可寻址或不想被寻址的受众致意。
Addressability is a huge concern when you are developing a new offer. If you have a choice, it’s far better to focus on building something for an Addressable audience than it is to go around and hand sell or try to address an audience that is not Addressable or doesn’t want to be addressed.
如果您在承诺要约之前选择服务于可寻址市场，那么在不破坏资金的情况下推销您的要约会容易得多。
If you choose to serve an Addressable market before committing to an offer, it’ll be significantly easier to market your offer without breaking the bank.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/addressability/
欲望
Desire
但我真的想要它！
BUT I REALLY WANT IT!!!
——到处都是两岁的孩子
—TWO-YEAR-OLD CHILDREN EVERYWHERE
有效的营销使您的潜在客户想要您所提供的。为了让潜在客户愿意为您提供的产品支付高价，他们必须想要您拥有的产品。如果您的营销活动没有在您的潜在客户中产生某种发自内心的渴望感，那么您就是在浪费时间和金钱。
Effective marketing makes your prospect want what you have to offer. In order for a prospect to be willing to pay you good money for what you’re offering, they must want what you have. If your marketing activities don’t produce some visceral feeling of Desire in your prospects, you’re wasting your time and money.
激起欲望是营销中让大多数人感到不舒服的部分。这是可以理解的：流行文化迷恋营销人员作为阴暗的操纵大师的形象，催眠大众想要他们不想要或不需要的东西。没有东西会离事实很远。
Provoking Desire is the part of marketing that makes most people uncomfortable. It’s understandable: pop culture is enamored with the image of the marketer as a shadowy master manipulator, hypnotizing the masses into wanting things they don’t want or need. Nothing could be further from the truth.
现实是这样的：让某人想要他们并不想要的东西几乎是不可能的。是的，如果您歪曲您所提供的内容或承诺您无法提供的内容，则可能是欺诈和操纵的。不要将其误认为是洗脑：浪费数百万美元广告预算的最快方法是试图强迫人们想要他们并不想要的东西。人类的思维方式并非如此——我们只会购买我们在某种程度上已经想要的东西。
Here’s the reality: it’s almost impossible to make someone want something they don’t already desire. Yes, it’s possible to be scammy and manipulative if you misrepresent what you’re offering or promise something you can’t deliver. Don’t mistake that for brainwashing: the quickest way to waste a multimillion-dollar advertising budget is to try to force people to want something they don’t already want. The human mind doesn’t work that way—we only purchase what we already desire on some level.
有效营销的本质是发现人们已经想要的东西，然后以一种与预先存在的愿望相交的方式展示你的产品。最好的营销类似于基于教育的销售：它向潜在客户展示产品如何帮助他们实现他们的愿望。作为营销人员，您的工作不是说服人们想要您提供的产品，而是说服人们购买您提供的产品。这是为了帮助您的潜在客户说服自己，您所提供的产品将帮助他们获得所需的东西。
The essence of effective marketing is discovering what people already want, then presenting your offer in a way that intersects with that preexisting Desire. The best marketing is similar to Education-Based Selling: it shows the prospect how the offer will help them achieve what they desire. Your job as a marketer isn’t to convince people to want what you’re offering; it’s to help your prospects convince themselves that what you’re offering will help them get what they want.
那么人们想要什么？我们已经介绍过：核心人类驱动力是一个起点，可以帮助您在最基本的层面上发现您的市场需求。与您的产品连接的驱动力越多，您的营销活动就越有效。
So what do people want? We’ve already covered that: the Core Human Drives are a starting point that will help you discover what your market wants at the most basic level. The more drives you can connect with your offering, the more effective your marketing activities will be.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/desire/
可视化
Visualization
当您的工作不言而喻时，请不要打扰。
When your work speaks for itself, don’t interrupt.
—HENRY J. KAISER，现代造船业的先驱和 KAISER PERMANENTE 的创始人
—HENRY J. KAISER, PIONEER OF MODERN SHIPBUILDING AND FOUNDER OF KAISER PERMANENTE
一旦您踏上汽车经销店的停车场，与您共事的销售人员就会有一个明确的目标：说服您驾驶车辆进行试驾。
As soon as you step onto the lot of a car dealership, the salesperson you work with has a single, clear objective: convince you to get behind the wheel of a vehicle for a test drive.
试驾用于在世界各地销售汽车有一个很好的理由：它有效。试驾是销售人员说服您当天购买汽车的最有效工具。
The test drive is used to sell cars all over the world for a very good reason: it works. The test drive is the most effective tool a salesperson has to convince you to purchase a car that day.
在你开车之前，以超然的方式对待潜在的购买要容易得多。您能够理性地比较品牌和型号、功能和价格。您可以说服自己“只是看看”，还没有购买任何东西的打算。
Until you’re driving a car, it’s much easier to treat a potential purchase in a detached way. You’re capable of rationally comparing makes and models, features, and prices. You can convince yourself that you’re “just looking,” with no intention of purchasing anything just yet.
然而，一旦你坐在汽车的方向盘后面，你头脑中的情感部分就会占据主导地位。您开始想象如果您拥有这辆车，您的生活会是什么样子。您无需冷静地比较马力和加速度指标，而是可以感受到发动机的动力和操控的便利性，并且可以想象当您将迷人的新车开到车道上时邻居的尊重（或羡慕）。
Once you’re behind the wheel of a car, however, the emotional parts of your mind take control. You start to imagine what your life would be like if you owned this vehicle. Instead of dispassionately comparing horsepower and acceleration metrics, you can feel the power of the engine and the ease of handling, and you can imagine the respect (or envy) of your neighbors as you pull your attractive new vehicle into the driveway.
你已经停止比较并开始想要。一旦您开始想要，您可能就会购买——这只是时间问题。
You’ve stopped comparing and started wanting. Once you start wanting, you’ll probably buy—it’s only a matter of time.
B&H Photo Video 在不同的市场使用相同的策略。在曼哈顿超市的过道中漫游是一种强烈的感官体验。您可以感受到您正在考虑的相机的重量，近距离看到按钮和拨盘，并听到快门的咔嗒声。更好的是，您可以将每台摄像机的感觉与数百台其他摄像机的感觉进行比较，一切都在触手可及的范围内。难怪 B&H 是世界上最成功的摄影零售商之一——在试驾了几台相机后，很难抑制把一台带回家的冲动。
B&H Photo Video uses the same strategy in a different market. Roaming the aisles of their Manhattan superstore is an intense sensory experience. You can feel the weight of the camera you’re considering, see the buttons and dials up close, and hear the snap of the shutter. Better yet, you can compare the feel of each camera to hundreds of others, all within arm’s reach. It’s little wonder B&H is one of the most successful photography retailers in the world—after test-driving a few cameras, it’s difficult to resist the urge to take one home.
让人们想要一些东西的最有效方法是鼓励他们使用可视化——想象如果他们接受你的提议，他们的生活会是什么样子。正如我们稍后将讨论的那样，在心理模拟中，我们的思维旨在想象我们行为的后果。你可以用这个通过帮助您的潜在客户想象他们将拥有的积极体验，自然倾向于您的优势。
The most effective way to get people to want something is to encourage them to use Visualization—to picture what their life would be like if they accepted your offer. As we’ll discuss later, in Mental Simulation, our minds are designed to imagine the consequences of our actions. You can use this natural tendency to your advantage by helping your prospects imagine the positive experiences they’ll have.
如果您鼓励您的潜在客户想象购买后他们的生活会是什么样子，您就会增加他们向您购买的可能性。帮助客户形象化的最佳方法是让他们接触尽可能多的感官信息——他们的大脑使用这些信息得出结论，“我想要这个。”
If you encourage your prospects to Visualize what their life will look like after purchasing, you increase the probability that they’ll purchase from you. The best way to help your customers Visualize is to expose them to as much sensory information as possible—the information their mind uses to conclude, “I want this.”
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/visualization/
取景
Framing
我们听到的一切都是意见，而不是事实。我们所看到的一切都是一种观点，而不是事实。
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.
——马尔库斯·奥勒留，哲学家和罗马皇帝，公元前二世纪
—MARCUS AURELIUS, PHILOSOPHER AND EMPEROR OF ROME, SECOND CENTURY BCE
在心理学家阿莫斯·特沃斯基 (Amos Tversky) 和丹尼尔·卡尼曼 (Daniel Kahneman) 进行的一项著名实验中，参与者被要求决定对 600 名患病人群进行治疗。研究的参与者有两个选择：治疗 A 可以挽救 200 条生命。治疗 B 有 33% 的机会拯救所有 600 人，有 66% 的可能性没有拯救任何人。
In a famous experiment conducted by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, participants were asked to make a decision about administering medical treatment to a sick population of six hundred people. Participants in the study were given two options: Treatment A would save two hundred lives. Treatment B had a 33 percent chance of saving all six hundred people and a 66 percent possibility of saving no one.
治疗 A 和治疗 B 在数学上是相同的——当你计算时，预期结果没有差异。然而，研究结果揭示了一种明显的心理偏好：72% 的参与者选择了治疗 A，而 28% 的参与者选择了治疗 B。
Treatment A and Treatment B are mathematically identical—when you do the math, there’s no difference in the expected outcome. The study results, however, revealed a clear psychological preference: 72 percent of participants chose Treatment A, while 28 percent of the participants chose Treatment B.
然后用两种不同的治疗方案重复该实验。治疗 C 将导致四百人死亡。治疗 D 提供了 33% 的可能性没有人会死，但有 66% 的可能性所有 600 人都会死。参与者绝大多数更喜欢治疗 D，78% 对 22%。
The experiment was then repeated with two different treatment options. Treatment C would result in four hundred deaths. Treatment D offered a 33 percent chance that no one would die but a 66 percent probability that all six hundred would die. Participants overwhelmingly preferred Treatment D, 78 percent to 22 percent.
有趣的是，治疗 A 和 C 在统计上也相同，但 A 是压倒性的首选，而 C 不是。考虑挽救的生命与死亡人数显着改变了偏好的人做出决定，即使预期的结果是相同的。我们将在损失厌恶中探讨这种偏好的原因之一，但现在，让我们关注各种消息的强调如何改变结果。
What’s interesting to note is that Treatments A and C are also statistically identical, but A was overwhelmingly preferred while C was not. Contemplating lives saved versus fatalities significantly altered the preferences of the people making decisions, even though the expected outcomes were the same. We’ll explore one of the reasons for this preference in Loss Aversion, but for now, let’s focus on how the emphasis of the various messages changed the results.
框架是强调重要细节的行为，同时通过最小化某些事实或完全忽略它们来弱化不重要的事情。正确使用 Framing 可以帮助您有说服力地展示您的报价，同时尊重客户的时间和注意力。
Framing is the act of emphasizing the details that are important while de-emphasizing things that aren’t by either minimizing certain facts or leaving them out entirely. Proper use of Framing can help you present your offer persuasively while honoring your customer’s time and attention.
框架是沟通的自然组成部分；任何消息中的某种形式的压缩都是不可避免的。在与他人交流时，包含所有事实和背景是不切实际的——我们强调一些细节而忽略其他细节以节省时间。我们构图是因为我们必须这样做：否则，即使是最简单的信息也将花费大量时间与其他人交流。订购比萨饼需要两个小时，因为您不仅要告诉线路另一端的人您想要的尺寸和配料，还要告诉他们您是如何得到他们的电话号码的，以及为什么在这个特定的晚上您有心情吃比萨饼，不是汉堡包或寿司。
Framing is a natural part of communication; some form of compression in any message is inevitable. It’s not practical to include all of the facts and context when communicating with others—we emphasize some details and leave out others to save time. We Frame because we have to: otherwise, it would take a huge amount of time to communicate even the simplest information to other people. It would take two hours to order a pizza, as you told the person at the other end of the line not only the size and toppings you wanted but how you got their phone number and why on this particular evening you were in the mood for pizza, not hamburgers or sushi.
由于框架是沟通中始终存在的一部分，因此有必要意识到这一点。通过注意您要强调的内容和最小化的内容，您可以以清晰简洁的方式向您的潜在客户传达您的报价的好处，从而最大限度地提高您的说服力。
Since Framing is an ever-present part of communication, it pays to be conscious of it. By being mindful of what you’re emphasizing and what you’re minimizing, you can communicate the benefits of your offer to your prospects in a clear and concise way, which maximizes your persuasive power.
陷害与撒谎或欺骗不同。诚实永远是最好的策略，而不仅仅是从道德的角度来看。虚假陈述您的报价可能会在短期内增加一些销售额，但它会增加违反客户期望的可能性，从而降低他们的满意度并永久损害您的声誉，我们将在稍后的期望效应中讨论这一点。
Framing is not the same as lying or being deceitful. Honesty is always the best policy, and not just from a moral perspective. Misrepresenting your offer may net a few more sales in the short term, but it increases the probability that your customer’s expectations will be violated, decreasing their satisfaction and permanently harming your Reputation, which we’ll discuss later in the Expectation Effect.
只要您不遗漏客户有权知道的信息，就可以利用框架来向您的潜在购买者传达您的报价的好处。
Using Framing to your advantage will allow you to communicate the benefits of your offer to your Probable Purchasers persuasively, as long as you don’t leave out information that your customers have a right to know.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/framing/
自由
Free
向任何人收取任何费用是没有利润的保证。获得关注与获得报酬不同。
To charge nobody nuthin’ is a guarantee of no profit. Getting attention is not the same as getting paid.
—约瑟夫·费拉拉，知识产权律师
—JOSEPH FERRARA, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY ATTORNEY
如果您想吸引注意力，请免费赠送一些有价值的东西。
If you want to attract Attention, give something valuable away for Free.
人们喜欢不劳而获的承诺。您可能已经看到超市免费赠送食品样品，或者收到免费试用产品或服务一段时间的邀请。很有可能，这些免费优惠中至少有一些让您购买了更多商品。免费价值的优惠继续存在，因为它们有效——免费价值由因优惠而产生的额外销售补贴。
People love the promise of getting something for nothing. You’ve probably seen Free samples of food being given away at the supermarket, or received an offer to try a product or service for a certain time at no obligation. Chances are, at least a few of those free offers have led you to purchase more. Offers of Free value continue to exist because they work—the Free value is subsidized by the additional sales that are made because of the offer.
我通过在我的网站上免费提供我的研究和写作来开始我的教学和咨询业务。结果，成千上万的人找到（或被推荐）个人 MBA，从信息中受益，并开始相信我是一个有用的资源。通常情况下，他们允许我继续通过电子邮件提供更有用的免费信息。
I started my teaching and consulting business by giving away my research and writing for Free on my website. As a result, hundreds of thousands of people find (or are referred to) the Personal MBA, benefit from the information, and come to trust me as a useful resource. More often than not, they give me permission to continue providing even more useful Free information via email.
当我开始咨询时，我提出免费通过电话与潜在的咨询客户会面——他们没有任何义务，我也没有任何保留。每次我提出这个提议，我都会收到数百个询问，并结识许多有趣的新朋友。接受第一次咨询的人中有很大一部分成为付费客户，使免费成为我的教学和咨询业务的基础。
When I started consulting, I offered to meet with prospective consulting customers by phone for Free—there’s no obligation whatsoever on their part, and I didn’t hold anything back. Every time I make this offer, I receive hundreds of inquiries and meet many new and interesting people. A good percentage of the people who accept the first consultation become paying customers, making Free the foundation of my teaching and consulting business.
通常情况下，提供真正的免费价值是吸引注意力的快速有效方式。通过预先免费为您的潜在客户提供一些有用的东西，您可以赢得他们的注意力，并让您的潜在客户有机会体验您提供的价值。如果做得好，此策略将为您带来原本无法实现的销售额。
More often than not, offering genuine Free value is a quick and effective way to attract attention. By giving your prospects something useful at no cost up front, you earn their attention and give your potential customers a chance to experience the value you provide. Done well, this strategy will net you sales you wouldn’t have made otherwise.
提供免费价值会吸引注意力，但永远记住，单靠注意力并不能支付账单。“病毒式传播”的警笛鼓励许多企业主为了吸引注意力而放弃太多，而不是建立和改善他们的盈利部分商业。注意力对于吸引付费客户是必要的，但如果这种注意力永远不会带来销售，它就无法维持您的业务。
Giving Free value attracts attention, but always remember that attention alone doesn’t pay the bills. The siren song of “going viral” encourages many business owners to give away too much in an effort to chase attention rather than establish and improve the profit-generating parts of their business. Attention is necessary to attract paying customers, but if that attention never leads to sales, it won’t sustain your business.
为获得最佳结果，请专注于赠送可能吸引真正付费客户的真正免费价值。
For best results, focus on giving away real Free value that is likely to attract real paying customers.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/free/
允许
Permission
向真正想听你说话的人推销比打断那些不想听的陌生人更有效。
Selling to people who actually want to hear from you is more effective than interrupting strangers who don’t.
—SETH GODIN，许可营销、紫牛和部落的畅销书作者
—SETH GODIN, BESTSELLING AUTHOR OF PERMISSION MARKETING, PURPLE COW, AND TRIBES
我做了一件不可思议的事：我打开了电子邮件帐户中的垃圾邮件文件夹。该文件夹包含 1,555 条未读消息，其中大部分是以下变体：
I just did the unthinkable: I opened the spam folder in my email account. The folder contained 1,555 unread messages, most of which were some variant of:
“俄罗斯辣妹想和你聊天！”
“Hot Russian babes want to chat with YOU!”
“在线购买伟哥！”
“Buy Viagra online!”
“瞬间消除脱发！”
“Eliminate hair loss instantly!”
我没有要求任何这些电子邮件——垃圾邮件发送者只是发送了它们，没有考虑我是否需要它们。我没有兴趣和“俄罗斯辣妹”聊天，我对黑市的伟哥没用，我喜欢秃头。
I didn’t ask for any of these emails—the spammers just sent them, without considering whether or not I wanted them. I have no interest in chatting with “hot Russian babes,” I have no use for black-market Viagra, and I like being bald.
我有多大可能阅读这些消息，更不用说回复它们了？根本不可能——相反，我会竭尽全力避免关注他们，在我购买他们推销的产品之前，这将是地狱般寒冷的一天。
How likely am I to read these messages, let alone respond to them? Not likely at all—on the contrary, I’ll go out of my way to avoid paying Attention to them, and it’ll be a cold day in hell before I purchase what they’re pushing.
许多商人认为垃圾邮件方法是获得关注的最佳方式。未经请求的电话、新闻稿、大众市场广告和“居民”地址直邮是最常见的合法垃圾邮件等同物：用标准消息覆盖大量无差异的人群，希望一小部分人会回应.
Many businesspeople assume that the spam approach is the best way to get Attention. Unsolicited phone calls, press releases, mass-market advertising, and “resident”-addressed direct mail are the most common legal equivalents of spam: blanketing a huge, undifferentiated group of people with a standard message in the hopes that a tiny fraction will respond.
在电视和广播广告的早期，商业中断是有效的。当只有三个频道时，人们更有可能在广告期间注意。通过在三大网络中的每一个上购买一个 30 秒的黄金时段广告位，您可以在一天内覆盖 90% 的电视观众。
In the early days of television and radio advertising, commercial interruptions worked. When there were only three channels, people were more likely to pay Attention during the commercials. By purchasing a single thirty-second prime-time advertising slot on each of the three major networks, you could reach 90 percent of the television-watching population in a single day.
现在，人们有能力过滤掉他们不想关注的任何内容，方法是忽略违规信息或将注意力转移到其他事物上。一旦你开始谈论你的潜在客户不关心的事情，他们就走了。
Now, people have the ability to filter out anything they don’t want to pay Attention to, either by ignoring the offending message or by shifting their Attention to something else. The moment you start talking about something your prospects don’t care about, they’re gone.
在提供免费价值后请求允许跟进比中断更有效。提供真正的价值可以赢得潜在客户的注意，而请求许可可以让您有机会专注于与您认识的对您所提供的产品感兴趣的人进行交流。
Asking for Permission to follow up after providing Free value is more effective than interruption. Offering genuine value earns your prospect’s Attention, and asking for Permission gives you the opportunity to focus on communicating with people you know are interested in what you have to offer.
许可是一项真正的资产。接触新人往往既困难又昂贵。跟进你已经认识的人要容易得多——只需要一封电子邮件、一封信或一个电话，所有这些都既简单又便宜。如果您要求您会见的新潜在客户允许跟进，那么您就是在充分利用您的外展活动。
Permission is a real asset. Reaching new people tends to be difficult and expensive. It’s far easier to follow up with someone you already know—all it takes is an email, a letter, or a phone call, all of which are easy and inexpensive. If you ask the new prospects you meet for Permission to follow up, you’re making the most of your outreach activities.
获得许可的最佳方式是请求许可。每当你为人们提供价值时，问问他们是否可以在未来继续为他们提供更多价值。随着时间的推移，您的潜在客户名单会增加，而且增加的越多，您开始获得更多销售的可能性就越大。
The best way to get Permission is to ask for it. Whenever you provide value to people, ask them if it’s okay to continue to give them more value in the future. Over time, your list of prospective customers will grow, and the larger it grows, the higher the likelihood you’ll start landing more sales.
获得许可后使用，但不要滥用该特权。获得跟进许可永远不会让您全权委托给他们发送任何您喜欢的东西。在询问您的潜在客户是否允许跟进之前，请明确他们将获得什么以及这将如何使他们受益。
Use Permission once you have it, but don’t abuse the privilege. Getting Permission to follow up never gives you carte blanche to send them anything you like. Before asking your prospects for Permission to follow up, make it clear what they’ll be getting and how it’ll benefit them.
如果您通过不断提供价值并避免向您的潜在客户发送大量无关信息来履行您的承诺，您将拥有一项强大的资产，可以帮助您与对您所提供的产品感兴趣的人建立更深层次的关系。
If you honor your commitments by continually providing value and refraining from spamming your prospects with irrelevant information, you’ll have a powerful asset that can help you build a deeper relationship with the people who are interested in what you’re offering.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/permission/
钩
Hook
如果你能做到，那不是吹牛。
If you can do it, it ain’t braggin’.
—DIZZY DEAN，名人堂棒球运动员
—DIZZY DEAN, HALL OF FAME BASEBALL PLAYER
复杂的消息被忽略或遗忘。您的潜在购买者很忙——他们没有时间关注每天攻击他们的所有信息。如果你想让人们记住你是谁以及你提供的是什么，你必须抓住他们的注意力并保持住——所有这一切都在几秒钟内完成。
Complicated messages are ignored or forgotten. Your Probable Purchasers are busy—they don’t have time to pay Attention to all of the information assaulting them every day. If you want people to remember who you are and what you’re offering, you have to grab their Attention and hold it—all in a matter of seconds.
Hook是描述要约的主要好处的单个短语或句子。有时 Hook 是标题，有时是简短的标语行。无论如何，它传达了某人想要您所售商品的原因。
A Hook is a single phrase or sentence that describes an offer’s primary benefit. Sometimes the Hook is a title and sometimes it’s a short tag line. Regardless, it conveys the reason someone would want what you’re selling.
出版界 Hook 的一个典型例子是 Timothy Ferriss 的书名The 4-Hour Workweek。这个简短的标题暗示了几个有趣的好处：（1）四个小时比大多数人的工作时间少很多，而且大多数人都愿意工作更少；(2) 每周 4 小时的收入可能与每周 40 小时的收入一样多；(3) 如果你不工作那么多，你可以用你的时间做其他很酷的事情。短短四个字，一点都不差。当书名与一个男人在热带海滩的吊床上放松的封面图片搭配时，这个标题在说服人们购买和阅读这本书方面大有帮助。
A classic example of a Hook in the publishing world is the title of Timothy Ferriss’s book, The 4-Hour Workweek. This short title implies several intriguing benefits: (1) four hours is a lot less than most people work, and most people would like to work less; (2) you can potentially earn as much in four hours a week as in forty-plus hours a week; (3) if you’re not working so much, you could do other cool things with your time. That’s not bad at all for four short words. When paired with the book’s cover image of a guy relaxing in a hammock on a tropical beach, the title goes a long way in convincing people to purchase and read the book.
Apple 在推出 iPod 时使用了一个 Hook：“口袋里有 1,000 首歌曲。” 当时，便携式音乐播放器由笨重的 CD 和盒式磁带播放器组成，早期 MP3 播放器的广告侧重于极客的说法：兆字节的磁盘空间。Apple 的 Hook 突出了主要优势：您无需随身携带数百盘磁带或 CD，您可以在一台优雅的设备中携带您的全部音乐收藏。
Apple used a Hook for the launch of the iPod: “1,000 songs in your pocket.” At the time, portable music players consisted of bulky CD and cassette players, and advertising for early MP3 players focused on geek speak: megabytes of disk space. Apple’s Hook highlighted the primary benefit: instead of carrying around hundreds of tapes or CDs, you could carry your entire music collection in one elegant device.
苹果公司的五个字标语行创造了奇迹。在不到一年的时间里，第一代 iPod 售出 236,000 台——这是一个惊人的开始，因为这是该公司首次进军便携式音乐领域。The Hook 抓住了注意力，产品质量结束了销售。
Apple’s five-word tag line worked wonders. In a little under a year, 236,000 first-generation iPods were sold—an astounding start, considering this was the company’s first foray into the portable music category. The Hook grabbed Attention, and the quality of the product closed the sale.
创建 Hook 时，请关注您的报价提供的主要好处或价值。强调您的报价的独特价值以及潜在客户为何应该关心。集思广益列出与您的主要利益相关的单词和短语，然后尝试用不同的方式将它们联系起来简而言之。制作钩子是一项创造性的练习——您产生的潜在选项越多，您就会越快找到可行的选项。
When creating a Hook, focus on the primary benefit or value your offer provides. Emphasize what’s uniquely valuable about your offer and why the prospect should care. Brainstorm a list of words and phrases related to your primary benefit, then experiment with different ways to connect them in a short phrase. Crafting a Hook is a creative exercise—the more potential options you generate, the faster you’ll find one that works.
创建 Hook 后，使用它！将它放在您的网站、您的广告、您的名片上——让它成为潜在客户首先看到的东西之一。钩子吸引了注意力，您的营销和销售活动的其余部分完成了交易。
Once you’ve created your Hook, use it! Place it on your website, your advertising, your business cards—make it one of the first things potential customers see. The Hook grabs Attention, and the remainder of your marketing and sales activities close the deal.
你的 Hook 越好，你就会吸引越多的注意力，你的满意客户就越容易向他们的朋友介绍你。
The better your Hook, the more Attention you’ll grab, and the easier it’ll be for your satisfied customers to tell their friends about you.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/hook/
呼吁采取行动
Call to Action
世界上所有美好的情感都比不上一个可爱的动作。
All the beautiful sentiments in the world weigh less than a single lovely action.
——詹姆斯·罗素·洛厄尔，十九世纪诗人
—JAMES RUSSELL LOWELL, NINETEENTH-CENTURY POET
如果他们消失了，吸引潜在客户的注意力也无济于事：如果您想进行销售，您需要引导潜在客户采取某种行动。
Attracting a prospect’s Attention doesn’t help if they disappear: if you want to make a sale, you need to direct your prospects to take some kind of action.
您的潜在客户无法读懂您的想法。如果您希望您的潜在客户采取您所鼓励的下一步，您需要告诉他们您希望他们做什么。最有效的营销信息会为接收者或潜在客户提供单一、清晰、非常简短的下一步行动。
Your prospects can’t read your mind. If you want your prospects to take the next step you’re encouraging, you need to tell them what you want them to do. The most effective marketing messages give the recipient or prospect a single, clear, very short action to take next.
想一想路边的广告牌，上面写着“Tony's Hamburgers Are the Best”之类的话。看到这条消息的人会做什么？没什么，可能吧。十有八九，广告牌是浪费时间和金钱。
Think about a roadside billboard that says something like “Tony’s Hamburgers Are the Best.” What will people who see that message do? Nothing, probably. In all likelihood, the billboard is a waste of time and money.
给他们一个号召 性用语 (CTA)，例如“从 25 号出口出来，然后右转，吃镇上最好的汉堡”，很快 Tony 就会为饥饿的旅客提供更多汉堡。
Give them a Call to Action (CTA) such as “Take Exit 25 and Turn Right for the Best Burgers in Town,” and soon Tony will be serving more hamburgers to hungry travelers.
号召性用语指示您的潜在客户采取单一、简单、明显的行动：访问网站。输入电子邮件地址。拨打电话号码。邮寄一个回邮的、贴有邮票的信封。单击一个按钮。购买产品。告诉一个朋友。
A Call to Action directs your prospects to take a single, simple, obvious action: Visit a website. Enter an email address. Call a phone number. Mail a self-addressed, stamped envelope. Click a button. Purchase a product. Tell a friend.
提出有效的号召性用语的关键是要清晰，尽可能简单明了。你的建议越有说服力，你的潜在客户就越有可能按照你的建议去做。
The key to presenting an effective Call to Action is to be as clear, simple, and obvious as you can. The more compelling your proposal, the higher the probability your prospect will do what you suggest.
如果您鼓励某人输入他们的电子邮件地址来注册时事通讯，请逐字逐句地说多次，并明确电子邮件地址字段的位置，他们为什么要填写它，输入后点击什么他们的电子邮件，以及他们在这样做时可以期望发生的事情。如果你认为自己太明显了，那你就做对了。
If you’re encouraging someone to enter their email address to sign up for a newsletter, say that verbatim multiple times, and make it clear where the email address field is, why they should fill it out, what to click once they’ve entered their email, and what they can expect to happen when they do. If you think you’re being too obvious, you’re doing it right.
最好的号召性用语要求进行销售或允许跟进。进行直销是最佳选择，因为它可以很容易地确定您的营销活动是否具有成本效益。征求许可是下一个最好的事情，因为它可以让你随着时间的推移跟进你的潜在客户，降低你的营销成本并增加最终销售的可能性。
The best Calls to Action ask either for the sale or for Permission to follow up. Making direct sales is optimal, since it makes it easy to figure out whether or not your marketing activities are cost-effective. Asking for Permission is the next best thing, since it allows you to follow up with your prospects over time, decreasing your marketing costs and increasing the probability of an eventual sale.
确保您创建的每条消息都有明确的号召性用语，您将提高营销活动的有效性。
Ensure that every message you create has a clear Call to Action, and you’ll increase the effectiveness of your marketing activities.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/call-to-action/
叙述
Narrative
一切皆有故事。
A tale in everything.
——威廉·华兹华斯，十九世纪诗人
—WILLIAM WORDSWORTH, NINETEENTH-CENTURY POET
自有历史以来，人们就一直在讲故事。讲故事是一种普遍的人类经验，而故事一直被用于贸易行为。一个好故事会让最好的报价变得更好。
Since the dawn of history, people have been telling stories. Telling stories is a universal human experience, and stories have always been used in the conduct of trade. A good story will make even the best offer even better.
世界上最引人注目的叙事都遵循一种通用格式。世界著名的神话学家约瑟夫·坎贝尔将这个原型故事情节称为“英雄之旅”或“单一神话”。世界各地的人们对这个故事主题的反应非常强烈，您可以使用这种基本格式来制作和讲述您自己的故事。
Most compelling Narratives around the world follow a common format. The world-renowned mythologist Joseph Campbell called this prototypical storyline the “Hero’s Journey” or the “monomyth.” People all over the world respond very strongly to this story motif, and you can use this basic format to craft and tell your own stories.
英雄之旅首先介绍了英雄：一个正在经历日常生活磨难的普通人。然后，英雄会收到“冒险的召唤”：一项挑战、任务或责任，要求他们超越正常存在，磨练自己的技能和能力，以取得胜利。
The Hero’s Journey begins by introducing the Hero: a normal person who is experiencing the trials and tribulations of everyday life. The Hero then receives a “call to adventure”: a challenge, quest, or responsibility that requires them to rise above their normal existence and hone their skills and abilities in order to prevail.
当英雄接受召唤时，他们将离开正常的经历，进入一个充满不确定和冒险的世界。一系列非凡的经历将他们带入了这个新世界，英雄在追求最终成功的过程中经历了许多考验并了解了许多秘密。
When the Hero accepts the call, they depart their normal experience and enter into a world of uncertainty and adventure. A series of remarkable experiences initiates them into this new world, and the Hero undergoes many trials and learns many secrets in the pursuit of ultimate success.
在逆境中坚持并战胜敌人之后，英雄获得了强大的礼物或力量，然后回到正常世界与人们分享这些知识、智慧或宝藏。作为回报，英雄得到所有人的尊重和钦佩。
After persevering in the face of adversity and vanquishing the foe, the Hero receives a mighty gift or power, then returns to the normal world to share this knowledge, wisdom, or treasure with the people. In return, the Hero receives the respect and admiration of all.
您的客户想成为英雄。他们希望受到所有人的尊重和钦佩，希望在逆境中变得强大、成功和坚定。他们想从其他战胜敌人的人的考验和磨难中得到启发。讲述已经走过您的潜在客户正在考虑的道路的人的故事是让他们对继续前进感兴趣的有效方式。
Your customers want to be Heroes. They want to be respected and admired by all, to be powerful, successful, and determined in the face of adversity. They want to be inspired by the trials and tribulations of other people who have come before and vanquished the foe. Telling a story about people who have already walked the path your prospects are considering is a powerful way to make them interested in proceeding.
推荐、案例研究和其他故事可以有效地鼓励您的潜在客户接受您的“冒险号召”。通过讲述以前来过的客户的故事，您可以吸引潜在客户的注意力，并向他们展示实现他们想要的目标的途径。故事越生动、清晰、在情感上越引人入胜，您就会吸引越多的潜在客户。
Testimonials, case studies, and other stories are effective in encouraging your prospects to accept your “call to adventure.” By telling stories about the customers who have come before, you grab your prospect’s Attention and show them a path to achieve what they want. The more vivid, clear, and emotionally compelling the story, the more prospects you’ll attract.
告诉您的潜在客户他们有兴趣听的故事，您将吸引他们的注意力。
Tell your prospective customers the stories they’re interested in hearing and you’ll grab their Attention.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/narratives/
争议
Controversy
如果你想要一个观众，开始战斗。
If you want an audience, start a fight.
——爱尔兰谚语
—IRISH PROVERB
争议意味着公开采取并非所有人都会同意、赞同或支持的立场。建设性地使用争议可以成为吸引注意力的有效方式：人们开始谈论、参与并关注你的立场，这是一件非常好的事情。
Controversy means publicly taking a position that not everyone will agree with, approve of, or support. Used constructively, Controversy can be an effective way to attract Attention: people start talking, engaging, and paying Attention to your position, which is a very good thing.
个人 MBA 本身就是积极争议力量的一个很好的例子。个人 MBA 是关于基本的商业原则——你需要了解的商业知识才能成功。我相信任何人都可以按照自己的方式学习他们需要了解的有关业务的任何知识，而无需通过注册传统的 MBA 课程来抵押他们未来的收入。
The Personal MBA itself is a good example of the power of positive Controversy. The Personal MBA is about fundamental business principles—what you need to understand about business in order to succeed. I believe that anyone can learn whatever they need to know about business on their own terms, without mortgaging their future earnings by enrolling in a traditional MBA program.
有些人强烈反对这种观点——尤其是常春藤盟校商学院的毕业生。MBA 毕业生和候选人经常直言不讳地表达他们的不同意见，通常采取的形式是在他们自己的网站上谴责个人 MBA 商业教育方法，或者通过在我的网站上发表评论来公开反对我。
Some people vehemently disagree with that position—particularly graduates of Ivy League business-school programs. MBA graduates and candidates are often quite vocal in their disagreement, which usually takes the form of denouncing the Personal MBA approach to business education on their own websites or publicly disagreeing with me by leaving comments on my website.
这并不是一件坏事：这种始终如一的温和争议让个人 MBA 在没有付费广告的情况下年复一年地增长。通过公开他们的想法，个人 MBA 的批评者正在向那些可能没有意识到传统商学院课程还有其他选择的人传播信息。
That’s not a bad thing: this consistent level of mild Controversy has allowed the Personal MBA to grow year after year without paid advertising. By making their thoughts known, the Personal MBA’s detractors are spreading the word to people who may not have been aware that there are alternatives to traditional business-school programs.
争议导致许多新人调查和检查个人 MBA，并对其有用性做出自己的决定。他们中有不少人留下来，阅读我的免费内容，然后决定购买一本书、参加一门课程或聘请我作为顾问。只要我的批评者保持文明，我欢迎这种分歧。
The Controversy leads many new people to investigate and examine the Personal MBA and make up their own minds about its usefulness. More than a few of them stick around, read my Free content, then decide to purchase a book, take a course, or hire me as a consultant. As long as my detractors keep things civil, I welcome the disagreement.
有意见并采取强硬立场是可以的。每个人都有一种自然的倾向，希望别人喜欢他们，而意见不一致往往会让人感到不舒服。为了不让人反感，很容易淡化您的意见，以至于不会冒犯任何人。如果你的立场为所有人所接受，那么它就会变得无聊到没有人会注意你。
It’s okay to have an opinion and take a strong stand. Everyone has a natural tendency to want other people to like them, and disagreement is often uncomfortable. In an effort to be unobjectionable, it’s easy to water down your opinions to the point where they offend no one. If your position is agreeable to everyone, it becomes so boring that no one will pay Attention to you.
支持一个并非所有人都支持的立场是可以的。不同意某人的观点，或者叫某人出局，或者让自己反对某事，都是可以的，因为争议会引发讨论。讨论就是关注，如果你想吸引那些将从你所做的事情中受益的人，这是一件非常好的事情。
It’s okay to support a position that not everyone else supports. It’s okay to disagree with someone, or to call someone out, or to position yourself against something, because Controversy provokes a discussion. Discussion is Attention, which is a very good thing if you want to attract people who will benefit from what you’re doing.
这并不是说所有的争议都是好的争议：在建设性争议和制作肥皂剧之间有一条微妙的界限。有目的的争论是有价值的；为了争议而争议，或者贬低和贬低的争议，都不是。如果你忽视了你行为背后的目的，争论对你没有帮助。
That’s not to say all Controversy is good Controversy: there’s a fine line between being constructively controversial and creating a soap opera. Controversy with a purpose is valuable; Controversy for the sake of Controversy, or Controversy that belittles and demeans, is not. Controversy won’t help you if you lose sight of the purpose behind your actions.
只要你能够保持对如何做的大局感如果您正在努力提供帮助，那么制造一些争议可能是鼓励人们寻找有关您正在做的事情的更多信息的非常有效的工具。
As long as you’re able to maintain a sense of the bigger picture of how you’re trying to help, creating a bit of Controversy can be a very effective tool in encouraging people to seek out more information about what you’re doing.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/controversy/
名声
Reputation
不管你喜不喜欢，市场的看法都会成为你的现实。
Like it or not, the market’s perception becomes your reality.
—霍华德·曼，演员和喜剧演员
—HOWARD MANN, ACTOR AND COMEDIAN
在我看来，“品牌”是现代商业世界中最被过度使用和夸大的想法之一。建立品牌没有什么神奇或复杂的：当商业专业人士说他们想要“提升他们的品牌”或“建立品牌资产”时，他们几乎总是指“提高他们的声誉”。
In my opinion, “branding” is one of the most overused and overhyped ideas in the modern business world. There’s nothing magical or complex about building a brand: when business professionals say they want to “enhance their brand” or “build brand equity,” they almost always mean “improve their reputation.”
声誉是人们对特定报价或公司的看法。每当人们互相交谈时，声誉就会产生。有些产品和服务物有所值；其他人不是。有些经历值得拥有；其他人不是。有些人很好共事；其他人不是。没有人愿意浪费他们的时间或金钱，所以人们非常关注别人对他们感兴趣的事情的看法。
Reputation is what people think about a particular offer or company. Reputations arise whenever people talk to one another. Some products and services are worth the price; others are not. Some experiences are worth having; others are not. Some people are good to work with; others are not. No one wants to waste their time or money, so people pay very close attention to what others say about things they’re interested in.
建立良好的声誉很有价值：人们通常愿意为良好的声誉支付额外费用。像 Tide 和 Crest 这样的知名消费品牌能够继续在接近商品的类别中收取溢价的原因之一是它们的声誉。潜在客户希望确定他们正在考虑的购买会让他们受益，其他人会高度评价他们的决定，并且他们不会浪费钱。正如一句古老的企业谚语所说，“没有人会因为购买 IBM 而被解雇。”
Building a strong Reputation is valuable: people are often willing to pay a premium for a good Reputation. One of the reasons well-known consumer brands like Tide and Crest can continue to charge premium prices in near-commodity categories is the strength of their Reputation. Potential customers want to feel certain that the purchase they’re considering will benefit them, that others will think highly of their decision, and that they won’t be wasting their money. As the venerable corporate saying goes, “No one ever got fired for buying IBM.”
请务必注意，您的声誉不受您的直接控制——它是其他人对您所做的一切看法的总和：您发布的产品、您推广的广告、您提供的客户服务。无论您多么努力，都无法“管理”您的声誉——您只能通过让人们对选择与您开展业务感到高兴来逐渐提高声誉。
It’s important to note that your Reputation is not under your direct control—it’s the sum total of what others think about everything you do: the products you release, the advertising you promote, the customer service you provide. No matter how hard you try, you can’t “manage” your Reputation—you can only try to improve it over time by making people glad they chose to do business with you.
永远记住，市场是您声誉的最终仲裁者，它一直在关注您的一举一动。当您建立良好的声誉时，您的客户将继续与您开展业务并将您推荐给其他人，因为他们对您的评价很高（并且因为向朋友推荐好的产品和服务是他们建立自己声誉的一种方式）。建立声誉需要时间和精力，但这是目前最有效的营销方式。
Always remember that the marketplace is the final arbiter of your Reputation, and that it’s always watching what you do. When you build a great Reputation, your customers will continue to do business with you and will refer you to others because they think highly of you (and because referring friends to good products and services is a way to build their own Reputations). Building your Reputation takes time and effort, but it’s the most effective kind of marketing there is.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/reputation/
3个
3
销售量
SALES
人们不喜欢被卖，但他们喜欢买。
People don’t like to be sold, but they love to buy.
—JEFFREY GITOMER，《销售圣经》和《销售小红书》的作者
—JEFFREY GITOMER, AUTHOR OF THE SALES BIBLE AND THE LITTLE RED BOOK OF SELLING
每个成功的企业都会出售它所提供的东西。如果没有人掏出钱包说“我要一个”，那么拥有数百万的潜在客户是不够的。销售过程从潜在客户开始，到付费客户结束。没有销售，就没有生意。
Every successful business sells what it has to offer. Having millions of prospects isn’t enough if no one pulls out their wallet and says, “I’ll take one.” The sales process begins with a prospect and ends with a paying customer. No sale, no business.
世界上最好的企业赢得了潜在客户的信任，并帮助他们理解为什么这项服务值得付出。没有人愿意做出错误的决定或被利用，因此销售包括帮助潜在客户了解什么是重要的，并让他们相信您有能力兑现您的承诺。
The best businesses in the world earn the trust of their prospects and help them understand why the offer is worth paying for. No one wants to make a bad decision or be taken advantage of, so sales consists of helping the prospect understand what’s important and convincing them you’re capable of delivering on what you promise.
销售过程的最后是一个兴奋的新客户和更多的银行现金。
The end of the sales process is an excited new customer and more cash in the bank.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/sales/
交易
Transaction
只有一个老板：客户。而且他可以解雇公司中从主席到下的所有人，只需将他的钱花在其他地方。
There is only one boss: the customer. And he can fire everybody in the company from the chairman on down, simply by spending his money somewhere else.
——山姆·沃尔顿，沃尔玛创始人
—SAM WALTON, FOUNDER OF WALMART
交易是两方或多方之间的价值交换。如果我有你想要的东西，你也有我想要的东西，如果我们同意交易，我们双方都会过得更好。
A Transaction is an exchange of value between two or more parties. If I have something you want and you have something I want, we’d both be better off if we agreed to trade.
交易是每个企业的决定性时刻。销售是业务周期中资源流入业务的唯一点，这使得完成交易对于企业的持续存在至关重要。企业通过赚取比支出更多的钱来生存，如果不完成交易，就无法做到这一点。
The Transaction is the defining moment of every business. Sales are the only point in the business cycle where resources flow into the business, which makes completing Transactions essential for the continued existence of the venture. Businesses survive by bringing in more money than they spend, and there’s no way to do that without completing Transactions.
您只能与具有经济价值的事物进行交易。如果您没有潜在客户想要的任何东西，他们就不会向您购买。这似乎是显而易见的，但令人惊讶的是，有多少潜在的商人在没有市场需要的情况下进入市场。这就是为什么开发和测试Minimum Viable Offer如此重要的原因：这是在投资毕生积蓄之前确定您是否创造了足够有价值的东西来出售的最佳方式。
You can only transact with things that are Economically Valuable. If you don’t have anything your prospective customers want, they won’t buy from you. This may seem obvious, but it’s amazing how many prospective businesspeople enter the market without something the market wants. That’s why developing and testing a Minimum Viable Offer is so important: it’s the best way to determine whether or not you’ve created something valuable enough to sell before you invest your life savings.
当您开始一项新业务时，目标是进行您的第一笔有利可图的交易：这是您从项目转变为业务的关键点。本章中的概念将帮助您创建双方都满意的有利可图的交易。
When you’re starting a new business, the object is to make your first profitable Transaction: that’s the point where you transition from being a project to being a business. The concepts in this chapter will help you create profitable Transactions that both parties are happy with.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/transaction/
相信
Trust
生活的秘诀是诚实和公平交易。如果你能伪造它，你就成功了。
The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.
——格劳乔·马克思，喜剧演员
—GROUCHO MARX, COMEDIAN
这里有一个建议：现在给我一张 100,000 美元的经过认证的银行支票，十年后我会给你意大利阿马尔菲海岸一栋面积达一万平方英尺的全新别墅的钥匙。您看不到任何示例别墅，在别墅准备好之前您不会再收到我的消息，并且不予退款。交易？
Here’s a proposal: send me a certified bank check for $100,000 right now, and in ten years I’ll give you the keys to a brand-new, ten-thousand-square-foot villa on Italy’s Amalfi Coast. You can’t see any example villas, you won’t hear from me again until the villa is ready, and there are no refunds. Deal?
除非你是一个有钱可烧的信任的人，否则可能不会。毕竟，你怎么能确定我能用这么少的钱给你盖一座海边豪宅？你怎么能确定我不会拿了钱就消失？
Unless you’re a trusting soul with cash to burn, probably not. After all, how can you be sure I can build you a seaside mansion for such a paltry sum? How can you be sure I won’t just take the money and disappear?
你不能，这就是为什么你不应该给我（或其他任何人）一张你从未见过的地中海别墅的支票。
You can’t, which is why you shouldn’t cut me (or anyone else) a check for a villa on the Mediterranean you’ve never seen.
让我们反过来说：假设我有能力建造这栋别墅，而您有兴趣购买一栋。在我确定你有钱支付之前购买土地、破土动工并开始建设对我来说是否明智？可能不会——如果交易失败，我将不得不寻找另一位客户或承担成本。
Let’s reverse the situation: let’s assume I’m capable of building this villa, and you’re interested in purchasing one. Would it be smart for me to purchase land, break ground, and start building before I’m sure you have the money to pay for it? Probably not—if the deal falls through, I’d have to find another customer or eat the cost.
如果双方之间没有一定程度的信任，交易将不会发生。无论做出什么承诺或交易听起来多么好，除非客户相信您有能力兑现承诺，否则没有客户愿意放弃他们辛苦赚来的钱。同样，接受不认识的客户的信用或欠条通常也不明智。
Without a certain amount of Trust between parties, a Transaction will not take place. No matter what promises are made or how good the deal sounds, no customer is going to be willing to part with their hard-earned money unless they believe you’re capable of delivering what you promise. Likewise, it’s usually not smart to accept credit or IOUs from customers you don’t know.
通过公平和诚实的交易逐渐建立值得信赖的声誉是建立信任的最佳方式。您还可以采取措施表明您是值得信赖的：存在在线评论、信用和背景调查服务以及托管账户等财务安排，以帮助克服交易双方之间最初缺乏信任的情况。这些产品打破了完成销售的重要相互障碍：如果没有这些可信度指标，许多交易将永远不会发生。
Building a trustworthy Reputation over time by dealing fairly and honestly is the best way to build Trust. You can also take steps to signal you’re trustworthy: online reviews, credit and background check services, and financial arrangements like escrow accounts exist to help overcome an initial lack of Trust between parties in a Transaction. These offerings break down an important mutual barrier to completing a sale: without these indicators of trustworthiness, many Transactions would never take place.
越容易证明您的可信度并验证对方是否值得信赖，交易成功的机会就越大。
The easier it is to demonstrate your trustworthiness and verify that the other party is trustworthy, the greater the chance of a successful Transaction.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/trust/
共同点
Common Ground
妥协是一种划分蛋糕的艺术，让每个人都认为他拥有最大的一块。
A compromise is the art of dividing a cake in such a way that everyone believes he has the biggest piece.
——路德维希·艾哈德，西德政治家和前总理
—LUDWIG ERHARD, POLITICIAN AND FORMER CHANCELLOR OF WEST GERMANY
共同点是两方或多方利益重叠的状态。将您的可用选项想象成一个围绕着您的圆圈。您的潜在客户也有一系列可用选项。你的工作是找到这些圈子重叠的地方，如果你了解你的潜在购买者想要或需要什么，这会容易得多。
Common Ground is a state of overlapping interests between two or more parties. Think of your available options as a circle that surrounds you. Your prospects have a circle of available options as well. Your job is to find where those circles overlap, which is much easier if you understand what your Probable Purchasers want or need.
考虑一下您目前从事的工作，或者您担任的最后一份工作。很有可能，您接受这份工作是因为您愿意承担某些责任，并且您的雇主有兴趣让您完成这项工作。您有兴趣获得一定数额的报酬，并且您的雇主愿意至少付给您那么多钱。您的兴趣重叠，导致工作机会和公司的带薪职位。那是共同点。
Consider the job you’re currently in, or the last one you held. Chances are, you accepted that job because you were willing to take on certain responsibilities, and your employer was interested in having you do the work. You were interested in being paid a certain amount, and your employer was willing to pay you at least that much. Your interests overlapped, which resulted in a job offer and a paid position at the company. That’s Common Ground.
每次您从零售企业购买商品时，都会发生同样的事情。他们有您想要拥有的产品；你有一定数量的钱，他们愿意为产品接受。如果您不想要该产品或零售商想要的超出您愿意支付的价格，则不会发生任何交易。
The same thing happens every time you purchase something from a retail business. They have a Product you want to own; you have a certain amount of money they are willing to accept for the Product. If you don’t want the Product or the retailer wants more than you’re willing to pay, no Transaction will take place.
共同点是任何类型交易的先决条件。如果没有任何重叠的兴趣领域，潜在客户就没有理由选择与您合作。毕竟，为某样东西付出超过它对你的价值的代价是没有意义的。如果这不符合他们的最大利益，为什么要期望您的潜在客户接受您的提议？
Common Ground is a precondition of any type of Transaction. Without any areas of overlapping interest, there’s no reason for a prospect to choose to work with you. After all, it wouldn’t make sense to pay more for something than it’s worth to you. Why expect your prospects to accept your offer if it’s not in their best interest?
协调利益对于找到共同点至关重要。销售不是要说服某人去做不符合他们最大利益的事情。理想情况下，您应该想要您的潜在客户想要的东西：满足他们的愿望或解决他们的问题。您的兴趣与潜在客户的兴趣越一致，他们就越相信您有能力满足他们的需求。
Aligning interests is critical to finding Common Ground. Sales isn’t about convincing somebody to do something that’s not in their best interest. Ideally, you should want what your prospects want: the satisfaction of their desire or the resolution of their problem. The more your interests are aligned with your prospect’s, the more they’ll Trust your ability to give them what they want.
成功的交易总是有很多路径，这是谈判的本质。谈判是探索不同选择以找到共同点的过程：您探索的潜在路径越多，您找到兴趣重叠的机会就越大。您对潜在选择越开放，就越有可能找到所有相关方都可以接受的共同点。
There are always many paths to a successful Transaction, which is the essence of negotiation. Negotiation is the process of exploring different options to find Common Ground: the more potential paths you explore, the greater the chance you’ll be able to find one on which your interests overlap. The more open you are to potential options, the higher the likelihood you’ll find an area of Common Ground that’s acceptable for all parties involved.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/common-ground/
定价不确定性原则
The Pricing Uncertainty Principle
生活中你想要的一切都有与之相关的价格。如果你想让事情变得更好，那就要付出代价，只是为了让事情保持原样而付出代价，一切都要付出代价。
Everything you want in life has a price connected to it. There’s a price to pay if you want to make things better, a price to pay just for leaving things as they are, a price for everything.
—哈里·布朗，《故障安全投资》一书的作者
—HARRY BROWNE, AUTHOR OF FAIL-SAFE INVESTING
销售中最引人入胜的部分之一就是我所说的定价不确定性原则：所有价格都是任意的和可塑的。定价始终是行政决策。如果你想尝试以 3.5 亿美元的价格出售一块小石头，你可以。如果您想在一小时后将价格提高四倍或降低到 0.10 美元，没有什么能阻止您。任何价格都可以随时设置为任何水平，没有限制。
One of the most fascinating parts of sales is what I call the Pricing Uncertainty Principle: all prices are arbitrary and malleable. Pricing is always an executive decision. If you want to try to sell a small rock for $350 million, you can. If you want to quadruple that price or reduce it to $0.10 an hour later, there’s nothing stopping you. Any price can be set to any level at any time, without limitation.
定价不确定性原则有一个重要的推论：在客户接受之前，您必须能够支持您的要价。一般来说，人们更愿意花尽可能少的钱来获得他们想要的东西（有一些明显的例外，我们将在稍后的社会地位中讨论）。如果您希望人们花大价钱购买您提供的产品，您必须能够提供一个理由，说明为什么所提供的价格值得支付。
The Pricing Uncertainty Principle has an important corollary: you must be able to support your asking price before a customer will accept it. In general, people prefer to pay as little as possible to acquire the things they want (with some notable exceptions, which we’ll discuss later, in Social Status). If you expect people to pay you good money to buy what you’re offering, you must be able to provide a Reason Why the offered price is worth paying.
很难支撑一颗石头 3.5 亿美元的价格——除非那块石头是 Hope 钻石，一颗 45.5 克拉的深蓝色钻石，有着悠久而卓越的历史。
It’s difficult to support a price of $350 million for a rock—unless that rock is the Hope diamond, a 45.5-carat deep-blue diamond with a long and distinguished history.
希望钻石目前由史密森尼国家自然历史博物馆所有，不得出售。然而，如果史密森尼决定出售希望钻石，他们可以将要价定为 10 亿美元。什么能阻止他们？
The Hope diamond is currently owned by the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History and is not for sale. If the Smithsonian decided to sell the Hope diamond, however, they could set an asking price of $1 billion. What’s to stop them?
拍卖是定价不确定性原则在起作用的一个例子——价格会随着感兴趣的人的数量和他们每个人愿意花多少钱的比例而变化。
Auctions are an example of the Pricing Uncertainty Principle at work—prices change, rising in proportion to how many people are interested and how much they’re each willing to spend.
由于他们设定了较低的起拍价并允许潜在买家相互竞价，因此拍卖通常是为难以复制且市场上尚无可比物品的物品确定真实市场价格的有效方式。这就是为什么像希望钻石这样的稀有物品——如果它们被出售——会在拍卖会上出售。有史以来最昂贵的钻石是重 507.5 克拉的 Cullinan Heritage 原石，在拍卖会上以 3530 万美元的价格成交。1对一块石头来说还不错。
Because they set a low starting price and allow potential buyers to bid against one another, auctions are often an efficient way to establish a true market price for something that is difficult to reproduce and for which no comparable items already exist in the market. That’s why rare items like the Hope diamond—if they’re sold—are sold at auction. The most expensive diamond ever sold was the rough, 507.5-carat Cullinan Heritage diamond, which went for $35.3 million at auction.1 Not bad for a rock.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/pricing-uncertainty-principle/
四种定价方式
Four Pricing Methods
定价是您对业务的所有有形和无形方面的汇率。现金价值。
Pricing is the exchange rate you put on all the tangible and intangible aspects of your business. Value for cash.
—帕特里克·坎贝尔，PROFITWELL 联合创始人兼首席执行官
—PATRICK CAMPBELL, COFOUNDER AND CEO, PROFITWELL
让我们暂时假设您拥有一所愿意出售的房子。定价不确定性原则说价格可以是任何东西——你必须自己设定，因为房子没有内置的价格标签。我们还假设您希望尽可能多地出售房子。您将如何设定客户可以接受的最高价格？
Let’s assume for a moment you own a house you’re willing to sell. The Pricing Uncertainty Principle says the price could be anything—you have to set it yourself, since houses don’t come with built-in price tags. Let’s also assume you’d prefer to sell the house for as much as possible. How would you go about setting the largest price a customer will accept?
有四种方法可以支持有价值的东西的价格：（1）重置成本，（2）市场比较，（3）贴现现金流/净现值，以及（4）价值比较。这四种定价方法将帮助您估算某样东西对您的客户来说有多少潜在价值。
There are four ways to support a price on something of value: (1) replacement cost, (2) market comparison, (3) discounted cash flow/net present value, and (4) value comparison. These Four Pricing Methods will help you estimate just how much something is potentially worth to your customers.
重置成本法通过回答“更换成本是多少？”这个问题来支持价格。就房子而言，问题变成了“建造或建造一栋像这样的房子需要多少钱？”
The replacement cost method supports a price by answering the question “How much would it cost to replace?” In the case of the house, the question becomes “What would it cost to create or construct a house just like this one?”
假设一颗陨石直接击中了房子，什么都没有了——你必须从头开始重建房子。购买类似的土地，花钱请建筑师制定计划，获得相同的材料，并雇用建筑工人来创建相同的项目需要什么？屋？将这些成本加起来，加上一点利润来补偿你的时间和精力，你就会对你的房子价值有一个可靠的估计。
Assume a meteorite scored a direct hit on the house, and there’s nothing left—you have to rebuild the house from scratch. What would it take to purchase similar land, pay for an architect to draw up plans, acquire identical materials, and hire construction workers to create the same house? Total up these costs, add a bit of margin to compensate for your time and effort, and you’ll have a supportable estimate of how much your house is worth.
适用于大多数报价，重置成本通常是一种“成本加成”计算：计算出创建成本是多少，添加您想要的加价，并适当地设置您的价格。
Applied to most offers, replacement cost is usually a “cost-plus” calculation: figure out how much it costs to create, add your desired markup, and set your price appropriately.
市场比较法通过回答“像这样的其他东西卖多少钱？”这个问题来支持价格。就房子而言，这个问题变成了“在这个一般地区，这样的房子最近卖了多少钱？”
The market comparison method supports a price by answering the question “How much are other things like this selling for?” In the case of the house, this question becomes “How much have houses like this, in this general area, sold for recently?”
如果您看看周边地区，在过去的一年里，可能还有其他一些与您拥有的房子相似的房子被出售。它们可能并不完全相同——也许它们有一个额外的卧室或浴室，面积稍微小一些，等等——但它们足够接近了。调整差异后，您可以使用这些“可比较”房屋的销售价格来创建可支持的房屋价值估算。
If you look at the surrounding area, there are probably a few other houses similar to the one you own that have been sold within the past year. They’re probably not exactly the same—maybe they have an extra bedroom or bathroom, a little less square footage, etc.—but they’re close enough. After you adjust for the differences, you can use the sale prices of those “comparable” houses to create a supportable estimate of how much your house is worth.
市场比较是一种非常常见的报价方式：找到类似的报价并将您的价格设置为相对接近他们的要价。
Market comparison is a very common way to price offers: find a similar offer and set your price relatively close to what they’re asking.
贴现现金流 (DCF)/净现值 (NPV) 方法通过回答“如果随着时间的推移能带来资金，它值多少钱？”这个问题来支持价格。就你的房子而言，问题变成了“如果你租一段时间，这所房子每个月能带来多少钱，今天这一系列现金流一次性值多少钱？”
The discounted cash flow (DCF)/ net present value (NPV) method supports a price by answering the question “How much is it worth if it can bring in money over time?” In the case of your house, the question becomes “How much would this house bring in each month if you rented it for a period of time, and how much is that series of cash flows worth as a lump sum today?”
每个月都会支付租金，这非常方便：您可以使用 DCF/NPV 公式2来计算如果一次性收到租金，那么在一段时间内的一系列付款的价值。通过计算房屋的净现值，假设您可以以每月 2,000 美元的价格租用它，租期为 10 年，入住率为 95%，并且您可以通过选择Next Best Alternative获得 7% 的利息，您将获得可支持的估计房子的价值。
Rent payments come in every month, which is quite handy: you can use the DCF/NPV formulas2 to calculate what that series of payments over a certain period of time would be worth if you received it in one lump sum. By calculating the NPV of the house, assuming you could rent it for $2,000 a month for a period of ten years with 95 percent occupancy and you could earn 7 percent interest on your money by choosing the Next Best Alternative, you’ll have a supportable estimate of what the house is worth.
DCF/NPV 仅用于为可以产生持续现金流的事物定价，这使其成为出售或收购企业时非常常用的定价方式——企业每月产生的利润越多，企业的价值就越高给购买者。
DCF/NPV is used only for pricing things that can produce an ongoing cash flow, which makes it a very common way to price businesses when they’re sold or acquired—the more profit the business generates each month, the more valuable the business is to the purchaser.
价值比较 法通过回答“这对谁特别有价值？”这个问题来支持价格。就房子而言，这个问题变成了“这所房子的哪些特征会使它对某些类型的人有价值？”
The value comparison method supports a price by answering the question “Who is this particularly valuable to?” In the case of the house, this question becomes “What features of this house would make it valuable to certain types of people?”
假设这所房子位于一个有吸引力、安全的社区，附近有一所一流的公立学校。这些特征将使房子对有学龄孩子的家庭更有价值，特别是如果他们想上那所学校。对于市场上的潜在购房者来说，这所房子比学校较差地区的同一所房子更有价值。
Let’s assume the house is in an attractive, safe neighborhood with a top-tier public school nearby. These characteristics would make the house more valuable to families who have school-age kids, particularly if they want to attend that school. To potential home buyers in the market, this particular house would be more valuable than the same house in an area with inferior schools.
这是另一个例子：假设埃尔维斯普雷斯利曾经拥有这所房子。对于某些类型的人——喜欢猫王的富人——这所房子将是无价之宝。Elvis 之前参与该物业可能会使您能够通过置换、市场比较或 DCF/NPV 方法支持的价格增加三倍或四倍。通过查看您所提供产品的独特特征以及这些特征对某些人的相应价值，您通常可以支持更高的价格。
Here’s another example: assume Elvis Presley once owned the house. To certain types of people—wealthy people who love Elvis—this house would be priceless. Elvis’s previous involvement with the property could triple or quadruple the price you’d be able to support via the replacement, market comparison, or DCF/NPV methods. By looking at the unique characteristics of what you’re offering and the corresponding worth of those characteristics to certain individuals, you can often support much higher prices.
价值比较通常是为您的报价定价的最佳方式，因为对特定群体的报价价值可能非常高，从而产生更好的价格。使用其他方法作为基准，但重点是发现您的报价对您希望将其出售给的一方来说价值多少，然后适当地设定您的价格。
Value comparison is usually the optimal way to price your offer, since the value of an offer to a specific group can be quite high, resulting in a much better price. Use the other methods as a baseline, but focus on discovering how much your offer is worth to the party you hope to sell it to, then set your price appropriately.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/4-pricing-methods/
价格转换冲击
Price Transition Shock
如果你想成为一名老飞行员，你必须知道什么时候推动它，什么时候退缩。
If you want to grow old as a pilot, you’ve got to know when to push it, and when to back off.
—CHUCK YEAGER，第一个突破音障的飞行员
—CHUCK YEAGER, FIRST PILOT TO BREAK THE SOUND BARRIER
当您更改报价的价格时，影响不仅限于您当前的目标市场。价格的变化可以在一夜之间改变您的典型前景。
When you change the price of an offer, the effects aren’t limited to your current target market. A change in prices can change your typical prospect overnight.
大多数刚接触业务的人都认为最好的方法是增加销量就是降低价格。这不一定是真的。通常，提高价格是吸引更多客户的有效方式。
Most people who are new to business assume that the best way to increase sales is to reduce prices. That’s not necessarily true. Often, raising your prices is an effective way to attract more customers.
当优惠是商品时，折扣会吸引顾客。如果一个加油站和另一个加油站的汽油没有区别，那么降低油价的加油站可能会带来更多的顾客。由于大多数加油站从便利店赚的钱比卖汽油赚的多，因此汽油折扣策略可能会带来更高的利润。
Discounts attract customers when the offer is a commodity. If there’s no difference between the gasoline at one gas station and another, the station that reduces its gas prices may bring in more customers. Since most service stations make more money from their convenience stores than they make selling gasoline, a gas discounting strategy may lead to higher profits.
在入门经济学课程中，这个概念被称为“价格弹性”。当价格上涨或下跌时，具有高价格弹性的报价会经历需求的重大变化。当价格变化时，价格弹性低的商品的需求波动很小。经济学家喜欢画出向下倾斜的价格曲线，表明需求随着价格下降而增加。
In introductory economics courses, this idea is called “price elasticity.” Offers with high price elasticity experience major changes in demand when prices go up or down. Offers with low price elasticity experience little fluctuation in demand when prices change. Economists love to draw downward-sloping pricing curves that show demand increasing as prices decrease.
传统定价曲线的问题在于，当报价不是商品时，它可能会产生误导。实际上，提高价格可以通过吸引更具吸引力的客户类型来增加需求。
The trouble with the traditional pricing curve is that it can be misleading when the offer isn’t a commodity. In practice, raising your prices can increase demand by appealing to a more attractive type of customer.
汽车是这种价格敏感性的典型例子：有些汽车因为价格昂贵而受欢迎。购买宾利欧陆 GT 的典型客户与购买丰田凯美瑞的客户类型截然不同。
Automobiles are a classic example of this type of price sensitivity: some cars are desirable because they’re expensive. The typical customer who purchases a Bentley Continental GT is very different from the type of customer who purchases a Toyota Camry.
当您测试不同的定价策略时，您会注意到您停止吸引某些类型的客户并开始吸引具有非常不同特征的客户的阈值。这种价格转换冲击会改变您经营业务的体验，您不应掉以轻心。
As you test different pricing strategies, you’ll notice thresholds where you stop appealing to certain types of customers and start appealing to customers with very different characteristics. This Price Transition Shock can change the experience of operating your business, and you shouldn’t take it lightly.
在考虑价格转换冲击的情况下设定价格时，有两个主要考虑因素：(1) 潜在盈利能力和 (2) 理想的客户特征。最好的策略是设置您的价格以吸引潜在客户，这将确保您以产生最高利润的方式与最理想的客户合作。
There are two major considerations when setting your prices with Price Transition Shock in mind: (1) potential profitability and (2) ideal customer characteristics. The best strategy is to set your prices to appeal to the prospects that will ensure you work with your most desirable customers in a way that results in the highest profits.
理想的平衡取决于您的目标市场。在某些市场，很容易为被低价吸引的客户提供服务；在其他情况下，折扣客户可能具有挑战性且粗鲁。同样，在高价时不眨眼的前景可能是令人愉快和亲切的，也可能是苛刻和傲慢的。经验取决于行业和潜在客户的期望。
The ideal balance depends on your target market. In some markets, it’s easy to serve customers who are attracted to low prices; in others, discount customers can be challenging and rude. Likewise, prospects that don’t blink at high prices can be pleasant and cordial or demanding and snooty. The experience depends on the industry and the prospects’ expectations.
我多年来参与的其中一家企业通过取消低价优惠，成功地将其平均订单价值翻了一番。结果，利润增加了。作为二阶效应，公司的典型客户变得更糟：潜在客户更频繁地提出不合理的要求，并且在这些要求得不到满足时以无礼的方式行事。短期财务结果是积极的，但这种变化给员工带来了极大的压力。
One of the businesses I’ve been involved with over the years succeeded in doubling its average order value by eliminating low-priced offers. As a result, profits increased. As a Second-Order Effect, the company’s typical customer changed for the worse: prospects made unreasonable demands more often and acted in disrespectful ways when those demands weren’t met. The short-term financial result was positive, but the change placed extraordinary stress on the staff.
另一方面，我建议的一家服务企业决定将其标准报价的价格提高四倍，并发现其新定位吸引了其理想客户：重视公司工作并认真对待项目的人。非理想客户因价格上涨而被拒之门外，因此他们离开了。结果，该公司的客户名册中充满了优秀的客户，利润增加了 500% 以上。员工对这一变化感到兴奋：他们正在为更好的客户做更多的工作，并因其专业知识获得更多报酬。
On the other hand, a service business I advise decided to quadruple the price of its standard offer and found that its new positioning appealed to its ideal customers: people who valued the firm’s work and took the project seriously. Nonideal customers were turned off by the hike in prices, so they went away. As a result, the company filled its client roster with excellent customers and increased profits by more than 500 percent. The staff is thrilled with the change: they’re doing more work for better clients and getting paid more for their expertise.
当您更改价格时，被您的报价吸引的潜在客户也会发生变化。只要您保持Sufficiency，您就可以选择吸引您喜欢的任何类型的客户。
As you change your prices, the prospects attracted to your offer will also change. So long as you maintain Sufficiency, you can choose to appeal to any type of customer you please.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/price-transition-shock/
基于价值的销售
Value-Based Selling
价格就是你付出的代价。价值就是你得到的。
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
——沃伦·巴菲特，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官，世界上最富有的人之一
—WARREN BUFFETT, CHAIRMAN AND CEO OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY AND ONE OF THE WEALTHIEST INDIVIDUALS IN THE WORLD
想象一下，您为一家财富500 强公司提供持续服务，使他们的年收入增加 1 亿美元。您的服务每年价值 1000 万美元吗？当然——毕竟，哪家公司会放弃 9000 万美元的持续收入？
Imagine that you provide an ongoing service to a Fortune 500 corporation that increases their annual revenues by $100 million. Is your service worth $10 million a year? Sure—after all, what company would give up $90 million in ongoing revenue?
如果提供这项有价值的服务不会花费您很多钱，这有关系吗？不——即使每年只花费一百美元来提供服务，你也提供了巨大的价值，支持相对较高的价格。
Does it matter if providing this valuable service doesn’t cost you much money? No—even if it only costs you a hundred dollars a year to provide the service, you’re providing a huge amount of value, which supports the comparatively high price.
如果大多数企业对企业服务的成本为 10,000 美元或更低，这有关系吗？不——您提供的价值远高于市场上的其他服务，这证明了更高的价格是合理的。
Does it matter if most business-to-business services cost $10,000 or less? No—you’re providing much more value than other services in the market, which justifies a higher price.
基于价值的销售是理解和强化您的报价对购买者有价值的原因的过程。在上一节中，我们讨论了价值比较法为何通常是支持高价报价的最佳方式。基于价值的销售是您支持该价格的方式。通过理解和强化交易对客户有价值的原因，您可以同时增加交易的可能性以及买家愿意支付的价格。
Value-Based Selling is the process of understanding and reinforcing the reasons your offer is valuable to the purchaser. In the previous section, we discussed how the value comparison method is often the best way to support a high price on your offer. Value-Based Selling is how you support that price. By understanding and reinforcing the Reason Why a Transaction will be valuable to the customer, you simultaneously increase the likelihood of a Transaction as well as the price the buyer will be willing to pay.
基于价值的销售不是说说，而是倾听。当大多数人想到销售时，他们会想象一个爱出风头、爱说花言巧语的害羞者，他们的首要任务是“完成交易”。效仿可疑的二手车经销商是破坏信任的最快方式，并给潜在客户留下这样的印象，即您更关心自己的底线，而不是他们想要什么。事实上，最好的销售人员是那些能够专心倾听客户想要的东西的人。
Value-Based Selling is not about talking—it’s about listening. When most people think of sales, they imagine a pushy, smooth-talking shyster whose sole priority is to “close the deal.” Emulating shady used car dealers is the fastest way to destroy Trust and give your potential customers the impression that you care more about your bottom line than about what they want. In reality, the best salespeople are the ones who can listen intently for the things the customer wants.
提出好的问题是确定您的报价对您的潜在客户有价值的最佳方式。在经典销售书籍SPIN Selling中，Neil Rackham 描述了成功销售的四个阶段：(1) 了解情况，(2) 定义问题，(3) 阐明该问题的短期和长期影响，以及(4) 量化需求收益，或客户在解决问题后体验到的经济和情感利益。成功的销售人员不会过早地强行推销，而是专注于提出详细的问题，以深入了解潜在客户的需求。
Asking good questions is the best way to identify what your offer is worth to your prospect. In the classic sales book SPIN Selling, Neil Rackham describes the four phases of successful selling: (1) understanding the situation, (2) defining the problem, (3) clarifying the short-term and long-term implications of that problem, and (4) quantifying the need-payoff, or the financial and emotional benefits the customer would experience after the resolution of their problem. Instead of barging in with a premature, boilerplate hard sell, successful salespeople focus on asking detailed questions to get to the root of what the prospect wants.
通过鼓励您的潜在客户告诉您更多关于他们需要什么的信息，您可以获得两大好处。首先，您增加了潜在客户对您了解情况的信心，增加了他们对您提供解决方案能力的信心。其次，您会发现可帮助您强调报价的价值的信息，这有助于您确定报价价格与其将提供的价值之间的关系。
By encouraging your prospects to tell you more about what they need, you reap two major benefits. First, you increase the prospect’s confidence in your understanding of the situation, increasing their confidence in your ability to deliver a solution. Second, you’ll discover information that will help you emphasize just how valuable your offer is, which helps you in Framing the price of your offer versus the value it will provide.
如果您发现您的产品为什么、如何以及有多大程度地使客户受益，您将能够用他们能够理解和欣赏的术语来解释该价值。了解您可以为客户提供的价值是实现盈利销售的黄金途径。
If you discover why, how, and how much your offer will benefit the customer, you’ll be able to explain that value in terms they’ll understand and appreciate. Understanding the value you can provide your customers is the golden path to a profitable sale.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/value-based-selling/
基于教育的销售
Education-Based Selling
升级你的用户，而不是你的产品。“价值”与其说是关于东西，不如说是关于这些东西能够实现的东西。不要制造更好的相机，而是制造更好的摄影师。
Upgrade your user, not your product. “Value” is less about the stuff and more about the stuff the stuff enables. Don’t build better cameras—build better photographers.
—Kathy Sierra，HEAD FIRST 丛书的作者和共同创作者
—KATHY SIERRA, AUTHOR AND COCREATOR OF THE HEAD FIRST SERIES OF BOOKS
在搬到科罗拉多州之前，我的妻子凯尔西 (Kelsey) 是纽约市 Mark Ingram Bridal Atelier 的销售经理，这是世界上最负盛名的婚纱沙龙。她的工作是帮助来自世界各地的新娘找到“the One”——为他们梦想的婚礼准备的完美礼服。
Before moving to Colorado, my wife, Kelsey, was the sales manager of the Mark Ingram Bridal Atelier in New York City, the most prestigious bridal salon in the world. Her job was to help brides from around the world find “the One”—the perfect dress for their dream wedding.
马克英格拉姆是婚纱行业的玛莎斯图尔特 - 他的时尚感是传奇。Monique Lhuillier、Lela Rose 和 Vera Wang 设计的礼服出现在他的收藏中。马克的顾问非常熟练，他们展示的前三件礼服中的一件几乎总是新娘为她的婚礼选择的礼服。此外，购物体验和客户服务都非常棒——马克不打折，但新娘宁愿与他合作也不愿从竞争对手那里购买礼服，即使这样会更便宜。
Mark Ingram is the Martha Stewart of the bridal industry—his sense of style is legendary. Gowns by Monique Lhuillier, Lela Rose, and Vera Wang populate his collection. Mark’s consultants are so skilled that one of the first three gowns they present is almost always the gown the bride chooses for her wedding. In addition, the shopping experience and customer service are superb—Mark doesn’t discount, but brides would rather work with him than purchase their gown from a competitor, even though it’d be less expensive.
与大多数婚纱店相比，Mark Ingram Bridal Atelier 出售的礼服非常高档。马克工作室一件礼服的平均售价为 6,000 美元——是全国平均水平的四倍。为了成交，马克的顾问必须帮助新娘（和她的父母，他们经常买单）了解为什么这件礼服物有所值。
Compared with most bridal salons, the Mark Ingram Bridal Atelier sells very high-end gowns. The average sale price of a gown at Mark’s atelier is $6,000—four times the national average. To make the sale, Mark’s consultants must help the bride (and her parents, who often pay the bill) understand why the gown is worth the price.
可以从另一家沙龙购买更便宜的礼服，但更便宜的礼服偷工减料：它们使用质量较低的面料，在结构上吝啬，并使用机加工蕾丝或珠饰。此外，必须进行改动以确保礼服适合新娘。Mark 的新娘裁缝团队是世界上最好的，只有从 Mark 的工作室购买婚纱才能与他们合作。
It’s possible to purchase a less expensive gown from another salon, but cheaper gowns cut corners: they use lower-quality fabrics, skimp on construction, and use machined lace or beading. In addition, alterations are necessary to ensure that the gown fits the bride. Mark’s team of bridal seamstresses is the best in the world, and you can only work with them if you purchase a gown from Mark’s atelier.
如果您关心这些事情——大多数有时尚意识的新娘都关心这些——那么很容易理解为什么在您负担得起的情况下从 Mark 那里购买一件礼服是值得的。
If you care about these things—and most fashion-conscious brides do—it’s easy to see why it’s worth it to purchase a gown from Mark if you can afford to.
基于教育的销售是让您的潜在客户变得更好、消息更灵通的客户的过程。作为一名销售顾问，凯尔西做了两件事事情：（1）让新娘感到舒适和放松，然后（2）帮助新娘更加了解礼服的制作方法以及购买礼服时的注意事项。
Education-Based Selling is the process of making your prospects better, more informed customers. As a sales consultant, Kelsey worked to do two things: (1) make the bride feel comfortable and relaxed, and then (2) help the bride become more knowledgeable about gowns in terms of how they are made and what to look for when buying one.
凯尔西并没有强迫新娘“结束销售”，而是总是花时间向新娘和她的家人解释面料、蕾丝、串珠、结构和改动的来龙去脉。她花时间让她的新娘们见多识广，这让她们更有可能从她那里购买昂贵的礼服，这既是因为她们学会了充分欣赏她所售商品的质量，也因为她赢得了她们的信任。
Instead of pressuring the bride to “close the sale,” Kelsey always took the time to explain the ins and outs of fabric, lace, beading, construction, and alterations to the bride and her family. She invested time in making her brides more knowledgeable, and this made them more likely to purchase an expensive dress from her, both because they had learned to fully appreciate the quality of what she was selling and because she had earned their Trust.
基于教育的销售需要对您的潜在客户进行前期投资，但这是值得的。通过投入精力让您的潜在客户变得更聪明，您同时建立了对您的专业知识的信任并使他们成为更好的客户。然而，请预先警告，有效的教育要求您的报价在某些方面优于您的竞争对手——否则，您将把客户赶走。更有理由确保您有一个值得出售的报价。
Education-Based Selling requires an up-front investment in your prospects, but it’s worth it. By investing energy in making your prospects smarter, you simultaneously build Trust in your expertise and make them better customers. Be forewarned, however, that effective education requires your offer to be superior in some way to your competitors’—otherwise, you’ll be sending customers away. All the more reason to ensure that you have an offer worth selling.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/education-based-selling/
下一个最佳选择
Next Best Alternative
当其他人感觉到您愿意走开时，您的手就会得到加强。. . 有时你最好不要同意。
When others sense your willingness to walk away, your hand is strengthened . . . Sometimes you are better off not getting to yes.
——罗伯特·鲁宾，美国前财政部长
—ROBERT RUBIN, FORMER US SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY
谈判时，了解对方在无法达成协议时可能采取的行动总是很有用的。有时，达成协议是不可能的——没有共同点，所以双方同意分道扬镳。然后怎样呢？
When negotiating, it’s always useful to know what the other party is likely to do in the event that an agreement can’t be reached. Sometimes, it’s just not possible to reach an agreement—there’s no Common Ground, so both parties agree to go their separate ways. What then?
你的下一个最佳选择是在你无法与你谈判的一方找到共同点的情况下你会做什么。假设您正在找工作，并且有 3 家公司有兴趣雇用您。你可能更愿意在 A 公司工作，但如果你无法达成双方都能接受的协议，那么如果你知道 B 公司和 C 公司也有兴趣雇用你，那么成为一名自信的谈判者会更容易。如果 A 公司是您唯一的选择并且他们知道这一点，那么您不太可能达成一笔好交易。
Your Next Best Alternative is what you’ll do in the event you can’t find Common Ground with the party you’re negotiating with. Imagine you’re looking for a job, and there are three companies interested in hiring you. You may prefer to work at Company A, but if you can’t reach a mutually acceptable agreement, it’s easier to be a confident negotiator if you know that Companies B and C are also interested in hiring you. If Company A is your only option and they know it, you’re not likely to get a good deal.
对方也总是有下一个最佳选择——就是这样你在谈判反对。如果您销售的产品价格为 100 美元，那么您就是在与他们可以用这 100 美元做的次好的事情进行销售：储蓄、投资或购买其他东西。如果你想雇用一名员工，你就是在与他们从另一家公司获得的下一个最佳报价竞争。对方的选择越多，你的谈判地位就越弱。
The other party always has a Next Best Alternative as well—that’s what you’re negotiating against. If you’re selling a product that costs $100, you are selling against the next best thing that they could do with that $100: save it, invest it, or purchase something else. If you’re trying to hire an employee, you’re competing against the next best offer they have from another company. The more options the other party has, the weaker your negotiating position.
了解对方的下一个最佳选择会给您带来重大的销售优势：您可以构建您的协议，使其比他们的下一个最佳选择更具吸引力。您对对方的备选方案了解得越多，您就越能通过捆绑或解除捆绑各种选项来微调您的报价。
Understanding the other party’s Next Best Alternative gives you a major sales advantage: you can structure your agreement so it’s more attractive than their next best option. The more you know about the other party’s alternatives, the better you can fine-tune your offer by Bundling or Unbundling various options.
拥有强大的 Next Best Alternative 可以让谈判继续进行。许多接近自由球员的职业体育运动员利用这个机会与他们目前的球队重新谈判或续签合同，特别是当其他球队对他们表示兴趣时。如果原球队不想失去这名球员，他们就有动力达成一份可以接受的交易。
Having a strong Next Best Alternative keeps negotiations moving. Many professional sports players who are approaching free agency use the opportunity to renegotiate or renew their contracts with their current teams, particularly if other teams express interest in them. If the original team doesn’t want to lose the player, they have an incentive to reach an acceptable deal.
在每一次谈判中，权力都掌握在能够并愿意放弃糟糕交易的一方手中。几乎在所有情况下，您拥有的备选方案越容易被接受，您的处境就越好。您的选择越有吸引力，您就越愿意放弃不适合您的交易，从而获得更好的交易。
In every negotiation, the power lies with the party that is able and willing to walk away from a bad deal. In almost every case, the more acceptable alternatives you have, the better your position. The more attractive your alternatives, the more willing you’ll be to walk away from a deal that doesn’t serve you, resulting in better deals.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/next-best-alternative/
排他性
Exclusivity
最好的策略总是非常强大。
The best strategy is always to be very strong.
——卡尔·冯·克劳斯维茨，军事战略家
—CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ, MILITARY STRATEGIST
在大多数销售情况下，保持排他性符合您的最大利益：创造其他公司无法比拟的独特报价或利益。如果您是唯一能提供您的潜在客户想要的东西的个人或公司，那么您就处于非常有利的地位，可以通过有利的条件进行谈判。
In most sales situations, it’s in your best interest to maintain Exclusivity: creating a unique offer or benefit that other firms can’t match. If you’re the only person or company that offers what your prospect wants, you’re in a very strong position to negotiate on favorable terms.
如果您想购买 iPhone，则必须通过 Apple 购买：它是唯一来源。您可以直接或通过零售商购买产品：无论哪种方式，Apple 都会收到付款。只要你想要一部 iPhone 并且不愿意接受替代品，Apple 就赢了。
If you want to purchase an iPhone, you have to buy it through Apple: it is the sole source. You may purchase the product directly or through a retailer: either way, Apple gets paid. So long as you want an iPhone and aren’t willing to settle for an alternative, Apple wins.
出于多种原因，排他性是有益的。独家优惠使保持高感知价值变得容易得多，因为没有直接竞争。替代品或备选方案可能存在，但如果潜在客户针对您的特定报价设置，他们将必须通过您获得它，从而使您更容易设定高价并保持健康的利润率。
Exclusivity is beneficial for many reasons. Exclusive offers make it much easier to maintain high Perceived Value, since there’s no direct competition. Substitutes or alternatives may exist, but if a prospect is set on your specific offer, they’ll have to obtain it through you, making it far easier for you to set high prices and maintain a healthy Profit Margin.
当您创造新事物时，排他性最容易保持，这意味着排他性策略对产品和服务最有意义。经销商通常发现很难建立排他性，除非他们在产品制造中发挥作用，这就是零售商经常创建“私人标签”品牌的原因。Costco 著名的 Kirkland Signature 品牌是一种创造排他性的方式，Trader Joe 与制造商谈判以创造独特产品的策略也是如此。
Exclusivity is easiest to maintain when you’ve created something new, which means an exclusivity strategy makes the most sense for Products and Services. Resellers often find it difficult to establish exclusivity unless they play a role in the product’s manufacture, which is why retailers often create “private label” brands. Costco’s famous Kirkland Signature brand is a way of creating exclusivity, as is Trader Joe’s strategy of negotiating with manufacturers to create unique products.
如果您是潜在客户想要的独家来源，您就赢了。
If you’re the exclusive source for what your prospects want, you win.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/exclusivity/
三种通用货币
Three Universal Currencies
时间会带走你的金钱，但金钱买不来时间。
Time will take your money, but money won’t buy time.
——詹姆斯·泰勒，音乐家
—JAMES TAYLOR, MUSICIAN
在每一次谈判中，都有三种通用 货币：资源、时间和灵活性。这些货币中的任何一种都可以或多或少地换取其他货币。
In every negotiation, there are Three Universal Currencies: resources, time, and flexibility. Any one of these currencies can be traded for more or less of the others.
资源是有形的物品，例如金钱、黄金、石油等。资源是有形的：您可以将它们握在手中。如果你想买一些家具，你可以提供金钱作为交换。如果您要出售您的汽车，购买者可以（在您同意的情况下）给您一块金条或崭新的Action Comics #1初版，其中印有超人的首次亮相。您正在用一种资源换取另一种资源。
Resources are tangible items like money, gold, oil, etc. Resources are physical: you can hold them in your hand. If you want to buy some furniture, you can offer money in exchange. If you’re selling your car, the purchaser could (with your agreement) give you a bar of gold or a mint first-edition issue of Action Comics #1, which features the first appearance of Superman in print. You’re trading one resource for another.
时间是第二种通用货币。如果你以小时工的身份上班，你就是在用一定的时间和精力换取一定的资源。您还可以用资源换取时间：您可以向其他人支付报酬以换取他们的工作，这是雇佣、承包和自由职业的本质。
Time is the second universal currency. If you go to work as an hourly employee, you are trading a certain amount of time and effort for a certain amount of resources. You can also trade resources for time: you can offer to pay other people in exchange for their work, which is the essence of employment, contracting, and freelancing.
灵活性是第三种通用货币——一种通常相当被低估了。成为一名受薪员工并不是直接用资源换取时间和精力——你也会放弃一定程度的灵活性。有一个隐含的协议，当你应该为公司工作时，你不会从事其他事情，这是一个非常真实的机会成本。当你在工作时，你正在放弃做其他事情的灵活性。
Flexibility is the third universal currency—one that is usually quite underrated. Becoming a salaried employee isn’t a straightforward exchange of resources for time and effort—you’re also giving up a certain amount of flexibility. There’s an implicit agreement that you won’t work on other things when you’re supposed to be working for the company, which is a very real Opportunity Cost. While you’re working, you’re giving up the flexibility to do something else.
通过权衡努力或资源来协商或多或少的灵活性是完全可能的。例如，您可以通过兼职工作来减少您的努力并增加您的灵活性，以换取更少的资源——减少的工资和福利。如果您同意 30 年的抵押贷款，与储蓄起来直接购买房屋相比，以额外资源（利息支付）和灵活性降低为代价，购买房屋需要的时间更少。
It’s entirely possible to negotiate for a greater or lesser degree of flexibility by trading off effort or resources. For example, you can decrease your effort and increase your flexibility by working part time, in exchange for fewer resources—reduced salary and benefits. Purchasing a house requires less time if you agree to a thirty-year mortgage versus saving up to buy it outright, at the cost of additional resources (interest payments) and decreased flexibility.
通过在一种或多种其他货币之间找到适当的权衡，可以获得更多这些所需货币中的任何一种。如果你想要加薪或更大合同形式的额外补偿，你可以放弃时间或灵活性（例如将你所做的用于其他目的的能力）作为权衡。如果你想在工作安排上有更多的灵活性或休假，你可以通过协商降低工资来补偿。如果您的雇主或客户希望您工作更多或希望从您的工作中获得更多收益，您可以要求他们提供更多报酬作为回报。
It’s possible to gain more of any of these desired currencies by finding appropriate Trade-offs between one or more of the others. If you’d like additional compensation in the form of a raise or a larger contract, you can give up time or flexibility (such as the ability to use what you make for other purposes) as a Trade-off. If you’d like a bit more flexibility or time off in your working arrangements, you can negotiate a decrease in salary to compensate. If your employer or client wants you to work more or wants to benefit more from your work, you can ask them for more compensation in return.
在谈判时牢记三种通用货币，您会惊讶于您可以向对方提供的潜在选项范围之广，从而更容易找到适合所有相关方的选项。
Keep the Three Universal Currencies in mind when negotiating and you’ll be amazed at the range of potential options you’ll be able to present to the other party, making it easier to find an option that works for all parties involved.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/3-universal-currencies/
谈判的三个维度
Three Dimensions of Negotiation
在你开始任何谈判之前，首先要决定的是，如果对方拒绝，你该怎么办。
The first thing to decide before you walk into any negotiation is what to do if the other fellow says no.
—ERNEST BEVIN，前英国外交大臣
—ERNEST BEVIN, FORMER BRITISH SECRETARY OF STATE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS
大多数人认为谈判就是坐在对方对面，提出要约和还价。但这是最后阶段过程；另外两个发生在你坐在谈判桌前很久。
Most people think of negotiation as sitting down across from the other party and presenting offers and counteroffers. But that’s the last phase of the process; the other two happen well before you ever sit down at the negotiating table.
谈判的三个维度是准备、结构和讨论。正如 David A. Lax 和 James K. Sebenius 在3-D Negotiation中所讨论的，这些阶段中的每一个都是必不可少的：通过创造有利于交易的环境并提前准备您的策略，您可以增加找到双方都能接受的谈判的可能性解决方案。
The Three Dimensions of Negotiation are setup, structure, and discussion. As David A. Lax and James K. Sebenius discuss in 3-D Negotiation, each of these phases is essential: by creating an Environment that’s conducive to a deal and preparing your strategy in advance, you can increase the probability of finding a mutually acceptable solution.
每次谈判的第一阶段都是准备阶段：为谈判取得令人满意的结果奠定基础。在你开始谈判之前，你能把握的机会越多，你就能达成越好的交易。
The first phase of every negotiation is the setup: setting the stage for a satisfying outcome to the negotiation. The more you can stack the odds in your favor before you start negotiating, the better the deal you’ll be able to strike.
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谁参与了谈判，他们是否愿意与您打交道？
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Who is involved in the negotiation, and are they open to dealing with you?
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你在和谁谈判，他们知道你是谁以及你可以如何帮助他们吗？
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Who are you negotiating with, and do they know who you are and how you can help them?
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你的提议是什么，它对对方有什么好处？
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What are you proposing, and how does it benefit the other party?
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设置是什么——您会亲自、通过电话还是通过其他方式展示您的报价？
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What’s the setting—will you present your offer in person, by phone, or by some other means?
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围绕交易的所有环境因素是什么——最近发生的事件是否使该交易对另一方更重要或更不重要？
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What are all of the environmental factors around the deal—do recent events make this deal more or less important to the other party?
设置相当于谈判的指导结构——交易周围的环境在最终结果中起着巨大的作用，因此在你到达谈判桌之前确保环境有利于达成一笔好交易是值得的。通过考虑设置，您可以确保您正在与正确的人进行谈判——有权给您想要的东西的人。研究赋予了谈判这一维度以力量——在这个阶段你对谈判伙伴了解得越多，你在整个谈判中的力量就越大，所以在提出要约之前做好功课。
Setup is the negotiation equivalent of Guiding Structure—the Environment surrounding the deal plays a huge role in the eventual outcome, so it pays to ensure that the Environment is conducive to getting a good deal before you ever reach the table. By thinking about the setup, you can make sure you’re negotiating with the right person—the person who has the Power to give you what you want. Research is what gives this dimension of negotiation its power—the more knowledge you gain about your negotiating partner during this phase, the more power you have in the entire negotiation, so do your homework before presenting an offer.
谈判的第二个维度是结构：提案的条款。在此阶段，您以对方可能会欣赏和接受的方式整理提案草案：
The second dimension of negotiation is structure: the terms of the proposal. In this phase, you put together your draft proposal in a way the other party is likely to appreciate and accept:
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你会提出什么建议，你是如何向对方提出建议的？
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What will you propose, and how are you Framing your proposal to the other party?
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您的提案对另一方的主要好处是什么？
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What are the primary benefits of your proposal to the other party?
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对方的Next Best Alternative是什么，你的提议如何更好？
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What is the other party’s Next Best Alternative, and how is your proposal better?
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您将如何克服对方的反对意见和购买障碍？
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How will you overcome the other party’s objections and Barriers to Purchase?
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您是否愿意为达成协议做出权衡或让步？
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Are there Trade-offs or concessions you’re willing to make to reach an agreement?
请记住，您创建提案的目的是找到共同点：双方都乐于接受的协议。通过提前考虑提案的结构，您可以根据您愿意接受的条件，准备一些您认为对方会想要的不同选项。
Remember, your goal in creating the proposal is to find Common Ground: an agreement that both parties will be happy to accept. By thinking through the structure of your proposal in advance, you can prepare a few different options that you believe the other party will want, on terms you’re willing to accept.
例如，如果您预计对方会在价格上犹豫不决，您可以准备论据来克服异议，提供价值较低的低成本选择，或者更能满足他们需求的替代方案。当您与谈判伙伴讨论交易的时候到了，您将做好一切准备。
If you’re expecting the other party to balk at the price, for instance, you can prepare arguments to overcome the objection, lower-cost options that provide less value, or alternative offers that would better fit their needs. When the time comes for you to discuss the deal with your negotiating partner, you’ll be ready for anything.
谈判的第三个维度是讨论：向对方提出要约。讨论是当您与另一方讨论您的建议时。有时，讨论会像您在电影中看到的那样发生：在红木墙的会议室里，隔着桌子，与 CEO 面对面交谈。有时它会通过电话发生。有时它发生在电子邮件中。无论在什么情况下，这都是您提出报价、讨论或澄清对方不理解的任何问题、回答异议并消除购买障碍以及要求出售的关键点。
The third dimension of negotiation is the discussion: presenting the offer to the other party. The discussion is when you talk through your proposal with the other party. Sometimes the discussion happens the way you see it in the movies: in a mahogany-walled boardroom, across the table, toe to toe with the CEO. Sometimes it happens over the phone. Sometimes it happens over email. Whatever the setting, this is the point where you present your offer, discuss or clarify any issues the other party doesn’t understand, answer objections and remove Barriers to Purchase, and ask for the sale.
无论讨论阶段发生什么，每一轮讨论的最终结果都是（1）“是的，我们就这些条款达成了协议”，（2）“我们还没有达成协议——这里有一个还价或其他可供考虑的选择，”或 (3) “不，我们没有达成协议——没有共同点，所以我们将暂停谈判并保留与其他人交谈的权利。” 讨论一直持续到达成最终协议或双方决定退出谈判，以先发生者为准。
Regardless of what happens during the discussion phase, the end result of every round of discussion is either (1) “Yes, we have a deal on these terms,” (2) “We don’t have a deal quite yet—here’s a counteroffer or another option to consider,” or (3) “No, we don’t have a deal—there’s no Common Ground, so we’ll suspend negotiations and reserve the right to talk to somebody else.” Discussion continues until a final agreement is reached or the parties decide to quit negotiating, whichever happens first.
如果您提前准备谈判的三个维度（设置、结构和讨论），您将更有可能达成对双方都有利的条款。
If you prepare the Three Dimensions of Negotiation (setup, structure, and discussion) in advance, you’ll be far more likely to settle on terms that benefit both parties.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/3-dimensions-of-negotiation/
缓冲
Buffer
没有知识的热心是愚昧的姊妹。
Zeal without knowledge is the sister of folly.
——约翰·戴维斯爵士，伊丽莎白时代的诗人和爱尔兰前司法部长
—SIR JOHN DAVIES, ELIZABETHAN POET AND FORMER ATTORNEY GENERAL OF IRELAND
除了最不得已的情况，Common Ground确保每笔交易都符合所有相关方的最佳利益。但是，协议或讨论的某些部分可能是一方的收益是另一方的损失。如果你正在面试一份工作并且你试图通过谈判获得更高的薪水，那么你薪水的任何增加都必然是雇主的损失。
In all but the most extenuating circumstances, Common Ground ensures that every deal is in the best interest of all parties involved. However, there may be parts of the agreement or discussion where one party’s gain is the other’s loss. If you’re interviewing for a job and you attempt to negotiate a higher salary, any increase in your salary is necessarily the employer’s loss.
根据情况，谈判的这些方面可能会很紧张。你想尽可能多地推动，但如果你太用力，你就有可能破坏交易并永久损害你与另一方的关系。在这些情况下，与可以帮助您在不危及关系的情况下达成一笔好交易的人一起工作会很有帮助。
Depending on the situation, these aspects of the negotiation can be tense. You want to push for as much as you can, but if you push too hard, you risk torpedoing the deal and permanently harming your relationship with the other party. In these cases, it’s helpful to work with someone who can help you negotiate a good deal without risking the relationship.
Buffer是有权代表您进行谈判的第三方。代理人、律师、调解员、经纪人、会计师和其他类似的主题专家都是缓冲区的例子。在特定类型的谈判中具有专业知识的缓冲可以帮助您获得最好的交易。如果您寻求诚实和能干的 Buffer 的帮助，您不必了解所有关于侵权法和税收政策等神秘主题的知识。
A Buffer is a third party empowered to negotiate on your behalf. Agents, attorneys, mediators, brokers, accountants, and other similar subject-matter experts are all examples of Buffers. Buffers who have expertise in specific types of negotiations can be valuable in helping you get the best deal possible. You don’t have to know everything about arcane topics like tort law and tax policy if you enlist the help of an honest and capable Buffer.
当一名职业运动员正在谈判一份加入职业运动队的合同时，他或她会寻求代理人和律师的帮助。经纪人的工作就是为运动员争取最好的报酬，球队的经理和老板都知道这一点。即使经纪人采取强硬态度，他们也可以对雇用运动员保持积极态度。最终，运动员的整体报酬在经纪人收费的情况下有所提高。
When a professional athlete is negotiating a contract to join a professional sports team, he or she enlists the help of both an agent and an attorney. The agent’s job is to obtain the best possible compensation for the athlete, and the team’s manager and owner know this. They can remain positive about hiring the athlete even while the agent plays hardball. In the end, the athlete’s overall compensation is improved despite the agent’s fees.
同样的事情也发生在运动员的代理人身上，他可以为在拟议合同中包含或排除某些条款。律师可以根据他们的知识、经验和专业知识，以更大的力量和效果提出这些建议。与代理人一起，代理人可以与球队老板和经理一起工作，以确保运动员获得球队愿意接受的最佳交易，而不会对运动员的声誉或商誉产生不利影响。
The same thing happens with the athlete’s attorney, who can argue for the inclusion or exclusion of certain provisions in the proposed contract. An attorney can make these proposals with much greater force and effect based on their knowledge, experience, and expertise. Together with the agent, the attorney can work with the team owner and manager to ensure that the athlete gets the best deal the team is willing to accept, without adversely affecting the athlete’s Reputation or goodwill.
缓冲对于为高强度谈判增加一些时间或空间也很有用。不成为拥有最终决定权的一方通常是非常有用的。在最终批准交易之前能够说“我需要与我的代理人/会计师/律师讨论这个问题”是一个有价值的检查步骤，可以防止草率或不明智的决定。
Buffers can also be useful in order to add some time or space to a high-intensity negotiation. It’s often quite useful not to be the party who has the final say. Being able to say, “I need to discuss this with my agent/accountant/attorney” before giving final approval on a deal is a valuable check step that prevents hasty or unwise decisions.
在使用缓冲区时要非常注意激励引起的偏差。根据安排，您的 Buffer 的优先级可能与您自己的有很大不同。例如，房地产经纪人充当房产卖家和潜在买家之间的缓冲器。如果您想购买房产，与买方代理合作通常很有用，前提是您知道他们是如何获得报酬的。
Be very mindful of Incentive-Caused Bias when working with a Buffer. Depending on the arrangement, your Buffer’s priorities may be very different from your own. For example, real estate agents act as Buffers between the sellers of property and potential purchasers. If you’re looking to buy property, it’s often useful to work with a buy-side agent, provided you’re aware of how they’re compensated.
代理人通常以佣金为基础获得报酬，因此如果您在交易的买方使用代理人，则需要谨慎。如果（且仅当）交易发生时，代理人会得到补偿。他们的首要任务是完成交易——任何交易——不管这对买家来说是否是最好的交易。
Agents are usually compensated on a commission basis, so it pays to be wary if you’re using them on the buy side of a deal. The Agent is compensated if (and only if) a Transaction occurs. Their first priority is to complete a deal—any deal—regardless of whether or not it’s the best possible deal for the buyer.
如果可能的话，与愿意接受固定费用以换取所提供服务的 Buffer 合作，无论交易是否发生。如果无论发生什么情况都将支付您的 Buffer，他们的利益将更接近于让您获得最好的交易，从而提高他们的声誉。
If at all possible, work with a Buffer who is willing to accept a flat fee in exchange for services rendered, whether or not the deal happens. If your Buffer will be paid regardless of what happens, their interests will be more closely aligned with getting you the best deal possible, which enhances their Reputation.
不要让您的 Buffer 取代您自己的判断。你能做的最糟糕的事情之一就是放弃对你的 Buffer 的决定的控制权，尤其是当你的利益不一致时。许多粗心的投资者发现，他们全权委托“投资专业人士”购买或出售证券时都会获得报酬，从而耗尽了他们的积蓄。通过“搅动”账户，经纪人能够合法地收取数千美元的不必要费用。根据经验，不要让任何人不受约束地控制影响您金钱的决定。
Don’t let your Buffer replace your own informed judgment. One of the worst things you can do is relinquish control over your decisions to your Buffer, particularly if your interests aren’t aligned. Many unwary investors have found their savings depleted by giving carte blanche to “investment professionals” who are compensated every time a security is bought or sold. By “churning” the account, the broker is able to legally rack up thousands of dollars in unnecessary fees. As a rule of thumb, don’t give anyone unfettered control over decisions that affect your money.
只要您清楚他们将如何获得奖励、他们负责什么以及你们打算如何合作，缓冲区就可以成为一种宝贵的资源。
Buffers can be a valuable resource as long as you’re clear about how they’ll be rewarded, what they’re responsible for, and how you intend to work together.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/buffer/
说服阻力
Persuasion Resistance
销售取决于推销员的态度，而不是潜在客户的态度。
Sales are contingent upon the attitude of the salesman, not the attitude of the prospect.
-W。克莱门特·斯通，保险推销员、慈善家和作家
—W. CLEMENT STONE, INSURANCE SALESMAN, PHILANTHROPIST, AND AUTHOR
让潜在客户对销售人员感到不安的事情之一是感觉他们会被“强行推销”或被欺骗同意一些不符合他们最大利益的事情。这种体验称为说服阻力，它是销售的主要障碍。
One of the things that makes prospects uncomfortable around salespeople is the feeling that they’re going to get the “hard sell” or be tricked into agreeing to something that’s not in their best interest. This experience is called Persuasion Resistance, and it’s a major barrier to making sales.
当潜在客户感觉到有人试图说服或强迫他们做他们不确定的事情时，他们会抵制并试图离开谈话。在销售人员试图以某种方式强制选择或限制潜在客户的可用选项的情况下尤其如此。
When a prospect senses that someone is trying to convince or compel them to do something they’re not sure about, they resist and attempt to move away from the conversation. This is particularly true in situations where the salesperson is trying to force a choice or limit the prospect’s available options in some way.
心理学家称之为“反抗”，它出现在儿童早期。每个父母都经历过告诉孩子他们“不能”或“必须”做某事的后果。当销售人员试图向销售施加压力时，潜在客户的反应大致相同，出于保持自主权的本能而拒绝。推销员推得越用力，潜在客户就越抗拒。这就是为什么强行推销的方法通常无法产生可持续的结果。
Psychologists call this “reactance,” and it appears in early childhood. Every parent has experienced the fallout of telling a child they “can’t” or “have to” do something. Prospects react in much the same way when a salesperson attempts to pressure a sale, resisting out of an instinct to preserve their autonomy. The harder the salesperson pushes, the more the prospect resists. That’s why hard-sell approaches usually fail to generate sustainable results.
更有效的策略，用著名的销售专家 Zig Ziglar 的话来说，就是以“助理买家”的身份向潜在客户展示自己。你的工作不是向潜在客户推销货物清单：而是帮助他们做出最适合他们的明智决定。你不是在强迫他们给你钱；您正在帮助确保他们明智地投资资源。对您在销售过程中的角色的基本重新解释有效：它通过说服潜在客户您正在寻找他们的最大利益来消除潜在客户的压力感。
The more effective strategy, in the words of the renowned sales expert Zig Ziglar, is to present yourself to the prospect as an “assistant buyer.” Your job is not to sell the prospect a bill of goods: it’s to help them make an informed decision about what’s best for them. You’re not pressuring them to give you their money; you’re helping to ensure they invest their resources wisely. This basic Reinterpretation of your role in the sales process works: it eliminates the prospect’s feeling of pressure by convincing them you’re looking out for their best interests.
销售人员需要注意另外两个可能触发说服阻力的信号：绝望和追逐。在销售过程的任何部分发送任一信号都会减少您关闭的交易的数量和规模。
Salespeople need to be aware of two additional signals that can trigger Persuasion Resistance: desperation and chasing. Sending either signal during any part of the sales process will reduce the number and size of the Transactions you close.
如果潜在客户觉得您迫切希望进行销售，那么他们的兴趣会在几秒钟内降低。绝望是一个微妙的信号，表明其他人不喜欢你的提议，而社会认同感开始对你不利。就像人们不想和一个迫切想要建立关系的人约会一样，潜在客户也不想与一个迫切想要或需要他们的钱的人做生意。
If a prospect feels that you’re desperate to make a sale, it diminishes their interest in a matter of seconds. Desperation is a subtle signal that other people don’t find your offer desirable, and Social Proof starts working against you. In the same way that people don’t want to date a person who desperately wants to be in a relationship, prospects don’t want to do business with a person who desperately wants or needs their money.
最好自信地展示自己，以表明您的报价很有价值、非常适合潜在客户并且是对潜在客户资金的明智投资的方式。如果您不真正相信这一点，则需要找到其他东西来出售。
It’s much better to present yourself with confidence, in a way that signals your offer is valuable, is a good fit for the prospect, and will be a wise investment of the prospect’s money. If you don’t genuinely believe that, you need to find something else to sell.
如果潜在客户感觉到你在追逐他们，他们的第一反应就是离开你。追逐与被追逐是进化的规律：几千年来，人类一直在追逐自己想要的东西，也一直被威胁所追逐。即使我们不会将情况标记为“追逐”或“被追逐”，我们的大脑也会在没有意识的情况下注意到并做出反应。
If a prospect senses you’re chasing them, their first impulse will be to move away from you. Chasing and being chased are evolutionary patterns: for thousands of years, human beings have chased things that are desirable and they have been chased by threats. Even if we wouldn’t label a situation as “chasing” or “being chased,” our minds notice and respond without conscious effort.
追逐潜在客户进行销售只会适得其反，浪费时间和精力。相反，想方设法使用Framing以鼓励潜在客户感觉他们正在追逐您的方式呈现情况。如果您的潜在客户觉得他们需要证明为什么他们有足够的能力与您合作，那么您就处于非常有利的地位，可以以优惠的条件进行销售。
Chasing a prospect to make a sale is counterproductive, a waste of time and energy. Instead, find ways to use Framing to present the situation in a way that encourages the prospect to feel like they’re chasing you. If your prospect feels like they need to justify why they’re good enough to work with you, you’re in a very strong position to make a sale on favorable terms.
我们将在《穴居人综合症》中讨论我们原始思维处理现代环境的其他方式。目前，重要的是要记住，这些社交信号充其量可能看起来很愚蠢，最坏的情况下可能看起来具有操纵性，但这并不会降低它们的真实性或重要性。通过了解您的潜在客户如何评估报价，您可以以最小化说服阻力并鼓励潜在客户渴望您提供的产品的方式来计划您的宣传。
We’ll discuss additional ways our primal minds process our modern Environment in Caveman Syndrome. For now, it’s important to remember that these social signals may seem silly at best or manipulative at worst, but that doesn’t make them any less real or important. By understanding how your prospects evaluate offers, you can plan your pitch in a way that minimizes Persuasion Resistance and encourages the prospect to Desire what you have to offer.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/persuasion-resistance/
往复运动
Reciprocation
礼物从来都不是免费的：它们将送礼者和接受者联系在一个互惠的循环中。
Gifts are never free: they bind the giver and receiver in a loop of reciprocity.
——马塞尔·莫斯，社会学家和人类学家
—MARCEL MAUSS, SOCIOLOGIST AND ANTHROPOLOGIST
回报是大多数人“回报”所提供的恩惠、礼物、利益和资源的强烈愿望。如果您曾经有过收到某人的节日礼物的经历，但您并没有送任何东西给您，您就会知道这种感觉有多难受。如果有人让我们受益，我们也愿意回报他们。
Reciprocation is the strong desire most people feel to “pay back” favors, gifts, benefits, and resources provided. If you’ve ever had the experience of receiving a holiday gift from someone you didn’t send anything to, you know how uncomfortable this feels. If someone benefits us, we like to benefit them in return.
作为一种社会力量，互惠是人类合作的主要心理倾向之一。“你挠我的背，我也挠你的”的本能是强大的，它构成了友谊和联盟的基础。从历史上看，送礼是当权者保持权力的方式：通过举办奢华的派对或慷慨地授予头衔和土地，领导人通过积累大量可以在需要时调用的恩惠来增加他们的影响力。
As a social force, Reciprocation is one of the primary psychological tendencies that underlie human cooperation. The “You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours” instinct is powerful and forms the foundation of friendships and alliances. Historically, gift giving was how the powerful remained in Power: in throwing lavish parties or generously awarding titles and land, leaders increased their influence by amassing a store of favors that could be called in during times of need.
这是棘手的部分：回报的愿望不一定与提供的原始利益成正比。在影响力：说服心理学中，Robert Cialdini 博士举了一个汽车销售往复的例子。汽车推销员通常会预先向潜在客户赠送小礼物。“我可以给你倒杯咖啡吗？你要苏打水吗？一些水？饼干？有什么我可以做的，让你舒服点吗？”
Here’s the tricky part: the desire to reciprocate is not necessarily in proportion to the original benefit provided. In Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, Dr. Robert Cialdini provides an example of reciprocation in car sales. Car salesmen often offer prospects a small gift up front. “Can I get you a coffee? Would you like a soda? Some water? Cookies? Is there anything that I can do to make you more comfortable?”
这似乎是一种常见的好客姿态。不是。接受这个小额报价会产生一种心理上的回报需求，巧妙地为推销员提供有利条件。接受此免费优惠的潜在购车者更有可能购买车辆、添加可选配件并同意不太吸引人的融资条款。结果，这些客户比那些在谈判中没有接受销售员任何东西的人多花了数千美元。这在理性上是不合理的，因为咖啡或饼干对经销商的成本非常低，但互惠使买家更有可能以更大的让步“回报”人情。
It seems like a common gesture of hospitality. It’s not. Accepting this small offer creates a psychological need to Reciprocate, subtly stacking the deck in the salesman’s favor. Prospective car buyers who accepted this Free offer were far more likely to purchase a vehicle, add optional accessories, and agree to less attractive financing terms. As a result, these customers spent thousands of dollars more than the people who did not accept anything from the salesman while negotiating. That doesn’t make rational sense, because the coffee or cookies cost the dealer very little, but Reciprocation makes it more likely that the buyer will “pay back” the favor with a much larger concession.
您可以预先向他人提供的价值越合理，他们在推介时就越容易接受。提供免费价值建立你的社会资本，使你受益的人更有可能在你提出要约时做出回报。
The more legitimate value you can provide to others up front, the more receptive they’ll be when it’s time for your pitch. Providing Free value builds your social capital, making it more likely the people you benefit will Reciprocate when you make an offer down the road.
慷慨大方是您作为销售人员可以做的最好的事情之一，可以提高您的业绩。如果你付出价值并尽可能地帮助别人，他们就会尊重你；它会建立您的声誉，但也会增加他们在您提出行动号召时足够感兴趣的可能性。
Being generous is one of the best things you can do to improve your results as a salesperson. If you give away value and help others as much as you can, they’ll respect you; it will build your Reputation, but it will also increase the probability that they will be interested enough when you do present your Call to Action.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/reciprocation/
破坏入场
Damaging Admission
我们承认我们的小错误是为了让人们相信我们没有大错误。
We confess our little faults to persuade people that we have no large ones.
—FRANÇOIS DE LA ROCHEFOUCAULD，十七世纪的法国宫廷官员和格言家
—FRANÇOIS DE LA ROCHEFOUCAULD, SEVENTEENTH-CENTURY FRENCH COURTIER AND APHORIST
当我和凯尔西从纽约市搬到科罗拉多州北部的山区时，我们的新房东本和贝蒂一定要通知我们关于我们新家的两个重要事实：
When Kelsey and I moved from New York City to the mountains of northern Colorado, our new landlords, Ben and Betty, made sure to notify us of two important facts about our new home:
-
岩石滑坡是一个非常真实的可能性。
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Rock slides were a very real possibility.
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黑熊和美洲狮在附近游荡。
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Black bears and mountain lions roamed nearby.
这些事实并没有阻止我们出租公寓，但我们很高兴能提前了解他们，这增加了我们对他们诚信度的估计。我们权衡了风险，增加了承租人的保险，购买了一罐防熊胡椒喷雾，并签了租约。
These facts didn’t prevent us from leasing the apartment, but we were glad to know them in advance, and it increased our estimation of their integrity. We weighed the risks, increased our renter’s insurance, purchased a can of bear pepper spray, and signed the lease.
与直觉相反，向您的潜在客户做出这样的破坏性承认可以增加他们对您兑现承诺的能力的信任。
Counterintuitively, making a Damaging Admission like this to your prospects can increase their Trust in your ability to deliver what you promise.
由于我和凯尔西住在曼哈顿时没有汽车，所以我们搬到科罗拉多州时不得不购买一辆车。我们在网上找到了一辆我们有兴趣购买的汽车，但是在没有看到车辆的情况下进行如此大的购买是不舒服的。
Since Kelsey and I didn’t own a car when we lived in Manhattan, we had to purchase one when we moved to Colorado. We found a car we were interested in purchasing online, but making such a large purchase without seeing the vehicle was uncomfortable.
为了帮助减轻我们的担忧，列出该车的经销商特意拍摄了每一个细节——包括车内的一个小芯片。在左侧涂漆，这没什么大不了的。因为他们愿意在我们购买之前在他们的描述中包括一些小缺陷，所以我们更有信心他们已经彻底描述了车辆。我们买了它，一切都和描述的一样。如果不做出破坏性的承认，经销商就不会进行销售。
To help alleviate our concerns, the dealership that listed the car went out of their way to photograph every detail—including a small chip in the paint on the left side, which wasn’t a big deal. Because they were willing to include even the small flaws in their description before we purchased, we felt more confident that they had thoroughly described the vehicle. We purchased it, and everything was as described. Without making a Damaging Admission, the dealer wouldn’t have made the sale.
您的潜在客户知道您并不完美，所以不要假装完美。当某件事看起来好得令人难以置信时，人们就会产生怀疑。如果报价没有明显的缺点，您的潜在客户会开始问自己，“有什么收获？”
Your prospects know you’re not perfect, so don’t pretend to be. People become suspicious when something appears to be too good to be true. If an offer has no obvious downsides, your prospects will start asking themselves, “What’s the catch?”
与其让他们疑惑，不如自己告诉他们。通过提前了解有关缺点和权衡的潜在客户，您将增强您的可信度并完成更多销售。
Instead of making them wonder, tell them yourself. By being up front with your prospects regarding drawbacks and Trade-offs, you’ll enhance your trustworthiness and close more sales.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/damaging-admission/
期权疲劳
Option Fatigue
别让我想。
Don’t make me think.
—STEVE KRUG，计算机可用性专家
—STEVE KRUG, COMPUTER USABILITY EXPERT
假设您正在市场上购买一台新电脑。您应该选择最快的可用处理器、价格只有一半的功能最弱的选项，还是中间选项？您需要多少存储空间？多少内存足以运行您的软件而不减慢您的速度？您应该选择哪种显示尺寸？您应该购买便携式计算机、台式机系统还是平板电脑？
Let’s say you’re in the market for a new computer. Should you choose the fastest available processor, the least powerful option that’s half the price, or the middle-of-the-road option? How much storage do you need? How much internal memory is enough to run your software without slowing you down? Which display size should you select? Should you purchase a portable computer, a desktop system, or a tablet?
对于大多数计算机购买者来说，这种决策矩阵是压倒性的。选择最佳选项似乎应该很容易，但事实并非如此：如果有五个单独的变量，每个变量有三个选项，则有 243 种可能的组合需要考虑。这足以使任何人的大脑短路。
This matrix of decisions is overwhelming to most computer purchasers. Choosing the best option seems like it should be easy, but it’s not: if there are five separate variables, and three options for each variable, there are 243 possible combinations to consider. That’s enough to short-circuit anyone’s brain.
选项疲劳通常是购买决策的主要障碍：如果潜在客户被决策淹没，他们通常会选择放弃购买而不是完成购买来解决他们的不适。潜在客户必须做出的每一个选择都会降低完成交易的可能性。
Option Fatigue is often a major barrier to buying decisions: if a prospect is overwhelmed by Decisions, they often choose to resolve their discomfort by abandoning the purchase instead of completing it. Every choice the prospect must make decreases the probability of closing the deal.
一般来说，最好的办法是引导购买者从两个或三个预定义选项，代表某些类型客户的良好起点，然后在必要时进一步自定义该选项。这就是为什么像 Apple 和 Dell 这样的计算机制造商会推出一些预配置的计算机来吸引某些类型的客户，然后允许您在购买过程的后期升级或降级各个组件。存在相同数量的选项，但潜在客户的认知负担要低得多。
In general, the best approach is to guide the purchaser to select from two or three predefined options that represent good starting points for certain types of customers, then customize that option further if necessary. That’s why computer manufacturers like Apple and Dell present a few preconfigured computers designed to appeal to certain types of customers, then allow you to upgrade or downgrade individual components later in the purchasing process. The same number of options exist, but the cognitive load on the prospect is much lower.
您不必从一开始就展示所有可用的选项：提出一些战略性建议可以让您的潜在客户参与进来，从而带来更多的销售。
You don’t have to present every available option from the outset: making a few strategic recommendations can keep your prospects engaged in a way that results in more sales.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/option-fatigue/
购买障碍
Barriers to Purchase
当潜在客户拒绝时，销售就开始了。
Selling begins when the prospect says no.
—销售格言
—SALES MAXIM
假设您向潜在客户提供了一份工作机会，他们的回答大致是“不，这对我不起作用”。是时候放弃并继续前进了吗？
Assume for a moment you present an offer to a prospect, and their reply is something along the lines of “No—that doesn’t work for me.” Time to give up and move on?
潜在客户拒绝总是有原因的。他们甚至在与您交谈这一事实表明他们至少对您的提议有一些兴趣——否则，谈话就会结束。如果您开始提出正确的问题，仍有希望完成销售。
There’s always a reason a prospect says no. The fact that they’re even talking with you implies that they have at least some interest in your offer—otherwise, the conversation would end. There’s still hope of closing the sale, if you start asking the right questions.
销售任何东西都是识别和消除购买障碍的过程：阻止您的潜在客户购买您提供的产品的风险、未知因素和担忧。作为销售人员，您的主要工作是识别并消除阻碍完成交易的障碍。消除潜在客户的反对意见和障碍，您就可以完成交易。
Selling anything is the process of identifying and eliminating Barriers to Purchase: risks, unknowns, and concerns that prevent your prospects from buying what you offer. Your primary job as a salesperson is to identify and eliminate barriers standing in the way of completing the Transaction. Eliminate your prospect’s objections and barriers and you’ll close the deal.
各种销售中都会出现五种标准异议：
There are five standard objections that appear in sales of all kinds:
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它的成本太高了。 损失厌恶让花钱感觉像是一种损失——通过购买，潜在客户正在放弃一些东西，这让人们犹豫不决。（有些人在做出购买决定后甚至会体验到这种失落感，这种情况称为“买家后悔”。）
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It costs too much. Loss Aversion makes spending money feel like a loss—by purchasing, the prospect is giving something up, and that makes people hesitate. (Some people even experience this sense of loss after they make a purchase decision, a condition called “buyer’s remorse.”)
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它不会工作。如果潜在客户认为优惠有可能不会（或不能）提供承诺的好处，他们就不会购买。
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It won’t work. If the prospect thinks that there’s a chance the offer won’t (or can’t) provide the promised benefits, they won’t purchase.
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它不会为我工作。潜在客户可能认为该提议能够为其他人带来好处，但他们是不同的——一种特殊情况。
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It won’t work for me. The prospect may believe that the offer is capable of providing benefits to other people but that they’re different—a special case.
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我可以等。潜在客户可能认为他们现在没有值得解决的问题，即使您很清楚他们确实有。
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I can wait. The prospect may believe they don’t have a problem worth addressing right now, even if it’s very clear to you that they do.
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太难了。如果要约需要他们付出任何努力，潜在客户可能会认为他们的贡献将难以管理。
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It’s too difficult. If the offer takes any effort whatsoever on their part, the prospect may believe that their contribution will be too hard to manage.
为了克服这些反对意见，将它们纳入您的初始报价结构是有意义的。由于这些异议非常普遍，因此在潜在客户考虑要约之前，您可以采取任何措施来缓解这些异议，这将使销售过程变得更加容易。
To overcome these objections, it makes sense to build them into the structure of your initial offer. Since these objections are very common, anything that you can do to alleviate them before the prospect considers the offer will make the sales process much easier.
异议 1（“成本太高”）最好通过框架和基于价值的销售来解决。如果您向一家企业销售一款软件，每年可以为他们节省 1000 万美元，并且您每年要价 100 万美元以获得许可证，那么您的软件并不昂贵 — 它几乎是免费的。如果很明显你的出价远远超过要价，那么这个反对意见就没有意义了。
Objection 1 (“It costs too much”) is best addressed via Framing and Value-Based Selling. If you’re selling a piece of software to a business that can save them $10 million a year, and you’re asking $1 million a year for a license, your software isn’t expensive—it’s almost Free. If it’s clear that the value of your offer far exceeds the asking price, this objection is moot.
反对意见 2 和 3（“它不会工作”/“它不会为我工作”）最好通过社会证明来解决——向潜在客户展示与他们一样的客户如何已经从你的产品中受益。你的故事和推荐信越像你的潜在客户的情况越好。这就是推荐如此强大的销售工具的原因——客户倾向于推荐具有相似情况和需求的人，而推荐本身有助于消除这些反对意见。
Objections 2 and 3 (“It won’t work” / “It won’t work for me”) are best addressed via Social Proof—showing the prospect how customers just like them are already benefiting from your offer. The more like your prospect’s situation your stories and testimonials are, the better. That’s why Referrals are such a powerful sales tool—customers tend to refer people who have similar situations and needs, and the Referral itself helps break down these objections.
反对意见 4 和 5（“我可以等”/“这太难了”）最好通过基于教育的销售来解决。通常，您的潜在客户还没有完全意识到他们有问题，尤其是在缺席盲目情况下。如果企业没有意识到它首先损失了 1000 万美元，就很难说服他们您可以提供帮助。解决这个问题的最佳方法是将早期的销售工作重点放在让客户变得更聪明上，方法是向他们传授您对他们的业务的了解，然后使用可视化帮助他们想象如果他们决定继续进行，他们的参与会是什么样子。
Objections 4 and 5 (“I can wait” / “It’s too difficult”) are best addressed via Education-Based Selling. Often, your prospects haven’t fully realized they have a problem, particularly in the case of Absence Blindness. If the business doesn’t realize it’s losing $10 million in the first place, it’s difficult to convince them that you can help. The best way to get around this is to focus your early sales efforts on making your customers smarter by teaching them what you know about their business, then use Visualization to help them imagine what their involvement would look like if they decide to proceed.
一旦获得潜在客户的关注和许可，就会有两个如果他们仍然有这些反对意见，则可能采取的策略：(1) 说服潜在客户反对意见不正确，或 (2) 说服潜在客户反对意见无关紧要。您将使用的方法取决于提出的反对意见，但框架、基于价值的销售、基于教育的销售、社会证明和可视化的某种组合通常可以达到目的。
Once you have the prospect’s Attention and Permission, there are two possible tactics if they still have these objections: (1) convince the prospect that the objection isn’t true, or (2) convince the prospect that the objection is irrelevant. The approach you’ll use depends on the objection raised, but some combination of Framing, Value-Based Selling, Education-Based Selling, Social Proof, and Visualization will usually do the trick.
如果潜在客户仍然不购买，这通常意味着存在权力问题——您的谈判伙伴可能没有预算或权力来同意您的提议。始终尝试与决策者谈判——这样，如果他们拒绝你的提议，你就知道那是因为它不适合他们，你可以转向更有希望的前景。
If the prospect still doesn’t buy, that often means there’s a Power issue—your negotiating partner may not have the budget or the authority to agree to your proposal. Always try to negotiate with the decision-maker—that way, if they refuse your offer, you know that it’s because it wasn’t a good fit for them, and you can move on to more promising prospects.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/objections-barriers-to-purchase/
风险逆转
Risk Reversal
如果您想要保证，请购买烤面包机。
If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster.
——克林特·伊斯特伍德，奥斯卡获奖导演兼演员
—CLINT EASTWOOD, ACADEMY AWARD–WINNING DIRECTOR AND ACTOR
通常，人们讨厌失败。他们讨厌愚蠢的感觉。他们讨厌做出错误的决定或浪费金钱。他们讨厌冒险。
People, as a rule, hate losing. They hate feeling stupid. They hate making bad decisions or wasting money. They hate taking risks.
当谈到结束销售时，你就是那个风险。在每一笔交易中，购买者都在承担一定的风险。如果此优惠无法按承诺使用怎么办？如果不能满足他们的需求怎么办？如果向您购买是浪费金钱怎么办？
When it comes to closing sales, you are that risk. In every Transaction, the purchaser is taking on some risk. What if this offer doesn’t work as promised? What if it doesn’t meet their needs? What if purchasing from you is a waste of money?
当潜在客户考虑向您购买时，这些问题总是在他们的脑海中浮现。如果您不消除这些问题，它们很可能会破坏销售。
These questions are always in the back of your prospect’s mind as they’re considering purchasing from you. If you don’t eliminate these questions, it’s very likely they’ll ruin the sale.
风险逆转是一种将交易的部分（或全部）风险从买方转移到卖方的策略。卖方不会让买方承担不良交易的风险，而是提前同意如果（无论出于何种原因）事情没有按照买方的预期进行纠正。
Risk Reversal is a strategy that transfers some (or all) of the risk of a Transaction from the buyer to the seller. Instead of making the purchaser shoulder the risk of a bad Transaction, the seller agrees in advance to make things right if—for whatever reason—things don’t turn out as the purchaser expected.
以床上用品行业为例。环顾四周，您会看到许多夸张的优惠：12 个月、100% 退款保证，不问任何问题！顾客可以在床上睡一年，觉得不喜欢，然后打电话给商店要求全额退款。疯了吧？
Take the bedding industry, for example. Look around, and you’ll see a lot of over-the-top offers: twelve-month, 100 percent money-back guarantees, no questions asked! A customer could sleep on a bed for a year, decide they didn’t like it, and call up the store to return it for a full refund. Crazy, right?
这一点也不疯狂：这种策略消除了购买者对风险的认知，这是购买的主要障碍。如果客户进行了购买但没有成功，他们不必为浪费金钱而感到愚蠢——他们也不必因为做出错误的决定而对公司或自己感到愤怒。他们所需要做的就是利用担保并将其退还——没什么大不了的。结果，他们将完成交易——没有任何不利之处，为什么不呢？
It’s not crazy at all: this strategy eliminates the purchaser’s perception of risk, which is a major Barrier to Purchase. If a customer makes a purchase and it doesn’t work out, they don’t have to feel stupid about wasting their money—and they don’t have to feel angry at the company or at themselves for making a bad decision. All they need to do is take advantage of the guarantee and return it—no big deal. As a result, they’ll go through with the Transaction—there’s no downside, so why not?
这种方法有时被称为“带小狗回家”策略。如果你去宠物店遇到一只可爱的小狗，但你不确定自己是否准备好承诺，宠物店通常会告诉你带小狗回家试试。“如果不成功，”销售人员说，“你可以随时退货。”
This approach is sometimes called the “take the puppy home” strategy. If you visit a pet store and meet an adorable puppy, but you’re not sure whether or not you’re ready to commit, the pet store will often tell you to take the puppy home on a trial basis. “If it doesn’t work out,” the salesperson says, “you can always bring it back.”
当然，小狗几乎再也不会回来了。轻松退货的承诺是促成销售的关键：销售人员乐于接受退货的小风险以确保交易成功，新主人对他们的决定不再那么焦虑，小狗也有了新家。每个人都赢了。
The puppy almost never comes back, of course. The promise of an easy return is the key to making the sale: the salesperson is happy to accept the small risk of a return to secure the sale, the new owners feel less anxious about their decision, and the puppy gets a new home. Everyone wins.
采用风险逆转策略是不舒服的，因为卖家也讨厌失败。没有卖家愿意感到被利用或被利用，如果客户明显从报价中获得价值并要求退款，通常很容易有这种感觉。
Adopting a Risk Reversal strategy is uncomfortable because sellers also hate to lose. No seller wants to feel used or taken advantage of, and it’s often easy to feel that way if a customer obviously gets value from the offer and asks for a refund anyway.
不同之处在于，买方是从一个卖方那里购买——卖方是在向许多买方销售。您的客户在每次购买时都会遇到这种风险，这是一个大问题。由于您服务的客户很多，因此您可以将退货成本分摊到所服务的客户总数中。
The difference is that the purchaser is purchasing from one seller—the seller is selling to many purchasers. Your customers experience this risk with every purchase they make, and it’s a big deal. Since you’re serving many customers, you can spread the cost of a return across the total number of customers you serve.
是的，您会在明显利用您的慷慨大方的客户身上赔钱，而且这种感觉永远不会好。作为补偿，通过消除每个购买者感受到的风险，您将完成更多的销售并在总收入和利润方面遥遥领先。
Yes, you’ll lose money on customers who are obviously taking advantage of your generosity, and that never feels good. In compensation, by eliminating the risk that every purchaser feels, you’ll close many more sales and come out way ahead in terms of total revenue and profit.
如果您想最大限度地提高销售额，提供非常强大的风险逆转保证并尽可能延长无风险期几乎总是有意义的。如果您还没有风险逆转政策，实施一个，您会看到您的销售额增加。
If you want to maximize your sales, it almost always makes sense to offer a very strong, risk-reversing guarantee and to extend the risk-free period as much as possible. If you don’t already have a Risk Reversal policy, implement one and you’ll see your sales increase.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/risk-reversal/
重新激活
Reactivation
每个公司最大的资产都是它的客户，因为没有客户就没有公司。
Every company’s greatest assets are its customers, because without customers there is no company.
—MICHAEL LEBOEUF，商业教授，着有《如何赢得客户并让他们终生受益》
—MICHAEL LEBOEUF, BUSINESS PROFESSOR AND AUTHOR OF HOW TO WIN CUSTOMERS AND KEEP THEM FOR LIFE
销售是说服潜在客户成为客户的过程。然而，赢得新客户往往既费钱又费时。如果有另一种方法可以以极低的额外成本带来更多收入怎么办？
Sales is the process of convincing prospects to become customers. Winning new customers, however, is often costly and time intensive. What if there was another way to bring in more revenue at very little additional cost?
重新激活是说服过去的客户再次向您购买的过程。如果您已经经营了一段时间，就会有一些“流失”的客户——已经从您这里购买过但已经有一段时间没有购买的人。您知道他们对您提供的产品感兴趣，并且您可能已经知道他们的联系信息。为什么不向他们提供新的优惠，让他们再次成为活跃客户？
Reactivation is the process of convincing past customers to buy from you again. If you’ve been in business for a while, you’ll have some “lapsed” customers—people who have already purchased from you but haven’t purchased for quite some time. You know they’re interested in what you have to offer, and you probably already have their contact information. Why not present them with a new offer to make them active customers once again?
Netflix 是一家以出色方式使用 Reactivation 的公司。如果您取消 Netflix 订阅，三到六个月后，您将收到一张明信片和/或电子邮件，其中包含以优惠价格重新订阅的优惠。如果您不回复，他们会每隔几个月发送另一条消息，直到您重新订阅或请求从他们的营销系统中删除。由于 Netflix 是一项订阅业务，每个重新激活的客户都意味着额外的每月收入流，这极大地提升了每个客户的生命周期价值。
Netflix is a company that uses Reactivation in a brilliant way. If you cancel a Netflix subscription, three to six months later you’ll receive a postcard and/or email with an offer to resubscribe at a reduced rate. If you don’t reply, they’ll send another message every few months until you resubscribe or request to be removed from their marketing system. Since Netflix is a Subscription business, every reactivated customer means an additional monthly stream of income, which greatly enhances the Lifetime Value of each customer.
与吸引新客户相比，重新激活通常是一种更快、更简单、更有效的增加收入的方法。您的老客户已经了解并信任您，他们知道您提供的价值。你有他们的信息——你不必去找他们。您的客户获取成本（允许获取成本的一个组成部分）很低——您所要做的就是联系他们并提供有吸引力的报价。
Reactivation is often a quicker, simpler, and more effective approach to increasing revenue than attracting new customers. Your old customers already know and Trust you, and they’re aware of the value you provide. You have their information—you don’t have to find them. Your cost of customer acquisition (a component of Allowable Acquisition Cost) is low—all you have to do is contact them and present an attractive offer.
如果您已获得客户的跟进许可，重新激活就会简单得多。您的潜在客户名单是一项宝贵的资产，但您的过去客户名单同样有价值。通过获得客户的许可以跟进他们，如果他们（无论出于何种原因）停止向您购买，您将增加重新激活的可能性。
Reactivation is much simpler if you have Permission from your customers to follow up. Your list of prospective customers is a valuable asset, but your list of past customers is just as valuable. By obtaining Permission from your customers to follow up with them, you increase the probability of Reactivation if they—for whatever reason—stop buying from you.
大多数销售点 (POS) 系统都会跟踪客户数据：购买者和销售时间。提取一段时间未向您购买的客户列表，然后通过电子邮件、电话或信件向他们提供重新激活优惠相对简单。重新激活活动是您尝试过的最简单、最有利可图的营销活动。
Most point-of-sale (POS) systems keep track of customer data: who purchased and when the sale was made. It’s relatively simple to extract a list of customers who haven’t purchased from you in a while, then present them with a Reactivation offer via email, phone call, or postal mail. Reactivation campaigns are the easiest and most profitable marketing activities you’ll ever try.
优先每三到六个月联系流失的客户并提供另一个优惠，看看是否可以鼓励他们再次开始购买。您会对结果感到惊讶。
Make it a priority, every three to six months, to contact your lapsed customers with another offer to see if you can encourage them to start buying again. You’ll be amazed by the results.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/reactivation/
4个
4
价值交付
VALUE DELIVERY
满意的客户是最好的商业策略。
A satisfied customer is the best business strategy of all.
—MICHAEL LEBOEUF，商业教授，着有《如何赢得客户并让他们终生受益》
—MICHAEL LEBOEUF, BUSINESS PROFESSOR AND AUTHOR OF HOW TO WIN CUSTOMERS AND KEEP THEM FOR LIFE
每个成功的企业都会兑现其对客户的承诺。有一个术语可以形容那些拿走别人的钱却没有提供同等价值的人：“骗子”。
Every successful business delivers what it promises to its customers. There’s a term for a person who takes other people’s money without delivering equivalent value: “scam artist.”
价值交付涉及确保每个付费客户都满意的一切必要条件：订单处理、库存管理、交付/履行、故障排除、客户支持等。没有价值交付，您就没有业务。
Value delivery involves everything necessary to ensure that every paying customer is a happy customer: order processing, inventory management, delivery/fulfillment, troubleshooting, customer support, etc. Without value delivery, you don’t have a business.
世界上最好的企业以超越客户期望的方式向客户提供他们承诺的价值。企业创造的客户越满意，这些客户再次从该公司购买的可能性就越大。满意的客户也更有可能将您的工作告诉其他人，从而提高您的声誉并吸引更多潜在客户。
The best businesses in the world deliver the value they’ve promised to their customers in a way that surpasses the customers’ expectations. The more happy customers a business creates, the more likely it is that those customers will purchase from the company again. Happy customers are also more likely to tell others about what you do, improving your Reputation and bringing in even more potential customers.
成功的企业在不断变化的环境中大部分时间都能满足他们的客户。不成功的企业无法让他们的客户满意，失去他们，最终失败。
Successful businesses satisfy their customers most of the time in the midst of a changing environment. Unsuccessful businesses fail to make their customers happy, lose them, and eventually fail.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/value-delivery/
价值流
Value Stream
伟大的设计就是消除所有不必要的细节。
Great design is eliminating all unnecessary details.
—MINH D. TRAN，技术人员和设计师
—MINH D. TRAN, TECHNOLOGIST AND DESIGNER
当我在宝洁公司工作时，我工作中最吸引人的事情之一就是了解产品是如何创造和交付的。下面让我们快速了解一瓶 Dawn 洗碗液的制作过程：
When I worked at Procter & Gamble, one of the most fascinating things about my job was understanding how products were created and delivered. Here’s a quick look at how a bottle of Dawn dishwashing liquid is made:
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原材料送到工厂。
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Raw materials are delivered to the factory.
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这些材料结合在一起制成洗碗液，储存在大桶中。
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The materials are combined to create dishwashing liquid, which is stored in large vats.
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使用模具将塑料瓶吹塑成型，然后装满液体并盖上盖子。
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Plastic bottles are blown into shape using molds, then filled with the liquid and capped.
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每个瓶子上都贴有不干胶标签。
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Adhesive labels are applied to each bottle.
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每个瓶子都经过检查、装箱，然后装载到托盘上。
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Each bottle is inspected, boxed, then loaded onto a pallet.
这是价值创造过程的教科书示例，该过程从原材料开始，到成品结束，随时可以发货。下面是接下来发生的事情：
It’s a textbook example of a value-creation process, which begins with raw materials and ends with a finished Product, ready to be shipped. Here’s what happens next:
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托盘被包装、堆叠并存储在仓库中以便装运。
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Pallets are wrapped, stacked, and stored for shipment in a warehouse.
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当客户下订单时，托盘被移动到位以装载到卡车上。
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When orders from customers are placed, pallets are moved into position for loading onto a truck.
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一辆卡车拿起托盘并将它们运送到离客户最近的配送中心。
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A truck picks up the pallets and delivers them to the customer’s closest distribution center.
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客户将托盘放在送货卡车上。
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The customer puts the pallets on a delivery truck.
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卡车将托盘运送到需要额外库存的商店。
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The truck delivers the pallet to a store that needs additional inventory.
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商店打开托盘包装，拆箱产品，然后将其转移到货架上，直到消费者购买为止。
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The store unwraps the pallet, unboxes the product, and transfers it to the shelf, where it will remain until purchased by the consumer.
对于一小瓶洗洁精来说，这是很多步骤。这些步骤值得研究。
That’s a lot of steps for a little bottle of dish soap. Those steps are worth studying.
价值流是从价值创造过程开始一直到将最终结果交付给客户的所有步骤和所有过程的集合。
A Value Stream is the set of all steps and all processes from the start of your value-creation process all the way through the delivery of the end result to your customer.
您可以将价值流视为价值创造和价值交付过程的结合。尽管这些核心流程的目的非常不同，但将它们视为一个大流程可以帮助您提高交付您创造的价值的能力。
You can think of the Value Stream as a combination of your value-creation and value-delivery processes. Even though the purposes of these core processes are very different, treating them as one big process can help you improve your ability to deliver the value you create.
丰田生产系统 (TPS) 是第一个定期系统地检查其整个价值流的大型制造企业。对生产系统的详细分析为正在进行的一系列小的、渐进的改进铺平了道路：丰田工程师每年对 TPS 进行超过 100 万次改进。结果，该公司在速度、一致性和可靠性方面获得了巨大的回报，这极大地提高了丰田作为一家拥有非常高质量产品的公司的声誉——也就是说，直到自动化悖论损害了该声誉，我们将讨论这一点稍后详细介绍。
The Toyota Production System (TPS) was the first large-scale manufacturing operation to systematically examine its entire Value Stream on a regular basis. Analyzing the production system in great detail paved the way for an ongoing series of small, incremental improvements: Toyota engineers make more than 1 million improvements to the TPS each year. As a result, the company reaps huge rewards in speed, consistency, and reliability, which has greatly improved Toyota’s Reputation as a company with very high-quality products—that is, until the Paradox of Automation damaged that Reputation, which we’ll discuss in detail later.
理解你的价值流的最好方法是画图。跟踪您的报价从开始到结束所经历的步骤或转变是一个启发性的过程，可以向您展示您的价值交付过程的效率。流程包含不必要的步骤或笨拙的转换是很常见的。创建整个价值流的完整图表需要付出努力，但它可以帮助您简化流程，使整个系统表现更好。1个
The best way to understand your Value Stream is to diagram it. Tracing the steps or transformations your offer goes through from the beginning to the end is an enlightening process that can show you just how efficient your value-delivery process is. It’s very common for processes to contain unnecessary steps or awkward transitions. Creating a complete diagram of your entire Value Stream takes effort, but it can help you streamline your process, making the entire system perform better.1
一般来说，尽量让你的价值流尽可能小和高效。正如我们将在本书后面讨论系统时检查的那样，流程越长，出错的风险就越大。您的价值流越短、越精简，它就越容易管理，您能够交付的价值也就越多。
In general, try to make your Value Stream as small and efficient as possible. As we’ll examine later in the book when we discuss systems, the longer your process, the greater the risk of things going wrong. The shorter and more streamlined your Value Stream, the easier it is to manage and the more value you’ll be able to deliver.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/value-stream/
分销渠道
Distribution Channel
除非一个人是挖蛤蜊的人、捕手或老式的镐和铲探矿者，否则现在几乎不可能靠自己取得成功。
Unless a person is a clam digger, a trapper, or an old-style pick-and-shovel prospector, it’s virtually impossible these days to be a success all by oneself.
—美国钢铁公司前总裁本杰明·F·费尔莱斯
—BENJAMIN F. FAIRLESS, FORMER PRESIDENT OF US STEEL
完成销售后，您必须向客户交付您的承诺。分销渠道描述了您的价值形式如何交付给最终用户。
Once a sale is made, you must deliver what you promised to your customer. A Distribution Channel describes how your form of value is delivered to the end user.
分销渠道有两种基本类型：直接面向用户和中介。
There are two basic types of Distribution Channels: direct-to-user and intermediary.
直接面向用户的分发通过单一渠道进行：从企业到最终用户。服务是一个典型的例子：当你理发时，价值是由企业本身提供给你的，没有中介。
Direct-to-user distribution works across a single channel: from the business to the end user. Services are a classic example: when you get a haircut, the value is provided by the business itself to you, with no intermediary.
直接面向用户的分发简单有效，但也有局限性——您可以完全控制整个过程，但您只能在时间和精力允许的情况下为尽可能多的客户提供服务。一旦对您的产品的需求超过了您提供产品的能力，您就有可能让客户失望并降低您的声誉。
Direct-to-user distribution is simple and effective, but it has limitations—you have full control of the entire process, but you can only serve as many customers as your time and energy allow. Once demand for your offer outpaces your ability to deliver it, you’re risking disappointing your customers and diminishing your Reputation.
中介分销跨多个渠道运作。当您从商店购买产品时，该商店正在从事转售。商店（在大多数情况下）不制造产品——它从另一家企业购买产品。
Intermediary distribution works across multiple channels. When you purchase a Product from a store, that store is engaging in Resale. The store (in most cases) doesn’t manufacture the Products—it purchases them from another business.
创建产品的企业可以将其出售给任意数量的商店，这一过程称为“安全分销”。产品的分销渠道越多，企业的销售额就可能越多——销售该产品的商店越多，销售机会就越多。
The business that created the Product can sell it to as many stores as it wants, a process called “securing distribution.” The more distribution a Product has, the more sales the business is likely to make—the more stores selling the Product, the more opportunities for sales.
中间分销可以增加销售额，但它需要放弃对价值交付过程的一定程度的控制。信任另一家企业为您的客户提供您的产品可以释放您有限的时间和精力，但它也会增加交易对手风险——您的合作伙伴搞砸并降低您的声誉的风险。
Intermediary distribution can increase sales, but it requires giving up a certain amount of control over your value-delivery process. Trusting another business to deliver your offer to your customers frees up your limited time and energy, but it also increases Counterparty Risk—the risk that your partner will screw up and diminish your Reputation.
想象一下，您从事饼干销售业务，并且在当地一家超市进行配送。超市从那里购买饼干你，把它们放在货架上，然后高价卖给他们的顾客。购物者不是从您那里购买饼干，而是通过超市购买它们：经典的中介分销。
Imagine you’re in the business of selling cookies and you secure distribution at a local supermarket. The supermarket purchases cookies from you, places them on their shelves, and sells them to their shoppers at a premium. Instead of buying cookies from you, shoppers purchase them via the supermarket: classic intermediary distribution.
很容易看出这种方法的好处，但也有缺点。假设您的饼干在去商店的途中在超市的卡车中损坏：它们破裂、碎裂，而且运送它们的盒子也被压碎。超市的购物者不会知道发生了什么，但如果经常发生，他们会认为您生产的产品质量低劣，损害了您的声誉。
It’s easy to see the benefits of this approach, but there are drawbacks. Let’s say your cookies are damaged in the supermarket’s truck on the way to the store: they break, they crumble, and the box they’re delivered in is crushed. The supermarket’s shoppers won’t know what happened, but if it happens often, they’ll assume that you create a low-quality Product, damaging your Reputation.
确保分销可能很有价值，但请留意您的中介机构。分销不是一劳永逸的策略——如果您使用多个分销渠道，请计划投入时间和精力确保它们很好地代表您的业务。
Securing distribution can be valuable, but keep an eye on your intermediaries. Distribution isn’t a set-it-and-forget-it strategy—if you’re working with multiple Distribution Channels, plan to devote time and energy to making sure they’re representing your business well.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/distribution-channel/
期望效应
The Expectation Effect
永远不要承诺超过你能执行的。
Never promise more than you can perform.
——普布利利乌斯·赛勒斯，公元前一世纪的叙利亚格言家
—PUBLILIUS SYRUS, FIRST-CENTURY BCE SYRIAN APHORIST
Zappos 完善了网上卖鞋的艺术。
Zappos has perfected the art of selling shoes online.
通过 Internet 销售鞋子是一项艰巨的业务 — 客户无法试穿，也没有人愿意被困在自己不喜欢且永远不会穿的鞋子里。作为补偿，Zappos 将经典的风险逆转应用于每个订单——如果您不喜欢所订购的产品，他们会提供免费送货和无条件退货服务。这两项政策消除了错误购买的风险，因此客户更愿意试用 Zappos。
Selling shoes over the internet is a tough business—customers can’t try them on, and no one wants to be stuck with shoes they don’t like and will never wear. To compensate, Zappos applies classic Risk Reversal to every order—they offer free shipping and no-questions-asked returns if you don’t like the Products you order. Those two policies eliminate the risk of making a bad purchase, so customers are more willing to try Zappos out.
然而，这并不是 Zappos在这个市场上享有如此稳固声誉的原因。秘诀在于公司不做广告的意想不到的好处。
That’s not, however, the reason Zappos has developed such a solid Reputation in this market. The secret lies in an unexpected benefit the company doesn’t advertise.
当您从 Zappos 订购时，您可能会收到惊喜：您的鞋子通常会提前几天送达。
When you order from Zappos, it’s likely that you’ll receive a pleasant surprise: your shoes will often arrive a few days ahead of schedule.
Zappos 可以宣传“免费加急送货”，但他们没有——惊喜更有价值。
Zappos could advertise “free expedited shipping,” but they don’t—the surprise is far more valuable.
客户对质量的看法取决于两个主观标准：期望和表现。您可以用准方程的形式来描述这种关系，我称之为期望效应：质量 = 绩效−期望。
A customer’s perception of quality relies on two subjective criteria: expectations and performance. You can characterize this relationship in the form of a quasi-equation, which I call the Expectation Effect: Quality = Performance−Expectations.
客户的期望必须足够高，才能让客户首先从您那里购买。然而，购买完成后，产品的性能必须超过客户的期望才能让他们满意。如果性能好于预期，客户对质量的感知就会很高。如果性能低于预期，质量的感知就会很低——无论报价在绝对意义上有多好。
Customer expectations have to be high enough for a customer to purchase from you in the first place. After the purchase is made, however, the performance of the offering must surpass the customer’s expectations in order for them to be satisfied. If performance is better than expectations, the customer’s perception of quality will be high. If performance is lower than expectations, the perception of quality will be low—no matter how good the offer is in absolute terms.
Apple 的第一代 iPhone 取得了巨大的成功——客户期望得到好的东西，他们收到的设备带来的好处超出了他们的预期。Apple 的第二代 iPhone，即 3G，并没有那么受欢迎——发布前的期望如此之高，以至于公司几乎没有办法超越他们，而且推出过程中的一些小故障成为了焦点。
Apple’s first-generation iPhone was a massive success—customers expected something good, and they received a device that delivered benefits beyond their expectations. Apple’s second-generation iPhone, the 3G, wasn’t as well received—prelaunch expectations were so high that there was almost no way the company could surpass them, and a few glitches in the roll-out process took center stage.
iPhone 3G 绝对是一款更好的手机——它速度更快，具有多项新功能、更大的内存和更低的价格。然而，对于许多客户来说，情况并没有好转——Apple未能实现他们的期望，公司的声誉也受到损害。同样的事情在第四代 iPhone 的发布时再次发生——天线的一个小故障让许多用户对这款设备感到不满，尽管新版本在其他方面都比旧版本好。
The iPhone 3G was a better phone in the absolute—it was faster and had several new features, more memory, and a lower price. To many customers, however, it didn’t feel better—Apple failed to deliver on their expectations, and the company’s Reputation suffered. The same thing happened again with the launch of the fourth-generation iPhone—a small antenna glitch soured many customers on the device, even though the new version was better than the old in every other respect.
超越期望的最好方法是给你的客户一个意想不到的红利，除了他们期望的价值。价值交付过程的目的是确保您的客户快乐和满意，而确保客户满意的最佳方法是至少满足客户的期望，并尽可能超越他们。
The best way to surpass expectations is to give your customers an unexpected bonus in addition to the value they expect. The purpose of the value-delivery process is to ensure that your customers are happy and satisfied, and the best way to ensure customer satisfaction is to at least meet the customers’ expectations, surpassing them whenever you can.
竭尽所能提供令客户意想不到的惊喜。Zappos 的免费升级送货作为惊喜更有价值——如果它是交易的一部分，它就会失去情感冲击力。
Do whatever you can do to provide something that unexpectedly delights your customers. Zappos’s free upgraded shipping is more valuable as a surprise—if it were part of the deal, it would lose its emotional punch.
当您的表现远远超出客户的期望时，他们会对体验感到满意。
When you perform well above your customers’ expectations, they’ll be satisfied with the experience.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/expectation-effect/
可预见性
Predictability
我一直认为，要使产品或服务蓬勃发展，就必须提供质量。好的产品或服务本身就是最好的卖点。
I have always believed that for a product or service to thrive, it must deliver quality. A fine product or service is its own best selling point.
—VICTOR KIAM，REMINGTON 产品和新英格兰爱国者队的前所有者
—VICTOR KIAM, FORMER OWNER OF REMINGTON PRODUCTS AND THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Aaron Shira 是我成长过程中最好的朋友之一，他与他的兄弟 Patrick 在美国俄亥俄州哥伦布市共同创办了一家绘画公司。Shira Sons Painting 专注于大型绘画项目——他们为大学、军事基地、大型教堂和价值数百万美元的房屋绘制过油漆。从零开始，他们现在是哥伦布地区几家主要总承包商的首选油漆公司。
Aaron Shira, one of my best friends growing up, cofounded a painting company with his brother, Patrick, in Columbus, Ohio, USA. Shira Sons Painting specializes in large-scale painting projects—they’ve painted universities, military bases, megachurches, and multimillion-dollar homes. Having started from scratch, they’re now the preferred painting company for several major general contractors in the Columbus area.
两个年轻人是如何打入一个竞争激烈的市场的，这个市场充满了从业时间比他们还长的承包商？很简单：当您雇用 Aaron 和 Pat 时，您可以确定工作会按时正确完成。
How did two young guys break into a competitive market filled with contractors who have been in business longer than they’ve been alive? Simple: when you hire Aaron and Pat, you can be certain the job will be done right and on time.
承包商是出了名的不可预测：他们经常迟到、工作时间太长、工作草率和/或态度恶劣。Aaron 和 Pat 成功的秘诀在于可预测性——他们每次都做得很好，按时交付，并且总是很愉快地共事。因此，他们的预订量很大——这是一项了不起的成就，尤其是在疲软的建筑市场中。
Contractors are notoriously unpredictable: they often show up late, take too long, do sloppy work, and/or have bad attitudes. The secret of Aaron and Pat’s success is Predictability—they do great work every single time, they deliver on schedule, and they’re always pleasant to work with. As a result, they’re booked solid—an impressive achievement, particularly in a soft construction market.
在购买有价值的东西时，客户想知道他们可以期待什么——他们希望他们的体验是可预测的。令人愉快的惊喜可以为客户提供良好的体验，但如果您无法以可预测的方式提供客户期望的东西，那么您提供多少奖金都无济于事。人们喜欢惊喜，但又讨厌措手不及。
When purchasing something of value, customers want to know what they can expect—they want their experience to be predictable. Pleasant surprises can provide a customer with a great experience, but if you’re not able to deliver what the customer expects in a predictable manner, it doesn’t matter how many bonuses you offer. People love pleasant surprises, but they hate to be caught off guard.
影响报价的可预测性的三个主要因素是：统一性、一致性和可靠性。
There are three primary factors that influence the Predictability of an offer: uniformity, consistency, and reliability.
一致性意味着每次都提供相同的特性。可口可乐是最早将扎实的营销与大规模产品统一相结合的大公司之一。饮料行业的产品一致性是一项惊人的壮举：制造、装瓶和分销苏打水是一项复杂的过程。多一点糖或调味剂、多一点空气或引入细菌都会极大地改变最终产品。
Uniformity means delivering the same characteristics every time. Coca-Cola was one of the first large companies to combine solid marketing with large-scale product uniformity. Product uniformity in the beverage industry is an astounding feat: creating, bottling, and distributing soda is a complex process. A little too much sugar or flavoring, slightly more air, or an introduction of bacteria can drastically alter the final product.
没有人希望他们最喜欢的苏打水每次喝的时候都有不同的味道。当您打开一罐可口可乐时，无论您在世界的哪个角落，您都希望得到与上次一样的产品。如果出售的可口可乐罐中有 0.1% 是无味或发酸的，人们就会停止购买。
No one wants their favorite soda to taste different every time they drink it. When you open a can of Coke, you expect the same product as you had the last time, no matter where you are in the world. If even 0.1 percent of the cans of Coca-Cola sold were flat or sour, people would stop buying.
一致性意味着随着时间的推移提供相同的价值。“新可乐”在 20 世纪 80 年代中期失败的原因之一是顾客期望可口可乐具有某种特定的味道，因此公司以相同的名称推出了新产品。违反一致性导致销量迅速下降，随后可口可乐公司恢复原始配方后销量迅速增加。
Consistency means delivering the same value over time. One of the reasons “New Coke” failed in the mid-1980s was that customers expected Coke to taste a certain way, and the company delivered something new under the same name. Violating consistency led to a swift decline in sales, followed by a swift increase when the Coca-Cola Company restored the original formula.
违背忠实客户的期望并不是成功之道——如果你提供不同的东西，就把它当作新东西来展示。
Violating the expectations of loyal customers is not the way to success—if you’re offering something different, present it as something new.
可靠性意味着能够在没有错误或延迟的情况下交付价值。询问 Microsoft Windows 用户他们最讨厌计算机的什么，他们总是会告诉您“系统崩溃”。不可靠性对用户来说是一个巨大的挫败感，尤其是当可预测性非常重要时。如果您正在盖房子而承包商没有按时出现，您会有什么感觉？
Reliability means being able to count on delivery of the value without error or delay. Ask Microsoft Windows users what they hate most about their computers, and they’ll always tell you, “System crashes.” Unreliability is a huge frustration for a user, particularly when Predictability is at a premium. How would you feel if you were building a house and a contractor didn’t show up on time?
提高可预测性具有重要的声誉和价值认知优势。您的标准产品越可预测，您就越能够提高您所提供的产品和服务的感知质量。
Improving Predictability has major Reputation and value perception benefits. The more Predictable your standard offering is, the more you’ll be able to increase the perceived quality of the Products and the Services that you offer.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/predictability/
质量
Quality
凡事力求完美。把现有的最好的东西做得更好。如果它不存在，请创建它。接受任何几乎正确或足够好的东西。
Strive for perfection in everything. Take the best that exists and make it better. If it doesn’t exist, create it. Accept nothing nearly right or good enough.
—HENRY ROYCE，劳斯莱斯的工程师和联合创始人
—HENRY ROYCE, ENGINEER AND COFOUNDER OF ROLLS-ROYCE
是什么让事情变得“好”？
What makes something “good”?
从广义上讲，质量是“适合目的”：产品是否提供了预期的好处，是否适合在预期的环境中使用？
Quality, in the broadest sense, is “fitness for purpose”: Does the offer deliver the intended benefits, and is it suitable for use in the intended Environment?
质量通常是主观的——某些方面，如制造公差，可以衡量，但模糊因素，如“最终用户是否喜欢使用它”，则更难量化。
Quality is often subjective—some aspects, like manufacturing Tolerances, can be measured, but fuzzy factors, like “Does the end user like using it,” are more difficult to quantify.
1987 年，哈佛商学院教授戴维·A·加文 (David A. Garvin) 提出了一个实用的框架，管理者和高管可以用来定义、衡量和提高质量。2我喜欢通过加尔文的八个因素来思考问题：
In 1987, David A. Garvin, a professor at Harvard Business School, proposed a practical framework managers and executives can use to define, measure, and improve quality.2 I like to think through Garvin’s eight factors in terms of questions:
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性能——它达到预期目的的效果如何？
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Performance—how well does it serve the intended purpose?
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特性——它提供了多少有用或有价值的好处？
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Features—how many useful or valuable benefits does it offer?
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可靠性——使用时损坏、故障或失效的概率是多少？
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Reliability—what is the probability it will break, malfunction, or fail when used?
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一致性——它符合既定标准的程度如何？缺陷是否普遍？如果我需要，是否可以提供可接受的替代品？
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Conformance—how well does it meet established standards? Are defects common? Are acceptable replacements available if I need them?
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耐用性——它能工作多久？
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Durability—how long will it work?
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可维护性——如果出现问题，是否容易修复？
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Serviceability—if something goes wrong, is it easy to fix?
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美学——使用它的主观体验是愉快的、有吸引力的还是令人放心的？
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Aesthetics—is the subjective experience of using it pleasurable, attractive, or reassuring?
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感知——它是否有良好的声誉并提供比预期更好的结果，以避免期望效应？
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Perception—does it have a good Reputation and deliver better results than anticipated, to avoid the Expectation Effect?
这种解构的好处在于它可以作为一个清单，说明如何随着时间的推移改进你的报价。没有什么是完美的：您总可以做一些事情来提高报价的质量。
The nice thing about this deconstruction is that it can serve as a Checklist of how to improve your offer over time. Nothing is perfect: there is always something you can do to improve the Quality of your offer.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/quality/
质量信号
Quality Signals
穿鞋的人也一样，好像整个地球都被皮革覆盖了。
Tis the same to him who wears a shoe, as if the whole earth were covered with leather.
——RALPH WALDO EMERSON，释义 SHANTIDEVA，八世纪的佛教学者
—RALPH WALDO EMERSON, PARAPHRASING SHANTIDEVA, EIGHTH-CENTURY BUDDHIST SCHOLAR
汽车爱好者喜欢被推向极限的强大发动机的轰鸣声。只有一个问题：制造业的进步导致发动机舱和客舱之间更好的隔离，从而降低发动机噪音。声音还在，但司机听不见。
Car aficionados love the roar of a powerful motor pushed to the limit. There’s just one problem: advances in manufacturing have resulted in better isolation between the engine compartment and the passenger cabin, which reduces engine noise. The sound is still there, but the driver can’t hear it.
如果你踩油门时听不到电机的声音，那么它真的会发出声音吗？
If you can’t hear the motor when you hit the accelerator, does it really make a sound?
许多主要汽车制造商（如宝马、福特、保时捷和大众）都采用了一种变通方法：当驾驶员踩下油门并且发动机达到特定转速时，它们会通过车辆的音频系统播放发动机噪音——在某些情况下，是人工发动机噪音阈值。3个
Many major car manufacturers (like BMW, Ford, Porsche, and Volkswagen) have adopted a workaround: they play engine noise—in some cases, artificial engine noise—through the vehicle’s audio system when the driver presses the accelerator and the engine reaches certain RPM thresholds.3
一些司机不喜欢这种技巧，但有一个很好的理由支持听觉技巧：发动机噪音是提高客户满意度的重要质量审美信号。人们喜欢这种声音，即使它是经过精心设计的。
Some drivers don’t like the artifice, but there’s a good argument to be made for the auditory sleight of hand: engine noise is an important aesthetic signal of Quality that increases customer satisfaction. People enjoy the sound, even if it’s engineered.
质量信号是旨在以直接、有形的方式提高用户对质量的感知的报价要素。当难以看到、听到、感觉到或以其他方式注意到性能时，质量信号可提供重要的保证，确保产品按预期运行。
Quality Signals are elements of an offer designed to increase the user’s perception of Quality in a direct, tangible way. When performance is difficult to see, hear, feel, or otherwise notice, Quality Signals provide important reassurance that the offer is performing as intended.
质量信号不仅可以提高客户满意度：有“理由相信”该报价能够产生承诺的结果，还可以使营销和销售工作更轻松、更有效。
Quality Signals don’t just increase customer satisfaction: having a “reason to believe” the offer is able to produce the promised results makes marketing and sales efforts easier and more effective.
洗洁精不需要在洗碗水中产生蓬松的白色气泡才能起作用，但气泡的存在是洗涤剂存在的有形指标。Procter & Gamble 等肥皂制造商不会在没有充分理由的情况下向肥皂中添加“起泡剂”：额外的原材料会增加生产成本和复杂性，但提高客户满意度使其成为一项值得的投资。
Dish detergent doesn’t need to produce fluffy white bubbles in dishwater in order to work, but the presence of bubbles is a tangible indicator the detergent is present. Soap manufacturers like Procter & Gamble don’t add a “sudsing agent” to soap without good reason: the additional raw materials increase the cost and complexity of production, but increased customer satisfaction makes it a worthwhile investment.
质量信号是一种内置于优惠中的演示形式：它们提供了一个明显的性能指标，因此用户不太可能因缺席盲目或未满足的期望而低估优惠的好处。
Quality Signals are a form of Demonstration that’s built into the offer: they provide a noticeable indicator of performance, so users are less likely to undervalue the benefits of the offer due to Absence Blindness or unmet expectations.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/quality-signals/
吞吐量
Throughput
无论策略多么漂亮，您都应该偶尔看看结果。
However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.
——温斯顿·丘吉尔，二战期间的英国首相
—WINSTON CHURCHILL, PRIME MINISTER OF GREAT BRITAIN DURING WORLD WAR II
吞吐量是系统达到预期目标的速率。通过了解和改进您用来创造和交付您向客户承诺的价值的流程，您可以提高质量和客户满意度。
Throughput is the rate at which a system achieves its desired goal. By understanding and improving the process you use to create and deliver the value you’ve promised to your customers, you can improve quality and customer satisfaction.
吞吐量是衡量价值流有效性的指标。吞吐量以公式 [单位/时间] 衡量。每个时间增量创建的单元越多，吞吐量就越高。
Throughput is a measure of the effectiveness of your Value Stream. Throughput is measured in the formula [units/time]. The more units you create per increment of time, the higher the Throughput.
为了衡量吞吐量，您需要一个明确的目标：
In order to measure Throughput, you need a clear objective:
美元吞吐量衡量您的整体业务系统创造一美元利润的速度。假设一个标准时间单位，例如一小时/天/周/月——您的业务系统在这段时间内平均产生多少美元？您的企业产生美元利润的速度越快越好。
Dollar throughput is a measure of how fast your overall business system creates a dollar of profit. Assume a standard time unit, like an hour/day/week/month—how many dollars does your business system produce on average during that time? The faster your business produces dollars of profit, the better.
生产吞吐量衡量的是创建一个额外的销售单位需要多少时间。从原材料到成品下线需要多长时间？生产吞吐量越快，您可以销售的商品就越多，您就能更快地响应对这些商品的新需求。
Production throughput is a measure of how much time it takes to create an additional unit for sale. How long does it take to go from raw materials to a finished item rolling off the production line? The faster the production throughput, the more items you’ll have available to sell and the faster you’ll be able to respond to new demand for those items.
满意度吞吐量衡量的是创造一个快乐、满意的客户需要多少时间。从顾客进入餐厅到收到订单，像 Chipotle Mexican Grill 这样的“快餐休闲”餐厅大约需要三分钟时间。创造一个满意的客户所需的时间越少，你在一个小时内可以服务的客户就越多，你每天可以创造的客户就越多。客户等待的时间越长，您在一个小时内可以服务的客户就越少，他们对体验的满意度就越低。4个
Satisfaction throughput is a measure of how much time it takes to create a happy, satisfied customer. It takes “fast casual” restaurants like Chipotle Mexican Grill approximately three minutes from the time the customer enters the restaurant to the time they receive their order. The less time that it takes to create a happy customer, the more customers you can serve in an hour and the more happy customers you can create every day. The longer customers have to wait, the fewer customers you can serve in an hour, and the less satisfied they will be with the experience.4
开始增加吞吐量的最佳方法是开始测量它。您的业务系统需要多长时间才能产生一美元利润？生产另一个单位来销售或新的满意客户需要多长时间？
The best way to begin increasing Throughput is to start measuring it. How long does it take for your business system to produce a dollar of profit? How long does it take to produce another unit to sell or a new happy customer?
如果您不知道自己的吞吐量，请优先了解它——测量吞吐量是改进吞吐量的第一步。
If you don’t know your Throughput, make it a priority to find out—measuring Throughput is the first step toward improving it.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/throughput/
复制
Duplication
这个世界的问题只能通过两种方式真正解决：灭绝或复制。
The problems of this world are only truly solved in two ways: by extinction or duplication.
——苏珊·桑塔格，作家和政治活动家
—SUSAN SONTAG, AUTHOR AND POLITICAL ACTIVIST
复制是复制有价值的东西的能力。工厂生产是复制的典型例子：一个设计，许多副本。无需一遍又一遍地重新发明轮子，Duplication 允许您设计一次轮子，然后根据需要制造尽可能多的轮子。
Duplication is the ability to reproduce something of value. Factory production is the quintessential example of Duplication: one design, many copies. Instead of reinventing the wheel over and over again, Duplication allows you to design the wheel once, then make as many of them as you wish.
您复制报价的能力越好，您可以提供的价值就越大。制造某物所花费的时间和精力越多，它的可用性就越低。复制允许您制作报价的副本，以经济高效的方式使其更广泛地可用。
The better your ability to Duplicate your offer, the more value you can provide. The more time and effort it costs to make something, the less available it tends to be. Duplication allows you to make copies of your offer, making it more widely available in a cost-effective way.
想想这本书。在过去，书籍通常是手工复印和装订的。抄写一本书需要花费数月（有时是5年）的全职工作。结果，书籍价格昂贵且难以获得。
Consider this book. In the olden days, books used to be copied and bound by hand. It would take a scribe months (sometimes years5) of full-time work to copy a single book. As a result, books were expensive and difficult to obtain.
时代变了。这本书只写了一次，但借助大型印刷设备的神奇功能，它可以以快速、可靠且廉价的方式进行复制。结果，可以制作数千万份，并在全世界发行，几美元就可以买到。这就是复制的魔力。
How times have changed. This book was written only once, but via the wonder of large-scale printing equipment, it can be reproduced in a fast, reliable, and inexpensive way. As a result, tens of millions of copies can be made and distributed all over the world and can be purchased for a few dollars. That’s the magic of Duplication.
互联网使某些形式的价值的复制变得更加容易。正如凯文·凯利 (Kevin Kelly) 在他的文章“胜于免费” 6中所说，互联网是一台巨大的廉价复印机。当我为我的网站写一篇文章时，我的网络服务器几乎可以免费复制它，并在几毫秒内将其发送给世界另一端的读者。信息的复制——文本、图像、音乐、视频——几乎是免费的。但是，此信息的价值可能非常重要。
The internet has made Duplication of some forms of value even easier. As Kevin Kelly remarked in his essay “Better Than Free,”6 the internet is an enormous, inexpensive copy machine. When I write a post for my website, it can be Duplicated by my web server for next to nothing and delivered to a reader on the other side of the world in a few milliseconds. Duplication of information—text, images, music, video—is close to free. The value of this information, however, can be quite significant.
如果你想创造一些你可以在没有你直接参与的情况下出售的东西，复制你的报价的能力是必不可少的。如果你必须亲自与每一位客户打交道，那么在给定时间内你可以服务的客户数量是有上限的。将复制与自动化相结合，可以让您为更多人创造价值，从而实现更多销售。
If you want to create something that you can sell without your direct involvement, the ability to Duplicate your offer is essential. If you have to be personally involved with every customer, there’s an upper limit on the number of customers you can serve in a given amount of time. Combining Duplication with Automation allows you to deliver value to more people—and close more sales as a result.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/duplication/
乘法
Multiplication
所有的成长都依赖于活动。没有努力就没有身体或智力的发展，而努力意味着工作。
All growth depends upon activity. There is no development physically or intellectually without effort, and effort means work.
——卡尔文·柯立芝，美国第三十任总统
—CALVIN COOLIDGE, THIRTIETH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
麦当劳知道如何复制巨无霸。星巴克知道如何复制三重大豆香草拿铁。这是麦当劳和星巴克的共同点：两家企业都可以复制整个商店，这就是为什么它们在世界各地都有成千上万家商店。
McDonald’s knows how to Duplicate Big Macs. Starbucks knows how to Duplicate triple soy vanilla lattes. Here’s what McDonald’s and Starbucks have in common: both businesses can Duplicate entire stores, which is why there are thousands of each all over the world.
乘法是整个过程或系统的复制。麦当劳最初是加利福尼亚的一家餐厅。星巴克最初是西雅图的一家咖啡店。通过学习复制麦当劳或星巴克商店的整个业务系统，每家公司都开辟了新的增长机会。
Multiplication is Duplication for an entire process or system. McDonald’s began as a single restaurant in California; Starbucks began as a single coffee shop in Seattle. By learning to Duplicate the entire business system that is a McDonald’s or Starbucks store, each company opened new possibilities for growth.
沃尔玛也做了同样的事情。从美国阿肯色州费耶特维尔的一家商店开始，沃尔玛以惊人的速度成倍增长，迅速遍及美国中西部，然后遍及全国，然后遍及全球。
Walmart did the same thing. Starting with a single store in Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA, Walmart Multiplied at an astounding rate, spreading rapidly across the Midwest United States, then across the nation, then around the world.
沃尔玛的成功在于将两个相互关联的系统相乘：商店和配送中心。配送中心 增加从供应商处接收库存并将其运送到商店的能力。商店复制一个经过验证的系统来接收、展示库存并将其销售给付费客户。
Walmart’s success lies in Multiplying two interconnected systems: stores and distribution centers. Distribution centers Multiply the ability to receive inventory from suppliers and deliver it to stores. Stores replicate a proven system of receiving, displaying, and selling that inventory to paying customers.
乘法是小型企业与大型企业的区别。任何单个业务系统可以生产的产品都有上限。通过基于经过验证的模型创建更多相同的业务系统，乘法可以扩展企业为更多客户提供价值的能力。这就是特许经营的主要好处：与其重新发明一种商业模式，不如开设特许经营权有助于使已经行之有效的模式倍增。
Multiplication is what separates small businesses from huge businesses. There’s an upper limit on what any single business system can produce. By creating more identical business systems based on a proven model, Multiplication can expand a business’s ability to deliver value to more customers. That’s the major benefit of franchising: instead of reinventing a business model, opening a franchise helps Multiply a model that already works.
乘以您的业务系统越容易，您可以提供的价值就越大。
The easier it is to Multiply your business system, the more value you can deliver.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/multiplication/
规模
Scale
Ut sementem feceris, ita metes。（种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆。）
Ut sementem feceris, ita metes. (You reap what you sow.)
——马库斯·图利乌斯·西塞罗，公元前一世纪的罗马政治家和演说家
—MARCUS TULLIUS CICERO, FIRST-CENTURY-BCE ROMAN STATESMAN AND ORATOR
想想一个熟练的缝工，他擅长手工制作被子。假设每条被子需要一周的时间来生产，那么每周有一个活跃客户就很好了：为单个客户制作并交付一床被子完全没有问题。
Think of a skilled quilter who specializes in creating quilts by hand. Assuming each quilt takes a week to produce, having one active customer a week is great: creating and delivering a single quilt to a single customer is no problem at all.
同时拥有两个客户是一项挑战：客户 2 必须等到客户 1 得到服务。如果被子制造商在一天内收到一千个订单，那将是一个大问题——如果不让顾客等待，就无法满足需求，这会造成不受欢迎的稀缺程度。
Having two customers at once is challenging: Customer 2 has to wait until Customer 1 is served. If the quilt maker receives a thousand orders in a single day, that’s a huge issue—there’s no way to keep up with the demand without keeping customers waiting, which creates an undesirable level of Scarcity.
规模是随着数量的增加复制或乘以一个过程的能力。可扩展性决定了您的最大潜在容量。复制或乘以所提供的价值越容易，业务的可扩展性就越大。
Scale is the ability to Duplicate or Multiply a process as volume increases. Scalability determines your maximum potential volume. The easier it is to Duplicate or Multiply the value provided, the more scalable the business.
将手工被子业务与星巴克等可扩展业务进行对比。假设平均星巴克有能力每小时提供一百种饮料——任何超过这个的需求，商店就会开始变得拥挤。解决方案？建造另一个星巴克，即使它就在街对面——在纽约这样的城市并不少见。
Contrast the handmade-quilt business with a scalable business like Starbucks. Assume the average Starbucks has the capacity to serve a hundred beverages an hour—any demand above that and the store starts getting overcrowded. The solution? Build another Starbucks, even if it’s right across the street—not an uncommon sight in cities like New York.
可扩展性通常受到流程中所需人员参与量的限制。星巴克能够通过自动化增强其复制拿铁咖啡的能力。星巴克员工参与制作饮料，但过程是半自动化的：一台机器制作浓缩咖啡，许多原料都是提前准备好的，等等。制作一杯好酒所需的人类注意力或干预的总体水平非常低，这就是为什么星巴克每小时可以生产出这么多饮品。
Scalability is often limited by the amount of required human involvement in a process. Starbucks is able to enhance its ability to Duplicate lattes via Automation. Starbucks employees are involved in making drinks, but the process is semiautomated: a machine makes the espresso, many of the ingredients are prepared ahead of time, and so on. The overall level of human attention or intervention that’s required to make a good drink is quite small, which is why Starbucks can crank out so many drinks every hour.
如果您的目标是创建不需要您每天直接参与的业务，那么可扩展性应该是主要考虑因素。产品通常是最容易复制的，而共享资源（如健身房等）最容易复制。
If your goal is to create a business that doesn’t require your direct daily involvement, scalability should be a major consideration. Products are often the easiest to Duplicate, while Shared Resources (like gyms, etc.) are easiest to Multiply.
人类不缩放。个人每天只有那么多的时间和精力，这是一个不会随着要做的工作量而改变的约束。相反——正如我们稍后将讨论的，在绩效负荷中，一个人的效率通常会随着对他们的要求的增加而下降。
Humans don’t Scale. Individual people only have so much time and energy each day, which is a Constraint that doesn’t change with the volume of work to be done. On the contrary—as we’ll discuss later, in Performance Load, a person’s effectiveness usually goes down as the demands on them increase.
因此，服务通常难以扩展，因为它们往往严重依赖人们的直接参与来交付价值。一般来说，创造和交付价值所需的人力参与越少，业务的可扩展性就越大。
As a result, Services are often difficult to Scale, since they tend to rely heavily on the direct involvement of people to deliver value. As a general rule, the less human involvement required to create and deliver value, the more scalable the business.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/scale/
积累
Accumulation
有时候，当我想到小事会带来什么巨大的后果时，我不禁会想：没有小事。
Sometimes when I consider what tremendous consequences come from little things, I am tempted to think: there are no little things.
—BRUCE BARTON，以创建 BETTY CROCKER 品牌而闻名的广告执行官
—BRUCE BARTON, ADVERTISING EXECUTIVE BEST KNOWN FOR CREATING THE BETTY CROCKER BRAND
就在此时，世界上某个地方的一位丰田工程师正在对丰田生产系统——世界上最高效的制造系统之一——做一个非常小的改动。
At this very moment, a Toyota engineer somewhere in the world is making a very small change to the Toyota Production System, one of the most efficient manufacturing systems in the world.
单独来看，这种变化可能看起来并不多——一个小的调整，一个轻微的重组，一点材料或努力的节省。然而，总的来说，影响是巨大的——丰田员工每年对 TPS 实施超过 100 万次改进。难怪丰田现在是世界上最大、最有价值的汽车制造商。7
Alone, the change may not look like much—a small tweak, a slight restructuring, a bit of material or effort saved. Taken together, however, the effects are huge—Toyota employees implement more than one million improvements to the TPS every year. It’s little wonder that Toyota is now the world’s largest and most valuable automotive manufacturer.7
随着时间的推移，小的有益或有害的行为和投入的积累会产生巨大的结果。根据精益思想，James P.Womack 和 Daniel T. Jones 指出，丰田的方法基于日本的改善概念，强调通过许多非常小的变化消除muda （浪费）来持续改进系统。许多小的改进会产生巨大的效果。
Over time, the Accumulation of small helpful or harmful behaviors and inputs produces huge results. According to Lean Thinking, by James P. Womack and Daniel T. Jones, Toyota’s approach is based on the Japanese concept of kaizen, which emphasizes the continual improvement of a system by eliminating muda (waste) via a lot of very small changes. Many small improvements produce huge results.
积累并不总是积极的。想一想如果你十年只吃快餐、糖果和苏打水，你的身体会发生什么。吃一个糖块没什么大不了的，但是吃数百个糖块就很重要了。幸运的是，反之亦然：饮食方面的小改进、多做运动和多睡会随着时间的推移对您的健康产生重大影响。
Accumulation isn’t always positive. Think of what would happen to your body if you consumed nothing but fast food, candy bars, and soda for a decade. Eating a single candy bar isn’t a big deal, but eating hundreds of candy bars is. Fortunately, the opposite is true as well: small improvements in your diet, a little more exercise, and a little more sleep can have major effects on your health over time.
增量增强是积累力量的一个例子。如果您的报价在每个迭代周期中都得到改进，那么用不了多久，您的报价对客户的价值将比以前高很多倍。从长远来看，对您的价值交付流程进行微小的更改可以为您节省大量时间和精力。
Incremental Augmentation is an example of the power of Accumulation. If your offer improves with every Iteration Cycle, it won’t be long before your offer is many times more valuable to your customers than it was before. Small changes to your value-delivery process can save you a ton of time and effort in the long run.
随着时间的推移，你做出的小改进越多，你的结果就越好。
The more small improvements you make over time, the better your results.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/accumulation/
放大
Amplification
在自然界中，既没有奖赏也没有惩罚——只有后果。
In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishment—there are consequences.
——罗伯特·英格索尔，政治领袖和演说家
—ROBERT G. INGERSOLL, POLITICAL LEADER AND ORATOR
想想一罐典型的苏打水。当罐头最初用于销售饮料时，它们是圆柱形、平顶的，由钢制成。随着时间的推移，钢材逐渐被铝材取代，引入了拉环以便更容易打开，并且罐头被“缩颈”——顶部略微变细。
Think of a typical can of soda. When cans were first used to sell beverages, they were cylindrical, flat-topped, and made of steel. Over time, steel was phased out in favor of aluminum, pull tabs were introduced to make opening easier, and the can was “necked”—tapered slightly at the top.
“缩颈”罐头有两个主要影响。首先，它更容易饮用，用户喜欢。其次，它减少了生产结构合理的罐头所需的金属量：典型饮料罐的壁厚现在约为 90 微米（而不是大约 2 毫米），从而节省了大量原材料。
“Necking” a can has two major effects. First, it makes it easier to drink from, which users like. Second, it reduces the amount of metal necessary to produce a structurally sound can: the walls of a typical beverage can are now around ninety micrometers thick (instead of about two millimeters), saving an enormous amount of raw materials.
根据 Can Manufacturers Institute 的数据，美国每年生产约 940 亿个饮料罐。8个 当您将现代罐头设计在数十亿个罐头和几十年中节省的成本相乘时，一些非常小的变化已经为饮料行业节省了数千亿美元。
According to the Can Manufacturers Institute, approximately 94 billion beverage cans are manufactured every year in the United States.8 When you multiply the cost savings of modern can designs across billions of cans and several decades, a few very small changes have saved the beverage industry hundreds of billions of dollars.
这就是放大：对可扩展系统进行微小的更改会产生巨大的结果。任何改进或系统优化的效果都会被系统的规模放大。系统越大，结果越大。
That’s Amplification: making a small change to a scalable system produces a huge result. The effect of any improvement or system optimization is amplified by the size of the system. The larger the system, the larger the result.
当麦当劳推出一款新三明治时，他们不仅限于在其中一家门店销售——他们还可以开始在全球所有门店销售。当星巴克推出一款新饮品时，几乎不需要额外的努力，它就可以在每个星巴克门店提供给顾客。
When McDonald’s comes up with a new sandwich, they’re not limited to just selling it in one of their stores—they can start selling it in all of their stores around the world. When Starbucks comes up with a new drink, it can be made available to customers in every Starbucks location with little additional effort.
识别放大机会的最佳方法是寻找重复或相乘的事物。如果星巴克找到一种使用更少咖啡豆制作浓缩咖啡的方法，那么他们需要购买的咖啡量就会发生巨大变化。如果他们发现一种方法可以在 10 秒而不是 20 秒内制作出浓缩咖啡，这将减少为顾客提供服务所需的时间，并增加一家商店在一小时内可以服务的顾客数量。
The best way to identify Amplification opportunities is to look for things that are Duplicated or Multiplied. If Starbucks found a way to produce a shot of espresso using fewer coffee beans, it would make a huge difference in the amount of coffee they’d need to buy. If they discovered a way to make that espresso shot in ten seconds instead of twenty, it would reduce the time it takes to serve a customer and increase the number of customers a single store could serve in an hour.
可扩展系统放大了小变化的结果。对可扩展系统的小改动会产生巨大的效果。
Scalable systems amplify the results of small changes. Small changes to scalable systems produce massive results.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/amplification/
竞争壁垒
Barrier to Competition
不要与竞争对手竞争——让他们变得无关紧要。
Don’t compete with rivals—make them irrelevant.
-W。CHAN KIM，蓝海战略的作者
—W. CHAN KIM, AUTHOR OF BLUE OCEAN STRATEGY
您对竞争对手的行为给予了多少关注？您在竞争中花费的时间和精力越多，您用于建立业务的时间和精力就越少。
How much attention are you paying to what your competitors are doing? The more time and energy you spend following your competition, the less time and energy you have to build your business.
想一想像 Apple 这样的公司——在科技界，没有哪家公司不那么专注于跟上其他公司所提供的产品。相反，他们专注于构建一些新的和卓越的东西，然后尽可能地完善它。
Think of a company like Apple—there’s no other company in the technology world that focuses less on keeping up with what other companies are providing. Instead, they focus on building something new and Remarkable, then perfecting it as much as possible.
另一方面，Apple 的竞争对手似乎陷入了一种永无止境的境地——结束争先恐后地跟上。Apple 于 2007 年推出 iPhone 后，BlackBerry 争先恐后地创建了 Storm，它复制了许多相同的功能。到 Storm 发布时，iPhone 已经经历了几个迭代周期，这让黑莓很难与之竞争。迄今为止，Apple 已在全球售出数亿部 iPhone，并在此过程中成为全球最有价值的公司之一。相比之下，黑莓在全球移动设备市场的份额现在约为 0%，低于 2009 年 20% 的高位。9
Apple’s competitors, on the other hand, seem to be locked in a never-ending scramble to keep up. After Apple launched the iPhone in 2007, BlackBerry scrambled to create the Storm, which replicated many of the same features. By the time the Storm launched, the iPhone had already gone through several Iteration Cycles, making it very difficult for BlackBerry to compete. To date, Apple has sold hundreds of millions of iPhones worldwide, becoming one of the most valuable companies in the world in the process. In contrast, BlackBerry’s share of the global mobile device market is now approximately 0 percent, down from a high of 20 percent in 2009.9
同样，苹果没有试图在上网本（为便携而设计的小型低功率电脑）领域与华硕、惠普和戴尔等商品笔记本电脑制造商竞争，而是多年来一直避开该市场。2010 年 iPad 推出后，情况发生了变化——重新定义了市场，而不是在功能上与现有的上网本竞争。在成立的头两个月，该公司售出了超过 200 万台。通过选择创新而不是竞争，Apple 成功地在竞争激烈的市场中占据了领导地位。
In the same vein, instead of trying to compete with commodity laptop manufacturers like Asus, HP, and Dell in the category of netbooks (small, low-powered computers designed for portability), Apple avoided the market for years. That changed when the iPad was launched in 2010—an offer that redefined the market instead of competing with preexisting netbooks on features. In the first two months of its existence, the company sold more than two million units. By choosing to innovate instead of compete, Apple successfully captured a leadership share of a very competitive market.
您对价值流所做的每一次改进都会让潜在竞争对手更难跟上，从而形成竞争壁垒。通过提高您以高效和有效的方式创造和交付价值的能力，您可以让竞争对手更难以通过做您正在做的事情来与您竞争。
Every improvement you make to your Value Stream makes it harder for potential competitors to keep up, creating a Barrier to Competition. By increasing your ability to create and deliver value in an efficient and effective way, you make it more difficult for competitors to compete with you by doing what you’re doing.
你提供的每一项好处和你服务的每一位客户都会让竞争对手更难复制你。不要专注于竞争——专注于提供更多价值。您的竞争将自行解决。
Every benefit you deliver and every customer you serve make it harder for competitors to replicate you. Don’t focus on competing—focus on delivering even more value. Your competition will take care of itself.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/barrier-to-competition/
力量倍增器
Force Multiplier
人是使用工具的动物。没有工具他什么都不是，有了工具他就是一切。
Man is a tool-using animal. Without tools he is nothing, with tools he is all.
——托马斯·卡莱尔，十九世纪的散文家和历史学家
—THOMAS CARLYLE, NINETEENTH-CENTURY ESSAYIST AND HISTORIAN
使人类与众不同的一件事是我们创造和使用工具的能力。工具很重要，因为它们可以增加体力、思想或注意力的效果。工具越能放大或集中您的努力，该工具就越有效。
One of the things that make humans unique is our ability to create and use tools. Tools are important because they multiply the effect of physical force, thought, or attention. The more a tool Amplifies or concentrates your effort, the more effective the tool.
如果您尝试徒手敲打钉子，您将能够施加一些力，但不足以将钉子钉入坚固的物体中。（此外，你可能会伤到你的手。）
If you try pounding on a nail with your bare hands, you’ll be able to exert some force, but it won’t be enough to drive the nail into something solid. (Besides, you’ll probably hurt your hand.)
使用锤子可以使您施加的力的大小成倍增加，并将该力集中到一个小区域，从而可以轻松地一次击穿钉子。锯、螺丝刀和其他工具的工作方式相同——它们放大并集中您产生的力量以产生更多输出。
Using a hammer multiplies the magnitude of the force you’re exerting and concentrates that force into a small area, making it easy to drive a nail in a single stroke. Saws, screwdrivers, and other tools work the same way—they amplify and concentrate the force you generate to produce more output.
最有效的工具可以最大程度地放大力量。电锯在倍增力方面远比手锯有效。一辆自卸卡车可以运载的不仅仅是一辆手推车。火箭可以比弹弓发射更远的有效载荷。
The most effective tools amplify force in the greatest magnitude. A power saw is far more effective at multiplying force than a handsaw is. A dump truck can carry more than a wheelbarrow. A rocket can launch a payload farther than a slingshot.
投资力量倍增器是有道理的，因为你可以用同样的努力完成更多的事情。如果您需要挖地基来建造新房子，您可以在当地的五金店购买价值 10 美元的铲子，但反铲可以更快、更轻松地完成这项工作。如果建造房屋是您的事业，那么购买或租赁反铲是值得的。
Investing in Force Multipliers makes sense because you can get more done with the same amount of effort. If you need to dig the foundation to build a new house, a $10 shovel from your local hardware store will work, but a backhoe will get the job done faster and easier. If building homes is your business, buying or leasing a backhoe is worth the cost.
力量倍增器可能很昂贵——它们越有效，往往越昂贵。工厂生产和分销系统是大规模力量倍增器的例子——它们可以在很短的时间内为成千上万（或数百万）的付费客户提供价值。它们可能花费数千（或数百万）美元，但它们可以为您提供否则无法实现的功能。
Force Multipliers can be expensive—the more effective they are, the more expensive they tend to be. Factory production and distribution systems are examples of large-scale Force Multipliers—they make it possible to deliver value to thousands (or millions) of paying customers in a very short time. They may cost thousands (or millions) of dollars, but they can give you capabilities that would otherwise be out of reach.
作为一般规则，在建立系统时利用债务或外部资本的唯一好处是让您可以使用您无法通过任何其他方式访问的力量倍增器。如果您的企业需要装备工厂，您的银行账户中可能没有 1000 万美元。从银行贷款或接受外部投资者的资金可能是您的最佳选择，前提是您使用这些资金购买和维护 Force Multipliers，而不是自己支付或支付豪华办公室的租金。
As a general rule, the only good use of debt or outside capital in setting up a system is to give you access to Force Multipliers you would not be able to access any other way. If your business requires tooling up a factory, you probably don’t have $10 million sitting in your bank account. Taking a Loan from a bank or accepting Capital from an outside investor may be your best option, provided you use those funds to purchase and maintain Force Multipliers, not to pay yourself or maintain rent on a fancy office.
始终选择您可以获得且负担得起的最佳工具。质量工具以最少的输入为您提供最大的输出。通过投资 Force Multipliers，您可以腾出时间、精力和注意力来专注于建立您的业务，而不是运营它。
Always choose the best tools that you can obtain and afford. Quality tools give you maximum output with a minimum of input. By investing in Force Multipliers, you free up your time, energy, and attention to focus on building your business instead of operating it.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/force-multiplier/
系统化
Systemization
如果您不能将您正在做的事情描述为一个过程，那么您就不知道自己在做什么。
If you can’t describe what you are doing as a process, you don’t know what you’re doing.
-W。EDWARDS DEMING，生产管理专家和统计过程控制的先驱
—W. EDWARDS DEMING, PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT EXPERT AND PIONEER OF STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL
假设从 A 点到 B 点需要多个步骤，即使你边走边编造一切，仍然涉及一个过程。通过系统化澄清你的过程而不是“即兴发挥”，可以提供一些主要的好处。
Even if you make everything up as you go along, there is still a process involved, assuming that multiple steps are needed to get from point A to point B. Instead of “winging it,” clarifying your process through Systemization can provide a few major benefits.
系统是一个明确且可重复的过程——一系列以某种方式形式化的步骤。系统可以编写或绘制图表，但它们总是 以某种方式外化。
A system is a process made explicit and repeatable—a series of steps that has been formalized in some way. Systems can be written or diagrammed, but they are always Externalized in some way.
创建系统的主要好处是您可以检查流程并进行改进。通过明确流程中的每个步骤，您可以了解核心流程的工作原理、它们的结构、它们如何影响其他流程和系统，以及您如何随着时间的推移改进系统。
The primary benefit of creating a system is that you can examine the process and make improvements. By making each step in the process explicit, you can understand how the core processes work, how they’re structured, how they affect other processes and systems, and how you can improve the system over time.
谷歌是系统力量的一个很好的例子。每次您使用 Google 搜索引擎时，都会有数以千计的计算机开始行动以提供您的结果。谷歌的搜索算法（系统的一个花哨的编程词）定义了这些计算机如何协同工作，谷歌员工改进了系统工作方式的细节。每年，Google 工程师都会对主要搜索引擎算法进行数以千计的改进，10使其能够更好地为您指出您正在寻找的内容。
Google is a great example of the power of systems. Every time you use the Google search engine, thousands of computers spring into action to deliver your results. Google’s search algorithm (a fancy programming word for system) defines how these computers work together, and Google employees refine the details of how the system works. Each year, Google engineers make thousands of improvements to the primary search engine algorithm,10 making it better able to point you to what you’re looking for.
结果，Google 算法变得非常高效，您的搜索结果在大约 0.2 秒内返回，零人工干预——这是一个惊人的成就。如果谷歌没有将早期的大部分时间和精力用于定义和系统化搜索流程，公司就不会存在。
As a result, the Google algorithm has become so efficient that your search results are returned in approximately 0.2 seconds with zero human intervention—an astounding achievement. If Google hadn’t spent most of their early time and energy defining and systemizing the search process, the company wouldn’t exist.
系统还可以帮助团队成员保持一致。正如我们将在第 8 章中讨论的那样，沟通对于人们更好地合作是必不可少的，与你一起工作的人越多，你需要的沟通就越多。为某些事件开发系统和清晰的流程任务可以帮助每个人以最少的误解和大惊小怪来做必须做的事情。
Systems also help teams of people stay on the same page. As we’ll discuss in chapter 8, communication is necessary for people to work well together, and the more people you’re working with, the more communication you need. Developing systems and clear processes for certain events and tasks can help everyone do what must be done with a minimum of misunderstanding and fuss.
如果您不能将您的流程系统化，您就无法将其自动化。想象一下，如果谷歌依靠图书馆员团队来生成搜索结果会是什么样子。这将是一场噩梦——您需要等待数天（或数周或数月）才能获得结果。
If you can’t systematize your process, you can’t automate it. Imagine what it would be like if Google relied on a team of human librarians to generate search results. It’d be a nightmare—you’d wait days (or weeks, or months) to get your results.
Google 质量和速度的关键是自动化：通过定义系统运行方式的规则，搜索引擎程序员能够使系统的日常运行自动化。因此，Google 开发人员可以自由地将精力集中在不断改进系统上，而不是集中在操作系统上。
The key to Google’s quality and speed is Automation: by defining the rules of how the system operates, the search-engine programmers are able to automate the day-to-day operation of the system. As a result, Google developers are free to focus their efforts on continually improving the system instead of on operating the system.
大多数人拒绝创建业务系统，因为这感觉像是额外的工作。我们都很忙，很容易觉得您没有时间创建和改进系统，因为已经有太多工作要做。有用的系统使您的工作更轻松——如果您感到超负荷，解决问题的最佳方法就是花时间创建良好的系统。
Most people resist creating business systems because it feels like extra work. We’re all busy, and it’s easy to feel like you don’t have time to create and improve systems because there’s already too much work to do. Useful systems make your work easier—if you’re feeling overloaded, the best thing you can do to solve the issue is spend time creating good systems.
系统化和自动化有一些主要缺点，我们将在第 10 章和第 11 章中详细探讨。现在，要认识到有效的系统是企业的命脉——它们允许您创造、营销、销售和交付您想要的东西不得不提供。
Systemization and Automation have a few major drawbacks, which we’ll explore in detail in chapters 10 and 11. For now, recognize that effective systems are the lifeblood of a business—they allow you to create, market, sell, and deliver what you have to offer.
您的系统越好，您的业务就越好。
The better your systems, the better your business.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/systemization/
分流
Triage
聪明的艺术就是知道要忽视什么的艺术。
The art of being wise is the art of knowing what to overlook.
——威廉·詹姆斯，19 世纪的医生和先驱心理学家
—WILLIAM JAMES, NINETEENTH-CENTURY DOCTOR AND PIONEERING PSYCHOLOGIST
几年前，我在凌晨 2:00 发现自己在纽约市西奈山医院的急诊室，腹部剧痛。我一到，一位护士就看到了我，详细记录了我的症状，然后带我去了等候区。
A few years ago, I found myself in the emergency room of Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City at 2:00 in the morning, suffering from extreme abdominal pain. As soon as I arrived, a nurse saw me, took detailed notes on my symptoms, then directed me to the waiting area.
我等了三个小时才看到值班医生。那是一件好事。
I waited three hours to see the doctor on call. That was a good thing.
分类是识别和处理最重要的过程事情放在第一位，让不那么紧急的事情等待。医院急诊室配备了处理各种疾病的设备，从微不足道到危及生命。能够提供护理的医生和护士数量有限，在最严重的情况下，分秒必争。分诊护士的首要任务是确定谁需要立即护理，谁有能力等待。
Triage is the process of identifying and handling the most important matters first, allowing less urgent matters to wait. Hospital emergency rooms are equipped to deal with a wide variety of ailments, ranging from trivial to life-threatening. There are a limited number of doctors and nurses available to provide care, and in the most severe cases, seconds matter. The first task of the triage nurse is to identify who needs care right away and who can afford to wait.
就我而言，一开始莫名其妙的胃痛很厉害，但到医院时已经好转，没有任何需要重症监护的迹象。当值班医生有能力看我时，我的症状已经消失，一些快速测试证实没有任何紧急或危急情况。在我等待的过程中，医生和护士已经照顾了数十名需要立即处理的严重问题的患者。
In my case, the mystery stomach pain was extreme at the beginning, but it was already improving by the time I arrived at the hospital, and I wasn’t exhibiting any of the signs of someone who needed critical care. By the time the doctor on call had capacity to see me, my symptoms had resolved, and a few quick tests confirmed there was nothing urgent or critical. While I waited, the doctors and nurses had tended to dozens of patients with severe issues that required immediate attention.
分类作为一种策略，不仅仅适用于医疗保健。并非待办事项列表中的每项任务都具有相同的影响：有些任务比其他任务更重要、更有价值；有些是时间敏感的，有些则不是。分类可以帮助您专注于最重要的任务，而不会因为让不太重要的任务溜走而感到难过。
Triage, as a strategy, applies to much more than medical care. Not every task on your to-do list has the same impact: some tasks are more important and valuable than others; some are time sensitive, while others are not. Triage can help you focus on your Most Important Tasks and not feel bad about letting less important tasks slip.
同样的想法适用于大多数业务系统。大多数企业都有某种客户支持队列，有些请求比其他请求更紧急或更重要。如果您有一个遇到问题的大型长期客户，那么在回复具有小型免费试用帐户的人之前优先解决他们的问题既合理又明智。
The same idea applies to most business systems. Most businesses have some sort of customer-support queue, and some requests are more urgent or important than others. If you have a large, long-term client who is experiencing issues, it is both rational and wise to prioritize resolving their problem before responding to someone with a small free trial account.
您进行分类的能力取决于您收集与情况相关的信息的能力。为每个上下文创建定义的优先级层次结构通常很有帮助，然后自定义您提出的问题以确保您拥有对每个案例进行分类所需的相关信息。
Your ability to Triage relies on your ability to collect information relevant to the situation. It’s often helpful to create a defined hierarchy of priority for each context, then customize the questions you ask to ensure you have the relevant information needed to categorize each case.
在商业环境中，这种技术通常被称为“线索评分”。定义指标，例如每个潜在客户的实力、客户的预计生命周期价值或每个传入请求的紧迫性和重要性，可帮助您系统化支持流程，以便您可以首先处理最重要的案例。
In a business context, this technique is often referred to as “lead scoring.” Defining metrics like the strength of each prospect, the projected Lifetime Value of a customer, or the urgency and importance of each incoming request helps you Systematize the support process so you can handle the most important cases first.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/triage/
5个
5
金融
FINANCE
他听过人们轻蔑地谈论金钱：他想知道他们是否曾经尝试过没有它。
He had heard people speak contemptuously of money: he wondered if they had ever tried to do without it.
-W。萨默塞特·毛姆，关于人类的束缚
—W. SOMERSET MAUGHAM, OF HUMAN BONDAGE
根据我的经验，人们喜欢学习价值创造、营销、销售和价值交付——它们很容易理解和形象化。
In my experience, people enjoy learning about value creation, marketing, sales, and value delivery—they’re easy to understand and visualize.
然而，在谈到金融时，目光呆滞。财务让人联想到“数豆子”、数学公式和充满数字的电子表格的图像。不一定非要这样——如果你专注于最重要的事情，金融是很容易理解的。
When it comes to finance, however, eyes glaze over. Finance conjures up images of “bean counting,” mathematical formulas, and spreadsheets overflowing with numbers. It doesn’t have to be that way—finance is quite easy to understand if you focus on what’s most important.
金融是一门艺术和科学，它观察流入和流出企业的资金，然后决定如何分配资金并确定您所做的事情是否产生了您想要的结果。会计是确保您用于做出财务决策的数据尽可能完整和准确的过程。没有比这更复杂的了。是的，可能会有花哨的模型和行话，但最终，您是在使用数字来决定您的业务是否按照预期的方式运营以及结果是否足够。
Finance is the art and science of watching the money flowing into and out of a business, then deciding how to allocate it and determining whether or not what you’re doing is producing the results you want. Accounting is the process of ensuring the data you use to make financial decisions is as complete and accurate as possible. It’s not any more complicated than that. Yes, there can be fancy models and jargon, but in the end, you’re using numbers to decide whether or not your business is operating the way you intended and whether or not the results are enough.
每个成功的企业都必须带来一定数量的资金才能继续经营。如果您正在创造、营销、销售和交付价值，那么每天都会有资金流入和流出企业。为了继续存在，每家企业都必须带来足够的收入，以证明为运营所投入的所有时间和精力是值得的。
Every successful business must bring in a certain amount of money to keep going. If you’re creating, marketing, selling, and delivering value, there’s money flowing into and out of the business every day. In order to continue to exist, every business must bring in sufficient revenue to justify all of the time and effort that goes into running the operation.
每个人都有账单要付，杂货要买，所以相关人员在业务中需要赚到足够的钱来证明他们投入的时间和精力是合理的，否则他们会辞职去做其他事情。每个企业都必须从其创造的价值中获取一定数量的收入作为收入，用于支付费用和补偿经营企业的人员。
Everyone has bills to pay and groceries to buy, so the people involved in the business need to make enough money to justify the time and energy they’re investing, or they’ll quit and do something else. Every business must capture some amount of the value it creates as revenue, which is used to pay expenses and compensate the people who make the business run.
最好的企业创造了一个良性循环：他们创造了大量的价值，同时保持较低的开支，因此他们赚到的钱足以维持经营，而不会获取太多价值。因此，他们能够在充实自己的钱包的同时改善客户的生活，因为企业的持续存在让每个参与其中的人都过得更好。
The very best businesses create a virtuous cycle: they create huge amounts of value while keeping their expenses low, so they make more than enough money to keep going without capturing too much value. As a result, they’re able to simultaneously pad their pocketbooks and improve the lives of their customers, since the continued existence of the business makes everyone involved better off.
金融可以帮助您以一种有意义的方式看待您的美元。
Finance helps you watch your dollars in a way that makes sense.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/finance/
利润
Profit
提醒人们利润是收入和支出之间的差额。这让你看起来很聪明。
Remind people that profit is the difference between revenue and expense. This makes you look smart.
—斯科特·亚当斯，漫画家和呆伯特的创造者
—SCOTT ADAMS, CARTOONIST AND CREATOR OF DILBERT
如果您花费 100,000,001 美元，您的企业是否每年带来 100,000,000 美元的收入并不重要。商业不在于你制造什么，而在于你保留什么。
It doesn’t matter if your business brings in $100,000,000 a year in revenue if you spend $100,000,001. Business is not about what you make—it’s about what you keep.
利润是一个非常简单的概念：它带来的钱比你花的多。为了让企业继续存在，它收取的总收入必须超过它在可预见的未来某个时刻积累的总支出。否则，它将不再是一项业务——该业务将耗尽资源并关闭，或者它将成为一个由另一项业务的利润补贴的项目。没有什么可以永远亏本经营。
Profit is a very simple concept: it’s bringing in more money than you spend. In order for a business to continue to exist, the total revenue it collects must exceed the total expenses it accumulates at some point in the foreseeable future. If it doesn’t, it’ll cease to be a business—the operation will run out of resources and close, or it’ll become a project subsidized by the Profits of another business. Nothing can operate at a loss forever.
利润很重要，因为它可以让企业继续运营。如果不产生利润，企业就无法补偿其所有者，他们可能会在运营中投入大量时间、金钱和精力。如果业主认为他们的投资不值得，他们将关闭企业。
Profit is important because it allows businesses to stay in operation. Without generating Profits, a business can’t compensate its owners, who may be investing considerable time, money, and energy into the operation. If the owners don’t find their investment worthwhile, they’ll close the business.
利润还提供缓冲，使企业能够抵御意外事件。如果一家企业几乎没有产生足够的收入来支付其支出，而这些支出突然上升，那么该企业就处于一个很好的状态处理麻烦。企业的利润越高，就越能更好地应对不确定性和变化，应对不可预见的事情的选择也就越多。
Profit also provides a cushion that allows the business to weather unexpected events. If a business is barely generating enough revenue to cover its expenses, and those expenses suddenly rise, the business is in a great deal of trouble. The more profitable the business, the better it will be able to handle Uncertainty and Change, and the more options it has to respond to the unforeseeable.
利润是一个非常重要的考虑因素，但它并不是业务的全部和最终目的。有些人认为企业的目的是最大化产生的利润，但这并不是创建企业的唯一原因。对于某些人（比如我）来说，商业更像是一种创造性的努力——一种探索可能性、帮助他人并同时支持自己的方式。从这个角度来看，只要您赚取了足够的利润，您的企业就会继续取得成功。
Profit is a very important consideration, but it’s not the be-all and end-all of business. Some people believe that the purpose of a business is to maximize the amount of Profit generated, but that’s not the only reason businesses are created. For some people (like me), business is more of a creative endeavor—a way to explore what’s possible, help others, and support yourself at the same time. From this perspective, as long as you’re making enough Profit, your business will continue to be successful.
您将在本章中学习的概念将帮助您确保您的企业创造足够的利润以维持运营。
The concepts you’ll learn in this chapter will help you ensure that your business creates enough Profit to keep going.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/profit/
利润率
Profit Margin
我从来没有因为盈利而亏本。
I never lost money by turning a profit.
——伯纳德·巴鲁克，金融家和慈善家
—BERNARD BARUCH, FINANCIER AND PHILANTHROPIST
利润率（通常缩写为“保证金”）是您获取的收入与获取收入的支出之间的差值，以百分比表示。这是利润率的公式：
Profit Margin (often abbreviated to “margin”) is the difference between how much revenue you capture and how much you spend to capture it, expressed in percentage terms. Here’s the formula for Profit Margin:
((收入 − 成本) / 收入) × 100 = % 利润率
((Revenue − Cost) / Revenue) × 100 = % Profit Margin
如果你花 1 美元得到 2 美元，那就是 50% 的利润率。如果您能够以 100 美元的价格制造产品并以 150 美元的价格出售，则利润为 50 美元，利润率为 33%。如果您能够以 300 美元的价格销售相同的产品，则利润率为 66%。价格越高，成本越低，利润率就越高。在任何情况下，您的利润率都永远不会超过 100%，这只有在您能够卖掉不花一分钱的东西时才会发生。
If you spend $1 to get $2, that’s a 50 percent Profit Margin. If you’re able to create a Product for $100 and sell it for $150, that’s a Profit of $50 and a Profit Margin of 33 percent. If you’re able to sell the same Product for $300, that’s a margin of 66 percent. The higher the price and the lower the cost, the higher the Profit Margin. In any case, your Profit Margin can never exceed 100 percent, which only happens if you’re able to sell something that cost you nothing.
利润率与“加价”不同，“加价”表示报价的价格与其总成本的比较。这是标记的公式：
Profit Margin is not the same as “markup,” which represents how the price of an offer compares to its total cost. Here’s the formula for markup:
((价格 − 成本) / 成本) × 100 = 加价百分比
((Price − Cost) / Cost) × 100 = % Markup
如果报价成本为 1 美元，而您以 2 美元的价格出售，则您的加价率为 100%，但您的利润率仅为 50%。利润永远不能超过 100%，但加价可以是 200%、500% 或 10,000%，具体取决于报价的价格和总成本。你的价格越高，你的成本越低，你的加价就越高。
If the cost of an offer is $1 and you sell it for $2, your markup is 100 percent, but your Profit Margin is only 50 percent. Margins can never be more than 100 percent, but markups can be 200 percent, 500 percent, or 10,000 percent, depending on the price and the total cost of the offer. The higher your price and the lower your cost, the higher your markup.
大多数企业都试图将每个报价的利润率保持在尽可能高的水平，这是有道理的：利润率越高，企业从每次销售中获得的资金就越多。无论如何，随着时间的推移，有许多市场压力会导致利润率下降：竞争对手激进的定价、新产品减少对旧产品的需求，以及投入成本上升。
Most businesses try to keep each offer’s Profit Margin as high as possible, which makes sense: the higher the margin, the more money the business gets to keep from each sale. Regardless, there are many market pressures that can lead to a decline in margins over time: aggressive pricing by competitors, new offers that decrease demand for older offers, and rising input costs.
企业经常使用利润率作为比较报价的一种方式。如果一家公司在市场上有多个报价，它往往会青睐利润率最高的报价。如果企业需要削减成本，通常会从取消利润最低的报价开始。
Businesses often use Profit Margin as a way of comparing offers. If a company has more than one offer in the market, it tends to favor the offers with the highest margins. If a business needs to cut costs, it often starts by eliminating offers with the lowest margins.
检查企业时，请密切注意利润率。利润率越高，业务越强大。
When examining a business, pay close attention to Profit Margin. The higher the margin, the stronger the business.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/profit-margin/
价值捕捉
Value Capture
如果你帮助足够多的人得到他们想要的东西，你可以在这一生中得到任何你想要的东西。
You can get anything you want in this life if you help enough other people get what they want.
—ZIG ZIGLAR，著名的销售培训师和演讲者
—ZIG ZIGLAR, RENOWNED SALES TRAINER AND SPEAKER
每个企业都必须将其以收入形式创造的价值的一定比例作为利润获取。否则，随着时间的推移，企业将难以产生足够的资源来继续运营。
Every business must capture some percentage of the value it creates in the form of revenue as Profit. If it doesn’t, the business will have a difficult time generating enough resources over time to continue operation.
价值捕获是保留每个交易中提供的价值的一定百分比的过程。如果您能够为另一家企业提供一些东西，使其能够带来 100 万美元的额外收入，并且您收取 100,000 美元，那么您将获得交易创造的价值的 10%。
Value Capture is the process of retaining some percentage of the value provided in every Transaction. If you’re able to offer another business something that will allow it to bring in $1 million of additional revenue, and you charge $100,000, you’re capturing 10 percent of the value created by the Transaction.
价值捕获是棘手的。为了成功，您需要获取足够的价值，让您的时间和精力投资物有所值，但是并不是说您的客户没有理由与您做生意。人们购买是因为他们相信他们在交易中获得的价值比他们花费的要多。
Value Capture is tricky. In order to be successful, you need to capture enough value to make your investment of time and energy worthwhile, but not so much that there’s no reason for your customers to do business with you. People buy because they believe they’re getting more value in the Transaction than they’re spending.
您捕获的价值越多，您的报价就越不吸引人。捕获太多，您的潜在客户就不会向您购买。电影很棒，但是您愿意为两个小时的娱乐活动支付 5,000 美元吗？
The more value you capture, the less attractive your offer becomes. Capture too much and your prospects won’t bother purchasing from you. Movies are great, but would you pay $5,000 for two hours of entertainment?
价值捕获背后有两个主要的哲学：最大化和最小化。
There are two dominant philosophies behind Value Capture: maximization and minimization.
最大化（大多数商学院教授的方法）意味着企业应该尝试获取尽可能多的价值——获取的价值少于可能的最大价值是不可接受的，选择将价值“搁置”被视为失职使命的。
Maximization (the approach taught in most business schools) means that a business should attempt to capture as much value as possible—capturing less than the maximum amount of value possible is unacceptable, and choosing to leave value “on the table” is considered a dereliction of duty.
从短期来看，很容易看出最大化的吸引力——更多的利润对公司所有者来说是一件好事。但最大化方法往往会削弱客户最初从企业购买的原因。
In the short run, it’s easy to see the appeal of maximization—more Profit is a good thing for the owners of a company. But the maximization approach tends to erode the reason customers purchase from a business in the first place.
你会花 999,999 美元赚 100 万美元吗？这可能是合理的（毕竟，你会领先 1 美元），但大多数人不会理会。客户向您购买是因为他们获得的价值高于他们在购买中放弃的价值。他们收到的越少，他们就越不想从你这里购买。
Would you spend $999,999 in order to make $1 million? It may be rational (after all, you’d be $1 ahead), but most people won’t bother. Customers purchase from you because they’re receiving more value than they’re giving up in the purchase. The less they receive, the less they’ll want to buy from you.
最小化方法意味着只要企业保持Sufficiency，企业就应该获取尽可能少的价值。虽然这种方法可能不会像最大化那样带来那么多的短期收入，但它保留了客户在与公司做生意时看到的价值，这对于企业的长期成功是必要的。
The minimization approach means that businesses should capture as little value as possible, as long as the business maintains Sufficiency. While this approach may not bring in as much short-term revenue as maximization, it preserves the value customers see in doing business with the company, which is necessary for the business’s long-term success.
当某件东西很划算时，客户往往会继续光顾该企业并将其传播给其他潜在客户。当一家企业试图通过压榨客户或试图获取过多价值来最大化收入时，客户就会逃离。
When something is a good deal, customers tend to continue to patronize the business and spread the word to other potential customers. When a business tries to maximize revenue by nickel-and-diming its customers or trying to capture too much value, customers flee.
只要你带来足够的收入来继续做你正在做的事情，就没有必要为最后一分钱而战。尽可能多地创造价值，然后捕获足够多的价值，使其值得继续运营。
As long as you’re bringing in enough to keep doing what you’re doing, there’s no need to fight for every last penny. Create as much value as you can, then capture enough of that value to make it worthwhile to keep operating.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/value-capture/
充足
Sufficiency
知足则无辱；知道什么时候停下来，你就不会遇到危险。然后你就可以忍了。
Know contentment and you will suffer no disgrace; know when to stop and you will meet with no danger. You can then endure.
—老子，公元前六世纪的中国哲学家
—LAO TZU, SIXTH-CENTURY-BCE CHINESE PHILOSOPHER
有一次，一位有权有势的高管去度假——这是他十五年来的第一次。当他正在一个沿海小渔村的码头探索时，一位金枪鱼渔夫停靠了他的船。当渔夫把他的船绑在码头上时，这位主管称赞他的鱼的大小和质量。
Once, a powerful executive went on vacation—his first in fifteen years. As he was exploring a pier in a small coastal fishing village, a tuna fisherman docked his boat. As the fisherman lashed his boat to the pier, the executive complimented him on the size and quality of his fish.
“你钓到这些鱼用了多长时间？” 执行官问道。
“How long did it take you to catch these fish?” the executive asked.
“就一会儿，”渔夫回答。
“Only a little while,” the fisherman replied.
“你为什么不在外面多呆一会儿，抓更多的鱼？” 执行官问道。
“Why don’t you stay out longer and catch more?” the executive asked.
“我有足够的钱养家糊口，”渔夫说。
“I have enough to support my family’s needs,” said the fisherman.
“但是，”主管问道，“你剩下的时间都用来干什么？”
“But,” asked the executive, “what do you do with the rest of your time?”
渔夫回答说：“我晚睡，打鱼，陪孩子玩，陪老婆睡午觉，每天傍晚到村子里逛逛，和朋友喝酒弹吉他。我的生活充实而忙碌。”
The fisherman replied, “I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take a siesta with my wife, and stroll into the village each evening, where I sip wine and play guitar with my friends. I have a full and busy life.”
执行官目瞪口呆。“我是哈佛大学的 MBA，我可以帮助你。你应该花更多的时间钓鱼。有了收益，你可以买一艘更大的船。一艘更大的船会帮助你捕到更多的鱼，你可以卖掉这些鱼来买几艘船。最终，您将拥有整个舰队。
The executive was flabbergasted. “I’m a Harvard MBA and I can help you. You should spend more time fishing. With the proceeds, you could buy a bigger boat. A bigger boat would help you catch more fish, which you could sell to buy several boats. Eventually, you’d own an entire fleet.
“与其将渔获物卖给中间商，不如直接卖给消费者，这样可以提高利润率。最终，你可以开设自己的工厂，这样你就可以控制产品、加工和分销。当然，你必须离开这个村庄搬到城里，这样你才能经营你不断扩大的企业。”
“Instead of selling your catch to a middleman, you could sell direct to the consumer, which would improve your margins. Eventually, you could open your own factory, so you’d control the product, the processing, and the distribution. Of course, you’d have to leave this village and move to the city so you could run your expanding enterprise.”
渔夫沉默片刻，问道：“这需要多长时间？”
The fisherman was quiet for a moment, then asked, “How long would this take?”
“十五、二十年。二十五，顶。
“Fifteen, twenty years. Twenty-five, tops.”
“然后呢？”
“Then what?”
执行官笑了。“那是最好的部分。当时机成熟时，您可以将公司公开并出售所有股票。你会赚到数百万美元。”
The executive laughed. “That’s the best part. When the time is right, you’d take your company public and sell all of your stock. You’d make millions.”
“百万？那我怎么办？
“Millions? What would I do then?”
执行官停顿了一下。“你可以退休，晚睡，钓鱼little，和你的孩子一起玩，和你的妻子一起午睡，每天晚上漫步到村子里，和你的朋友一起喝葡萄酒，弹吉他。”
The executive paused for a moment. “You could retire, sleep late, fish a little, play with your children, take a siesta with your wife, and stroll into the village each evening to sip wine and play guitar with your friends.”
这位主管摇了摇头，向渔夫告别。休假归来后，这位高管辞去了他的职务。
Shaking his head, the executive bade the fisherman farewell. After returning from vacation, the executive resigned from his position.
我不确定这个寓言起源于何处，但信息很有用：业务不一定与利润最大化有关。利润很重要，但它们是达到目的的一种手段：创造价值、支付费用、补偿经营企业的人员以及养活自己和亲人。金钱本身并不是目的：金钱是一种工具，而该工具的用处取决于您打算用它做什么。
I’m not sure where this parable originated, but the message is useful: business is not necessarily about maximizing Profits. Profits are important, but they’re a means to an end: creating value, paying expenses, compensating the people who run the business, and supporting yourself and your loved ones. Dollars aren’t an end in themselves: money is a tool, and the usefulness of that tool depends on what you intend to do with it.
您的企业不一定要带来数百万或数十亿美元的收入才能取得成功。如果您有足够的利润来做您需要做的事情以保持业务运行并让它值得您花时间，那么无论您的业务带来多少收入，您都会成功。
Your business does not have to bring in millions or billions of dollars to be successful. If you have enough Profit to do the things you need to do to keep the business running and make it worth your time, you’re successful, no matter how much revenue your business brings in.
充足性是企业带来足够利润的点，经营企业的人认为在可预见的未来继续前进是值得的。Y Combinator（一家早期风险投资公司）的风险投资家和联合创始人保罗格雷厄姆将充足的点称为“拉面有利可图” - 盈利足以支付租金，保持公用事业运转，并购买像拉面这样的廉价食品. 你可能赚不到数百万美元，但你有足够的收入来继续建设你的企业而不至于倒闭。
Sufficiency is the point where a business is bringing in enough Profit that the people who are running the business find it worthwhile to keep going for the foreseeable future. Paul Graham, venture capitalist and cofounder of Y Combinator (an early-stage venture capital firm), calls the point of Sufficiency “ramen profitable”—being profitable enough to pay your rent, keep the utilities running, and buy inexpensive food like ramen noodles. You may not be raking in millions of dollars, but you have enough revenue to keep building your venture without going under.
如果你不能支付账单，你就不能创造价值。如果您没有带来足够的收入来支付运营费用，那就是一个主要问题。为了继续前进，您必须能够支付员工和所有者为企业付出的时间、努力和关注。如果这些人认为他们的投资没有足够的价值，他们就会停止他们正在做的事情并开始做其他事情。
You can’t create value if you can’t pay the bills. If you’re not bringing in sufficient revenue to cover the operating expenses, that’s a major issue. In order to keep going, you must be able to pay the employees and the owners for the time, effort, and attention they’re giving to the venture. If these people don’t find their investment sufficiently worthwhile, they’ll stop doing what they’re doing and start doing something else.
您可以使用称为“目标月收入”(TMR) 的数字来跟踪财务充足性。由于员工、承包商和供应商通常按月支付，因此计算您每月需要支付的金额相对简单。您的目标月收入可帮助您确定是否达到了充足点：只要您带来的收入超过 TMR，您就达到了充足点。如果没有，你还有工作要做。
You can track financial Sufficiency using a number called “target monthly revenue” (TMR). Since employees, contractors, and vendors are usually paid on a monthly basis, it’s relatively simple to calculate how much money you’ll need to pay out each month. Your target monthly revenue helps you determine whether or not you’ve reached the point of Sufficiency: as long as you bring in more than your TMR, you’ve reached Sufficiency. If not, you have work to do.
充足是主观的——由你决定多少才足够让您的时间和精力值得。如果您的财务需求微薄，您就不需要那么多收入来维持运营。如果您在工资单、办公空间和昂贵的系统上花费数百万美元，您将需要更多的收入来维持 Sufficiency。
Sufficiency is subjective—it’s up to you to decide how much is enough to make your time and effort worthwhile. If your financial needs are meager, you don’t need that much revenue to keep going. If you’re spending millions of dollars on payroll, office space, and expensive systems, you’ll need much more revenue to maintain Sufficiency.
您越快达到 Sufficiency 点，您的企业生存和繁荣的机会就越大。你产生的收入越多，花的钱越少，你就会越快达到自给自足的程度。
The faster you can reach the point of Sufficiency, the better the chance your business will survive and thrive. The more revenue you generate and the less money you spend, the quicker you’ll reach the point of Sufficiency.
一旦你达到了充足的程度，你就成功了——不管你赚了多少（或多少）钱。
Once you reach the point of Sufficiency, you’re successful—no matter how much (or how little) money you make.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/sufficiency/
估值
Valuation
一毛钱的全部价值在于知道如何处理它。
The whole value of the dime is knowing what to do with it.
——拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生，十九世纪散文家和诗人
—RALPH WALDO EMERSON, NINETEENTH-CENTURY ESSAYIST AND POET
我们已经讨论了如何估算报价的价值，但是您如何计算一家公司的价值呢？
We’ve talked about how to estimate the value of an offer, but how do you calculate the worth of a company?
估值是对公司总价值的估计。企业的收入越高，公司的利润率就越高，银行存款就越高，未来越有希望，其估值就越高。
Valuation is an estimate of the total worth of a company. The higher a business’s revenues, the stronger the company’s Profit Margins, the higher its bank balance, and the more promising its future, the higher its Valuation.
许多公司的财务决策基于什么会增加企业的估值。出于许多原因，较高的价值估计是有益的。如果一家公司是私人的，那么估值高会让借钱变得更容易。如果公司是上市公司，高估值会导致高股价和股东获利机会。如果另一家企业寻求收购该公司，那么高估值会给企业所有者或股东带来丰厚的回报。
Many companies base their financial decisions on what will increase the business’s Valuation. Higher estimates of value are beneficial for many reasons. If a company is private, having a high Valuation makes it easier to borrow money. If the company is public, a high Valuation leads to a high share price and a profit opportunity for the shareholders. If another business seeks to acquire the company, a high Valuation leads to a big payday for the business’s owners or shareholders.
如果您打算接受投资者，估值也很重要。您筹集的资金数额，以及您作为交换提供给投资者的所有权总额，取决于企业在投资时的估值。企业的估值越高，您向投资者出售的每一股股票就能获得越多的资金。1个
Valuation is also important if you intend to take on investors. The amount of Capital you raise, as well as the total amount of ownership you give to your investors in exchange, depends on the business’s Valuation at the time of investment. The higher the business’s Valuation, the more money you’ll be able to command for every share you sell to the investor.1
重要的是要注意感知价值同样适用于企业和个人报价。当人们相信一家公司有光明的时候未来展望，公司估值上升。如果人们认为公司陷入困境，估值就会下降。这种动态解释了为什么一些公司，如亚马逊，其股价是公司最新每股收益报告的一百倍以上，而陷入困境的公司有时以低于其当前资产清算价值的价格出售。
It’s important to note that Perceived Value applies just as much to businesses as it does to individual offers. When people believe a company has bright future prospects, the company’s Valuation increases. If people believe the company is in trouble, the Valuation decreases. This dynamic explains why some companies, like Amazon, have share prices of more than one hundred times the company’s most recent earnings per share report, while troubled companies sometimes sell for less than the liquidation value of their current assets.
如果您打算将公司的股票出售给投资者或正在为未来的收购定位您的业务，估值是一个重要的考虑因素。如果您拥有自己的企业并且从不打算出售它，那么估值因素就变得不那么重要了。如果您是一家上市公司的高管，正在建立一家您希望某天出售的企业，或者将您的资本投资于一家公司，估值可能每天都在您的脑海中。
Valuation is important to consider if you intend to sell shares of the company to investors or are positioning your business for future acquisition. If you own your own business and never intend to sell it, Valuation considerations become less important. If you’re an executive of a public company, building a business you’d like to sell someday, or investing your capital in a company, Valuation may be on the top of your mind every day.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/valuation/
现金流量表
Cash Flow Statement
缺钱是万恶之源。
Lack of money is the root of all evil.
——马克吐温，伟大的美国小说家
—MARK TWAIN, GREAT AMERICAN NOVELIST
为了了解一家公司的业绩如何，查看跟踪企业业绩的财务报告是很有用的。你应该从哪里开始？
In order to understand how well a company is performing, it’s useful to look at financial reports that track the business’s performance. Where should you begin?
我建议从现金流量表开始。稍后我们将研究其他基本类型的财务报表，但研究现金流量表是最好的开始。
I recommend starting with the Cash Flow Statement. We’ll examine the other basic types of financial statements in a moment, but examining the Cash Flow Statement is the best place to begin.
现金流量表很简单：它是对公司在一定时期内银行账户的检查。把它想象成支票账户分类账：现金流入的存款和现金流出的提取。理想情况下，流入的资金多于流出的资金，并且总额永远不会低于零。
The Cash Flow Statement is straightforward: it’s an examination of a company’s bank account over a certain period of time. Think of it like a checking-account ledger: deposits of cash flow in, and withdrawals of cash flow out. Ideally, more money flows in than flows out and the total never goes below zero.
每份现金流量表都涵盖特定时间段：一天、一周、一个月、一年。报告的时间段取决于目的。较短的期限，如几天和几周，对于确保公司不会耗尽现金最为有用。较长的时间段（如月和年）对于跟踪一段时间内的绩效更有用。
Every Cash Flow Statement covers a specific period of time: a day, a week, a month, a year. The time period of the report depends on the purpose. Shorter periods, like days and weeks, are most useful for making sure the company doesn’t run out of cash. Longer periods, like months and years, are more useful for tracking performance over time.
现金往往在三个主要领域流动：运营（销售报价和购买投入）、投资（收取股息和支付资本支出）和融资（借钱并偿还）。现金流量表通常分别跟踪这些来源，以便于查看现金流量的来源。
Cash tends to move in three primary areas: operations (selling offers and buying inputs), investing (collecting dividends and paying for capital expenses), and financing (borrowing money and paying it back). Cash Flow Statements usually track these sources separately to make it easy to see where the cash flows come from.
现金的好处在于它不会说谎。除非是彻头彻尾的欺诈，否则现金要么在银行账户中，要么不在银行账户中。如果公司花很多钱，但收入很少，那么公司的现金状况会随着时间的推移而减少。“创造性解释”的空间很小。
The nice thing about cash is that it doesn’t lie. Barring outright fraud, cash either is in the bank account or it’s not. If the company spends a lot of money, but less is coming in, the business’s cash position will decrease over time. There’s little room for “creative interpretation.”
许多投资者在评估公司时使用一种称为“自由现金流”的指标。该指标来自现金流量表：它是企业从运营中收取的现金减去资本设备和资产支出的现金，这是保持公司运营所必需的。公司的自由现金流量越高越好：这意味着企业不必为了继续赚钱而持续投入大量资本。
Many investors use a metric called “free cash flow” when evaluating companies. This metric comes from the Cash Flow Statement: it’s the amount of cash a business collects from operations minus cash spent for capital equipment and assets, which are necessary to keep the company operating. The higher a company’s free cash flow, the better: it means the business doesn’t have to keep investing huge amounts of Capital in order to continue bringing in money.
在每个企业中，现金代表选择权：创造新报价、投资营销和销售、雇用员工、购买设备、收购另一家公司等的能力。一般来说，您的企业拥有的现金越多，就越多它拥有的选择越多，业务就越有弹性。
In every business, cash represents Options: the ability to create new offers, invest in marketing and sales, hire employees, purchase equipment, acquire another company, etc. As a general rule, the more cash your business has at its disposal, the more Options it has and the more Resilient the business becomes.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/cash-flow-statement/
收入证明
Income Statement
年轻的时候，我认为钱是人生中最重要的东西。现在我老了，我知道了。
When I was young, I thought money was the most important thing in life. Now that I’m old, I know it is.
——奥斯卡·王尔德，著名的讽刺作家
—OSCAR WILDE, RENOWNED SATIRIST
现金很重要，但不是全部。现金不是利润，利润才是我们所追求的。有可能在一段时间内拥有一个不错的、舒适的现金头寸，但每次销售都会亏损。
Cash is important, but it’s not the whole picture. Cash is not Profit, and Profit is what we’re after. It’s possible to have a nice, comfortable cash position for a while but lose money with every sale.
想象一家零售商从制造商那里赊购产品：它收到存货但在 90 天内不必向制造商付款。三个月来，销售额不断增加，零售商的现金头寸越来越大。对于未经训练的人来说，事情看起来很棒。
Imagine a retailer that buys products from a manufacturer on credit: it receives inventory but doesn’t have to pay the manufacturer for ninety days. For three months, the sales roll in, and the retailer’s cash position grows and grows. To the untrained eye, things look great.
九十天后，制造商的发票到期。当您计算产品成本和零售商的运营费用时，您会发现事实：公司亏损，尽管现金余额在三个月内看起来不错。如果零售商不采取措施，它最终会耗尽资金并倒闭。没有利润，企业就无法长期存在。
After ninety days, the manufacturer’s invoice comes due. When you total the cost of the products and the retailer’s operating expenses, you discover the truth: the company lost money, even though the cash balance looked great for three months. If the retailer doesn’t do something, it’ll eventually run out of money and close. Businesses can’t exist without Profits for long.
零售商的错误在于依赖收付实现制而不了解其局限性。对于许多类型的企业来说，现金会计是理想的选择：它简单易懂。只要你带来的现金比你花的多，而且你的钱不花光，生活就是美好的。多年来，我一直使用现金会计来经营我的企业。我在提供产品和服务之前就得到报酬，而且我没有要管理的库存。我的生意并不复杂，所以我的会计和财务跟踪不需要很复杂。
The retailer’s error was relying on cash accounting without understanding its limitations. For many types of businesses, cash accounting is ideal: it’s simple and easy to understand. As long as you bring in more cash than you spend and you don’t run out of money, life is good. I’ve run my businesses using cash accounting for years. I get paid before I provide products and services, and I don’t have an inventory to manage. My business isn’t complicated, so my accounting and financial tracking don’t need to be complicated.
对于其他企业，仅仅依靠现金流量表是不够的。如果企业管理库存或向客户提供信贷，简单的现金流量分析可能会产生误导。为了确定您的销售是否盈利，您需要能够跟踪哪些销售和费用是相关的。通过将每次销售与进行该销售的过程中产生的费用相匹配，可以查看您是否立即获利，从而消除不愉快的意外。
For other businesses, relying on a Cash Flow Statement isn’t enough. If the business manages an inventory or extends credit to customers, a simple cash flow analysis can be misleading. In order to determine whether or not your sales are profitable, you need to be able to track which sales and expenses are related. By matching each sale with the expenses incurred in the process of making that sale, it’s possible to see if you’re making a Profit immediately, eliminating unpleasant surprises.
首先，公司必须改变其核算费用的方式。公司必须开始在所谓的“权责发生制”基础上跟踪收入和支出，而不是在现金流入时记录收入，在现金流出时记录费用。
First, the company must change the way it accounts for expenses. Instead of recording revenue when cash flows in and an expense when cash flows out, the company must begin tracking revenue and expenses on what’s called an “accrual” basis.
在权责发生制中，收入在销售（即购买产品、提供服务等）时确认，与该销售相关的费用在同一时期发生。
In accrual accounting, revenue is recognized when a sale is made (i.e., a product is purchased, a service is rendered, etc.), and the expenses associated with that sale are incurred in the same time period.
会计师称之为“匹配原则”，会计师的主要工作之一是匹配收入和支出记录。这比听起来更难：需要大量的判断，而且模棱两可的地方很常见。（如果你想知道会计师整天都在做什么，这是工作的重要部分。）
Accountants call this the “matching principle,” and one of the primary jobs of an accountant is to match revenue and expense records. This is harder than it sounds: an incredible amount of judgment is required, and ambiguous areas are common. (If you’ve ever wondered what accountants do all day, this is a big part of the job.)
这项工作的结果是损益表，有时也称为“损益表”、“经营报表”或“收益表”陈述。” 无论标签如何，一旦收入与相关费用相匹配，损益表都包含对特定时期内企业利润的估计。
The result of this effort is an Income Statement, which is sometimes called a “profit and loss statement,” “operating statement,” or “earnings statement.” Regardless of the label, the Income Statement contains an estimate of the business’s Profit over a certain period of time, once revenue is matched with the related expenses.
损益表的一般格式如下所示：
The general format for an Income Statement looks like this:
收入 - 销售成本 - 费用 - 税收 = 净利润
Revenue − Cost of Goods Sold − Expenses − Taxes = Net Profit
损益表非常有用：企业不厌其烦地制作损益表是有原因的。通过将支出与收入相匹配，损益表可以更轻松地查看公司的盈利能力，并做出将在未来几周和几个月内改善公司银行存款余额的决策。
Income Statements are very useful: there’s a reason businesses go to the trouble of creating them. By matching expenses with revenue, Income Statements make it easier to look at the company’s profitability and make decisions that will improve the company’s bank balance in the weeks and months to come.
也就是说，重要的是要认识到损益表本质上包括许多估计和假设。他们不得不：设备采购等大笔费用可能涉及巨额现金支出，但损益表仅将一小部分费用分配给每个销售期，这种做法称为摊销。这种做法有助于将费用与相关收入相匹配：查看那个时期的巨额负现金流量表会产生误导。
That said, it’s important to recognize that Income Statements, by nature, include many estimates and assumptions. They have to: large expenses like equipment purchases may involve a huge cash outlay, but the Income Statement attributes only a small piece of the expense to each sales period, a practice called Amortization. This practice helps match the expense to the associated revenue: looking at a huge negative Cash Flow Statement for that period would be misleading.
匹配原则尽管有其所有好处，但在损益表中引入了许多潜在偏差的来源。通过改变收入的确认时间以及费用与收入的匹配方式，会计师和财务专业人士可以通过改变一些假设或公式来使“利润”线飙升或暴跌。
The matching principle, for all of its benefits, introduces many sources of potential bias in the Income Statement. By changing when revenue is recognized and how expenses are matched to that revenue, accountants and finance professionals can make the “profit” line skyrocket or plummet by changing a few assumptions or formulas.
探索损益表中潜在偏差的每一个来源远远超出了本书的范围。如果您对这个主题的更多细节感兴趣，我强烈推荐Karen Berman 和 Joe Knight 与 John Case 合着的Financial Intelligence for Entrepreneurs。
Exploring every source of potential bias in the Income Statement is way beyond the scope of this book. If you’re interested in more detail on this topic, I highly recommend Financial Intelligence for Entrepreneurs by Karen Berman and Joe Knight with John Case.
如果您怀疑您的企业需要权责发生制会计来生成准确的损益表，请不要自己做；尽快与 CPA 或 CFA 交谈。您的损益表越准确可靠，您就越能更好地管理您的业务：钱花得值。
If you suspect your business needs accrual accounting to generate an accurate Income Statement, don’t do it yourself; talk to a CPA or CFA as soon as possible. The more accurate and reliable your Income Statement is, the better you’ll be able to manage your business: money well spent.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/income-statement/
资产负债表
Balance Sheet
如果你想知道钱的价值，就去尝试借一些。
If you would know the value of money, go try and borrow some.
—本杰明·富兰克林，18 世纪美国政治领袖、科学家和博学者
—BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY AMERICAN POLITICAL LEADER, SCIENTIST, AND POLYMATH
资产负债表是企业在特定时刻拥有什么和欠什么的快照。您可以将其视为创建资产负债表时公司净资产的估计值。
A Balance Sheet is a snapshot of what a business owns and what it owes at a particular moment in time. You can think of it as an estimate of the company’s net worth at the time the Balance Sheet was created.
资产负债表总是引用特定日期并使用此计算：
Balance Sheets always cite a specific day and use this calculation:
资产-负债=所有者权益
Assets − Liabilities = Owner’s Equity
资产是公司拥有的有价值的东西：产品、设备、股票等。负债是公司尚未清偿的义务：贷款、融资等。清偿所有企业负债后剩下的就是所有者权益，公司的“净资产”。
Assets are things the company owns that have value: products, equipment, stock, etc. Liabilities are obligations the firm hasn’t yet discharged: loans, financing, etc. What’s left over when you discharge all of the business’s liabilities is owner’s equity, the company’s “net worth.”
对于规模较小的企业，资产负债表非常简单：计算您手头的现金，加上您拥有的任何资产的估计市场价值，然后减去所有债务和流动义务。瞧：您已经创建了一个基本的资产负债表。
For smaller businesses, the Balance Sheet is pretty straightforward: count your cash on hand, add the estimated market value of any assets you own, and subtract all debt and current obligations. Voilà: you’ve created a basic Balance Sheet.
对于规模较大的企业，资产负债表更为复杂，需要跟踪的条目也更多。常见资产包括现金、应收账款（您提供给客户的信贷）、存货、设备和财产。常见负债包括长期和短期债务、应付账款（其他公司提供给您的信贷）和其他义务。所有者权益包括公司股票的价值、来自投资者的资本和留存收益（尚未支付给公司股东的利润）。
For larger businesses, the Balance Sheet is more complicated, and there are more entries to keep track of. Common assets include cash, accounts receivable (credit that you’ve extended to customers), inventory, equipment, and property. Common liabilities include long- and short-term debt, accounts payable (credit that other firms have extended to you), and other obligations. Owner’s equity includes the value of the company’s stock, capital from investors, and retained earnings (profit that hasn’t been paid to the company’s shareholders).
使资产负债表“平衡”的是计算的次要形式，它是第一个等式的重新排列：
What makes the Balance Sheet “balance” is the secondary form of the calculation, which is a rearrangement of the first equation:
资产=负债+所有者权益
Assets = Liabilities + Owner’s Equity
这个计算乍看起来很奇怪：你为什么要加上负债和所有者权益？
This calculation looks odd at first: why would you ever want to add liabilities and owner’s equity?
原因如下：当一家企业借钱时，它会收到借入的现金数额。这继续在现金流量表上，以及涌入如果您没有注意到这是一笔贷款，那么金钱会让您的企业看起来一个月都过得很好。仔细想想，公司的财务状况并没有改变：公司现在拥有更多资产（更多现金），但也有新的负债（更多债务）。公司的“净资产”根本没有变化。
Here’s why: when a business borrows money, it receives the amount of cash borrowed. That goes on the Cash Flow Statement, and the influx of money makes it look like the business had a very good month if you don’t notice it’s a loan. When you think about it, the company’s financial picture didn’t change: the business now has more assets (more cash), but it also has a new liability (more debt). The company’s “net worth” didn’t change at all.
第二个公式很有用，因为它反映了这种关系。假设您要创业并借了 10,000 美元。在你借钱之前，你的资产负债表是这样的：
The second formula is useful because it reflects this relationship. Let’s assume you’re starting a business and you borrow $10,000. Before you borrow the money, your Balance Sheet looks like this:
$0 = $0 + $0（你没有资产，没有负债，也没有股权）
$0 = $0 + $0 (you have no assets, no liabilities, and no equity)
借钱后，您的资产负债表如下所示：
After you borrow the money, your Balance Sheet looks like this:
10,000 美元 = 10,000 美元 + 0 美元（您有 10,000 美元的资产，10,000 美元的负债，没有股权）
$10,000 = $10,000 + $0 (you have $10,000 in assets, $10,000 in liabilities, and no equity)
资产负债表的两边是一样的。资产负债表总是平衡的。如果它不平衡，你就犯了一个错误。
Both sides of the Balance Sheet are the same. The Balance Sheet always balances. If it doesn’t balance, you’ve made an error.
由于资产负债表是某个时刻的快照，因此一次查看其中的几个是很常见的。例如，一家公司可能包括在过去两三年的财政年度最后一天计算的资产负债表。比较资产负债表可以很容易地看出资产、负债和所有者权益是如何随时间变化的。
Since Balance Sheets are snapshots of a moment in time, it’s common to review several of them at a time. For example, a company might include Balance Sheets calculated on the last day of its fiscal year for the past two or three years. Comparing the Balance Sheets makes it easy to see how assets, liabilities, and owner’s equity have changed over time.
资产负债表很有价值，因为它们可以回答有关企业财务状况的许多重要问题。通过检查一家公司的资产负债表，您可以确定该公司是否有偿付能力（即其资产大于负债）、支付账单是否有困难，或者公司的价值随时间发生了怎样的变化。
Balance Sheets are valuable because they answer many important questions about the financial health of a business. By examining a company’s Balance Sheet, you can determine whether or not the company is solvent (i.e., its assets are greater than its liabilities), if it’s having trouble paying its bills, or how the company’s value has changed over time.
资产负债表，就像损益表一样，充满了可能在数字中引入偏差的假设和估计。品牌名称或声誉的价值是什么？公司应收账款的多少百分比将被支付？企业当前的库存有多大价值？不要跳过脚注：通过检查资产负债表条目背后的假设，您将更准确地了解企业实力。
Balance Sheets, just like Income Statements, are full of assumptions and estimates that can introduce bias in the numbers. What’s the value of a brand name or Reputation? What percentage of the company’s accounts receivable will be paid? How valuable is the business’s current inventory? Don’t skip the footnotes: by examining the assumptions behind the entries on the Balance Sheet, you’ll develop a more accurate picture of the strength of the business.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/balance-sheet/
财务比率
Financial Ratios
在现实世界中，测试都是公开的，你的成功无情地取决于你从自由市场中学到的教训。
In the real world, the tests are all open book, and your success is inexorably determined by the lessons you glean from the free market.
——JONATHAN ROSENBERG，谷歌前产品高级副总裁
—JONATHAN ROSENBERG, FORMER SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT OF PRODUCTS AT GOOGLE
编制好公司的基本财务报告后，您可以通过多种不同方式对其进行检查。最有效的策略之一是计算财务比率：对您的业务的两个重要元素进行比较。
Once you’ve compiled your business’s basic financial reports, you can examine them in many different ways. One of the most effective strategies is to calculate a Financial Ratio: a comparison of two important elements of your business.
财务比率是有益的，因为它们允许您在企业之间进行比较。无需仔细研究原始财务数据，查看财务比率可以帮助您一目了然地确定业务的某些部分是否健康。查看这些比率如何随时间变化有助于您了解业务如何随时间变化。将比率与行业平均水平进行比较，可以很容易地看出公司的表现是否像行业中的典型公司一样，或者是否有什么奇怪的地方。
Financial Ratios are beneficial because they allow you to make comparisons between businesses. Instead of poring over raw financial data, looking at a Financial Ratio helps you decide at a glance whether or not certain parts of the business are healthy. Looking at how these Ratios change over time helps you see how the business is changing over time. Comparing the Ratios to industry averages makes it easy to see if the company is performing like a typical company in the industry or if something is odd.
盈利能力比率表明企业产生利润的能力。您的收入越高，成本越低，您的盈利率就越高。我们已经讨论过利润率，这是一个非常基本的盈利率。通过将净利润除以总资产计算得出的“资产回报率”告诉您投资于企业的每一美元中有多少百分比作为利润回报。
Profitability ratios indicate a business’s ability to generate Profit. The higher your revenue and the lower your costs, the higher your profitability ratios. We’ve already discussed Profit Margin, which is a very basic profitability ratio. “Return on Assets,” which is calculated by dividing net profit by total assets, tells you what percentage of every dollar invested in the business was returned as profit.
杠杆比率表明您的公司如何使用债务。“债务权益比率”是通过总负债除以股东权益计算得出的，它告诉您公司每 1 美元的所有者权益需要借入多少美元。如果比率很高，则表明公司的杠杆率很高，这可能是一个不好的迹象。其他比率，如“利息覆盖率”，计算企业利润中有多少用于偿还债务利息。
Leverage ratios indicate how your company uses debt. “Debt-to-equity ratios,” which are calculated by dividing total liabilities by shareholders’ equity, tell you how many dollars a company has borrowed for every $1 in owner’s equity. If the Ratio is high, it’s a signal the company is highly Leveraged, which could be a bad sign. Other Ratios, like “interest coverage,” calculate how much of the business’s profit goes to pay off interest on debt.
流动性比率表明企业支付账单的能力。现金用完是一个严重的问题，因此“流动比率”（流动资产除以流动负债）和“速动比率”（流动资产减去库存，除以流动负债）等比率可以很容易地确定接近一家公司即将破产，或者如果企业坐拥现金而不是投资于增长或改进。
Liquidity ratios indicate the ability of a business to pay its bills. Running out of cash is a serious issue, so ratios like the “current ratio” (current assets divided by current liabilities) and the “quick ratio” (current assets, minus inventory, divided by current liabilities) make it easy to determine how close a company is to bankruptcy, or if the business is sitting on cash instead of investing money in growth or improvement.
效率比率表明企业管理资产和负债的能力。最常见的用途是库存管理：库存太少是一件坏事，但库存太多也不好。计算一件商品的平均存货天数、售完当前存货所需的时间以及“待售天数”（衡量从销售中收回现金所需的时间），有助于改变生产，管理手头库存，并规划未来的资本投资。
Efficiency ratios indicate how well a business is managing assets and liabilities. The most common use is inventory management: having too little inventory is a bad thing, but having too much is also bad. Calculating the average number of days an item is in inventory, how long it takes to sell out current inventory, and “day sales outstanding,” a measure of how long it takes to collect the cash from sales, are helpful when making changes in production, managing inventory on hand, and planning future capital investments.
财务比率有数千种，涵盖所有这些超出了本书的范围。金融分析师倾向于根据行业选择一小组重要比率：计算理发店的“库存周转率”没有意义，除非该店也恰好销售美发产品。每个企业都有少量重要的比率需要考虑；值得做一些研究以了解它们对您的行业有何意义。
There are thousands of Financial Ratios, and covering them all is way beyond the scope of this book. Financial analysts tend to choose a small set of important Ratios based on the industry: it makes no sense to calculate “inventory turns” for a barbershop, unless the shop also happens to sell hair products. Every business has a small number of important Ratios to consider; it’s worthwhile to do a bit of research to see what they are for your industry.
我们将在第 10 章讨论其他比率；该技术在金融以外的许多领域都很有用。现在，请记住，财务比率可用于在不花费太多时间的情况下检查利润、债务、现金和效率的健全性。
We’ll discuss other Ratios in chapter 10; the technique is useful in many areas outside of finance. For now, remember that Financial Ratios are useful for sanity-checking profit, debt, cash, and efficiency without spending too much time.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/financial-ratios/
成本效益分析
Cost-Benefit Analysis
我必须研究案件中简单的物理事实，确定什么是可能的，并了解什么是明智和正确的。题难，善男子不以为然。
I must study the plain physical facts of the case, ascertain what is possible, and learn what appears to be wise and right. The subject is difficult, and good men do not agree.
——亚伯拉罕·林肯，美国第十六任总统
—ABRAHAM LINCOLN, SIXTEENTH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
财务分析的目的不是生成令人印象深刻的电子表格：它是为了做出更好的决策。如果您正在检查的数据不会导致改善您的业务的变化，那么您就是在浪费时间。财务的核心是检查一个潜在的行动，参考你掌握的数据，并决定做什么（如果有的话）。
The purpose of financial analysis isn’t to produce impressive-looking spreadsheets: it’s to make better decisions. If the data you’re examining doesn’t lead to changes that improve your business, you’re wasting your time. The core of finance is examining a potential action, consulting the data you have at your disposal, and deciding what (if anything) to do.
成本效益分析是检查您的业务的潜在变化以查看收益是否超过成本的过程。而不是采取行动改变你想到它的那一刻，你退后一步来评估行动的真正成本，以及你是否相信这是你可以用有限的时间、精力和资源做的最好的事情。
Cost-Benefit Analysis is the process of examining potential changes to your business to see if the benefits outweigh the costs. Instead of acting on a change the moment you think of it, you take a step back to evaluate the true cost of the action and whether or not you believe it’s the best thing you can do with your limited time, energy, and resources.
在进行成本效益分析时，重要的是要包括非纯粹财务方面的成本和收益。非经济成本，如享受，可以在项目是否值得追求方面发挥重要作用。谷歌著名的自助餐厅福利就是一个很好的例子：公司全天候为员工提供免费、优质的食物。在您考虑收益之前，这项政策看起来像是一项巨大的成本：通过提供早餐、午餐、晚餐和小吃，公司鼓励员工尽可能多地工作。成本被生产力和团队凝聚力的提高所抵消，这是非常重要的。
When conducting a Cost-Benefit Analysis, it’s important to include costs and benefits that aren’t purely financial. Noneconomic costs, like enjoyment, can play a large role in whether or not a project is worth pursuing. Google’s famous cafeteria benefits are a good example: the company provides free, high-quality food to employees around the clock. This policy looks like a huge cost until you consider the benefit: by providing breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snacks, the company is encouraging employees to be at work as much as possible. The cost is offset by the increase in productivity and team cohesion, which is very significant.
消除长期的挫败感和小的低效率也同样有益。我最近花了几百美元将我的电脑硬盘升级为固态硬盘，速度提高了六倍。我的应用程序和程序现在可以在不到一秒的时间内启动，而不是需要五到十秒的等待。这听起来并不多，但随着时间的推移会积累一些小的改进。我的大部分工作时间都花在电脑上，这是一个巨大的不同。我更快乐，我完成了更多工作：钱花得值。
Removing chronic frustrations and small inefficiencies can be just as beneficial. I recently spent a few hundred dollars to upgrade my computer’s hard disk to a solid-state drive that is six times faster. My applications and programs now launch in less than a second, instead of requiring a five- to ten-second wait. That doesn’t sound like much, but small improvements Accumulate over time. I spend most of my work time on the computer, and it’s a huge difference. I’m happier and I’m getting more work done: money well spent.
在做出决定之前，评估总成本和收益。进行一些评估将确保您以最有效的方式花钱。
Before making a decision, evaluate the total costs and benefits. A little evaluation will ensure you spend your money in the most effective ways.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/cost-benefit-analysis/
增加收入的四种方法
Four Methods to Increase Revenue
对于那些了解支配其获取的简单法则的人来说，金钱是充足的。
Money is plentiful for those who understand the simple laws which govern its acquisition.
——乔治·S·克拉森，巴比伦最富有的人
—GEORGE S. CLASON, THE RICHEST MAN IN BABYLON
信不信由你，只有四种方法可以增加您的业务收入：
Believe it or not, there are only four ways to increase your business’s revenue:
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增加您服务的客户数量。
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Increase the number of customers you serve.
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通过销售更多来增加每笔交易的平均规模。
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Increase the average size of each Transaction by selling more.
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增加每个客户的交易频率。
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Increase the frequency of Transactions per customer.
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提高你的价格。
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Raise your prices.
假设您正在经营一家餐厅，您希望增加餐厅带来的收入。以下是应用这些策略的方法：
Imagine you’re operating a restaurant and you want to increase the amount of revenue that your restaurant brings in. Here’s how to apply these strategies:
增加客户数量意味着您正试图吸引更多人上门。这个策略相对简单：餐厅的访客越多，标签越多，这（假设平均交易规模保持不变）会带来更多收入。
Increasing the number of customers means you’re trying to bring more people in the door. This strategy is relatively straightforward: more visitors to your restaurant will equal more tabs, which (assuming the average Transaction size stays the same) will bring in more money.
增加平均交易规模意味着您试图让每个客户购买更多。这通常通过称为“追加销售”的过程来完成。当顾客购买主菜时，您会为他们提供开胃菜、饮料和甜点。客户购买的这些商品越多，他们花费的越多，您获得的收入就越多。
Increasing average Transaction size means you’re trying to get each customer to purchase more. This is often done through a process called “upselling.” When a customer purchases an entrée, you offer them appetizers, drinks, and dessert. The more of these items the customer purchases, the more they spend, and the more revenue you collect.
增加每个客户的交易频率意味着鼓励人们更频繁地向您购买。如果您的普通客户每月光顾一次，说服他们每周光顾您的企业一次将增加您的收入。假设平均交易规模保持不变，他们光顾您的餐厅的频率越高，您的餐厅带来的收入就越多。
Increasing the frequency of Transactions per customer means encouraging people to purchase from you more often. If your average customer comes in once a month, convincing them to patronize your business once a week will increase your revenue. The more frequently they visit your establishment, the more revenue your restaurant will bring in, assuming the average transaction size stays the same.
提高价格意味着您将从客户的每次购买中获得更多收入。假设您的交易量、平均交易规模和频率保持不变，那么提高价格将以同样的努力带来更多的收入。
Raising your prices means you’ll collect more revenue from every purchase a customer makes. Assuming your volume, average Transaction size, and frequency stay the same, raising your prices will bring in more revenue for the same amount of effort.
记住资格的教训：不是每个客户都是好客户。有些客户会浪费您的时间、精力和资源，而不会提供您正在寻找的结果。如果您花费大量精力为不经常光顾、平均交易规模低、不宣传和抱怨价格的客户服务，那么吸引更多这些客户就没有意义顾客。
Remember the lesson of Qualification: not every customer is a good customer. Some customers will sap your time, energy, and resources without providing the results that you’re looking for. If you’re spending a lot of energy serving customers who don’t come in often, have a low average Transaction size, don’t spread the word, and complain about the price, it doesn’t make sense to attract more of those customers.
始终将大部分精力集中在为理想客户提供服务上。您理想的客户会早早购买、经常购买、花费最多、广为传播并愿意为您提供的价值支付溢价。
Always focus the majority of your efforts on serving your ideal customers. Your ideal customers buy early, buy often, spend the most, spread the word, and are willing to pay a premium for the value you provide.
您吸引的理想客户越多，您的业务就越好。
The more ideal customers you can attract, the better your business.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/4-methods-to-increase-revenue/
定价权
Pricing Power
随着时间的推移，您可以通过他们在提价过程中经历的痛苦程度来确定企业的实力。
You can determine the strength of a business over time by the amount of agony they go through in raising prices.
——沃伦·巴菲特，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官，世界上最富有的人之一
—WARREN BUFFETT, CHAIRMAN AND CEO OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY, AND ONE OF THE WEALTHIEST INDIVIDUALS IN THE WORLD
想象一下，将您当前的价格翻倍。如果您失去的客户不到一半，这可能是一个很好的举措。
Imagine doubling your current prices. If you’d lose less than half of your customers, it’s probably a good move.
定价能力是您随着时间的推移提高您收取的价格的能力。您捕获的价值越少，您的定价能力就越大。为客户服务需要时间、精力和资源——您为每位服务的客户赚取的收入越多，您的业务就越好。更改价格可以帮助您最大限度地提高结果，同时最大限度地减少您的努力和投资。
Pricing Power is your ability to raise the prices you’re charging over time. The less value you’re capturing, the greater your Pricing Power. Serving customers takes time, energy, and resources—the more you earn per customer served, the better your business. Changing your prices can help you maximize your results while minimizing your effort and investment.
定价权与经济学家称为“价格弹性”的概念有关。如果客户对您的报价非常敏感，那么即使价格略有上涨，您也会失去很多客户，这意味着需求是“富有弹性的”。牙膏等成熟的半商品市场就是很好的例子：除非你能够创造出客户非常想要的新颖独特的东西，否则提高价格是确保每个人都停止购买你的产品并开始从你的竞争对手那里购买的好方法。
Pricing Power is related to a concept economists call “price elasticity.” If customers are very sensitive to the price of your offer, you’ll lose many customers with even a slight increase in price, meaning demand is “elastic.” Established semicommodity markets like toothpaste are good examples: unless you’re able to create something new and unique that customers badly want, increasing your prices is a good way to ensure that everyone stops buying your product and starts buying from your competitor.
如果您的客户对价格不敏感，您可以将价格提高四倍而销售额几乎没有变化。以奢侈品为例——客户购买它们是因为它们价格昂贵Status Signals因为它们价格昂贵而具有排他性。提高名牌手袋、服装和手表的价格可能会使这些商品更受欢迎，而不是更少。
If your customers aren’t price sensitive, you could quadruple the price with little change in sales. Take luxury goods, for example—customers purchase them because they’re expensive Status Signals that are exclusive because they’re costly. Increasing the price of designer handbags, clothing, and watches is likely to make those items more desirable, not less.
经济学家喜欢花时间绘制和计算价格弹性，但这不是必需的——除非你已经有了准确的规范，否则你无法知道你有多少定价权，直到你改变价格并观察会发生什么。幸运的是，除非你是一个庞大而活跃的市场中的老牌玩家（在这种情况下你将有规范可循），除非你的价格得到广泛宣传和审查，否则改变你的价格很少会产生永久性影响；您可以尝试找出有效的方法。
Economists like to spend time graphing and calculating price elasticity, but it’s not necessary—unless you already have accurate Norms, you can’t know how much Pricing Power you have until you change your prices and watch what happens. Fortunately, unless you’re an established player in a large and active market (in which case you’ll have Norms to work with), changing your prices very rarely has permanent effects unless your prices are broadly publicized and scrutinized; you can experiment to find what works.
定价权很重要，因为提高价格可以让您克服通货膨胀和成本增加的不利影响。从历史上看，任何政府发行的货币都会随着时间的推移而贬值——官员有许多强烈的动机增加货币供应，这会降低该货币的购买力。
Pricing Power is important because raising your prices allows you to overcome the adverse effects of inflation and increased costs. Historically, currency issued by any government tends to decrease in value over time—there are many strong incentives for officials to increase the supply of currency, which debases that currency’s Purchasing Power.
因此，购买维持业务所需的相同产品和服务需要更多的货币，从而增加了您企业的财务充足需求。如果没有足够的定价权，您的企业可能无法在更高的费用面前保持充足。
As a result, it takes more currency to purchase the same products and services necessary to stay in business, increasing your business’s financial Sufficiency needs. Without adequate Pricing Power, your business may not be able to maintain Sufficiency in the face of higher expenses.
您可以要求的价格越高，就越容易保持利润充足。如果您有选择，请选择一个您将拥有定价权的市场——随着时间的推移保持充足性会容易得多。
The higher the prices you can command, the easier it will be to maintain profit Sufficiency. If you have a choice, choose a market in which you’ll have Pricing Power—it’ll be much easier to maintain Sufficiency over time.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/pricing-power/
终生价值
Lifetime Value
客户的目的不是为了获得销售。销售的目的是获得客户。
The purpose of a customer isn’t to get a sale. The purpose of a sale is to get a customer.
—BILL GLAZER，广告专家
—BILL GLAZER, ADVERTISING EXPERT
想象一下在热门旅游目的地的人行道上经营一个柠檬水摊。每杯柠檬水售价 1 美元。你可能忙于为客户服务，但你服务的每个客户都只是路过——你可能再也见不到他们了。
Imagine operating a lemonade stand on the sidewalk of a popular tourist destination. Each cup of lemonade costs $1. You may be busy serving customers, but each customer you serve is just passing by—you’ll probably never see them again.
将其与保险业务进行对比。假设普通客户每月为定期人寿保险支付 200 美元的保费，即每位客户每年支付 2,400 美元的保费。如果典型客户在整个 30 年期限内都留在同一家保险公司，则每位客户在与公司的关系生命周期内支付的保费价值为 72,000 美元。这是一个很大的不同。
Contrast that with the insurance business. Assume the average customer pays a premium of $200 per month for term life insurance—that’s $2,400 in premiums per customer per year. If the typical customer remains with the same insurance agency for the entire thirty-year term, each client is worth $72,000 in premium payments over the lifetime of their relationship with the company. That’s a big difference.
终生价值是客户在与贵公司建立关系的整个生命周期内的业务总价值。客户从您那里购买的商品越多，他们与您在一起的时间越长，该客户对您的业务就越有价值。
Lifetime Value is the total value of a customer’s business over the lifetime of their relationship with your company. The more a customer purchases from you and the longer they stay with you, the more valuable that customer is to your business.
订阅如此有利可图的原因之一是它们最大化了生命周期价值。订阅不是向客户进行单一销售，而是企业专注于尽可能长时间地提供价值和收取收入。客户保持订阅的时间越长，他们支付的价格越高，该客户的终身价值就越高。
One of the reasons Subscriptions are so profitable is that they maximize Lifetime Value. Instead of making a single sale to a customer, Subscription businesses focus on providing value—and collecting revenue—for as long as possible. The longer a customer remains Subscribed and the higher the price they pay, the higher the Lifetime Value of that customer.
平均客户的终身价值越高，您的业务就越好。通过了解您的平均客户购买多少以及他们倾向于向您购买多长时间，您可以为每个新客户赋予有形价值，这有助于您做出正确的决策。失去一个柠檬水摊的顾客并不是什么大事——失去一个保险客户才是。
The higher your average customer’s Lifetime Value, the better your business. By understanding how much your average customer purchases and how long they tend to buy from you, you can place a tangible value on each new customer, which helps you make good decisions. Losing a single lemonade-stand customer isn’t a huge deal—losing an insurance client is.
总而言之，在客户具有高终生价值的市场中运营要好得多。客户的终生价值越高，您可以做更多的事情来让他们满意，并且您可以更加专注于为客户提供良好的服务。与有利可图的客户保持长期关系，您就赢了。
All told, it’s much better to operate in markets where customers have a high Lifetime Value. The higher the Lifetime Value of your customer, the more you can do to keep them happy and the more you can focus on serving customers well. Maintain a long-term relationship with profitable customers and you win.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/lifetime-value/
允许的购置成本
Allowable Acquisition Cost
任何企业都可以以负利润率购买增量单位销售额，但更简单的做法是站在角落里分发 20 美元的钞票，直到你破产。
Any business can buy incremental unit sales at a negative profit margin, but it’s simpler to stand on the corner handing out $20 bills until you go broke.
——莫里斯·罗森塔尔，出版商
—MORRIS ROSENTHAL, PUBLISHER
回想一下柠檬水摊：你可以花多少钱来吸引一个付费顾客？不多——你每杯柠檬水只能赚 1 美元，所以你无力在个人营销上花费太多。
Think back to the lemonade stand: how much could you spend to attract a single paying customer? Not much—you’re only earning $1 per cup of lemonade, so you can’t afford to spend much on marketing to individuals.
将其与保险公司进行对比：如果客户的终生价值为 72,000 美元，您可以花多少钱来吸引新客户？多得多。
Contrast that with the insurance agency: if the Lifetime Value of a customer is $72,000, how much could you spend to attract a new customer? Much more.
引起人们的注意和获得新的前景需要花费时间和资源。了解潜在客户的终身价值后，您就可以计算出您愿意为获得新潜在客户花费的最大时间和资源。
Getting people’s attention and acquiring new prospects costs time and resources. Once you understand the Lifetime Value of a prospect, you can calculate the maximum amount of time and resources you’re willing to spend to acquire a new prospect.
允许购置成本 (AAC)是终身价值的营销组成部分。平均客户的终生价值越高，您可以花钱吸引新客户，从而有可能以新的方式宣传您的产品。
Allowable Acquisition Cost (AAC) is the marketing component of Lifetime Value. The higher the average customer’s Lifetime Value, the more you can spend to attract a new customer, making it possible to spread the word about your offer in new ways.
拥有高终身价值的客户甚至会让您在首次销售时赔钱。Guthy-Renker 使用长篇电视商业广告销售一种名为 Proactiv 的外用痤疮治疗药物，价格昂贵——他们聘请名人代言人并花费数百万美元制作和播放这些商业广告。乍一看，这没有任何意义：第一次销售是为了 20 美元的“低价、低价”。他们到底怎么不赔钱？
Having a customer with a high Lifetime Value even allows you to lose money on the first sale. Guthy-Renker sells a topical acne treatment called Proactiv using long-form television infomercials, which are expensive—they hire celebrity endorsers and spend millions to produce and air those commercials. At first glance, it doesn’t make any sense: the first sale is for the “low, low price” of $20. How on earth are they not losing money hand over fist?
答案是订阅。当客户购买 Proactiv 时，他们不仅仅是购买一瓶面霜——他们注册每月收到一瓶面霜，以换取定期付款。每个 Proactiv 新客户的终生价值都如此之高，以至于 Guthy-Renker 在最初的销售中“变成负数”并不重要——公司赚了很多钱，即使它在一些不这样做的客户身上赔钱。不要继续执行该程序。
The answer is Subscription. When a customer purchases Proactiv, they aren’t just buying a single bottle of face goo—they’re signing up to receive a bottle every month in exchange for a recurring payment. The Lifetime Value of each new Proactiv customer is so high that it doesn’t matter that Guthy-Renker “goes negative” on the initial sale—the company makes a ton of money, even if it loses money on a few customers who don’t continue with the program.
首次销售有时被称为“亏本销售”——旨在与新客户建立关系的诱人报价。银行和金融服务公司通常会通过提供数百美元的免费豁免、礼物，或者在某些情况下，现金来鼓励符合条件的潜在客户开设账户。
The first sale is sometimes called a “loss leader”—an enticing offer intended to establish a relationship with a new customer. Banks and financial services firms will often encourage qualified prospects to open an account by giving them hundreds of dollars in free waivers, gifts, or, in some cases, cash.
这些诱惑可能会吸收高达一年的订阅收入，但当您考虑每个客户的生命周期价值时，公司就会领先。当每个新客户的未来收入都价值数万美元时，花几百美元建立一个新账户是非常合理的。
These enticements may absorb up to a year’s worth of Subscription revenue, but the company comes out ahead when you consider the Lifetime Value of each customer. When every new client is worth tens of thousands of dollars of future income, spending a few hundred dollars to establish a new account makes perfect sense.
要计算您所在市场的允许购置成本，您需要知道所需的利润率。从您的普通客户的终身价值开始，然后减去您的价值流成本——在您与客户的整个关系中创造和交付承诺给该客户的价值所需的可变成本。然后减去你的管理费用除以你的总客户群，它代表了在这段时间内保持业务所需的固定成本：这是营销费用之前的净收入。将终生价值乘以您想要的利润率，然后从扣除营销费用前的净收入中减去该结果。这是您的最大允许购置成本。
To calculate your market’s Allowable Acquisition Cost, you’ll need to know your desired Profit Margin. Start with your average customer’s Lifetime Value, then subtract your Value Stream costs—the Variable Costs required to create and deliver the value promised to that customer over your entire relationship with them. Then subtract your Overhead divided by your total customer base, which represents the Fixed Costs required to stay in business over that period of time: that’s your net income before marketing expenses. Multiple the Lifetime Value by your desired Profit Margin, then subtract that result from your net income before marketing expenses. That’s your maximum Allowable Acquisition Cost.
举个例子：如果您在五年期间的平均生命周期价值为 2,000 美元，而价值创造和价值交付的成本为 500 美元，那么您所服务的每位客户的收入为 1,500 美元。假设您在同一五年期间的间接费用为 500,000 美元，并且您有 500 个客户，则每个客户的固定成本为 1,000 美元，这使您在营销费用之前的净收入为 500 美元。如果您的目标是最低 15% 的利润率，您可以负担得起每位客户最多 200 美元的营销费用（500 美元 − 0.15 × 2,000 美元 = 200 美元）。如果您的假设是正确的，那么您可以以 200 美元或更少的价格吸引到的任何客户都值得投资，从而为您未来的营销活动提供明确的预算。
Here’s an example: if your average Lifetime Value is $2,000 over a five-year period, and the cost of value creation and value delivery is $500, that leaves you with $1,500 in revenue per customer served. Assuming your Overhead expenses are $500,000 over the same five-year period and you have 500 customers, your Fixed Costs are $1,000 per customer, which leaves you with $500 in net income before marketing expenses. If you’re shooting for a minimum 15 percent Profit Margin, you can afford to spend up to $200 per customer on marketing expenses ($500 − 0.15 × $2,000 = $200). If your assumptions are correct, any customer you can attract for $200 or less will be worth the investment, giving you a clear budget for future marketing campaigns.
客户的生命周期价值越高，允许的购置成本就越高。每个新客户对您的业务的价值越大，您可以花更多的钱来吸引新客户并让他们满意。
The higher the Lifetime Value of your customers, the higher the Allowable Acquisition Cost. The more each new customer is worth to your business, the more you can spend to attract a new customer and keep them happy.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/allowable-acquisition-cost/
高架
Overhead
当心小开支；小漏会沉大船。
Beware of little expenses; a small leak will sink a great ship.
—本杰明·富兰克林，18 世纪美国政治领袖、科学家和博学者
—BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY AMERICAN POLITICAL LEADER, SCIENTIST, AND POLYMATH
您的租金或抵押贷款支付金额越大，您每个月需要赚取的钱就越多以支付您的费用。同样的一般原则适用于企业。
The larger your rent or mortgage payment, the more money you need to make each month to pay your expenses. The same general principle applies to businesses.
间接费用代表企业持续运营所需的最少持续资源。这包括您每月经营业务所需的所有东西，无论您是否出售任何东西：工资、租金、水电费、设备维修等。
Overhead represents the minimum ongoing resources required for a business to continue operation. This includes all of the things you need to run your business every month, regardless of whether you sell anything: salaries, rent, utilities, equipment repairs, and so on.
您的管理费用越低，企业继续运营所需的收入就越少，您达到财务充足点的速度就越快。如果你花得不多，你就不必赚很多钱来支付你的开支。
The lower your Overhead, the less revenue the business requires to continue operation and the faster you’ll reach your point of financial Sufficiency. If you don’t spend much, you don’t have to make much to cover your expenses.
如果您的公司建立在固定数量的Capital上，则间接费用是一个重要的跟踪指标。风险资本家和其他形式的投资可以提供“种子资本”——您可以使用的固定金额的资金开始创业。你在 Capital 筹集的资金越多，花得越慢，你就有更多的时间来经营企业。
Overhead is a critical metric to track if you are building your company on a fixed amount of Capital. Venture capitalists and other forms of investment can provide “seed capital”—a fixed amount of money you can use to start the business. The more money you raise in Capital and the more slowly you spend it, the more time you have to make the business work.
您“烧掉”资本的速度越快，您需要筹集的资金就越多，您开始创收的速度也就越快。如果你烧光了所有的启动资金而无法筹集到更多资金，那么游戏就结束了。这就是为什么投资者和精明的企业家非常密切地关注企业的“烧钱率”——企业花钱越慢，你就有更多的时间来寻找可持续的商业模式。
The faster you “burn” through your Capital, the more money you need to raise and the faster you need to start bringing in revenue. If you burn through all of your start-up Capital and can’t raise more, game over. That’s why investors and savvy entrepreneurs watch the business’s “burn rate” very closely—the slower the business spends money, the more time you have to find a sustainable business model.
开销越低，您的灵活性就越大，维持业务运营就越容易。
The lower your Overhead, the more flexibility you’ll have and the easier it will be to sustain your business operations.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/overhead/
成本：固定和可变
Costs: Fixed and Variable
观察成本和利润将照顾好自己。
Watch the costs and the profits will take care of themselves.
——安德鲁·卡内基，十九世纪的工业家
—ANDREW CARNEGIE, NINETEENTH-CENTURY INDUSTRIALIST
有一句古老的商业格言：你必须花钱才能赚钱。该声明有一定道理，但并非所有费用都是平等的。
There’s an old business adage: you have to spend money to make money. There’s some truth to that statement, but not all expenses are created equal.
无论您创造多少价值，都会产生固定成本。您的间接费用是固定成本：无论您在任何给定月份做什么，您仍然需要支付受薪员工和办公空间的租金。
Fixed Costs are incurred no matter how much value you create. Your Overhead is a Fixed Cost: no matter what you do in any given month, you still have to pay your salaried employees and the lease on your office space.
可变成本与您创造的价值有关。如果您从事制作棉质 T 恤的业务，那么您生产的 T 恤越多，您需要的棉织物就越多。原材料、基于使用的公用事业和小时工都是可变成本。
Variable Costs are related to how much value you create. If you’re in the business of creating cotton T-shirts, the more T-shirts you produce, the more cotton fabric you’ll need. Raw materials, usage-based utilities, and hourly workers are all Variable Costs.
固定成本的减少累积；可变成本的减少按数量放大。如果您每月可以在电话费上节省 50 美元，那么每年节省的费用将累积为 600 美元。如果您生产的每件 T 恤可以节省 0.50 美元，那么您每制作 1,000 件 T 恤就可以节省 500 美元。
Reductions in Fixed Costs Accumulate; reductions in Variable Costs are Amplified by volume. If you can save $50 per month on your phone bill, that savings Accumulates to $600 per year. If you can save $0.50 on each T-shirt you produce, you’ll save $500 on every 1,000 T-shirts you make.
你越了解你的成本，你就越有可能找到产生尽可能多的价值的方法，而不用花费你所做的一切。
The better you understand your costs, the more likely you are to find ways of producing as much value as possible without spending everything you make.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/costs-fixed-variable/
增量退化
Incremental Degradation
质量，质量，质量：永远不要动摇它，即使你看不出你如何负担得起保持它。当你妥协时，你就变成了商品，然后你就死了。
Quality, quality, quality: never waver from it, even when you don’t see how you can afford to keep it up. When you compromise, you become a commodity and then you die.
—GARY HIRSHBERG，STONYFIELD FARM 联合创始人
—GARY HIRSHBERG, COFOUNDER OF STONYFIELD FARM
信不信由你，杂货店糖果货架上的许多巧克力产品不再是“牛奶巧克力”——它们是“巧克力味糖果”。是什么赋予了？
Believe it or not, many of the chocolate products found in the candy aisles of grocery stores are no longer “milk chocolate”—they’re “chocolate-flavored candies.” What gives?
要制作优质巧克力，您必须购买优质可可豆，将其磨碎制成可可脂。然后将可可脂与糖、水和乳化剂混合，这有助于可可脂中的油“粘”在水饱和的糖上。然后将液体巧克力加热、倒入模具中并冷却以生产固体巧克力。
To make high-quality chocolate, you have to buy high-quality cocoa beans, which are ground up to make cocoa butter. Cocoa butter is then combined with sugar, water, and emulsifiers, which help the oils in the cocoa butter “stick” to the water-saturated sugar. The liquid chocolate is then heated, poured into molds, and cooled to produce solid chocolate.
多年来，大众市场巧克力制造商决定使用更便宜的原料来降低成本并增加利润率。他们没有购买优质的可可豆，而是从平庸的来源购买了更便宜的可可豆——谁会注意到呢？然后他们用植物油代替可可脂——以至于食品监管机构不允许他们再称其为“牛奶巧克力”。他们添加了更多的乳化剂、防腐剂和其他化学添加剂，以使僵尸巧克力保持在一起，并使其在货架上永久保存。
Over the years, mass-market chocolate manufacturers decided to use cheaper ingredients to keep costs down and increase their Profit Margins. Instead of buying high-quality cocoa beans, they bought less expensive beans from mediocre sources—who would notice? Then they replaced cocoa butter with vegetable oils—so much so that food regulatory bodies wouldn’t allow them to call it “milk chocolate” anymore. They added more emulsifiers, preservatives, and other chemical additives to keep the zombified chocolate together and make it last forever on the shelf.
听起来很开胃，对吧？
Sounds appetizing, right?
如果您降低报价的质量，省钱对您没有帮助。当时，这些“节省成本”的措施似乎并没有对巧克力的质量产生巨大影响——它们似乎是一种值得做出的权衡。然而，随着时间的推移，累积的影响破坏了产品的味道和质量。人们注意到了，制造商也注意到了：您现在可以购买包含原始优质成分的“高级”版本。
Saving money doesn’t help you if you degrade the quality of your offer. At the time, these “cost-saving” measures didn’t appear to have a huge impact on the chocolate’s quality—they seemed to be a Trade-off worth making. Over time, however, the accumulated effects undermined the taste and quality of the product. People noticed, and so did the manufacturers: you can now buy “premium” versions that contain the original high-quality ingredients.
财务和会计主管从主要关注削减成本中获得精打细算的声誉——通过减少开支来努力使报价或业务更有利可图。削减成本可以帮助您提高利润率，但通常要付出高昂的代价：您的报价逐渐下降。
Finance and accounting executives get their bean-counting reputations from focusing primarily on cutting costs—reducing expenses in an effort to make an offer or business more profitable. Cutting costs can help you increase your Profit Margin, but it often comes at a steep price: the Incremental Degradation of your offer.
如果您的目标是提高盈利能力，那么削减成本只能让您走这么远。创造和交付价值总是至少要花费一些钱，所以在削减开始减少你提供的价值之前，你可以削减多少成本是有一个下限的。削减浪费或不必要的成本是个好主意，但收益递减总是会起作用——小心不要把婴儿和洗澡水一起倒掉。
If your goal is to increase your profitability, cutting costs can only take you so far. Creating and delivering value will always cost at least some amount of money, so there is a lower limit to how much you can cut costs before the cuts begin to diminish the value you provide. Cutting costs that are wasteful or unnecessary is a good idea, but Diminishing Returns always kick in—be careful not to throw the baby out with the bath water.
创造和交付更多价值是提高利润的更好方法。你永远不能少花钱，但你可以提供的价值或你可以收取的收入没有上限。
Creating and delivering more value is a much better way to enhance your bottom line. You can never spend less than nothing, but there’s no upper limit on the amount of value you can provide or revenue you can collect.
控制您的成本，但不要破坏客户首先向您购买的原因。
Control your costs, but don’t undermine the reason customers buy from you in the first place.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/incremental-degradation/
收支平衡
Breakeven
一家公司在成立的头几年就赚钱是不寻常的，而且确实不正常。最初的产品和最初的组织从来都不是正确的。
It is unusual, and indeed abnormal, for a concern to make money during the first several years of its existence. The initial product and initial organization are never right.
—HARVEY S. FIRESTONE，FIRESTONE 轮胎和橡胶公司创始人
—HARVEY S. FIRESTONE, FOUNDER OF THE FIRESTONE TIRE AND RUBBER COMPANY
假设您的企业每月收入 100,000 美元，而您每月的运营费用为 50,000 美元。你在赚钱吗？
Assume your business is bringing in $100,000 per month, and you’re spending $50,000 each month in operating expenses. Are you making money?
这取决于。
It depends.
当您创建一项新业务时，通常需要一段时间才能带来比支出更多的收入。在收入开始进入之前，需要创建系统、雇用和培训员工以及开展营销工作。在您的启动期间，这些费用会增加。
When you create a new business, it often takes a while before you’re able to bring in more than you spend. Systems need to be created, employees hired and trained, and marketing efforts launched before revenue starts coming in. During your ramp-up period, those expenses add up.
假设我们的假设业务需要一年的每月 50,000 美元的费用才能启动——即 600,000 美元。现在，该企业每月的收入比支付运营费用所需的多 50,000 美元，它可以开始收回最初的投资。
Let’s assume our hypothetical business took a year’s worth of $50,000-per-month expenses to launch—that’s $600,000. Now that the business is bringing in $50,000 per month more than it needs to cover operating expenses, it can start to recoup that initial investment.
盈亏平衡点是您的企业迄今为止的总收入相等的点到迄今为止的总支出——这是您的企业开始创造财富而不是消耗财富的时间点。假设企业每月持续带来 100,000 美元的收入，并且费用保持不变，则需要 12 个月才能收回初始投资。在那之后，生意就会赚钱——在那之前，生意看起来只是盈利。
Breakeven is the point where your business’s total revenue to date is equal to its total expenses to date—it’s the point where your business starts creating wealth instead of consuming it. Assuming the business keeps bringing in $100,000 each month and expenses stay the same, it’ll take twelve months to pay down the initial investment. After that, the business will be making money—before that, it just looks like the business is profitable.
您的盈亏平衡点将逐月变化。收入波动，支出也是如此。从您的业务运营开始，记录您的支出和收入是了解您是否赚钱的唯一方法。
Your Breakeven point will change month-to-month. Revenue fluctuates, as do expenses. Keeping a running tally of how much you spend and how much revenue you collect from the start of your business’s operations is the only way to figure out whether or not you’ve made money.
您带来的收入越多，持续支出越少，您就会越快达到盈亏平衡，从而使您的企业真正实现自给自足。
The more revenue you bring in and the less you spend on an ongoing basis, the faster you’ll reach Breakeven, making your business truly self-sustaining.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/breakeven/
摊销
Amortization
在每次行动之前，问问自己：这会让更多的猴子背上我的背吗？我行动的结果是祝福还是沉重的负担？
Before every action, ask yourself: Will this bring more monkeys on my back? Will the result of my action be a blessing or a heavy burden?
—ALFRED A. MONTAPERT，人类最高哲学：生命法则的作者
—ALFRED A. MONTAPERT, AUTHOR OF THE SUPREME PHILOSOPHY OF MAN: THE LAWS OF LIFE
您已经创造了世纪玩具：一种外观和行为都像真狗的毛绒动物，但不需要喂食、浇水或在半夜放出。孩子们为您的Prototype疯狂，父母们已经把他们的信用卡扔给您，以确保他们在可用时得到一张。您将销售数百万件已成定局。
You’ve created the toy of the century: a stuffed animal that looks and acts like a real dog but doesn’t need to be fed, watered, or let out in the middle of the night. Kids go crazy for your Prototype, and parents are already throwing their credit cards at you to make sure they get one the minute it’s available. It’s a foregone conclusion that you’ll sell millions.
只有一个问题：为了让这些人造狗买得起，你必须建造一家大型工厂，这至少要花费 1 亿美元。您的银行账户中的金额远不及 1 亿美元——这是一大笔钱。一个企业怎么能负担得起像工厂这样昂贵的东西并且还能赚钱呢？
There’s only one problem: in order to make these faux dogs affordable, you’ll have to tool up a major factory, which will cost at least $100 million. Your bank account has nowhere near $100 million in it—that’s a lot of money. How can a business afford something as expensive as a factory and still make money?
摊销是在该投资的估计使用寿命内分摊资源投资成本的过程。以人造狗工厂为例，我们假设该工厂有能力生产 1000 万只狗在其使用寿命期间的单位。按单位计算，这使工厂的单位成本降至 10 美元。如果您以 100 美元的价格出售您生产的每一件产品，那么就有非常可观的利润空间。
Amortization is the process of spreading the cost of a resource investment over the estimated useful life of that investment. In the case of the faux dog factory, let’s assume the factory is capable of producing 10 million units during its useful life. On a per-unit basis, that brings the cost per unit of the factory down to $10. If you sell every unit you produce for $100, there’s room for a very healthy Profit Margin.
摊销可以帮助您确定大笔支出是否是个好主意。只要您对成本和产量有可靠的估计，摊销就可以帮助您确定投资大量资本是否有意义。
Amortization can help you determine whether or not a big expense is a good idea. As long as you have a reliable estimate of how much it will cost and how much you can produce, Amortization helps you figure out whether or not investing large amounts of Capital makes sense.
例如，书籍设计师可能会选择购买 Adobe InDesign 的副本，这是专业人士经常用来排版书籍的软件。与大多数软件包相比，InDesign 价格昂贵：单用户许可证的价格为 700 美元。这值得么？
For example, a book designer may choose to purchase a copy of Adobe InDesign, the software often used by professionals to typeset books. Compared to most software packages, InDesign is pricey: a single-user license costs $700. Is it worth it?
答案取决于设计师使用该软件排版了多少本书。如果他们从未完成一个项目，他们就浪费了钱。如果他们用它排版 10 本书，每本书 1,000 美元，那么他们通过 700 美元的投资赚了 10,000 美元——一点也不差。分摊到十个项目中，该软件的成本仅为每个项目 70 美元，或每个项目带来的收入的 7%。设计师的信用卡在购买时可能会受到伤害，但该工具提供了比其他人赚更多钱的能力否则可能。
The answer depends on how many books the designer uses the software to typeset. If they never complete a project, they’ve wasted their money. If they use it to typeset ten books for $1,000 each, they’ve earned $10,000 by making a $700 investment—not bad at all. Amortized across ten projects, the cost of the software is only $70 a project, or 7 percent of the revenue each project brings in. The designer’s credit card may hurt when the purchase is made, but the tool offers the ability to earn more money than would be possible otherwise.
摊销取决于对使用寿命的准确评估，这是一种预测。如果您不出售您生产的产品，或者如果您的设备磨损速度比预期快，那么摊销就不会很好地发挥作用。预测是一件棘手的事情——如果您的估计有误，您的单位投资成本可能会比您最初假设的要高得多。
Amortization depends on an accurate assessment of useful life, which is a prediction. Amortization doesn’t work well if you don’t sell what you produce or if your equipment wears out faster than expected. Predictions are a tricky business—if you’re wrong in your estimate, your investment may cost a lot more on a per-unit basis than you originally assumed.
Crocs 生产看起来很有趣的橡胶鞋。在 Crocs 出人意料地大受欢迎之后，该公司开始大量生产：他们在中国开设了一家工厂并开始生产数百万双鞋子，期望他们能够继续销售每件生产的鞋子。事实证明，Crocs 是一种时尚——销售额直线下降，公司被大量昂贵的制造能力和无法销售的大量库存所困。摊销无法使公司免于破产。
Crocs makes funny-looking rubber shoes. After Crocs became an unexpected hit, the company ramped up for huge volumes: they opened a factory in China and started producing millions of shoes on the expectation that they’d continue to sell each unit produced. As it turned out, Crocs were a fad—sales plummeted, and the company was stuck with a lot of expensive manufacturing capacity and huge amounts of inventory it couldn’t sell. Amortization couldn’t save the company from careening toward bankruptcy.
使用摊销来确定一项大投资是否值得是明智的——只要记住你是在做预测，你所做的每一个预测都有不可避免的风险。
Using Amortization to figure out whether or not a big investment is worth it is smart—just remember you’re making a prediction, and every prediction you make has unavoidable risks.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/amortization/
购买力
Purchasing Power
企业家的工作是确保公司不会耗尽现金。
The job of the entrepreneur is to make sure the company doesn’t run out of cash.
——WILLIAM A. SAHLMAN，哈佛商学院教授
—WILLIAM A. SAHLMAN, PROFESSOR AT HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL
您可能听过一句古老的商业格言：“现金为王。”
Here’s an old business adage you may have heard: “Cash is king.”
这是真的。账面上可以有数百万美元的订单，但银行里没有现金，那也没关系。欠条不支付账单——如果你不能支付你的员工或维持正常运转，你就完蛋了。
It’s true. You can have millions of dollars in orders on the books, but without cash in the bank, it doesn’t matter. IOUs don’t pay the bills—if you can’t pay your employees or keep the lights on, you’re done.
购买力是企业拥有的所有流动资产的总和。这包括您的现金、信贷和任何可用的外部融资。更多的购买力总是更好，只要你明智地使用这种力量。
Purchasing Power is the sum total of all liquid assets a business has at its disposal. That includes your cash, credit, and any outside financing that’s available. More Purchasing Power is always better, as long as you use that power wisely.
购买力是您用来支付间接费用和供应商的费用。只要您继续向他们付款，您就可以开展业务。一旦您的购买力用完，您就完蛋了。游戏结束。
Purchasing Power is what you use to pay your Overhead and your suppliers. As long as you continue to pay them, you’re in business. As soon as you run out of Purchasing Power, you’re finished. Game over.
始终跟踪您有多少购买力可用。你在银行里有多少现金？您可以获得多少可用信用？您拥有的购买力越多，您的生活就越好。
Always keep track of how much Purchasing Power you have available. How much cash do you have in the bank? How much available credit do you have access to? The more Purchasing Power you have, the better off you are.
跟踪您的可用购买力可以更轻松地开展业务。无需担心支付账单，购买力让您有喘息的空间，确信您不会突然花光钱。这释放了大量的精神和情感能量，您可以更好地利用它——弄清楚如何改善您的业务。
Keeping track of your available Purchasing Power makes it much easier to run a business. Instead of worrying about paying the bills, Purchasing Power gives you room to breathe, secure in the knowledge that you’re not going to suddenly run out of money. That frees up a great deal of mental and emotional energy you can put to better use—figuring out how to improve your business.
始终密切关注您还剩下多少购买力——这是保持营业的企业与倒闭的企业之间的区别。
Always pay close attention to how much Purchasing Power you have left—it’s the difference between a business that stays open and a business that fails.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/purchasing-power/
现金流周期
Cash Flow Cycle
所有真相都可以在现金账户中找到。
All truth is found in the cash account.
—CHARLIE BAHR，管理顾问
—CHARLIE BAHR, MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT
资金以可预测的方式流经企业。如果您了解收入、费用、应收账款和信贷的运作方式，您就可以确保手头继续拥有足够的购买力来继续运营并最大限度地利用可用选项。
Money flows through a business in predictable ways. If you understand how revenue, expenses, receivables, and credit work, you can ensure that you continue to have enough Purchasing Power on hand to continue operation and maximize your available options.
现金流量周期描述了现金流量如何流经企业。将您企业的银行账户想象成一个浴缸。如果你想让浴缸里的水上升，你可以加更多的水，防止水从排水管漏出来。流入的水越多，流出的水越少，浴缸中的水位就越高。收入和支出的运作方式相同：您的银行账户是现金存量，它会根据您的收入和支出而增加或减少。
The Cash Flow Cycle describes how cash flows through a business. Think of your business’s bank account like a bathtub. If you want the water in the bathtub to rise, you add more water and keep it from leaking out via the drain. The more water that flows in and the less that flows out, the higher the level of water in the tub. Revenues and expenses work the same way: your bank account is a Stock of cash that increases or decreases based on your income and payments.
应收账款是您从他人那里接受的付款承诺。应收账款很有吸引力，因为它们感觉就像是一种销售——有人答应给你钱，这很好。然而，有一个问题：应收账款在承诺兑现之前不会转化为现金。欠条不是现金——承诺转化为付款的速度越快，您的现金流就越好。许多企业以数百万美元的账面“销售额”关闭。
Receivables are promises of payment you’ve accepted from others. Receivables are attractive, because they feel like a sale—someone has promised to give you money, which is great. There’s a catch, however: receivables don’t translate into cash until the promise is fulfilled. IOUs are not cash—the faster that promise is translated into payment, the better your cash flow. Many businesses have closed with millions of dollars of “sales” on the books.
债务是您做出的在以后向某人付款的承诺。债务是有吸引力的，因为你可以从现在购买中获益，同时持有你的现金直到以后。您支付的时间越晚，您可以支配的现金就越多。债务可能有用，但也有一个问题：债务以利息的形式花费额外的钱。通常，随着时间的推移，您还必须偿还一部分债务，这称为“还本付息”，您可以将其视为另一种费用。如果您无法偿还债务，那您就有麻烦了。
Debt is a promise you make to pay someone at a later date. Debt is attractive because you can benefit from a purchase now while holding on to your cash until later. The later you pay, the more cash you have at your disposal. Debt can be useful, but there’s also a catch: debts cost additional money in the form of interest. Very often, you’ll also have to pay back a portion of your debt over time, which is called “debt service,” which you can treat as another type of expense. If you can’t cover your debt service, you’re in trouble.
最大化您的现金可以直接解决问题：带来更多收入并削减成本。增加您的利润率，增加销售量，减少您的收入支出将改善您的现金流。
Maximizing your cash tackles the issue in a direct way: bring in more revenue and cut costs. Increasing your Profit Margin, making more sales, and spending less of what you bring in will improve your cash flow.
推迟付款或与债权人协商延长还款期也有助于缓解现金紧缩。如果你有一个供应商，供应商，或愿意让您稍后付款以换取现在接收材料或能力的合作伙伴，这使您现在可以在银行帐户中保留更多现金。你必须仔细观察这个习惯：如果你不记录你欠了多少钱和何时到期，债务可能会失控。但是，如果处理得当，稍后向债权人付款可能会非常有用，特别是对于营销费用。借 1 美元赚 10 美元是一笔不错的交易；如果您能够在第一张账单到期前几个月这样做，那就更好了。
Deferring payment or negotiating a longer repayment period with your creditors can also help alleviate a cash crunch. If you have a supplier, vendor, or partner who is willing to let you pay later in exchange for receiving materials or capabilities now, that allows you to keep more cash in your bank account now. You must watch this Habit carefully: debts can get out of hand if you don’t keep track of how much you owe and when it’s due. When done properly, however, paying creditors later can be quite useful, particularly for marketing expenses. Borrowing $1 to make $10 is a good trade; it’s even better if you’re able to do that for months before the first bill comes due.
要改善您的现金状况，最好加快收款速度并减少信贷延期。您获得付款的速度越快，您的现金流状况就越好。理想情况下，尝试立即获得报酬，甚至在购买原材料和交付价值之前。
To improve your cash situation, it’s best to speed up collections and reduce the extension of credit. The faster you get paid, the better your cash flow situation. Ideally, try to get paid immediately, even before buying raw materials and delivering value.
向客户提供信贷在许多行业中很常见，但这并不意味着您也必须这样做。永远记住，您是一家企业，而不是一家银行（除非您的企业涉及贷款）——尽快收取任何未付款项。
It’s common in many industries to extend credit to customers, but that doesn’t mean you have to as well. Always remember that you’re a business, not a bank (unless your business involves Loans)—collect any outstanding payments as soon as possible.
如有必要，您可以通过承担额外债务或开设信贷额度来提高您的购买力。如果不需要，最好避免使用债务或信贷额度，但增加可用信贷会增加您的购买力。将这些账户视为备用资金来源——仅供紧急使用。
If necessary, you can increase your Purchasing Power by taking on additional debt or opening lines of credit. It’s best to avoid using debt or lines of credit if you don’t need to, but increasing available credit increases your Purchasing Power. Think of these accounts as backup funding sources—for emergency use only.
您拥有的购买力越多，您的业务就越有弹性，您处理意外情况的能力也就越强。
The more Purchasing Power you have, the more Resilient your business is and the better your ability to handle the unexpected.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/cash-flow-cycle/
职责分离
Segregation of Duties
资本主义面临的挑战是，滋生信任的事物也会滋生欺诈的环境。
The challenge for capitalism is that the things that breed trust also breed the environment for fraud.
—JAMES SUROWIECKI，美国商业记者
—JAMES SUROWIECKI, AMERICAN BUSINESS JOURNALIST
企业变得越大越复杂，员工、承包商和供应商就越容易挪用资金、窃取商品或以其他方式欺骗企业。
The larger and more complex a business becomes, the easier it is for employees, contractors, and vendors to embezzle funds, steal merchandise, or otherwise defraud the business.
会计师和财务专业人士依靠一种称为职责分离的系统来防止各种不正当活动。该系统是旨在减少欺诈和盗窃案件，限制一个人完成以下业务流程的能力：
Accountants and finance professionals rely on a system called Segregation of Duties to prevent all sorts of shady activities. The system, which is intended to reduce cases of fraud and theft, limits a single person’s ability to complete the following business processes:
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授权：审查、批准或监督交易。
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Authorization: reviewing, approving, or overseeing a Transaction.
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托管：接收、访问或控制与该交易相关的任何资产。
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Custody: receiving, accessing, or controlling any assets related to that Transaction.
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记录保存：创建和存储与每笔交易相关的会计记录。
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Record keeping: creating and storing accounting records related to each Transaction.
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对账：验证两组记录，如公司内部交易记录和外部银行对账单，在时间和金额方面是否匹配。
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Reconciliation: verifying that two sets of records, like internal company Transaction records and external bank statements, match with respect to timing and amount.
职责分离背后的核心原则是多方验证：组织中的任何个人都无法完成与单个交易相关的所有这四个流程。在大多数情况下，任何特定的人都可以自己完成其中的一两个活动，但其余的必须由另一个人完成和/或验证。
The core principle behind Segregation of Duties is multiparty verification: no individual in the organization is able to complete all four of these processes concerning a single Transaction. In most cases, any specific person might be able to complete one or two of these activities on their own, but the rest must be done and/or verified by another individual.
多方验证的典型例子是常见的公司银行业务实践：任何超过一定门槛的支票、银行转账或其他支付工具都需要公司两名授权人员的签名。除非存在两个签名，否则付款无效并被标记以供调查。
The classic example of multiparty verification is common corporate banking practice: any check, bank transfer, or other instrument of payment above a certain threshold requires the signature of two authorized officers of the company. Unless two signatures are present, the payment isn’t valid and is flagged for investigation.
这个简单的规则可以防止各种金融恶作剧。是什么阻止了 CEO 在未经所有者或董事会批准的情况下决定将自己的薪水加倍？简单：由薪资经理授权加薪，以及薪资系统保存的记录，可用于识别和证明CEO的不当行为。
This simple rule prevents all sorts of financial shenanigans. What prevents a CEO from deciding to double their own salary without approval from the owners or the board of directors? Easy: authorization of the increase by the payroll manager, along with records kept by the payroll system, which can be used to identify and prove the CEO’s misconduct.
是什么阻止了直接访问薪资系统的薪资经理将自己的工资加倍？公司高管的现金流量表和内部控制，这可能会暴露薪资经理无法隐藏的高于预期的费用。
What prevents the payroll manager—who has direct access to the payroll system—from doubling their own salary? Cash Flow Statements and Internal Controls by company executives, which can expose a higher-than-expected expense the payroll manager can’t hide.
是什么阻止了 CEO 和薪资经理密谋在未经批准的情况下增加他们的工资？银行报表和交易记录，可以向首席财务官 (CFO) 或其他执行官发出信号，表明发生了可疑的事情。每一个部分该系统由不止一个人监督，因此不当行为更难犯下，也更容易被发现。
What prevents the CEO and the payroll manager from conspiring to increase both of their salaries without approval? Bank statements and transaction records, which can signal to the chief financial officer (CFO) or other executive officers that something fishy is going on. Every part of the system is overseen by more than one individual, so misconduct is more difficult to commit and easier to spot.
在处理有形资产和现金时，职责分离也很有用。由不止一个人负责订购、接收和保存每份订单和交付的记录，这使得以不当方式转移资金或资产变得更加困难，因为该计划需要不止一个人的合作。如果有其他人预计会收到未送达的订单或负责审核库存记录以确保一切准确无误，那么订购和库存欺诈就更难逃脱惩罚。
Segregation of Duties is also useful when dealing with physical assets and cash. Having more than one person responsible for ordering, receiving, and keeping records of every order and delivery makes it more difficult to divert money or assets in inappropriate ways, since the scheme would require more than one person to cooperate. Ordering and inventory fraud is more difficult to get away with if there’s another individual who’s expecting to receive an order that doesn’t arrive or is charged with auditing the inventory records to ensure everything is accurate.
大多数欺诈活动发生在当权者或负责人认识到潜在的作弊机会并认为被发现的可能性很低时。2职责分离是通过从源头上切断欺诈来减少欺诈的一种简单直接的方法：它减少了不当行为的潜在机会，增加了发现不当行为的可能性，并增加了必须共同努力以防止欺诈的人数骗取生意。
Most fraudulent activity occurs when someone in a position of power or responsibility recognizes the potential opportunity to cheat and believes there’s a low probability of being detected.2 Segregation of Duties is a simple and direct way to reduce fraud by cutting it off at the source: it reduces potential opportunities for misconduct, raises the probability someone will discover the wrongdoing, and increases the number of people who would have to work together to defraud the business.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/segregation-of-duties/
有限授权
Limited Authorization
愚蠢的后果往往比恶意的意图更残忍。
Folly is often more cruel in the consequence than malice can be in the intent.
——乔治·萨维尔，哈利法克斯侯爵
—GEORGE SAVILE, FIRST MARQUESS OF HALIFAX
还有另一种简单有效的方法可以防止潜在的不当行为。有限授权是一个直截了当的原则：最好限制每个人在其职责范围之外的领域的行动能力。
There’s another simple and effective way to prevent potential misconduct. Limited Authorization is a straightforward principle: it’s best to limit each individual’s ability to act in areas that are outside the scope of their responsibilities.
如果不需要或不需要访问资产或授权，则应默认保留。如果在特殊情况下需要访问或授权，则应临时授予，并以通过要求多人授权该操作来保持职责分离的方式授予。能够授权从企业银行账户付款的人越少，发生这种情况的可能性就越低不当付款，并且更容易识别不良行为者、欺诈或安全漏洞。
If access to an asset or authorization isn’t required or necessary, it should be withheld by default. If access or authorization is needed in special cases, it should be granted on a temporary basis and in a way that preserves Segregation of Duties by requiring more than one person to authorize the action. The fewer the people capable of authorizing a payment from the business’s bank account, the lower the likelihood of inappropriate payments, and the easier it is to identify bad actors, fraud, or security breaches.
这一原则在财务控制之外很有用。想象一下，一家软件公司授予其所有员工和承包商对其软件系统的完整、无限制和无人监督的访问权限。这样做可能有好处：公司中的每个人都可以随时修复或改进系统的任何方面。然而，这种方法存在一个固有的严重风险：公司中的每个人也有能力随时破坏系统的任何部分。
This principle is useful outside of financial controls. Imagine a software company that grants all of its employees and contractors complete, unlimited, and unsupervised access to its software systems. There might be advantages to doing this: everyone in the company would have the ability to fix or improve any aspect of the system at any time. There is, however, a severe risk inherent in this approach: everyone in the company would also have the ability to break any part of the system at any time.
在最坏的情况下，心怀不满的员工或承包商将能够关闭系统、访问敏感信息、更改关键数据或删除备份和故障保险，从而无法恢复。也没有什么能阻止好心的员工或承包商意外地完成同样的事情。如果发生任何这些事情，都会造成严重的损害，甚至可能导致公司破产和倒闭。
In the worst case, a disgruntled employee or contractor would be able to shut down the system, access sensitive information, alter critical data, or delete backups and Fail-safes in a way that would make recovery impossible. There’s also nothing preventing a well-meaning employee or contractor from accomplishing the same thing by accident. If any of those things happened, it would cause severe damage, up to and including the potential bankruptcy and closure of the company.
授予授权是一种平衡摩擦和认知切换惩罚与风险的练习：在授予过多访问权限和授予过少访问权限之间存在中间路径。授权应该根据Trust、Earned Regard和当前职责随着时间的推移而改变。
Granting authorization is an exercise in balancing Friction and Cognitive Switching Penalties against risk: there’s a Middle Path between granting too much access and granting too little. Authorization is something that should change over time on the basis of Trust, Earned Regard, and current responsibilities.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/limited-authorization/
机会成本
Opportunity Cost
与任何其他职业相比，商业是一种不断应对未来的工作；这是一种持续的计算，一种本能的预见性练习。
Business, more than any other occupation, is a continual dealing with the future; it is a continual calculation, an instinctive exercise in foresight.
—HENRY R. LUCE，时代公司的出版商和创始人
—HENRY R. LUCE, PUBLISHER AND FOUNDER OF TIME INC.
假设您决定辞去年薪 50,000 美元的工作并开始创业。创业本身会有成本，但它也会让你付出 50,000 美元的代价，如果你继续工作的话。
Let’s say you decide to quit your $50,000-a-year job and start a business. Starting the business will have costs of its own, but it will also cost you the $50,000 you would have made had you stayed at your job.
机会成本是您因做出决定而放弃的价值。我们不能同时做所有事情——我们不能一次在一个以上的地方，也不能在两件不同的事情上花同样的钱。
Opportunity Cost is the value you’re giving up by making a Decision. We can’t do everything at once—we can’t be in more than one place at a time or spend the same dollar on two different things.
每当您投入时间、精力或资源时，您就选择不以任何其他方式投入这些时间、精力或资源。Next Best Alternative创造的价值就是该决策的机会成本。
Whenever you invest time, energy, or resources, you’re choosing not to invest that time, energy, or resources in any other way. The value that would have been created by your Next Best Alternative is the Opportunity Cost of that decision.
机会成本很重要，因为总有其他选择。如果你在一家年薪 30,000 美元的公司工作，而你可以选择跳槽到一家年薪 200,000 美元的公司从事同样的工作，你为什么要留下来？如果您支付给您的员工或承包商的报酬低于他们在其他地方从事相同工作的报酬，他们为什么要为您工作？如果您的客户可以花 20 美元买到您要价 200 美元的东西，他们为什么要向您购买？
Opportunity Cost is important because there are always other options. If you’re working for a company that’s paying you $30,000 a year and you have the option to move to a company that’s paying $200,000 a year for the same work, why would you stay? If you’re paying your employees or contractors less than they could make elsewhere for the same work, why would they work for you? If your customers can spend $20 to get something you’re charging $200 for, why would they buy from you?
机会成本很重要，因为它是隐藏的。正如我们稍后将讨论的，在Absence Blindness中，人类很难注意不存在的东西。注意通过做出决定而放弃的内容有助于您在做出决定之前考虑所有选择。
Opportunity Cost is important because it’s hidden. As we’ll discuss later, in Absence Blindness, humans have a hard time paying attention to what’s not present. Paying attention to what you’re giving up by making a Decision helps you consider all of your options before making a decision.
然而，过分关注机会成本会让你发疯。如果你是一个天生的最大化者（就像我一样），很容易过度分析每个决定以确保你选择了可用的最佳选项，这可能远远超过收益递减点。不要被所有可用的选项所困扰——只考虑在您做决定时看起来最好的选择。
Obsessing over Opportunity Cost too much, however, can drive you crazy. If you’re a natural maximizer (like I am), it’s tempting to overanalyze every Decision to make sure you’ve chosen the very best option available, which can go well past the point of Diminishing Returns. Don’t get bogged down with all of the options available—consider only what appear to be the best alternatives at the time of your decision.
如果您注意决策的机会成本，您将更好地利用您可以支配的资源。
If you pay attention to the Opportunity Costs of your decisions, you’ll make much better use of the resources at your disposal.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/opportunity-cost/
货币时间价值
Time Value of Money
他们总是说时间会改变事情，但实际上你必须自己改变它们。
They always say time changes things, but you actually have to change them yourself.
——安迪·沃霍尔，艺术家
—ANDY WARHOL, ARTIST
你愿意今天拥有 100 万美元还是五年后拥有 100 万美元？
Would you rather have $1 million today or $1 million five years from now?
答案很明显：为什么要等待？现在有了钱意味着你可以现在花掉它，或者现在就投资它。一百万美元，投资于复利 5% 的利率，五年后将为 1,276,281.56 美元。如果不需要，为什么要放弃额外的 270,000 美元？
The answer is obvious: Why wait? Having the money now means you can spend it now, or invest it now. A million dollars, invested at a Compounding interest rate of 5 percent, will be $1,276,281.56 five years from now. Why give up the extra $270,000 if you don’t need to?
今天的一美元比明天的一美元更值钱。多多少取决于你选择用那美元做什么。你投资那美元的有利可图的选择越多，它就越有价值。
A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. How much more depends on what you choose to do with that dollar. The more profitable options you have to invest that dollar, the more valuable it is.
计算货币的时间价值是在面对机会成本时做出决策的一种方式。假设您有多种不同回报的投资基金选择，货币时间价值可以帮助您确定选择哪些选项以及您应该花多少钱，给定的选择。
Calculating the Time Value of Money is a way of making Decisions in the face of Opportunity Costs. Assuming you have various options of investing funds with various returns, the Time Value of Money can help you determine which options to choose and how much you should spend, given the alternatives.
让我们回到 100 万美元的例子：假设有人向您提供一项投资，将在一年内无风险地交付 100 万美元。您今天应该愿意为此支付的最高金额是多少？
Let’s go back to the $1 million example: Assume someone offers you an investment that will deliver $1 million risk free in one year’s time. What’s the maximum amount you should be willing to pay for it today?
假设您的Next Best Alternative是另一项利率为 5% 的无风险投资，您支付的金额不应超过 952,380 美元。为什么？因为如果您将这笔金额投资于您的 Next Best Alternatives，您将拥有 100 万美元：1,000,000 美元除以 1.05（5% 的利率/贴现率）等于 952,380 美元。如果您能以低于该金额的价格购买第一笔投资，您就会领先。
Assuming your Next Best Alternative is another risk-free investment with a 5 percent interest rate, you shouldn’t pay anything more than $952,380. Why? Because if you took that amount and invested it in your Next Best Alternative, you’d have $1 million: $1,000,000 divided by 1.05 (the 5 percent interest/discount rate) equals $952,380. If you can buy the first investment for less than that amount, you’ll be ahead.
货币的时间价值是一个非常古老的概念——它在 16 世纪初由西班牙神学家 Martín de Azpilcueta 首次解释。今天的一美元比明天的一美元更值钱这一核心观点可以扩展到许多常见的财务状况。
The Time Value of Money is a very old idea—it was first explained in the early sixteenth century by the Spanish theologian Martín de Azpilcueta. The central insight that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow can be extended to apply to many common financial situations.
例如，金钱的时间价值可以帮助您计算出您愿意为每年赚取 200,000 美元利润的企业支付的最高金额。假设利率为 5%，没有增长，可预见的未来为 10 年，那么这一系列未来现金流的“现值”为 1,544,347 美元。如果您支付的金额少于该金额，只要您的假设是正确的，您就会领先。（注：这是我们在四种定价方法一节中讨论的“贴现现金流量法” 。）
For example, the Time Value of Money can help you figure out the maximum you should be willing to pay for a business that earns $200,000 in profit each year. Assuming an interest rate of 5 percent, no growth, and a foreseeable future of ten years, the “present value” of that series of future cash flows is $1,544,347. If you pay less than that amount, you’ll come out ahead as long as your assumptions are correct. (Note: this is the “discounted cash flow method” we discussed in the section on the Four Pricing Methods.)
货币的时间价值是一个用途广泛的概念，对它的全面探讨超出了本书的范围。要进行更深入的检查，我建议选择Robert A. Cooke的 The McGraw-Hill 36-Hour Course in Finance for Nonfinancial Managers。
The Time Value of Money is a versatile concept, and a full exploration of it is beyond the scope of this book. For a more in-depth examination, I recommend picking up The McGraw-Hill 36-Hour Course in Finance for Nonfinancial Managers by Robert A. Cooke.
REFERENCE LINK: https://personalmba.com/time-value-of-money/
复利
Compounding
每天提高 1%，只需 70 天，您的成绩就会提高一倍。
Improve by 1% a day, and in just 70 days, you’re twice as good.
—ALAN WEISS，顾问
—ALAN WEISS, CONSULTANT
这是成为百万富翁的必经之路：以赚取 8% 利息的方式，每天存 10 美元，存 40 年。每天节省 10 美元并不难——通过消除不必要的开支，您每月可以节省 300 美元。通过将这笔钱投资于股市，您可以获得 8% 的回报：标准普尔 500 指数在过去五年中产生了 8% 的平均年回报率。
Here’s a surefire way to become a millionaire: save $10 a day for forty years in a way that earns 8 percent interest. Saving $10 a day isn’t difficult—you can save $300 a month by eliminating unnecessary expenses. And you can earn 8 percent by investing that money in the stock market: the S&P 500 produced an average annual return of 8 percent return over the past five decades.
更令人惊奇的是：在这四十年的时间里，您只会贡献 146,110 美元。那么，您如何最终获得超过 100 万美元的资金呢？
Here’s what’s even more amazing: you’ll only contribute $146,110 over that forty-year span. How, then, do you end up with over $1 million?
复利是随着时间的推移积累收益。只要您能够对收益进行再投资，您的投资就会以指数级增长——一个正反馈循环。
Compounding is the Accumulation of gains over time. Whenever you’re able to reinvest gains, your investment will build upon itself exponentially—a positive Feedback Loop.
复利的一个简单例子是储蓄账户。假设您的储蓄账户赚取 5% 的利息。一年后，您银行账户中的 1 美元将价值 1.05 美元。在第二年，您不是从 1 美元开始，而是从 1.05 美元开始。第三年，您将获得 1.10 美元。在第四年，你将有 1.15 美元。在您进行初始存款 14 年后，您将获得 2 美元。
A simple example of Compounding is a savings account. Let’s say your savings account earns 5 percent interest. After a year, $1 in your bank account is going to be worth $1.05. In year two, you don’t start with $1—you start with $1.05. In year three, you’ll have $1.10. In year four, you’ll have $1.15. Fourteen years after you make the initial deposit, you’ll have $2.
在您考虑这种关系扩展之前，这听起来并不多。如果你从 100 万美元开始，14 年后你将拥有 200 万美元。一点也不差。
That doesn’t sound like much until you consider that this relationship Scales. If you start with $1 million, you’ll have $2 million after fourteen years. Not bad at all.
复利很重要，因为它创造了在短时间内获得巨大收益的可能性。如果您将您的业务产生的收入再投资并且您的业务正在快速增长，您可以将您的原始投资翻倍。复利是解释小公司如何在短短几年内将利润再投资成为大公司的秘诀。
Compounding is important because it creates the possibility of huge gains in short periods of time. If you reinvest the revenue your business generates and your business is growing rapidly, you can multiply your original investment many times over. Compounding is the secret that explains how small companies that reinvest their profits become large companies in a few short years.
随着时间的推移，积累收益会产生巨大的成果。诀窍是要有足够的耐心等待奖励。
Accumulating gains produces huge results over time. The trick is to be patient enough to wait for the reward.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/compounding/
杠杆作用
Leverage
我们因不理解杠杆这个词的含义而受到批评。. . 我们确实知道杠杆意味着什么，在银行里拥有几百万美元的现金比高杠杆要好得多。
We’ve been criticized for not understanding what the word leverage means . . . We do know what leverage means, and having a few million dollars cash in the bank is much nicer than being heavily leveraged.
—肯尼斯·奥尔森，数字设备公司联合创始人
—KENNETH H. OLSEN, COFOUNDER OF THE DIGITAL EQUIPMENT CORPORATION
使用“别人的钱”听起来像是发财的好方法。借一些钱，发大财，偿还贷款，剩下的留着。还有什么比这更好的？
Using “other people’s money” sounds like a great way to make a fortune. Borrow some money, make a fortune, pay back your lender, and keep the rest. What could be better?
如果您意识到风险，通过向他人借钱来赚钱是明智的。
Making money by borrowing from others can be savvy, provided you’re aware of the risks.
杠杆是使用借来的钱来放大潜在收益的做法。举个例子：假设您有 20,000 美元想要投资房地产。您可以将这笔钱用作 100,000 美元房产的 20% 首付款，借入 80,000 美元，但这会将您所有的钱都用于一次投资。
Leverage is the practice of using borrowed money to magnify potential gains. Here’s an example: let’s assume you have $20,000 you’d like to invest in real estate. You could use that money as a 20 percent down payment on a $100,000 property, borrowing $80,000, but that ties up all of your money in a single investment.
与其将 20,000 美元用于单笔首付款，不如用相同的资金池投资四处价值 100,000 美元的房产，每处房产的首付款为 5,000 美元。该策略需要四次借入 95,000 美元——总计 380,000 美元的贷款。
Instead of using the $20,000 for a single down payment, you could take the same pool of money and invest in four $100,000 properties, each with a down payment of $5,000. That strategy requires borrowing $95,000 four times—a total of $380,000 in loans.
这就是魔法发生的地方。让我们假设所有房产的价值都翻了一番，然后你卖掉了它们。在第一种情况下，您将通过 20,000 美元的投资赚取 100,000 美元 - 20,000 美元首付款的 5 倍回报。在第二种情况下，同样是 20,000 美元的首付，您将赚取 400,000 美元——20 倍的投资回报率。杠杆似乎很简单，对吧？
Here’s where the magic happens. Let’s assume all of the properties double in value, and you sell them. In the first scenario, you’d make $100,000 on a $20,000 investment—a 5x return on your $20,000 down payment. In the second scenario, you’d make $400,000 on the very same $20,000 down payment—a 20x return on investment. Leverage seems like a no-brainer, right?
没那么快——如果每处房产的价值都下降了，你把它们全部卖掉以尽可能多地收回钱，会发生什么？假设财产价值下降 50%，在第一种情况下您将损失 50,000 美元。在第二种情况下，杠杆的使用会将您的损失放大到 200,000 美元——是原来的四倍。
Not so fast—what will happen if the value of each property drops, and you sell them all to get back as much money as possible? Assuming the property value drops by 50 percent, in the first scenario you’d lose $50,000. In the second scenario, the use of Leverage will magnify your losses to $200,000—four times as much.
杠杆是财务放大的一种形式——它放大了收益和损失的可能性。当您的投资获得回报时，杠杆会帮助它获得更多回报。当你的投资失败时，你会损失更多的钱。
Leverage is a form of financial Amplification—it magnifies the potential for both gains and losses. When your investment pays off, Leverage helps it pay off more. When your investment tanks, you lose more money than you would otherwise.
2008-2009 年经济衰退的主要促成因素之一是投资银行使用大量杠杆。银行将其投资杠杆化三十或四十倍的情况并不少见。当特定股票的价值上涨或下跌一个百分点时，就会赚取或损失数百万（或数十亿）美元。当市场崩盘时，一家银行的损失被其所承担的杠杆数额放大，这足以威胁到整个公司的生存。
One of the major contributing factors of the recession of 2008–2009 was the use of enormous amounts of Leverage by investment banks. It wasn’t uncommon for banks to Leverage their investments by a factor of thirty or forty. Millions (or billions) of dollars were made or lost when the value of a particular stock went up or down by a single percentage point. When the market crashed, a bank’s losses were magnified by the amount of Leverage it had taken on, which was more than enough to threaten the entire firm’s existence.
使用杠杆就像在玩火——如果使用得当，它可能是一个有用的工具，但它也会烧死你。除非您完全了解后果并准备好接受，否则切勿使用杠杆。否则，您会将您的业务和个人财务状况置于风险之中。
Using Leverage is playing with fire—it can be a useful tool if used properly, but it can also burn you. Never use Leverage unless you’re fully aware of the consequences and are prepared to accept them. Otherwise, you’re putting your business and personal financial situation at risk.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/leverage/
资助等级
Hierarchy of Funding
金钱往往花费太多。
Money often costs too much.
——拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生，十九世纪散文家和诗人
—RALPH WALDO EMERSON, NINETEENTH-CENTURY ESSAYIST AND POET
想象一下，您发明了一种反重力装置，可以在不需要太多能量的情况下使固体物体漂浮起来。您的发明将彻底改变运输和制造业，使许多新产品成为可能。对你的发明的需求是给定的——你需要做的就是创造足够的设备来满足需求。
Imagine you’ve invented an antigravity device that can levitate solid objects without requiring much power. Your invention will revolutionize the transportation and manufacturing industries, making many new products possible. Demand for your invention is a given—all you need to do is create enough devices to fill the demand.
然而，有一个问题——估计表明，使用制造这些设备所需的设备来装配一条生产线将花费 10 亿美元，但您没有 10 亿美元可以闲置。您的设备解决了一个巨大的问题，但下一步遥不可及。你做什么工作？
There’s a problem, however—estimates indicate that tooling up a production line with the equipment you need to build these devices will cost $1 billion, but you don’t have $1 billion to spare. Your device solves a huge problem, but the next step is out of reach. What do you do?
资金可以帮助您完成当前预算不可能完成的事情。如果您的企业需要昂贵的设备或许多员工来创造和交付价值，您可能需要外部资金。我们中很少有人在我们的银行账户中有巨额资金等待使用，但很容易联系到那些有的人。
Funding can help you do things that would otherwise be impossible with your current budget. If your business requires expensive equipment or many workers to create and deliver value, you’ll probably need outside funding. Few of us have enormous sums of money in our bank accounts waiting to be used, but it’s easy to reach out to those who do.
资金是火箭燃料的商业等价物。如果您的企业需要加快步伐并且已经指明了正确的方向，明智地使用融资可以帮助您加速运营的增长。如果企业存在结构性问题，它就会爆发，而且不会以好的方式出现。
Funding is the business equivalent of rocket fuel. If your business needs to move faster and is already pointed in the right direction, judicious use of financing can help you accelerate the operation’s growth. If the business has structural issues, it will explode, and not in a good way.
为了获得资金，通常需要放弃对企业运营的一定控制权。商人不会白给你钱——他们总是要求回报。
In order to obtain access to funding, it’s often necessary to give up a certain amount of control over the business’s operations. Businesspeople won’t give you money for nothing—they always ask for something in return.
请记住，提供资本是许多企业的一种价值形式。作为资源的交换，您的贷方或投资者正在寻找回报价值——利息、租赁付款或您公司利润的一部分。他们还在寻找一种方法来降低在业务倒闭时失去一切的风险。为了减轻这种风险，他们要求控制：影响企业运营的能力。你要的钱越多，他们想要的控制权就越多。
Remember, providing Capital is a form of value for many businesses. In exchange for resources, your lenders or investors are looking for value in return—interest, lease payments, or a share of your company’s profits. They’re also looking for a way to decrease their risk of losing everything if the business goes under. To alleviate this risk, they ask for control: the ability to influence the operations of the business. The more money you ask for, the more control they’ll want.
我认为想象一个资金层次结构是有用的：可用选项的阶梯。每个商人都从底层做起，并根据需要向上攀登。你爬得越高，获得的资金就越多，作为交换，你放弃的控制权也就越多。
I think it’s useful to imagine a Hierarchy of Funding: a ladder of available options. Every businessperson starts on the bottom and climbs as far up the ladder as necessary. The higher you climb, the more funding you get and the more control you give up in exchange.
让我们从底部开始检查资金的层次结构：
Let’s examine the Hierarchy of Funding, starting at the bottom:
个人现金是迄今为止最好的融资方式。投资您已有的现金既快捷又简单，无需批准或文书工作。大多数企业家都是从尽可能多地用现金为自己融资开始的。
Personal cash is by far the best form of financing. Investing cash you already own is quick and easy and requires no approval or paperwork. Most entrepreneurs begin by financing themselves out of cash as much as possible.
个人信贷是另一种低成本的融资方式。只要您的需求不超过几千美元，通过个人信用就可以很容易地支付费用。如果你有良好的信用，批准会很快，而且随着时间的推移付款有助于增加你的现金流。如果您无法付款，您就有可能毁掉您的个人信用评级（一种声誉），但对于许多企业家来说，这是值得冒的风险。
Personal credit is another low-cost method of financing. As long as your needs don’t exceed a few thousand dollars, it’s easy to finance expenses via personal credit. Approval is quick if you have good credit, and payment over time helps increase your cash flow. You risk ruining your personal credit rating (a form of Reputation) if you can’t make your payments, but for many entrepreneurs, that’s a risk worth taking.
我用现金和个人信贷为我的整个业务提供资金。如果您的需求不大，只要您注意预算，使用个人信用来支付您的启动费用是一个不错的选择。
I financed my entire business out of cash and personal credit. If your needs are modest, using personal credit to finance your start-up costs is a good option as long as you watch your budget.
个人贷款通常是由朋友和家人提供的。如果您需要的钱超出了个人现金和个人信用所能支付的范围，那么向朋友和家人借贷并不少见。请注意：您无法偿还的风险是非常真实的，并且可能会产生毁灭性的影响关于重要的人际关系。出于这个原因，我建议不要让你的父母或祖父母用他们毕生的积蓄来赌你的想法——有更好的方法。
Personal loans are often made by friends and family. If you need more money than you can cover via personal cash and personal credit, Loans from friends and family are not uncommon. Just be wary: the risk that you won’t be able to pay them back is very real and can have a devastating effect on important personal relationships. For that reason, I’d advise avoiding asking your parents or grandparents to gamble their life savings on your idea—there are better ways.
无抵押贷款通常由银行和信用合作社提供。你填一张申请表，要求一定数额的钱，银行会评估你在一定时期内连本带息偿还贷款的能力。贷款可以是一次性付款，也可以是可以随时使用的信用额度。银行不要求较小金额（几千美元）的抵押品，因此利率可能会比信用卡或担保贷款高一点。
Unsecured loans are usually made by banks and credit unions. You fill out an application and ask for a certain amount of money, and the bank will evaluate your ability to pay the loan back with interest over a certain time period. The loan can be either a lump sum or a line of credit that can be used at any time. The bank doesn’t ask for collateral for smaller amounts (a few thousand dollars), so the interest rate will probably be a bit higher than on a credit card or secured loan.
担保贷款需要抵押品。抵押贷款和汽车贷款是担保贷款的好例子：如果您不还款，贷方可以合法扣押承诺作为抵押品的财产。由于贷方随后可以出售该房产以收回资金，因此有担保贷款比无担保贷款大得多——数万或数十万美元。
Secured loans require collateral. Mortgages and automotive loans are good examples of secured loans: if you don’t make the payments, the lender can legally seize the property promised as collateral. Because the lender can then sell that property to recoup their funds, secured loans are much larger than unsecured loans—tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars.
债券是出售给个人贷方的债务。企业不向银行贷款，而是向个人或其他公司借钱。债券购买者向企业提供资金，并在一定时间内以商定的利率偿还。当时间到期（即债券“到期”）时，公司必须在已经支付的款项之外返还原始贷款金额。围绕债券市场的法律和监管程序可能很复杂，因此债券发行通常通过投资银行进行。
Bonds are debt sold to individual lenders. Instead of asking a bank for a loan, the business asks individuals or other companies to loan them money. Bond purchasers give money to the business, which is paid back at an agreed-upon rate for a certain amount of time. When the time expires (i.e., the bond “matures”), the company must give back the original loan amount in addition to the payments already made. The legal and regulatory process that surrounds the bond market can be complicated, so bond issues are usually conducted through an investment bank.
应收账款融资是企业特有的一种特殊类型的担保贷款。应收账款融资可以提供数百万美元的信贷，但要付出一定的代价：贷款的抵押品是对企业应收账款的控制。由于银行控制应收账款，他们可以确保先偿还贷款，包括员工工资和供应商承诺。有大量可用资金，但您正在放弃对贷方的大量控制权。
Receivables financing is a special type of secured lending unique to businesses. Receivables financing can make millions of dollars in credit available, but at a cost: the collateral for the loan is control over the business’s receivables. Since the bank controls the receivables, they can ensure their loan is paid before anything else, including employee salaries and vendor commitments. Large amounts of funding are available, but you’re giving up a great deal of control to the lender.
天使资本是我们从贷款转向资本的地方。“天使”是个人私人投资者——拥有多余财富并愿意投资于私人企业的人，通常是 10,000 到 100 万美元。作为交换，他们将拥有 1% 到 10% 的业务。
Angel capital is where we shift from Loans to Capital. An “angel” is an individual private investor—someone who has excess wealth they’d like to invest in a private business, usually $10,000 to $1 million. In exchange, they’ll own 1 to 10 percent of the business.
接受天使投资人有点像接受沉默的合伙人——他们给你资本，作为交换，你给他们部分合法所有权的业务。一些天使提供建议并可供咨询，但他们没有做出商业决策的权力。
Taking on an angel investor is a bit like taking on a silent partner—they give you Capital, and in exchange you give them partial legal ownership of the business. Some angels offer advice and are available for consulting, but they don’t have the power to make business decisions.
风险资本接管天使离开的地方。风险资本家 (VC) 是富有的投资者（或汇集资金的投资者群体），拥有大量可用资本：单笔投资数千万（或数亿美元）。通过风险投资进行的融资发生在“轮次”中，开始时规模较小，然后随着需要更多资本而增长。后来的几轮融资可能会稀释当前股东的所有权百分比，因此通常会涉及大量谈判。VC 也需要大量的控制权来换取大量的 Capital，这通常意味着在公司董事会中的席位。
Venture capital takes over where angels leave off. Venture capitalists (VCs) are wealthy investors (or groups of investors who pool their funds) with very large sums of Capital available: tens (or hundreds) of millions of dollars in a single investment. Funding via venture capital happens in “rounds” that start small, then grow as more Capital is needed. Later rounds can dilute the ownership percentage of current shareholders, so there’s often a great deal of negotiation involved. VCs also require large amounts of control in exchange for large amounts of Capital, which usually means seats on the company’s board of directors.
公开发行股票涉及在公开市场上向投资者出售公司的部分所有权。这通常是通过投资银行完成的：这些公司将为企业提供大量资本，以换取该公司的股票在公共股票市场上出售。投资银行通过在公开市场上以溢价向个人投资者出售他们购买的股票来赚钱。“首次公开募股”(IPO) 是一家公司在公开市场上首次公开发售的股票。
Public stock offerings involve selling partial ownership of the company to investors on the open market. This is usually done via investment banks: companies that will provide a business with enormous amounts of Capital in exchange for the shares of that company to sell on the public stock market. The investment banks make money by selling the shares they’ve purchased at a premium to individual investors on the open market. An “initial public offering” (IPO) is the first public stock offering a company offers on the open market.
任何购买股票的投资者都是公司的部分所有者，包括通过选举董事会参与管理决策的权利。谁拥有公司最多的股份，谁就控制了它，因此“上市”会产生恶意收购的风险：大量购买股份以控制公司。
Any investor who purchases shares is a partial owner of the company, which includes the right to participate in management decisions via electing the board of directors. Whoever owns the most shares in the company controls it, so “going public” creates the risk of a hostile takeover: the mass purchasing of shares in an effort to control the company.
公开发行股票通常被天使投资人和风险投资人用来交换所有权以换取金钱。投资者可以通过以下两种方式之一收取回报：获得分配公司利润的股息或将其股票出售给另一位投资者。公开发行股票使投资者能够出售其股票以换取资金，因此天使投资人和风险投资公司通常会推动成功的公司“上市”或被另一家公司收购以“兑现”投资。
Public stock offerings are usually used by angel and venture capital investors to exchange ownership for money. Investors can collect their returns in one of two ways: reaping dividends that distribute the Profits of the company or selling their shares to another investor. Public stock offerings enable investors to sell their shares in exchange for money, so it’s common for angels and VCs to push successful companies to “go public” or be acquired by another company in order to “cash out” of the investment.
你为获得的每一美元资金必须放弃的控制权越多，资金来源的吸引力就越小。在做出决定之前需要咨询的人越多，您的公司运营就会越慢。投资者增加了沟通开销，这会对您完成工作的能力产生不利影响。
The more control you must give up for each dollar of funding obtained, the less attractive the source of funding. The more people you’re required to consult with before making decisions, the slower your company will operate. Investors increase Communication Overhead, which can adversely affect your ability to get things done.
投资者罢免表现不佳的公司高管的情况也并不少见，即使这些高管是公司的创始人。即使是高高在上的高管也不能幸免：当苹果公司在 1990 年代表现不佳时，董事会将史蒂夫乔布斯从他共同创立的公司解雇了。明智的一句话：在你投入大量资本之前，要了解公司的董事会对公司的运营有多大的权力。
It’s also not uncommon for investors to remove executives of a company that’s not performing well, even if those executives are the founders of the company. Even high-flying executives aren’t immune: when Apple was performing poorly in the 1990s, the board of directors fired Steve Jobs from the company he cofounded. A word to the wise: before you take on large amounts of Capital, be aware of how much Power the business’s board of directors will have over the operation of the company.
资金可能很有用，但要小心不要放弃对企业运营的控制——除非资金是必不可少的，否则最好保持自主权。
Funding can be useful, but be wary of giving up control over your business’s operations—unless the funds are essential, err on the side of maintaining your autonomy.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/hierarchy-of-funding/
自举
Bootstrapping
Felix qui nihil debet。（不欠债的人是幸福的。）
Felix qui nihil debet. (Happy is he who owes nothing.)
——罗马谚语
—ROMAN PROVERB
你需要多少资金取决于你想做什么。如果你正在努力争取黄铜戒指——通过建立一家大型上市公司来积累巨大的财富——你可能需要融资。如果您的意图是自给自足并自由地做出自己的决定，那么最好避免融资以保持控制权。
How much financing you need depends on what you’re trying to do. If you’re grasping for the brass ring—accumulating enormous wealth by building a massive public company—you’ll probably need financing. If your intent is to be self-sufficient and free to make your own decisions, it’s much better to avoid financing in favor of retaining control.
自力更生是在没有资金的情况下建立和经营企业的艺术。不要假设创建成功企业的唯一方法是筹集数百万美元的风险投资——这是不正确的。通过限制自己使用个人现金、个人信用、企业收入和一点点聪明才智，您可以在根本不寻求资金的情况下建立成功的企业。我的公司通过支票账户、储蓄账户和商业信用卡运营，我喜欢这种方式。
Bootstrapping is the art of building and operating a business without funding. Don’t assume that the only way to create a successful business is by raising millions of dollars of venture capital—it’s not true. By limiting yourself to the use of personal cash, personal credit, the business’s revenue, and a little ingenuity, you can build successful businesses without seeking funding at all. My business operates via a checking account, a savings account, and a business credit card, and I like it that way.
Bootstrapping 允许您发展业务，同时保持对业务运营的 100% 控制。您无需征得其他任何人的同意即可做出您认为最佳的决定。缺点是发展业务可能需要更长的时间。谨慎使用，资金可以帮助使事情发生得更快。
Bootstrapping allows you to grow your business while maintaining 100 percent control over the business’s operations. You don’t have to get anyone else’s approval to make the decisions you think are best. The drawback is that growing the business can take much longer. Prudently used, funding can help make things happen faster than they’d happen otherwise.
如果您接受资助，请确保您使用它来做您喜欢的事情别无他法。Force Multipliers很有用但价格昂贵——为了获得关键能力而获得资金可能是明智的。否则，尽量从现金和营业收入中运作。
If you accept funding, make sure that you use it to do things that you couldn’t do any other way. Force Multipliers are useful but expensive—taking on funding in order to get access to critical capabilities can be smart. Otherwise, try to operate from cash and operating revenue as much as possible.
为获得最佳结果，尽可能引导，然后仅在需要时向上移动资金层次结构。拥有 100% 的所有权和对盈利、自给自足的业务的控制权是一件很棒的事情。
For best results, Bootstrap as far as you can go, then move up the Hierarchy of Funding only as needed. Having 100 percent ownership and control of a profitable, self-sustaining business is a wonderful thing.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/bootstrapping/
投资回报
Return on Investment
聪明的人知道底线并不总是最重要的。
Wise are those who learn that the bottom line doesn’t always have to be the top priority.
——威廉·A·沃德，格言家
—WILLIAM A. WARD, APHORIST
当您投资某样东西时，您期望它提供的价值超过您为它支付的价值。知道如何估算您将收到多少与您将投资多少是一项非常有用的技能。
When you invest in something, you expect it to provide more value than you paid for it. Knowing how to estimate how much you’ll receive versus how much you’d invest is a very useful skill.
投资 回报率 (ROI)是时间或资源投资所创造的价值。大多数人从货币的角度考虑投资回报率：如果您投资 1,000 美元并获得 100 美元的利润，那么您的投资回报率为 10%：($1,000 + 100 美元) / 1,000 美元 = 1.10，即 10%。如果您的投资回报率是 100%，那么您的初始投资就增加了一倍。
Return on Investment (ROI) is the value created from an investment of time or resources. Most people think of ROI in terms of currency: if you invest $1,000 and you collect $100 in profit, that’s a 10 percent return on your investment: ($1,000 + $100) / $1,000 = 1.10, or 10 percent. If your ROI is 100 percent, you’ve doubled your initial investment.
投资回报率可以帮助您在相互竞争的备选方案之间做出决定。如果您将钱存入储蓄账户，您的投资回报将等于银行给您的存款利率。如果您可以将钱存入一个利率为 2% 且费用没有差异的账户，为什么还要将您的钱存入利率为 1% 的账户？
Return on Investment can help you decide between competing alternatives. If you deposit money in a savings account, the return on your investment will be equal to the interest rate that the bank gives you to hold your money. Why put your money in an account that pays 1 percent interest if you can deposit that money in an account that pays 2 percent, with no difference in fees?
投资回报率的用途远远超出金钱：您也可以将其用于其他通用货币。投资时间回报率是分析您的努力收益的有用方法。如果你被迫每天 24 小时不停地工作一年以换取 100 万美元，你会做吗？当您比较回报与时间和理智的成本时，这是不值得的。
The usefulness of Return on Investment extends far beyond money: you can use it for the other Universal Currencies as well. Return on invested time is an useful way to analyze the benefits of your effort. If you were forced to work twenty-four hours a day nonstop for a year in exchange for $1 million, would you do it? When you look at the return versus the cost to your time and sanity, it’s not worth it.
每一项投资的回报总是与投资成本的多少有关。您花费的越多（在金钱和时间方面），您的回报就越低。即使是买房子或获得大学学位这样的“确定性赌注”，如果您为之付出太多，也不是明智之举。每次对回报的估计都是推测性的——你永远不知道结果会怎样。计算回报是一种预测未来的练习，这从根本上说是不可能的。
The return on every investment is always related to how much the investment costs. The more you spend (in terms of both money and time), the lower your return. Even “sure bets” like buying a house or getting a college degree aren’t wise if you pay too much for them. Every estimate of return is speculative—you never know how it’ll turn out. Calculating returns is an exercise in predicting the future, which is fundamentally impossible.
每个未来的 ROI 估计都是半有根据的猜测。只有在进行投资并获得回报后，您才能确定您的投资回报率。这个世界上没有什么事情是万无一失的——无论潜在的投资回报率看起来有多高，在进行投资之前都要考虑到出现问题的风险。
Every future ROI estimate is a semieducated guess. You can only know your ROI for certain after the investment is made and the returns collected. Nothing in this world is a sure bet—always take into account the risk of something going wrong before making an investment, no matter how high the potential ROI appears to be.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/return-on-investment/
沉没成本
Sunk Cost
如果一开始你没有成功，请尝试，再试一次。然后退出。做一个该死的傻瓜是没有意义的。
If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. Then quit. There’s no point in being a damn fool about it.
——WC FIELDS，喜剧演员
—W. C. FIELDS, COMEDIAN
第二次世界大战归来后，我的祖父创办了考夫曼建筑公司，在俄亥俄州的阿克伦建造店面、住宅、工会大厅和公寓楼。1965 年，在从业 25 年后，他开始了他最雄心勃勃的项目：在 Portage Path 上建造一栋五层、26 个单元的公寓楼。
After returning from World War II, my grandfather started the Kaufman Construction Company, building storefronts, homes, union halls, and apartment buildings in Akron, Ohio. In 1965, after twenty-five years in the business, he kicked off his most ambitious project: a five-story, twenty-six-unit apartment building on Portage Path.
“Baranel”将建在两座老房子的地块上，这些房子是为这项工作而购买和拆除的。钢筋和砖块已经订购，挖掘工作正在按计划进行。该项目的预期成本为 300,000 美元，按今天的美元计算约为 240 万美元。
The “Baranel” was to be built on the lots of two older homes, which had been purchased and demolished for the job. Steel rebar and bricks had been ordered, and excavation was proceeding as planned. The expected cost of the project was $300,000, roughly $2.4 million in today’s dollars.
工程进展顺利，直到挖掘机发现了巨大的隐藏的蓝色粘土沉积物，这可能会使地基不稳定。为了继续这个项目，必须挖掘数千立方英尺的粘土和泥土才能到达基岩，并且需要额外的混凝土和钢筋来填充这个巨大的洞。完成这座建筑的成本远远超过最初的预期，但很难确定具体多少。
The project proceeded smoothly until the excavators found huge hidden deposits of blue clay, which could make the foundation unstable. To continue the project, thousands of cubic feet of clay and dirt would have to be excavated to reach bedrock, and additional concrete and rebar would be required to fill the massive hole. Completing the building would cost far more than originally expected, but it was difficult to determine how much.
爷爷没有走开，而是决定完成这个项目——他已经在土地和挖掘上花费了太多的钱，以至于“浪费它”而不让努力和投资得到任何回报的感觉是不对的。他找到了几个投资者，又建了一座公寓楼和家里的房子作为抵押，这个项目继续进行。
Instead of walking away, Grandpa decided to finish the project—he’d already spent so much money on the land and excavation that it felt wrong to “waste it” without having something to show for the effort and investment. He found a few investors, put up another apartment building and the family home as collateral, and the project continued.
到大楼完工时，他们花费的资金是原计划的三倍多：大约 100 万美元，按通货膨胀调整后按今天的美元计算超过 800 万美元。这比建筑物的价值还多。爷爷余下的职业生涯都在处理愤怒的投资者和律师。这是一个悲伤的故事，但值得我们学习。
By the time the building was complete, they’d spent more than three times as much money as originally planned: approximately $1 million, more than $8 million in today’s dollars when adjusted for inflation. It was more than the building was worth. Grandpa spent the rest of his career handling angry investors and lawyers. It’s a sad story, but one worth learning from.
沉没成本是时间、精力和金钱的投资，一旦投入就无法收回。无论您做什么，都无法取回这些资源。继续投资于一个项目以恢复丢失的资源是没有意义的——重要的是需要多少额外的投资与你期望获得的回报。
Sunk Costs are investments of time, energy, and money that can’t be recovered once they’ve been made. No matter what you do, you can’t get those resources back. Continuing to invest in a project to recover lost resources doesn’t make sense—all that matters is how much more investment is required versus the reward you expect to obtain.
避免沉没成本的危险在概念上很容易理解，但很难付诸实践。当您将多年的工作投入到您意识到自己不想要的职业中，或者将数百万美元投入到一个意外需要数百万美元的项目中时，您很难放弃。你已经投入了太多，以至于“白白放弃”感觉不对。实际上，您对过去的投资无能为力——它已经消失了。您所能做的就是根据您现在掌握的信息采取行动。
Avoiding the perils of Sunk Costs is easy to understand conceptually but much harder to put into practice. When you sink years of work into a career you realize you don’t want, or millions of dollars into a project that unexpectedly requires millions more, it’s difficult to walk away. You’ve invested so much that it feels wrong to “give it up for nothing.” In reality, there’s nothing you can do about your past investment—it’s gone. All you can do is act based upon the information you have now.
犯错误是不可避免的：没有人是完美的。你会做出一些决定，回想起来，你会希望自己没有做出这些决定——相信它。如果你可以让时间倒流，你会尝试不同的方法，但你做不到。总会有其他项目，只要你不加倍下注在有风险的项目上以挽回损失。在坏事之后投入好钱并不是一个成功的策略。
Making mistakes is inevitable: no one is perfect. You will make a few decisions that, in retrospect, you’ll wish you hadn’t—count on it. If you could turn back time, you’d try a different approach, but you can’t. There will always be other projects, provided you don’t double down on a risky project to recover your losses. Throwing good money after bad is not a winning strategy.
不要继续往无底坑里浇混凝土——如果不值得额外投资，走开。您永远不必像失去钱一样赚回钱。如果回报不值得获得回报所需的投资或风险，则不要投资。
Don’t continue to pour concrete into a bottomless pit—if it’s not worth the additional investment, walk away. You never have to earn back money in the same way you lost it. If the reward isn’t worth the investment required to obtain it or the risk, don’t invest.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/sunk-cost/
内部控制
Internal Controls
如果某件事不能永远持续下去，它就会停止。
If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.
——赫伯特·斯坦，经济学家
—HERBERT STEIN, ECONOMIST
随着时间的推移跟踪您的财务和运营数据的主要好处之一是能够注意到您的收入、成本和价值流中的模式。随着时间的推移，这些模式对于预算编制、监督运营、遵守法律法规以及防止盗窃和欺诈变得非常有用。
One of the major benefits of tracking your financial and operations data over time is the ability to notice patterns in your revenue, costs, and Value Stream. Over time, these patterns become useful for budgeting, supervising operations, complying with laws and regulations, and preventing theft and fraud.
内部控制是企业用来收集准确数据、保持业务平稳运行和发现问题的一组特定标准操作程序。公司的内部控制越好，其财务报告就越可靠，您对公司运营质量的信心也就越大。内部控制在三个方面最有用：
Internal Controls are a set of specific Standard Operating Procedures a business uses to collect accurate data, keep the business running smoothly, and spot trouble. The better a company’s Internal Controls, the more reliable its financial reports, and the more confidence you can have in the quality of the company’s operations. Internal Controls are most useful in three areas:
预算编制是估算未来成本并采取措施确保不会在没有充分理由的情况下超出这些估算的行为。预算对于控制利润率、现金流量周期和杠杆率非常重要。如果您的部分业务在给定时间段内超出预算，您可以采取措施纠正这种情况。
Budgeting is the act of estimating future costs and taking steps to ensure that these estimates aren’t exceeded without good reason. Budgets are very important in controlling Profit Margins, the Cash Flow Cycle, and Leverage. If part of your business breaks the budget in a given time period, you can take action to correct the situation.
对于在业务流程的重要部分依赖员工或外部公司的企业，监督非常重要。通过建立与交付时间、质量、成本和系统故障相关的控制，如果标准出现下滑或未达到绩效目标，则可以进行评估并在必要时对运营进行更改。
Supervision is important in businesses that rely on employees or outside firms for important parts of their business process. By establishing controls related to delivery time, quality, cost, and systems failures, it’s possible to conduct evaluations and make changes in operations if necessary if standards appear to slip or performance targets aren’t met.
当企业在受政府法规影响的行业中运营时，合规性是必要的。公司可能有义务在运营过程中收集和报告某些数据。内部控制确保此数据完整且准确，从而防止风险、重大损失和潜在的法律问题。
Compliance is necessary when a business operates in an industry affected by government regulations. The company may be obligated to collect and report certain data in the course of operations. Internal Controls ensure that this data is complete and accurate, preventing risks, significant losses, and potential legal issues.
盗窃和欺诈预防对于防止不法分子造成经济损失的风险非常重要。可靠的内部控制可以更容易地发现不对劲，确定责任方，并以最少的麻烦解决问题。
Theft and fraud prevention is important to protect against the risk of financial loss at the hands of an unscrupulous party. Solid Internal Controls make it easier to notice something is amiss, identify the responsible party, and resolve the situation with a minimum of fuss.
在所有这些领域，让冷静的第三方审核您的数据和控制流程是很有用的。审计是必要的，以发现和纠正错误，尤其是在具有许多活动部件的大型企业中。审计有助于确保公司数据的质量，并可以提高贷方、投资者、股东和监管机构对企业实践的信心。在所有情况下，审计方都不应该对结果感兴趣：这种职责分离有助于确保结果准确无误，尤其是在结果不佳的情况下。
In all of these areas, it’s useful to have a dispassionate third party audit your data and control processes. Auditing is necessary to find and correct errors, particularly in large businesses with many moving parts. Auditing helps ensure the quality of the company’s data and can increase the confidence of lenders, investors, shareholders, and regulatory bodies regarding the business’s practices. In all cases, the auditing party should have no interest in the outcome: this Segregation of Duties helps ensure the results are accurate, particularly if they’re not pretty.
财务控制还可以帮助您将您的公司与市场上的其他公司进行比较。每年，风险管理协会 (RMA) 都会汇集各行各业的大量数据。RMA 数据集可以更轻松地发现各种规模的有偿付能力的企业在给定时间段内在营销、销售和价值交付方面的支出。
Financial controls also help you to benchmark your company against other companies in your market. Every year, the Risk Management Association (RMA) compiles a huge amount of data from businesses in all industries. The RMA data set makes it easier to discover what solvent businesses of various sizes spend on marketing, sales, and value delivery over a given period of time.
银行和投资者依靠 RMA 数据来确定他们正在检查的企业是否典型。如果公司的成本与收入一致，外部各方可能会认为该企业的风险状况较低。如果公司在销售和营销上的支出是通常金额的三倍，则可能是麻烦、效率低下或会计不正当的信号。
Banks and investors rely on RMA data to determine whether or not a business they’re examining is typical. If the company’s costs are in line with revenues, outside parties are likely to assume the business has a lower risk profile. If the company is spending three times the typical amount on sales and marketing, it can be a signal of trouble, inefficiency, or shady accounting.
行业团体也可以成为有用的数据来源。许多市场都有贸易协会收集和分享有关成功企业的信息。通过将您的企业数据与您所在市场中其他公司的数据进行比较，您可以更好地了解您的绩效以及您的企业可以改进的地方。
Industry groups can also be a useful source of data. Many markets have trade associations that collect and share information about successful businesses. By comparing your business’s data to that of other companies in your market, you can get a better picture of how well you’re performing and where your business could use improvement.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/internal-controls/
6个
6
人类的思想
THE HUMAN MIND
这场比赛的百分之九十是一半的精神。
Ninety percent of this game is half mental.
—YOGI BERRA，职业棒球运动员和不法分子
—YOGI BERRA, PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL PLAYER AND MALAPROPIST
既然我们已经涵盖了企业运作方式的基本要素，我们将转向了解人们的工作方式。
Now that we’ve covered the essentials of how businesses work, we’re going to shift gears into understanding how people work.
企业是由人为人而建立的。正如我们在价值创造和价值交付中讨论的那样，如果人们没有需求和欲望，企业就不会存在。同样，如果没有人能够或愿意满足这些需求和愿望，企业就无法运营。
Businesses are built by people for people. As we discussed in value creation and value delivery, if people didn’t have needs and wants, businesses wouldn’t exist. Likewise, if no one was able or willing to fulfill those needs and wants, businesses couldn’t operate.
如果您想创建和维持成功的商业冒险，了解我们如何获取信息、我们如何做出决策以及我们如何决定做什么或不做什么是很重要的。一旦清楚地了解了人的思维是如何工作的，就很容易找到更好的方法以高效且有效的方式完成工作。
Understanding how we take in information, how we make decisions, and how we decide what to do or what not to do is important if you want to create and sustain a successful business venture. Once you have a clear picture of how the human mind works, it’s easy to find better ways to get things done in an efficient and effective way.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/human-mind/
穴居人综合症
Caveman Syndrome
每个人都是他所有祖先的引述。
Every man is a quotation from all his ancestors.
——拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生，十九世纪散文家和诗人
—RALPH WALDO EMERSON, NINETEENTH-CENTURY ESSAYIST AND POET
想象一下生活在十万年前会是什么样子。沿着河岸行走时，您的感官处于高度警觉状态河流，扫描食物：在溪流中游动的鱼、可食用的植物或要捕捉的动物。太阳接近顶点，您今天已经走了 6 英里——在一天结束之前，您长满老茧的脚会再走 6 英里。
Imagine for a moment what it would be like to have lived a hundred thousand years ago. Your senses are on full alert as you walk along the banks of a river, scanning for food: fish swimming in the stream, edible plants, or animals to catch. The sun is nearing its apex, and you’ve already walked six miles today—your callused feet will take you six miles more before the day is done.
几个小时后，您会停下来喝点水，找个阴凉处：午后的太阳很热，休息有助于您保存体力。
In a few hours, you’ll stop for some water and find shade: the mid-afternoon sun is hot, and rest will help you conserve energy.
当你走路时，你的目光停留在大约二十英尺外的一个小灌木丛上。你的心在跳——你认出了叶子的图案，你知道叶子和根都很好吃。您开始挖掘植物底部周围的泥土以露出根部，打算将整个灌木放入您绑在背上的简单编织篮子中。
As you walk, your eyes settle on a small bush about twenty feet away. Your heart leaps—you recognize the pattern of the leaves and you know that both the leaves and roots are good to eat. You start to dig at the earth around the base of the plant to expose the roots, intending to place the entire shrub into the simple woven basket you have strapped to your back.
突然，您注意到眼角有动静。四英尺外，一条巨大的眼镜蛇已经准备好攻击，展示其独特的图案罩和锋利的尖牙。没有时间思考——肾上腺素激增，你的心跳加快，你跳开，然后尽可能快地逃跑，把食物留在后面。
Suddenly, you notice a movement out of the corner of your eye. Four feet away, a massive cobra has drawn itself up to strike, displaying its distinctive patterned hood and sharp fangs. There’s no time to think—adrenaline surges, your pulse races, and you jump out of the way, then run away as fast as you’re able, leaving the food behind.
你一直跑到很明显威胁已经消失，然后你花了几分钟时间恢复，随着肾上腺素的消耗，你从劳累和压力中颤抖。你对失去食物感到失望，但不值得冒生命危险。
You run until it’s clear that the threat is gone and then you spend a few minutes recovering, trembling from the exertion and the stress as the adrenaline wears off. You’re disappointed about losing the food, but it wasn’t worth risking your life.
恢复后，您将继续寻找食物和躲避正午阳光的住所。今晚，您将返回您的部落，分享您发现的食物。
Once you recover, you resume your search for food and shelter from the midday sun. Tonight, you’ll return to your tribe to share what food you’ve found.
每个人你都认识，因为这个紧密的小组只有四十人左右。你们联合起来主要是为了抵御野生动物和其他部落，他们有时会试图通过袭击夺取你们部落的资源。你们一起制作长矛和渔网捕鱼，将燧石变成刀具和斧头用于狩猎和防御，并制作篮子和陶罐来储存食物。
You know everyone well, since there are only forty or so people in the tight-knit group. You’ve banded together primarily for protection from wild animals and other tribes, who sometimes attempt to seize your tribe’s resources via raids. Together, you make spears and nets to catch fish, turn flint into knives and axes for hunting and defense, and create baskets and clay pots to store food.
当你回到你部落的营地时，一只羚羊正在火上烤——你部落的一群猎人真的把它追死了，这种技术被称为持久性狩猎。晚上，您将围坐在团队生起的火堆旁烹饪食物并驱赶掠食者，您将讨论这一天并讲故事，直到您渐渐入睡。明天，你会重新做一遍。
When you return to your tribe’s camp, an antelope is roasting on the fire—a group of hunters in your tribe literally chased it to death, a technique called persistence hunting. In the evening, you’ll sit around the fire the group has built to cook food and keep predators away, and you’ll discuss the day and tell stories until you drift off to sleep. Tomorrow, you’ll do it all over again.
人类生物学针对存在一百年的条件进行了优化一千年前，不是为了我们今天生活的世界。食物无处不在；掠食者不是。您不再需要不停地运动；相反，您可能大部分时间都花在久坐不动的活动上，例如计算机和办公室工作。因此，我们的大脑和身体面临许多新的威胁，如肥胖、心脏病、糖尿病、阿尔茨海默病和癌症。
Human biology is optimized for conditions that existed a hundred thousand years ago, not for the world in which we live today. Food is everywhere; predators are not. You no longer have to be in constant motion; instead, you probably spend most of your time occupied by sedentary activities, like computer and office work. As a result, we face many new threats to our brains and bodies, like obesity, heart disease, diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, and cancer.
我将这种情况称为穴居人综合症：您的大脑和身体并未针对现代世界进行优化。在现代世界工作的部分挑战在于，我们的大脑和身体是为身体和社会生存而调整的，而不是 16 小时的工作日。商业存在的时间还不足以让我们的生物学适应我们对自己提出的新要求。
I call this state of affairs Caveman Syndrome: your brain and body aren’t optimized for the modern world. Part of the challenge of working in the modern world is that our brains and bodies are tuned for physical and social survival, not sixteen-hour workdays. Business hasn’t been around long enough for our biology to adapt to the new demands we’re placing upon ourselves.
不要对自己太苛刻——你不是为你目前负责的工作类型而生的。没有人——我们都在古老的硬件上运行要求苛刻的新软件。
Don’t be too hard on yourself—you weren’t built for the type of work you’re currently responsible for. No one is—we’re all running demanding new software on ancient hardware.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/caveman-syndrome/
性能要求
Performance Requirements
现在没有快乐但缺乏盐/那没有被痛苦冲昏头脑/还有疲倦和错误
Now no joy but lacks salt / That is not dashed with pain / And weariness and fault
——罗伯特·弗罗斯特，“走向地球”
—ROBERT FROST, “TO EARTHWARD”
咖啡和通宵达旦只能带你走这么远。如果您想做好工作，照顾好自己不是可有可无的。如果你不给你的身体提供跑步所需的东西，那么在你达到目标之前你就会耗尽能量。
Coffee and all-nighters can only take you so far. If you want to do good work, taking care of yourself isn’t optional. If you don’t give your body what it needs to run, you’ll run out of gas long before you reach your goals.
你的思想首先是一个物理系统。通常，我们所经历的精神疲劳或情绪困扰是身体发出的信号，表明我们没有获得足够的身体所需的东西：营养、锻炼或休息。
Your mind is first and foremost a physical system. Oftentimes, what we experience as mental fatigue or emotional distress is a signal from our body that we’re not getting enough of something we physically need: nutrients, exercise, or rest.
如果你想把事情做好，你不能“空”跑——人体有性能要求。就像汽车不能在油箱空了或火花塞坏了的情况下行驶一样，如果没有一些必要的输入，您的身体也无法长时间运转。当你有很多工作要做时，通常会想照顾好自己是次要的。事实并非如此——如果你想在不精疲力尽的情况下完成重要的事情，那么照顾好自己应该是你最关心的问题。
If you want to get things done, you can’t run on “empty”—the human body has Performance Requirements. Just as a car can’t run with an empty gas tank or a broken spark plug, your body can’t operate for long without a few necessary inputs. When you have a lot of work to do, it’s common to think that taking care of yourself is a secondary concern. It’s not—taking care of yourself should be your primary concern if you want to get important things done without burning out.
营养、锻炼和休息是您的身体转化为生产能量的输入。不良（或太少）的输入会降低输出的数量和质量。以下是一些基本准则，可帮助您充分利用每一天：
Nutrition, exercise, and rest are the inputs your body converts into productive energy. Poor (or too little) input reduces the quantity and quality of your output. Here are a few basic guidelines to help you get the most out of each day:
吃优质食物，喝水。 Garbage In, Garbage Out——注意你放入身体的东西。尽可能避免精制糖和加工食品——用美食作家迈克尔波伦的话来说，如果你的曾祖父母不承认它是食物，就不要吃它。适度摄入咖啡因，并且只在早上——中午后花草茶和调味水是苏打水的良好替代品，随身携带水瓶更容易保持水分。
Eat high-quality food and drink water. Garbage In, Garbage Out—pay attention to what you put into your body. Avoid refined sugar and processed foods as much as possible—to paraphrase food writer Michael Pollan, if your great-grandparents wouldn’t recognize it as food, don’t eat it. Use caffeine in moderation and only in the morning—herbal tea and flavored water are good substitutes for soda after noon, and carrying a water bottle makes it much easier to stay hydrated.
锻炼。根据John Medina 的Brain Rules，即使是低强度的身体活动也能增加能量、改善心理表现并增强您的注意力。散步或跑步、跳绳或做一些瑜伽可以帮助您清除脑海中的蜘蛛网，让您在一天的剩余时间里精力充沛。我最喜欢的力量训练形式是挥动壶铃或钢制狼牙棒——既不占用太多空间又便宜又有效的举重工具。通过适当的技术，您可以在二十分钟左右的时间内进行全身锻炼。（只是不要打任何东西。）1
Exercise. According to Brain Rules by John Medina, even low-intensity physical activity increases energy, improves mental performance, and enhances your ability to focus. Going for a walk or run, jumping rope, or doing a bit of yoga can help clear the cobwebs in your mind and give you more energy for the rest of the day. My preferred form of strength training is swinging a kettlebell or steel mace—inexpensive and effective weightlifting tools that don’t take up much space. With proper technique, you can get a full-body workout in twenty minutes or so. (Just don’t hit anything.)1
每晚至少睡七到八个小时。睡眠有助于巩固模式匹配和心理模拟的结果，所以不要吝啬休息。我发现设置闹钟提醒我上床睡觉很有用，让我有足够的时间在晚上睡觉前放松一下。计划在床上睡八到九个小时将确保您有足够的时间进入深度睡眠和快速眼动睡眠。
Get at least seven to eight hours of sleep each night. Sleep helps consolidate the results of Pattern Matching and Mental Simulation, so don’t skimp on rest. I find it useful to set an alarm to remind me to go to bed, giving me enough time to wind down before retiring for the night. Planning for eight to nine hours in bed will ensure you get enough time in deep and REM sleep.
多晒太阳，但不要太多。光线有助于设定您的昼夜节律，从而影响您的睡眠模式。我经常使用光疗设备2以确保获得足够的光线，尤其是在冬季。早上只晒十分钟的阳光是改善睡眠和心情的简单方法。
Get some sun, but not too much. Light helps set your circadian rhythm, which affects your sleeping patterns. I regularly use a light-therapy device2 to ensure that I’m getting enough light, particularly in the winter months. Getting as little as ten minutes of sunlight in the morning is an easy way to improve both your sleep and your mood.
我尝试用新方法来提高我的精力、工作效率和情绪——我建议您也这样做。引导结构可以帮助使这些生活方式的改变更容易——改变我的环境结构帮助我毫不费力地做出许多改变。不要害怕尝试新事物，看看您是否注意到有所改善——注意安全。
I experiment with new ways to improve my energy, productivity, and mood—I recommend you do the same. Guiding Structure can help make these lifestyle changes much easier—changing the structure of my environment has helped me make many changes with little effort. Don’t be afraid to try something new to see if you notice an improvement—just be safe.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/performance-requirements/
洋葱脑
The Onion Brain
此处所表达的观点并不一定代表我心中所有部分的一致观点。
The views expressed here do not necessarily represent the unanimous view of all parts of my mind.
——马尔科姆·麦克马洪，利物浦大主教
—MALCOLM MCMAHON, ARCHBISHOP OF LIVERPOOL
我们大多数人都认同我们脑海中评论我们周围世界的声音。那个声音有时兴奋得像电，但更多的时候是不确定的、担心的或害怕的。
Most of us identify with the voice inside our head that’s commenting on the world around us. That voice is sometimes electric with excitement, but more often it’s uncertain, concerned, or scared.
还好，“你”不是那个声音。
Fortunately, “you” are not that voice.
“你”只是你大脑的一小部分。你头脑中的声音只是广播播音员，评论你的大脑在做什么。不是你——你的意识是你的大脑用来解决它无法自动处理的问题的东西。
“You” are only a small part of your brain. The voice in your head is just a radio announcer, commenting on what your brain is doing. It is not you—your consciousness is what your brain uses to solve problems it can’t handle on autopilot.
由于人类行为的根源在于大脑，因此了解大脑的构造方式非常有用。以下是对大脑工作方式的简要（过于简单化）介绍。
Since human behavior has its roots in the brain, it’s very useful to understand how your brain is constructed. Here’s a brief (and oversimplified) look at how your brain works.
人类有一个洋葱脑——我们的大脑有好几层，一层又一层。核心是一个叫做后脑的结构，它负责让你活着。后脑负责生存所需的所有生理功能：心率、睡眠、清醒、反射、肌肉运动和生物冲动。
Humans have an Onion Brain—our brain has several layers, which sit on top of one another. At the core is a structure called the hindbrain, which is responsible for keeping you alive. The hindbrain is responsible for all of the physiological functions necessary for survival: heart rate, sleeping, waking, reflexes, muscle movements, and biological urges.
位于大脑底部的后脑有时被称为“蜥蜴脑”，因为这种基本的神经结构出现在我们所有的生物前体中，包括爬行动物和两栖动物。后脑主要负责产生信号，这些信号通过脊髓和神经向下传递到身体的各个部位，从而产生身体动作。
Located at the base of the brain, the hindbrain is sometimes called the “lizard brain” because this basic neurological structure appears in all of our biological precursors, including reptiles and amphibians. The hindbrain is primarily responsible for generating signals that are passed down through your spinal cord and nerves to every part of your body, resulting in your physical actions.
后脑上方是中脑，负责处理感觉数据、情绪、记忆和模式匹配。我们的中脑预测接下来会发生什么，然后将该信息发送到后脑，让我们的身体做好立即行动的准备。中脑是广播播音员，后脑是收音机。
Above your hindbrain is the midbrain, which is responsible for processing sensory data, emotion, memory, and Pattern Matching. Our midbrain predicts what will happen next, then sends that information to the hindbrain, which readies our body for immediate action. The midbrain is the radio announcer, and the hindbrain is the radio.
位于中脑正上方的是一层薄薄的折叠组织——前脑。这一小块神经物质负责使我们成为人类的认知能力：自我意识、逻辑、深思熟虑、抑制和决策。
Sitting just above the midbrain is a thin, folded layer of tissue—the forebrain. This small sheet of neural matter is responsible for the cognitive capabilities that make us human: self-awareness, logic, deliberation, Inhibition, and Decision.
从发育上讲，前脑是非常新的，很可能是为了帮助我们处理歧义而进化的。大多数时候，我们的中脑和后脑掌管一切——我们靠本能和自动驾驶仪运作。然而，当我们遇到意想不到或不熟悉的事情时，情况就会发生变化，这会混淆中脑预测接下来会发生什么的能力。那是前脑启动、收集数据和考虑选项的时候。
Developmentally speaking, the forebrain is very new and likely evolved to help us handle ambiguity. Most of the time, our midbrain and hindbrain run the show—we’re operating on instinct and autopilot. That changes, however, when we face something unexpected or unfamiliar, which confounds the midbrain’s ability to predict what will happen next. That’s when the forebrain kicks into gear, gathering data and considering options.
经过一些审议和分析后，前脑会根据当时的最佳状态来决定做什么。一旦做出决定，中脑和后脑就会正常运作并执行决定。
After some deliberation and analysis, the forebrain decides what to do based on what appears to be best at the time. Once a Decision is made, the midbrain and hindbrain assume normal operation and carry out the decision.
神经科学家此时可能已经准备好对我开枪了，但这个非常基本的大脑模型足够准确，可以派上用场。3我的朋友 PJ Eby 使用了一个很好的类比来解释你头脑不同部分之间的关系：你的大脑是一匹马，而“你”是骑手。你的马很聪明——它自己移动，可以识别挑战，并且会在看起来危险或可怕的事情面前退缩。但是你，骑手，在那里设定方向并向马保证它可以安全前进。
Neuroscientists are probably ready to shoot me at this point, but this very basic model of the brain is accurate enough to be useful.3 My friend P. J. Eby uses a great analogy to explain the relationship between the different parts of your mind: your brain is a horse, and “you” are the rider. Your horse is intelligent—it moves on its own, can identify challenges, and will balk at things that appear dangerous or scary. But you, the rider, are there to set a direction and reassure the horse that it’s safe to proceed.
为了完成更多工作，你可以做的最好的事情之一就是让自己与头脑中的声音分离。电台播音员在喝了三杯浓咖啡后的注意力持续时间只有两岁。它的工作是在你的环境中突出你可能有兴趣关注的事物——可能满足你的核心人类驱动力之一或带来一些危险的事物。这并不意味着声音总是正确的，或者你必须把它所说的一切都当作福音真理。
One of the best things you can do to get more done is to dissociate yourself from the voice in your head. The radio announcer has the attention span of a two-year-old after drinking a triple espresso. Its job is to highlight things in your environment you may be interested in paying attention to—things that may fulfill one of your Core Human Drives or present some danger. That doesn’t mean the voice is always right or that you must take everything it says as gospel truth.
冥想是一种简单的练习，可以帮助您将“您”与脑海中的声音区分开来。冥想没有什么神秘或神奇的——你坐着，吸气和呼气，观察你的“猴子头脑”在做什么，而不是将自己与它联系起来。过了一会儿，声音变得更安静，提高您保持自己选择的路线的能力。
Meditation is a simple practice that can help you separate “you” from the voice in your head. There’s nothing mystical or magical about meditation—you sit, breathe in and out, and watch what your “monkey mind” does without associating yourself with it. After a while, the voice becomes quieter, improving your ability to keep yourself on the course you choose.
每天进行几分钟的安静冥想，可以让您在感到害怕和不知所措与感觉自己掌握命运之间有所不同。
A few moments of quiet meditation every day can be the difference between feeling scared and overwhelmed and feeling in control of your destiny.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/onion-brain/
知觉控制
Perceptual Control
有机体的行为是控制系统的输出，其执行目的是将感知控制在所需的参考值。行为是感知的控制。
The behavior of an organism is the output of control systems, and is performed with the purpose of controlling perceptions at desired reference values. Behavior is the control of perception.
——WILLIAM T. POWERS，系统理论家
—WILLIAM T. POWERS, SYSTEMS THEORIST
在全世界企业（和商学院）的神圣殿堂中，BF Skinner 是隐藏的王者。
In the hallowed halls of businesses (and business schools) around the world, B. F. Skinner is the hidden king.
斯金纳是心理学“行为主义”运动背后的主要智力力量之一，该运动认为生物系统总是以某种方式对特定刺激做出反应。控制刺激，你就能控制行为。用奖励和惩罚“调节”有机体，有机体就会学会如何表现。
Skinner was one of the major intellectual forces behind the “behaviorist” movement in psychology—the idea that biological systems always respond a certain way to certain stimuli. Control the stimuli and you can control the behavior. “Condition” the organism with rewards and punishments, and the organism will learn how to behave.
几十年来，行为主义在心理学中已经不再流行——研究表明，行为远不止胡萝卜加大棒。但这种理解并没有扩展到商业实践——在世界各地的公司和商学院课堂上，人们仍在继续寻找能让人们做企业想做的事情的神奇激励。
Over the decades, behaviorism has fallen out of vogue in psychology—research has made it clear that there’s far more to behavior than the carrot and the stick. But that understanding hasn’t extended to business practice—in corporations and business-school classrooms around the world, the search continues for the magic incentive that will make people do what businesses want.
实际上，人类行为更像是恒温器。恒温器是一个非常简单的系统：它只包含一个传感器、一个设定点和一个开关。传感器测量周围环境的温度。当温度在给定范围内时，恒温器什么都不做。当温度低于设定点时，开关会打开加热器。一旦温度高于设定点，开关就会关闭加热器。
In reality, human behavior is much more like a thermostat. A thermostat is a very simple system: all it consists of is a sensor, a set point, and a switch. The sensor measures the temperature of the surrounding Environment. When the temperature is within a given range, the thermostat does nothing. When the temperature is below the set point, the switch turns the heater on. Once the temperature is above the set point, the switch turns the heater off.
这种关系称为感知控制——恒温器控制通过将感知温度与设定点进行比较来确定房间的温度，然后当且仅当这种感知“失控”时才采取行动。一旦行动使感知得到控制，系统就会停止行动，直到再次违反设定点。
This relationship is called Perceptual Control—the thermostat controls the temperature of the room by comparing the perceived temperature against the set point, then taking an action if and only if that perception is “out of control.” Once the action brings the perception under control, the system stops acting until the set point is violated once again.
生物体——包括人类——是非常复杂的知觉控制系统：我们的行为方式使我们对世界的感知保持在可接受的范围内。我们穿大衣不是因为寒冷的天气迫使我们穿大衣——我们穿大衣是因为我们觉得冷而且我们不想感到冷。如果进入我们眼睛的光线太亮，我们就会找阴影，拉下窗户上的百叶窗，或者戴上太阳镜——行动控制着感知，我们采取的行动取决于我们当时所处的环境。
Living organisms—including human beings—are very complex Perceptual Control systems: we act in ways to keep our perceptions of the world within acceptable boundaries. We don’t put on a coat because cold weather forces us to—we put on a coat because we feel cold and we don’t want to feel cold. If the light entering our eyes is too bright, we find shade, pull down the blinds on the windows, or put on sunglasses—the action controls the perception, and the action we take depends on the Environment we find ourselves in at the time.
在理解行为：控制的意义 中，William T. Powers 使用以下示例来解释控制系统如何解释人类表现出的广泛行为：想象一下在狂风暴雨中海洋中央的一艘船。船在随机上升和下降，在海浪的冲击下来回颠簸。
In Making Sense of Behavior: The Meaning of Control, William T. Powers uses the following example to explain how control systems account for the wide range of behaviors human beings exhibit: Imagine a ship in the middle of an ocean during a wild storm. The ship is rising and falling at random, pitching back and forth as it’s buffeted by the waves.
船甲板上的岩石不是控制系统。岩石不需要任何东西，所以它没有什么可控制的——它只是在物理力作用于它的地方翻滚。然而，船甲板上的人想要保持直立，因此会采取许多不同的动作来继续保持站立：改变平衡、移动、抓住扶手等。如果人跌倒了，他们他们会采取一切可能的行动来重新站起来。
A rock on the deck of the ship is not a control system. The rock doesn’t want anything, so it has nothing to control—it just tumbles wherever the forces of physics take it. A human being on the deck of the ship, however, wants to stay upright, and will therefore take many different actions to continue to stay standing: changing balance, moving, holding on to handrails, etc. If the human stumbles and falls, they’ll take whatever actions they can to get back on their feet once more.
环境决定了可以采取哪些行动来控制感知。控制不是计划——它是在环境发生变化时进行调整。暴风雨中的人类没有能力预先确定他们将采取什么行动来站稳脚跟——随着环境的变化，他们的行动也会随之改变，这取决于当时可用的资源和选择。
The Environment dictates which actions are possible to bring the perception under control. Control is not planning—it’s adjusting to changes in the Environment as they happen. The human in the storm doesn’t have the capability to predetermine what actions they’ll take to stay on their feet—as the Environment changes, their actions will change in response, depending on the resources and options available at the moment.
知觉控制解释了为什么相同的刺激往往会产生不同的反应。许多雇主的经典激励措施是许多雇主的经典激励措施：带薪加班，这是一个很好的例子，可以说明为什么刺激/响应模型不能反映全部情况。如果你想让你的小时工工作得更多，你就应该支付更多的加班费，对吧？
Perceptual Control explains why the same stimulus often produces different responses. A good example of why the stimulus/response model doesn’t paint the whole picture is the classic incentive of many employers: paid overtime. If you want your hourly employees to work more, you should pay more overtime, right?
不必要。控制收入的工人（即，他们没有足够的钱想要更多）可能会加班更多，但是那些已经觉得自己挣的钱足够多或者有比工作更重要的优先事项的员工呢？这些工人中的一些人将工作相同的时间，而另一些人将工作更少——他们控制一定数量的收入，然后花时间做对他们来说重要的其他事情，比如与家人在一起或追求一个副项目。提高加班费将使他们能够更快地达到这一点，因此他们会花更少的时间在工作上。
Not necessarily. Workers who are controlling for income (i.e., they don’t have enough and want more) will probably work more overtime, but what about workers who already feel they’re making enough money or have priorities that are more important than work? A few of those workers will work the same amount of time, and some will work less—they’re controlling for a certain amount of income, then spending their time doing other things that are important to them, like being with their family or pursuing a side project. Raising overtime pay will allow them to reach that point faster, so they’ll spend less time at work.
加班激励会产生三种不同的结果，其中两种是完全相反的——多工作和少工作。行为主义就这么多。
The overtime incentive produces three different results, two of which are complete opposites—working more and working less. So much for behaviorism.
知觉控制代表了理解人们为什么做他们所做的事情的根本转变。一旦您了解人们的行为是为了控制他们的看法，您就会更好地影响他们的行为方式。
Perceptual Control represents a fundamental shift in understanding why people do the things they do. Once you understand that people act to control their perceptions, you’ll be better equipped to influence how they act.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/perceptual-control/
参考水平
Reference Level
当且仅当我们发现我们正在经历的和我们想要经历的之间存在差异时，行动才会发生。
Action comes about if and only if we find a discrepancy between what we are experiencing and what we want to experience.
—PHILIP J. RUNKEL，俄勒冈大学心理学与教育学教授
—PHILIP J. RUNKEL, PROFESSOR OF PSYCHOLOGY AND EDUCATION, UNIVERSITY OF OREGON
每个感知控制系统的核心是参考水平——表明系统“处于控制之下”的一系列感知。当感知在系统的参考水平内时，什么也不会发生。当感知因太高或太低而违反参考水平时，系统将采取行动使感知恢复控制。
At the heart of every Perceptual Control system is a Reference Level—a range of perceptions that indicate the system is “under control.” When a perception is within the system’s Reference Level, nothing happens. When the perception violates the Reference Level by being too high or too low, the system will act to bring the perception back under control.
参考水平分为三种：设定点、范围和误差。
There are three kinds of Reference Levels: set points, ranges, and errors.
设定点是最小值或最大值。恒温器是具有设定点的系统的一个例子——每当温度低于某个值时，加热器就会启动。您身体产生的褪黑激素是另一个设定点——一旦达到特定阈值，您就会开始入睡。
A set point is a minimum or maximum value. The thermostat is an example of a system that has a set point—whenever the temperature falls below a certain value, the heater kicks on. Your body’s production of melatonin is another set point—once it reaches a particular threshold, you’ll start falling asleep.
企业财务控制按设定点进行管理：只要您的收入高于某个设定点并且您的支出低于某个设定点，就可以了。如果您的支出突然是正常支出的三倍，或者您的收入低于您的Sufficiency点，就会触发行动——您想找出超支的原因以及如何使您的支出重新受到控制。
Business financial controls are managed as set points: as long as your revenue is above a certain set point and your expenses are below a certain set point, you’re okay. If you suddenly spend three times what you normally spend or your revenue falls below your point of Sufficiency, that triggers action—you want to find out why you overspent and how to bring your expenses back under control.
范围是可接受值的范围。范围和设定点之间的区别在于所控制的感知存在上限和下限。有了设定点，感知必须高于或低于某个水平才能受到控制；有了范围，感知必须在两个设定点之间才能受到控制。
A range is a spread of acceptable values. The difference between a range and a set point is the existence of an upper and lower limit to the perception being controlled. With a set point, the perception must be above or below a certain level to be under control; with a range, the perception must be between two set points to be under control.
例如，您的身体有一个调节血液中葡萄糖水平的系统，它用于提供能量。过多或过少的血糖都可能危及生命，因此您的身体会通过释放胰岛素来将血糖水平保持在可接受的范围内，这会导致额外的葡萄糖进入（或离开）您体内的细胞。只要您的血糖在可接受的范围内，就不会发生任何事情。当超出参考范围时，您的身体会开始工作以控制情况。
For example, your body has a system for regulating the level of glucose in your blood, which it uses for energy. Too much or too little blood glucose can be life threatening, so your body works to keep the level within an acceptable range by releasing insulin, which causes extra glucose to move into (or out of) the cells in your body. As long as your blood glucose is within the acceptable range, nothing happens. When the reference range is violated, your body starts working to bring the situation back under control.
错误是一个定义为零的设定点——任何不为零的感知都是失控的。想一想皮肤中的疼痛感受器。大多数时候，他们什么都不做，这意味着一切都在掌控之中。然而，如果你割伤或烧伤了自己，感受器就会发出信号，表明有什么地方不对劲，你就会采取行动来补救这种情况。客户服务投诉就是一个商业案例——如果你没有收到任何投诉，一切都在掌控之中。如果您的收件箱里充满了抱怨，您就知道需要解决一些问题。
An error is a set point defined as zero—any perception that’s not zero is out of control. Think of the pain receptors in your skin. Most of the time, they do nothing, which means everything is under control. If you cut or burn yourself, however, the receptors send a signal that something is wrong, and you’ll act to remedy the situation. Customer-service complaints are a business example—if you don’t receive any, everything is under control. If your in-box is filling with complaints, you know something needs to be fixed.
如果要更改行为，则必须更改系统的参考级别或更改系统运行的环境。回想一下恒温器——如果您想关闭加热器，您可以将设定点更改为较低的温度。如果您意识到您的开支将是上个月的三倍，因为您正在开展一场大规模的营销活动，那么您的财务状况将不再失控。如果您正在纹身，那么在您的皮肤中激活疼痛感受器是可以接受的情况。
If you want to change a behavior, you must either change the system’s Reference Level or change the Environment in which the system is operating. Think back to the thermostat—if you want to turn the heater off, you can change the set point to a lower temperature. If you’re aware that your expenses will be three times what they were last month because you’re launching a huge marketing campaign, your finances are no longer out of control. If you’re in the process of getting a tattoo, pain receptors firing in your skin is an acceptable situation.
看法本身并没有改变，但你将不再采取行动控制感知，因为它已经在控制之中。更改参考电平会更改系统的行为。
The perceptions themselves haven’t changed, but you’ll no longer act to bring the perception under control because it already is under control. Changing the Reference Level changes the behavior of the system.
定义和重新定义参考水平可以帮助您改变您的行为。如果您担心自己的开支失控，您可以创建一个预算，为您提供关于您的目标月收入需要多少的信息，以保持财务充足。如果您担心自己的体重过高或过低，去看医生可以帮助您根据医疗数据校准您的期望和自我认知。如果您每天工作 12 小时，并且您决定不超过 8 小时是可以接受的，那么您的工作习惯就会改变。
Defining and redefining Reference Levels can help you change your behavior. If you’re worried that your spending is out of control, you can create a budget that will give you information on what your target monthly revenue needs to be in order to maintain financial Sufficiency. If you’re worried that your weight is too high or low, a visit to your doctor can help you calibrate your expectations and self-perception against medical data. If you’re working twelve-hour days and you decide that no more than eight is acceptable, your work habits will change.
改变参考水平，你的行为就会随之改变。
Change the Reference Level, and your behavior will change as a result.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/reference-level/
能量守恒
Conservation of Energy
人类行动的基本原则是人们寻求以最少的努力来满足他们的欲望。
The fundamental principle of human action is that men seek to gratify their desires with the least exertion.
——亨利·乔治，政治经济学的作者
—HENRY GEORGE, AUTHOR OF THE SCIENCE OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
这是人性的一个真理：人是懒惰的。关键的见解是懒惰是一种特性，而不是错误。
Here’s a truth of human nature: people are lazy. The critical insight is that being lazy is a feature, not a bug.
想一想，如果您的一位远古祖先无缘无故地跑了一整天，直到精疲力尽而倒下，会发生什么情况。如果掠食者或敌人出现，它们将没有余力应对威胁——这是一个非常糟糕的情况。因此，我们已经进化到除非绝对必要，否则会避免消耗能量，我称之为能量守恒的习惯。
Think what would happen if one of your ancient ancestors ran around all day for no good reason until they collapsed from exhaustion. If a predator or enemy appeared, they’d have no reserves left to respond to the threat—a very bad situation. As a result, we’ve evolved to avoid expending energy unless absolutely necessary, a Habit I call Conservation of Energy.
在过去的几十年里，研究人员研究了马拉松运动员和超级马拉松运动员（一次跑五十到一百英里的人），以了解更多关于身体如何对疼痛做出反应的信息。以下是他们的发现：当您疲倦到感觉自己随时都快要结束的时候，从生理上来说，您离死亡还差得很远。你的大脑向你的身体发送的信号是一种诡计，可以起到警告的作用，促使你保留一些能量，以备日后需要时使用。
Over the past several decades, researchers have studied marathoners and ultramarathoners (people who run fifty to one hundred miles at a stretch) to learn more about how the body responds to pain. Here’s what they’ve found: when you’re so tired that it feels like you’re about to kick the bucket any second, physiologically, you’re not even remotely close to dying. The signals your brain is sending to your body are a ruse that serves as a warning, prompting you to keep some energy in reserve, just in case energy is needed later.
除非违反参考水平，否则人们不会通过表演。想想两个对家庭清洁有不同标准的室友。对一个人来说，水槽里的脏盘子是个问题——在他们看来，任何盘子都是“失控的”，这促使采取行动来解决这个问题。对另一个室友来说，情况可能要等到水槽溢出时才会失控，这时他们会消耗一些能量来洗碗。不同的参考水平，不同的行动。
Unless a Reference Level is violated, people will conserve energy by not acting. Think of two roommates who have different standards of household cleanliness. To one, the presence of dirty dishes in the sink is a problem—in their mind, any dishes at all is “out of control,” which prompts action to fix the situation. To the other roommate, the situation may not be out of control until the sink is overflowing, at which point they’ll expend some energy washing dishes. Different Reference Levels, different actions.
如果您认为自己的体重、健康和体格都很好，您可能不会改变饮食或开始锻炼。如果您对自己的社交圈和自信感到满意，您可能不会为提高社交技能或扩大熟人圈做太多事情。如果您认为自己赚了足够的钱，您可能不会做太多的事情来赚更多的钱。
If you think your weight, health, and physique are just fine, you probably won’t change your diet or start exercising. If you’re comfortable with your social circle and confidence, you probably won’t do much to improve your social skills or expand your circle of acquaintances. If you think you’re making enough money, you probably won’t do much to earn more.
能源守恒解释了为什么有些人几十年来一直从事没有前途的工作，即使他们知道这个职位并不好。如果工作顺利，账单得到支付，而且工作的压力或挫败感从未达到超出预期的程度，人们就不会特意去升职、找另一份工作或开始新的业务。人们只有在他们的参考水平以某种方式被违反时才会开始付出努力，所以如果他们的期望没有被违反，他们就不会采取行动。
Conservation of Energy explains why some people stay in dead-end jobs for decades, even though they know the position isn’t great. If the work is okay, the bills get paid, and the job never becomes stressful or frustrating enough to violate expectations, people won’t go out of their way to get a promotion, find another job, or start a new business. People only start to expend effort if their Reference Levels are violated in some way, so if their expectations aren’t violated, they don’t act.
改变您的参考水平的信息来源对于促使您采取行动很有价值。促使我开设课程和提供咨询的其中一件事是，我了解到一些商业作家和教练能够整天学习和帮助他人，并因其专业知识而获得丰厚的报酬。这足以违反我当时关于工作的参考水平——如果他们可以因为做我喜欢做的事情而得到报酬，我为什么要整天从事一份还可以的日常工作？我越了解人们为实现这一目标所做的努力，我就越想为自己实现这一目标。
Sources of information that change your Reference Levels are valuable in prompting action. One of the things that prompted me to build courses and offer consulting was the knowledge that some business authors and coaches were able to spend all day learning and helping others and be paid very well for their expertise. That was enough to violate my Reference Levels about work at the time—if they could get paid for doing what I loved to do, why should I have to spend all day in a day job that was just okay? The more I learned about what people did to make this possible, the more I wanted to do to make it a reality for myself.
在罗杰·班尼斯特 (Roger Bannister) 于 1954 年破纪录的表现之前，在四分钟内跑完一英里被认为超出了人体的物理极限。在班尼斯特证明这是可能的之后，心理障碍被打破了：到 1957 年底，已有 16 名选手完成了这一壮举。唯一改变的是参考水平：这些运动员知道这是可能的并且想这样做，所以他们做到了。
Before Roger Bannister’s record-breaking performance in 1954, running a mile in under four minutes was considered beyond the physical limitations of the human body. After Bannister proved it was possible, the psychological barrier was broken: by the end of 1957, sixteen runners had accomplished the feat. The only thing that changed was the Reference Level: these athletes knew it was possible and wanted to do it, so they did.
好书、杂志、博客、纪录片，甚至是竞争对手，如果它们违反了您对可能性的预期，那么它们就是有价值的。什么时候你发现其他人正在做你曾经认为不现实或不可能的事情，它以一种非常有用的方式改变你的参考水平。你只需要知道你想要的东西是可能的，你会找到一种方法来得到它。
Good books, magazines, blogs, documentaries, and even competitors are valuable if they violate your expectations about what’s possible. When you discover that other people are doing something you once considered unrealistic or impossible, it changes your Reference Levels in a very useful way. All you need to know is that something you want is possible, and you’ll find a way to get it.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/conservation-of-energy/
导向结构
Guiding Structure
从长远来看——通常是短期来看——你的意志力永远不会战胜你的环境。
In the long run—and often in the short-run—your willpower will never beat your environment.
—JAMES CLEAR，《原子习惯》的作者
—JAMES CLEAR, AUTHOR OF ATOMIC HABITS
假设您决定从饮食中去除精制糖。有压倒性的证据表明它对你的健康不利，而且你相信如果你能戒掉这个习惯，你的生活质量就会提高。只有一个问题：糖的味道很好，而且您会产生难以抗拒的渴望。你怎样才能更容易地改变你的饮食习惯？
Let’s say you decide to remove refined sugar from your diet. There’s overwhelming evidence that it’s not good for your health, and you’re convinced your quality of life would improve if you can kick the habit. There’s just one problem: sugar tastes good, and you experience cravings that are difficult to resist. How can you make it easier to change your eating habits?
最有效的策略之一很简单：不要在杂货店购买含精制糖的产品，摆脱家中任何添加糖分的食物，并购买一些符合您新标准的健康零食。如果在您感到饥饿的时间和地点无法获得糖，并且如果您的典型选择有简单的替代品，则无需抗拒诱惑：您直接环境的结构使您的新行为自动发生。花几分钟的意志力来改变你周围的世界，可以让你更容易按照你决定的方式行事。
One of the most effective strategies is simple: don’t purchase products with refined sugar at the grocery store, get rid of any food with added sugar in your house, and purchase a few healthy snacks that meet your new criteria. If sugar isn’t available when and where you experience hunger, and if there are easy alternatives to your typical choices, there’s no need to resist temptation: the structure of your immediate Environment makes your new behavior automatic. A few minutes of willpower applied to altering the world around you can make it much easier to act in the ways you’ve decided to act.
指导结构意味着您的环境结构是您行为的最大决定因素。如果你想成功地改变一个行为，不要试图改变行为本身。改变影响或支持行为的结构，行为就会改变。如果你不想吃冰淇淋，一开始就不要买。
Guiding Structure means the structure of your Environment is the largest determinant of your behavior. If you want to successfully change a behavior, don’t try to change the behavior by itself. Change the structure that influences or supports the behavior, and the behavior will change. If you don’t want to eat ice cream, don’t buy it in the first place.
在荷马的《奥德赛》中，奥德修斯和他的船员准备驶过海妖岛——海妖女，她们的歌声如此优美动人，以至于不知情的水手们失去了所有的理智并沉没了。奥德修斯没有依靠意志的力量来抵挡海妖的诱惑，改变环境的结构，用蜂蜡塞住手下的耳朵，并将自己绑在船桅上。这样就避免了诱惑，船安全通过了。
In Homer’s Odyssey, Odysseus and his crew prepare to sail past the island of the Sirens—bird women who sing songs so beautiful and alluring that unwitting sailors lose all reason and shipwreck themselves. Instead of relying on strength of will to resist the temptation of the Sirens, Odysseus changes the structure of the Environment, plugging his men’s ears with beeswax and tying himself to the ship’s mast. Temptation thus avoided, the ship makes safe passage.
改变你的环境结构，你的行为也会随之改变。添加一点摩擦或消除某些选项，您会发现更容易专注于您想要完成的事情。
Change the structure of your Environment, and your behavior will change as a result. Add a bit of Friction or eliminate certain options, and you’ll find it much easier to focus on what you’re trying to accomplish.
指导结构的一个很好的例子是美国联邦航空管理局 (FAA) 于 1981 年制定的“无菌驾驶舱规则”。大多数航空事故发生在一万英尺以下，分心可能是致命的。在一万英尺以上，飞行员可以畅所欲言，但在一万英尺以下，唯一允许的讨论是与正在进行的飞行有关的信息。通过消除干扰，无菌驾驶舱规则减少了错误和事故。
A great example of Guiding Structure is the “sterile cockpit rule” that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) instituted in 1981. Most airline accidents happen below ten thousand feet, where distractions can be deadly. Above ten thousand feet, pilots can talk about anything they want, but below ten thousand feet, the only discussion permitted is about information related to the flight in progress. By eliminating distractions, the sterile cockpit rule reduces errors and accidents.
改变你的环境结构，你会惊讶于你的行为会如何随之改变。
Change the structure of your Environment, and you’ll be amazed at how your behavior will change in response.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/guiding-structure/
重组
Reorganization
并非所有漂泊的人都迷路了。
Not all those who wander are lost.
——JRR 托尔金，指环王的作者
—J. R. R. TOLKIEN, AUTHOR OF THE LORD OF THE RINGS
每当感知违反系统的参考水平时，就会采取行动使感知重新受到控制。有时这种反应是明确定义的——正如我们之前讨论的那样，您的身体知道它需要做什么来调节血糖。然而，您常常不知道哪里出了问题，也不知道如何解决。
Whenever a perception violates the system’s Reference Level, action will occur to bring the perception back under control. Sometimes that response is well defined—as we discussed earlier, your body knows what it needs to do to regulate blood glucose. Often, however, you don’t know what is wrong—or how to fix it.
将感知视为抽象的“工作满意度”——在您的脑海中有一个设定点代表“我在工作中应该有多快乐”，您对工作满意度的感知是您实际工作体验的平均值。愉快的经历使平均水平更高，不愉快的经历使平均水平更低。
Think of a perception as abstract as “job satisfaction”—there’s a set point in your mind that stands for “how happy I should be at work,” and your perception of job satisfaction is an average of your actual experiences at work. Pleasant experiences move the average higher, and unpleasant experiences move the average lower.
如果你对工作满意度的看法低于你认为应该的水平（你的参考水平），你的大脑就会开始行动——“我没有像我应该的那样快乐。” . . 有些事情需要改变。”
If your perception of job satisfaction is lower than you think it should be (your Reference Level), your brain will kick into action—“I’m not as happy as I should be . . . Something needs to change.”
这就是问题所在：您可能不知道那是什么。如果你换工作、为新老板工作、离开公司或开始为自己工作，你会更快乐吗？谁知道？这就是重组的用武之地。
Here’s the problem: you may not know what that something is. Would you be happier if you changed assignments, worked for a new boss, left the company, or started working for yourself? Who knows? That’s where Reorganization comes in.
重组是在参考水平被违反但您不知道如何做才能使感知重新受到控制时发生的随机行为。许多人经历的“四分之一生命”或中年危机就是重组的一个完美例子。你不太清楚如何才能消除你所感受到的焦虑，所以你开始做一些对你来说不正常的事情，比如辞掉你的工作去背包穿越欧洲或者纹身和买摩托车。
Reorganization is random action that occurs when a Reference Level is violated but you don’t know what to do to bring the perception back under control. The “quarter-life” or midlife crisis many people experience is a perfect example of Reorganization. You don’t quite know what to do to eliminate the angst you’re feeling, so you start doing things that aren’t normal for you, like quitting your job to backpack across Europe or getting a tattoo and buying a motorcycle.
重组会让您感觉迷失、沮丧或发疯——这很正常。你的大脑开始吐出各种奇怪的东西，试图找到解决问题的方法。有时候，当我压力很大的时候，我会开始觉得当清洁工听起来很吸引人——工作不难，你不用想那么多，而且还能得到报酬。这并不意味着这是个好主意，但这种思维过程很正常——我的大脑只是在尝试随机的想法，以使某些系统重新受到控制。
Reorganization feels like you’re lost, depressed, or crazy—that’s normal. Your brain starts spitting out all kinds of off-the-wall things in an effort to find something to fix the situation. Sometimes, when I’m stressed out, I’ll start to think that being a janitor sounds appealing—the work’s not difficult, you don’t have to think so much, and you still get paid. That doesn’t mean it’s a good idea, but this type of thought process is normal—my brain is just trying out random ideas to bring certain systems back under control.
重组是学习的神经学基础。正如我们将在模式匹配中讨论的那样，我们的大脑是将特定行为与特定效果相关联的学习机器。如果你的头脑还没有学会在某种情况下该怎么做，那么解决问题的最好方法就是尝试新事物以努力收集数据。这就是重组的目的——它是考虑或尝试新事物以查看有效方法的冲动。
Reorganization is the neurological basis of learning. As we’ll discuss in Pattern Matching, our minds are learning machines that associate specific behaviors with specific effects. If your mind hasn’t already learned what to do in a certain situation, the best way to solve the problem is to try new things in an effort to gather data. That’s what Reorganization is for—it’s the impulse to consider or try new things to see what works.
关于重组，要了解的最重要的事情之一是最好不要与之抗争。尽管有时试图说服自己一切都好是很诱人的，但抵制或压制尝试不同事物的冲动会减慢你的学习速度。
One of the most important things to understand about Reorganization is that it’s best not to fight it. Even though it’s sometimes tempting to try to convince yourself that everything is okay, resisting or repressing the impulse to try something different slows down your learning.
灵魂的黑夜并没有什么奇怪或不正常的——它们是一个信号，表明你对生活的某些看法已经失控，需要重组来收集更多关于如何修复它的数据。一旦你学会了如何控制这种感觉，重组就会停止。
There’s nothing odd or abnormal about dark nights of the soul—they’re a signal that some perception about your life is out of control, and Reorganization is required to gather more data about how to fix it. Once you learn how to bring the perception back under control, Reorganization stops.
当您感到迷茫时，振作起来——这只是您的大脑在收集做出正确决定所需的信息。拥抱冲动尝试新事物将帮助您比其他方式更快地退出重组。
When you’re feeling lost, take heart—it’s just your brain gathering the information it needs to make good decisions. Embracing the impulse to try something new will help you exit Reorganization faster than you would otherwise.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/reorganization/
冲突
Conflict
我们面临的重大问题无法以我们创建它们时所处的同一思维水平得到解决。
The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.
——阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦，诺贝尔物理学奖得主
—ALBERT EINSTEIN, NOBEL PRIZE–WINNING PHYSICIST
让我们花点时间来看看每个人最喜欢的性格缺陷：拖延症。
Let’s take a moment to examine everyone’s favorite character flaw: procrastination.
每个人都有一定程度的拖延症：要做的事情太多，把任务推迟到他们感到紧急时是一种自然反应。当现在需要做某事时，您怎么能专注于将来到期的事情呢？
Everyone procrastinates to a certain extent: with too many things to do, putting off tasks until they feel urgent is a natural response. How can you focus on something due in the future when there’s something that needs to be done now?
尤其令人沮丧的是，有时我们知道我们有时间提前完成某件事，但我们就是不想现在就去做。我们中的一部分人想工作，而我们的一部分人不想工作。如果你试图强迫自己工作，你会发现自己分心太多，以至于做不了什么。如果你试图休息，你的一部分会因为你没有工作而感到难过，这意味着你没有休息。
What’s particularly frustrating are the times we know we have time to get something done in advance, but we just don’t feel like doing it right now. Part of us wants to work, and part of us wants to not work. If you try to force yourself to work, you find that you’re so distracted that you don’t get much done. If you try to rest, part of you feels bad that you’re not working, which means you’re not resting.
整整一天你既没有真正工作也没有真正休息，但你却因无事可做而感到筋疲力尽。是什么赋予了？
Entire days can pass where you neither really work nor really rest, but you feel exhausted from the effort of getting nothing done. What gives?
当两个控制系统试图改变相同的感知时，就会发生冲突。当你拖延时，你大脑的一个子系统试图控制“把事情做好”，而另一个子系统试图控制“得到足够的休息”。由于两个系统都试图控制相同的感知——身体动作——所以系统会努力将感知移动到它们想要的方向。
Conflicts occur when two control systems try to change the same perception. When you’re procrastinating, one of your brain’s subsystems is trying to control “getting things done,” while another is trying to control “getting enough rest.” Since both systems are trying to control the same perception—physical action—the systems fight to move the perception in the direction they want it to go.
这种情况类似于加热器和空调在一个房间内争夺控制温度。只要它们各自的参考水平相互排斥，任何一个系统都不会处于控制之下——它们将继续付出努力使系统朝着它们控制的方向移动。即使一个系统将感知带回暂时控制，用不了多久其他系统就会确保它再次失控。
The situation is akin to a heater and an air conditioner fighting to control the temperature in a single room. As long as their respective Reference Levels are mutually exclusive, neither system will ever be under control—they’ll continue to expend effort to move the system in the direction they’re controlling for. Even if one system brings the perception back under control temporarily, it won’t be long before the other system ensures it’s out of control once more.
拖延是内心冲突的一个例子，但人与人之间也会发生冲突。当人们控制需要相同输入的不同输出时，就会发生冲突。想想两个孩子为同一个玩具打架。这又是一场拖延/温度之战，只有控制系统是人。只要一个孩子拿到玩具，另一个孩子就会不高兴。结果，玩具来回移动，两个孩子都很不高兴。
Procrastination is an example of an inner Conflict, but Conflicts happen between people as well. Conflicts occur when people are controlling for different outputs that require the same input. Think of two children fighting over the same toy. It’s the procrastination/temperature battle all over again, only the control systems are people. As long as one child has the toy, the other will be upset. As a result, the toy moves back and forth, and both children are upset.
想一想一家大公司的高层领导为如何分配有限的预算而争论不休，您就会很清楚冲突的来源。如果将 100 万美元分配给一位副总裁，这意味着所有其他副总裁都无法使用它，因此他们会抗议——这是最好的公司政治。
Think about senior leaders in a large company squabbling over how a limited budget will be allocated, and you’ll have a good idea of where Conflicts come from. If $1 million is allocated to one vice president, that means all of the other VPs can’t use it, so they protest—corporate politics at its best.
使人际冲突具有挑战性的事情之一是我们永远无法真正控制另一个人的行为。我们可以影响、说服、启发或谈判，但我们永远不能根据他人的看法采取行动或直接改变他们的参考水平。
One of the things that make interpersonal Conflict challenging is that we can never truly control the actions of another human being. We can influence, persuade, inspire, or negotiate, but we can never act upon another person’s perceptions or change their Reference Levels in a direct way.
冲突只能通过改变参考水平来解决——成功是由相关各方定义的。试图通过引起人们对不可接受的行为的关注来解决冲突是无效的，就像意志力不能直接改变行为一样——它没有解决冲突的根本原因。
Conflicts can only be resolved by changing Reference Levels—how success is defined by the parties involved. Attempting to resolve a Conflict by calling attention to unacceptable behavior is ineffective in the same way that willpower can’t change behavior in a direct way—it’s not addressing the root cause of the Conflict.
冲突中的每一方都有不同的参考水平，这主要受情况或环境的影响。解决冲突的唯一方法是改变每一方的参考水平，最好通过改变情境结构来实现。
Each party in the Conflict has a different Reference Level, which is primarily influenced by the situation or Environment. The only way to resolve the conflict is to change each party’s Reference Level, which is best done by changing the structure of the situation.
在拖延的情况下，可以通过安排固定的工作和休息时间来结束冲突，确保每个人都有足够的时间。在The Now Habit中，Neil Fiore 建议创建一个“非时间表”，将休息优先于工作。当您的大脑确定您将获得所需的所有放松和享受，并且您只有一定的时间来完成工作时，您就更容易专注于富有成效的工作。
In the case of procrastination, Conflict can be ended by scheduling firm times for work and rest, ensuring enough of each. In The Now Habit, Neil Fiore recommends creating an “unschedule” that prioritizes rest over work. When your brain is sure that you’ll be receiving all of the relaxation and enjoyment you need, and that you only have a certain amount of time to get things done, it’s easier to focus on doing productive work.
在竞争的加热器和空调的情况下，只要您保持恒温器上的冲突温度，这种情况就会存在。更改参考级别并解决冲突。
In the case of the competing heater and air conditioner, the situation can only exist as long as you maintain the conflicting temperatures on the thermostats. Change the Reference Levels and you resolve the Conflict.
对于争吵不休的孩子（或副总统），您可以通过确保每个战斗人员得到大致相同的玩具、根本没有得到玩具或将他们的成功衡量标准从“得到我的”改为“一起工作”来改变这种情况。 ”
In the case of squabbling children (or vice presidents), you can change the situation by ensuring that each combatant gets roughly the same toy, gets no toy at all, or changes their measure of success from “getting mine” to “working together.”
改变创建各方用来衡量成功的参考水平的情况，您将消除冲突。
Change the situation that creates the Reference Levels each party is using to measure success, and you’ll eliminate the Conflict.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/conflict/
模式匹配
Pattern Matching
你的记忆是个怪物；你忘记了——它没有。它只是把东西归档。它为您保留东西，或向您隐藏东西——并根据自己的意愿将它们召回。你认为你有记忆；但它有你！
Your memory is a monster; you forget—it doesn’t. It simply files things away. It keeps things for you, or hides things from you—and summons them to your recall with a will of its own. You think you have a memory; but it has you!
——约翰·欧文，小说家和奥斯卡获奖编剧
—JOHN IRVING, NOVELIST AND ACADEMY AWARD–WINNING SCREENWRITER
早在你知道重力是什么之前，你就知道如果你释放一个球，它会向地面移动。最初几次你放开一个球，它总是会掉到地上。不需要很多这样的经历，你就会知道你释放的任何物体都会掉落。重力是您的大脑自行学习的东西的名称。
Long before you knew what gravity was, you knew that a ball would move toward the ground if you released it. The first few times you let go of a ball, it would always fall to the ground. It didn’t take many such experiences for you to learn that any object you released would fall. Gravity is a name for something your brain learned by itself.
关于大脑最有趣的事情之一是它学习和识别模式的能力。想想巴甫洛夫著名的狗：按铃，它们就会开始分泌唾液。巴甫洛夫教给他们一个模式：每次铃响，食物就在路上。狗很快就学会了这种模式，所以它们甚至在食物出现之前就开始做出反应。
One of the most interesting things about the brain is its ability to learn and recognize patterns. Think of Pavlov’s famous dogs: ring a bell, and they’ll start to salivate. Pavlov taught them a pattern: every time the bell rings, food is on the way. It didn’t take long for the dogs to learn the pattern, so they began to respond even before the food appeared.
我们的大脑是天然的模式匹配机器。大脑忙于寻找我们所感知的模式，然后将新模式与存储在记忆中的其他模式相关联。这个模式匹配过程是在没有意识的情况下发生的。通过关注你周围的世界，你的大脑正在收集新的模式并将它们添加到记忆中。
Our brains are natural Pattern Matching machines. The brain is busy trying to find patterns in what we perceive, then associating new patterns with other patterns that are stored in memory. This Pattern Matching process happens without conscious effort. By paying attention to the world around you, your brain is collecting new patterns and adding them to memory.
人类主要通过实验来学习模式。如果一个小孩想被妈妈抱，很快就会尝试几种不同的方法并了解哪种反应会产生预期的结果：“如果我哭，妈妈会把我抱起来抱着我。” 从此以后，只要孩子想要结果，就会依赖这个模式。
Humans learn patterns primarily via experimentation. If a small child wants to be held by its mother, it doesn’t take long to try several different approaches and learn which response produces the desired result: “If I cry, Mom is going to pick me up and hold me.” From then on, the child will rely on the pattern whenever it desires the result.
您可以将您的记忆视为您通过过去的经验学到的模式的数据库。模式存储在我们的长期记忆中，等待用于确定对新情况或不常见情况的反应。回忆是针对速度而非准确性进行优化的——大脑根据上下文存储信息，这有助于您在需要时回忆起相关模式。这就是为什么找到一组丢失的钥匙的最佳方法是在脑海中遍历您去过的所有地方——上下文使您更容易回忆起信息。
You can think of your memory as the database of patterns you’ve learned via past experience. Patterns get stored in our long-term memory, waiting to be used to determine responses to new or uncommon situations. Recall is optimized for speed, not accuracy—the brain stores information contextually, which helps you recall related patterns when you need them. That’s why the best way to find a set of lost keys is to mentally walk through all of the places you’ve been—the context makes it easier to recall the information.
您学到的模式越准确，解决新问题时的选择就越多。模式匹配是有经验的人往往比没有经验的人做出更好决策的主要原因之一——他们通过经验学到了更准确的模式。拥有更大的心理数据库可以让专家获得专业知识。
The more accurate patterns you’ve learned, the more options you have when solving new problems. Pattern Matching is one of the primary reasons experienced people tend to make better decisions than inexperienced people—they’ve learned more accurate patterns via their experience. Having a larger mental database to draw from is what gives experts their expertise.
模式匹配是我们思维及其工作方式的基本功能之一。你在记忆中储存的模式越准确，你就越能对生活抛给你的任何事情做出反应。
Pattern Matching is one of the foundational capabilities of our mind and how it works. The more accurate patterns you have stored in your memory, the better you can respond to whatever life throws at you.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/pattern-matching/
心理模拟
Mental Simulation
我在大理石中看到了天使并雕刻，直到我将他释放。
I saw the angel in the marble and carved until I set him free.
—米开朗基罗，雕塑家和艺术家
—MICHELANGELO, SCULPTOR AND ARTIST
快速：想象一下跳入活火山的中间。这是个好主意吗？
Quick: imagine jumping into the middle of an active volcano. Is it a good idea?
回答这个问题只花了你几分之一秒，即使你从未跳进火山或见过任何人。你的所作所为非同寻常：你怎么可能知道一个你以前从未考虑过的问题的答案？
Answering this question took you only a few fractions of a second, even though you’ve never jumped into a volcano or seen anyone who has. What you’ve done is quite extraordinary: How is it possible to know the answer to a question you’ve never considered before?
心理模拟是我们的大脑想象采取特定行动的能力，然后在行动前模拟可能的结果。我们的头脑试图根据我们周围发生的事情来预测未来会发生什么我们正在考虑采取什么行动。预测我们行动的结果是一个显着的优势：它增强了我们解决新问题的能力。
Mental Simulation is our mind’s ability to imagine taking a specific action, then simulate the probable result before acting. Our minds try to predict what will happen in the future based on what’s happening around us and what actions we’re considering. Anticipating the results of our actions is a significant advantage: it enhances our ability to solve novel problems.
心理模拟依赖于我们的记忆——我们通过感知和经验学到的模式数据库。当你想象跳进一座火山时，你的大脑找不到任何个人经历，但它确实找到了相关的联想：熔岩是热的，热的东西会燃烧，烧伤是痛苦和危险的，痛苦和危险的东西是坏的。这套Associations是用来模拟眨眼的可能结果，导致仓促判断：VERY BAD IDEA。
Mental Simulation relies on our memory—the database of patterns we’ve learned via perception and experience. When you imagined jumping into a volcano, your brain couldn’t find any personal experiences, but it did find relevant Associations: lava is hot, hot things burn, burns are painful and dangerous, painful and dangerous things are bad. This set of Associations is used to simulate the probable result in the blink of an eye, resulting in a snap judgment: VERY BAD IDEA.
Mental Simulation 功能强大且用途广泛——它可用于无风险地测试最随意的动作。给定任何目标或场景，心理模拟就是您的大脑用来将 A 点连接到 B 点的方法，其中 A 点是您现在所在的位置，B 点是您的想象。您可以模拟的唯一限制是您的想象力。
Mental Simulation is powerful and versatile—it can be used to test even the most arbitrary actions without risk. Given any goal or scenario, Mental Simulation is what your brain uses to connect point A to point B, where point A is where you are now and point B is what you’re imagining. The only limitation on what you can simulate is your imagination.
例如，您将如何前往南极洲？这是一个随机问题，但是当您将最终结果牢记在心几秒钟后，您的大脑就会开始根据您学到的模式将这些点连接起来。“我可以打电话给旅行社。. . 游轮一直去南极洲。. . 我必须飞往阿根廷。. . 我必须买一件暖和的外套，”等等。所有这些想法都自然而然地发生了，你不需要付出太多努力——这就是你的大脑被设计来做的事情。
For example, how would you go about visiting Antarctica? It’s a random question, but when you hold the End Result in mind for a few seconds, your brain starts connecting the dots, based on the patterns you’ve learned. “I could call a travel agent . . . Cruises go to Antarctica all the time . . . I’d have to fly to Argentina . . . I’d have to buy a warm coat,” etc. All of this thinking just happens, without much effort on your part—it’s what your brain is designed to do.
心理模拟只有在你提供“B 点”时才有效，即使行动或目标是任意的——你可以模拟通往你能想象到的最不现实和最荒谬的目的地的路径。想想使用车载 GPS 系统——该系统可以为您提供准确的方向，但除非您输入目的地，否则它不会工作。目的地可以是你最好朋友的家，也可以是任意地点，比如新墨西哥州的阿尔伯克基。无论哪种方式，除非您提供目标，否则系统无法运行。同样的规则也适用于心理模拟——没有目的地，就没有模拟。
Mental Simulation only works if you supply a “point B,” even if the action or goal is arbitrary—you can simulate the path to even the most unrealistic and absurd destination you can imagine. Think of using a vehicle GPS system—the system can give you accurate directions, but it won’t work unless you enter a destination. That destination can be your best friend’s house or someplace random, like Albuquerque, New Mexico. Either way, unless you supply a Goal, the system can’t operate. The same rule applies to Mental Simulation—no destination, no simulation.
如果您学习如何按需应用心理模拟，它就会特别强大，我们将在讨论思维实验时详细探讨这一点。
Mental Simulation is particularly powerful if you learn how to apply it on demand, which we’ll explore in detail when we discuss Thought Experiments.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/mental-simulation/
解释与再解释
Interpretation and Reinterpretation
我们看不到事物的本来面目。我们如实看待事物。
We don’t see things as they are. We see things as we are.
——ANAÏS NIN，作家和日记作者
—ANAÏS NIN, AUTHOR AND DIARIST
您是否曾经收到过一封让您非常生气的人发来的电子邮件，后来才发现您误解了邮件的语气或意图？根据您认为自己的感知，您的想法得出了一个不正确的结论，只是发现有一种不同的方式来解释同样有意义的信息。
Have you ever received an email from someone that made you very angry, only to find out later that you misunderstood the tone or intent of the message? Your mind reached a conclusion that wasn’t true based on what you thought you perceived, only to discover there was a different way of interpreting the message that also made sense.
我们的大脑总是在模拟不同的行动过程，但有时没有足够的信息来确保感知模式是准确的。因为你不是无所不知的，你的头脑永远不会有完整的数据，所以它会通过你存储在记忆中的模式来解释你的感觉来填补缺失的部分。在没有相反信息的情况下，您会依靠自己的想法产生的解释而得出结论。
Our minds are always simulating different courses of action, but sometimes there’s not enough information to ensure that a perceived pattern is accurate. Since you’re not omniscient, your mind never has complete data, so it fills in missing pieces by interpreting what you sense via the patterns you have stored in memory. In the absence of information to the contrary, you’ll jump to conclusions by relying on the interpretation your mind creates.
这种填补空白的能力甚至发生在生理层面。在我们的视野中，我们有两个完全的盲点——我们的视神经连接到我们眼睛的点。我们实际上看不到那些地方，但我们的大脑会吸收所有周围的信息并填补空白。因此，我们似乎拥有坚实的视野，尽管这是我们大脑解释信息的能力造成的幻觉。
This capacity to fill in the blanks even happens on the physiological level. In our field of vision we have two complete blind spots—the points where our optic nerves connect to our eyes. We literally cannot see in those spots, but our brains take in all of the surrounding information and fill in the blanks. As a result, we appear to have a solid field of vision, even though it’s an illusion created by our brain’s ability to interpret information.
在没有信息的情况下，人脑依靠先前的模式和信息来做出解释。想一想您电子邮件帐户中的垃圾邮件文件夹——它使用以前的垃圾邮件集合来估计任何新收到的邮件也是垃圾邮件的可能性。这些邮件不会自我识别为垃圾邮件，但计算机的垃圾邮件过滤器无论如何都可以发现它们，使用过去电子邮件中的信息作为指导。
The human brain relies on prior patterns and information to make Interpretations in the absence of information. Think of the spam folder in your email account—it uses a collection of previous spam messages to estimate the probability that any new incoming message is also spam. The messages don’t self-identify as spam, but the computer’s spam filter can spot them anyway, using information from past emails as a guide.
每当您在遇到某人后立即决定喜欢某个人时，您的大脑都会做同样的事情——您的大脑依赖于您从过去与他人相处的经历中学到的模式来做出快速判断。
Your brain does the same thing every time you decide you like someone right after meeting them—your brain is relying on patterns you’ve learned via past experiences with other people to make a snap judgment.
这些 snap 解释也可以更改——一个称为重新解释的过程。想象遇到一个有魅力的人，只要你在身边，他就会变得安静而冷漠。乍一看，他们的行为可能会向您发出他们很害羞或不太喜欢您的信号。如果你的一个朋友告诉你你知道他们对你感兴趣，但是，你对那个人过去行为的解释可能会在瞬间改变。
These snap Interpretations can also be altered—a process called Reinterpretation. Think of meeting an attractive person who becomes quiet and aloof whenever you’re around. At first glance, their behavior may signal to you that they’re shy or don’t like you very much. If one of your friends tells you that they’re interested in you, however, your Interpretation of that person’s past behavior can change in an instant.
重新解释是可能的，因为你的记忆是无常的。我们的记忆不像计算机磁盘——每次我们回忆一段记忆时，它不会以相同的状态重新保存到相同的位置。每次我们回忆起某事时，记忆都会保存在不同的位置，但有一点不同：新记忆将包含我们对其所做的任何更改。
Reinterpretation is possible because your memory is impermanent. Our memories aren’t like computer disks—every time we recall a memory, it doesn’t resave to the same location in the same state. Every time we recall something, the memory is saved in a different location, with a twist: the new memory will include any alterations we’ve made to it.
通过回忆和重新解释过去的事件，可以改变您的信念和心理模拟。心理模拟和解释依赖于存储在内存中的模式。如果你想改变大脑模拟的结果，最好的方法是改变这些模拟所基于的信息的心理数据库。重新解释是您更改数据库的方式。
It’s possible to change your beliefs and Mental Simulations by recalling and Reinterpreting past events. Mental Simulation and Interpretation rely on patterns stored in memory. If you want to change the results of your brain’s simulations, the best approach is to alter the mental database of information those simulations are based on. Reinterpretation is how you change the database.
在重塑你的生活中，Morty Lefkoe 教授了一个过程，可以用来以一种简单而有用的方式重新解释过去的事件：
In Re-Create Your Life, Morty Lefkoe teaches a process that can be used to Reinterpret past events in a simple and useful way:
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识别不良模式。
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Identify the undesirable pattern.
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命名潜在的信念。
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Name the underlying belief.
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确定记忆信念的来源，包括尽可能多的感官细节。
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Identify the source of the belief in memory, including as much sensory detail as possible.
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描述记忆的可能的替代解释。
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Describe possible alternate Interpretations of the memory.
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意识到你最初的信念是一种解释，而不是现实。
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Realize that your original belief is an Interpretation, not reality.
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选择拒绝原始信念为“错误”。
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Choose to reject the original belief as “false.”
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选择接受您的重新解释为“真实”。
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Choose to accept your Reinterpretation as “true.”
这是我如何使用 Lefkoe 流程的一个例子： 解释我在宝洁品牌管理生涯的一种可能方式是，我是一个悲惨的失败者——我在管理快车道上，但我无法“切断它”，所以我“淘汰。” 有一段时间，我相信那是真的，但这种信念并没有很好地为我服务。当我试图探索替代路径时，我的头脑预测我的“失败”也会延伸到我的新项目。只要我的头脑依赖于这种解释来模拟未来，我就陷入了一个自我毁灭的循环。
Here’s an example of how I used Lefkoe’s process: One possible way of Interpreting my brand-management career at P&G is that I was a miserable failure—I was on the Management fast track, and I couldn’t “cut it,” so I “washed out.” For a while, I believed that was true, but that belief didn’t serve me very well. When I tried to explore alternate paths, my mind predicted that my “failure” would extend to my new projects as well. As long as my mind relied on this Interpretation to simulate the future, I was stuck in a self-defeating cycle.
还有另一种方式来解释我之前在宝洁的职业生涯：我的经历教会了我很多关于大公司如何运作的知识，我了解更多关于我擅长什么，我不喜欢做什么，以及我想如何投资我的时间。在 P&G 的工作帮助我发现了一条不适合我的道路，所以我停止了这条道路，开始尝试其他更适合我的优势和愿望的方法，直到我找到一个适合我的新职业选择——一个重大的胜利和巨大的生活改善。
There’s another way of Interpreting my previous career at P&G: My experience taught me a lot about how large corporations work, and I learned more about what I’m good at, what I don’t enjoy doing, and how I want to invest my time. Working at P&G helped me discover a path that didn’t work for me, so I stopped following that path and started experimenting with other approaches that better fit my strengths and desires until I found a new career option that worked for me—a major victory and a huge life improvement.
哪种解释是“正确的”？两者都是有效的解释。当它创建第一个解释时，我的头脑并没有出现故障，但那个解释并没有很好地为我服务。重新解释情况并接受第二个版本是“真实的”更有用——没有它，你可能不会读这本书。
Which Interpretation is “true”? Both are valid Interpretations. My mind wasn’t malfunctioning when it created the first Interpretation, but that Interpretation didn’t serve me very well. Reinterpreting the situation and accepting the second version as “true” was much more useful—without it, you probably wouldn’t be reading this book.
重新诠释你的过去，你将增强你在当下成就大事的能力。
Reinterpret your past and you’ll enhance your ability to make great things happen in the present.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/interpretation/
动机
Motivation
但我不想！！！
BUT I DON’T WANNA!!!
——到处都是两岁的孩子
—TWO-YEAR-OLD CHILDREN EVERYWHERE
动机是您可能一直在想的事情，使用诸如“我有动力完成这件事”或“我现在没有动力去做这件事”之类的短语。由于我们很多人都依赖这个词来解释我们的日常经历，因此有必要了解我们在说什么。
Motivation is something that you probably think about all the time, using phrases like “I’m feeling motivated to get this done” or “I’m not feeling very motivated to do this right now.” Since so many of us rely on the term to explain our daily experience, it’s worthwhile to understand what we’re talking about.
动机是一种情绪状态，它将我们大脑中负责感觉的部分与负责行动的部分联系起来。回到作为基本模型的洋葱脑，动机是中脑（感知世界）和后脑（向我们的身体发送信号以采取行动）之间的联系。在大多数情况下，动机是自动的——我们的思想感知到事物的现状和我们希望它们成为的样子之间的差异，而身体会采取行动消除差异。
Motivation is an emotional state that links the parts of our brain that feel with the parts that are responsible for action. Going back to the Onion Brain as a basic model, Motivation is the link between the midbrain (which perceives the world) and the hindbrain (which sends signals to our body to take action). In most cases, Motivation is automatic—our mind perceives a difference between the way things are and the way we want them to be, and the body acts to eliminate the difference.
你可以将动机的体验分解为两种基本的欲望：朝着想要的事物前进和远离不是的东西。满足我们核心人类驱动力的事物看起来令人向往，因此我们会产生向它们前进的冲动。看起来危险、可怕或具有威胁性的事物是不受欢迎的，因此我们会产生远离它们的冲动。
You can break down the experience of Motivation into two basic desires: moving toward things that are desirable and moving away from things that aren’t. Things that fulfill our Core Human Drives appear desirable, so we experience an impulse to move toward them. Things that appear dangerous, scary, or threatening are undesirable, so we experience an impulse to move away from them.
一般来说，“远离”优先于“走向”。原因回到穴居人综合症——逃离狮子比做午餐更重要。
In general, “moving away” takes priority over “moving toward.” The reason comes back to Caveman Syndrome—running away from a lion takes priority over cooking lunch.
假设您有一个令人兴奋的机会开始一项新业务。一种兴奋的感觉可能会让你走向那个机会。同时，如果机会要求您离开高薪工作，这会让您感觉有风险，您可能会被迫离开同样的机会，从而导致冲突。只要风险大于兴奋，你就会犹豫不决，即使如果你采取飞跃，你永远不会处于危险之中的可能性很小。我们头脑中的这种安全机制是出于非常充分的理由而发展起来的，但是今天，我们做出的大多数决定都没有生死攸关的后果。
Let’s say you have an exciting opportunity to start a new business. A feeling of excitement may cause you to move toward that opportunity. At the same time, if the opportunity requires you to leave a high-paying job, which feels risky, you may be compelled to move away from the very same opportunity, resulting in Conflict. As long as the risk outweighs the excitement, you’ll hesitate, even if there’s very little chance you’ll ever be in danger if you take the leap. This safety mechanism in our minds developed for very good reasons, but today, most of the decisions we make don’t have life-and-death consequences.
动机是一种情绪，而不是逻辑、理性的活动。仅仅因为你的前脑认为你应该有动力去做某事并不意味着你就会有动力去做那件事。（要是这么简单就好了，对吧？）很多时候，隐藏在中脑中的心理模拟、模式、冲突和解释会阻碍我们朝着想要完成的目标取得进展。只要发出“远离”的信号，你就很难有动力朝着你想要的方向前进。
Motivation is an emotion—not a logical, rational activity. Just because your forebrain thinks you should be motivated to do something does not mean you’ll become motivated to do that thing. (If only it were that easy, right?) Very often, Mental Simulations, patterns, Conflicts, and Interpretations hidden in the midbrain can get in the way of making progress toward what we want to accomplish. As long as there are “move away from” signals being sent, you’ll have a hard time feeling motivated to move toward what you want.
同样，你不能通过大喊大叫让其他人更快地工作来“激励”他们——教官式的方法所完成的只是让他们想离开你。如果他们认为不服从对他们自己有某种威胁，他们可能会暂时服从你，但你可以打赌他们会在第一个可用的机会时离开与你合作。
In the same vein, you can’t “motivate” other people by yelling at them to work faster—all the drill-sergeant approach accomplishes is making them want to move away from you. They may comply with you temporarily if they perceive some threat to themselves in noncompliance, but you can bet that they’ll move away from working with you at the first available opportunity.
消除迫使您远离潜在威胁的内心冲突，您会发现自己正在体验一种朝着自己想要的方向前进的动力。
Eliminate the inner conflicts that compel you to move away from potential threats and you’ll find yourself experiencing a feeling of Motivation to move toward what you want.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/motivation/
抑制
Inhibition
抑制是停止的能力：延迟我们的反应，直到我们做好充分的准备。
Inhibition is the ability to stop: to delay our response until we are adequately prepared to make it.
——Michael J. GELB，《如何像达芬奇一样思考》的作者
—MICHAEL J. GELB, AUTHOR OF HOW TO THINK LIKE LEONARDO DA VINCI
信不信由你，您的大部分日常行为几乎不需要有意识的思考。
Believe it or not, most of your daily actions require very little conscious thought.
大多数时候，我们的身体和思想处于自动驾驶状态——我们的思想感知我们周围的世界，将我们的环境和行为与内部参考水平进行比较，并根据我们的看法、愿望和价值观行事。想一想开车：通过练习，你的身体会做一切必要的事情来让汽车保持在路上，而不需要太多有意识的思考。
Most of the time, our bodies and minds are on autopilot—our minds sense the world around us, compare our Environment and actions against internal Reference Levels, and act in accordance with our perceptions, desires, and values. Think about driving a car: with practice, your body does everything necessary to keep the car on the road, without requiring much conscious thought.
然而，偶尔忽略自动驾驶仪并做一些不同的事情是值得的。如果你在树林里偶然发现一只熊，你最不想做的就是逃跑，即使那是你的直觉告诉你要做的。如果你跑，熊可能会认为你看起来像午餐并追你。
Every once in a while, however, it pays to ignore the autopilot and do something different. If you stumble across a bear in the woods, the last thing you want to do is run, even though that’s what your instincts may be telling you to do. If you run, the bear is likely to decide you look like lunch and chase you down.
与其跑步，更有效的方法是坚守阵地，让自己显得高大、喧闹、具有威胁性。表现出威胁需要你抑制自己的自然反应，但这会让熊将你视为威胁并决定让你一个人呆着。
Instead of running, it’s more effective to stand your ground and make yourself appear as big and loud and threatening as you can. Appearing to be a threat requires you to inhibit your natural response, but it’ll cause the bear to see you as a threat and decide to leave you alone.
抑制是暂时超越我们自然倾向的能力。如果你曾经容忍过你的一个兄弟姐妹（或同事）表现得不成熟、讨厌或烦人，抑制会阻止你做一些你以后会后悔的事情。
Inhibition is the ability to temporarily override our natural inclinations. If you’ve ever put up with one of your siblings (or colleagues) acting immature, obnoxious, or annoying, Inhibition prevented you from doing something you would have regretted later.
意志力是抑制的燃料。正如我们在洋葱脑部分所讨论的那样，前脑的工作是歧义解决、决策制定和抑制。每当我们抑制对环境的自然反应时，意志力就会发挥作用。我们的中脑和后脑是自动驾驶仪，而前脑是超驰。从这个意义上说，“自由意志”有点误导——“自由意志”是更准确的描述。
Willpower is the fuel of Inhibition. As we discussed in the section on the Onion Brain, the forebrain’s job is ambiguity resolution, decision making, and Inhibition. Whenever we inhibit our natural responses to our Environment, willpower is at work. Our midbrain and hindbrain are the autopilot, and the forebrain is the override. In that sense, “free will” is a bit misleading—“free won’t” is a more accurate description.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/inhibition/
状态信号
Status Signals
人民剧院，胡说八道！称它为贵族剧院，人们就会来。
The People’s Theatre, what nonsense! Call it the Aristocrat’s Theatre and the people will come.
——JULES RENARD，十九世纪法国作家
—JULES RENARD, NINETEENTH-CENTURY FRENCH AUTHOR
每一天的每一分钟，你大脑中一个重要的部分都在跟踪你如何与世界其他地方进行比较。不费吹灰之力，您可以列出以下内容：
Every minute of every day, a nontrivial part of your brain has been devoted to keeping track of how you measure up against the rest of the world. Without very much effort, you could make a list of things like:
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谁比你更有魅力。
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Who is more attractive than you.
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谁比你强。
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Who is stronger than you.
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谁比你有钱。
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Who is wealthier than you.
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谁比你更有影响力。
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Who is more influential than you.
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谁比你厉害。
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Who is more powerful than you.
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谁比你更有名。
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Who is more famous than you.
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谁在某个特定的技能领域比你更好（不管你是否擅长那个领域）
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Who is better than you are in some specific area of skill (regardless of whether or not you’re skilled in that area at all)
人类是群居动物——我们生来就是为了在群体中生存和发展。当涉及到确保在经常充满敌意的环境中生存时，群体行为赋予了许多优势，但它也引入了对稀缺资源的内部竞争。
Humans are social creatures—we’re built to survive and thrive in groups. Group behavior confers many advantages when it comes to ensuring survival in an often hostile Environment, but it also introduces intragroup competition for scarce resources.
在群体中成功的个体往往是那些在明显的生殖生存维度（如美貌、财富、力量、联盟建设或群体影响力）上最成功竞争的人，以及那些通过发明新的竞争维度进行创新的人。这就是为什么人类有直接的动机在数以百万计的不同领域探索、创造和培养技能：在某事上成为“最好的”是提高社会地位的直接方式。
The individuals who prosper within the group tend to be the ones who most successfully compete on obvious reproductive survival dimensions (like beauty, wealth, strength, coalition-building, or group influence) and those who innovate by inventing a new dimension to compete on. That’s why humans have direct incentives to explore, create, and build skill in millions upon millions of different areas: being “the best” in something is a straightforward way to increase Social Status.
相对地位通常很难精确计算，因此我们依赖地位信号：一些无形品质的有形指标，可以提高一个人的社会地位或群体归属感。稀有或昂贵的物品、奖项、荣誉、公认的竞争胜利以及可验证的公众赞誉都是状态信号的例子。
Relative status is often tricky to calculate precisely, so we rely on Status Signals: tangible indicators of some intangible quality that increases a person’s Social Status or group affiliation. Rare or expensive items, awards, honors, victory in recognized competition, and verifiable public acclaim are all examples of Status Signals.
地位问题渗透到人类的欲望和行动中。你有没有梦想成为一名电影明星？表演者还是音乐家？职业运动员？宇航员？首席执行官？政治家还是世界领袖？名人？这些都是具有重要社会地位的职业，而地位是对进入这些领域、竞争和保持地位所需的极端要求和牺牲的补偿的很大一部分。
Status concerns permeate human desires and actions. Have you ever dreamt of being a movie star? Performer or musician? Professional athlete? Astronaut? CEO? Politician or world leader? Celebrity? Those are all occupations that carry significant Social Status, and the status is a huge part of the compensation for the otherwise extreme demands and sacrifices required to break into, compete in, and maintain position in those fields.
曾经想购买宾利、兰博基尼、法拉利或特斯拉 Model S？私人飞机还是您自己的游艇？私人岛屿？这就是地位驱动的认知：所有这些东西，除了它们的效用之外，都是财富的信号。
Ever wanted to buy a Bentley, Lamborghini, Ferrari, or Tesla Model S? A private jet or your own yacht? A private island? That’s status-motivated cognition: all of these things, aside from their utility, signal wealth.
是否曾经想过赢得诺贝尔奖、成为时代杂志的年度人物、赢得奥斯卡奖或获得一些享有盛誉的荣誉勋章？这些奖项表明了重要性、技能或影响力。
Ever wanted to win a Nobel Prize, be Time magazine’s Person of the Year, win an Oscar, or be awarded some prestigious medal of honor? These sorts of awards signal importance, skill, or influence.
当某人取得令人印象深刻的成就、购买一些很酷的东西或获得某种难以吸引的注意力时，是否曾感到嫉妒？所讨论的好处不会以任何方式伤害或削弱你，但他们的好运确实会改变你认为的相对地位，即使有形的好处是微乎其微的。
Ever felt envy when someone accomplishes something impressive, purchases something cool, or receives some sort of difficult-to-attract attention? The benefit in question doesn’t harm or diminish you in any way, but their good fortune does change your perceived relative status, even if the tangible benefit is minimal.
这种思维和行为模式在各个层面都起作用。我们大量的认知资源用于跟踪我们的当前状态以及我们相对于他人的状态变化。同样，影响我们情绪和行为的许多因素都可以归结为一个问题：“这会以某种有意义的方式提高我的社会地位吗？”
This sort of pattern of thought and behavior operates at all levels. A substantial amount of our cognitive resources are devoted to tracking our current status and changes in our status relative to others. Likewise, many things that factor into our emotions and behavior boil down to a single question: “Will this improve my Social Status in some meaningful way?”
劳力士手表并不比天美时手表好，但这不是重点：它是财富的明显标志。同样，奥运金牌是为赢得胜利而进行的多年高强度训练，以每小时货币计算的微薄补偿。不仅如此，在宏伟的计划中，谁能够比第二好的竞争对手跑得更快一点或玩得更好一点真的很重要吗？同样，这不是重点：奥运金牌是全球竞争中公认的胜利象征。这与材料的价值或技能的价值无关。这是关于授予获胜者的地位。
A Rolex doesn’t tell time any better than a Timex, but that’s not the point: it’s an obvious signal of wealth. In the same way, an Olympic gold medal is poor compensation on a currency-per-hour basis for the years of intense training it takes to win. Not only that, does it really matter, in the grand scheme of things, who was able to run a little faster or play a game a little better than the second-best competitor? Again, that’s not the point: An Olympic gold medal is a recognized symbol of victory in worldwide competition. It’s not about the value of the materials or the value of the skill. It’s about the status conferred to the winner.
追求地位是人性的一部分，可以被善恶利用。学习识别地位驱动的行为——在你自己和在其他人身上——将帮助你理解为什么人们倾向于以某些可预测的方式行事，帮助你避免常见的陷阱，并提高你做出明智决定的能力。
Status seeking is a part of human nature and can be harnessed for good or ill. Learning to recognize status-motivated behavior—in yourself and in other people—will help you understand why people tend to act in certain predictable ways, help you avoid common pitfalls, and improve your ability make wise decisions.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/status-signals/
状态故障
Status Malfunction
人类几乎是独一无二的，他们有能力从他人的经验中学习，但他们明显不愿意这样做也是值得注意的。
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
——道格拉斯·亚当斯，幽默家和《漫游指南》系列的作者
—DOUGLAS ADAMS, HUMORIST AND AUTHOR OF THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE SERIES
地位的竞争往往是极端的。潜在的感知状态增加越大，严重错误或错误投资的风险就越高。
Competition for status is often extreme. The greater the potential perceived status increase, the higher the risk of serious error or Malinvestment.
我将这种趋势称为状态故障：一个选项在状态方面看起来越有吸引力，它就越有可能存在重大缺点或陷阱（考虑到对该状态的激烈竞争），并且您更有可能忽略或低估这些缺点无论如何都要追求那个选择。
I call this tendency Status Malfunction: the more attractive an option looks in terms of status, the more likely it is to have significant drawbacks or pitfalls (given extreme competition for that status), and the more likely you are to ignore or undervalue those drawbacks and pursue that option anyway.
让我们回到奥运奖牌的例子。每个人都在关注金牌得主，而忽略了大多数奥运希望者都在为支付日常生活费用而苦苦挣扎的事实。保持高强度的培训计划通常与经营企业或从事全职工作不相容，赞助机会也很有限。4个
Let’s go back to the Olympic medal example. Everyone pays attention to the gold medalists and ignores the fact that most Olympic hopefuls struggle to pay their day-to-day living expenses. Maintaining an intense training schedule is often not compatible with running a business or holding down a full-time job, and sponsorship opportunities are limited.4
对于胜利者来说，无论是在地位还是在赞助等经济机会方面，战利品都是战利品：对于该领域的其他人来说，为竞争做好准备的代价是经济困难和不确定的未来。
To the victors go the spoils, both in terms of status and financial opportunities like sponsorships: for the rest of the field, the price of being ready for competition is monetary hardship and an uncertain future.
我碰巧认识几位为百老汇舞台增光添彩的表演者。这条道路的好处显而易见：如果你担任主角，你的名字就会名扬四海，在成千上万的人面前表演，并有机会建立一大批崇拜的粉丝。缺点往往被新手低估：绝大多数试镜都会导致拒绝，每个项目都是投机的，追求一个机会可能会让你不再为他人着想，而且工作的要求让养家糊口变得充满挑战。
I happen to know several performers who grace Broadway stages. The benefits of that path are easy to see: if you’re cast in a leading role, you literally have your name in lights, perform in front of tens of thousands, and have the opportunity to build a legion of adoring fans. The drawbacks are often underappreciated by novices: the vast majority of auditions will lead to rejections, every project is speculative, pursuing one opportunity might remove you from consideration for others, and the demands of the work make it challenging to support a family.
如果你得到一个角色，你会发现制片人拥有大部分权力，因为有其他演员愿意取代你的位置：他们的Next Best Alternative总是比你的好，这会降低你的谈判能力。即使在最好的情况下和最高级别，演出也有限制：无论你表现得多么出色，几个月后你都会失业并寻找新的演出。这是一种光鲜亮丽的生活，但也是一种艰难的生活。
If you land a role, you’ll find producers have most of the power because there are other actors willing to take your place: their Next Best Alternative is always better than yours, which reduces your negotiating power. Even in the best cases and at the highest levels, shows have limited runs: no matter how well you perform, you’ll be unemployed and looking for a new gig in a few months. It’s a glamorous life, but it’s also a difficult one.
所有类型的表演者都存在同样的动态：愿意做这项工作的人多于需要填补的职位。这是一个赢家通吃的市场，任何时候都只有少数临时赢家。
The same dynamic exists for performers of all kinds: there are more people willing to do the work than there are positions to fill. It’s a winner-take-all market, and there are only a few temporary winners at any given time.
这并不是说你永远不应该为地位高的角色而竞争：对于获胜者来说，好处是相当可观的。了解状态失调可以帮助您从心理和情感上从状态的神秘感中退后一步，以清醒的头脑审视您的选择和潜在的机会，并在您做出承诺之前了解您所处的日常现实。
That’s not to say that you should never compete for high-status roles: for the winners, the benefits can be quite substantial. Understanding Status Malfunction helps you take a mental and emotional step back from the Mystique of status, examine your options and potential opportunities with a clear mind, and understand the day-to-day realities of what you’re getting yourself into before you commit.
状态故障也是一种识别其他人忽视的机会的方法。正如我在雇佣军规则部分提到的，垃圾处理、管道和石油开采等业务地位不高，但它们可能非常有利可图。许多财富是由愿意在低地位市场从事高质量工作的企业家和企业主创造的。
Status Malfunction is also a way to identify opportunities that other people overlook. As I mentioned in the section on the Mercenary Rule, businesses like trash disposal, plumbing, and oil extraction aren’t high status, but they can be quite lucrative. Many fortunes have been built by entrepreneurs and business owners willing to do high-quality work in low-status markets.
如果您愿意忽略诱人的干扰并专注于做有效的事情，那么有数百万种方法可以在生活的重要领域取得更好的成果。
There are millions of ways to get better results in important areas of life if you’re willing to ignore alluring distractions and focus on doing what works.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/status-malfunction/
损失厌恶
Loss Aversion
我们的疑虑是叛徒，它让我们失去了我们通常可能因害怕尝试而赢得的好处。
Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win, by fearing to attempt.
——威廉·莎士比亚，衡量衡量
—WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE, MEASURE FOR MEASURE
几年前，我的妻子凯尔西决定从一个投资账户中提取一些资金。当经纪人将钱存入她的银行账户时，他们错误地额外存入了 10,000 美元。
A few years ago, my wife, Kelsey, decided to withdraw some funds from an investment account. When the brokerage deposited the money into her bank account, they deposited an additional $10,000 by mistake.
这应该没什么大不了的——这是一个简单的错误。然而，在情感层面上，凯尔西觉得她正在“失去”额外的钱，即使那根本不是她的。
It shouldn’t have been a big deal—it was a simple mistake. On an emotional level, however, Kelsey felt like she was “losing” the extra money, even though it wasn’t hers at all.
损失厌恶是指人们讨厌失去的东西超过他们喜欢得到的东西。心理学能够量化的关系很少，但这就是其中之一：人们对潜在损失的反应是对同等收益机会的反应的两倍。如果您查看您的投资组合并注意到它增加了 100%，您会感觉非常好。如果您注意到您的投资组合下降了 100%，您会感到很糟糕。
Loss Aversion is the idea that people hate to lose things more than they like to gain them. There are very few relationships that psychology is able to quantify, but this is one of them: people respond twice as strongly to potential loss as they do to the opportunity of an equivalent gain. If you look at your investment portfolio and notice that it’s increased by 100 percent, you’ll feel pretty good. If you notice that your portfolio went down 100 percent, you’ll feel horrible.
损失厌恶解释了为什么在动机方面威胁通常优先于机会。过去，损失的威胁需要立即引起注意，因为损失代价高昂——甚至危及生命。亲人死于掠食者、疾病、暴晒或饥饿通常是一种可怕的经历，因此我们天生就会竭尽全力防止这种情况发生。我们现在面临的潜在损失很少像现在这样严重，但我们的思想仍然自动将它们放在首位。
Loss Aversion explains why threats usually take precedence over opportunities when it comes to Motivation. The threat of loss used to require immediate attention, because losses were costly—even life threatening. Dying or losing a loved one to a predator, sickness, exposure, or starvation is universally a horrible experience, so we’re built to do everything in our power to prevent that from happening. The potential losses we face now are rarely as serious, but our minds still give them automatic priority.
损失厌恶也解释了为什么不确定性看起来有风险。根据您查看的研究，80% 到 90% 的成年人认为拥有自己的企业并为自己工作会很棒。如果那是真的，为什么没有更多的人创业呢？损失厌恶使他们无法采取行动：失去一份稳定（和某种程度上可以预测的）工作的威胁比创造一个新的、自我维持的业务的机会更能引起注意。创业涉及潜在损失的幽灵，这会阻止人们从一开始就开始创业。
Loss Aversion also explains why uncertainty appears risky. Depending on the study you look at, anywhere between 80 and 90 percent of adults think it would be great to own their own business and work for themselves. If that’s true, why don’t more people start businesses? Loss Aversion keeps them from acting: the threat of losing a steady (and somewhat predictable) job commands more Attention than the opportunity to create a new, self-sustaining business. Starting a business involves the specter of potential loss, which prevents people from getting started in the first place.
损失厌恶在经济衰退和萧条时期尤为明显。失去工作、房屋或退休基金的很大一部分不会危及生命，但感觉仍然很糟糕。结果，人们往往变得更加保守，避免可能使事情变得更糟的风险。然而，其中一些风险——比如开始一项新业务——可能会带来一个让事情变得更好的重要机会。
Loss Aversion is particularly pronounced in recessions and depressions. Losing a job, a home, or a significant percentage of your retirement fund isn’t life threatening, but it feels horrible all the same. As a result, people tend to become more conservative, avoiding risks that could make things worse. Yet some of those risks—like starting a new business—may present a major opportunity to make things better.
克服损失厌恶的最好方法是使用重新解释将损失风险视为“没什么大不了的”。赌场每天都在克服损失厌恶——从某种意义上说，拉斯维加斯大道上的华丽建筑是人类的巨大纪念碑愚蠢。赌场如何鼓励人们玩数学上肯定会输钱的游戏？
The best way to overcome Loss Aversion is to use Reinterpretation to consider the risk of loss as “no big deal.” Casinos are in the business of overcoming Loss Aversion every single day—in a sense, the ostentatious buildings on the Las Vegas Strip are enormous monuments to human stupidity. How do casinos encourage people to play games in which they’re mathematically certain to lose money?
赌场通过抽象损失获胜。赌场不是让玩家用被认为有价值的货币进行赌博，而是将货币转换为筹码或借记卡上的价值，这些感觉不那么有价值。当玩家随着时间的推移失去这些“假”钱时，赌场将提供“奖励”，如免费饮料、T 恤、房间升级或其他好处，以减轻任何剩余的失落感。结果，输钱变得“没什么大不了的”，因此玩家继续玩游戏——并继续夜复一夜地输钱。
Casinos win by abstracting the loss. Instead of having players gamble with currency, which is perceived as valuable, the casino converts currency into chips or value on debit cards, which don’t feel as valuable. As the player loses this “fake” money over time, the casino will provide “rewards” like free drinks, T-shirts, room upgrades, or other benefits to alleviate any remaining sense of loss. As a result, losing becomes “no big deal,” so players continue to play—and continue to lose money night after night.
如果您向潜在客户提供报价，那么损失规避就是风险逆转如此重要的原因。人们讨厌失去，这让他们感到愚蠢和被利用。因此，他们会竭尽全力确保自己不会失败，而确保他们不会做出愚蠢决定的最好方法就是一开始就不购买您的报价。如果您从事销售业务，那将是一个大问题。通过提供退款保证或类似的风险逆转提议来消除这种风险认知，人们会觉得该决定的风险较小，从而带来更多的销售额。
Loss Aversion is why Risk Reversal is so important if you’re presenting an offer to a potential customer. People hate to lose, which makes them feel stupid and taken advantage of. As a result, they’ll go to great lengths to ensure that they don’t lose, and the best way to ensure that they don’t make a stupid decision is to not buy your offer in the first place. If you’re in the business of making sales, that’s a big problem. Eliminate this perception of risk by offering a money-back guarantee or similar offer of Risk Reversal and people will feel the decision is less risky, resulting in more sales.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/loss-aversion/
威胁锁定
Threat Lockdown
在恐惧的精神下，能做的事情是多么的少啊。
How little can be done under the spirit of fear.
—FLORENCE NIGHTINGALE，专业护理先驱
—FLORENCE NIGHTINGALE, PIONEER OF PROFESSIONAL NURSING
当晚上有什么事情发生时，你正在快速入睡。几乎立刻，您就会警觉起来——您的心率会加快，您的瞳孔会放大以吸收更多光线和细节，肾上腺素和皮质醇等应激激素会充斥您的血液。你的头脑会识别可能的噪音源、逃生路线和潜在的防御武器。眨眼之间，您已准备好保护自己免受威胁，无论它是什么。
You’re fast asleep when something goes bump in the night. Almost immediately, you’re alert—your heart rate increases, your pupils dilate to take in more light and detail, and stress hormones like adrenaline and cortisol flood your bloodstream. Your mind identifies the likely source of the noise, escape routes, and potential defensive weapons. In the blink of an eye, you’re ready to defend yourself against the threat, whatever it might be.
当您的大脑察觉到潜在的威胁（无论是真实的还是想象的）时，您的身体就会准备好做出反应。这种自动的生理反应旨在帮助您做以下三件事之一来消除威胁：战斗、逃跑或冻结。只要您处于“保护模式”，除了专注于威胁之外就很难做任何事情。直到你搜查房子，你不可能再睡着了——只有在你确定没有面临威胁后，你的身体才会退出保护模式。
When your mind perceives a potential threat—real or imaginary—your body prepares to respond. This automatic physiological response is designed to help you do one of three things to eliminate the threat: fight, flee, or freeze. As long as you’re in “protection mode,” it’s difficult to do anything other than fixate on the threat. Until you search the house, there’s no way you’ll be able to go back to sleep—your body will only come out of protective mode after you’re sure there’s no threat to face.
战斗、逃跑或冻结的潜意识选择取决于大脑对情况的自动心理模拟。如果您的大脑预测您可以通过战斗获胜，那么您就会战斗。如果你的大脑预测你可以通过逃跑“获胜”，你就会逃跑。如果你的大脑预测你无法逃脱，你就会僵住，希望威胁会过去。冻结会让你的大脑进入威胁锁定——保护模式——这使得除了专注于威胁之外很难做任何事情。
The subconscious choice to fight, flee, or freeze is dependent on your brain’s automatic Mental Simulation of the situation. If your brain predicts you can win if you fight, you’ll fight. If your brain predicts you can “win” by getting away, you’ll flee. If your brain predicts you can’t get away, you’ll freeze in the hope that the threat will pass you by. Freezing makes your brain go into Threat Lockdown—protection mode—which makes it difficult to do anything other than fixate on the threat.
威胁锁定是一种旨在帮助您保护自己的建设性响应，但与许多古老的本能一样，它在我们的现代环境中经常会出现故障。今天你面临的威胁远没有那么严重，但它们往往是长期的。
Threat Lockdown is a constructive response designed to help you defend yourself, but like many ancient instincts, it often malfunctions in our modern environment. The threats you face are far less acute today, but they are often chronic.
在过去，当威胁来自捕食者或愤怒的部落首领时，封锁响应是建设性的，因为它将我们的精力集中在生存和/或部落的一部分上。尽管每天在我们脑海中闪过的想法与我们远古祖先的想法没有什么共同之处，但运行这些想法的硬件——我们的大脑——仍然是一样的，并且一直在寻找非常古老的威胁很新的环境。结果，我们吃得太多，运动太少，在应对生气的老板或拖欠的抵押贷款时，本能的战斗、冻结或逃跑行为并不是很有建设性。
In the olden days, when the threat was a predator or an angry tribal chief, the lockdown response was constructive, since it focused our energy on staying alive and/or part of the tribe. Even though the thoughts that run through our heads on a daily basis have little in common with those of our ancient ancestors, the hardware those thoughts are running on—our brains—is still the same and is on the lookout for very old threats in a very new environment. As a result, we eat too much and exercise too little, and the instinctive behaviors of fighting, freezing, or running away aren’t very constructive when dealing with an angry boss or an overdue mortgage payment.
股票市场的周期性动荡是威胁锁定行动的一个很好的例子。2008 年底的股市崩盘引发了一阵恐慌和紧张不安，甚至在那些没有失去家园或工作危险的人中也是如此。在需要提高生产率以保持公司良好状态的时候，仅仅发生坏事的可能性就会使企业陷入停顿。员工没有专注于做好工作，而是将大部分时间和精力花在担心未来会发生什么，并闲聊谁是下一个被砍的人，这减少了创造的总价值，并增加了公司未来变得更糟的可能性.
Periodic turmoil in the stock market is an excellent example of Threat Lockdown in action. The stock market crash in late 2008 sparked a flurry of panic and hand-wringing, even among people who were in no danger of losing their homes or jobs. The mere possibility of bad things happening grinds businesses to a halt at the very time increased productivity is needed to keep the firm in good shape. Instead of focusing on doing good work, employees spend most of their time and energy worrying about what the future holds and gossiping about who’s next on the chopping block, decreasing the overall amount of value created and increasing the likelihood that the firm’s future will get worse.
威胁锁定可能成为恶性循环。如果您不幸遇到不得不裁员的情况，最好立即快速裁员，然后向剩下的员工保证不会再裁员。制作。裁员传言或员工怀疑“我会不会是下一个”是威胁锁定的秘诀。
Threat Lockdown can become a vicious cycle. If you’re ever in the unfortunate situation of having to lay off workers, it’s best to make cuts fast and all at once, then reassure remaining employees that no more cuts will be made. Rumors of layoffs or workers wondering “if I’ll be next” is a recipe for Threat Lockdown.
如果您遇到威胁锁定，请不要试图压制威胁信号。许多研究表明，积极的压抑不会使感知消失——相反，它会使信号更强。想一想当一个小孩子想要引起您的注意但您忽略了他们时他们会做什么——他们会增加他们制造的骚动，直到他们确定您已经注意到他们为止。你的大脑做同样的事情——压抑只会让威胁信号更强。向您的大脑发送一个“已收到消息，可以安全继续”的心理信号是一种简单而有效的方法，可以让您不再专注于该问题，从而可以考虑适当的回应。
If you’re experiencing Threat Lockdown, don’t try to repress the threat signal. Many studies have shown that active repression doesn’t make a perception go away—instead, it makes the signals stronger. Think of what a small child does when they want to get your attention, but you ignore them—they’ll increase the commotion they make until they’re sure you’ve noticed them. Your brain does the same thing—repression only makes the threat signals stronger. Sending a mental “message received, safe to proceed” signal to your brain is a simple and effective way to make yourself stop fixating on the issue so you can consider appropriate responses.
应对威胁锁定的关键是让您相信威胁已不存在。你可以通过以下两种方式之一做到这一点：（1）你可以让你的大脑相信从来没有任何威胁，或者（2）你可以让你的大脑相信威胁已经过去了。说服您的想法从来没有威胁就相当于在午夜在黑暗中搜查您的房子 - 搜索证明不存在威胁，因此离开保护模式是安全的。说服你的想法威胁已经过去了做同样的事情 - 威胁已经消失并且不能再伤害你，所以继续下去是安全的。
The key to dealing with Threat Lockdown is to convince your mind that the threat no longer exists. You can do that in one of two ways: (1) you can convince your mind there was never any threat, or (2) you can convince your mind the threat has passed. Convincing your mind there was never a threat is the equivalent of searching your house in the dark at midnight—the search proves that no threat exists, so it’s safe to leave protective mode. Convincing your mind that the threat has passed does the same thing—the threat is gone and can no longer harm you, so it’s safe to carry on.
有时很难解除威胁锁定，特别是如果您已经使用了很长时间。因为保护模式是生理性的，所以通常最好使用生理手段让自己平静下来。锻炼、睡眠和冥想可以代谢或抵消充斥您身体的压力荷尔蒙，从而帮助您平静心情。当您感到不知所措时，快跑或举重会对您的精神状态产生奇迹。
Sometimes it’s difficult to defuse Threat Lockdown, particularly if you’ve been in it for a long time. Because protective mode is physiological, it’s often best to use physiological means to calm yourself down. Exercise, sleep, and meditation can help calm your mind by metabolizing or counteracting the stress hormones that have been flooding your body. When you’re feeling overwhelmed, going for a quick run or lifting weights can do wonders for your state of mind.
注意威胁信号，然后尽你所能向你的头脑证明威胁不再存在，你就会摆脱威胁锁定。
Notice the threat signal, then do what you can to prove to your mind the threat no longer exists, and you’ll break yourself out of Threat Lockdown.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/threat-lockdown/
认知范围限制
Cognitive Scope Limitation
一个人的死亡是一场悲剧。一百万人死亡是一个统计数字。
One death is a tragedy. A million deaths is a statistic.
——KURT TUCHOLSKY，讽刺作家
—KURT TUCHOLSKY, SATIRIST
如果你有机会在旅游旺季穿过纽约市时代广场的中央，你很快就会意识到，对于大多数向你走来的人来说，你不是一个人。你是一个物体——一个挡在他们所在位置和他们想去的地方之间的障碍。结果，他们会肆无忌惮地碾压你。
If you ever have a chance to walk through the middle of Times Square in New York City during tourist season, you’ll soon realize that, to most of the people moving toward you, you are not a person. You are an object—an obstacle standing between where they are and where they want to go. As a result, they’ll run you over with impunity.
无论一个人有多聪明，一个人的头脑所能处理、存储和响应的信息量是有上限的。超出该限制，信息可能会被视为抽象术语，但不会像与个人经历或疑虑相关的信息那样被视为紧急和重要。
No matter how intelligent a person is, there’s an upper bound on the amount of information a single mind can process, store, and respond to. Above that limit, information may be considered in abstract terms, but it’s not treated as urgent and important as information related to that individual’s personal experience or concerns.
“邓巴数”是人类一次可以维持的稳定社会关系数量的理论认知极限。根据英国人类学家罗宾·邓巴 (Robin Dunbar) 的说法，人类的认知能力可以记录大约 150 种亲密的人际关系。在这个有限的圈子之外，我们开始把人当作对象来对待，而不是像对待个人，随着时间的推移，超出这个限制的人群可能会分裂成子群体。
“Dunbar’s number” is a theoretical cognitive limit on the number of stable social relationships humans can maintain at one time. According to Robin Dunbar, a British anthropologist, humans have the cognitive capacity to keep track of somewhere around 150 close personal connections. Beyond this limited circle, we start treating people less like individuals and more like objects, and groups of people beyond this limit are likely to splinter off into subgroups over time.
如果你想知道为什么你不给你的小学同学写信，邓巴的数字是一个不错的假设——你太忙于与你直接社交圈中的人保持联系。
If you’ve ever wondered why you don’t write letters to your elementary school classmates, Dunbar’s number is a decent hypothesis—you’re too busy maintaining your ties to people who are in your immediate social circle.
关于认知范围限制起作用的实际连接数量存在一些争议（竞争性估计 Bernard-Killworth 中位数为 231），但毫无疑问存在这样的限制。当一场灾难袭击世界某个地方并影响数百万人时，我们可能会感到难过，但我们的感受不会是灾难影响到亲密朋友或家人时的感受的百万倍。联系越远，这种影响对我们个人的影响就越小。
There’s some controversy regarding the actual quantity of connections where Cognitive Scope Limitation kicks in (the Bernard-Killworth median, a competing estimate, is 231), but there’s little doubt that such a limit exists. When a disaster strikes somewhere around the world that affects millions of people, we may feel bad, but we don’t feel a million times what we would feel if that disaster affected a close friend or family member. The more remote the connection, the less such an impact affects us individually.
时代广场的游客并不邪恶——他们只是不知所措。每天有超过 380,000 人经过时代广场，5而我们的大脑无法同时处理那么多信息。在抽象的层面上，这些人仍然意识到你是一个人，但这个领域发生了太多事情，他们很难像对待一个人一样对待你。头脑不知所措，因此它开始简化现实以进行补偿。
The tourists in Times Square aren’t evil—they’re just overwhelmed. More than 380,000 people pass through Times Square every day,5 and our minds aren’t capable of handling that much information at once. On an abstract level, these people still realize that you’re a human being, but there’s so much going on in the area that it’s difficult for them to treat you like one. The mind gets overwhelmed, so it starts simplifying reality to compensate.
同样的事情也发生在大公司的高管身上。从理性上讲，他们可能意识到自己要对数十万员工和数百万股东负责，但无论他们多么聪明，他们的大脑都无法处理这一现实的重要性。结果，高管们可能会在不知不觉中伤害很多人。一家大公司的首席执行官可能不关心是否有数千名一线员工被解雇——在最高级别，很容易将“人力资源”视为电子表格上的数字，而不是个人。
The same thing happens to executives of large companies. Rationally, they may be aware that they’re responsible for hundreds of thousands of employees and millions of shareholders, but no matter how intelligent they are, their brains aren’t capable of processing the magnitude of that reality. As a result, executives can hurt a lot of people without even realizing it. The CEO of a large company may not care if thousands of frontline workers are laid off—at the highest levels, it’s easy to think of “human resources” as numbers on a spreadsheet, not individual human beings.
每当你看到一位高管做出愚蠢的决定，比如将有毒废物倒入数百万人饮用的河流中，或者在发放数百万美元奖金的同时裁员数千人，这可能不是因为他们烂到了核心。听起来很可怕，这可能是因为他们没有考虑太多——他们管理的范围和规模太复杂而无法处理，所以他们的大脑抽象地而不是本能地处理决策。
Whenever you see an executive making a boneheaded decision like dumping toxic waste into a river millions of people drink from, or downsizing thousands of jobs while handing out millions of dollars in bonuses, it’s probably not because they’re rotten to the core. As scary as it sounds, it’s probably because they haven’t thought too much about it—the scope and scale of what they’re managing is too complex to handle, so their mind processes the decision abstractly instead of viscerally.
个性化问题是破解这种普遍限制的一种方式。如果没有大脑升级，就不可能扩大我们大脑能够处理的信息范围。为了绕过这个限制，通过想象他们影响我们亲近的人来个性化决定和问题是有用的。
Personalizing an issue is a way to hack this universal limitation. In the absence of brain upgrades, it’s not possible to expand the scope of information our minds are capable of processing. In order to get around this limitation, it’s useful to personalize decisions and issues by imagining they affect someone close to us.
就愚蠢的高管而言，如果他们母亲的水被污染，或者他们的孩子的工作被取消，他们会对他们的决定感到非常不同。与其抽象地考虑问题，不如将其个性化，更容易从内心感受决策的影响，从而更容易做出更好的决策。
In the case of the boneheaded executive, they’d feel very different about their decision if their mother’s water was polluted, or their child’s job was eliminated. Instead of considering the issue abstractly, personalizing it makes it easier to feel the effects of the decision viscerally, which makes it easier to make better decisions.
在Green to Gold中，Daniel C. Esty 和 Andrew S. Winston 描述了几种使大型决策结果更容易内化的方法。“报纸规则”和“孙子规则”是使你的决定结果个性化的有效方法。“报纸规则”是对以下内容的模拟：假设您的决定在明天的纽约时报的头版上公布，并且您的父母和/或重要的其他人阅读了它。他们会怎么想？想象个人以这种方式评估你的决定的后果是一种更准确的评估短期决定影响的方法。
In Green to Gold, Daniel C. Esty and Andrew S. Winston describe several ways of making it easier to internalize the results of large decisions. The “newspaper rule” and the “grandchild rule” are effective ways of personalizing the results of your decisions. The “newspaper rule” is a simulation of the following: assume your decision was publicized on the front page of tomorrow’s New York Times, and your parents and/or significant other read it. What would they think? Imagining the personal consequences of your decisions in this way is a much more accurate way to evaluate the impact of short-term decisions.
“孙子规则”是一种评估具有长期后果的决策的方法。想象一下，三十或四十年后，您的孙子会就您的决定结果向您提供反馈。他们会称赞你的智慧还是斥责你的愚蠢？
The “grandchild rule” is a way of evaluating decisions with long-term consequences. Imagine that, thirty or forty years from now, your grandchild gives you feedback on the results of your decision. Will they laud you for your wisdom or reprimand you for your stupidity?
个性化您的决定和行动的结果，您将不太可能与认知范围限制发生冲突。
Personalize the results of your decisions and actions, and you’ll be far less likely to run afoul of Cognitive Scope Limitation.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/cognitive-scope-limitation/
协会
Association
一般来说，我们最不了解自己的大脑最擅长什么。
In general, we are least aware of what our minds do best.
—MARVIN MINSKY，认知科学家和人工智能研究员
—MARVIN MINSKY, COGNITIVE SCIENTIST AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RESEARCHER
谁在乎泰格伍兹使用的是哪种高尔夫球杆？谁在乎迈克尔乔丹穿哪双鞋？谁在乎 Taylor Swift 带的是哪个钱包？
Who cares which golf clubs Tiger Woods uses? Who cares which shoes Michael Jordan wears? Who cares which purse Taylor Swift is carrying?
你的心在乎。请记住，您的大脑一直在接收信息，并使用它来创建描述世界运作方式的模式。从理性上讲，这些事情可能无关紧要——您可能知道使用泰格伍兹使用的相同高尔夫球杆不会神奇地纠正您的残暴右曲球。然而，在购买高尔夫球杆时，您的注意力会被那些让您感觉良好的球杆所吸引，而且您很可能会发现 Tiger 使用的球杆非常有吸引力。
Your mind cares. Remember, your brain is taking in information all the time and is using it to create patterns that describe how the world works. Rationally, these things may not matter—you probably know that using the same golf clubs Tiger Woods uses won’t magically correct your atrocious slice. When it comes time to buy golf clubs, however, your mind will be drawn to the clubs that make you feel good, and more likely than not, you’ll find the clubs Tiger uses quite appealing.
人类大脑根据上下文存储信息，包括环境和相关性等线索。因为大脑是一个模式匹配机器，它试图弄清楚什么与什么相关联。结果，你的大脑形成了联想——即使是在逻辑上没有联系的事物之间。
The human mind stores information contextually, including cues like Environment and Correlation. Because the brain is a Pattern Matching machine, it’s trying to figure out what’s associated with what. As a result, your mind forms Associations—even between things that aren’t logically connected.
几十年来，可口可乐公司一直将可口可乐与一种情感联系在一起：幸福。在互联网上快速搜索可口可乐广告：您不会找到任何裁员或葬礼的图片。你会发现一连串的快乐时刻：阿德里安·布罗迪 (Adrien Brody) 开着他的车巡游，异想天开的生物游行庆祝一瓶可乐从自动售货机中取出，查理·布朗 (Charlie Brown) 赢得比赛梅西百货感恩节游行中的可乐瓶气球。甚至假期也不能幸免：该公司发明了圣诞老人的现代形象，他恰好拿着一瓶可口可乐。
For decades, the Coca-Cola Company has been associating Coke with a single emotion: happiness. Do a quick search for Coke commercials on the internet: you won’t find any images of layoffs or funerals. What you will find is a litany of happy moments: Adrien Brody cruising in his car, parades of whimsical creatures celebrating as a bottle of Coke exits a vending machine, and Charlie Brown winning the race for a runaway Coke-bottle balloon in the Macy’s Thanksgiving parade. Even holidays aren’t immune: the company invented the modern image of Santa Claus, who just so happened to be holding a bottle of Coca-Cola.
可以通过使用联想线索来影响行为，甚至是没有逻辑意义的联想。可口可乐的广告并不能使汽水消费者相信可口可乐在某些功能方面更好（“现在含糖量增加了 37%！ ”），但它们确实使人们一想到可口可乐就感觉良好。当一位顾客站在超市里决定购买哪种软饮料时，这些感受会对每位顾客的最终选择产生很大影响。
It’s possible to influence behavior by using associative cues, even Associations that make no logical sense. Coca-Cola’s advertisements don’t convince soda consumers that Coke is better in some functional respect (“Now with 37 percent more sugar!”), but they do make people feel good whenever they think about Coke. When a customer is standing in the supermarket deciding which soft drink to buy, those feelings make a big difference in each customer’s final choice.
考虑一下啤酒广告，这些广告通常以迷人的女性和自信的男性为特色。你的理性头脑知道喝某种啤酒不会让你更有吸引力或更自信，但关联是强大的——你的大脑无论如何都会产生关联。因此，啤酒广告会影响行为，即使没有人认真对待其中包含的图像。
Consider beer commercials, which usually feature attractive women and confident men. Your rational mind knows that drinking a certain type of beer won’t make you more attractive or confident, but Correlation is powerful—your brain will make the Association anyway. As a result, beer ads influence behavior, even though no one takes the images they contain seriously.
向潜在客户展示积极的联想可以影响他们对您提供的产品的看法。名人代言之所以有效，是因为它们与人们已经与代言人建立的强大关联联系在一起，这种关联会影响所代言的产品或服务。大家都知道詹姆斯·邦德是一个虚构的人物，但当丹尼尔·克雷格身着燕尾服出现在手表广告中时，“老练的国际间谍”的联想就转移到了手表上。
Presenting your prospects with positive Associations can influence how they think about what you offer. Celebrity endorsements work because they tie into strong Associations people already have with the endorsers, associations that rub off on the product or service being endorsed. Everyone knows James Bond is a fictional character, but when Daniel Craig is featured wearing a tuxedo in a watch advertisement, the “sophisticated international spy” Association is transferred to the timepiece.
培养正确的联想，潜在客户会更想要你拥有的。
Cultivate the right Associations, and potential customers will want what you have even more.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/association/
失神
Absence Blindness
事实不会因为被忽略而停止存在。
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
——奥尔道斯·赫胥黎，散文家和《美丽新世界》的作者
—ALDOUS HUXLEY, ESSAYIST AND AUTHOR OF BRAVE NEW WORLD
这是关于人类的一个奇怪事实：我们很难意识到有些东西不存在。
Here’s a curious fact about human beings: we have a hard time realizing that something isn’t there.
当我在 P&G 的家庭护理部门工作时，我的第一个项目是测试一种防止东西变脏的产品的可行性。您仍然需要清洁，但物品再次变脏需要更多时间，因此该产品为用户节省了大量时间和精力。
When I worked in P&G’s Home Care division, one of my first projects was testing the viability of a Product that prevented things from getting dirty. You still had to clean, but it took more time for things to get dirty again, so the Product saved the user significant time and effort.
然而，一旦该产品进入测试阶段，这个想法显然是行不通的。该产品有效，但用户没有意识到这一点——他们很难相信该产品做了一些事情，因为他们看不到任何事情发生。测试阶段完成后，该项目被取消。
Once the Product went into testing, however, it was apparent that the idea wasn’t feasible. The Product worked, but users didn’t realize it—they had a hard time believing the Product did something, since they couldn’t see anything happening. After the test phase was complete, the project was canceled.
缺席盲是一种认知偏差，它阻止我们识别我们无法观察到的东西。我们的感知能力进化到可以检测环境中存在的物体。人们要注意或识别缺失的东西要困难得多。
Absence Blindness is a cognitive bias that prevents us from identifying what we can’t observe. Our perceptual faculties evolved to detect objects that are present in the Environment. It’s far more difficult for people to notice or identify what’s missing.
失神的例子比比皆是。这是一个常见的例子：伟大的管理是无聊的——而且往往没有回报。有效管理者的标志是预测可能出现的问题并在它们成为问题之前提前解决它们。世界上一些最优秀的经理表现出一种安静的能力：几乎没有戏剧性，一切都在预算内按时完成。
Examples of Absence Blindness are everywhere. Here’s a common example: great Management is boring—and often unrewarding. The hallmark of an effective manager is anticipating likely issues and resolving them in advance, before they become a problem. Some of the best managers in the world exhibit a quiet sort of competence: there’s little drama, and everything gets done on time and under budget.
问题是，没有人看到这位伟大的经理会阻止的所有坏事。技能较低的经理更有可能获得奖励，因为每个人都可以看到他们“让事情发生”和“移动天地”来解决问题——这些问题可能是他们自己因管理不善而造成的。
The problem is, no one sees all of the bad things that the great manager prevents. Less skilled managers are more likely to be rewarded, since everyone can see them “making things happen” and “moving heaven and earth” to resolve issues—issues they may have created themselves via poor Management.
记下来提醒自己奖励那些不费吹灰之力就能完成工作的低调经理。他们的工作似乎并不特别困难，但他们离开后您会想念他们。
Make a note to remind yourself to reward the low-drama manager who gets things done with little fuss. It may not seem like their job is particularly difficult, but you’ll miss them when they’re gone.
缺席失明使预防被严重低估。就我正在开发的产品而言，人们很难相信他们看不到的东西是有效的。如果你试图推销某些东西的缺失或预防，你就是在打一场艰苦的战斗，即使你的产品很棒。通过关注用户可以体验的事物，始终以积极、直接、具体和具体的方式陈述好处。
Absence Blindness makes prevention grossly underappreciated. In the case of the Product I was working on, people had a hard time believing that something they couldn’t see working was effective. If you’re trying to sell the absence or prevention of something, you’re fighting an uphill battle, even if your Product is great. Always state benefits in positive, immediate, concrete, and specific terms by focusing on things the user can experience.
当坏事发生时，缺席盲也让人们感到不舒服“什么都不做”，即使什么都不做是最好的行动方案。通常，最好的做法是选择不采取行动，但这对人类来说可能很难接受。
Absence Blindness also makes it uncomfortable for people to “do nothing” when something bad happens, even if doing nothing is the best course of action. Often, the best course of action is to choose not to act, but that can be difficult for humans to accept.
大多数市场经历的经济“繁荣与萧条”周期部分是缺席盲目性的结果。根据 Ludwig von Mises in Human Action的说法，当政府试图通过降低利率来鼓励经济增长，从而更容易借钱时，就会产生经济“泡沫”。通过使获得资本更容易，该政策导致投资者进行投机，为他们原本会避免的资产支付异常高的价格，如郁金香、6没有收入的互联网公司、7和高风险的抵押贷款支持证券。8个最终，当投资者意识到他们一直在投机的资产不值他们支付的价格时，泡沫就会“破灭”，导致高估资产的价格突然暴跌。
The economic “boom and bust” cycle most markets experience is partially a consequence of Absence Blindness. According to Ludwig von Mises in Human Action, economic “bubbles” are created when a government tries to encourage an economy to grow by reducing interest rates, making it easier to borrow money. By making access to Capital easier, this policy leads investors to speculate, paying abnormally high prices for assets they’d otherwise avoid, like tulips,6 internet companies with no revenue,7 and risky mortgage-backed securities.8 Eventually, the bubble “pops” when investors realize that the assets they’ve been speculating on aren’t worth what they paid, leading to a sudden crash in the price of the overvalued asset.
由于损失厌恶，人们开始惊慌失措，并开始要求立即解决崩溃的市场。通常情况下，“解决方案”是进一步降低利率以鼓励经济再次开始增长——一个自我强化的反馈回路，它只会通过为更大的泡沫形成创造必要条件来加剧问题在路上。
Because of Loss Aversion, people start freaking out and start clamoring for an immediate solution to the collapsing market. More often than not, the “solution” is to reduce interest rates even more to encourage the economy to start growing again—a self-reinforcing Feedback Loop that does nothing but exacerbate the issue by creating the conditions necessary for an even larger bubble to form down the road.
要解决这个问题，最好的做法是停止操纵利率，这首先导致了这个问题。心不在焉会让什么都不做在心理上感到不舒服——毕竟，“我们不能坐在这里什么都不做，而世界却在燃烧！” 因此，人们通常更愿意政府采取行动，即使政府采取的行动从长远来看会使事情变得更糟。
To fix the issue, the best course of action is to stop manipulating interest rates, which caused the issue in the first place. Absence Blindness makes doing nothing psychologically uncomfortable—after all, “we can’t sit here and do nothing while the world burns!” As a result, people usually prefer the government to act, even if the action the government takes makes things worse in the long run.
经验更容易避免失神。经验之所以有价值，主要是因为专家拥有更大的相关模式心理数据库，因此更有可能注意到缺失。通过注意到违反预期模式的情况，有经验的人更有可能产生一种“奇怪的感觉”，即事情“不太对劲”，这通常足以警告在问题变得严重之前发现问题。
Experience makes it easier to avoid Absence Blindness. Experience is valuable primarily because the expert has a larger mental database of related patterns and thus a higher chance of noticing an absence. By noticing violations of expected patterns, experienced people are more likely to get an “odd feeling” that things “aren’t quite right,” which is often enough warning to find an issue before it becomes serious.
在《权力的来源：人们如何做出决定》一书中，研究员加里·克莱因 (Gary Klein) 讲述了一组消防员在一栋房子的一楼扑灭火灾的故事。当向火势底部喷水时，火势没有像预期的那样反应——它根本没有减弱。首领注意到并命令所有人离开——感觉有些不对劲。几分钟后，房子倒塌了——大火从地下室开始，摧毁了地基。如果团队留在里面，他们就会死。这就是经验的力量和好处。
In Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, researcher Gary Klein tells the story of a team of firefighters putting out a fire on the first floor of a house. When water was sprayed at the base of the fire, the fire didn’t respond as expected—it didn’t diminish at all. The chief noticed and ordered everyone out—something just didn’t feel right. A few minutes later, the house collapsed—the fire had started in the basement, destroying the foundation. If the team had stayed inside, they would have died. That’s the power and benefit of experience.
我发现克服缺席盲症的唯一可靠方法是使用清单。通过提前考虑您想要的东西看起来像什么并将可视化转化为您在做决定时可以参考的可见提醒，清单可以帮助您记住寻找当下缺乏品质的地方。（我们将在第 11 章详细讨论创建清单。）
The only reliable way I’ve found to overcome Absence Blindness is by using Checklists. By thinking in advance what you want something to look like and translating that Visualization into visible reminders you can refer to while making decisions, Checklists can help you remember to look for the absence of qualities in the moment. (We’ll discuss creating Checklists in great detail in chapter 11.)
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/absence-blindness/
对比
Contrast
世界上到处都是明显的事物，但没有人会偶然观察到。
The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any chance ever observes.
——亚瑟·柯南·道尔爵士，夏洛克·福尔摩斯系列小说的作者
—SIR ARTHUR CONAN DOYLE, AUTHOR OF THE SHERLOCK HOLMES BOOKS
如果您走进一家百货公司购买西装，您可能会注意到一些昂贵的选择。商店很少出售这些西装——这不是他们的目的。与 3,000 美元的西装相比，400 美元的西装似乎并不贵——即使在另一家商店可以花 200 美元购买同样的西装。
If you walk into a department store to buy a business suit, you’re likely to notice a few expensive options. The store will very rarely sell these suits—that’s not their purpose. Compared to a $3,000 suit, a $400 suit doesn’t seem expensive—even if the same suit could be purchased at another store for $200.
同样的原则也适用于销售人员展示产品的顺序。选择西装后，系统会引导您选择衬衫、鞋子和配饰。与 400 美元的西装相比，另外 100 美元的鞋子又算什么呢？一条腰带 80 美元？几件衬衫要 60 美元？几条领带 50 美元？一套袖扣要 40 美元？与西装相比，配饰显得物美价廉，何乐而不为呢？
The same principle applies to the order in which products are presented by the salesperson. After choosing a suit, you’ll be directed to shirts, shoes, and accessories. Compared to $400 for a suit, what’s another $100 on shoes? $80 for a belt? $60 for a few shirts? $50 for a few ties? $40 for a set of cuff links? Compared to the suit, the accessories seem inexpensive, so why not?
以下是我的一位客户 Jordan Smart 的报告：
Here’s what Jordan Smart, one of my clients, reported:
去年黑色星期五我去购物，想买一些稍微正式一点的衣服。. . 我出去的目的是买一套衬衫和两件西装外套。我想了想买领带来搭配它，然后决定我衣橱里已有的一两条就足够了。
I went shopping last year on Black Friday, looking to get some slightly more formal clothes . . . I went out with the intent of buying a set of shirts and two blazers. I thought for a while on buying ties to go with it, and decided that the one or two I had in my closet already would suffice.
我去两家商店购物。首先，我挑选了一套衬衫，在我离开时，售货员问我是否需要领带来搭配它们。我礼貌地告诉他不，并私下祝贺自己坚持了我的决定。
I went shopping at two stores. In the first, I picked out a set of shirts, and as I was leaving, the salesman asked if I needed ties to go with them. I politely told him no, and privately congratulated myself on sticking to my resolution.
在第二家商店，我试穿了几件西装外套并决定购买。再次，推销员问我是否需要领带来搭配我的西装外套。那时，我非常清楚地记得我在想西装外套的价格，心里想，“好吧，反正我也花了这么多钱，”然后买了一条领带。
At the second store, I tried on a few blazers and decided to purchase them. Again, the salesman asked if I needed ties to go with my blazers. At that point, I very clearly remember thinking about the price of the blazers and thinking to myself, “Well, I’m spending this much money anyway,” and proceeded to buy a set of ties.
在我了解对比度之前，我什么都没想。回头看看收据，我意识到我在领带上的花费比在西装外套上的花费还多。
I didn’t think anything of it until I learned about contrast. Looking back at the receipt, I realized I’d spent more on the ties than I had spent on the blazers.
我们的看法受到从周围环境收集的信息的影响。10,000 美元是很多钱吗？这取决于你的情况。如果您的银行账户中有 10 美元，那么 10,000 美元就是一笔巨款。如果你有 1 亿美元，这是一个舍入误差。
Our perceptions are influenced by information gathered from the surrounding environment. Is $10,000 a lot of money? It depends on your circumstances. If you have $10 in your bank account, $10,000 is an enormous sum. If you have $100 million, it’s a rounding error.
我们的感知能力被优化为注意到对比，而不是将我们感知到的事物与不存在的事物进行比较，这是失神的根源。我们注意到的每一件事和我们做出的每一个决定都是基于从周围环境中收集的信息。这就是伪装起作用的原因——它降低了物体与其周围环境之间的对比度，这使得它更难被注意到。
Our perceptual faculties are optimized to notice Contrast, not to compare what we perceive with things that aren’t there, which is the root of Absence Blindness. Everything we notice and every decision we make is based on information gathered from the surrounding Environment. That’s why camouflage works—it reduces the contrast between an object and its surrounding Environment, which makes it harder to notice.
对比经常被用来影响购买决定。在商业世界中，对比经常被用作定价的伪装。对于 60 美元的衬衫，可能可以在另一家零售商处以 40 美元的价格购买完全相同的衬衫，但比较便宜的衬衫不在进行比较的商店中。礼物是400 美元的套装，这使得 60 美元的衬衫看起来很划算。
Contrast is often used to influence buying decisions. In the business world, Contrast is often used as pricing camouflage. In the case of the $60 shirt, it may be possible to buy the exact same shirt at another retailer for $40, but the less expensive shirt isn’t present in the store where the comparison is taking place. What is present is the $400 suit, which makes the $60 shirt look like a bargain.
与 2,000 美元的电脑相比，300 美元的延长保修期似乎并不昂贵，尽管它使总购买价格增加了 15%。与 30,000 美元的汽车相比，花 1,000 美元买真皮座椅感觉很划算。与买一套40万的房子相比，花2万改造厨房感觉没什么大不了的。
Compared with a $2,000 computer, a $300 extended warranty appears inexpensive, even though it increases the total purchase price by 15 percent. Compared with a $30,000 vehicle, spending $1,000 for leather seats feels like a bargain. Compared with buying a $400,000 house, spending $20,000 to remodel the kitchen feels like no big deal.
取景是一种控制对比度感知的方法。例如，在营销我的商业课程时，我经常使用“比顶级商业课程少 149,000 美元”这样的短语。与买书相比，我的课程显得昂贵；与 MBA 课程的费用相比，这是很划算的。
Framing is a way to control the perception of Contrast. For example, I often use the phrase “$149,000 less than a top-tier business program” when marketing my business courses. Compared with buying a book, my course looks expensive; compared with the cost of an MBA program, it’s a bargain.
在展示您的报价时利用对比，您将增加潜在客户对您的报价有好感的几率。
Take advantage of Contrast when presenting your offer, and you’ll increase the odds that your potential customers will view your offer favorably.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/contrast/
缺乏
Scarcity
爱任何事物的方法就是意识到它可能会丢失。
The way to love anything is to realize it might be lost.
——GK CHESTERTON，散文家
—G. K. CHESTERTON, ESSAYIST
由于能量守恒定律，除非有令人信服的立即行动的理由，否则人们自然倾向于决定“稍后再做”。作为一个商人，“以后”是个大问题，因为如果客户忘记了你，“以后”就变成了“从不”。您如何鼓励您的客户立即采取行动？
Because of Conservation of Energy, people have a natural tendency to decide to “do things later” unless there’s a compelling reason to act immediately. As a businessperson, “later” is a big issue, because “later” turns into “never” if the customer forgets about you. How can you encourage your customers to act immediately?
稀缺性鼓励人们迅速做出决定。稀缺性是克服我们节约倾向的因素之一——如果你想要稀缺的东西，你就不能在没有失去你想要的东西的风险下等待。损失厌恶确保这种可能性足以促使我们立即采取行动。
Scarcity encourages people to make decisions quickly. Scarcity is one of the things that overcomes our tendency to conserve—if you want something that’s scarce, you can’t afford to wait without the risk of losing what you want. Loss Aversion ensures that this possibility feels bad enough to prompt us to take action now.
因此，在您的报价中添加稀缺元素是鼓励人们采取行动的好方法。稀缺让人们明白，如果他们等待，他们就会失去一些有价值的东西，如果他们想要得到的东西，他们更有可能选择采取行动。
As a result, adding a Scarcity element to your offer is a great way to encourage people to take action. Scarcity makes people understand that they’ll lose something valuable if they wait, making it more likely they’ll choose to act if they desire what is being offered.
价值越稀缺，欲望就越强烈。1996 年，Tickle Me Elmo 娃娃是圣诞节的热门玩具。Elmo 已经是一个受欢迎的电视角色，但玩具的数量有限让父母们陷入了购买狂潮。否则，理性的人会在新货上市时开始涌入零售商，并愿意花费数百（有时数千）美元购买零售价为 28.99 美元的玩具。
The more scarce the value, the more intense the desire. In 1996, the Tickle Me Elmo doll was the hot toy of the Christmas season. Elmo was already a popular television character, but limited quantities of the toy drove parents into a buying frenzy. Otherwise rational people started mobbing retailers when new stock became available and were willing to spend hundreds (sometimes thousands) of dollars for a toy that cost $28.99 retail.
您可以通过以下几种方式将稀缺性元素添加到您的报价中：
Here are a few ways you can add an element of Scarcity to your offer:
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数量有限——告知潜在客户您提供的待售单位数量有限。
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Limited quantities—inform prospects that you’re offering a limited number of units for sale.
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价格上涨——告知潜在客户价格将在不久的将来上涨。
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Price increases—inform prospects that the price will go up in the near future.
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降价——告知潜在客户当前的折扣将在不久的将来结束。
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Price decreases—inform prospects that a current discount will end in the near future.
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截止日期——告知潜在客户该报价仅在有限的时间内有效。
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Deadlines—inform prospects that the offer is only good for a limited period of time.
看似人为的稀缺可能会适得其反。例如，人为地限制电子书、可下载软件或电子音乐文件的销售是没有意义的——每个人都知道电子文件可以以接近零的成本进行复制，所以稀缺性给人一种操纵的感觉，这会让人们想从你那里购买较少的。另一方面，在截止日期前提价往往效果很好——在一定数量的订单或一定时间后提价是一项合理的政策，并且不太可能让客户认为是不合理的或操纵性的。
Scarcity that appears artificial can backfire. For example, putting an artificial limit on sales of ebooks, downloadable software, or electronic music files makes no sense—everyone knows electronic files can be Duplicated at close to zero cost, so the Scarcity feels manipulative, which makes people want to buy from you less. Price increases with deadlines, on the other hand, tend to work well—raising the price after a certain number of orders or a certain amount of time is a reasonable policy and is less likely to come across to the customer as unreasonable or manipulative.
在您的报价中添加稀缺元素，您将鼓励人们现在购买而不是“以后”购买。
Add an element of Scarcity to your offer and you’ll encourage people to buy now instead of “later.”
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/scarcity/
新奇
Novelty
为什么当我要一双手时，却附上了大脑？
Why is it that when I ask for a pair of hands, a brain comes attached?
—HENRY FORD，福特汽车公司创始人和装配线先驱
—HENRY FORD, FOUNDER OF THE FORD MOTOR COMPANY AND ASSEMBLY-LINE PIONEER
在第二次世界大战最激烈的时候，诺曼·麦克沃斯 (Norman Mackworth) 让皇家空军的雷达操作员离开他们的工作岗位去执行一项特殊任务：一次盯着时钟看两个小时。
At the height of World War II, Norman Mackworth took Royal Air Force radar operators away from their jobs for a special mission: staring at a clock for two hours at a time.
Mackworth 是一位心理学家，专门研究警惕性——长时间保持对单个物体的高度注意力的能力。雷达操作员是天生的测试对象——他们的工作包括在黑暗的房间里连续几个小时观察雷达屏幕上的光点。
Mackworth was a psychologist who specialized in studies of vigilance—the ability to maintain high levels of Attention on a single object for long periods of time. Radar operators were natural test subjects—their job consisted of looking at blips on a radar screen in a dark room for hours on end.
大多数时候，雷达屏幕上的变化很小。然而，当屏幕上出现异常情况时，可能是紧急情况：正在执行轰炸任务的敌机飞来。雷达操作员的工作是保持足够的警觉，以立即发现异常情况，但这项任务很困难——无聊往往会导致导致生命损失的错误。
Most of the time, very little on the radar screen changed. When something abnormal appeared on the screen, however, it could be an emergency: inbound enemy airplanes on a bombing mission. The radar operator’s job was to be alert enough to notice anomalies immediately, but the task was difficult—boredom often led to mistakes that cost lives.
为了模拟这种具有挑战性的环境，Mackworth 创造了“Mackworth Clock”，这是一种旨在测试人们随着时间的推移注意力的好坏程度的设备。“时钟”的特点是秒针的工作方式与普通时钟上的秒针一样，但有一个扭曲——它会随机跳过一秒钟，滴答作响，而不是一个刻度。测试对象的工作是每次他们注意到跳过时按下一个按钮。
To simulate this challenging environment, Mackworth created the “Mackworth Clock,” a device designed to test how well people pay attention over time. The “clock” featured a second hand that worked like the one on a normal clock, with a twist—it would randomly skip a second, ticking two notches instead of one. The test subject’s job was to press a button every time they noticed the skip.
这是麦克沃斯的发现：在盯着时钟十分钟之后，受试者的注意力质量下降了——下降了很多。即使是积极进取的操作员（他们因表现而获得可观的奖金）也能够持续持续关注的最长时间为 30 分钟——再长，他们就会走神。
Here’s what Mackworth found: after ten minutes of staring at the clock, the quality of the subject’s attention went down—way down. The maximum period of sustained attention even highly motivated operators (who were given substantial bonuses for performance) were able to sustain was thirty minutes—any longer and they’d zone out.
如果你想在很长一段时间内吸引并保持注意力，新颖性——新感官数据的存在——是至关重要的。人们一次可以专注于玩游戏或上网几个小时的原因之一是新奇——每一个新的病毒视频、博客文章、社交媒体更新和新闻报道都会重新吸引我们的注意力。
Novelty—the presence of new sensory data—is critical if you want to attract and maintain attention over a long period of time. One of the reasons people can focus on playing games or surfing the internet for hours at a time is novelty—every new viral video, blog post, social-media update, and news report reengages our ability to pay attention.
在Brain Rules中，John Medina 分享了他如何能够在持续一个多小时的课堂上保持学生的注意力：他以不超过十分钟的模块来计划他的课堂。每个模块都以一个Hook开头——一个有趣的故事或轶事，然后是对关键概念的简要解释。遵循这种格式可确保他的听众保留更多信息并且不会走神。（这就是本书以短小的部分组织起来的主要原因，阅读起来不到十分钟。）
In Brain Rules, John Medina shares how he’s able to keep the attention of his students in classes that last more than an hour: he plans his class in modules that last no more than ten minutes. Each module starts with a Hook—an interesting story or anecdote, followed by a brief explanation of the key concept. Following this format ensures that his audience retains more information and doesn’t zone out. (That’s the primary reason this book is organized in short sections that take less than ten minutes to read.)
随着时间的推移，即使是最引人注目的对象也会变得乏味。人类的注意力需要新颖性来维持。继续提供新的东西，人们会注意你提供的东西。
Even the most remarkable object of attention gets boring over time. Human attention requires novelty to sustain itself. Continue to offer something new, and people will pay attention to what you have to offer.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/novelty/
7
7
与自己一起工作
WORKING WITH YOURSELF
思考很容易。行动是困难的。做自己想做的事是最难的。
To think is easy. To act is difficult. To act as one thinks is the most difficult.
——约翰·沃尔夫冈·冯·歌德，诗人、戏剧家和博学者
—JOHANN WOLFGANG VON GOETHE, POET, DRAMATIST, AND POLYMATH
你的身体和思想是你用来完成事情的工具。学习如何以高效和有效的方式与自己合作，可以让您更轻松、更愉快地完成您设定的目标。
Your body and mind are the tools you use to get things done. Learning how to work with yourself in an efficient and effective way makes accomplishing what you set out to achieve easier and more enjoyable.
在当今繁忙的商业环境中，很容易对需要完成的每一件事感到压力。学习如何以高效和有效的方式工作可能是充实的职业和令人筋疲力尽的职业之间的区别。
In today’s busy business environment, it’s easy to get stressed about everything that needs to be done. Learning how to work in an efficient and effective way can be the difference between a fulfilling career and a draining one.
在本章中，我们将讨论如何决定做什么、设定和实现目标、跟踪您的日常任务、克服阻力以及如何在不精疲力尽的情况下完成更有成效的工作。
In this chapter, we’ll discuss how to decide what to do, set and achieve goals, track your daily tasks, overcome resistance, and get more productive work done without burning out.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/working-with-yourself/
阿克拉西亚
Akrasia
一些最伟大的战斗将在你自己灵魂的寂静房间内进行。
Some of the greatest battles will be fought within the silent chambers of your own soul.
—EZRA TAFT BENSON，美国前农业部长
—EZRA TAFT BENSON, FORMER US SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
在他最著名的单口喜剧节目之一中，杰里·宋飞描述了他上床睡觉的困难：
In one of his most famous stand-up comedy routines, Jerry Seinfeld describes his difficulties going to bed:
我总是睡不够。我晚上熬夜，因为我是守夜人。. . “睡五个小时后起床怎么样？” 哦，那是 Morning Guy 的问题。. . 那不是我的问题，我是 Night Guy。. . 守夜人总是搞砸早安人。Morning Guy 无能为力。
I never get enough sleep. I stay up late at night, ’cause I’m Night Guy . . . “What about getting up after five hours’ sleep?” Oh, that’s Morning Guy’s problem . . . that’s not my problem, I’m Night Guy . . . Night Guy always screws Morning Guy. There’s nothing Morning Guy can do.
套路很有趣，因为它太熟悉了。我们所有人都有过这样的经历，知道或感觉我们应该做某事或某项行动符合我们的最佳利益。. . 但我们不这样做。这种体验的术语是Akrasia（发音为“ah-KRAH-see-ah”）。
The routine is funny because it’s so familiar. All of us have had the experience of knowing or feeling that we should do something or that an action would be in our best interest . . . but we don’t do it. The term for that experience is Akrasia (pronounced “ah-KRAH-see-ah”).
Akrasia 和拖延症是相关的，但它们不是一回事。拖延发生在你决定完成一项任务但你一直把它推迟到以后而不决定以后再做。如果您的待办事项列表中有“回复电子邮件”，但您浏览互联网数小时却没有回复任何电子邮件，这就是拖延。
Akrasia and procrastination are related, but they’re not the same thing. Procrastination occurs when you’ve decided to complete a task but you keep putting it off until later without deciding to do it later. If you have “answer email” on your to-do list, but you browse the internet for hours without answering any email, that’s procrastination.
Akrasia 是一个更深层次的问题：它是一种普遍的感觉，你“应该”做某事，但不一定要决定去做。“应该”的感觉不会导致决定或行动，即使该行动似乎最符合您的利益。大多数人在考虑改变他们不再想要的习惯（“我应该戒烟”）、采取新行动（“我应该向那个非营利组织捐款”）或考虑一个不舒服的话题（“我应该研究人寿保险和与律师交谈以写遗嘱”）。“应该”的感觉一直存在，但永远不会导致行动，从而产生强烈的挫败感。
Akrasia is a deeper issue: it’s a general feeling that you “should” do something, without necessarily deciding to do it. The “should” feeling doesn’t lead to decision or action, even if the action seems to be in your best interest. Most people experience Akrasia when considering changing Habits they no longer want (“I should quit smoking”), taking a new action (“I should donate to that nonprofit”), or contemplating an uncomfortable topic (“I should look into life insurance and talk to a lawyer to write a will”). The “should” feeling sticks around, but never leads to action, generating intense frustration.
Akrasia 是一个非常古老的问题：关于 Akrasia 来源的讨论可以追溯到苏格拉底、柏拉图和亚里士多德。这个词来自希腊语ακρασἱα，意思是“缺乏命令（对自己）”。苏格拉底和柏拉图认为 Akrasia 是一种道德缺陷，而亚里士多德则认为它源于对一个人“应该”做什么的错误看法。尽管几个世纪以来哲学家们一直在争论这个话题，但他们还没有找到治愈的方法。
Akrasia is a very old problem: discussions about the source of Akrasia go back to Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle. The term comes from the Greek ακρασἱα, which means “lacking command (over oneself).” Socrates and Plato believed that Akrasia was a moral defect, while Aristotle argued that it stems from a mistaken opinion about what a person “should” do. Even though philosophers have been debating the topic for centuries, they haven’t discovered a cure.
Akrasia 是完成工作最普遍和最持久的障碍之一。为了花时间取得进步，而不是在意志之战中与双方作战，当你看到 Akrasia 时，制定一个识别和打击 Akrasia 的策略是很有用的。
Akrasia is one of the most widespread and persistent barriers to getting things done. In order to spend your time making progress, instead of fighting both sides in a battle of wills, it’s useful to have a strategy for recognizing and combating Akrasia when you see it.
根据我的经验，Akrasia 有四个一般部分：任务、愿望、“应该”和抵抗的情感体验。在这个框架内，可能有许多潜在的阻力来源：
In my experience, Akrasia has four general parts: a task, a desire, a “should,” and an emotional experience of resistance. Within this framework, there can be many potential sources of resistance:
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你无法定义你想要什么。
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You can’t define what you want.
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你相信这项任务会让你更接近你不想要的东西。
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You believe the task will bring you closer to something you don’t want.
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你无法弄清楚你将如何从你现在所在的地方到达你想去的地方。
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You can’t figure out how you’re going to get from where you are right now to where you want to be.
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您将期望的最终结果理想化，以至于您的大脑估计实现的可能性很低，从而导致损失厌恶。
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You idealize the desired End Result to the point that your mind estimates a low probability of achievement, resulting in Loss Aversion.
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“应该”是由其他人而不是您建立的，这会引发说服阻力。
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The “should” was established by someone else, not you, prompting Persuasion Resistance.
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当前环境中的竞争行动承诺立即满足，而相关任务的回报将在很久以后出现。（心理学家称之为“双曲线贴现”。）
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A competing action in the current Environment promises immediate gratification, while the reward of the task in question will come much later. (Psychologists call this “hyperbolic discounting.”)
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该行动的好处是抽象和遥远的，而其他可能的行动将提供具体和直接的好处。（心理学家称之为“解释水平理论”或“近/远”思维。）
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The benefits of the action are abstract and distant, while other possible actions will provide concrete and immediate benefits. (Psychologists call this “construal level theory” or “near/far” thinking.)
Akratic 情况可以有多种形式：吃饼干与坚持节食“变得更健康”。浏览网页与锻炼。保持糟糕的关系与继续前进。梦想一个新的商业理念与测试它。每当你“应该”做某事，但拒绝去做时，你就是在经历 Akrasia。
Akratic situations can take many forms: eating a cookie versus “becoming healthier” by sticking to a diet. Browsing the web versus exercising. Staying in a bad relationship versus moving on. Dreaming about a new business idea versus testing it. Whenever you “should” do something, but resist doing it, you’re experiencing Akrasia.
Akrasia 是一个棘手的问题，没有简单、通用的解决方案。也就是说，有许多策略和技术可用于预防和解决不合时宜的情况。我们将在本章中讨论它们。
Akrasia is a slippery problem, and there’s no easy, universal solution. That said, there are many strategies and techniques that are useful in preventing and resolving akratic situations. We’ll discuss them in this chapter.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/akrasia/
唯心主义
Monoidealism
去做就对了。
Just do it.
——NIKE 品牌口号
—NIKE BRAND SLOGAN
当我们试图“富有成效”时，我们在努力做什么？
When we’re trying to “be productive,” what are we trying to do?
理想情况下，您希望一次将全部精力和注意力集中在一个主题上。
Ideally, you want to focus the full powers of your energy and Attention on a single subject at a time.
单一理想主义是将你的精力和注意力只集中在一件事上，没有冲突的状态。单一理想主义通常被称为“心流”状态，这是心理学家 Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi 创造的一个术语。这是人类注意力最有成效的状态：清晰、集中的注意力和精力在很长一段时间内指向一个（而且只有一个）主题。
Monoidealism is the state of focusing your energy and attention on only one thing, without conflicts. Monoidealism is often called a “flow” state, a term coined by psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi. This is the state of human attention at its most productive: clear, focused Attention and effort directed at one (and only one) subject for an extended period of time.
我的朋友 PJ Eby 是一名前计算机程序员，专门帮助人们以更高效的方式使用他们的思想。他是这样定义单一理想主义的：
My friend P. J. Eby is a former computer programmer who specializes in helping people use their minds in a more productive way. Here’s how he defines Monoidealism:
当有人说“只管去做”时，他们试图传达的信息是您不应该做任何其他事情。最好将其表述为：“去做吧，不去想任何事情，甚至不去想你正在做的事情。事实上，甚至不要去做，只是看着自己去做，但实际上不要尝试做任何事情。”
When somebody says “just do it,” they are trying to communicate that you should not do anything else. It might better be phrased as, “Do it, without thinking about anything, not even about what you’re doing. In fact, don’t even do it, just watch yourself doing it, but don’t actually try to do anything.”
正确地说，“单一理想主义”只是一种状态，在这种状态下，你的脑海里只有一件事，没有冲突。这是一种导致一个人自然地采取与思想相关的行动的条件，而不是一种技术本身。. . 特定[生产力]技术对特定个人的有用性在很大程度上取决于它是否解决了他们实现单一理想状态的特定障碍。
Properly, “monoidealism” is simply the state in which you have exactly one thing on your mind, with no conflicts. It’s a condition that results in one naturally taking action in relation to the thought, rather than a technique in and of itself . . . The usefulness of a particular [productivity] technique for a particular individual will largely depend on whether it addresses their particular stumbling blocks in achieving a monoideal state.
当你“只是在做”时，你就处于“心流”——一种单一理想状态。没有分心，没有打扰，没有自我判断，没有疑惑。当你的头脑处于 100% 的“做”模式时，你会完成很多事情。
When you’re “just doing it,” you’re in “flow”—a Monoideal state. There are no distractions, no interruptions, no self-judgments, no doubts. When your mind is in 100 percent “do” mode, you get a lot done.
那么如何让自己进入 Monoideal 状态呢？
So how do you get yourself into a Monoideal state?
首先，消除潜在的干扰和干扰。根据完成工作所需的认知活动水平，您需要 10 到 30 分钟才能全神贯注于正在做的事情。电话、同事“顺道拜访你”以及其他对你注意力的意外需求都会打破你的单一理想状态，因此第一要务是确保你不会分心。我经常使用耳塞或播放器乐来消除背景噪音，并在不想被打扰时断开电话。
First, eliminate potential distractions and interruptions. Depending on the level of cognitive activity required to complete your work, it’ll take ten to thirty minutes before your mind becomes absorbed in what you’re doing. Phone calls, coworkers “dropping by to pick your brain,” and other unanticipated demands on your Attention will break your Monoideal state, so priority number one is ensuring that you don’t get distracted. I often use earplugs or play instrumental music to eliminate background noise, and disconnect the phone when I don’t want to be interrupted.
在我写作时关闭我的互联网连接也让我更容易保持单一理想状态。1否则，当事情变得艰难时，我很可能会浏览网页。使用类似的引导结构技术是防止注意力分散的好方法。
Turning off my internet connection while I’m writing also makes it much easier for me to maintain a Monoideal state.1 Otherwise, I’m way too likely to browse the web when the going gets tough. Using similar Guiding Structure techniques is a good way to prevent your Attention from straying.
第二，消除内心的矛盾。有时很难开始，因为您在脑海中遇到两个感知控制系统之间的冲突。在开始工作之前消除这些冲突有助于您比其他方式更快地达到单一理想状态。如果您对开始工作感到抗拒，那么在继续工作之前花一些时间和精力更深入地探索该冲突是很有用的。
Second, eliminate inner Conflicts. Sometimes it’s difficult to get started because you’re experiencing a Conflict between two Perceptual Control systems in your mind. Eliminating these Conflicts before you start working helps you achieve a Monoideal state faster than you would’ve otherwise. If you feel resistance to getting started, it’s useful to spend some time and energy exploring that Conflict more deeply before you keep working.
在写这本书的过程中，我经历了几次令人沮丧的反抗。与其试图忽略阻力或克服阻力，不如使用心理模拟和重新解释探索阻力帮助我发现了一个隐藏的冲突：我对自己的工作结果不满意，做更多不起作用的事情会浪费。花一些时间修改本书的结构解决了冲突，同时使本书变得更好并消除了阻力的来源。
While writing this book, I experienced several periods of frustrating resistance. Instead of trying to ignore the resistance or push through it, exploring that resistance using Mental Simulation and Reinterpretation helped me uncover a hidden Conflict: I wasn’t happy with how my work was turning out, and doing more of what wasn’t working would be a waste. Spending some time revising the structure of the book resolved that Conflict, simultaneously making the book better and eliminating the source of the resistance.
第三，通过“冲刺”来启动注意力集中过程。由于进入状态可能需要 10 到 30 分钟，因此留出 10 到 30 分钟来快速集中精力工作可以更容易快速进入状态。如果在冲刺结束时您的工作效率不高，您有权停下来做其他事情。这种情况很少见：一旦开始，就很容易继续下去。
Third, kick-start the attention-focusing process by doing a “dash.” Since it can take ten to thirty minutes to get into the zone, setting aside ten to thirty minutes for a quick burst of focused work can make it much easier to get into the zone quickly. If you’re not productive by the time the dash is over, you have permission to stop and do something else. That’s rarely the case: once you get started, it’s easy to keep going.
我经常使用的一种技术称为番茄工作法，它的创建者 Francesco Cirillo 以那些形状像番茄的有趣小厨房计时器（意大利语为pomodoro ）命名。以下是该技术的工作原理：将厨房定时器设置为 25 分钟。你的工作是在整个过程中专注于一项任务——如果你卡住了，就继续专注，直到计时器响起。二十五分钟的工作时间结束后，你可以休息五分钟，使总时长减半一个小时——我们任何人都可以随处安排的时间段。
One technique I often use is called the Pomodoro Technique,2 named by its creator, Francesco Cirillo, after those funny little kitchen timers shaped like a tomato (pomodoro in Italian). Here’s how the technique works: Set a kitchen timer for twenty-five minutes. Your job is to focus on a single task for the entire duration—if you get stuck, just keep focusing until the timer goes off. After the twenty-five-minute work period is over, you can take a five-minute break, bringing the total duration to half an hour—a block of time any of us can fit into our schedule here and there.
我喜欢番茄工作法的一点是它同时实现了两个目标：它让开始变得容易，并且允许你忽略干扰。即使您对需要做的事情并不感到兴奋，对自己说“只有二十五分钟了”也是克服开始时的阻力的好方法。番茄工作法也是一个忽略干扰的好借口：如果电话响了，提醒自己“一个番茄钟是不可分割的”是允许自己忽略它的有效方法，保持你的单一理想状态。
What I love about the Pomodoro Technique is that it accomplishes two goals at once: it makes it easy to get started, and it gives you permission to ignore distractions. Even if you’re not excited about what you need to do, saying to yourself “it’s only twenty-five minutes” is a great way to overcome the initial resistance to getting started. The Pomodoro Technique is also a good excuse to ignore distractions: if the phone rings, reminding yourself that “a Pomodoro is indivisible” is an effective way to give yourself permission to ignore it, maintaining your Monoideal state.
如果你在开始冲刺之前消除了干扰和冲突，你将在工作期间的几分钟内过渡到 Monoideal 状态。
If you eliminate distractions and Conflicts before you start your dash, you’ll transition into a Monoideal state a few minutes into the work period.
冥想是一种单一理想主义的“阻力训练”。简单的冥想，例如专注于您的呼吸，然后在您的注意力分散时将您的注意力转移到您的呼吸上，这是一种练习在分心时保持注意力的技巧的方法。每天只需十分钟的简单冥想就可以提高您的专注力。
Meditation is a form of Monoidealism “resistance training.” Simple meditations like focusing on your breathing, then bringing your focus back to your breath if and when your Attention strays is a way to practice the skills used to maintain your Attention in the face of distractions. As little as ten minutes of simple meditation every day can improve your ability to focus.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/monoidealism/
认知转换惩罚
Cognitive Switching Penalty
控制你的思想，否则它会控制你。
Rule your mind or it will rule you.
——贺拉斯，公元前一世纪的罗马诗人
—HORACE, FIRST-CENTURY-BCE ROMAN POET
您决定从事的每个项目和每项任务都需要一定的注意力、精力和专注力才能完成。问题是：您如何才能高效且有效地完成所有需要做的事情？
Every project and every task that you decide to work on takes a certain amount of Attention, energy, and focus to get done. The question is: How can you accomplish everything you need to do in an efficient and effective way?
许多人依赖多任务处理：尝试同时做不止一件事。虽然人们认为这会使他们更有效率，但单一理想主义和多任务处理是完全相反的。从神经学上讲，您的大脑不可能同时处理多项任务。当你试图一次做不止一件事时，你就不是在并行处理——你是在快速地将你的注意力从一件事切换到另一件事。当您关注任务 A 时，您会忽略任务 B，直到您切换回它。
Many people rely on multitasking: trying to do more than one thing at the same time. While people assume this makes them more efficient, Monoidealism and multitasking are complete opposites. Neurologically, it’s impossible for your brain to multitask. When you’re trying to do more than one thing at a time, you’re not parallel processing—you’re rapidly switching your Attention from one thing to another. While you’re paying attention to Task A, you’re ignoring Task B until you switch back to it.
因此，高效的多任务处理是一个神话。根据最近的几项神经学研究3，您在任何给定时间尝试关注的任务越多，您在所有这些任务中的表现就越差。这就是为什么在开车时用手机通话从来都不是一个好主意——试图同时专注于两件事，你的反应时间会缩短到与酒后驾车的人相同的水平。4个
As a result, productive multitasking is a myth. According to several recent neurological studies,3 the more tasks you try to pay attention to at any given time, the more your performance at all of them suffers. That’s why it’s never a good idea to talk on a mobile phone while driving—by trying to focus on two things at once, you decrease your reaction times to the same level as someone who’s driving while intoxicated.4
每次将注意力从一个主题切换到另一个主题时，都会招致认知切换惩罚。为了采取行动，您的大脑必须将您正在做的事情的背景“加载”到工作记忆中。如果你改变注意力的焦点，你就会迫使你的大脑花费时间和精力一遍又一遍地颠簸、加载和重新加载上下文。这就是为什么你可能会花一整天的时间同时处理多项任务，但什么也没做，最后却感到筋疲力尽——你已经消耗掉了所有的能量——上下文切换而不是取得进展。
Every time you switch the focus of your Attention from one subject to another, you incur the Cognitive Switching Penalty. In order to take action, your brain has to “load” the context of what you’re doing into working memory. If you switch the focus of your Attention, you’re forcing your brain to spend time and effort thrashing, loading and reloading contexts over and over again. That’s why it’s possible to spend an entire day multitasking, get nothing done, and feel exhausted at the end—you’ve burned all of your energy context-switching instead of making progress.
认知转换惩罚是一种摩擦成本：转换越少，成本越低。这就是单一理想主义如此高效的原因——通过一次只将注意力集中在一件事上，您允许大脑将上下文加载到工作记忆中一次，这意味着您可以将精力集中在完成手头的任务上。
The Cognitive Switching Penalty is a Friction cost: the less you switch, the lower the cost. That’s why Monoidealism is so efficient—by focusing your Attention on only one thing at a time, you’re allowing your brain to load the context into working memory once, which means you can focus your energy on accomplishing the task at hand.
为避免无效的上下文切换，最好采用批处理策略。消除分心有助于防止不必要的打扰，但即使您有一整天的空闲时间，也完全有可能浪费精力。避免不必要的认知转换的最佳方法是将相似的任务组合在一起。
To avoid unproductive context switching, a batching strategy is best. Eliminating distractions can help prevent unnecessary interruptions, but it’s entirely possible to waste energy thrashing even if you have the entire day free. The best approach to avoid unnecessary cognitive switching is to group similar tasks together.
例如，我发现很难在客户呼叫之间的创造性任务（如写作或拍摄培训视频）上取得进展。我没有试图同时兼顾这两个职责，而是将它们分批处理。我通常在早上专注于写作几个小时不被打扰，然后在下午分批处理我的电话和会议。因此，我可以全神贯注地专注于这两项职责。
For example, I find it difficult to make progress on creative tasks (like writing or shooting training videos) between client calls. Instead of attempting to juggle both responsibilities at the same time, I batch them together. I usually focus on writing for a few uninterrupted hours in the morning, then batch my calls and meetings in the afternoon. As a result, I can focus on both responsibilities with my full Attention.
我在做家务、更新财务报告或跑腿时使用类似的策略：我会花一段不受打扰的时间来完成这些任务。结果，我在很短的时间内完成了我需要做的一切。
I use a similar strategy when doing chores, updating financial reports, or running errands: I’ll dedicate a block of uninterupted hours to finishing those tasks. As a result, I accomplish everything I need to do in very little time.
风险投资家、程序员和散文家 Paul Graham 将这种分批策略称为“制造者的计划/经理的计划”。5如果你是试图创造一些东西，你能做的最糟糕的事情就是试图在管理任务之间安排创造性任务——上下文切换会降低你的生产力。“Maker's Schedule”由大块不间断的时间组成；“Manager's Schedule”被分成许多小块用于会议。两种时间表都有不同的用途——如果您的目标是完成有用的工作，请不要试图将它们结合起来。
Paul Graham, a venture capitalist, programmer, and essayist, calls this batching strategy “Maker’s Schedule/Manager’s Schedule.”5 If you’re trying to create something, the worst thing you can do is to try to fit creative tasks in between administrative tasks—context switching will kill your productivity. The “Maker’s Schedule” consists of large blocks of uninterrupted time; the “Manager’s Schedule” is broken up into many small chunks for meetings. Both schedules serve different purposes—don’t try to combine them if your goal is to get useful work done.
我用来计划一天的一个简单经验法则是 3-10-20 方法：在一天内，我有能力完成三项主要任务和十项次要任务。一项主要任务是任何需要集中注意力二十分钟以上的活动；所有其他任务都是次要的。如果一个主要任务被打断，重新启动它算作一个新任务。
A simple rule of thumb I use to plan my day is the 3-10-20 method: in one day, I have the capacity to finish three major tasks and ten minor tasks. A major task is any activity that requires more than twenty minutes of focused concentration; all other tasks are minor. If a major task is interrupted, restarting it counts as a new task.
例如，一天的主要任务可能是撰写提案、咨询客户和审阅一本书。在这些主要任务之间，我可能会打一个简短的电话、处理和回复收到的电子邮件、阅读一些文章、洗碗和打扫我的办公室。
For example, one day’s major tasks might be writing a proposal, consulting with a client, and reviewing a book. Between these major tasks, I might make a short phone call, process and answer incoming emails, read a few articles, do the dishes, and clean my office.
只要我为我的主要任务留出大量时间，我可以在一天内完成所有事情。如果我在一项主要任务中途被打断，那项任务当天就无法完成，或者另一项主要任务将不得不推迟。请记住，我在一天内可以完成的事情是有限的，这样更容易保持压力和恢复的平衡。
As long as I set aside large chunks of time for my major tasks, I can accomplish everything in a single day. If I’m interrupted in the middle of a major task, that task won’t be done that day, or another major task will have to slip. Keeping in mind that there’s a limit to what I can accomplish in a single day makes it easier to keep Stress and Recovery in balance.
消除无效的上下文切换，您将事半功倍。
Eliminate unproductive context switching and you’ll get more done with less effort.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/cognitive-switching-penalty/
四种完成方法
Four Methods of Completion
我只是一个，但我是一个。我不能做所有事情，但我可以做一些事情。因为我不能做所有的事情，所以我不会拒绝做我能做的事情。我能做什么，我就应该做什么。而我应该做的，靠着上帝的恩典，我会去做。
I am only one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something. And because I cannot do everything, I will not refuse to do the something I can do. What I can do, I should do. And what I should do, by the grace of God, I will do.
——爱德华·埃弗雷特·黑尔，十九世纪一神论牧师和作家
—EDWARD EVERETT HALE, NINETEENTH-CENTURY UNITARIAN CLERGYMAN AND WRITER
“做”某事只有四种方式：完成、删除、授权和延期。
There are only four ways to “do” something: completion, deletion, delegation, and deferment.
完成——完成任务——是大多数人考虑的选项。如果您保留待办事项列表，您可能会认为这些任务都是您完成的责任。这并不完全正确——完成只有您才能特别出色地完成的重要任务才是最好的。其他一切都可以用另一种方式处理。
Completion—doing the task—is the option most people think about. If you keep a to-do list, you’re probably assuming that those tasks are all your responsibility to get done. That’s not quite true—completion is best for important tasks that only you can do particularly well. Everything else can be handled in another manner.
删除——消除任务——对任何不重要或不必要的事情都有效。如果您的任务列表中的某些内容不重要，请不要因为删除它而感到难过。如果它不值得做，那么它就不值得做得好或做得快——不要犹豫，摆脱它。
Deletion—eliminating the task—is effective for anything that’s unimportant or unnecessary. If something on your task list is unimportant, don’t feel bad about eliminating it. If it’s not worth doing, it’s not worth doing well or quickly—don’t hesitate to get rid of it.
委派——将任务分配给其他人——对于任何其他人能做的事情，你能做到的 80% 都是有效的。为了委托，你必须有人委托给。员工、承包商或外包商都可以通过代表您完成任务来帮助您完成更多工作。
Delegation—assigning the task to someone else—is effective for anything another person can do 80 percent as well as you can. In order to delegate, you must have someone to delegate to. Employees, contractors, or outsourcers can all help you get more things done by completing tasks on your behalf.
如果您没有人可以将日常任务委派给任何人，那么与虚拟助理公司合作可能会非常有用。每月只需不到 100 美元，您就可以聘请专业团队来帮助您完成工作。如果您对委派没有什么经验，这是一个值得尝试的实验。
If you don’t have anyone to delegate routine tasks to, working with a virtual-assistant company can be quite useful. For less than $100 a month, you can enlist a team of professionals to help you get things done. If you have little experience with delegation, it’s an experiment worth trying.
延期——将任务推迟到以后——对于不重要或不依赖时间的任务是有效的。不要因为拖延某些事情而难过；让自己陷入困境的最好方法是尝试同时处理太多事情。将非关键任务留到以后处理是让您的注意力和精力集中在最重要的事情上的好方法。
Deferment—putting the task off until later—is effective for tasks that aren’t critical or time dependent. Don’t feel bad about putting some things off; the best way to bog yourself down is to try to handle too many things at the same time. Saving noncritical tasks for later is a good way to keep your attention and energy focused on what’s most important.
在Getting Things Done中，大卫·艾伦 (David Allen) 建议保留一份“某天/也许”的清单，列出您某天想做但现在并不那么重要的事情。创造力研究员 Scott Belsky 在Making Ideas Happen中推荐了一种类似的方法：创建一个“次要”任务列表，列出您最终想要完成但现在不是优先事项的任务。每隔几周查看一次此列表就足以确定您准备好提升到活动项目的任务。
In Getting Things Done, David Allen recommends keeping a “someday/maybe” list of things you’d like to do someday but that aren’t that important right now. Creativity researcher Scott Belsky recommends a similar approach in Making Ideas Happen: create a “back burner” list of tasks you want to get to eventually but that aren’t a priority right now. Reviewing this list every few weeks is enough to identify tasks you’re ready to promote to active projects.
在处理您的待办事项列表时使用所有四个选项，您将完成比您想象的更多的工作。
Use all four options when processing your to-do list and you’ll get more done than you ever thought possible.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/4-methods-of-completion/
最重要的任务
Most Important Tasks
做小事要想大事，让小事都朝着正确的方向发展。
You’ve got to think about the big things while you’re doing small things, so that all the small things go in the right direction.
—ALVIN TOFFLER，技术研究员和未来学家
—ALVIN TOFFLER, TECHNOLOGY RESEARCHER AND FUTURIST
并非所有任务生而平等——有些任务比其他任务更重要。
Not all tasks are created equal—some are more important than others.
您每天只有这么多时间和精力来完成工作。在你现在待办事项清单上的所有事情中，有些很重要，有些则不重要。如果你想充分利用你有限的时间和精力，那么在将你的时间和精力花在其他任何事情之前，先专注于完成那些将产生最大影响的任务是值得的。
You only have so much time and energy to get things done each day. Of all of the things that are on your to-do list right now, some of them are important, and some of them aren’t important. If you want to make the most of your limited time and energy, it pays to focus on completing the tasks that will make the biggest difference first, before spending your time and energy on anything else.
最重要 的任务(MIT)是一项关键任务，它将创造您希望实现的最重要的结果。你盘子里的每样东西的重要性或价值都不相同，所以不要对你的任务清单上的每样东西都一视同仁。通过花几分钟确定一些重要的任务，您将更容易专注于首先完成它们。
A Most Important Task (MIT) is a critical task that will create the most important results you’re looking to achieve. Everything on your plate is not equal in importance or value, so don’t treat everything on your task list the same. By taking a few minutes to identify a few tasks as important, you’ll make it easier to focus on doing them first.
每天开始时，创建一个包含两三个 MIT 的列表，然后专注于尽快完成它们。将此列表与您的一般待办事项列表或任务跟踪系统分开。我使用三乘五的索引卡或 David Seah 的“紧急任务计划器”，6一种可免费下载的 PDF 文件，可帮助您轻松计划一天。
At the beginning of every day, create a list of two or three MITs, then focus on getting them done as fast as possible. Keep this list separate from your general to-do list or task-tracking system. I use a three-by-five index card or David Seah’s “Emergent Task Planner,”6 a free downloadable PDF that makes it easy to plan your day.
在创建你的 MIT 列表时，问一个自我启发的问题是很有用的：“我今天需要做的两三件最重要的事情是什么？哪些事情——如果我今天完成了——会产生巨大的变化？” 只把那些任务写在你的麻省理工学院清单上，然后试着在早上第一件事就把它们完成。
When creating your list of MITs, it’s useful to ask a Self-Elicitation question: “What are the two or three most important things that I need to do today? What are the things that—if I got them done today—would make a huge difference?” Write only those tasks on your MIT list, then try to get them done first thing in the morning.
通过设置人为的截止日期将此技术与帕金森定律相结合是非常有效的。如果您设定的目标是在上午 10:00 之前完成所有 MIT，您会惊讶于自己完成当天最重要任务的速度有多快。
Combining this technique with Parkinson’s Law by setting an artificial deadline is very effective. If you set a goal to have all of your MITs done by 10:00 a.m., you’ll be amazed at how fast you can complete the day’s Most Important Tasks.
拥有两个或三个 MIT 的列表可以帮助您保持单一理想状态，因为您可以允许您对不那么重要的中断说不。如果你正在研究 MIT 并且有人打电话给你，忽略这个电话或告诉来电者，“我在截止日期前工作——我会回来的稍后给你。根据定义，所有不是 MIT 的东西都不那么重要，因此更容易对非关键中断说不。
Having a list of two or three MITs helps you maintain a Monoideal state by giving you permission to say no to interruptions that aren’t as important. If you’re working on your MITs and someone calls you, it’s easier to ignore the call or tell the caller, “I’m working under deadline—I’ll get back to you later.” By definition, everything that’s not an MIT is not as important, so it’s easier to say no to noncritical interruptions.
早上第一件事就是完成你的 MIT，然后你将有一天剩下的时间来处理出现的任何其他事情。
Achieve your MITs first thing in the morning and then you’ll have the rest of the day to handle anything else that comes up.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/most-important-tasks/
目标
Goals
设定一个模糊的目标就像走进一家餐馆说：“我饿了。我要吃的。” 在你点东西之前，你会一直饿着。
Setting a vague goal is like walking into a restaurant and saying, “I’m hungry. I want some food.” You’ll stay hungry until you order something.
—史蒂夫·帕夫林纳 (STEVE PAVLINA)， 《聪明人的个人发展》一书的作者
—STEVE PAVLINA, AUTHOR OF PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SMART PEOPLE
商业文献中有很多关于制定目标的重要性的论述。良好的目标可以完成两件事：它们可以帮助您形象化您想要的东西，并让您对实现它感到兴奋。目标是一种声明，它准确地阐明了您想要实现的目标，这使您的大脑可以轻松地使用心理模拟来可视化实现该目标的样子。如果您正在寻找的最终结果是模糊的或模糊的，那么您的大脑的自动计划系统就很难找到获得您想要的东西的方法。良好的目标在动机中也起着关键作用——你的目标定义得越好，你就越容易为获得你想要的东西而感到兴奋。
Much has been made in business literature about the importance of having Goals. Well-formed Goals accomplish two things: they help you visualize what you want and make you excited about achieving it. A Goal is a statement that clarifies precisely what you want to achieve, which makes it easy for your brain to use Mental Simulation to Visualize what achieving that Goal looks like. If the End Result you’re looking for is vague or fuzzy, you’re making it difficult for your mind’s automatic planning systems to find ways to get what you want. Well-formed Goals also play a key role in Motivation—the better defined your Goal, the easier it is to get excited about doing the things required to get what you want.
像“我想爬山”这样的模糊目标并不是很有帮助，因为它们不会给你的大脑提供任何可以使用的材料。哪座山？在哪里？什么时候？为什么？如果没有这些问题的答案，您可能根本不会做任何事情。
Fuzzy Goals like “I want to climb a mountain” aren’t very helpful because they don’t give your brain any material to work with. Which mountain? Where? When? Why? Without answers to these questions, you probably won’t do anything at all.
结构良好的目标通过了“珠穆朗玛峰测试”。有用的目标是这样的：“我想在 40 岁生日前登上珠穆朗玛峰的顶峰，并拍一张全景照片作为奖杯镶嵌在我的墙上。” 这个目标很容易让你的大脑模拟——珠穆朗玛峰在尼泊尔，所以你必须安排旅行。您还必须提高攀登技巧，寻找向导，购买设备，购买合适的相机等。一旦您有意识地做出实现目标的决定，您的头脑就会开始寻找完成目标的方法。
Well-formed Goals pass the “Everest Test.” Useful Goals look like this: “I want to climb to the summit of Mount Everest before my fortieth birthday and take a panoramic picture to frame on my wall as a trophy.” This Goal is easy for your brain to simulate—Mount Everest is in Nepal, so you’ll have to arrange travel. You’ll also have to improve your climbing skills, find a guide, buy equipment, purchase a suitable camera, etc. Once you make a conscious Decision to achieve the Goal, your mind starts finding ways to get it done.
如果目标以积极的、直接的、具体的、具体的 (PICS) 格式构建，则它们最有用：
Goals are most useful if they’re Framed in a Positive, Immediate, Concrete, Specific (PICS) format:
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积极指的是动机——你的目标应该是你朝着而不是远离的方向前进。像“我不想再变胖了”这样的目标是威胁锁定的秘诀——你是在强化消极因素，而不是使用重新解释来改变你的想法预测，从而对改进感到兴奋。为了获得最佳结果，请先消除冲突，然后朝着您想要实现的目标前进。
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Positive refers to Motivation—your Goal should be something you move toward, not away from. Goals like “I don’t want to be fat anymore” are a recipe for Threat Lockdown—you’re reinforcing the negative instead of using Reinterpretation to change your mind’s prediction to get excited about improving. For best results, eliminate Conflicts first, then move toward what you want to achieve.
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立即是指时间尺度：你的目标应该是你决定在现在取得进展的事情，而不是“有一天”或“最终”。如果您现在不想致力于实现某个特定目标，请将其放在您的某天/也许列表中并专注于其他事情。
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Immediate refers to time scale: your Goals should be things that you decide to make progress on now, not “someday” or “eventually.” If you don’t want to commit to working on a particular Goal now, put it on your someday/maybe list and focus on something else.
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具体意味着您能够在现实世界中看到结果。目标就是成就——你应该知道你什么时候完成了你设定的目标。设定像“我想要快乐”这样的目标是行不通的，因为它们不具体——你怎么知道你什么时候完成了？当您到达珠穆朗玛峰的顶端时，您就在现实世界中取得了一些成就——那是具体的。
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Concrete means you’re able to see the results in the real world. Goals are achievements—you should know when you’ve accomplished what you set out to achieve. Setting Goals like “I want to be happy” won’t work because they’re not concrete—how would you know when you’re done? When you reach the top of Mount Everest, you’ve achieved something in the real world—that’s concrete.
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具体意味着您能够定义您要实现目标的内容、时间和地点。在不久的将来的某个日期之前攀登珠穆朗玛峰是特定的，这使您的头脑很容易计划如何完成它。
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Specific means you’re able to define what, when, and where you’re going to achieve your Goal. Climbing Mount Everest before a certain date in the near future is specific, which makes it easy for your mind to plan how you’ll go about accomplishing it.
为了获得最佳效果，您的目标应该在您的控制之下。像“我想减掉 20 磅”这样的目标令人心碎，因为它们不受您的控制——减肥是结果，而不是努力。如果你的体重在某一天随机增加了几磅，你很容易感到失败，即使你别无选择。为了获得最佳效果，请在您的控制点内制定您的目标行动，例如每天至少进行 30 分钟的锻炼并控制您消耗的卡路里数量。
For best effect, your Goals should be under your control. Goals like “I want to lose twenty pounds” are soul crushing because they’re not under your control—losing weight is a result, not an effort. If your weight randomly moves up a few pounds on a given day, it’s easy to feel defeated, even though you had no choice in the matter. For best results, make your Goals actions that are within your Locus of Control, like doing a minimum of thirty minutes of exercise every day and controlling the number of calories you consume.
要跟踪您的目标，任何简单的笔记本或参考系统都可以。我将我所有的目标记录在一个简单的文本文件中，我将其打印出来并保存在我的待办事项笔记本中。每当我思考我需要做什么时，我手边有一份目标清单，便于参考，这让我很容易确定哪些任务最重要。
To track your Goals, any simple notebook or reference system will do. I capture all of my Goals in a simple text file, which I print out and keep in my to-do notebook. Whenever I’m thinking about what I need to do, I have my list of Goals handy for easy reference, which makes it easy to determine which tasks are most important.
改变你的目标是可以的。有时我们认为我们想要一些东西，后来才发现我们不再那么想要它了。不要为此感到难过——这叫做学习。如果您发现自己正在朝着一个您不再感觉良好的目标努力，那就去做其他事情。
It’s okay to change your Goals. Sometimes we think we want something, only to find out later that we don’t want it so much anymore. Don’t feel bad about that—it’s called learning. If you find yourself working toward a Goal you no longer feel good about, work on something else.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/goals/
存在状态
States of Being
我可能没有去我想去的地方，但我想我已经到达了我想去的地方。
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I intended to be.
——道格拉斯·亚当斯，幽默家和《漫游指南》系列的作者
—DOUGLAS ADAMS, HUMORIST AND AUTHOR OF THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE SERIES
我看到人们在设定目标时犯的一个常见错误是假设一切都是成就。
One of the common mistakes I see people make when setting Goals is assuming everything is an achievement.
想想“我想要快乐”、“我想要兴奋”和“我想要成功”这样的陈述。你怎么知道你是否已经实现了你设定的目标？如果您的日常体验发生变化，您能否获得快乐、兴奋或成功？
Think of statements like “I want to be happy,” “I want to feel excited,” and “I want to be successful.” How do you know if you’ve achieved what you set out to do? Can you achieve happiness, excitement, or success if your day-to-day experience changes?
存在状态是您当前体验的质量。情感体验不是成就，因为它们会随着时间的推移而波动——你现在可能很开心，但一小时后就会心烦意乱。“快乐”不是一种成就——它是你当前体验的一种品质。
A State of Being is a quality of your present experience. Emotional experiences aren’t achievements because they fluctuate over time—you can be happy right now and upset an hour from now. “Being happy” is not an achievement—it’s a quality of your present experience.
存在状态是决策标准，而不是目标。想要“快乐”或“成功”是可以的，但将这些愿望视为目标会导致沮丧。与其将这些状态视为成就，不如将它们视为决策标准——理解您的行为是否导致您期望的结果的方式。
States of Being are decision criteria, not Goals. It’s okay to want to “be happy” or “be successful,” but treating these desires as Goals is a recipe for frustration. Instead of treating these states as achievements, it’s far better to think of them as decision criteria—ways of understanding whether or not your actions are leading to your desired results.
存在状态可以帮助您回答“我现在正在做的事情有效吗？”这个问题。例如，如果您想感到快乐，您可能会注意到与亲密的朋友和家人共度时光可以创造您想要的体验，因此为这些事情腾出时间显然很重要。如果你想感到平静，但你的工作让你一直感到压力很大，很明显情况需要改变——你所做的没有用。
States of Being help you answer the question “Is what I’m doing right now working?” For example, if you want to feel happy, you may notice that spending time with close friends and family members creates the experience you want, so making time for those things is obviously important. If you want to feel calm, but your job is making you stressed out all the time, it’s clear the situation needs to change—what you’re doing isn’t working.
将复杂的存在状态分解成更小的部分更有用。与其使用“成功”和“幸福”等复杂的存在状态作为决策标准，不如决定这些状态对您意味着什么。例如，我将“成功”定义为“和我喜欢的人一起做我喜欢的事情”、“可以自由选择我的工作”和“有足够的钱生活而没有经济压力”。总之，这些存在状态为成功提供了一个更有用的定义——如果这就是我体验世界的方式，我就是“成功的”。
Breaking down complex States of Being into smaller parts is even more useful. Instead of using complex States of Being like “success” and “happiness” as decision criteria, it’s far better to decide what these states mean to you. For example, I define “being successful” as “working on things I enjoy with people I like,” “feeling free to choose what I work on,” and “having enough money to live without financial stress.” Together, these States of Being provide a much more useful definition of success—if that’s how I’m experiencing the world, I’m “successful.”
“幸福”也是如此。“快乐”不是单一的存在状态，而是“玩得开心”、“与我喜欢的人共度时光”、“感觉平静”和“感觉自由”的结合。当这些存在状态描述我当下的体验时，我很“快乐”。将“幸福”分解成它的组成部分有助于我确保我正在做的事情将帮助我更充分和更频繁地体验它。
The same goes for “happiness.” Instead of being a single State of Being, “being happy” is a combination of “having fun,” “spending time with people I enjoy,” “feeling calm,” and “feeling free.” When those States of Being describe my experience in the present moment, I’m “happy.” Breaking down “happiness” into its component parts helps me ensure I’m doing things that will help me experience it more fully and more often.
决定你想要体验什么样的存在状态，你将拥有一套强大的决策标准，你可以使用它以一种全新且有用的方式评估你的行为的结果。
Decide what States of Being you want to experience, and you’ll have a powerful set of decision criteria you can use to evaluate the results of your actions in an entirely new and useful way.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/states-of-being/
习惯
Habits
我们就是要反复做。因此，卓越不是一种行为而是一种习惯。
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.
——威尔·杜兰特，历史学家，释义亚里士多德，古希腊哲学家
—WILL DURANT, HISTORIAN, PARAPHRASING ARISTOTLE, ANCIENT GREEK PHILOSOPHER
您想每天做些什么，例如锻炼？那是一个目标还是一种存在状态？技巧问题：它们不属于任何一类。
What about things you want to do on a daily basis, like exercising? Is that a Goal or a State of Being? Trick question: they don’t belong in either category.
习惯是支持我们的常规行为。锻炼、刷牙、服用维生素、遵循特定的饮食习惯或与朋友和家人保持联系都是让我们保持快乐和健康的习惯的例子。由于积累的力量，随着时间的推移，小习惯可以积累成巨大的成果。
Habits are regular actions that support us. Exercising, brushing your teeth, taking vitamins, following a particular diet, or keeping in touch with friends and family are all examples of Habits that keep us happy and healthy. Due to the power of Accumulation, small Habits can add up to huge results over time.
大多数习惯采用四种常见形式之一：您想开始做的事情、想停止做的事情、想多做的事情和想少做的事情。例如，您可能想开始定期锻炼、停止看电视、多喝水或少花钱。
Most Habits take on one of four common forms: things you want to start doing, things you want to stop doing, things you want to do more, and things you want to do less. For example, you might want to start exercising regularly, stop watching television, drink more water, or spend less money.
习惯通常需要一定的意志力才能形成。因此，最好使用我们在“指导结构”一节中讨论的技巧，以便更轻松地灌输您想养成的习惯。如果您想在早上第一件事就是去健身房，那么在前一天晚上收拾好您的健身包并准备好运动服会让您更轻松地去健身房，因为您已经构建了您的环境以减少行动的难度。
Habits usually require a certain amount of willpower to create. Therefore it’s best to use the techniques we discussed in the section on Guiding Structure to make it easier to instill the Habits you want to adopt. If you want to go to the gym first thing in the morning, packing your gym bag and laying out workout clothing the night before makes it easier to go, since you’ve structured your environment to require less effort to act.
如果您寻找触发信号，表明何时该采取行动，习惯就更容易养成。例如，如果您想服用维生素，如果您使用另一个习惯性动作作为该动作的触发因素，则更容易记住服用它们。与其依靠大脑记住在一天中服用维生素，不如在早上或晚上刷牙作为提醒。
Habits are easier to install if you look for triggers that signal when it’s time to act. For example, if you want to take vitamins, it’s easier to remember to take them if you use another habitual action as a trigger for the action. Instead of relying on your mind to remember to take your vitamins in the middle of the day, you can use brushing your teeth in the morning or evening as a reminder.
为获得最佳效果，请专注于一次建立一个习惯。如果你试图一次养成太多习惯，你很可能无法长期成功地养成其中任何一个。专注于建立一个习惯，直到感觉自动采取行动，然后继续下一个。
For best results, focus on installing one Habit at a time. If you try to install too many Habits at once, you probably won’t succeed at adopting any of them for long. Focus on installing one Habit until taking action feels automatic, then move on to the next.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/habits/
启动
Priming
许多物体虽然在我们的视觉范围内，却没有被看到，因为它不在我们的智力范围内，即我们没有在寻找它。所以，从最大的意义上说，我们找到的只是我们寻找的世界。
Many an object is not seen, though it falls within the range of our visual ray, because it does not come within the range of our intellectual ray, i.e., we are not looking for it. So, in the largest sense, we find only the world we look for.
——亨利·大卫·梭罗
—HENRY DAVID THOREAU
您是否曾经对某种特定类型的汽车感兴趣，只是开始注意到它们无处不在？我有——感觉就像有人突然在高速公路上卸载了数百辆你喜欢的汽车的确切品牌和型号。
Have you ever been interested in a particular type of car, only to start noticing them everywhere? I have—it feels like someone suddenly unloaded hundreds of the exact make and model of the car you like all over the highway.
当然，这不是真的——宇宙没有跟你开玩笑。这汽车总是在那里；您以前从未注意到它们。在您决定对特定类型的汽车感兴趣之前，您的大脑会将这些汽车从您的意识中过滤掉。
That’s not true, of course—the universe isn’t playing tricks on you. The cars were always there; you just never noticed them before. Before you decided you were interested in a particular type of car, your brain filtered those cars out of your awareness.
然而，一旦你开始感兴趣，你的大脑就会停止过滤掉这些信息，你就会开始注意到每次特定的汽车驶过。从某种意义上说，您对大脑进行了编程以注意周围环境的某些事物。只需要对特定的事物产生兴趣即可移除过滤器。
Once you became interested, however, your brain stopped filtering out that information, and you started noticing every time that particular car drove by. In a sense, you programmed your brain to notice certain things about the Environment around you. All it took was becoming interested in something specific to remove the filter.
启动是一种对大脑进行编程的方法，可以在您的环境中出现特定信息时提醒您。我们大脑的模式匹配功能的一个引人入胜的结果是，我们总是在扫描环境以寻找有用的信息。如果你明确地告诉你的大脑你想要找到什么，它就会在你的感官注意到它时提醒你。
Priming is a method of programming your brain to alert you when particular information is present in your Environment. One of the fascinating ramifications of our brain’s Pattern Matching function is that we’re always scanning the Environment for useful information. If you tell your mind specifically what you want to find, it will alert you whenever your senses notice it.
启动是影响大脑模式匹配能力的一种方式。通过花一些时间来决定您感兴趣的内容和您正在寻找的内容，您可以对您的大脑进行编程，以便在它注意到相关内容时提醒您。有些人将此称为“直觉”——启动是将直觉用于生产性用途的方式。
Priming is a way to influence your brain’s Pattern Matching capabilities. By taking a few moments to decide what you’re interested in and what you’re looking for, you can program your mind to alert you when it notices something relevant. Some people call this “intuition”—Priming is how you put your intuition to productive use.
这是我如何使用 Priming 的示例：在10 Days to Faster Reading一书中，Abby Marks-Beale 推荐了一种我称之为“目的设定”的技巧：在开始阅读之前花几分钟弄清楚（1）为什么你想要阅读此材料以及 (2) 您正在寻找什么样的信息。在拿起这本书之前记下一些笔记可以强化你想要找到的东西。
Here’s an example of how I use Priming: in the book 10 Days to Faster Reading, Abby Marks-Beale recommends a technique I refer to as “purpose setting”: taking a few minutes before you start reading to figure out (1) why you want to read this material and (2) what kind of information you’re looking for. Jotting down a few notes before picking up the book reinforces what you’re looking to find.
在确定了你的目的之后，你拿起这本书并快速翻阅，特别注意目录、章节标题和索引——关于本书包含的内容和材料结构的信息的浓缩来源。记下看似重要的术语和概念有助于让您的大脑做好准备，以便在它们稍后出现时注意到它们。
After defining your purpose, you then pick up the book and flip through it quickly, paying particular Attention to the table of contents, section headings, and index—condensed sources of information about what the book contains and how the material is structured. Jotting down terms and concepts that appear to be important helps prime your brain to notice them when they appear later.
这个过程只需要几分钟，但它对你阅读速度的影响是深远的。一旦您准备好注意重要概念，您就可以以闪电般的速度阅读整本书。当您阅读时，您的大脑会过滤掉不重要的材料，并专注于您感兴趣的材料。
This process only takes a few minutes, but the impact it has on your reading speed is profound. Once you’ve primed your mind to notice important concepts, you can work your way through the entire book at lightning speed. As you read, your brain filters out unimportant material and homes in on the material you’re interested in learning.
因此，可以在不到 20 分钟的时间内提取几乎所有非小说类书籍中的大部分有用内容。当我去图书馆或书店时，这种技巧可以让我在不到一个小时的时间内阅读几本书。如果不使用这种方法，我就无法创建今天存在的个人 MBA 阅读清单，更不用说写这本书了。
As a result, it’s possible to extract most of the useful content in almost any nonfiction book in less than twenty minutes. When I go to a library or bookstore, this technique allows me to read several books in less than an hour. Without using this method, there’s no way I could have created the Personal MBA reading list as it exists today, let alone written this book.
人们在朝着特定目标努力时“走运”的方式之一是通过启动。目标设定之所以有用，原因之一是因为它是一种简单的方法，可以让您的大脑做好准备，寻找可以帮助您获得想要的东西。如果您的目标是攀登珠穆朗玛峰，那么在浏览旅游网站时，您更有可能注意到去尼泊尔的机票有 70% 的折扣。如果您在设定目标之前阅读相同的内容，您可能会将其过滤掉——您没有理由去关注。
One of the ways people “get lucky” when they’re working toward a particular Goal is via Priming. One of the reasons Goal setting is useful is because it’s an easy way to prime your brain to look for things that will help you get what you want. If your goal is to climb Mount Everest, you’re far more likely to notice when tickets to Nepal are 70 percent off while browsing a travel website. If you read the same thing before setting the Goal, you’d probably filter it out—you’d have no reason to pay Attention.
花一些时间让你的大脑做好准备，注意什么对你很重要，你就会找到它。
Take some time to prime your brain to notice what’s important to you and you’ll find it.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/priming/
决定
Decision
在每一天的每一刻，我都必须决定下一刻我要做什么；没有人可以替我做这个决定，也没有人可以代替我。
In every moment of every day I must decide what I am going to do the next moment; and no one can make this decision for me, or take my place in this.
—JOSÉ ORTEGA Y GASSET，哲学家和散文家
—JOSÉ ORTEGA Y GASSET, PHILOSOPHER AND ESSAYIST
决策是承诺执行特定行动计划的行为。“决定”一词来自拉丁语decidere，意思是“切断”。当你做出决定时，你就切断了你可以探索的其他可能途径，只留下你承诺的道路。如果你没有切断可行的选择，你就没有做出决定。
A Decision is the act of committing to a specific plan of action. The word “decide” comes from the Latin decidere, which means “to cut off.” When you make a Decision, you’re cutting off the other possible avenues that you could explore, leaving only the path you’re committing to. If you’re not cutting off viable options, you’re not making a Decision.
无论你的个人生产力系统有多好，它都无法为你做决定。无论您的任务跟踪系统多么复杂，它永远无法告诉您在任何给定时刻该做的最好的事情。构建一个系统来为您做出决策是一个白日梦——系统所能做的就是帮助提供您可以用来做出更好决策的信息。做出决定永远是您的责任。
No matter how good your personal productivity system is, it can’t make Decisions for you. No matter how sophisticated your task-tracking system is, it will never be able to tell you the best thing to do at any given moment. Constructing a system to make Decisions for you is a pipe dream—all systems can do is help provide information you can use to make better Decisions. Making the Decision will always be your responsibility.
没有任何决定，无论大小，都是在获得完整信息的情况下做出的。由于我们无法预测未来，我们常常将犹豫不决的感觉归因于缺乏信息。正在发生的事情是精神上的颠簸——你的前脑的工作是解决歧义并做出决定，所以你的中脑将继续发送信号，直到你的前脑完成它的工作。一旦做出决定——无论它是什么——颠簸就会停止。
No Decision, large or small, is ever made with complete information. Since we can’t predict the future, we often attribute the feeling of indecisiveness to a lack of information. What’s happening is mental thrashing—your forebrain’s job is to resolve ambiguities and make Decisions, so your midbrain will continue to send signals until your forebrain does its job. Once a Decision is made—whatever it is—the thrashing stops.
不要觉得在做决定之前需要掌握所有信息——这个世界太复杂了，无法做出准确的预测。退休将军科林鲍威尔提倡收集一半的可用信息，然后做出决定，即使你的信息不完整。“不要等到你有足够的事实才能 100% 确定，因为到那时几乎总是为时已晚。” . . 一旦[你获得了 40% 到 70% 的可用信息]，就凭直觉去做。” 7
Don’t feel you need to have all of the information before you decide—the world is too complicated to make accurate predictions. Retired general Colin Powell famously advocates collecting half of the information available, then making a Decision, even though your information is incomplete. “Don’t wait until you have enough facts to be 100 percent sure, because by then it is almost always too late . . . Once [you’ve acquired 40 to 70 percent of the available information], go with your gut.”7
如果这是生死战决策的制胜策略，那么它也适用于生活的日常决策。收集足够的信息来做出明智的决定，然后做出决定并继续前进。
If that’s a winning strategy for life-and-death battle decisions, it’ll work for life’s daily Decisions as well. Collect just enough information to make an informed Decision, then make your Decision and move forward.
未能做出决定本身就是一个决定。如果你拒绝选择，生活不会停止——世界会继续向前发展，你可能会被迫默认采取行动。放弃对你的决定的责任并不意味着你没有做出决定——你只是让自己成为环境的受害者。
Failure to make a Decision is itself a Decision. Life doesn’t stop if you refuse to choose—the world will keep moving forward, and you may be forced to take action by default. Abdicating responsibility for your Decisions doesn’t mean you’re not making them—you’re just allowing yourself to be a victim of circumstance.
为了获得最佳结果，请以有意识、深思熟虑的方式做出决定。以我的经验，许多人很难弄清楚该怎么做，因为他们犹豫不决做出决定——损失厌恶促使他们保留所有选择，“以防万一”。然而，如果没有做出决定，他们的大脑就无法使用心理模拟来弄清楚如何从他们现在所在的位置到达他们认为自己想要的位置，因此他们的思想会徒劳地思索。
For best results, make your Decisions in a conscious, deliberate way. In my experience, many people have difficulty figuring out what to do because they hesitate to make a Decision—Loss Aversion prompts them to leave all of their options open, “just in case.” Without a Decision, however, their brain can’t use Mental Simulation to figure out how to get from where they are now to where they think they want to be, so their minds thrash around unproductively.
对自己说，“我现在决定做某事”，这样会更容易进行下去。一旦最终做出决定，您大脑的心理模拟规划回路就会启动，您将再次开始行动。
Saying to yourself, “I am deciding to do X right now,” makes it much easier to proceed. Once a Decision is finally made, your brain’s Mental Simulation planning circuits will kick into gear, and you’ll start moving again.
如果你在做决定时遇到困难，《聪明人的个人发展》一书的作者史蒂夫帕夫林纳建议使用这个问题作为决胜局：“在可用的选项中，我想拥有哪种体验？” 如果你在做某件事时遇到困难决定，这可能是因为你的大脑很难找出哪个是最好的。这是一种不舒服的情况，但它的意思是你选择哪一个并不重要。如果那是真的，你可以选择你觉得更有趣的经历。
If you’re having difficulties making a Decision, Steve Pavlina, the author of Personal Development for Smart People, recommends using this question as the tiebreaker: “Out of the available options, which experience do I want to have?” If you’re having a difficult time making a particular Decision, it’s probably because your brain is having a hard time figuring out which one is best. It’s an uncomfortable situation, but what it means is that it doesn’t really matter which one you choose. If that’s true, you can choose the experience you find more interesting.
当凯尔西在纽约市收到一份诱人的工作机会时，我们花了数周时间在留在辛辛那提和搬到大城市之间徘徊。搬家涉及许多不确定因素：我们将住在哪里？我们买得起吗？我的工作呢？这足以给我们俩一个糟糕的威胁锁定案例。
When Kelsey received an enticing job offer in New York City, we spent weeks torn between staying in Cincinnati and moving to the big city. There were many uncertainties involved with moving: Where would we live? Could we afford it? What about my job? It was enough to give us both a bad case of Threat Lockdown.
最后，我们意识到没有明显的赢家，所以我们选择哪一个并不重要。住在纽约是我们都想拥有的经历，所以我们决定搬家。几乎立刻，我们感到一种清晰和如释重负的感觉。即使面对不确定性，做出决定也能让我们继续前进，而不是继续挣扎。
In the end, we realized there wasn’t a clear winner, so it didn’t matter which one we chose. Living in New York was an experience we both wanted to have, so we decided to move. Almost immediately, we felt a sense of clarity and relief. Instead of continuing to thrash, making a Decision allowed us to move forward, even in the face of Uncertainty.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/decision/
五重原因
Five-Fold Why
问下一个问题，再问下一个问题，再问下一个问题。
Ask the next question, and the one that follows that, and the one that follows that.
——西奥多·斯特金，《超越人类》的作者
—THEODORE STURGEON, AUTHOR OF MORE THAN HUMAN
很多时候，我们不知道为什么我们想要我们想要的东西。进行“根本原因分析”是发现我们欲望背后动机的有用方法。
Very often, we’re not aware of why we want what we want. Conducting a “root-cause analysis” is a useful way to discover the motivations behind our desires.
五重为什么是一种帮助你发现你真正想要的东西的技巧。不要从表面上看你的愿望，检查你想要什么的根本原因可以帮助你定义你的核心愿望。
The Five-Fold Why is a technique to help you discover what you actually want. Instead of taking your desires at face value, examining the root cause of what you want can help you define your core desires.
应用五重原因很容易：每当您设定目标或目标时，问问自己为什么想要它。如果你想成为百万富翁，问问自己为什么想要拥有 100 万美元。
Applying the Five-Fold Why is easy: whenever you set a Goal or objective, ask yourself why you want it. If you want to become a millionaire, ask yourself why you want to have $1 million.
不要试图强迫回答——只是本着好奇的精神问自己这个问题，等到你的大脑自己产生反应。当您的想法提供答案时，再问一次为什么。继续问你自己为什么，直到你得到一个“因为我想要它”的回答，这表明你已经达到了你最初目标的根本原因。
Don’t try to force an answer—just ask yourself the question in a spirit of curiosity and wait until your mind generates a response on its own. When your mind provides an answer, ask why again. Continue to ask yourself why until you get a “because I want it” response, which indicates you’ve reached the root cause of your original Goal.
以下是如何将五重原因应用于经典目标“我想成为百万富翁”的示例：
Here’s an example of how to apply the Five-Fold Why to the classic Goal “I want to be a millionaire”:
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为什么我要 100 万美元？因为我不想因为钱而感到压力。
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Why do I want $1 million? Because I don’t want to be stressed about money.
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你为什么不想因为钱而感到压力？所以我并不感到焦虑。
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Why don’t you want to be stressed about money? So I don’t feel anxious.
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你为什么不想感到焦虑？所以我有安全感。
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Why don’t you want to feel anxious? So I feel secure.
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你为什么想要安全感？所以我觉得很自由。
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Why do you want to feel secure? So I feel free.
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你为什么想要自由？因为我想要自由。
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Why do you want to feel free? Because I want to feel free.
根本愿望不是拥有 100 万美元——而是感觉自由。没有 100 万美元是否可以自由自在？是的——有许多与金钱无关的方式可以让你感到自由。采取替代方法来解决真正的愿望可能比您最初的目标更有效。
The root desire isn’t having $1 million—it’s feeling free. Is it possible to feel free without having $1 million? Yes—there are many ways to feel free that have nothing to do with money. Taking an alternate approach that addresses the real desire may be more effective than your original Goal.
发现你的目标背后的根本原因，你就会发现新的方法来获得你想要的。
Discover the root causes behind your Goals and you’ll discover new ways to get what you want.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/five-fold-why/
五倍如何
Five-Fold How
走到你能看到的地方；当你到达那里时，你将能够看得更远。
Go as far as you can see; when you get there you’ll be able to see farther.
——托马斯·卡莱尔，十九世纪的散文家和历史学家
—THOMAS CARLYLE, NINETEENTH-CENTURY ESSAYIST AND HISTORIAN
应用五重为什么之后，您可能会发现您想要的与您认为想要的完全不同。现在您已经确定了最初目标的根本原因，是时候弄清楚如何获得您真正想要的东西了。
After applying the Five-Fold Why, you’ll probably discover that what you want is quite different from what you thought you wanted. Now that you’ve identified the root cause of your original Goals, it’s time to figure out how to get what you really want.
五重方法是一种将您的核心愿望与身体行动联系起来的方法。让我们使用前面的例子：核心愿望是感受自由。你会怎么做？
The Five-Fold How is a way to connect your core desires to physical actions. Let’s use the previous example: the core desire is to feel free. How would you go about doing that?
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偿还未偿债务
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Paying off an outstanding debt
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减少您的工作时间、寻找其他职位或成为一名企业家
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Reducing your work hours, finding another position, or becoming an entrepreneur
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搬到一个新的城市或国家
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Moving to a new city or country
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打破限制性的人际关系
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Breaking off a restricting personal relationship
一旦你找到一个看起来不错的“方法”，再问一遍。比方说，辞掉工作去创业会给你最大的自由感。你会怎么做？填写细节，最初模糊的想法变得越来越明确。
Once you find a “how” that looks like a good idea, ask how again. Let’s say that quitting your job and starting a business would give you the greatest sense of freedom. How would you go about doing that? Fill in the details, and what was at first a fuzzy idea becomes more and more defined.
继续问“怎么做”，直到您根据下一步行动（接下来讨论）定义了您的计划。五重方法的目的是创建一个完整的行动链，从你的大想法一直到你现在可以做的事情。
Continue asking “how” until you’ve defined your plan in terms of Next Actions (discussed next). The purpose of the Five-Fold How is to create a complete chain of actions from your big idea all the way down to things that you can do right now.
如果做得好，每一个动作都会让你在做的时候体验到你想要什么。如果还清债务会让你感到自由，那么以这种方式连接点会让你在每次还款时感觉越来越自由，这使得继续前进变得容易得多。
Done properly, each action gives you an experience of what you want as you do it. If paying off a debt would make you feel free, connecting the dots in this way enables you to feel more and more free every time you make a payment, which makes it much easier to keep going.
将您的大目标与您现在可以采取的小行动联系起来，您将实现您设定的目标。
Connect your big Goals to small actions you can take now and you’ll achieve what you set out to accomplish.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/five-fold-how/
下一步行动
Next Action
如果我们持续而迅速地关注我们能做的事，不久我们就会惊奇地发现我们无能为力。
If we attend continually and promptly to the little that we can do, we shall ere long be surprised to find how little remains that we cannot do.
——塞缪尔·巴特勒，十九世纪小说家
—SAMUEL BUTLER, NINETEENTH-CENTURY NOVELIST
通常，我们想要实现的目标无法一蹴而就。项目是需要采取不止一项行动才能完成的目标，项目越大，就越难预测必须完成的所有行动。
Often, what we want to achieve can’t be done in a single sitting. Projects are Goals that take more than one action to complete, and the larger the project is, the more difficult it is to anticipate all of the actions that must be done.
攀登珠穆朗玛峰是一个充满复杂性和不确定性的项目。你如何处理一个大到让你不知所措的项目？
Climbing Mount Everest is a project—one fraught with complexity and Uncertainty. How do you work on a project so large it threatens to overwhelm you?
很简单：只关注你下一步需要采取的行动来实现你的目标。
Simple: focus only on the action you need to take next to move toward your Goal.
下一步行动是您可以立即做的下一个具体的具体事情，以推动项目向前发展。您不必知道要在项目上取得进展必须做的所有事情——您只需要知道接下来您可以做些什么来推动项目前进。
The Next Action is the next specific, concrete thing you can do right away to move a project forward. You don’t have to know everything that must be done to make progress on a project—all you need to know is the very next thing you can do to move the project forward.
Getting Things Done的作者 David Allen创造了这个词来描述他的“基本过程”的核心步骤之一：
David Allen, the author of Getting Things Done, coined the term to describe one of the core steps of his “fundamental process”:
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写下你此时此刻最想念的项目或情况。
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Write down a project or situation that is most on your mind at this moment.
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现在用一个书面句子描述您对这个问题或情况的预期结果。需要做什么来标记这个“完成”？
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Now describe in a single written sentence your intended desired outcome for this problem or situation. What needs to happen to mark this “done”?
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接下来，写下推动局势向前发展所需的下一个实际行动步骤。
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Next, write down the very next physical action step required to move the situation forward.
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将这些答案放在您信任的系统中。
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Put those answers in a system you trust.
根据艾伦的说法，这些问题可以帮助您弄清“完成”和“正在做”的样子。如果你定义了“完成”的样子，你就可以将注意力和精力集中在做能让你“完成”的事情上。
According to Allen, these questions help you clarify what “done” and “doing” look like. If you define what “done” looks like, you can focus your attention and energy on doing the things that will get you to “done.”
写这本书是一项艰巨的任务——我花了数年时间来整理研究成果，并花了一年多的时间来撰写正文。“写这本书”不是一个行动——它是一个项目。我不可能一口气完成手稿，但有可能在不到一个小时的时间内写完这本书的一小部分。在我将本书分成明确定义的部分后，取得进步就容易多了，因为每个单独的任务都不那么繁重。
Writing this book was a massive undertaking—it took me years to compile the research and a little over a year to write the text. “Write the book” is not an action—it’s a project. There’s no way I could’ve finished the manuscript in one sitting, but it was possible to write a small section of the book in less than an hour. After I broke up the book into well-defined sections, it was much easier to make progress, since each individual task was less overwhelming.
为了避免让自己感到不知所措，请分别跟踪您的项目和任务。我是这样做的：我总是随身携带一个笔记本，里面有一张三乘五的索引卡。8卡片包含我正在进行的项目的简短列表。笔记本包含我的待办事项列表：将推进我的项目的下一步行动，我使用一个名为 Autofocus 的系统处理它，该系统由 Mark Forster 创建。9该系统帮助我利用我的直觉来确定我现在可以做些什么来取得进步。只要我的项目与我的目标相关联并与我喜欢的存在状态保持一致，我完成它们只是时间问题。
To keep yourself from feeling overwhelmed, track your projects and tasks separately. Here’s what I do: I always carry around a notebook that contains a three-by-five index card.8 The card contains a short list of my active projects. The notebook contains my to-do list: the Next Actions that will move my projects forward, which I process using a system called Autofocus, which was created by Mark Forster.9 The system helps me use my intuition to identify what I can do right now to make progress. As long as my projects are tied to my Goals and are aligned with my preferred States of Being, it’s only a matter of time before I complete them.
专注于完成下一步行动，您将完成整个项目。
Focus on completing the Next Action and you’ll complete the entire project.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/next-action/
外化
Externalization
文字是聚焦一个人思想的镜头。
Words are a lens to focus one’s mind.
—AYN RAND，哲学家，ATLAS 耸耸肩和源头的作者
—AYN RAND, PHILOSOPHER AND AUTHOR OF ATLAS SHRUGGED AND THE FOUNTAINHEAD
关于大脑运作方式的一个怪癖是，它处理来自大脑外部的信息比处理大脑内部的想法更好。
One of the quirks about how your mind works is that it handles information from outside your head better than the thoughts that are rattling around inside your head.
如果你曾经和私人教练或教练一起工作过，你就会明白我的意思。独自锻炼时，很容易听到脑中的小声音在说：“这很疼——你应该停下来，”即使继续锻炼会取得更好的效果。
If you’ve ever worked with a personal trainer or coach, you know what I mean. When exercising by yourself, it’s very easy to listen to the little voice inside your head that says, “This hurts—you should stop,” even if you’ll get better results by continuing.
当您与其他人一起工作时，小声音就会消失，因为在您的环境中有一个人鼓励您再给自己一点压力。结果，您得到了更好的锻炼。
When you’re working with someone else, the little voice goes away, since there’s a person in your Environment who’s encouraging you to push yourself just a little bit more. As a result, you get a better workout.
由于我们对环境中的刺激的反应比我们自己的内心想法更多，因此我们可以使用一种简单的方法来提高我们的工作效率——我们可以将我们的内部想法转化为我们的思想更适合使用的外部形式。
Since we respond more to stimuli in our Environment than our own internal thoughts, there’s a simple method we can use to improve our productivity—we can convert our internal thoughts into an external form our minds are better equipped to use.
外化以一种非常智能的方式利用我们的感知能力。通过将我们的内部思维过程转化为外部形式，外化使我们能够通过不同的渠道将信息重新输入我们自己的大脑，这使我们能够获得额外的认知资源，我们可以使用这些资源以不同的方式处理相同的信息。
Externalization takes advantage of our perceptual abilities in a very intelligent way. By converting our internal thought processes into an external form, Externalization gives us the ability to reinput information into our own brains via a different channel, which gives us access to additional cognitive resources we can use to process the same information in a different way.
有两种主要的方法可以将你的想法外化：写作和口语。写作（或绘画，如果你愿意）是捕捉想法、计划和任务的最佳方式。写作不仅让你能够以一种你以后可以参考的形式存储信息，它还让你的大脑有机会从不同的角度审视你所知道的。挑战那些在你的额叶中反复出现时看似无法克服的问题通常可以在将它们写到纸上后得到解决。
There are two primary ways to Externalize your thoughts: writing and speaking. Writing (or drawing, if you prefer) is the best way to capture ideas, plans, and tasks. Not only does writing give you the ability to store information in a form you can reference later, it gives your mind the opportunity to examine what you know from a different angle. Challenges and issues that seem insurmountable while they’re bouncing around in your frontal lobe can often be solved after putting them onto paper.
将您的想法记录在纸上可以更轻松地与他人分享，此外还可以将您的想法存档以供日后参考和查看。俗话说，“淡墨胜似忆”。经常使用的笔记本和日记本价值连城。
Capturing your ideas on paper makes them easier to share with others, in addition to archiving your thoughts for later reference and review. As the saying goes, “The palest ink is clearer than the fondest memory.” Notebooks and journals, regularly used, are worth their weight in gold.
对自己或对另一个人说话是另一种有效的外化方法。声音外化解释了为什么我们大多数人都有在与朋友或同事交谈时解决自己问题的经历。当你说完之后，你可能会对你的问题有更深入的了解——即使你的听众什么也没说。
Speaking—to yourself or to another person—is another effective method of Externalization. Vocal Externalization explains why most of us have had the experience of solving our own problems while talking with a friend or colleague. By the time you’re done talking, you’re likely to have more insight into your problem—even if your listener didn’t say a word.
声音外化的关键是找到愿意倾听的听众，并避免在您讨论问题时打断您。甚至自言自语或与无生命的物体交谈也会有所帮助：如果您能克服最初的尴尬，向橡皮鸭、泰迪熊、可动人偶或坐在桌上的其他拟人化物体解释您的问题可能会奏效。通常情况下，“橡皮鸭”问题更容易解决。
The key to vocal Externalization is to find an audience who is willing to listen and avoid interrupting you as you talk through an issue. Even talking to yourself or an inanimate object can help: explaining your problem to a rubber duck, teddy bear, action figure, or other anthropomorphic object sitting on your desk can work if you can get over the initial awkwardness. More often than not, “rubber ducking” the problem makes it easier to solve.
无论你选择将你的想法外化，不要把它们锁在你的脑海里。尝试不同的方法，找出最适合您的方法。为了帮助您在白天保持头脑清醒，请安排少量专门的时间进行外部化。清晨或傍晚最适合这个目的。
However you choose to Externalize your thoughts, don’t keep them locked up in your head. Experiment with different approaches to find which method works best for you. To help keep your mind clear during the day, schedule a small amount of dedicated time to Externalize. Early mornings or late evenings work best for this purpose.
不管你怎么做，你外化的越多，你的想法就会变得越清晰，你就会越快地朝着你的目标前进。
However you do it, the more you Externalize, the clearer your thoughts will become, and the faster you’ll make progress toward your goals.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/externalization/
自我启发
Self-Elicitation
在我听到我说的话之前，我怎么知道我在想什么？
How do I know what I think until I hear what I say?
——EM FORSTER，小说家和社会活动家
—E. M. FORSTER, NOVELIST AND SOCIAL ACTIVIST
如果您将外部化用作检查您的计划、目标和行动的工具，那么它是最有用的。以日记的形式记下当天的事件对于以后的回顾很有用，但是使用日记或知己作为解决问题的工具更有用。
Externalization is most useful if you use it as a tool to examine your plans, Goals, and actions. Jotting down the events of the day in a diary format is useful for later review, but using a journal or confidant as a problem-solving tool is even more useful.
自我启发是问自己问题，然后回答问题的做法。通过问自己好的问题（或与提出好的问题的人一起工作），您可以很快掌握重要的见解或产生新的想法。
Self-Elicitation is the practice of asking yourself questions, then answering them. By asking yourself good questions (or working with someone who asks good questions), you can grasp important insights or generate new ideas very quickly.
五重如何和五重为什么是自我启发的具体例子。通过问自己问题，您正在探索您没有考虑过的选项，并启动您的大脑以注意相关信息。
The Five-Fold How and Five-Fold Why are specific examples of Self-Elicitation. By asking yourself questions, you’re exploring options you didn’t consider and Priming your brain to notice related information.
在自我导向行为中， David L. Watson 和 Roland G. Tharp 解释了一种非常有用的自我提问技巧，您可以使用它来发现对您不利的行为背后的原因。ABC 方法（前因、行为、后果）是一组问题，当您注意到想要改变的行为时要问自己。
In Self-Directed Behavior, David L. Watson and Roland G. Tharp explain a very useful self-questioning technique you can use to discover the reasons behind behaviors that don’t serve you. The ABC Method (Antecedent, Behavior, Consequences) is a set of questions to ask yourself whenever you notice a behavior you want to change.
通过在日记中记录以下问题的答案，记录特定行为的发生时间，并记录这些行为的频率或持续时间，可以发现您的行为或思维过程中的模式。一旦了解了模式，就更容易改变行为。
By recording answers to the following questions in a journal, logging when specific behaviors occur, and noting the frequency or duration of those behaviors, it’s possible to discover patterns in your behavior or thought processes. Once you know the pattern, it’s easier to change the behavior.
前提
ANTECEDENT
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什么时候发生的？
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When did it happen?
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你和谁在一起？
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Whom were you with?
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你在做什么？
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What were you doing?
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当时你在哪里？
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Where were you?
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你对自己说什么？
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What were you saying to yourself?
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你有什么想法？
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What thoughts were you having?
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你有什么感受？
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What feelings were you having?
行为
BEHAVIOR
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你对自己说什么？
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What were you saying to yourself?
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你有什么想法？
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What thoughts did you have?
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你有什么感受？
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What feelings were you having?
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你在做什么动作？
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What actions were you performing?
结果
CONSEQUENCES
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结果怎么样了？
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What happened as a result?
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这是愉快的还是不愉快的？
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Was it pleasant or unpleasant?
当您不知道从哪里开始时，通常很难确定哪些问题很重要。解决办法很简单：问问自己，“关于这种情况，我能问自己的最佳问题是什么？” 这个元问题适用于所有情况，将帮助您生成一个待探索的相关问题的工作列表。有了问题的工作清单后，您可以跟进相关问题以帮助您找到答案，例如“我可以问谁？” “我能读什么？” 和“我可以尝试什么？”
When you don’t know where to begin, it’s often difficult to know with certainty which questions are important. The solution is simple: ask yourself, “What are the best questions I could ask myself about this situation?” This metaquestion applies in every situation and will help you generate a working list of relevant issues to explore. Once you have a working list of questions, you can follow up with related questions that will help you find answers, like “Who can I ask?” “What could I read?” and “What could I try?”
问自己好的问题可以帮助您找到好的答案。养成问自己好问题的习惯，你会惊讶于克服你所面临的挑战是多么容易。
Asking yourself good questions helps you discover good answers. Make it a Habit to ask yourself good questions and you’ll be surprised how easy it is to overcome the challenges you face.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/self-elicitation/
思想实验
Thought Experiment
能够清楚地提出问题是获得答案的三分之二。
To be able to ask a question clearly is two-thirds of the way to getting it answered.
——约翰·罗斯金，十九世纪艺术评论家和社会理论家
—JOHN RUSKIN, NINETEENTH-CENTURY ART CRITIC AND SOCIAL THEORIST
正如我们在心理模拟一节中讨论的那样，我们的大脑正试图预测未来。现在是时候学习如何有意识地模拟潜在的行动方案了。
As we discussed in the section on Mental Simulation, our minds are trying to predict the future. Now it’s time to learn how to simulate potential courses of action in an intentional way.
反事实——“如果……会怎样”——问题可以让您访问大脑的模拟能力。您可以将思维实验视为应用想象——您向您的大脑提出“如果”或“如果会发生什么”的问题，然后坐下来让您的大脑做它最擅长的事情。
Counterfactual—“what if”—questions allow you to access your brain’s simulation capabilities. You can think of Thought Experiments as applied imagination—you pose a “what if” or “what would happen if” question to your mind, then sit back and let your brain do what it does best.
根据你存储在记忆中的模式、联想和解释，你的大脑会产生它认为最有可能的结果。你所要做的就是暂停判断，提出问题，让你的思绪漫游，等待答案。
Based on the patterns, Associations, and Interpretations you have stored in memory, your brain will produce what it believes to be the most likely result. All you have to do is suspend judgment, pose the question, let your mind wander, and wait for the answer.
思想实验是我们最强大（但未得到充分利用）的实验之一能力。一个精心构建的思想实验可以让你“强迫”你的大脑运行你希望它运行的模拟，而不是等待你的大脑模拟一个潜在的行动过程。
Thought Experiments are one of our most powerful (and underused) capabilities. Instead of waiting for your brain to simulate a potential course of action, a well-constructed Thought Experiment allows you to “force” your brain to run the simulations you want it to run.
思想实验之所以有用，是因为它们具有灵活性：您可以想象任何您想要的东西，即使实际实验太昂贵或太冒险。您模拟的主题可以是任意的；您可以模拟的事物的唯一限制是您的想象力。如果您想模拟突然辞掉工作搬到大溪地会发生什么，没有什么能阻止您。您甚至可以模拟如果您生活在未来一万年或在木星上开店会发生什么。
Thought Experiments are useful because of their flexibility: you can imagine anything you want, even if an actual experiment would be too expensive or risky. The subject of your simulation can be arbitrary; the only limit to the things you can simulate is your imagination. If you want to simulate what would happen if you suddenly quit your job and moved to Tahiti, there’s nothing stopping you. You could even simulate what would happen if you lived ten thousand years in the future or set up shop on Jupiter.
思维实验可以帮助您发现您可能认为不存在的隐藏机会。当我在宝洁工作时，我经常梦想为自己工作并全日制攻读个人 MBA，但我一直认为这种可能性“一两年后”就会实现。一年后，仍然是“一两年后”。为自己工作是一个愉快的白日梦，但我认为在不检查可能性的情况下这是不现实的。
Thought Experiments can help you discover hidden opportunities you may have assumed weren’t available. While I was working at P&G, I often dreamed of working for myself and developing the Personal MBA full-time, but I always assumed this possibility was “a year or two away.” A year later, it was still “a year or two away.” Working for myself was a pleasant daydream, but I assumed it wasn’t realistic without examining the possibilities.
在我开始以更系统的方式使用思想实验后，情况发生了变化。2008 年 9 月出差时，我在笔记本上写了一个问题：“如果我在 11 月初离职，那必须是什么？” 我不认为这个问题是现实的，但它足够雄心勃勃，很有趣，所以我抑制了我的判断并无论如何模拟了这个问题。
That changed after I started using Thought Experiments in a more systematic way. While traveling on business in September of 2008, I wrote a question in my notebook: “What would have to be true if I left my job by early November?” I didn’t think the question was realistic, but it was ambitious enough to be interesting, so I Inhibited my judgment and simulated the question anyway.
当您运行思想实验时，您假设您正在模拟的事件或结束状态已经为真。当你为大脑提供一个人造目的地时，它会开始填补 A 点和 B 点之间的空白。当我在离开工作时运行模拟时，我假设它肯定会发生，然后弄清楚它是如何发生的将是可能的。
When you run a Thought Experiment, you assume the event or end state you’re simulating is already true. When you supply your mind with an artificial destination, it will start to fill in the blanks between point A and point B. When I ran the simulation on leaving my job, I assumed that it was definitely going to happen, then figured out how it would be possible.
当我运行模拟时，其他问题也出现了。个人 MBA 带来了多少收入？我需要有多少客户？我还会从事哪些其他项目，我需要带多少钱才能在经济上足够？当这些问题出现时，我尽我所能回答了它们。
As I ran the simulation, other questions presented themselves. How much revenue was coming in from the Personal MBA? How many clients would I need to have? What other projects would I work on, and how much money would I need to bring in to be financially Sufficient? As these questions presented themselves, I answered them as best I could.
当我完成思想实验时，我发现我有可能在那天离开宝洁公司，而不是“一两年后”。当我下周一回到工作岗位时，我辞职了。我在公司工作的最后一天是在我二十八岁生日前四天。
By the time I finished the Thought Experiment, I had discovered it was possible for me to leave my job at P&G that day, instead of “in a year or two.” When I returned to work the following Monday, I resigned. My last day of corporate work was four days before my twenty-eighth birthday.
根据我的经验，花在检查反事实和潜在行动上的时间绝不会浪费。思想实验不是假设你想要的东西不现实或不可能，而是让你弄清楚如何才能让你想要的东西成为现实。进行模拟后，您总会对做某事需要什么或为了使某事发挥作用需要什么条件有更深入的了解。
In my experience, time spent examining counterfactuals and potential actions is never wasted. Instead of assuming what you want isn’t realistic or possible, Thought Experiments allow you to figure out what it would take to make what you want real. After doing a simulation, you’ll always come away with a greater understanding of what it takes to do something or what would need to be true in order to make something work.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/thought-experiment/
帕金森定律
Parkinson’s Law
它被称为“工作分解结构”，因为剩余的工作会增加，直到出现分解为止，除非您对其实施某种结构。
It’s called a “Work Breakdown Structure” because the Work remaining will grow until you have a Breakdown, unless you enforce some Structure on it.
—David AKIN，马里兰大学航空航天工程教授
—DAVID AKIN, PROFESSOR OF AEROSPACE ENGINEERING, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
1955年，Cyril Northcote Parkinson根据他在英国公务员部门的经历，在《经济学人》杂志上写了一篇幽默的文章。在那篇文章中，帕金森提出了后来成为他同名定律的内容：“工作会扩展以填补完成它的可用时间。”
In 1955, Cyril Northcote Parkinson wrote a humorous essay in the Economist based on his experience in the British civil service. In that essay, Parkinson proposed what became his eponymous law: “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.”
如果某件事必须在一年内完成，它就会在一年内完成。如果下周必须做某事，下周就会完成。如果明天必须做某事，明天就会完成。我们根据自己有多少时间来计划，当截止日期临近时，我们开始做出选择和权衡，做必须做的事情，以便在截止日期前完成任务。
If something must be done in a year, it’ll be done in a year. If something must be done next week, it’ll be done next week. If something must be done tomorrow, it’ll be done tomorrow. We plan based on how much time we have, and when the deadline approaches, we start to make choices and Trade-offs to do what must be done to complete the task by the deadline.
帕金森定律不应被视为全权设定不合理的最后期限。所有项目都需要时间；你不可能在一天内建造一座摩天大楼或在一周内建造一座工厂。项目越复杂，花费的时间就越多——在一定程度上。
Parkinson’s Law should not be considered carte blanche to set unreasonable deadlines. All projects take time; you can’t build a skyscraper in a day or a factory in a week. The more complex the project, the more time it takes—up to a point.
帕金森定律最好用作思想实验问题。如果您在非常紧迫的时间范围内完成项目，会是什么样子？如果你必须在一天内建造一座摩天大楼，你会怎么做？以反事实的方式回答问题，您会发现可用于在更短时间内完成工作的技术或方法。
Parkinson’s Law is best used as a Thought Experiment question. What would it look like if you finished the project on a very aggressive time scale? If you had to build a skyscraper in a day, how would you go about doing it? Answer the question the way you would a counterfactual and you’ll discover techniques or approaches you can use to get the work done in less time.
宜家创始人 Ingvar Kamprad 曾说过：“如果你将一天的时间分成 10 分钟的增量，并且尽可能少地浪费这 10 分钟的增量，你会惊讶于你能完成什么” 对于小任务，使用我所说的 Ingvar 规则——假设每项任务完成时间不超过 10 分钟，然后开始。这包括会议和电话：出于某种原因，会议的默认时间段是一个小时，无论您是否需要。如果您假设会议的基本时间单位是十分钟，您通常可以完成同样多的事情，甚至更多。Ingvar 的规则是一个思想实验——如果你只有十分钟的时间来完成一些有用的事情，你会怎么做？弄清楚你在那段时间内可以完成什么，然后去做。
Ingvar Kamprad, the founder of IKEA, once said, “If you split your day into ten-minute increments, and you try to waste as few of those ten-minute increments as possible, you’ll be amazed at what you can get done.” For small tasks, use what I call Ingvar’s Rule—assume each task will take no more than ten minutes to complete, then begin. This includes meetings and phone calls: for some reason, the default time period for meetings is an hour, whether you need it or not. Often you can get just as much, if not more, done if you assume that the basic unit of time for a meeting is ten minutes. Ingvar’s Rule is a Thought Experiment—what would you do if you only had ten minutes to get something useful done? Figure out what you can accomplish in that period of time, then do it.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/parkinsons-law/
世界末日情景
Doomsday Scenario
远看很大，近看根本没那么大。
What looks large from a distance, close up ain’t never that big.
——鲍勃·迪伦，获得诺贝尔奖的作曲家和音乐家
—BOB DYLAN, NOBEL PRIZE–WINNING SONGWRITER AND MUSICIAN
如果您处于威胁锁定状态，则很难完成任何事情 - 您的思想全神贯注于威胁，想象着适合一部糟糕的恐怖电影的场景。
If you’re in Threat Lockdown, it’s hard to get anything done—your mind is fixated on the threat, imagining scenes that would fit right into a bad horror movie.
假设你正在考虑创业，但每当你想自己创业时，你就会焦虑不安。您想象辞掉工作，脑海中出现投入大量资金建造无法运作的东西、破产和无家可归的画面。你想象你将无法找到另一份工作，每个人都会恨你，你将在河边的一辆面包车里度过余生。
Let’s say you’re thinking of starting a business, but you lock up with anxiety whenever you think about striking out on your own. You imagine quitting your job, and your mind pictures investing a lot of money building something that doesn’t work, going bankrupt, and becoming homeless. You imagine you won’t be able to get another job, everyone will hate you, and you’ll spend the rest of your days living in a van down by the river.
如果你的大脑反应过度，你如何鼓励你的大脑停止试图保护你？
How do you encourage your brain to stop trying to protect you if it’s overreacting?
世界末日场景是一种思想实验，您假设所有可能出错的事情都会出错。如果你没有按时完成项目怎么办？如果你的计划行不通怎么办？如果你失去了一切怎么办？如果他们都笑话你怎么办？
A Doomsday Scenario is a Thought Experiment where you assume everything that can go wrong does go wrong. What if you don’t complete the project on time? What if your plan doesn’t work? What if you lose everything? What if they all laugh at you?
世界末日情景悲观是有原因的——它们帮助你意识到，在大多数情况下，你会没事的。穴居人综合症 使我们古老的大脑过于戏剧化，因此他们认为每一个潜在威胁都是生死攸关的情况。我们压力如此之大的原因是我们的大脑将失去资源、地位下降或被拒绝视为对我们生存的威胁。这在很久以前可能是正确的，但现在不是了。现在，您每天可能会赔钱、搞砸或被拒绝数百次，并且活着讲述这个故事。
Doomsday Scenarios are pessimistic for a reason—they help you realize that, in most circumstances, you’re going to be okay. Caveman Syndrome makes our ancient brains overdramatic, so they assume every potential threat is a life-or-death situation. The reason we get so stressed out is that our brains Interpret losing resources, diminishing in status, or being rejected as threats to our survival. That may have been true a long time ago, but it’s not anymore. Now you can lose money, screw up, or be rejected hundreds of times a day—and live to tell the tale.
当你审视自己最害怕的事情时，你会发现事情并没有你担心的那么糟糕。创造一个世界末日场景相当于给一个害怕床底下的怪物的小孩一个手电筒——通过阐明他们恐惧的主题，他们意识到没有什么可怕的。
When you examine your worst fears, you’ll discover that things won’t be as bad as you fear. Creating a Doomsday Scenario is the equivalent of giving a small child who is afraid of monsters under their bed a flashlight—by shedding some light on the subject of their fears, they realize there’s nothing to be afraid of.
通过外化和定义你最害怕的事情，你暴露了它们的本来面目：非理性的过度反应。通常情况下，你会发现你害怕一些无关紧要的事情。即使出现问题，也不会像你想象的那么糟糕。一旦你意识到你不会死，你就可以自由地做比以前敢做的更多的事情。
By Externalizing and defining your worst fears, you’re exposing them as what they are: irrational overreactions. More often than not, you’ll discover that you were scared of something that doesn’t really matter. Even if something goes wrong, it’s not going to be as bad you think. As soon as you realize you’re not going to die, you’re free to do much more than you once dared to do.
一旦你想象了你的世界末日场景，你就可以开始做一些事情来改善最坏的情况。如果您正在创业，您可以开始定义实际风险并制定减轻风险的计划。与其成为恐惧的受害者，不如建设性地利用它们。
Once you’ve imagined your Doomsday Scenario, you can start doing things to improve upon the worst case. If you’re starting a business, you can begin defining the actual risks and make plans to mitigate them. Instead of being a victim of your fears, you can use them constructively.
构建你的世界末日情景，你可以让你过度戏剧化的大脑与你一起工作，而不是与你作对。
Construct your Doomsday Scenario and you can make your overdramatic brain work with you instead of against you.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/doomsday-scenario/
过度自视倾向
Excessive Self-Regard Tendency
自从 1961 年以来我就没有犯过错误，当时我认为我犯了一个错误。
I haven’t been wrong since 1961, when I thought I made a mistake.
——鲍勃·哈德森，政治家（署名）
—BOB HUDSON, POLITICIAN (ATTRIBUTED)
每隔几个月，世界各地的电视观众就会畏缩，而美国偶像的妄想选手向世界展示他们的歌声有多么糟糕。
Every few months, television viewers around the world cringe while delusional contestants on American Idol show the world how horrible they are at singing.
这场奇观最引人入胜的部分不是音聋的史诗般的表现——而是许多试镜的人认为他们是有才华的歌手。对比是惊人的——怎么会有人在如此明显的事情上犯如此可怕的错误呢？
The most fascinating part of this spectacle isn’t the epic display of tone deafness—it’s the fact that many of the people auditioning believe they’re talented singers. The contrast is astounding—how could anyone be so horribly wrong about something so obvious?
过度自尊倾向是高估自己能力的自然倾向，尤其是当你对手头的事情经验不足时。对我们的能力持乐观态度是有好处的——它增加了我们尝试新事物的可能性。这就是新手有时如何成就伟大的事情——他们在意识到他们的目标有多么危险或困难之前就做了这些事情。
Excessive Self-Regard Tendency is the natural tendency to overestimate your own abilities, particularly if you have little experience with the matter at hand. Being optimistic about our capabilities has benefits—it increases the probability we’ll try something new. That’s how novices sometimes accomplish great things—they do them before realizing how risky or difficult their objective was.
史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克与史蒂夫·乔布斯共同创立了苹果电脑公司，他制造了世界上第一台个人电脑。以下是他对这段经历的评价：“我以前从来没有做过这些事情，我从来没有组装过一台电脑，我从来没有创办过一家公司，我不知道自己在做什么。但我打算这样做，所以我做到了。” 沃兹不知道自己在做什么，但他认为自己可以，所以他做到了。
Steve Wozniak, who cofounded Apple Computer with Steve Jobs, built the world’s first personal computer. Here’s what he had to say about the experience: “I never had done any of this stuff before, I never built a computer, I never built a company, I had no idea what I was doing. But I was going to do it, and so I did it.” Woz didn’t know what he was doing, but he thought he could, so he did.
我们与生俱来的自信也需要付出代价——有害的自欺欺人的可能性。
Our natural confidence also comes with a cost—the potential for harmful self-delusion.
如果你对手头的主题了解不多，过度自视倾向会更加明显。一个人越无能，他们就越不会意识到自己无能。一个人知道的越多，他们自我评估自己能力的能力就越强，他们就越有可能怀疑自己的能力，直到他们有足够的经验知道自己已经掌握了这门学科。
The Excessive Self-Regard Tendency is even more pronounced if you don’t know much about the subject at hand. The more incompetent a person is, the less they realize they’re incompetent. The more a person knows, the better their ability to self-assess their capabilities, and the more likely they are to doubt their capabilities until they have enough experience to know they’ve mastered the subject.
根据康奈尔大学的大卫邓宁和贾斯汀克鲁格的说法，查尔斯达尔文的著名讽刺“无知比知识更容易产生自信”确实是正确的。他们对“邓宁-克鲁格效应”的解释如下：
According to David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University, Charles Darwin’s famous quip “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge” is literally true. They explain the “Dunning-Kruger effect” as follows:
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不称职的人往往会高估自己的技能水平。
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Incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own level of skill.
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无能的人无法识别他人的真正技能。
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Incompetent individuals fail to recognize genuine skill in others.
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无能的人无法认识到他们的不足之处的极端性。
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Incompetent individuals fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy.
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如果他们可以通过培训来提高自己的技能水平，这些人就可以认识到并承认他们之前缺乏技能。
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If they can be trained to improve their own skill level, these individuals can recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill.
“无意识地无能”的人并不知道自己无能——他们对这个主题知之甚少，以致于无法充分意识到自己知之甚少。这就是为什么你遇到的每一位理发师和出租车司机都是经济和国际政治方面的专家。
People who are “unconsciously incompetent” don’t know they’re incompetent—they know so little about the subject that they can’t fully appreciate how little they know. That’s why every barber and taxi driver you meet is an expert on the economy and international politics.
一旦你对一门新学科了解得更多一些，你就会变得“有意识地无能”——你知道你不知道自己在做什么。因此，大多数人在对某个主题了解得更多后，对自己的能力变得不那么自信——知识越多，就越容易充分认识到自己知识和能力的局限性。
Once you learn a bit more about a new subject, you become “consciously incompetent”—you know you don’t know what you’re doing. As a result, most individuals become less confident in their abilities after learning more about a topic—more knowledge makes it easier to fully appreciate the limits of their knowledge and capabilities.
培养“有意识的能力”——知道自己在做什么的状态——需要经验、知识和实践。当你有意识地胜任时，你就会重拾信心：你知道自己知识的局限性，并且可以公正地评估自己的能力。
Developing “conscious competence”—the state of knowing what you’re doing—takes experience, knowledge, and practice. When you’re consciously competent, you regain your confidence: you know the limits of your knowledge and can assess your abilities in an unbiased way.
一定程度的谦逊是一种宝贵的自我纠正品质。过度自信有时会产生伟大，但这是一个高风险的赌注——没有指导，你更有可能发现自己处于糟糕的境地。培养适度的谦逊可以让你避免自以为无所不知，然后痛苦地发现并非如此。
A certain amount of humility is a valuable self-correcting quality. Overconfidence sometimes produces greatness, but it’s a high-risk bet—without guidance, you’re far more likely to find yourself in a bad situation. Cultivating a healthy amount of humility can keep you from assuming you know everything there is to know about everything, then painfully discovering otherwise.
过度自视倾向是普遍存在的（如果您的第一个冲动是认为自己对此免疫，请务必小心），因此重要的是要有值得信赖的顾问，如果您犯了错误，他们会不怕告诉您。通过过度自视倾向让自己陷入困境的最简单方法之一是估计最后期限——过度自信是计划谬误的主要原因。当我同意写这本书时，我认为这需要大约六个月的时间——但我以前从未写过一本书，所以我不知道。我的几位更有经验的朋友和顾问建议说这可能需要一年时间，我很高兴我听了——他们是对的。
The Excessive Self-Regard Tendency is universal (be very wary if your first impulse is to think you’re immune to it), so it’s important to have trusted advisers who aren’t afraid to tell you if you’re making a mistake. One of the easiest ways to get yourself in trouble via the Excessive Self-Regard Tendency is estimating deadlines—overconfidence is a major cause of the Planning Fallacy. When I agreed to write this book, I thought it would take about six months—but I’d never written a book before, so I had no idea. Several of my more experienced friends and advisers counseled that it would probably take a year, and I’m very glad I listened—they were right.
我们所有人都容易高估自己的能力。用唯唯诺诺的人填充你的团队是致命的，因为总是同意你的人无法帮助你纠正这种倾向——总是支持你的决定的人不会阻止你犯大错误。
All of us are prone to overestimating our abilities. Padding your team with yes-men is deadly because people who always agree with you can’t help you correct for this tendency—people who always support your decisions won’t prevent you from making huge mistakes.
与那些在您做出有问题的假设或走错路时不怕告诉您的人建立关系——他们确实是宝贵的朋友。
Cultivate relationships with people who aren’t afraid to tell you when you’re making questionable assumptions or going down the wrong path—they’re valuable friends indeed.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/excessive-self-regard-tendency/
确认偏差
Confirmation Bias
给你惹麻烦的不是你不知道的事情。这是你肯定知道的，但事实并非如此。
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
——马克吐温，伟大的美国小说家
—MARK TWAIN, GREAT AMERICAN NOVELIST
弄清楚你是否正确的最好方法之一是寻找能证明你错了的信息。
One of the best ways to figure out whether or not you’re right is to look for information that proves you’re wrong.
确认偏差是人们普遍倾向于注意支持他们结论的信息而忽略不支持他们结论的信息。没有人愿意知道他们做了一个错误的决定，所以我们倾向于过滤我们关注的信息。
Confirmation Bias is the general tendency for people to pay Attention to information that supports their conclusions and ignore information that doesn’t. No one likes to learn they’ve made a bad decision, so we tend to filter the information we pay Attention to.
观点或信念越坚定，我们就越忽视挑战该立场的信息来源。这就是为什么你不会发现许多政治保守派阅读自由派新闻来源，反之亦然——他们已经知道他们不同意，所以何必呢？这使得双方的立场都越来越极端，因为双方都不寻求可能挑战他们信念的信息。
The more strongly held the opinion or belief, the more we ignore sources of information that challenge that position. That’s why you won’t find many political conservatives reading liberal sources of news, and vice versa—they already know they don’t agree, so why bother? This makes both positions more and more extreme, since neither side seeks information that may challenge their convictions.
注意否定证据是困难的——这意味着寻找你可能错的原因，而我们通常讨厌犯错。寻求反证证据要么会告诉你方法的错误，要么会提供额外的证据来证明你的立场是正确的——只要你暂停判断足够长的时间以从经验中吸取教训。
Paying Attention to disconfirming evidence is difficult—it means looking for reasons you might be wrong, and we usually hate to be wrong. Seeking disconfirming evidence will either show you the error of your ways or provide additional evidence for why your position is correct—as long as you suspend judgment long enough to learn from the experience.
“地平论者”是这种风险的一个生动例子：有很多人出于各种原因相信地球是平的，而不是球体。在 2018 年的纪录片Behind the Curve中，电影制作人记录了两个真正的信徒进行一项旨在证明地球是平的实验。不出所料，结果表明地球确实是圆的。他们的反应？
“Flat Earthers” are a dramatic example of this risk: there is a significant community of people who, for various reasons, believe the Earth is flat, not a spherical body. In the 2018 documentary Behind the Curve, filmmakers record two true believers as they conduct an experiment intended to prove the Earth is flat. In an unsurprising turn of events, the results indicate that the Earth is indeed round. Their response?
哇，这是个问题。. . 我们显然不愿意接受[结果]，所以我们开始寻找反驳它的方法。. . 10
Wow, that’s kind of a problem . . . We obviously were not willing to accept [the results], and so we started looking for ways to disprove it . . .10
寻找反证证据会让人感到不舒服，但如果您想加深对世界运作方式的理解，这是必不可少的。支付中注意与您当前的假设或信念相冲突的信息可以带来好处并防止出现重大错误。如果没有足够多的证据可以改变你的想法，那么就没有什么可以将你的信念束缚于现实。
Looking for disconfirming evidence is uncomfortable, but it’s essential if you want to improve your understanding of how the world works. Paying Attention to information that conflicts with your current assumptions or beliefs can pay dividends and prevent major errors. If there’s no amount of evidence capable of changing your mind, there’s nothing tethering your beliefs to reality.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/confirmation-bias/
事后偏见
Hindsight Bias
完成每一天并完成它。你已经做了你能做的。毫无疑问，一些错误和荒谬的事情悄悄发生了；尽快忘记它们。明天又是新的一天；好好开始，从容不迫，精神振奋，不要被你老一套的胡说八道所困扰。
Finish each day and be done with it. You have done what you could. Some blunders and absurdities no doubt crept in; forget them as soon as you can. Tomorrow is a new day; begin it well and serenely and with too high a spirit to be encumbered with your old nonsense.
——拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生，十九世纪散文家和诗人
—RALPH WALDO EMERSON, NINETEENTH-CENTURY ESSAYIST AND POET
当你意识到自己犯了一个错误时，你有什么感觉？
How do you feel when you realize that you’ve made a mistake?
后见之明偏见是一种自然倾向，因为你“应该知道”的事情而自责。如果你丢了工作，你“早该知道它来了”。如果你持有的某只股票的价格一夜之间下跌了 80%，你“应该卖掉它”。如果你推出了一款产品但没有人购买，你“早该知道它行不通”。
Hindsight Bias is the natural tendency to blame yourself for things you “should have known.” If you lose your job, you “should have known it was coming.” If the price of a particular stock you own drops 80 percent overnight, you “should have sold it.” If you launch a Product and no one buys it, you “should have known it wouldn’t work.”
胡扯。如果你那时就知道你现在所知道的，你就不会做你所做的事。
Baloney. If you knew then what you know now, you wouldn’t have done what you did.
你所做的每一个决定都将基于不完整的信息——我们必须使用解释来填补空白。因为你不是无所不知的，所以当你评估你的行动的结果时，你总是会比你做出决定时拥有更多的信息。
Every decision you ever make will be based on incomplete information—we have to use Interpretation to fill in the blanks. Since you’re not omniscient, you’ll always have more information when you evaluate the results of your actions than you had when you made the decision.
因此，如果事情没有按照您的预期发展，您很容易觉得自己很愚蠢。重要的是要认识到这些感觉是不合理的——你的决定是基于你当时掌握的最佳信息，现在你无法改变它们。
As a result, it’s very easy to feel stupid if things don’t turn out the way you expected. It’s important to realize that these feelings are irrational—your decisions were based on the best information you had at the time, and there’s nothing you can do now to change them.
不要为你“应该看到”或“应该做”的事情感到难过。改变过去不在你的控制点之内，所以把精力浪费在自我怀疑上是没有意义的，想知道可能会发生什么。如果你判断自己或他人不知道不可知的事情，事后偏见就会变得具有破坏性。
Don’t feel bad about things that you “should have seen” or “should have done.” Changing the past is outside of your Locus of Control, so there’s no sense in wasting energy on self-doubt, wondering what might have been. Hindsight Bias becomes destructive if you judge yourself or others for not knowing the unknowable.
俗话说，“后见之明是 20/20”。以建设性的眼光重新解释你过去的错误，并将你的精力集中在你现在可以做的事情上，以朝着积极的方向前进。
As the saying goes, “Hindsight is 20/20.” Reinterpret your past mistakes in a constructive light and focus your energy on what you can do right now to move in a positive direction.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/hindsight-bias/
性能负载
Performance Load
如果不加以控制，工作就会流向有能力的人，直到他淹没。
If not controlled, work will flow to the competent man until he submerges.
—查尔斯·博伊尔，前美国国会国家航空航天局 (NASA) 联络员
—CHARLES BOYLE, FORMER US CONGRESSIONAL LIAISON FOR THE NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION (NASA)
忙碌总比无聊好，但是太忙可能对你自己没有好处。
Being busy is better than being bored, but it’s possible to be too busy for your own good.
性能负载是一个概念，它解释了当您有太多事情要做时会发生什么。超过某个点，一个人必须完成的任务越多，他们在所有这些任务上的表现就会下降得越多。
Performance Load is a concept that explains what happens when you have too many things to do. Above a certain point, the more tasks a person has to do, the more their performance on all of those tasks decreases.
想象一下杂耍保龄球瓶。如果你技术娴熟，你可以同时玩三四个而不会出错。必须同时处理的图钉越多，您就越有可能犯错并丢掉它们。
Imagine juggling bowling pins. If you’re skilled, you may be able to juggle three or four without making a mistake. The more pins that must be juggled at once, the more likely you are to make a mistake and drop them all.
如果您想提高工作效率，就必须设定限制。在数十个项目中兼顾数百个活动任务是不可持续的：您冒着失败、工作不佳和倦怠的风险。记住帕金森定律：如果你不限制你的可用时间，你的工作量就会增加。如果你不划清界限，工作会消耗你所有的能量，你就会精疲力竭。
If you want to be productive, you must set limits. Juggling hundreds of active tasks across scores of projects is not sustainable: you’re risking failure, subpar work, and burnout. Remember Parkinson’s Law: if you don’t set a limit on your available time, your work will expand to fill it all. If you don’t draw the line somewhere, work will consume all of your energy, and you’ll burn out.
限制总是有后果的——如果你不准备处理后果，那它就不是限制。如果你的经理希望你每周工作 7 天、每天工作 20 小时，通过限制你的工作时间来拒绝他们可能会让你失去工作。以这种速度工作是不现实的，但如果你不愿意接受失去工作的可能性，你就没有设定限制。
Limits always have consequences—if you’re not prepared to handle the consequences, it’s not a limit. If you’re working for a manager who expects you to work twenty hours a day, seven days a week, telling them no by setting limits on your working hours may cost you your job. Working that pace is unrealistic, but if you’re not willing to accept the possibility of losing the job, you haven’t set the limit.
为了处理意外情况，您必须有计划外的时间来响应新的输入。许多现代企业的默认思维模式是“停机”是低效和浪费的——工人应该一直很忙。这种理念忽略了处理总是会发生的意外事件的必要性。每个人一天只有那么多时间，如果您的日程排得满满当当，总是很难跟上新的和意想不到的时间和精力需求。
In order to handle the unexpected, you must have unscheduled time to respond to new inputs. The default mind-set of many modern businesses is that “downtime” is inefficient and wasteful—workers should be busy all the time. This philosophy ignores the necessity of handling unexpected events, which always occur. Everyone only has so many hours in a day, and if your agenda is booked solid, it’ll always be difficult to keep up with new and unexpected demands on your time and energy.
您无法始终以 110% 的能力完成工作——使用四种完成方法来消除、推迟或委派对绩效负荷有贡献的边际价值工作。通过保留一些容量，您将准备好立即处理最重要的任务。
You can’t perform at 110 percent of your capacity at all times—use the Four Methods of Completion to eliminate, defer, or delegate marginally valuable work that contributes to Performance Load. By keeping some capacity in reserve, you’ll be ready to handle the Most Important Tasks immediately.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/performance-load/
能量循环
Energy Cycles
我们都有思考更有效的时候，也有根本不应该思考的时候。
We all have times when we think more effectively, and times when we should not be thinking at all.
——丹尼尔·科恩，儿童作家
—DANIEL COHEN, CHILDREN’S AUTHOR
这是“时间管理”的问题：时间不是需要管理的。无论你选择做什么，时间都会过去。
Here’s the problem with “time management”: time is not what needs to be managed. No matter what you choose to do, time will pass.
时间管理系统的隐含假设是每个小时都是可替代的——等同于任何其他小时。事实并非如此：人人生而平等，但绝对不是所有时间。
The implicit assumption of time-management systems is that every hour is fungible—equivalent to any other. Nothing could be further from the truth: all people are created equal, but all hours are most definitely not.
一整天，您的能量水平上下循环。你的身体在白天有自然的节奏，我称之为能量循环。大多数人都熟悉二十四小时的昼夜节律，它在早上叫醒你，在晚上让你感到疲倦。鲜为人知的是九十分钟的超电节奏，吉姆·洛尔和托尼·施瓦茨在《全力投入的力量》中对此进行了描述。
Throughout the day, your energy level cycles up and down. Your body has natural rhythms during the day, which I call Energy Cycles. Most people are familiar with the twenty-four-hour circadian rhythm, which wakes you up in the morning and makes you feel tired at night. Lesser known is the ninety-minute ultradian rhythm, which is described in The Power of Full Engagement by Jim Loehr and Tony Schwartz.
超电节律会影响全身荷尔蒙的流动。当您的精力旺盛时，您就能够集中精力并取得很多成就。当它处于下风期时，您的身心想要做的就是休息和恢复。白天的这些能量变化并没有什么异常，但我们常常表现得好像处于下风期是某种需要解决的问题。
The ultradian rhythm influences the flow of hormones throughout your body. When your energy is on an upswing, you’re capable of focusing deeply and getting a lot accomplished. When it’s on a downswing, all your mind and body want to do is rest and recover. There’s nothing abnormal about these changes in energy during the day, but we often act as though being on a downswing is somehow a problem that needs to be fixed.
如今，尝试“破解”这个循环以通过以下方式完成更多工作很流行少休息。在竞争激烈的工作场所，试图不间断地工作 8 到 12 小时的情况并不少见。我们大多数人都试图用大剂量的糖和咖啡因来超频我们的大脑。有些人甚至诉诸于滥用处方药或非法药物来延长或加快工作时间。
Nowadays, it’s popular to try to “hack” this cycle to get more done by resting less. Attempting to work eight to twelve hours without a break is not uncommon in competitive workplaces. Most of us try to overclock our brains with large doses of sugar and caffeine. Some people even resort to abusing prescription or illegal drugs to work a little bit longer or faster.
像所有生物有机体一样，人类需要休息和恢复才能达到最佳表现。休息一下并不是懒惰或软弱的表现——这是对人类基本需求的一种认识。注意您的自然能量循环将帮助您在很长一段时间内保持最佳状态。
Like all biological organisms, humans need to rest and recover for peak performance. Taking a break isn’t a sign of laziness or weakness—it’s a recognition of a fundamental human need. Paying attention to your natural Energy Cycle will help you perform at your best over long periods of time.
这里有四种与你的身体一起工作而不是对抗它的简单方法：
Here are four simple ways to work with your body instead of against it:
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学习你的模式。使用笔记本或日历记录您在一天中不同时段的能量消耗，以及您的饮食情况。如果你这样做几天，你会注意到你的能量如何起伏的模式，让你计划你未来的工作。11
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Learn your patterns. Use a notebook or calendar to track how much energy you have during different parts of the day, as well as what you’re eating and drinking. If you do this for a few days, you’ll notice patterns in how your energy waxes and wanes, allowing you to plan your future work.11
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最大化您的高峰周期。当您处于上升周期时，您可以取得很多成就，因此请计划您的一天以利用这种能量。如果您正在从事创造性工作，请在上升周期中抽出三到四个小时的时间来完成它。如果您的工作包括参加很多会议，请在上行周期中安排最重要的会议。
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Maximize your peak cycles. When you’re in an up cycle, you’re capable of getting a lot accomplished, so plan your day to take advantage of that energy. If you’re doing creative work, carve out a three- to four-hour block of time during an up cycle to get it done. If your work consists of attending a lot of meetings, plan the most important meetings during the up cycle.
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休息一下。当您处于低迷周期时，最好休息一下，而不是试图通过它来提供动力。休息和恢复不是可有可无的——如果你现在不休息，你的身体会迫使你晚些时候休息，要么骑自行车的时间比平时长，要么生病。在下行周期中，散步、冥想或小睡 20 分钟。在下行周期放松可以恢复你的能量，让你充分利用下一个上行周期。
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Take a break. When you’re in a down cycle, it’s better to rest than attempt to power through it. Rest and recovery are not optional—if you don’t rest now, your body will force you to rest later, either by cycling down longer than usual or by getting sick. During a down cycle, go for a walk, meditate, or take a twenty-minute nap. Relaxing on the down cycle can restore your energy, allowing you to take full advantage of the next up cycle.
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充足的睡眠。睡眠不足会导致下行周期延长，从而妨碍完成工作。为确保您每晚都能获得充足的睡眠，请将定时器设置为在您理想的上床睡眠时间前一小时响起。当定时器响起时，关闭电脑和/或电视，完成你的晚间例程，做一个一杯不含咖啡因的茶，花点时间读一本你喜欢的书。当你的阅读理解能力开始下降时，你就会知道该睡觉了。
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Get enough sleep. Sleep deprivation results in a prolonged down cycle, which gets in the way of getting things done. To ensure you get enough sleep each evening, set a timer to go off an hour before you’d ideally be in bed sleeping. When the timer goes off, turn off the computer and/or TV, go through your evening routine, make a cup of noncaffeinated tea, and spend some time with a book you enjoy. When your reading comprehension starts to go down, you’ll know it’s time for bed.
白天注意您的能量循环将帮助您充分利用可用的时间。充分利用你的上升周期并在下降周期中休息，你会惊讶于你一天能完成的事情。
Paying attention to your Energy Cycles during the day will help you get the most out of the time you have available. Take maximum advantage of your up cycles and rest on your down cycles, and you’ll be amazed at what you can accomplish in a day.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/energy-cycles/
压力与恢复
Stress and Recovery
只有那些愿意冒险走得太远的人，才有可能发现一个人能走多远。
Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.
—TS 艾略特，诗人和剧作家
—T. S. ELIOT, POET AND PLAYWRIGHT
在我大学的最后一个学期——大约在我创建个人 MBA 的时候——我把自己逼到了崩溃的边缘。
During my last semester of college—around the time I created the Personal MBA—I pushed myself to the breaking point.
我在三个科目中选修了 22 个学分的课程：商业信息系统、房地产和哲学。我上的每一节课都有一些期末考试之外的顶点项目。我选修的课程中有两门是研究生级别的，每门课程都需要一篇关于复杂主题的二十多页论文才能通过。在可用的时间内我有太多的工作要做。
I was taking twenty-two credit hours of classes across three subjects: business information systems, real estate, and philosophy. Every class I took had some kind of capstone project on top of the final exam. Two of the courses I was taking were at the graduate level, and each required a twenty-plus-page paper on a complex topic to pass. I had far too much work to do in the time available.
到本季度的最后两周，我完全崩溃了：睡眠不足、精疲力竭、筋疲力尽。一切都按时完成了，但工作量让我付出了代价，毕业后我花了几周的时间才完全康复。
By the last two weeks of the quarter, I was an absolute wreck: sleep deprived, exhausted, and burned out. Everything got done on time, but the workload took its toll, and it took me a few weeks of doing nothing after graduation to fully recover.
尽管这并不愉快，但我很高兴我找到了我的突破点。原因如下：现在我知道我能做多少，多少就太多了。我更了解我的身心如何应对压力，并且我能够在事情失控之前更好地识别承受过多的警告信号。
Even though it wasn’t pleasant, I’m glad I found my breaking point. Here’s why: now I know how much I’m capable of doing and how much is too much. I know more about how my mind and body react to stress, and I’m better able to identify the warning signs of taking on too much before things get out of hand.
结果，我学会了让自己以大约 90% 的容量运行，这足以完成很多工作而不会筋疲力尽。在任何给定时间，我正在写作、咨询和从事一些有趣的副项目。注意压力和恢复确保我不会承担太多的事情。了解我的突破点让我更容易知道什么时候该推，什么时候该放慢速度。
As a result, I’ve learned to keep myself running at about 90 percent capacity, which is enough to get a lot done without burning out. At any given time, I’m writing, consulting, and working on a few interesting side projects. Paying attention to Stress and Recovery ensures that I don’t take on too much to handle. Learning my breaking point has made it much easier to know when to push and when to slow down.
在您决定突破自己的极限之前，您不可能知道自己的能力有多大。只要您通过将实验限制在不会杀死您或造成永久性损害的事物上来保持安全，您就可以通过将自己伸展到极限来了解很多关于您如何工作的知识。您获得的知识将帮助您在未来做出更好的选择，即承担哪些项目以及承担多少项目。
It’s impossible to know how much you’re capable of until you decide to push your limits. As long as you stay safe by limiting your experimentation to things that won’t kill you or do permanent damage, you can learn a lot about how you work by stretching yourself to the limit. The knowledge you gain will help you make better choices in the future about which projects to take on and how much is too much.
也就是说，我们的身体不是设计为始终以最大容量运行的机器。很容易陷入这样的陷阱，将你的输出与你自己的理想化版本进行比较，你可以在一天内建造罗马，然后将建造中国长城作为一个有趣的副项目。如果那是你对个人效能的看法，那么你总会达不到要求。
That said, our bodies are not machines that are designed to operate at maximum capacity at all times. It’s easy to fall into the trap of comparing your output to an idealized version of yourself who can build Rome in a day, then build the Great Wall of China as a fun side project. If that’s your vision of personal effectiveness, you’ll always come up short.
你不是机器——人类生产力的理想不是像机器人那样行动。人类需要休息、放松、睡眠和玩耍，以便以高效和有效的方式发挥作用。这些事情太少都会严重削弱你做好工作的能力，并影响你享受生活的程度。
You are not a machine—the ideal of human productivity is not acting like a robot. Humans need rest, relaxation, sleep, and play in order to function in an efficient and effective way. Too little of any of these things can seriously diminish your capacity to do good work and impact how much you enjoy your life.
那么你如何休息和恢复呢？很简单：花时间做一些与您的日常活动和职责不同的事情。你的爱好和工作之间的重叠越少越好。
So how do you rest and recover? It’s simple: spend time doing something different from your normal activities and responsibilities. The less overlap between your hobby and your work, the better.
二战期间，温斯顿·丘吉尔承受着人所能承受的压力。作为英国首相，他从 1940 年到 1945 年战争结束期间一直负责领导英国的国防。一个国家的命运和人民的自由取决于他长达五年的坚韧和坚持.
During World War II, Winston Churchill was under as much stress as a person can withstand. As prime minister of the United Kingdom, he was responsible for leading the defense of Great Britain from 1940 until the end of the war in 1945. The fate of a country and the freedom of its people depended upon his fortitude and persistence for five long years.
丘吉尔是如何在如此沉重的负担下不倒下的呢？在作为消遣的绘画中，丘吉尔解释了花时间绘画如何帮助他从战争和政治的需求中恢复过来：
How did Churchill keep from collapsing under such a heavy burden? In Painting as a Pastime, Churchill explains how spending time painting helped him recover from the demands of war and politics:
为避免长期承担特殊责任和履行大量职责的人的忧虑和精神过度紧张，建议了许多补救措施。有些人建议旅行，有些人建议撤退。有人赞美孤独，和其他人，欢乐。毫无疑问，所有这些都可以根据个人气质发挥作用。但是在所有这些中不变和共同的元素是变化。
Many remedies are suggested for the avoidance of worry and mental overstrain by persons who, over prolonged periods, have to bear exceptional responsibilities and discharge duties upon a very large scale. Some advise travel, and others, retreat. Some praise solitude, and others, gaiety. No doubt all these may play their part according to the individual temperament. But the element which is constant and common in all of them is Change.
变化是万能钥匙。一个人可以通过不断地使用它并使它疲倦来耗尽他思想的某个特定部分，就像他可以耗尽他的外套的肘部一样。然而，大脑的活细胞和无生命的物体之间存在着这样的区别：一个人不能通过摩擦袖子或肩膀来修补一件外套磨损的肘部；但是头脑中疲倦的部分可以得到休息和加强，不仅仅是通过休息，还可以通过使用其他部分。仅仅关掉主要和普通兴趣领域的灯光是不够的；必须阐明一个新的兴趣领域。
Change is the master key. A man can wear out a particular part of his mind by continually using it and tiring it, just in the same way as he can wear out the elbows of his coat. There is, however, this difference between the living cells of the brain and inanimate articles: one cannot mend the frayed elbows of a coat by rubbing the sleeves or shoulders; but the tired parts of the mind can be rested and strengthened, not merely by rest, but by using other parts. It is not enough to merely switch off the lights which play upon the main and ordinary field of interest; a new field of interest must be illuminated.
对疲惫的大脑肌肉说——如果有人能编出这样的话——“我会让你好好休息”、“我会去散散步”或“我会躺下来什么都不要想”是没有用的。 ” 头脑仍然保持忙碌。如果它一直在称量和测量，它就继续称量和测量。如果它一直在担心，它就会继续担心。只有当新的细胞被调动起来，当新的恒星成为上升的主宰时，才会提供解脱、休息和恢复。
It is no use saying to the tired mental muscles—if one may coin such an expression—“I will give you a good rest,” “I will go for a long walk,” or “I will lie down and think of nothing.” The mind keeps busy just the same. If it has been weighing and measuring, it goes on weighing and measuring. If it has been worrying, it goes on worrying. It is only when new cells are called into activity, when new stars become the lords of the ascendant, that relief, repose, refreshment are afforded.
如果丘吉尔可以在世界大战期间抽出时间作画，那么您也可以在繁忙的日程中抽出时间休息和恢复做自己喜欢的事情。将无负罪感的时间花在休息和恢复上会让你的生活更愉快、更有成效。
If Churchill could find time to paint in the middle of a world war, you can find time in your busy schedule to rest and recover doing something you enjoy. Dedicating guilt-free time to rest and recovery will make your life more enjoyable and more productive.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/stress-recovery/
测试
Testing
发现往往是通过不遵循指示、偏离主干道、尝试未尝试的事物而获得的。
Discoveries are often made by not following instructions, by going off the main road, by trying the untried.
—FRANK TYGER，政治漫画家和专栏作家
—FRANK TYGER, POLITICAL CARTOONIST AND COLUMNIST
至少睡八个小时后，我的工作效果最好。起床并帮助家人为新的一天做好准备后，我吃早餐，吃一些我的补品身体需要正常运转，喝一杯薄荷茶或肉桂茶，然后通过晨间散步或摆动壶铃来锻炼 20 分钟。一旦我警觉并准备好开始，我就会打开我的电脑，关闭我的互联网连接，然后开始处理我最重要的任务。一旦开始，如果不被打扰，我可以不间断地集中注意力长达六个小时：时间再长，我的工作质量就会下降。
I work best after at least eight hours of sleep. After waking up and helping my family get ready for the day, I have breakfast, take a few supplements my body needs to function well, enjoy a cup of peppermint or cinnamon tea, and exercise by going for a morning walk or swinging kettlebells for twenty minutes. Once I’m alert and ready to begin, I turn on my computer, turn off my internet connection, and start working on my Most Important Task. Once I get started, I can concentrate for up to six hours without stopping if I’m not interrupted: any longer, and the quality of my work decreases.
我测试 了许多不同的方法和变量。这个例程最适合我，所以我把它变成了习惯。这会是我永远的方法吗？我对此表示怀疑——多年来，我早上的例行公事已经改变了很多次，而且我确信我会在未来找到其他更有效的方法。我的实验从未停止。
I’ve Tested many different approaches and variables. This routine is what works best for me, so I’ve made it a Habit. Will this be my method forever? I doubt it—my morning routine has changed many times over the years, and I’m certain I’ll find other methods that work even better in the future. My experimentation never stops.
测试是尝试新事物的行为——一种将科学方法和迭代周期应用到你自己生活中的方法。我认识的最快乐和最有成效的人都有一个共同点：他们总是尝试新事物，看看什么有效。如果您从不尝试任何新事物，就无法做出让您的生活更美好的积极发现。
Testing is the act of trying something new—a way of applying the scientific method and the Iteration Cycle to your own life. The most happy and productive people I know all have something in common: they’re always trying new things to see what works. You can’t make positive discoveries that make your life better if you never try anything new.
测试不必很复杂。所需要的只是选择你生活中的某个部分来关注，然后尝试新的方法来获得你想要的。您可以测试随机方法，或了解哪些方法对其他人有效，然后自己测试该方法，在笔记本中具体化您的结果可以帮助您跟踪您尝试过的方法、有效的方法和无效的方法。
Testing doesn’t have to be complicated. All that’s required is choosing some part of your life to focus on, then trying new ways to get what you want. You can Test random approaches, or read about what works for others and then test the approach yourself, Externalizing your results in a notebook can help you keep track of what you’ve tried, what works, and what doesn’t.
这是一个简单的结构，可以帮助您计划和跟踪您的实验：
Here’s a simple structure that will help you plan and track your experiments:
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观察——你在生活或事业中观察到哪些你想改进的地方？
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Observations—what are you observing in your life or business that you want to improve?
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已知——你从过去的实验中学到了什么可能与你的观察有关？
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Knowns—what have you learned from past experiments that might be related to your observations?
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假设——基于你所观察到的，哪些情况或因素可能导致或促成你的观察？
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Hypotheses—based on what you’ve observed, what situations or factors might cause or contribute to your observations?
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测试——你会尝试或改变什么来改善你的处境？这个实验将检验哪些假设？
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Tests—what will you try or change to improve your situation? Which hypotheses will this experiment Test?
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结果——每次测试后发生了什么？它支持还是否定你的假设？
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Results—what happened after each Test? Does it support or disconfirm your hypothesis?
这里有几个问题可以帮助您发现值得测试的东西：
Here are a few questions to help you discover things worth Testing:
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您需要多少睡眠才能感到休息和警觉？
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How much sleep do you need to feel rested and alert?
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哪些食物让你吃完后感觉精力充沛？哪些食物会让您感到不适或昏昏欲睡？
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Which foods make you feel energetic after eating? Which foods make you feel ill or lethargic?
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你什么时候做你最有成效的工作？你的工作效率有什么模式吗？
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When do you do your most productive work? Are there any patterns in your productivity?
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你什么时候有最好的想法？当它们出现在你身上时，你在做什么？
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When do you get your best ideas? What are you doing when they occur to you?
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您最大的压力或担忧来源是什么？你什么时候开始担心，为什么？
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What is your biggest source of stress or concern? When do you start worrying, and why?
一旦您在其中一个领域找到了模式，就该开始试验了。改变你对生活中这些领域之一的态度，并将你的结果具体化。如果你发现一个改变有用，就继续做——如果没有，就停止做并尝试其他事情。
Once you’ve found a pattern in one of these areas, it’s time to start experimenting. Change your approach to one of these areas of your life and Externalize your results. If you find a change useful, keep doing it—if not, stop doing it and try something else.
测试是确保您的生活随着时间的推移变得更好的最佳方式。通过尝试新事物，您可以了解哪些适合您，哪些不适合您。随着时间的推移，你会发现规律——让你的生活变得更好的事物和让你的生活更糟的事物。你的实验结果不断累积，直到产生你想要的结果。
Testing is the best way to ensure that your life gets better over time. By trying new things, you’re learning what works for you and what doesn’t. Over time, you’ll discover patterns—things that make your life better and things that make your life worse. The results of your experiments Accumulate, until they produce the results you want.
你永远不会知道，直到你尝试。
You never know until you try.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/testing/
神秘感
Mystique
如果我们知道如何在几代人之间传递情感体验，就像我们传递金钱或科学知识一样，我们将避免多少悲伤。
What grief we’d avoid if we knew how to transfer emotional experience across generations, as we do money or scientific knowledge.
——阿兰·德·波顿，哲学家和散文家
—ALAIN DE BOTTON, PHILOSOPHER AND ESSAYIST
喜欢存在/做某事的想法与喜欢实际存在/做某事之间存在很大差异。
There’s a big difference between liking the idea of being/doing something and liking the actual being/doing.
成为财富500 强公司首席执行官的想法很容易让人喜欢。更难喜欢最高职位带来的时间、责任和压力。
It’s easy to like the idea of being the CEO of a Fortune 500 company. It’s harder to like the hours, the responsibility, and the pressure that comes with the top job.
很容易喜欢成为经理的想法。更难让人喜欢 C 级高管的要求、直接下属的惊喜，以及在政治环境中捍卫自己地盘的必要性。
It’s easy to like the idea of being a manager. It’s harder to like the demands from C-level execs, surprises from your direct reports, and the necessity of defending your turf in a political environment.
拥有常春藤联盟 MBA 或法律学位的想法很容易让人喜欢。很难喜欢六位数的债务以及相应的每周 60 多个小时的压力工作以使投资“值得”的必要性。
It’s easy to like the idea of having an Ivy League MBA or law degree. It’s harder to like the six-figure debt and the corresponding necessity of getting a stressful sixty-plus-hour-a-week job to make the investment “worth it.”
个体户的想法很容易让人喜欢。你的收入 100% 来自你自己的努力，如果你搞砸了，你就是要承担后果的人，这更让人难以接受。
It’s easy to like the idea of being self-employed. It’s harder to like the fact that 100 percent of your income comes from your own effort and that if you screw up, you’re the one who will face the consequences.
人们很容易喜欢筹集数百万美元风险投资的想法。更难让人喜欢的是，你已经放弃了对你投入生命的项目的控制权。
It’s easy to like the idea of raising millions of dollars of venture capital. It’s harder to like the fact that you’ve given up control over the project you’re investing your life in.
喜欢成为作家的想法很容易。更难喜欢孤独、自我怀疑和长时间“坐在椅子上，手放在键盘上”，而这些都是一致写作所需要的。
It’s easy to like the idea of being an author. It’s harder to like the solitude, self-doubt, and long hours of “butt in chair, hands on keyboard” that consistent writing requires.
很容易喜欢成为名人的想法。更难喜欢不断的审查、隐私的丧失，以及担心人们会把注意力从你身上转移到“下一件大事”上。
It’s easy to like the idea of being a celebrity. It’s harder to like the constant scrutiny, loss of privacy, and fear that people will direct their attention away from you in favor of the “next big thing.”
神秘感是一种强大的力量——一点神秘感会让大多数事物看起来比实际更有吸引力。幸运的是，有一种简单的方法可以抵消魔形女的玫瑰色眼镜：与做过你感兴趣的事情的人进行真实的、人性化的对话。
Mystique is a powerful force—a little mystery makes most things appear to be a lot more attractive than they really are. Fortunately, there’s an easy way to counteract the rose-colored glasses of Mystique: have a real, human conversation with someone who’s done what you’re interested in doing.
以下是要问的问题：“我尊重你的所作所为，但我认为它有高潮和低谷。你能和我分享吗？知道你现在所知道的，值得付出努力吗？”
Here’s what to ask: “I respect what you’re doing, but I imagine it has high points and low points. Could you share them with me? Knowing what you know now, is it worth the effort?”
这次谈话只需要几分钟，但您会对所学到的东西感到惊讶，无论是积极的还是消极的。
This conversation will only take a few minutes, but you’ll be amazed by what you learn, on both the positive and the negative side.
没有任何工作、项目或职位是完美的——每一个行动过程都有权衡取舍。提前了解它们是什么给你一个主要优势：你可以检查一个选项而不用理想化它，然后在开始之前选择它是否是你想要做的。这种知识是无价的。
No job, project, or position is flawless—every course of action has Trade-offs. Learning what they are in advance gives you a major advantage: you can examine an option without idealizing it, then choose if it’s what you want to do before you start. That kind of knowledge is priceless.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/mystique/
享乐跑步机
Hedonic Treadmill
如果你想让一个人快乐，不要增加他的财富，而要减少他的欲望。
If thou wilt make a man happy, add not unto his riches but take away from his desires.
——伊壁鸠鲁，公元前四世纪的希腊哲学家
—EPICURUS, FOURTH-CENTURY-BCE GREEK PHILOSOPHER
让我们假设您相信购买一辆漂亮的新车会让您开心。在短期内，它可能：在第一周左右，您可能会在开车时体验到极大的乐趣。然而，随着时间的推移，你的快乐会消退，心理学家将这种现象称为“享乐适应”。不久之后，您的新车将融入您的周围环境，您的思绪将专注于追求幸福的其他事物。
Let’s assume that you believe buying a fancy new car will make you happy. In the short term, it might: for the first week or so, you’ll probably experience great pleasure when you drive. Over time, however, your joy will fade, a phenomenon psychologists call “hedonic adaptation.” Before long, your new car will blend into your surroundings and your mind will fixate on something else to pursue in the quest for happiness.
这个循环称为享乐跑步机：我们追求愉悦的事物，因为我们认为它们会让我们快乐。当我们最终实现或获得我们所追求的东西时，我们会在很短的时间内适应我们的成功，而我们的成功不再给我们带来快乐。结果，我们开始寻找新事物，然后循环重复。
This cycle is called the Hedonic Treadmill: we pursue pleasurable things because we think they’ll make us happy. When we finally achieve or acquire what we’re seeking, we adapt to our success in a very short period of time, and our success no longer gives us pleasure. As a result, we begin seeking something new, and the cycle repeats.
享乐跑步机解释了为什么获得财富、地位和名望的人会继续追求更多。由于我们对自己拥有的东西很长时间都不满意，所以我们专注于要实现或拥有的其他东西只是时间问题。
The Hedonic Treadmill explains why people who achieve wealth, status, and fame continue to seek more. Since we’re not satisfied with what we have for very long, it’s only a matter of time before we fixate on something else to achieve or possess.
如果您想长时间体验成功或成就感，Hedonic 跑步机是个大问题。努力工作、投资、牺牲并努力攀登自己领域的顶峰，结果却发现自己焦躁不安和沮丧，这是有可能的。你会惊讶于有多少“成功”的人对他们的生活并不满意，即使他们已经实现了他们打算做的一切。
The Hedonic Treadmill is a major problem if you’d like to experience a feeling of success or achievement for an extended period of time. It’s possible to work hard, invest, sacrifice, and push your way to the top of your field, only to find yourself restless and despondent. You’d be surprised at how many “successful” people aren’t happy with their lives, even after they’ve achieved everything they set out to do.
使享乐跑步机短路很棘手：这是穴居人综合症的副作用。然而，我们可以关注一些事情，这些事情往往会带来持续的生活满意度。根据现有研究，这里有五个优先事项，它们将以最小化享乐适应的方式为您的长期幸福做出贡献：
Short-circuiting the Hedonic Treadmill is tricky: it’s a side effect of Caveman Syndrome. There are, however, a few things we can focus on that tend to lead to sustained levels of life satisfaction. Based on the available research, here are five priorities that will contribute to your long-term happiness in a way that minimizes hedonic adaptation:
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努力赚“足够”的钱。金钱有助于幸福，但只是在一定程度上。根据丹尼尔·卡尼曼 (Daniel Kahneman) 和安格斯·迪顿 (Angus Deaton) 2010 年的一项研究，金钱与报告的幸福水平高达每年约 75,000 美元的家庭年收入，这代表了 2008-09 年美国家庭收入最高的三分之一，即研究年份。达到这一收入水平需要付出努力，但这是非常容易实现的：在研究期间，美国家庭收入中位数为 71,500 美元。
一旦你有足够的钱来支付必需品和一些奢侈品，你就会达到一个收益递减点：你多赚的每一美元都不会提供相同数量的效用。除了收益递减这一点之外，拥有更多的钱并不会增加幸福感——事实上，它可能会因为成为压力和担忧的额外来源而降低幸福感。12
了解收益递减的货币点是有用的：通过将消费限制在某个点以上并建立长期储蓄，您可以获得财务安全和弹性的好处，而无需花费清醒的每一刻来为您将适应的乐趣付出代价在不到一个月的时间里。
一般来说，经验比物质财富更能促进幸福。除了满足您的需求之外，与您喜欢的人一起旅行比购买昂贵的奢侈品更能让您物有所值。
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Work to make “enough” money. Money contributes to happiness, but only to a certain point. According to a 2010 study by Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton, money has a positive correlation with reported levels of happiness up to an annual household income of approximately $75,000 per year, which represents an income in the top third of US households in 2008–09, the years of the study. Reaching this level of income requires effort, but it’s very achievable: median US household income during the years of the study was $71,500.
Once you have enough money to cover the necessities and a few luxuries, you reach a point of Diminishing Returns: every additional dollar you earn doesn’t provide the same amount of utility. Beyond the point of Diminishing Returns, having more money doesn’t increase happiness—in fact, it may decrease it by becoming an additional source of stress and worry.12
Knowing your monetary point of Diminishing Returns is useful: by limiting your consumption beyond a certain point and establishing long-term savings, you can reap the benefits of financial security and Resilience without spending every waking moment working to pay for pleasures you’ll adapt to in less than a month.
As a general rule, experiences contribute more to happiness than material goods. Beyond the point where your needs are met, you’ll get a higher emotional return for your dollar by traveling with people you like than by purchasing an expensive luxury item.
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专注于改善您的健康和精力。健康是幸福的主要促成因素：当您感觉良好时，您就更有可能感到幸福。反之亦然：当你感到不适时，你往往会体验到更少的快乐、享受和生活满意度。
尝试改善您典型的健康和精力水平的方法可以极大地改善您的生活质量。请记住，人体有性能要求：食物、运动和休息不是可有可无的。如果您优先考虑为您的身体提供茁壮成长所需的物质，那么您将在未来的岁月中收获回报。
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Focus on improving your health and energy. Health is a major contributing factor to happiness: when you feel great, you’re more likely to feel happy. The converse is also true: when you feel ill, you tend to experience less pleasure, enjoyment, and life satisfaction.
Experimenting with ways to improve your typical level of health and energy can result in huge improvements in your quality of life. Remember, the human body has Performance Requirements: food, exercise, and rest are not optional. If you make it a priority to give your body what it needs to thrive, you’ll reap the rewards over the years to come.
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花时间和你喜欢的人在一起。幸福的最大预测因素之一是您与喜欢的人相处的时间：家人、朋友和志同道合的熟人。背景和环境不如与您共度时光的人重要。
不同的人需要不同程度的社会接触才能感到快乐。外向的人会因社交接触而感到精力充沛，需要经常与他人相处。内向的人（像我一样）可以在几天或几周内很少与社会接触，并从独处中获得能量。尽管如此，内向的人仍会从与他们喜欢的人共度时光中获益：与朋友的定期社交时间与生活满意度的持续显着提高高度相关。长时间的用餐和与朋友的旅行是对时间的一种很好的利用。
根据项目负责人乔治·维兰特的说法，哈佛成人发展研究（持续时间最长的心理健康纵向研究）的结果可以归结为：“生活中唯一真正重要的是你与他人的关系。 ” 13
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Spend time with people you enjoy. One of the single biggest predictors of happiness is the amount of time you spend with people you enjoy: family, friends, and like-minded acquaintances. The context and environment are less important than the people you spend time with.
Different people need different levels of social contact to feel happy. Extroverted people feel energized by social contact and need to be around others on a regular basis. Introverted people (like me) can go days or weeks with little social contact and get their energy from spending time alone. Still, introverted people benefit from spending time with people they like: regular social time with friends is highly correlated with major, sustained increases in life satisfaction. Long meals and trips with friends are a great use of time.
According to George Vaillant, the project’s director, the results of the Harvard Study of Adult Development (the longest-running longitudinal study of mental health) boil down to this: “The only thing that really matters in life are your relationships with other people.”13
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消除慢性烦恼。生活中有很多事情会让你神经紧张。检查减少或消除慢性压力或烦恼的方法可以显着提高生活满意度。
如果您发现在高峰时段的交通压力很大，那么靠近工作地点是一个很好的解决方案。如果您不喜欢目前的工作，请开始寻找另一份工作。如果您发现与特定客户一起工作很烦人，请解雇他们。如果您在旅行时总是忘记打包笔记本电脑的电源线，请购买第二根放在旅行包中的电缆。通过找到消除不必要的压力和挫败感的简单方法，您会花更少的时间和精力感觉不好，而花更多的时间感觉良好。
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Remove chronic annoyances. There are many things in life that can wear on your nerves. Examining ways to reduce or eliminate chronic stresses or annoyances can generate significant improvements in life satisfaction.
If you find driving in rush-hour traffic stressful, moving closer to work is a good solution. If you don’t like your current job, start looking for another. If you find working with a particular client annoying, fire them. If you always forget to pack your laptop’s power cable when you travel, buy a second cable that stays in your travel bag. By finding simple ways to remove unnecessary stress and frustration, you’ll spend less time and energy feeling bad and more time feeling good.
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追求新的挑战。大多数人认为退休人员会感到喜出望外，但事实往往并非如此。人们通常会从工作中获得使命感和乐趣，而当他们以前的职业不再是优先考虑时，退休人员会感到空虚和迷失。如果不加以解决，这种失落感可能会演变成抑郁症。
解决方案是接受令人兴奋的新挑战。这个挑战可以是任何事情：掌握一项新技能、完成一个大项目或追求一项重大成就。无论是学习一门新语言、演奏乐器、从头开始构建东西，还是完成马拉松，为新成就而奋斗是长期体验快乐和成长的最佳方式。
专注于物质产品的体验会走很长一段路，如果您想离开 Hedonic 跑步机。用 19 世纪的历史学家和牧师查尔斯·金斯利 (Charles Kingsley) 的不朽名言：“我们表现得好像舒适和奢侈是生活的主要要求，而我们需要让我们快乐的只是热情的事情。”
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Pursue a new challenge. Most people assume retirees feel overjoyed, but that’s often not the case. It’s common for people to derive a sense of purpose and enjoyment from their work, and retirees can feel empty and lost when their former career is no longer a priority. Left unresolved, this sense of loss can spiral into depression.
The solution is to take on an exciting new challenge. This challenge can be anything: mastering a new skill, completing a big project, or pursuing a major accomplishment. Whether it’s learning a new language, playing an instrument, building something from scratch, or completing a marathon, striving for new achievement is the best way to experience happiness and growth over long periods of time.
Focusing on experiences over material goods goes a long way if you want to step off the Hedonic Treadmill. In the immortal words of Charles Kingsley, a nineteenth-century historian and clergyman: “We act as though comfort and luxury were the chief requirements of life, when all we need to make us happy is something to be enthusiastic about.”
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/hedonic-treadmill/
比较谬误
Comparison Fallacy
永远不要将你的内在与别人的外在进行比较。
Never compare your inside with someone else’s outside.
——休·麦克劳德，漫画家和《无视所有人》的作者
—HUGH MACLEOD, CARTOONIST AND AUTHOR OF IGNORE EVERYBODY
在商业和生活中，很容易将我们的情况与他人进行比较。地位寻求确保我们花费精力追踪我们与同龄人的相对地位，而大多数时候我们的结论并不有利。
In business and in life, it’s easy to compare our situation to others’. Status seeking ensures that we spend energy tracking our relative status to our peers, and most of the time our conclusions aren’t favorable.
我们倾向于专注于其他人正在完成的事情，而不是我们下一步需要做什么来实现我们的目标。当我们认识的其他人成就大事时，我们很容易为自己感到难过，而不是为他们的成就感到高兴，就好像他们的成功在某种程度上削弱了我们一样。它没有。
We tend to fixate on what other people are accomplishing instead of what we need to do next to achieve our Goals. When other people we know accomplish big things, it’s easy to feel sad for ourselves instead of happy for their achievements, as if their success diminishes us in some way. It doesn’t.
比较谬误是一个简单的想法：其他人不是你，你也不是其他人。你有独特的技能、目标和优先事项。说到底，拿自己和别人比较是愚蠢的，而且没有什么好处。
The Comparison Fallacy is a simple idea: other people are not you, and you are not other people. You have unique skills, goals, and priorities. In the end, comparing yourself to other people is silly, and there’s little to be gained by it.
举个例子：我的一个朋友在生意上非常成功，每年赚的钱大约是我的十倍。他的工作得到了很多公众的认可。他的产品卖得很好，他很享受自己的成功。有很多值得羡慕的地方。
Here’s an example: one of my friends is very successful in business and makes about ten times what I make each year. He has received a lot of public recognition for his work. His products sell well, and he enjoys his success. There’s a lot to envy.
这是硬币的另一面：我的朋友每天工作 12 个小时，有时甚至更多。他没有家庭。他有一大批需要时刻关注的员工，他公司的Overhead是我的十倍以上。他被电子邮件、电话和会议搞得不知所措。他几乎每时每刻都承受着巨大的压力。
Here’s the other side of the coin: my friend works twelve hours a day, sometimes more. He doesn’t have a family. He has a large staff that requires constant attention, and his business’s Overhead is more than ten times mine. He’s overwhelmed with email, phone calls, and meetings. He’s under tremendous stress almost all the time.
很容易看到我朋友一生的好处，也很容易忽视权衡取舍。这就是诀窍：他在某些领域取得了成功，因为他工作非常努力，而且他愿意为成功付出代价。
It’s easy to see the benefits of my friend’s life, and just as easy to overlook the Trade-offs. That’s the trick: he is successful in certain areas because he works very hard, and he’s willing to pay the price of his success.
如果我可以和我的朋友交换生命，我不会：我会很痛苦。他的生活与我的优先事项或我喜欢的生活和工作方式不相符。他所享有的好处对我很有吸引力，但我不愿意为获得这些好处付出他所付出的代价。记住比较谬误让我祝他一切顺利，并专注于实现对我来说最重要的目标。我可以为他的成功感到由衷的高兴，而不是将我的精力浪费在毫无意义的嫉妒上。
If I could swap lives with my friend, I wouldn’t: I’d be miserable. His life doesn’t mesh with my priorities or how I prefer to live and work. The benefits he enjoys appeal to me, but I’m not willing to pay the price he’s paid for obtaining them. Remembering the Comparison Fallacy allows me to wish him well and stay focused on achieving the Goals that are most important to me. I can be genuinely happy for his success and not waste my energy on pointless envy.
同样的技巧适用于任何可能产生嫉妒或自卑感的情况。每当您想要将自己与熟人、同事、同学或名人进行比较时，记住您的目标、偏好和优先事项并不相同总是有帮助的。你们过着不同的生活，你们每个人都为你们所取得的成就付出了不同的代价。您尝试进行的任何比较都会使自身无效，因此您可以放心。
The same trick works in any situation that has the potential of generating feelings of envy or inferiority. Whenever you’re tempted to compare yourself to an acquaintance, colleague, classmate, or celebrity, it always helps to keep in mind that your goals, preferences, and priorities are not the same. You’ve lived different lives, and you’ve each paid a different price for what you’ve accomplished. Any comparison you try to make renders itself invalid, so you can relax.
衡量成功的唯一重要标准是：你是否花时间做你喜欢的事情，与你喜欢的人在一起，以保持经济充足的方式？如果是这样，请不要担心其他人在做什么。如果没有，请专注于在您的控制点内进行更改，这样您就可以开始朝着您想要的方向前进。记住比较谬误，不断靠近你想要的。
The only metric of success that matters is this: are you spending your time doing things you like, with people you enjoy, in a way that keeps you financially sufficient? If so, don’t worry about what other people are doing. If not, focus on making changes that are within your Locus of Control, so you can start moving in the direction you desire. Remember the Comparison Fallacy and keep moving closer to what you want.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/comparison-fallacy/
控制点
Locus of Control
赐予我平静去接受我无法改变的事情，给我勇气去改变我能改变的事情，赐予我辨别差异的智慧。
Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
——宁静的祈祷
—THE SERENITY PRAYER
无论你多么想要一份特定的工作，在面试结束后，你无法控制你是否得到这份工作——你已经做了你能做的。
No matter how much you want a particular job, after the interview is over, you can’t control whether or not you get the job—you’ve done what you could.
无论你多么专注地观察股市，你都无法希望某家公司的股价上涨。
No matter how intently you watch the stock market, you can’t will the stock price of a particular company to go up.
无论您多么想留住关键员工或做人际关系工作，你不能阻止他们想走就走。
No matter how much you’d like to retain a key employee or make a personal relationship work, you can’t prevent them from leaving if they want to.
了解您的控制点能够将您可以控制（或强烈影响）的内容与您不能控制的内容区分开来。试图控制不在你控制之下的事情会导致永远的挫败感。
Understanding your Locus of Control is being able to separate what you can control (or strongly influence) from what you can’t. Trying to control things that aren’t under your control is a recipe for eternal frustration.
尽管我们很想控制，但我们无法控制发生在我们身上的一切。自然灾害就是一个很好的例子：如果龙卷风或地震摧毁了您的房屋，您将无能为力。正如想象的那样令人不舒服，环境包含许多我们无法控制的东西。这是我们无法改变的生活的一个基本方面，无论我们多么想要。
As much as we’d like to, we can’t control everything that happens to us. Natural disasters are a perfect example: if a tornado or earthquake destroys your home, there’s nothing you can do about it. As uncomfortable as it is to imagine, the Environment contains many things we can’t control. It’s a fundamental aspect of life that we can’t change, no matter how much we might want to.
专注于你的努力可以帮助你保持理智；将您无法控制的结果变成目标会让人沮丧。节食使人发疯的原因之一是他们试图控制一个结果——体重——而这个结果不在他们的直接控制之下。如果你专注于努力——吃健康的食物、锻炼，并尽你所能控制相关的医疗状况——你的体重会自行控制。
Focusing on your efforts helps you stay sane; turning results you don’t control into Goals is a recipe for frustration. One of the reasons that diets drive people crazy is that they involve trying to control a result—weight—that is not under their direct control. If you focus on efforts—eating healthy food, exercising, and doing what you can to manage related medical conditions—your weight will handle itself.
担心你无法影响或控制的事情是浪费时间和精力。我做过的最好的事情之一就是选择停止关注新闻——你在报纸或电视新闻广播中找到的 99.9% 的信息都在你的控制点之外。与其徒劳地担心“世界将要发生什么”，不如忽略新闻有助于我花更多时间做我能做的事情，让事情变得更好。
Worrying about things you can’t influence or control is a waste of time and energy. One of the best things I’ve ever done was choose to stop paying Attention to the news—99.9 percent of the information you’ll find in a newspaper or television newscast is outside of your Locus of Control. Instead of fruitlessly worrying about “what the world is coming to,” ignoring the news helps me spend more of my time doing what I can to make things better.
你越能把你能控制的和你不能控制的分开，你就会越快乐，工作效率也越高。将大部分精力集中在您可以影响的事情上，让其他一切都去吧。把注意力集中在你正在做的事情上，以建立你想要的生活，你到达那里只是时间问题。
The better you’re able to separate what you can control from what you can’t, the happier and more productive you’ll be. Focus most of your energy on things that you can influence and let everything else go. Keep your Attention on what you’re doing to build the life you want to live, and it’s only a matter of time before you get there.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/locus-of-control/
附件
Attachment
当我们做出生活中的重要决定时，没有号角会响起。命运在无声中被告知。
No trumpets sound when the important decisions of our life are made. Destiny is made known silently.
—AGNES DE MILLE，舞蹈家和编舞家
—AGNES DE MILLE, DANCER AND CHOREOGRAPHER
想象一下，您正在攀登珠穆朗玛峰，正在实现您的目标。在您计划登顶的前一天晚上，一场巨大的风暴毫无征兆地出现了。能见度为零，温度正在下降，而且条件非常糟糕，如果继续攀登，你可能会摔倒或冻死。
Imagine you’re on your way up Mount Everest, on the way to achieving your Goal. The night before you plan to summit, a massive storm appears without warning. Visibility is zero, the temperature is dropping, and conditions are so bad you risk falling or freezing to death if you continue climbing.
你失败了吗？
Have you failed?
当我们控制点之外的事情影响我们的计划或目标时，很容易将其视为个人。如果您下定决心今天要登顶珠穆朗玛峰，您很可能会遭遇厄运。最好改变你的计划，改天再爬山。
When something outside of our Locus of Control affects our plans or Goals, it’s easy to take it personally. If you have your heart set on summiting Mount Everest today, you’ll likely meet your doom. Far better to change your plans and live to climb the mountain another day.
您对特定想法或计划的依恋程度越高，您就越会限制自己的灵活性并减少找到更好解决方案的机会。致力于追求你的目标是件好事，但只是在一定程度上。如果你过于执着于脑海中的幻象，你将很难适应生活中不可避免的曲折。
The more Attachment you feel to a particular idea or plan, the more you limit your flexibility and reduce your chances of finding a better solution. It’s good to be dedicated to the pursuit of your goals, but only to a point. If you become too Attached to the visions you have in your head, you’ll have a hard time adjusting to the inevitable twists and turns of life.
接受需要将沉没成本的概念应用到自己身上。想象一下在股票市场上损失数百万美元——一个可怕的情况。无论您如何谴责贪婪的银行家、腐败的政客或生活中的不公平，都不会把钱拿回来。花时间因为没有“知道得更好”或无所不知而感到沮丧不会改善你的处境。
Acceptance requires applying the concept of Sunk Cost to yourself. Imagine losing millions of dollars in the stock market—a horrible situation. No matter how much you rail against greedy bankers, corrupt politicians, or the unfairness of life, it’s not going to bring that money back. Spending time feeling down for not “knowing better” or being omniscient won’t improve your situation.
附件的解决方案是接受您的想法或计划不再可行或有用。您对自己的计划、目标、状态和职位的依恋程度越低，就越容易对不可避免的变化或不可预见的情况做出适当的反应。
The solution to Attachment is accepting that your idea or plan is no longer feasible or useful. The less Attached you are to your plans, Goals, status, and position, the easier it will be to respond appropriately to inevitable change or unforeseen circumstances.
如果你突然失去了工作，继续依附于你以前的职位是一种障碍，而不是帮助。最好把精力花在需要做的事情上，以带来更多的收入。
If you suddenly lose your job, remaining Attached to your previous position is a hindrance, not a help. It’s better to spend your energy doing what needs to be done to bring in more income.
你越专注并接受已经发生的事情，选择做你能做的事情，让事情变得更好，你就会更快乐。
The more you focus and accept the things that have happened and choose to work on things that you can do to make things better, the happier you’ll be.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/attachment/
个人研发
Personal Research and Development
如果一个人把钱袋里的钱都塞进了他的脑袋里，就没有人能把它拿走。对知识的投资总是回报最高。
If a man empties his purse into his head, no one can take it from him. An investment in knowledge always pays the highest return.
—本杰明·富兰克林，18 世纪美国政治领袖、科学家和博学者
—BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY AMERICAN POLITICAL LEADER, SCIENTIST, AND POLYMATH
每个成功的企业都会投入一定数量的资源来尝试新事物。研发 (R&D) 是世界各地的商业领袖决定公司下一步应该做什么的依据。大公司每年花费数百万（有时数十亿）美元用于推测性研究，试验新技术和新工艺以增强其能力。
Every successful business dedicates a certain amount of resources to trying new things. Research and development (R&D) is what business leaders around the world count on to determine what the company should work on next. Large companies spend millions (sometimes billions) of dollars in speculative research every year, experimenting with new techniques and processes in order to enhance their capabilities.
研发之所以存在，是因为它有效——将研发放在首位的公司通常会发现新产品来为客户提供服务或改进流程，从而对利润做出有意义的贡献。如果它对他们有用，它也可以为你工作。
R&D exists because it works—companies that make research and development a priority often discover new products to offer their customers or process improvements that meaningfully contribute to the bottom line. If it works for them, it can work for you.
如果您每月拨出几百美元作为个人研发预算会怎样？使用Ramit Sethi 所著的《我会教你致富》中讨论的技巧，很容易将你每月收入的一定数额转移到一个专门用于个人研发的账户中。这笔钱可以无罪地用于购买书籍、参加课程、购买设备或参加会议：任何可以提高你的技能和能力的事情。
What would it look like if you set aside a few hundred dollars a month as a Personal Research and Development budget? Using the techniques discussed in I Will Teach You to Be Rich, by Ramit Sethi, it’s easy to divert a certain amount of your monthly income into an account earmarked for Personal R&D. That money can then be used—guilt free—for purchasing books, taking courses, acquiring equipment, or attending conferences: anything that will improve your skills and capabilities.
个人理财专家可能不同意我的观点，但我认为拥有稳健的个人研发预算比最大化储蓄更重要。我完全赞成拥有一个资金充足的应急账户并为未来的需要储蓄足够的钱，但储蓄只能让你走到这一步。
Personal-finance pundits might disagree with me here, but I think having a robust Personal R&D budget is more important than maximizing your savings. I’m all for having a well-funded emergency account and saving enough for future needs, but savings can only get you so far.
投资于提高您的个人技能和能力可以丰富您的生活并打开通往额外收入来源的大门。新技能创造新的机会，而新的机会往往会转化为更多的收入。你的储蓄能力是有限的；你的赚钱能力不是。
Investments in improving your personal skills and capabilities can enrich your life and open doors to additional income sources. New skills create new opportunities, and new opportunities often translate into more income. Your ability to save is limited; your ability to earn is not.
这里有一个简单的思维实验，可以帮助您建立自己的个人研发预算：假设您当前的收入保持不变，需要做出哪些改变才能将至少 5% 的月收入用于个人发展和实验？
Here’s a simple Thought Experiment that will help you establish your own Personal R&D budget: What would have to change to be able to dedicate at least 5 percent of your monthly income to personal development and experimentation, assuming your current income stays the same?
您在优秀的个人理财书籍或博客中找到的任何省钱技巧都可以用来为您的个人研发账户提供资金。只需要一点点创造力和预算，您就可以顺利地为自己的自主研发实验室提供资金。
Any money-saving tip you find in good personal-finance books or blogs can be used to fund your Personal R&D account. All it takes is a little creativity and budgeting, and you’ll be well on your way to funding your own self-directed Personal R&D laboratory.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/personal-research-and-development/
限制信念
Limiting Belief
明智的不满是文明的主要动力。
Intelligent discontent is the mainspring of civilization.
—EUGENE V. DEBS，工会活动家
—EUGENE V. DEBS, LABOR UNION ACTIVIST
一般而言，有两种主要的看待世界的方式——两种影响您对新体验的反应的思维方式。
In general, there are two primary ways of looking at the world—two mind-sets that influence your response to new experiences.
第一个基本心态是你的技能和能力是固定的。如果您尝试了某件事但没有奏效，那是因为您“不擅长”，而且您永远不会。你天生就有永远不会改变的天赋技能和能力。
The first basic mind-set is that your skills and abilities are fixed. If you try something and it doesn’t work, it’s because you’re “not good at that,” and you never will be. You were born with innate skills and abilities that will never change.
使用这种心态，如果你遇到挑战或困难，你很可能会停下来——你显然不擅长，所以何必呢？
Using this mind-set, if you experience a challenge or difficulty, you’re likely to stop—you’re obviously not good at it, so why bother?
第二种基本心态是你的技能和能力是可塑的。如果你尝试了某件事但没有奏效，那是因为你还没有在这方面下功夫，但如果你继续尝试，你会变得更好。你的技能和能力就像肌肉一样——它们会随着使用而增强。如果你遇到挑战或困难，你可能会继续前进——你可能还不擅长，但你总是在进步。
The second basic mind-set is that your skills and abilities are malleable. If you try something and it doesn’t work, it’s because you haven’t worked on it very much, but if you keep trying, you’ll get better. Your skills and abilities are like muscles—they strengthen with use. If you experience a challenge or difficulty, you’re likely to keep going—you might not be good at it yet, but you’re always getting better.
这两种心态影响着你如何体验世界上的一切。在心态：成功的新心理学中，Carol S. Dweck 博士将这些心态称为智力的“固定”和“成长”理论。如果你有一个“固定”的心态，挑战是对你作为一个人的价值的评论——你已经被尝试过并发现自己缺乏，这让尝试新事物感到威胁。如果你有“成长”的心态，那么挑战就是一个障碍，需要通过更加努力的工作来克服。固定的心态是限制性信念的一个例子：你认为世界上某些东西是真实的，它阻碍你实现你珍视的目标。固定的心态是不正确的，但如果你选择相信它，它就会让你退缩。
These two mind-sets color how you experience everything in the world. In Mindset: The New Psychology of Success, Dr. Carol S. Dweck calls these mind-sets the “fixed” and “growth” theories of intelligence. If you have a “fixed” mind-set, challenges are a commentary on your worth as a person—you’ve been tried and found wanting, which makes trying new things feel threatening. If you have a “growth” mind-set, challenges are an obstacle to be overcome by working harder. The fixed mind-set is an example of a Limiting Belief: something you believe is true about the world that holds you back from achieving a Goal you value. The fixed mind-set isn’t true, but it’s capable of holding you back if you choose to believe it.
一些限制性信念是模式匹配错误的结果。这是一个常见的例子：如果你认为有钱人肤浅、不道德或腐败，你会发现赚钱很困难。如果你赚的钱比现在多，你就会成为“那些人”中的一员，这种想法会让你在钱成为问题的时候感到不舒服。
Some Limiting Beliefs are the result of errors in Pattern Matching. Here’s a common example: if you believe that wealthy people are superficial, unethical, or corrupt, you’ll find it difficult to make money. If you make more money than you make now, you’ll become one of “those people,” and the thought will make you uncomfortable anytime money is an issue.
如果你不识别冲突并解决它，金钱问题总是会让你感到不舒服。你的大脑没有出现故障：你大脑的一部分正在预测未来并试图保护你免受你不想要的事情的影响，但它以适得其反的方式完成任务。要取得进步，您必须识别并消除阻碍您前进的信念。
If you don’t identify the Conflict and resolve it, money matters will always make you uncomfortable. Your mind is not malfunctioning: part of your brain is anticipating the future and trying to protect you from something you don’t want, but it’s going about the task in a counterproductive way. To make progress, you have to identify and eliminate the beliefs that are holding you back.
每个人在某些领域都有限制性信念。每当你使用“我不能”、“我必须”或“我不擅长”这些词时，你就发现了潜在的限制性信念。大多数时候，花点时间质疑信念是打破它所需要做的一切。“真的吗？” 和“我怎么知道那是真的？” 是非常强大和多才多艺的自我启发问题。
Everyone has Limiting Beliefs in certain areas. Anytime you use the words “I can’t,” “I have to,” or “I’m not good at,” you’ve discovered a potential Limiting Belief. Most of the time, taking a moment to question the belief is all you need to do to break it. “Is that really true?” and “How do I know that’s true?” are very powerful and versatile Self-Elicitation questions.
当您考虑做一些让您感到不舒服的事情时，例如申请新工作或向新的潜在客户出售要约，也可能会出现限制信念。拒绝和不赞成的画面开始闪过你的脑海，你的第一个冲动是在进行单一测试或收集真实反馈之前得出“这行不通”的结论。
Limiting Beliefs may also appear when you consider doing things that make you uncomfortable, like applying for a new job or selling an offer to a new prospect. Images of rejection and disapproval start flashing through your mind, and your first impulse is to conclude “this won’t work” before conducting a single test or gathering real feedback.
对于这些类型的情况，这里有一个有用的经验法则：让对方告诉你不。这是一个值得养成的习惯：你可能认为当你提出要求或提出想法时会被拒绝，但让对方说出来而不是假设它是给定的。您会惊奇地发现自己经常能得到想要的东西，即使您认为机会很小。
Here’s a useful rule of thumb for these types of situations: make the other party tell you no. This is a Habit worth installing: you may believe you’re going to be turned down when you make a request or propose an idea, but make the other party say it instead of assuming it’s a given. You’ll be surprised at how often you get what you want, even when you believe the odds are slim.
您选择应对挑战的方式决定了成功与否你会成为。重要的是要认识到你没有“根本缺陷”——没有什么是你学不会或做不到的。这可能需要时间和精力，但如果你付出努力，你会有所进步。
The way you choose to respond to challenges determines how successful you will become. It’s important to realize that you have no “fundamental defects”—there’s nothing that you’re incapable of learning or doing. It may take time and effort, but you’ll improve if you make the effort.
将您的思想视为肌肉是帮助它成长的最佳方式。
Viewing your mind as a muscle is the best way to help it grow.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/limiting-belief/
不当投资
Malinvestment
我们的错误肯定不是那么严重的事情。在这样一个世界上，尽管我们非常谨慎，但我们仍然肯定会招致他们，因此，为他们着想，保持某种轻松的心情似乎比这种过度紧张更为健康。
Our errors are surely not such awfully solemn things. In a world where we are so certain to incur them in spite of all our caution, a certain lightness of heart seems healthier than this excessive nervousness on their behalf.
——威廉·詹姆斯，19 世纪的医生和先驱心理学家
—WILLIAM JAMES, NINETEENTH-CENTURY DOCTOR AND PIONEERING PSYCHOLOGIST
通常，我们做出的决定并不像我们预期的那样：不必要的采购、糟糕的雇佣、糟糕的投资和浪费的能源。
Often, we make decisions that don’t turn out the way we expect: unnecessary purchases, bad hires, poor investments, and wasted energy.
这种类型的错误称为Malinvestment：“不良”或“不良”投资。坏或差的含义是可变的，但它几乎总是与“那太蠢了……”的感觉联系在一起。. . 多么浪费！
This type of error is called Malinvestment: a “bad” or “poor” investment. The meaning of bad or poor is variable, but it’s almost always tied up with a feeling of “That was dumb . . . what a waste!”
不当投资非常普遍。你看不到未来，每当你进行购买或投资时间和精力时，这种不确定性都会带来很大的错误风险。
Malinvestment is very common. You can’t see the future, and that Uncertainty introduces a significant risk of error whenever you make a purchase or investment of time and energy.
很容易对 Malinvestment 感到难过：犯错误从来都不是一件有趣的事。然而，感觉太糟糕是一种事后偏见：如果你当时知道你现在知道的，你就不会做你所做的。
It’s easy to feel bad about Malinvestment: making mistakes is never fun. Feeling too bad, however, is a form of Hindsight Bias: if you knew then what you know now, you wouldn’t have done what you did.
有时，Malinvestment 看起来像是一个直截了当的错误——一个错误。您认为这项投资是有前途的、明智的或审慎的，但事实证明并非如此。这通常采用以下形式：
Sometimes, Malinvestment looks like a straightforward mistake—an error. You thought the investment was promising, wise, or prudent, and it turns out it wasn’t. This usually takes the form of:
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购买您不使用的物品。
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Buying items you don’t use.
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购买无法使用或出现故障的产品。
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Purchasing a product that doesn’t work or malfunctions.
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您的偏好、需求或优先事项发生变化，使过去的投资变得过时。
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A change in your preferences, needs, or priorities that makes past investments obsolete.
这些错误通常来自在做出购买决定之前没有足够的信息。您通常可以通过以下方式防止这些类型的错误：
These errors often come from not having enough information before making a purchase decision. You can often prevent these types of errors by:
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投资前收集更多信息。
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Collecting more information before you invest.
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在投资之前更加勤奋地评估需求和优先事项。
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Being more diligent about evaluating needs and priorities before investing.
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仅投资于解决明确的、当前的、反复出现的、紧迫的或重要的需求或问题。
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Investing only to solve a clear, present, recurring, immediate, or important need or problem.
其他形式的不正当投资看起来效率低下：不必要的资源浪费。这通常采用以下形式：
Other forms of Malinvestment look like inefficiency: an unnecessary waste of resources. This usually takes the form of:
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无事故地支付保险费。
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Paying Insurance premiums without incident.
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构建和维护您永远不需要使用的备份系统和故障保险。
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Building and maintaining backup systems and Fail-safes you never need to use.
重要的是要认识到，在处理不确定性和风险时，这种类型的错误投资非常普遍。如果您不能或不愿意自行减轻某些常见或较大的风险，支付保险费通常是明智之举。
It’s important to realize that this type of Malinvestment is very common when dealing with Uncertainty and risk. Paying Insurance premiums is usually a wise thing to do if you’re not able or willing to mitigate certain common or large risks on your own.
如果您最终没有收到保险索赔，那么您的保费并没有真正“浪费”，因为您支付的费用是为了减轻非常真实的风险。如果你能看到未来，你会省钱，但你做不到。只要您不为保险支付过高的费用，为减轻主要风险而支付费用就是一个不错的决定。
If you don’t end up collecting a claim on the Insurance, your premiums weren’t really “wasted,” in the sense that you were paying to mitigate a very real risk. You would’ve saved money if you could see the future, but you can’t. Paying to mitigate major risks is a good decision as long as you don’t overpay for the Insurance.
当您尝试做一些新的或不同的事情时，您一定会犯一些错误。将时间、精力或精力投入到某件事上，结果却无法如您所愿，这几乎是可以肯定的：
When you’re trying to do something new or different, you’re bound to make a few mistakes. Investing time, energy, or effort in something that doesn’t work out the way you hoped is almost a certainty:
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开始以某种方式做某事，却发现行不通。
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Starting to do something in a certain way, only to find out it won’t work.
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以一种方式做某事，然后在快完成时发现更好的方法。
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Doing something one way, then discovering a better way when you’re almost done.
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破坏了一些重要的东西，然后必须修复它。
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Breaking something important, then having to fix it.
在这些情况下，Malinvestment 是一种形式的学费：这是您为了解更多有关主题或感兴趣的领域而付出的代价。只要学费并不太高，一定数量的错误可以教会你很多关于什么是重要的，什么是有效的，什么是将来不应该做的。
In these cases, Malinvestment is a form of tuition: it’s the price you’re paying to learn more about the topic or area of interest. As long as the tuition costs aren’t too steep, a certain amount of error can teach you a lot about what’s important, what works, and what not to do in the future.
通常，明智的做法是寻求一定程度的恶意投资作为探索的一种形式。你永远不会拥有完美的信息，你永远不会在开始之前找到“最佳”或“完美”的策略。如果你等到你 100% 确定你已经找到了最好的方法才开始，你永远不会开始。
Often, it’s wise to seek out a certain level of Malinvestment as a form of Exploration. You’ll never have perfect information, and you’ll never find the “optimal” or “perfect” strategy before you begin. If you wait until you’re 100 percent certain you’ve found the best possible approach before you begin, you’ll never get started.
这里有一个有助于克服这种倾向的有用问题：“我要多快才能开始犯错？” 你越快投入并开始尝试做你想做的事，你就会学得越快——错误等等。
Here’s a useful question that’s helpful in overcoming this tendency: “How quickly can I start making mistakes?” The faster you jump in and start trying to do what you want to be able to do, the faster you’ll learn—errors and all.
如有疑问，宁愿选择不完美的实验。
When in doubt, err on the side of imperfect experimentation.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/malinvestment/
选择的必要性
The Necessity of Choice
哦！一个人可能知道/今天的事情结束之前，在它到来之前；/ 但一天结束就足够了 / 然后结束就知道了。
O! that a man might know / The end of this day’s business, ere it come; / But it sufficeth that the day will end / And then the end is known.
——威廉·莎士比亚，凯撒大帝
—WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE, JULIUS CAESAR
我们生活在一个权衡取舍的世界里：你的时间、注意力和精力总是有竞争需求。你可以学会以更聪明的方式使用你有限的资源，但最终，你有责任决定做什么和放弃什么。
We live in a world of Trade-offs: you will always have competing demands for your time, attention, and energy. You can learn to use your limited resources in smarter ways, but in the end, you are responsible for deciding what to do and what to drop.
没有神奇的公式或完美的系统可以让你不费力气、没有压力、没有困难、没有成本地完成你曾经想完成的一切。
There is no magic formula or perfect system that will allow you to accomplish everything you’ve ever wanted to accomplish without effort, without stress, without hardship, and without cost.
一旦你完全接受你的时间、精力、注意力和财力都是有限的，你既不是无所不知也不是无所不能的，并且你始终保留着为自己思考和行动的责任，你就处于一个很好的位置朝着对您重要且有意义的目标不断取得进展。
Once you fully accept the reality that your time, energy, attention, and financial resources are limited, that you are neither omniscient nor omnipotent, and that you always retain the responsibility to think and act for yourself, you’re in a good position to make consistent progress toward Goals that are important and meaningful to you.
大多数时间管理和生产力问题都归结为“我怎样才能在有限的时间和有限的精力下完成太多的工作？”选择的必要性是思考这一基本挑战的有用方法：最好以有意识和深思熟虑的方式进行个人权衡。
Most time-management and productivity questions boil down to “How can I complete too much work in not enough time, with limited energy?” The Necessity of Choice is a useful way of thinking about this fundamental challenge: it’s best to make personal Trade-offs in a conscious and deliberate manner.
你总是有太多事情要做。总会有未完成的任务。如果成功意味着“完成所有事情”，那么您将终生处于压力和不满意的工作之中。更糟糕的是：如果完成所有事情是休息和恢复的先决条件，那么您就是在为自己建造一座监狱。
You will always have too much to do. There will always be tasks left undone. If success means “getting everything done,” you’re in for a lifetime of stress and unsatisfying work. Worse: if getting everything done is a prerequisite for rest and recovery, you’re building a prison of your own making.
你总是必须选择做什么和不做什么：这是现实的基本特征，而不是你可以用任何有意义的方式破解的东西。生活在有限的宇宙中，现实会迫使你做出选择。如果您不就做什么和避免什么做出明智和明确的决定，您生活的重要部分将由机会和环境决定。
You always have to choose what to do and what to leave undone: it’s a fundamental feature of reality, not something that you can hack in any meaningful way. Reality will force choices upon you by virtue of living in a finite universe. If you don’t make informed and clear Decisions about what to do and what to avoid, important parts of your life will be determined by chance and circumstance.
最好的策略是选择：以深思熟虑、知情的方式在你想要的事物之间做出有意识的权衡。选择你最想要的，放弃所有不合格的东西。
The best strategy is to choose: to make conscious Trade-offs between things you want in a deliberate, informed way. Choose what you want most and let go of everything that doesn’t make the grade.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/necessity-of-choice/
到达谬误
The Arrival Fallacy
每个人都想生活在山顶上，但所有的快乐和成长都是在攀登的过程中发生的。
Everyone wants to live on top of the mountain, but all the happiness and growth occurs while you’re climbing it.
——安迪·鲁尼，记者
—ANDY ROONEY, JOURNALIST
在与企业主、高管和企业家交谈时，我注意到一个共同的模式：没有人对他们的企业或职业感到成功或满意。总是有另一个里程碑要达到，一个新的（和更大的）销售目标要实现，或者代表“真正的成功”的更大的业务估值。
In talking with business owners, executives, and entrepreneurs, I’ve noticed a common pattern: no one feels successful or satisfied with their business or career. There’s always another milestone to reach for, a new (and larger) sales goal to achieve, or a larger business valuation that represents “true success.”
我认识许多专业人士，他们将目光投向了实质性的目标——并且已经实现了这些目标。他们没有感受到持久的成就感，而是发现自己的不满情绪持续存在，球门柱转向了一个新的、甚至更困难的目标。“当我实现这一目标时，”他们告诉自己，“我最终会感到成功和快乐。”
I know many professionals who have set their sights on substantial Goals—and have achieved them. Instead of feeling a lasting sense of accomplishment, they find their dissatisfaction persists, and the goalposts shift to a new, even more difficult objective. “When I achieve that,” they tell themselves, “I’ll finally feel successful and happy.”
到达谬误是一种识别这种模式并避免与追求目标相关的不满情绪的方法。如果您认识到您的业务、职业和生活永远不会处于永久的理想状态，并且您对意义和改进的追求将永无止境，那么欣赏您迄今为止取得的成就并庆祝成就就会变得容易得多发生时的目标和里程碑。
The Arrival Fallacy is a way to recognize this pattern and short-circuit the dissatisfaction associated with pursuing Goals. If you recognize that your business, career, and life will never be in a permanent ideal state and there will be no end to your search for meaning and improvement, it becomes much easier to appreciate what you’ve achieved to date and celebrate the accomplishment of Goals and milestones as they occur.
将您当前的目标视为路标，而不是最终目的地：它们是引导您的注意力、精力和努力的有用方法。当您实现目标时，总会有其他事情需要努力或改进——这是一件好事。无论您选择做什么，您都永远不会缺少有趣、高效或有价值的方式来投资您的每一天。
Think of your current objectives as waypoints, not final destinations: they’re useful ways to orient and direct your attention, energy, and effort. When you accomplish your objective, there will always be something else to work on or improve—and that’s a good thing. No matter what you choose to do, you will never lack for interesting, productive, or valuable ways to invest your days.
这种思路还可以让您在朝着自己想要的目标努力时更容易休息、恢复和享受生活。将自己工作到筋疲力尽或对您的健康、兴趣或人际关系做出严重的权衡，您将无法达到必杀技。雄心和动力可以带来巨大的好处，但如果您不注意如何应用它们，它们也可能导致自我毁灭的行为。
This line of thought also makes it easier to rest, recover, and enjoy your life as you work toward what you want. You won’t reach nirvana by working yourself to exhaustion or making severe Trade-offs concerning your health, interests, or personal relationships. Ambition and drive can produce wonderful benefits, but they can also lead to self-destructive behaviors if you’re not mindful of how you apply them.
“成功”不是永久存在的状态，因此为了追求成功而放弃一切是没有意义的。相反，定义你想要什么，并继续朝着它前进。当你到达那里时，庆祝你的胜利，规划新的路线，并继续前进。
“Success” is not a permanent State of Being, so it makes no sense to give up everything in a futile attempt to pursue it. Instead, define what you want, and keep moving towards it. When you get there, celebrate your victory, chart a new course, and keep going.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/arrival-fallacy/
8个
8
与他人合作
WORKING WITH OTHERS
带走我的人但离开我的工厂，很快工厂地板上就会长草。拿走我的工厂，留下我的人，很快我们就会有一个新的更好的工厂。
Take away my people but leave my factories, and soon grass will grow on factory floors. Take away my factories but leave my people, and soon we will have a new and better factory.
——安德鲁·卡内基，十九世纪的工业家
—ANDREW CARNEGIE, NINETEENTH-CENTURY INDUSTRIALIST
与他人合作是工作和生活中无时不在的一部分：即使您愿意，也无法逃避。客户、员工、承包商和合作伙伴都是具有独特动机和愿望的个体。如果你想在这个世界上做得很好，那么了解如何与他人合作并通过他人完成工作是值得的。
Working with other people is an ever-present part of business and life: you can’t escape it, even if you want to. Customers, employees, contractors, and partners are all individuals with their own unique motivations and desires. If you want to do well in this world, it pays to understand how to get things done with and through other people.
在本章中，我们将讨论如何与他人良好合作。您将学习如何以高效且有效的方式进行沟通，赢得他人的尊重和信任，认识到团队互动的局限性和陷阱，以及领导或管理团队以实现有意义的目标。
In this chapter, we’ll discuss how to work well with others. You’ll learn how to communicate in an efficient and effective way, earn the respect and trust of others, recognize the limitations and pitfalls of group interactions, and lead or manage a team of people to accomplish meaningful objectives.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/working-with-others/
力量
Power
武力是无敌的，但它的胜利是短暂的。. . 几乎所有的男人都能经受住逆境，但如果你想考验一个人的品格，就给他力量。
Force is all-conquering, but its victories are short-lived . . . Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.
——亚伯拉罕·林肯，美国第十六任总统
—ABRAHAM LINCOLN, SIXTEENTH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
所有的人际关系都基于权力——影响他人行为的能力。我们永远无法控制我们在知觉控制一节中讨论的那种意义上的人——我们无法直接访问使人们做他们所做的事情的内在过程。我们所能做的就是以鼓励人们按照我们的建议去做的方式行事。
All human relationships are based on Power—the ability to influence the actions of other people. We can never control people in the sense that we discussed in the section on Perceptual Control—we don’t have direct access to the inner processes that make people do the things they do. All we can do is act in ways that encourage people to do what we suggest.
权力的使用采取两种基本形式之一：影响或强迫。影响力是一种鼓励他人接受你建议的能力。强迫症是强迫别人按照你的命令去做的能力。
The use of Power takes one of two fundamental forms: influence or compulsion. Influence is the ability to encourage someone else to want what you suggest. Compulsion is the ability to force someone else to do what you command.
出于忠诚度或技艺感，鼓励员工“多走一步”就是影响力。通过威胁如果员工拒绝就解雇他们来强迫员工在周末工作是强迫行为。员工采取的行动可能相同，但他们对采取这些行动的感受会大不相同。
Encouraging an employee to “go the extra mile” out of a sense of loyalty or craftsmanship is influence. Forcing the employee to work over the weekend by threatening to fire them if they refuse is compulsion. The actions that employee takes may be the same, but how they feel about taking those actions will be quite different.
总的来说，影响比强制有效得多。绝大多数人都拒绝被迫违背自己的意愿或更好的判断去做某事，因此依靠强迫来完成事情是一个糟糕的策略。指挥周围的人只会让他们不喜欢你，他们会想方设法报复或尽早退出与你的合作。另一方面，影响力是可持续的——鼓励人们想要你想要的东西可以让你得到你想要的结果，而不会激起不必要的恶意。
On the whole, influence is much more effective than compulsion. The vast majority of people resist being forced to do something against their will or better judgment, so relying on compulsion to get things done is a poor strategy. Bossing people around only serves to make them dislike you, and they’ll find ways to retaliate or quit working with you at the earliest available opportunity. Influence, on the other hand, is sustainable—encouraging people to want what you want gets you the results you’re looking for without provoking unnecessary ill will.
不管喜欢与否，每个人都依靠权力来完成工作。权力是一种中性的工具——可以用来行善也可以用来作恶。权力代表你通过他人完成事情的能力——你拥有的权力越多，你能做的事情就越多。只要您尊重他人的权利，寻求增加您的权力并没有错。你拥有的权力越多，你能完成的事情就越多，但权力越大，责任也越大。
Like it or not, everyone relies on Power to get things done. Power is a neutral tool—one that can be used for good or ill. Power represents your ability to get things done through other people—the more Power you have, the more things you can do. There’s nothing wrong with seeking to increase your Power, provided you respect the rights of other people. The more Power you have, the more you can accomplish, but with great Power comes great responsibility.
大群人之间的互动变得政治化的原因是权力永远存在的本质。如果你没有计划，你的行动将由别人决定。拒绝努力朝着你认为最好的方向前进，你就是在把权力让给那些有计划的人。拒绝理解权力的重要性，你可能会发现你所拥有的任何影响都会迅速消失。获胜的唯一方法是决定比赛。
The reason that interactions among large groups of people become political is the ever-present nature of Power. If you don’t have a plan, your actions will be determined by someone else. By refusing to make the effort to move in the direction you think is best, you’re ceding Power to those who do have plans. Refuse to understand that Power is important and you’re likely to find that any influence you have rapidly disappears. The only way to win is to decide to play.
增加权力的最好方法是做一些能增加影响力和声誉的事情。越多人了解您的能力并尊重您建立的声誉，您的权力就越大。
The best way to increase your Power is to do things that increase your influence and Reputation. The more people know your capabilities and respect the Reputation you’ve built, the more Power you will have.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/power/
比较优势
Comparative Advantage
做一流的自己，而不是二流的别人。
Be a first-rate version of yourself, not a second-rate version of someone else.
——朱迪·嘉兰，演员兼歌手
—JUDY GARLAND, ACTRESS AND SINGER
与其他人一起工作的想法的本质问题是，为什么首先要与其他人一起工作？如果你不能控制他们并让他们一直做你想让他们做的事，那又何必呢？
Essential to the idea of working with other people is the question, Why work with other people in the first place? If you can’t control them and get them to do what you want them to do all the time, why bother?
答案是比较优势，这个概念起源于经济学的“沉闷科学”。归因于大卫李嘉图 1817年关于政治经济学和税收原则的文章， “李嘉图比较优势法则”为国际政治问题提供了答案：各国经济自给自足并自己生产一切是否更好，还是专门生产某些商品，然后相互交易？
The answer is Comparative Advantage, a concept that originated in the “dismal science” of economics. Attributed to David Ricardo’s 1817 text On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, “Ricardo’s Law of Comparative Advantage” provided an answer to a question of international politics: is it better for the economies of countries to be self-sufficient and produce everything themselves, or specialize in producing certain goods, then trade with one another?
李嘉图以葡萄牙和英国为例，计算出即使两国都能生产布料和酒，但英国生产布料更省力，而葡萄牙更擅长生产葡萄酒。因此，与其浪费时间和金钱努力做他们不擅长的事情，葡萄牙和英格兰如果专业化，然后相互交易，情况会更好。
Using Portugal and England as examples, Ricardo calculated that even if both countries were capable of producing cloth and wine, England could produce cloth with much less effort, and Portugal was much better at producing wine. As a result, instead of wasting time and money struggling to do something they weren’t good at, Portugal and England would both be better off if they specialized, then traded with each other.
比较优势意味着利用你的优势比弥补你的弱点更好。首先，打破所有规则，作者：马库斯Buckingham 和 Curt Coffman，以及Tom Rath 的StrengthsFinder 2.0，作者分享了盖洛普对人类生产力的综合研究结果。事实证明，比较优势既适用于个人，也适用于国家：如果经营企业的个人专注于他们最擅长的领域，并与其他专家合作以完成他们需要的一切，那么企业就会运作得更好。“基于优势的管理”只是比较优势的另一个术语。
Comparative Advantage means it’s better to capitalize on your strengths than to shore up your weaknesses. In First, Break All The Rules, by Marcus Buckingham and Curt Coffman, and StrengthsFinder 2.0, by Tom Rath, the authors share the results of Gallup’s comprehensive research on human productivity. As it turns out, Comparative Advantage applies as much to individuals as it does to countries: businesses work better if the individuals who operate them focus on what they’re best at, working with other specialists to accomplish everything else they need. “Strengths-based management” is just another term for Comparative Advantage.
比较优势解释了为什么与承包商或员工合作比尝试自己做所有事情通常更有意义。如果您想盖房子，聘请总承包商和每天从事项目所需工作的专家可能更有效。您可以尝试自己做，但除非您知道自己在做什么，否则可能需要更长的时间，而且结果也不会那么好。
Comparative Advantage explains why it often makes sense to work with contractors or employees rather than try to do everything yourself. If you want to build a house, it’s probably more efficient to hire a general contractor and specialists who do the kind of work the project requires every day. You could try to do it yourself, but unless you know what you’re doing, it’ll probably take longer, and the results won’t be as good.
比较优势还解释了为什么多元化团队的表现优于同质化团队。拥有各种各样具有不同技能和背景的团队成员是一项重要资产：它增加了您的一名队友在任何给定情况下知道该做什么的可能性。如果每个团队成员都拥有相同的技能和相同的背景，那么团队很可能会陷入困境或犯下可预防的错误。
Comparative Advantage also explains why diverse teams outperform homogenous teams. Having a wide variety of team members with different skills and backgrounds is a major asset: it increases the probability that one of your teammates will know what to do in any given circumstance. If every team member has the same skills and the same background, it’s far more likely the team will get stuck or make a preventable error.
随着时间的推移，自力更生会提高您的灵活性和知识，但过度自力更生是错误的。我大力提倡自我教育和学习如何自己做事，但将 DIY 道德发挥到极致可能弊大于利。与他人合作可以帮助您更快地完成更多工作，并提高最终结果的质量。就连梭罗也时不时离开瓦尔登湖去城里买东西。
Self-reliance improves your flexibility and knowledge over time, but too much self-reliance is a mistake. I’m a huge advocate of self-education and learning how to do things yourself, but taking the DIY ethic to an extreme can do more harm than good. Working with others can help you get more done, faster, and improve the quality of the end result. Even Thoreau left Walden Pond every once in a while to buy things in town.
与他人合作时自我教育的主要好处是了解技能是什么样的。您也许可以在世界各地在线聘请一名程序员，但如果您自己从未做过任何编程，您将很难判断他们的工作是否出色。然而，学一点编程，你识别优秀程序员的能力就会提高，使你更有可能识别熟练的同事和合作伙伴。
The major benefit of self-education when working with others is knowing what skill looks like. You may be able to hire a programmer halfway around the world online, but if you’ve never done any programming yourself, you’re going to have a difficult time figuring out whether or not their work is good. Learn a little programming, however, and your ability to identify good programmers will increase, making you more likely to identify skilled colleagues and partners.
用约翰多恩不朽的名言来说：“没有人是一座孤岛。” 专注于你能做好的事情，并与他人合作完成剩下的事情。
In the immortal words of John Donne: “No man is an island.” Focus on what you can do well and work with others to accomplish the rest.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/comparative-advantage/
通信开销
Communication Overhead
如果您必须用一个词来确定人类尚未实现并且永远不会实现其全部潜力的原因，那么这个词就是：“会议”。
If you had to identify, in one word, the reason why the human race has not achieved, and never will achieve, its full potential, that word would be: “meetings.”
—戴夫·巴里 (DAVE BARRY)，喜剧演员和报纸专栏作家
—DAVE BARRY, COMEDIAN AND NEWSPAPER COLUMNIST
高绩效的手术团队、军事单位和运动团队往往规模小且专注，这是有原因的：花在沟通和协调上的时间过多会降低团队的效率。
There’s a reason high-performing surgical teams, military units, and sports teams tend to be small and focused: too much time spent in communication and coordination can kill a team’s effectiveness.
沟通开销是您花在与团队成员沟通而不是完成富有成效的工作上的时间比例。为了让每个人都保持一致，沟通是必要的。您需要合作的团队成员越多，您就越需要与他们沟通以协调行动。
Communication Overhead is the proportion of time you spend communicating with members of your team instead of getting productive work done. In order to keep everyone on the same page, communication is necessary. The more team members you have to work with, the more you have to communicate with them to coordinate action.
随着与您一起工作的人数的增加，沟通开销呈几何级数增长，直到每个人必须投入到团队沟通中的总时间百分比接近 100%。在一定的阈值之后，每个额外的团队成员都会削弱团队除了交流之外做任何事情的能力。
As the number of people you work with increases, Communication Overhead increases geometrically until the total percentage of time each individual must devote to group communication approaches 100 percent. After a certain threshold, each additional team member diminishes the capacity of the group to do anything other than communicate.
大公司的速度很慢，因为它们受到通信开销的困扰。如果您负责与超过 5 到 8 人的团队一起工作，那么您至少 80% 的工作将是与您的同事进行沟通。目标、计划和想法毫无价值，除非每个相关人员都充分理解它们并采取行动。
Large companies are slow because they suffer from Communication Overhead. If you’re responsible for working with a group of more than five to eight people, at least 80 percent of your job will be communicating with the people you work with. Objectives, plans, and ideas are worthless unless everyone involved understands them well enough to take action.
我在 P&G 工作时每天都会遇到这种现象——我的一个主要项目涉及制定一个全公司范围的战略来衡量某些营销策略。因为这是一个全球项目，所以我的建议需要全公司数十个人的意见和/或批准才能实施。
I experienced this phenomenon daily while working at P&G—one of my primary projects involved creating a company-wide strategy on how to measure certain marketing tactics. Because it was a global project, my recommendation required input and/or approval from dozens of individuals across the company before anything could be implemented.
参与其中的每个人都有不同的想法，对各种方法无休止地争论不休，并且希望在不必承担太多工作或费用的情况下分享荣誉。我花了三个月的全职工作来整理一份可行的提案。与此同时，没有完成任何实际工作——我 99% 的时间都花在了与小组的其他成员交流。这就是通信开销。
Everyone involved had different ideas, argued endlessly over various approaches, and wanted a share of the credit without having to commit to too much work or expense. I spent three months of full-time effort putting together a workable proposal. In the meantime, no actual work was being accomplished—99 percent of my time was spent doing little more than communicating with other members of the group. That’s Communication Overhead.
在《Beyond Bureaucracy 》一书中，1 Derek Sheane 提出了“官僚崩溃的 8 种症状”，这些症状出现在遭受沟通开销的团队中：
In the book Beyond Bureaucracy,1 Derek Sheane proposed “8 Symptoms of Bureaucratic Breakdown” that appear in teams suffering from Communication Overhead:
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看不见的决定。没有人知道决策是如何或在何处做出的，决策过程也没有透明度。
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The Invisible Decision. No one knows how or where decisions are made, and there is no transparency in the decision-making process.
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未竟之事。开始的任务太多，执行到最后的任务却很少。
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Unfinished business. Too many tasks are started but very few are carried through to the end.
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协调瘫痪。如果不检查大量相互关联的单元，就什么也做不了。
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Coordination paralysis. Nothing can be done without checking with a host of interconnected units.
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没有什么新鲜事。没有激进的想法、发明或横向思维——普遍缺乏主动性。
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Nothing new. There are no radical ideas, inventions, or lateral thinking—a general lack of initiative.
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伪问题。小问题变得不成比例地放大了。
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Pseudo-problems. Minor issues become magnified out of all proportion.
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四面楚歌的中心。中心与地方/区域单位争夺一致性和控制权。
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Embattled center. The center battles for consistency and control against local/regional units.
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消极的最后期限。工作的最后期限变得比所完成工作的质量更重要。
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Negative deadlines. The deadlines for work become more important than the quality of the work being done.
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输入支配。个人对输入做出反应——即，无论放入他们的收件箱中的什么——而不是使用他们自己的主动性。
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Input domination. Individuals react to inputs—i.e., whatever gets put in their in-tray—as opposed to using their own initiative.
如果这些品质中的任何一个描述了您的日常工作经历，那么您的团队可能正在遭受沟通开销的困扰。
If any of these qualities describe your daily work experience, your team is probably suffering from a case of Communication Overhead.
Communication Overhead 的解决方案很简单但并不容易：让您的团队尽可能小。你会把人排除在外，但这就是重点——包括他们会导致更多的工作而不是创造收益。从团队中移除不必要的人将节省每个人的时间并产生更好的结果。
The solution to Communication Overhead is simple but not easy: make your team as small as possible. You’ll be leaving people out, but that’s the point—including them is causing more work than it’s creating in benefits. Removing unnecessary people from the team will save everyone’s time and produce better results.
对有效团队合作的研究通常建议以三到八人为一组进行工作。在Peopleware中，项目经理 Tom DeMarco 和 Timothy Lister 建议让团队保持“精英和手术”。小团体往往比大团体更有效，因为沟通开销减少了——每个团队成员都增加了更多的网络能力团队比他们需要的沟通更有效。一旦团队规模扩大到 8 人以上，每增加一个团队成员就需要更多的沟通投资，而不是他们增加的生产能力。
Studies of effective teamwork usually recommend working in groups of three to eight people. In Peopleware, project managers Tom DeMarco and Timothy Lister recommend keeping teams “elite and surgical.” Small groups tend to be more effective than large groups because Communication Overhead is reduced—each team member adds more networking capacity to the team than they require in communication to be effective. Once group size expands above eight, each additional team member requires more investment in communication than they add in productive capacity.
如果您希望您的团队发挥最佳表现，请让您的团队尽可能小且自主。
If you want your team to perform at its best, make your teams as small and autonomous as possible.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/communication-overhead/
重要性
Importance
人性中最深刻的原则是渴望被欣赏。
The deepest principle in human nature is the craving to be appreciated.
——威廉·詹姆斯，19 世纪的医生和先驱心理学家
—WILLIAM JAMES, NINETEENTH-CENTURY DOCTOR AND PIONEERING PSYCHOLOGIST
每个人都有感觉重要的基本需要。无论您是在与客户、员工、熟人还是朋友打交道，都没有关系。你越强调他们的重要性，他们就越重视与你的关系。
Everyone has a fundamental need to feel Important. It doesn’t matter if you’re dealing with a customer, an employee, an acquaintance, or a friend. The more you emphasize their Importance, the more they’ll value their relationship with you.
让某人觉得自己渺小或不重要，你会在创纪录的时间内赢得他们的敌意。当您与正在检查电话的人交谈或打断您的谈话以接听电话时，您感觉如何？
Make someone feel small or unimportant and you’ll earn their enmity in record time. How do you feel when you’re talking with someone who’s checking their phone, or interrupts your conversation to take a phone call?
你对别人越感兴趣，他们就会越觉得重要。当一个下流的汽车推销员问你过得怎么样时，你觉得自己不被重视的原因是你知道这个问题并不表示真正的兴趣——这是完成交易的一种手段。人们想要感觉自己很重要，即使他们不从你这里购买，这是罐头销售脚本失败的地方。
The more interest you take in other people, the more Important they will feel. The reason you don’t feel valued when a sleazy car salesman asks how you’re doing is that you know the question doesn’t indicate genuine interest—it’s a means to close the deal. People want to feel Important even if they don’t buy from you, which is where canned sales scripts fail.
幸运的是，如果你努力表现在当下并保持好奇心，让别人觉得自己很重要并不是特别困难。它与全神贯注有关：全神贯注、专心倾听、表达兴趣并提出问题。成为某人注意力的完全焦点在当今世界是如此罕见，以至于它几乎立即产生令人难忘的影响。
Fortunately, making others feel Important is not particularly difficult if you make an effort to be present and curious. It has to do with undivided focus: paying attention, listening intently, expressing interest, and asking questions. Being the complete focus of someone’s attention is so rare in today’s world that it makes a memorable impact almost immediately.
培养对他人的真正兴趣大有帮助。当人们在你身边时，你越让他们觉得重要，他们就会越喜欢你并想和你在一起。
Cultivating a genuine interest in other people goes a very long way. The more Important you make people feel when they’re around you, the more they’ll like you and want to be around you.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/importance/
安全
Safety
想想那些通常不同意你的人。看看他们在大错特错时看起来有多自信？这正是你对他们的看法。
Consider the people who routinely disagree with you. See how confident they look while being dead wrong? That’s exactly how you look to them.
—斯科特·亚当斯，漫画家和呆伯特的创造者
—SCOTT ADAMS, CARTOONIST AND CREATOR OF DILBERT
“这是我听过的最愚蠢的事情！说真的——你开口之前想清楚了吗？”
“That’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard! Seriously—did you even think that through before you opened your mouth?”
在会议上听过这样的评论吗？我有。
Ever heard a comment like that in a meeting? I have.
这种类型的互动一直在发生。在What Got You Here Won't Get You There中，资深执行教练 Marshall Goldsmith 解释说，高级管理人员经常破坏或贬低他们的同事和下属，以使自己感觉更聪明或更重要，从而关闭有效的沟通。
This type of interaction happens all the time. In What Got You Here Won’t Get You There, veteran executive coach Marshall Goldsmith explains that high-level executives often undermine or put down their peers and subordinates to make themselves feel smarter or more Important, shutting down effective communication.
只有当双方都感到安全时，才能进行有效的沟通。一旦人们在谈话中开始感到不重要或受到威胁，他们就会开始“阻挠”，切断沟通。受到威胁的一方可能会继续互动，但在精神上和情感上，他们已经退出了谈话。
Effective communication can only occur when both parties feel safe. As soon as people start to feel unimportant or threatened in a conversation, they start “stonewalling,” shutting down communication. The threatened party may continue to interact, but mentally and emotionally, they’ve withdrawn from the conversation.
防止阻碍的唯一方法是让与您交流的人对您坦诚相待，感到安全。正如人们有感觉重要的基本需求一样，人们在表达自己的想法和谈论对他们来说重要的事情时也需要感到安全。一旦他们开始感觉到自己因为自己的想法或所持职位而受到评判、评估或看不起，他们就会停止工作。
The only way to prevent stonewalling is to make the person you’re communicating with feel safe being open and honest with you. Just as people have a fundamental need to feel Important, people also have a need to feel safe when expressing what’s on their minds and talking about things that are Important to them. The moment they begin to sense they’re being judged, evaluated, or looked down upon because of an idea they have or a position they hold, they’ll shut down.
在Crucial Conversations中，一本关于在与同事和亲人讨论重要问题时保持安全感的书，作者 Kerry Patterson、Joseph Grenny、Ron McMillan 和 Al Switzler 建议使用 STATE 模型进行交流，而不会引起愤怒或防御：
In Crucial Conversations, a book about maintaining a sense of Safety while discussing important issues with colleagues and loved ones, authors Kerry Patterson, Joseph Grenny, Ron McMillan, and Al Switzler recommend using the STATE model to communicate without provoking anger or defensiveness:
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分享你的事实。事实比结论更少争议、更有说服力，也更少侮辱人，所以先以事实为先。
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Share your facts. Facts are less controversial, more persuasive, and less insulting than conclusions, so lead with them first.
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讲述你的故事。从你的角度解释情况，注意避免侮辱或评判，这会让对方感到不安全。
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Tell your story. Explain the situation from your point of view, taking care to avoid insulting or judging, which makes the other person feel less safe.
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求别人的路。要求听听对方对情况的看法，他们的意图和想要的东西。
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Ask for others’ paths. Ask to hear the other person’s side of the situation, what they intended, and what they want.
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试探性地谈。避免结论、判断和最后通牒。
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Talk tentatively. Avoid conclusions, judgments, and ultimatums.
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鼓励测试。提出建议、征求意见并进行讨论，直到达成富有成效且双方都满意的行动方案。
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Encourage testing. Make suggestions, ask for input, and discuss until you reach a productive and mutually satisfactory course of action.
有些人比其他人更敏感。更加了解您的言行以及他们可能如何被不同态度的人解释是成功的一半。如果你想以一种既能从谈话中受益又能完成某件事的方式与某人交流，那么双方都需要感到安全。实现这一目标的最佳方法是避免做出判断，并专注于让对方感到重要。关键对话、戴尔·卡内基的《如何赢得朋友和影响他人》以及丹尼尔·戈尔曼的《情商》等书籍可以帮助您了解如何做。
Some people are more sensitive than others. Becoming more aware of your words and actions and how they might be interpreted by people with different attitudes is half the battle. If you want to communicate with someone in such a way that you both benefit from the conversation and get something done, both parties need to feel safe. The best way to make that happen is to avoid passing judgment and focus on making the other party feel Important. Books like Crucial Conversations, Dale Carnegie’s How to Win Friends and Influence People, and Daniel Goleman’s Emotional Intelligence can help you learn how.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/safety/
黄金三连冠
The Golden Trifecta
任何傻瓜都会批评、谴责和抱怨——大多数傻瓜都会这样做。
Any fool can criticize, condemn, and complain—and most fools do.
—DALE CARNEGIE，《如何赢得朋友和影响他人》一书的作者
—DALE CARNEGIE, AUTHOR OF HOW TO WIN FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE PEOPLE
如果人们有一种基本的需要，即感到重要和安全，您将如何实现这一目标？
If people have a fundamental need to feel Important and Safe, how do you go about making that happen?
黄金三连冠是我个人对如何赢得朋友和影响他人的三字总结。如果你想让别人在你身边感到重要和安全，请永远记住以欣赏、礼貌和尊重的态度对待他人。
The Golden Trifecta is my personal three-word summary of How to Win Friends and Influence People. If you want to make others feel Important and Safe around you, always remember to treat people with appreciation, courtesy, and respect.
欣赏意味着对他人为您所做的一切表示感谢，即使它并不十分完美。假设您正在设计一个产品，您的首席设计师向您展示了一些您认为行不通的模型。直截了当地回应，“这完全错误——再做一次”是让你的同事感到不重要和不安全的好方法。相反，表达感谢：“谢谢——很明显你为此付出了努力，我很感激。我不确定我们是否做到了，所以这里有一些想法可能会有所帮助。. ” 内容相同，但语气截然不同。
Appreciation means expressing your gratitude for what others are doing for you, even if it’s not quite perfect. Imagine that you’re designing a product, and your lead designer shows you some mockups that you believe won’t work. Bluntly responding, “This is totally wrong—do it again,” is a good way to make your colleague feel unimportant and insecure. Instead, express appreciation: “Thanks—it’s clear you worked hard on this and I appreciate that. I’m not sure we’re there yet, so here are a few ideas that may help . . .” It’s the same content, but delivered in a very different tone.
礼就是礼貌，纯粹而简单。我曾经听说礼貌被定义为“代表他人接受小的不便”，我认为这是一个非常有用的定义。为另一个人开门是一个小小的不便，但它会对他们对你的看法产生重大影响。没必要把每一个小问题都当成大事。
Courtesy is politeness, pure and simple. I once heard courtesy defined as “accepting small inconveniences on behalf of another person,” and I think that’s a very useful definition. Opening the door for another person is a small inconvenience, but it can have a major impact on how they perceive you. There’s no need to make every petty issue a big deal.
尊重是尊重他人的地位。无论您与交流对象的关系如何，如果您想让他们感到重要或安全，无论他们的社会地位有多高或多低，尊重他们都是至关重要的。
Respect is a matter of honoring the other person’s status. No matter how you relate to the person you’re communicating with, respecting them as an individual is critical if you want to make them feel Important or Safe, no matter how high or low their social status.
重要的是将黄金三连胜应用于您与其他人的所有互动，而不仅仅是您感兴趣的人。如果您曾经与对您友善但对服务员粗鲁的人共进午餐或晚餐，您就会知道我的意思是。对待他人不当会向所有人发出一个明确的信号，即您不值得信任。
It’s important to apply the Golden Trifecta to all of your interactions with other people, not just the people you’re interested in. If you’ve ever had lunch or dinner with someone who was nice to you but rude to the waitstaff, you know what I mean. Treating other people poorly sends a clear signal to everyone that you can’t be trusted.
如果您将在任何情况下都以欣赏、礼貌和尊重待人作为一项政策，其他人会在您面前感到重要和安全。
If you make it a policy to treat people with appreciation, courtesy, and respect in all circumstances, other people will feel Important and Safe in your presence.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/golden-trifecta/
原因
Reason Why
文明通过扩展我们可以不假思索地执行的操作数量而进步。
Civilization advances by extending the number of operations we can perform without thinking.
——阿尔弗雷德·诺斯·怀特海德，数学家和哲学家
—ALFRED NORTH WHITEHEAD, MATHEMATICIAN AND PHILOSOPHER
关于要求人们做某事，有一个有趣的怪癖：如果你给他们一个按你要求做的理由，他们将更有可能遵从你的要求。在影响力：说服心理学中， Robert Cialdini 博士描述了一个实验，证明了这一原则在行动中的作用。
Here’s a fascinating quirk about asking people to do something: they’ll be far more likely to comply with your request if you give them a reason to do what you ask. In Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, Dr. Robert Cialdini describes an experiment that demonstrates this principle in action.
在 20 世纪 70 年代，哈佛大学的心理学家艾伦·兰格 (Ellen Langer) 进行了一系列著名的实验，主题是服从性——是什么让人们同意一个请求。实验以哈佛校园内一台繁忙的复印机为中心。
In the 1970s, Ellen Langer, a psychologist at Harvard University, conducted a set of famous experiments on the subject of compliance—what makes people agree to a request. The experiments centered around a busy copy machine on the Harvard campus.
Langer 的学生使用各种方法询问排队等候的人是否可以使用复印机，他们是否可以移动到队伍的最前面。一个直截了当的请求在 60% 的情况下得到了满足，但 Langer 发现为请求添加一个原因可以将合规率提高到95%。即使原因是空洞的——“因为我必须复印”和“因为我上课迟到”或“因为我赶时间”一样，这种技术也能奏效。所要做的就是提供一个“因为”，这足以让人们同意这个请求。
Langer’s students asked people waiting in line to use the copy machine if they could move to the front of the line, using various approaches. A straightforward request was honored 60 percent of the time, but Langer found that adding a reason for the request increased the compliance rate to 95 percent. The technique worked even if the reason was vacuous—“because I have to make copies” worked just as well as “because I’m late for class” or “because I’m in a rush.” All the reason had to do was supply a “because,” and it was enough to make people agree to the request.
人类倾向于寻找行为原因。如果你给他们一个理由，人们会更容易接受任何请求。任何理由都行。
Humans are predisposed to look for behavioral causes. People will be more receptive to any request if you give them a Reason Why. Any reason will do.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/reason-why/
指挥官的意图
Commander’s Intent
永远不要告诉人们如何做事。告诉他们该怎么做，他们的聪明才智会让您大吃一惊。
Never tell people how to do things. Tell them what to do, and they will surprise you with their ingenuity.
——乔治·巴顿将军，二战期间美国第三集团军司令
—GENERAL GEORGE S. PATTON, COMMANDER OF THE US THIRD ARMY IN WORLD WAR II
通常，人们讨厌被告知该做什么。“微观管理”是任何工人存在的祸根——如果你是一名称职的专业人士，没有什么比其他人定义和审查你的工作到最后的细节更能贬低你的了。
As a rule, people hate to be told what to do. “Micromanagement” is the bane of any worker’s existence—if you’re a competent professional, nothing is more demeaning than someone else defining and scrutinizing your work to the last detail.
微观管理不仅烦人，而且效率低下。详细说明每一个细节不仅会让人感觉不那么重要，还会削弱他们的效率。没有一套说明，无论多么详细，都无法涵盖所有意外情况。当事情发生变化时，微观管理就会失败。
Micromanagement isn’t just annoying—it’s inefficient. Not only does spelling out every single detail make people feel less Important, it impairs their effectiveness. No set of instructions, no matter how detailed, is capable of covering every contingency. When something changes, micromanagement fails.
想一想坚持微观管理的 CEO 会变得多么不知所措——请记住，人类无法扩展。越多的人为公司工作时，CEO 必须给予更多指示以确保一切顺利进行。如果您有十名员工，微观管理会很麻烦。如果您有数百或数千，那将是一场噩梦。
Think of how overwhelmed a CEO who insists on micromanagement will become—remember, human beings don’t Scale. The more people who work for the company, the more directions the CEO must give to keep everything moving. If you have ten employees, micromanagement is a hassle. If you have hundreds or thousands, it’s a nightmare.
Commander's Intent是一种更好的委派任务的方法：每当您将任务分配给某人时，告诉他们为什么必须完成。你的代理人越了解你行为背后的目的，他们就越能在情况发生变化时做出适当的反应。
Commander’s Intent is a much better method of delegating tasks: whenever you assign a task to someone, tell them why it must be done. The more your agent understands the purpose behind your actions, the better they’ll be able to respond appropriately when the situation changes.
指挥官的意图起源于战场。如果将军详细告诉战地指挥官如何占领特定的山丘，当情况发生变化时，战地指挥官被迫返回将军那里接受新的命令，这是缓慢且低效的。如果将军向战地指挥官解释战略并解释为什么那个特定的山丘很重要以及它将如何支持整体战略，战地指挥官可以自由地使用他们对目标的了解和新的情报以支持支持的新方式行动初衷。
Commander’s Intent originated on the battlefield. If a general tells a field commander in detail how to capture a specific hill and the situation changes, the field commander is forced to return to the general for new orders, which is slow and inefficient. If the general explains the strategy to the field commander and explains why that particular hill is important and how it will support the overall strategy, the field commander is free to use their knowledge of the Goal and fresh intelligence to act in a new way that supports the original intent.
指挥官的意图减轻了通信开销。通过传达特定计划背后的意图，领导者可以降低持续沟通对整个团队成功的重要性。如果每个人都了解计划的目的，那么每个人都可以以支持该意图的方式行事，而无需持续关注。
Commander’s Intent alleviates Communication Overhead. By communicating the intent behind a certain plan, a leader can make constant communication less critical for the success of the entire team. If everyone understands the purpose of the plan, everyone can act in ways that support the intent without requiring constant attention.
当您传达计划背后的意图时，您允许与您一起工作的人在发生变化时做出响应。
When you communicate the intent behind your plans, you allow the people you work with to respond to changes as they happen.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/commanders-intent/
赢得关注
Earned Regard
你不能在你将要做的事情上建立声誉。
You can’t build a reputation on what you are going to do.
—HENRY FORD，福特汽车公司创始人和装配线先驱
—HENRY FORD, FOUNDER OF THE FORD MOTOR COMPANY AND ASSEMBLY-LINE PIONEER
在个人之间建立信任需要时间和精力。在大多数情况下，除非您表现出值得信赖和交付能力，否则其他人不会给您实质性的权力、责任或控制权。
Building Trust between individuals takes time and effort. In most situations, other people won’t give you substantial Power, responsibility, or control until you demonstrate trustworthiness and an ability to deliver.
Earned Regard是对您随着时间的推移与个人建立的信任程度的主观估计。当你展示能力时，可靠性、良好的判断力、技能或提供积极结果的能力，您获得的尊重往往会增加。当你表现出相反的情况时，你对那个人的尊重就会减少。
Earned Regard is a subjective estimate of how much Trust you have built with an individual over time. When you demonstrate competence, reliability, good judgment, skill, or the capacity to deliver positive results, your Earned Regard tends to increase. When you demonstrate the opposite, your Earned Regard with that individual decreases.
在接受 Shane Parrish 的采访时，Shopify 的联合创始人兼首席执行官 Tobi Lütke 用一个比喻的方式解释了这个想法：“信任电池”，随着时间的推移，它会根据交互的质量和数量来充电或耗尽。2这个比喻更容易以更直接、更少情绪化的方式讨论 Earned Regard：
In an interview with Shane Parrish, Tobi Lütke, cofounder and CEO of Shopify, explains this idea by way of a metaphor: the “trust battery,” which is charged or depleted based on the quality and quantity of interactions over time.2 This metaphor makes it easier to discuss Earned Regard in a more direct, less emotional way:
团队合作的关键在于你们一起工作时交流的方式，以及你们给予彼此反馈的方式。说“嘿，我喜欢和你一起工作以及你所做的工作，但你不会出现在团队会议上，我只是想让你知道这两件事相互抵消”要容易得多。这就是为什么你对团队其他成员的信任电池没有提升，即使你做得很好。” 这比说“嘿，你不关心我们吗？”要好得多。[. . .]
So much about working in teams is the way you communicate working together, and the way you give each other feedback. It’s so much easier to say, “Hey, I love working with you and the kind of work you do, but you don’t show up to the team meetings, and I just want you to know those two things offset each other. This is why your trust battery with the rest of the team is just not going up, even though you’re doing great work.” That’s a much better conversation than saying, “Hey, do you not care about us?” [. . .]
我希望 Shopify 成为一家人们拥有极大个人自主权的公司。但不可能只把它赋予每个人，因为需要赢得信任。所以，当你有这样一个概念时，你可以说，“嘿，与你周围的大多数人一起获得 80-90% 的信任电池，然后我们给你一个拥有的区域，我们相信你拥有它。人们已经这样做了。因此，我们所做的只是将一个比喻付诸实践，让人们可以参考并给人们一个目标：“嘿，如果我与团队其他成员建立信任，这就是我得到的结果。”
I want Shopify to be a company [where] people have an enormous amount of personal autonomy. But it’s not possible to just bestow that on everyone, because trust needs to be earned. And so, when you have a concept like this where you can say, “Hey, get to 80-90 percent of the trust battery with the majority of the people around you, and then we give you an area to own, and we trust that you own it.” That’s what people do already. So all we are doing is putting a metaphor into play that people can refer to and give people a goal of saying, “Hey, here’s what I get if I build trust with the rest of the team.”
系统地构建 Earned Regard 是可能的。在The Snowball System中，资深销售专家 Mo Bunnell 建议创建一个最重要的专业联系人列表，以及一个您希望与之建立新的或更牢固关系的人员列表。此 VIP 列表有两个用处：它是一个实用的清单，您可以使用它来确保您保持联系，以及一个启动工具，当您遇到您的联系人可能认为有用或有趣的任何事情时，它可以让您更容易识别。因此，与将未来的互动留给机会相比，您将发现更多进行积极互动的机会、更频繁地互动并更快地加强关系。
It’s possible to build Earned Regard in a systematic way. In The Snowball System, Mo Bunnell, a veteran sales professional, recommends creating a list of your most important professional contacts, along with a list of people with whom you’d like to establish a new or stronger relationship. This list of VIPs is useful in two ways: it’s a practical Checklist you can use to ensure you keep in contact and a Priming tool that makes it easier to recognize when you come across anything one of your contacts might find useful or interesting. As a result, you’ll identify more opportunities to have a positive interaction, interact more often, and strengthen the relationship faster than you would’ve by leaving future interactions to chance.
您与生活中的人积累的尊重越多，您的人际关系就会越牢固，您获得的机会也会越多。
The more Earned Regard you accumulate with the people in your life, the stronger your relationships will become, and the more opportunities you’ll have as a result.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/earned-regard/
旁观者冷漠
Bystander Apathy
问责制是关于一个人承担责任。如果两个人对同一个决定负责，那么没有人真正负责。
Accountability is about one person taking responsibility. If two people are accountable for the same decision, no one is really accountable.
—GLYN HOLTON，投资风险管理顾问
—GLYN HOLTON, INVESTMENT RISK MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT
长大后，我在童子军中非常活跃。标准的 Scout 计划涵盖急救、心肺复苏术和紧急情况管理——这些基本培训可让您做好处理可能面临的最常见紧急情况的准备。
Growing up, I was very active in the Boy Scouts. The standard Scout program covers first aid, CPR, and emergency management—basic training that prepares you to handle the most common emergencies you’re likely to face.
除了特定的技术，我还记得这次培训中的两个有用原则：(1) 挺身而出承担责任，除非由经验更丰富的专业人员接手，以及 (2) 每次始终将命令或请求直接发给一个特定的人。
Outside of specific techniques, I remember two useful principles from this training: (1) step up and take responsibility, unless relieved by a more experienced professional, and (2) always direct commands or requests to one specific individual at a time.
如果有人在拥挤的商店里心脏病发作，而你大喊“有人打 911”，很可能没人会打电话——周围的人越多，每个人就越有可能认为是其他人在采取行动。挑出某人、进行眼神交流、指向并说“YOU-CALL 911”要有效得多。他们会的。
If someone appears to be experiencing a heart attack in a crowded store and you yell, “Someone call 911,” it’s likely that no one will call—the more people around, the more likely everyone will assume that someone else is taking action. It’s far more effective to single someone out, make eye contact, point, and say, “YOU—CALL 911.” They will.
旁观者冷漠是可以采取行动的人数与选择采取行动的人数之间的反比关系。可用的人越多，人群中的每个成员就越没有责任对这种情况采取任何行动。
Bystander Apathy is an inverse relationship between the number of people who could take action and the number of people who choose to act. The more people available, the less responsibility each member of the crowd feels to do anything about the situation.
1964 年 Kitty Genovese 谋杀案和 2009 年 Petru Barladeanu 枪击案是旁观者冷漠的著名例子。在这两种情况下，受害者都在许多旁观者在场的情况下遭到袭击，而所有旁观者都不愿提供帮助。关于有多少人目睹了 Genovese 谋杀案存在一些争议，但毫无疑问，Barladeanu 案是通过视频拍摄的。当 Barladeanu 在地铁站的地板上因枪伤失血过多而死时，数十名能看到发生了什么事的人从现场走过，没有提供任何帮助。
The 1964 murder of Kitty Genovese and the 2009 shooting of Petru Barladeanu are dramatic, well-known examples of Bystander Apathy. In both cases, the victims were attacked in the presence of many bystanders, all of whom were hesitant to offer assistance. There’s some controversy over how many people witnessed the Genovese murder, but there’s no doubt about the Barladeanu case—it was captured on video. As Barladeanu bled to death from a gunshot wound on the floor of a metro station, scores of people who could see what was going on walked past the scene and did nothing to help.
旁观者冷漠解释了为什么分配给委员会的任何事情都没有完成。如果你曾与一群彼此没有权力的人一起工作，你就会明白我在说什么。除非有人挺身而出并承担个人责任让事情发生并让个人对进步负责，否则委员会可能会审议多年而不会完成任何事情。委员会的每个成员都假定其他人正在从事这项工作。
Bystander Apathy explains why anything assigned to a committee never gets done. If you’ve ever worked with a group of people who have no Power over one another, you know what I’m talking about. Unless someone steps up and takes individual responsibility for making things happen and holding individuals accountable for progress, a committee can deliberate for years without getting anything done. Each member of the committee assumes someone else is working on it.
在项目管理中消除旁观者冷漠的最佳方法是确保所有任务都有单一、明确的所有者和截止日期。除非您团队中的每个人都知道他们负责什么以及必须在何时完成，否则他们不太可能去做。
The best way to eliminate Bystander Apathy in project management is to ensure that all tasks have single, clear owners and deadlines. Unless every individual on your team knows what they’re responsible for and when it must be done, it’s very unlikely that they’ll do it.
委派职责时，始终将任务分配给具有明确截止日期的单一负责人。只有这样，人们才会觉得有责任把事情做好。
When delegating responsibilities, always assign tasks to a single owner with a clear deadline. Only then will people feel responsible for getting things done.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/bystander-apathy/
计划谬误
Planning Fallacy
霍夫施塔特定律：它总是比你预期的要花更长的时间，即使你考虑到了霍夫施塔特定律。
Hofstadter’s Law: it always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law.
——道格拉斯·侯世达，认知科学家和普利策奖获得者
—DOUGLAS HOFSTADTER, COGNITIVE SCIENTIST AND PULITZER PRIZE–WINNING AUTHOR
通常，人们在计划方面是可怕的。这听起来很不舒服，但即使是最聪明、最熟练的 CEO 或项目经理制定的任何计划都是不准确的——即使他们以前做过类似的工作。
As a rule, people are horrendous at planning. As uncomfortable as this sounds, any plan created by even the most intelligent and skilled CEO or project manager will be inaccurate—even if they’ve done similar work before.
正如 Jason Fried 和 David Heinemeier Hansson 在他们的书Rework中讽刺的那样，“计划就是猜测。” 我们之所以不善于计划，是因为我们并非无所不知——不可预见的事件或情况甚至会影响最详细的计划。当我们制定计划时，无论我们掩饰多少，我们都在猜测并使用解释来填补空白听起来很官方的语言和看起来很花哨的图表中令人不安的现实。
As Jason Fried and David Heinemeier Hansson quip in their book Rework, “Planning is guessing.” The reason we’re so bad at planning is because we’re not omniscient—unforeseen events or circumstances can impact even the most detailed plans. When we create plans, we’re guessing and using Interpretation to fill in the blanks, no matter how much we cloak that uncomfortable reality in official-sounding language and fancy-looking charts.
计划谬误意味着人们总是倾向于低估完成时间。项目越复杂，项目包含的相互依赖性就越多。相互依存关系越多，某些事情在某个时候不按计划进行的可能性就越大。
The Planning Fallacy means that people have a persistent tendency to underestimate completion times. The more complex the project, the more Interdependencies the project contains. The more Interdependencies there are, the more likely it is that something at some time will not go according to plan.
在计划时，我们倾向于想象一个一切顺利的场景。因此，我们往往会低估可能影响计划的事情的可能性，以及这些意外事件对项目的影响程度。很少见的是项目计划中包含这样一个项目：“项目经理患有单核细胞增多症：一个月。”
When planning, we tend to imagine a scenario in which everything goes well. As a result, we tend to underestimate the likelihood of things that could impact the plan, as well as how much those contingencies will affect the project. Rare is the project plan that contains a line item that says, “Project manager contracts mononucleosis: out for a month.”
大多数计划都大大低估了使计划准确所需的Slack量。如果你负责完成一个复杂的项目，包括几个月的 Slack 时间是合适的——意外的延误、假期、疾病和其他不可预见的事件可能会使事情花费比预期更长的时间。
Most plans drastically underestimate the amount of Slack necessary to make the plan accurate. If you’re responsible for completing a complex project, including a few months of Slack time is appropriate—unexpected delays, vacations, sicknesses, and other unforeseen events are likely to make things take longer than expected.
挑战在于，包括大量的 Slack 时间几乎从未被视为可以接受或合适的。如果你带着涉及三个月 Slack 时间的计划去找 CEO、客户或合作伙伴，最常见的回答是，“那是不可接受的——快点完成吧。” Slack 被淘汰，结果，几乎每个项目计划都极有可能是错误的。
The challenge is that including significant Slack time is almost never seen as acceptable or appropriate. If you go to a CEO, customer, or partner with a plan that involves three months of Slack time, the most common response is, “That’s not acceptable—get it done faster.” The Slack is eliminated, and as a result, almost every project plan is very likely to be wrong.
计划的不准确性并不会使计划变得毫无价值。计划不是因为它们可以帮助您更准确地进行预测，而是因为它们是有用的，因为创建计划的行为可以帮助您比开始时更彻底地了解需求、依赖关系和风险。用 Dwight D. Eisenhower 的不朽名言：“没有一场战役是按计划赢得的，但没有一场战役是没有胜利的。” . . 计划是无用的，但计划是必不可少的。” 计划的价值在于心理模拟：制定计划本身所需的思维过程。
The inaccuracy of plans doesn’t make planning worthless. Plans aren’t useful because they help you predict with better accuracy—they’re useful because the act of creating the plan helps you understand requirements, dependencies, and risks more thoroughly than when you started. In the immortal words of Dwight D. Eisenhower: “No battle was ever won according to plan, but no battle was ever won without one . . . Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” The value of planning is in Mental Simulation: the thought process required to create the plan itself.
使用计划，但不要依赖它们——只要你保持快速和勤奋的工作，项目就会在可行的情况下尽快完成。
Use plans, but don’t depend on them—as long as you keep working with speed and diligence, the project will be done as soon as it’s feasible.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/planning-fallacy/
强制函数
Forcing Function
你制定的时间表看起来像是一个完整的虚构作品，直到你的客户因为你没有满足它而解雇你。
The schedule you develop will seem like a complete work of fiction up until the time your customer fires you for not meeting it.
—David AKIN，马里兰大学航空航天工程教授
—DAVID AKIN, PROFESSOR OF AEROSPACE ENGINEERING, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
通常，除非情况需要，否则人们讨厌做出权衡。选项很有价值，除非有充分的理由，否则保持灵活性和控制是有意义的。
As a rule, people hate making Trade-offs unless the situation requires it. Options are valuable, and it makes sense to preserve flexibility and control unless there’s a good reason.
强制函数是一个过程或约束，需要在特定时间范围内采取行动、决策或权衡。截止日期、项目里程碑、试用期以及季度或年度报告是强制功能的常见示例：目的是鼓励或强制取得在没有外部限制的情况下不会发生的进展。
A Forcing Function is a process or Constraint that requires an action, Decision or Trade-off within a certain timeframe. Deadlines, project milestones, trial periods, and quarterly or annual reports are common examples of Forcing Functions: the purpose is to encourage or mandate progress that would otherwise not happen in the absence of an external limitation.
强制功能会产生紧迫感，但它们有局限性：即使您为项目投入更多资源，您也无法通过设置人为的结束日期来加快需要一定时间的创建、发现或生产过程。《人月神话》一书的作者小弗雷德里克·P·布鲁克斯 (Frederick P. Brooks Jr.)用一个令人难忘的比喻来解释这种固有的局限性：“一个女人可以在九个月内生一个孩子。” . . 但是九个女人一个月都怀不上孩子。” 在这种情况下增加紧迫感不会产生更好的结果，只会增加不必要的压力。
Forcing Functions create urgency, but they have limits: you can’t speed up creation, discovery, or production processes that take a certain amount of time by setting an artificial end date, even if you devote more resources to the project. Frederick P. Brooks Jr., author of The Mythical Man-Month, used a memorable metaphor to explain this inherent limitation: “One woman can make a baby in nine months . . . but nine women can’t make a baby in one month.” Increasing urgency in situations like this doesn’t produce better results and only serves to increase unnecessary stress.
Forcing Functions 最适用于限制研究时间和在不确定条件下做出决策。如果您不太确定如何继续，很容易以收集额外信息的名义推迟困难的选择。通过为项目的信息收集阶段添加一个人为限制，可以更轻松地推进和交付结果，尤其是当您需要在截止日期前交付时。
Forcing Functions are best used to place time limits on research and to make Decisions under conditions of Uncertainty. If you’re not quite sure how to proceed, it’s all too easy to put off difficult choices in the name of collecting additional information. By adding an artificial limit to the information-collection phase of the project, it’s much easier to move forward and deliver results, particularly if you need to deliver on a deadline.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/forcing-function/
转介
Referrals
在这个世界上取得成功的方法是让人们相信帮助你对他们有利。
The way to get on in the world is to make people believe it’s to their advantage to help you.
—JEAN DE LA BRUYÈRE，十七世纪的哲学家和讽刺作家
—JEAN DE LA BRUYÈRE, SEVENTEENTH-CENTURY PHILOSOPHER AND SATIRIST
当您的汽车抛锚时，您更愿意将它交给谁——是朋友的朋友的机械师，还是您在电话簿中随机找到的一家？
When your car breaks down, whom would you rather take it to—a mechanic who’s a friend of a friend, or a random operation you found in the phone directory?
如果可以选择，人们总是更愿意与他们认识和喜欢的人互动。推荐使人们更容易决定与他们不认识的人一起工作。
Given the choice, people always prefer to interact with people they know and like. Referrals make it far easier for people to Decide to work with someone they don’t know.
推荐是有效的，因为它们传递了被人知道和喜欢的品质。您更有可能去朋友推荐的机械师那里的原因是您了解并喜欢您的朋友，而您的朋友也了解并喜欢该机械师。即使电话簿中的竞争技工是高素质的，也没有被人知道和喜欢那么重要。推荐将了解/喜欢的效果转移给接收者——而不是一个有风险的、未知的数量，它们是一个安全、合理的选择。
Referrals are effective because they transfer the qualities of being known and liked. The reason you’re more likely to go to a mechanic your friend recommends is that you know and like your friend, and your friend knows and likes that mechanic. Even if the competing mechanic in the phone book is highly qualified, that doesn’t matter as much as being known and liked. The Referral transfers the knowing/liking effect to the recipient—instead of being a risky, unknown quantity, they’re a safe, reasonable choice.
冷呼叫效果不佳，因为来电者是未知的。请记住，我们的思想倾向于将未知的人和情况视为潜在威胁，这会激活我们的天然防御能力。如果某人不认识或不喜欢你，你将很难说服他们做你想做的事。
Cold calling doesn’t work very well because the caller is unknown. Remember, our minds tend to treat unknown people and situations as potential threats, which activates our natural defenses. If someone doesn’t already know or like you, you’re going to have a tough time convincing them to do what you want.
即使是最晦涩的共性也能显着升温冷漠的联系。如果有人提到他们和你来自同一个地区，或者他们上过同一所大学，或者认识同一个人，你会开始更喜欢他们——即使这种联系可能非常脆弱。
Even the most obscure commonalities can significantly warm up a cold connection. If someone mentions they’re from the same area as you, or that they went to the same college, or know the same person, you’ll start to like them more—even though the connection may be very tenuous.
去年，凯尔西在曼哈顿销售婚纱，超过 70% 的销售额来自推荐。当您考虑花 10,000 美元或更多钱购买一件名牌服装时，您希望与您认识和喜欢的人一起工作——而 Kelsey 以前的客户非常喜欢与她一起工作。在他们进入沙龙之前，凯尔西的大多数潜在客户已经认识并喜欢她——结果她完成了更多的销售。
The last year Kelsey sold wedding gowns in Manhattan, over 70 percent of her sales came from Referrals. When you’re considering spending $10,000 or more on a designer dress, you want to work with someone you know and like—and Kelsey’s previous customers really liked working with her. Before they entered the salon, most of Kelsey’s prospective customers already knew and liked her—and she closed many more sales as a result.
了解你、喜欢你、信任你的人越多，你的生活就越好。推荐是扩大人际关系网络的最佳方式。
The more people who know, like, and trust you, the better off you are. Referrals are the best way to expand your network of personal connections.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/referrals/
氏族
Clanning
尖叫“死吧，恶毒的人渣！”是一种更鼓舞人心的战斗口号。而不是“去死吧，那些本可以和我一样但在不同环境中长大的人！”
It is a more inspiring battle cry to scream, “Die, vicious scum!” instead of “Die, people who could have been just like me but grew up in a different environment!”
—ELIEZER YUDKOWSKY，人工智能研究员
—ELIEZER YUDKOWSKY, ARTIFICIAL-INTELLIGENCE RESEARCHER
1954 年，22 名 12 岁男孩被选中参加在俄克拉荷马州 Robbers Cave 州立公园举办的特殊夏令营。这就是夏令营的特别之处：该夏令营是一个心理学实验，在 Drs. 的指导下运作。Muzafer 和 Carolyn Wood Sherif。
In 1954, twenty-two twelve-year-old boys were selected to attend a special summer camp in Robbers Cave State Park in Oklahoma. Here’s what made the summer camp special: the camp was a psychology experiment, operated under the direction of Drs. Muzafer and Carolyn Wood Sherif.
每个男孩都被选为与小组中的其他人尽可能相似——心理学家确保所有男孩都有相似的智商、家庭和童年经历。实验开始前，22 人被分成两组，分别站在公园的两侧。按照设计，两个小组都不知道对方的存在。
Each of the boys was selected to be as similar to the rest of the group as possible—the psychologists ensured that all of the boys had similar IQs, families, and childhood experiences. Before the experiment started, the group of twenty-two was split into two groups and placed on opposite sides of the park. By design, neither group knew the other existed.
原本的计划是先让每个小组联合一段时间，然后让他们知道另一个小组的存在，看看会发生什么。营地辅导员是心理学家和研究生，他们将近距离观察事件的进展。
The original plan was to let each group coalesce for a while, then make them aware that the other group existed, to see what would happen. The camp counselors were psychologists and graduate students, who would be watching the events unfold up close and personal.
事情是这样的：这些团体意外地比计划提前发现了对方，敌对行动立即开始。男孩们一发现“他们的营地”中还有另一群人，便聚集在一起进行准备和防御。
Here’s what happened: the groups accidentally discovered each other earlier than planned, and hostilities started immediately. As soon as the boys discovered there was another group in “their camp,” they rallied together in preparation and defense.
人类倾向于形成不同的群体，这个过程称为Clanning。一组男孩开始称自己为“老鹰队”，而另一组则自称为“响尾蛇队”。形成独特的群体身份以帮助成员识别“内部人”和“外部人”。老鹰队创造了一个形象他们自己是英勇的好人，而响尾蛇则扮演了格格不入和反叛者的角色。
Humans tend to form distinct groups, a process called Clanning. One group of boys began calling themselves “the Eagles,” while the other group self-identified as “the Rattlers.” Distinct group identities formed to help members identify “insiders” and “outsiders.” The Eagles created an image of themselves as the heroic good guys, while the Rattlers took on the persona of misfits and rebels.
以惊人的速度，像贬低和偷窃其他团体的旗帜这样的小挑衅变成了混乱：营地突袭和食堂拳打脚踢。像体育这样的竞争性活动是一场灾难。为了营员们的安全，研究人员试图找到解决冲突的方法。
With surprising speed, minor provocations like put-downs and stealing the other group’s flag turned into chaos: campsite raids and dining-hall fist fights. Competitive activities like sports were a disaster. For the safety of the campers, the researchers tried to find a way to resolve the conflict.
心理学家提出了需要两个小组共同努力的挑战和目标：解决缺水问题、决定看电影以及将抛锚的卡车推回营地。当露营者开始感觉自己是更大群体的一部分时，冲突就会平息。
The psychologists introduced challenges and goals that required both groups to work together: solving a water shortage, deciding on a movie to watch, and pushing a broken-down truck back to camp. When the campers started feeling like part of a larger group, the conflicts subsided.
宗族化是一种自然的人类倾向——我们总是受到周围人的影响。将自己视为一个群体的一部分并将自己与其他群体区分开来是一种本能，可以解释每天新闻中出现的许多正在进行的战争和冲突。
Clanning is a natural human tendency—we are always influenced by the people around us. Identifying ourselves as part of a group and distinguishing ourselves from other groups is an instinct that explains many of the ongoing wars and conflicts featured in the news every day.
想想体育迷。球员、教练，甚至球场和队服的变化如此频繁，很难理解球迷们在欢呼什么——纽约洋基队的死忠球迷的生活将一成不变，无论球队输赢。虽然这可能是真的，但球迷却没有这种感觉——当洋基队获胜时，球迷们也觉得自己是赢家。
Think of sports fans. The players, coaches, and even stadiums and uniforms change so often, it’s difficult to understand what the fans are cheering for—the life of a die-hard New York Yankees fan will go on unchanged regardless of whether their team wins or loses. While that may be true, it doesn’t feel that way to the fan—when the Yanks win, the fans feel like winners too.
出于同样的原因，体育比赛也会发生。我在俄亥俄州北部长大，那里俄亥俄州立大学与密歇根大学的竞争非常活跃。在我来自的地方，在一年中的某些时候，密歇根州在俄亥俄州球迷的眼中是邪恶的。如果你从远处看这种情况，那就太傻了——大学生们争着抢一个椭圆形的棕色小球，而成千上万的人都在尖叫自己嘶哑。然而，眼下，对这两个群体来说，敌意就是一切。
Sports rivalries happen for the same reason. I grew up in northern Ohio, where the Ohio State–University of Michigan rivalry is alive and well. Where I come from, during certain parts of the year, Michigan is evil in the eyes of Ohio State fans. If you look at the situation from a distance, it’s silly—college kids scrambling for a little, oblong, brown ball while hundreds of thousands of people scream themselves hoarse. In the moment, however, for those two groups the enmity is everything.
围绕重要问题、立场或事件形成小组。了解团队动态，否则您很可能会被卷入其中。
Groups form around important issues, positions, or events. Understand the group dynamic or you’re likely to be caught up in it.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/clanning/
收敛与发散
Convergence and Divergence
个人总是不得不努力避免被部落压倒。如果你去尝试，你会经常感到孤独，有时还会感到害怕。但是，为拥有自己的特权付出任何代价都不会太高。
The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. If you try it, you will be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. But no price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself.
—弗里德里希·尼采，哲学家和权力意志的作者，并如是说查拉图斯特拉
—FRIEDRICH NIETZSCHE, PHILOSOPHER AND AUTHOR OF THE WILL TO POWER AND THUS SPOKE ZARATHUSTRA
随着时间的推移，你变得越来越像那些与你共度时光的人，而越来越不像其他群体中的人。
Over time, you become more and more like those whom you spend time with and less like people in other groups.
趋同是群体成员随着时间的推移变得更加相似的趋势。在商业中，这有时被称为公司“文化”，因为在那里工作的人往往具有相似的特征、行为和理念。
Convergence is the tendency of group members to become more alike over time. In business, this is sometimes called a company “culture,” in the sense that people who work there tend to have similar characteristics, behaviors, and philosophies.
趋同也意味着群体有自我监督的倾向。团队的规范就像地心引力一样起作用——如果它们被违反，其他人就会对叛逆者施加影响，使他们回到正轨。正如谚语所说，“最高的草叶最先被砍掉”。
Convergence also means that groups have a tendency to police themselves. The Norms of the group work like gravity—if they are violated, others will exert an influence on the rebel to bring them back in line. As the proverb goes, “The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut.”
如果您曾经在一家具有工作狂文化的公司工作过，您就会知道融合的力量有多大。如果工人早上 6:00 上班并一直待到晚上 10:30 是正常的，那么很难保持较短的工作时间，因为违反规范是一种社会信号，表明你不属于这个行业团体。我的一位客户在一家大型医学研究机构工作，他经常与同事发生冲突，他们认为他没有“尽力而为”，因为他在下午 5:00 而不是晚上 7:30 下班，尽管他的工作做得很好并完成所有事情。在合理的时间回家并没有被视为“聪明地工作”，而是被视为一种叛国行为——可悲但很常见。
If you’ve ever worked for a company with a workaholic culture, you know how powerful Convergence can be. If it’s normal for workers to come in at 6:00 in the morning and stay until 10:30 at night, it can be difficult to keep shorter working hours, since violating the Norms is a social signal that you don’t belong in the group. One of my clients, who works for a major medical research institution, often has conflicts with coworkers who believe he’s not “pulling his weight” because he leaves work at 5:00 p.m. instead of 7:30 p.m., even though he does great work and gets everything done. Instead of being viewed as “working smart,” going home at a reasonable hour is seen as a form of treason—sad, but common.
分歧是随着时间的推移，群体变得不像其他群体的趋势。由于群体行为通常会演变为将一个群体的成员与另一个群体的成员区分开来，因此大多数群体的规范都会发生变化，以防止与另一个群体或模仿者混淆。
Divergence is the tendency for groups to become less like other groups over time. Since group behavior often evolves to distinguish members of one group from another, the Norms of most groups change to resist being confused with another group or imitator.
分歧解释了为什么纽约市社会名流阶层的时尚变化如此频繁。在某些社交圈子里，着装是表明您的财富或地位的一种方式。当最新的时装开始出现在 Target 中时所以人们可以模仿外观，时尚变化来弥补。这种恒定的分歧使群体隶属关系信号有效。
Divergence explains why fashions among the socialite class in New York City change so often. In certain social circles, dress is a way to signal your wealth or status. When the latest fashions start appearing in Target so people can imitate the look, fashions change to compensate. This constant Divergence keeps the group affiliation signal valid.
根据已故的《非凡生活的艺术》一书的作者吉姆·罗恩所说，“你是与你相处时间最多的五个人的平均值。” 您每天与之打交道的人的价值观和行为会不断向您施加压力，迫使您采用相同的价值观和行为。
According to the late Jim Rohn, author of The Art of Exceptional Living, “You are the average of the five people you spend the most time with.” The values and behaviors of the people you interact with on a daily basis exert constant pressures on you to adopt the same values and behaviors.
如果您选择花时间与您希望随着时间的推移变得更像的人，融合会很有用。如果您想变得不那么害羞而更加外向，那么在社交场合与社交人士共度时光会影响您的行为。你不会在一夜之间变成一只交际花，但你会开始采用与你共度时光的人的行为和规范。
Convergence can be useful if you choose to spend time with people you’d like to become more like over time. If you’d like to become less shy and more outgoing, spending time with social people in social situations can’t help but influence your behavior. You won’t become a social butterfly overnight, but you will start to adopt the behaviors and Norms of the people you’re spending time with.
脱离那些不为你服务的群体是痛苦的，但却是成长的必要条件。想要戒烟或戒酒的人通常会发现很难戒掉，因为他们的社交网络中有很大一部分人都参与了这些行为。下午 3:00 抽支烟或参加下午 6:00 的欢乐时光是非常重要的社交活动——如果您的朋友在等您，诱惑就更难抗拒了。要做出重大改变，通常有必要离开一个小组并找到另一个更支持你想去的地方的小组，这就是为什么加入像 Alcoholics Anonymous 这样的支持小组是改变特定行为的一种非常有效的方法。
Breaking away from groups that aren’t serving you is painful but necessary to grow. People who want to quit smoking or drinking often find it difficult to quit because a large portion of their social network engages in those behaviors. Taking a smoke break at 3:00 p.m. or attending a 6:00 p.m. happy hour is a very significant social event—if your friends are expecting you, the temptation is even harder to resist. To make significant changes, it’s often necessary to leave one group and find another that’s more supportive of where you want to go, which is why joining support groups like Alcoholics Anonymous is a very effective way to change specific behaviors.
一旦您意识到收敛和发散有多么强大，您就可以利用它们来发挥自己的优势。如果您的社交圈不支持您的目标，请改变您的社交圈。
Once you realize how powerful Convergence and Divergence are, you can use them to your advantage. If your social circle isn’t supporting your goals, change your social circle.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/convergence-divergence/
社会证明
Social Proof
如果 5000 万人说了一件愚蠢的话，那仍然是一件愚蠢的事情。
If fifty million people say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing.
——阿纳托尔·法兰西，诺贝尔文学奖获得者和诗人
—ANATOLE FRANCE, NOBEL PRIZE–WINNING NOVELIST AND POET
当站在你旁边的人突然开始走路时，你是否曾经站着等红绿灯变过马路？很有可能，你也开始行动了，除非你用意志力来抑制反应。
Have you ever stood waiting for a stoplight to change before crossing the street when the person standing next to you suddenly started walking? Chances are, you started moving too, unless you used willpower to Inhibit the response.
在大多数情况下，我们处境中其他人的行为非常强烈地表明以某种方式行事是可以的。当情况不明确时，我们通过观察他人的行为来学习。如果您不知道如何在罗马行事，那么做罗马人做的事是一个非常安全的选择。
In most situations, the actions of other individuals in our situation are a very strong indication that it’s okay to behave in a certain way. When a situation is ambiguous, we learn by watching the behavior of others. If you don’t know how to act in Rome, doing what the Romans do is a pretty safe bet.
社会证明可以有自己的生命。当一个人采取行动而其他人将其视为一种社交信号，然后以同样的方式行动，从而创建一个社交反馈循环时，时尚通常会形成。新时尚、病毒视频和股市泡沫都通过社会证明获得力量——如果有这么多人喜欢或做某事，很容易得出你应该效仿的结论。
Social Proof can take on a life of its own. Fads often form when one person takes an action and others perceive it as a social signal, then act the same way, creating a social Feedback Loop. New fashions, viral videos, and stock market bubbles all gain power via Social Proof—if so many other people like or do something, it’s easy to come to the conclusion that you should probably follow suit.
推荐书是一种有效的社会证明形式，通常用于业务中以完成更多销售。Amazon.com 和其他在线零售商以用户评论为特色是有原因的：关于对购买感到满意的人的故事发出了一个明确的信号，表明该商品可以安全购买，因此会有更多人购买。
Testimonials are an effective form of Social Proof often used in business to close more sales. There’s a reason why Amazon.com and other online retailers feature user reviews: stories about people who have been pleased with a purchase send a clear signal that an item is safe to buy, so more people purchase.
最好的推荐不一定包含最高级的词：“惊人”、“最好”、“改变生活”和“革命性”等词已被过度使用，以至于人们对它们抱有期望并低估了他们的期望。最有效的推荐往往遵循这种格式：“我对这个提议很感兴趣，但持怀疑态度。无论如何，我决定购买，我对结果非常满意。”
The best testimonials don’t necessarily contain superlatives: “amazing,” “best,” “life-changing,” and “revolutionary” have been so overused that people expect them and discount their expectations. The most effective testimonials tend to follow this format: “I was interested in this offer, but skeptical. I decided to purchase anyway and I’m very pleased with the result.”
这种形式比一大堆人滔滔不绝地谈论你的报价更有效的原因是它更符合你的潜在客户的感受：感兴趣但不确定。通过表明该决定是一个好的决定，推荐书告诉您的潜在客户购买是安全的。
The reason this format is more effective than a litany of people gushing about your offer is that it more closely matches how your prospects are feeling: interested but uncertain. By signaling that the decision was a good one, testimonials tell your prospects that it’s safe to buy.
在您的报价中添加一点社会证明，您的销售额就会飙升。
Add a bit of Social Proof to your offers, and your sales will soar.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/social-proof/
权威
Authority
尊重所有人，但不要卑躬屈膝。
Show respect to all men, but grovel to none.
—TECUMSEH，18 世纪肖尼部落的领袖
—TECUMSEH, EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY LEADER OF THE SHAWNEE TRIBE
1970 年代，广受欢迎的大众咖啡品牌 Sanka 聘请了演员罗伯特·杨 (Robert Young) 来宣传不含咖啡因的咖啡对健康的好处。Young 更广为人知的名字是 Marcus Welby 博士，他是热门电视节目Marcus Welby, MD的主角。
In the 1970s, Sanka—a popular mass-market coffee brand—hired Robert Young, an actor, to promote the health benefits of decaffeinated coffee. Young was better known to the public as Dr. Marcus Welby, the lead character of the popular television show Marcus Welby, M.D.
尽管 Young 不是咖啡因医疗效果方面的专家，但人们仍将他视为权威——并购买了 Sanka。这种方法非常有效，以至于 Sanka 使用了“Dr. Welby”几十年来一直在推广他们的产品。
Even though Young wasn’t an expert on the medical effects of caffeine, people still perceived him as an authority—and purchased Sanka. The approach worked so well that Sanka used “Dr. Welby” to promote their product for decades.
人们天生倾向于服从权威人物。这种倾向始于童年——如果我们大部分时间不服从父母，我们就活不了多久。随着我们的成长，我们学会了尊重和服从其他权威人物：教师、警察、政府官员和神职人员。因此，当权威人物要求我们做某事时，我们很可能会照办——即使这个要求不合适或没有意义。
People have an inherent tendency to comply with Authority figures. This tendency begins in childhood—we wouldn’t survive very long if we didn’t obey our parents most of the time. As we grow up, we’re socialized to respect and obey other Authority figures: teachers, police officers, government officials, and clergy. As a result, when an Authority figure asks us to do something, we’re very likely to comply—even if the request isn’t appropriate or doesn’t make sense.
人们倾向于遵守权威数据，即使他们在正常情况下拒绝采取同样的行动。在一个著名的令人不安的社会心理学实验中，斯坦利·米尔格拉姆证明，大多数人会以惊人的程度服从权威人物——即使这个要求在道德上看起来是错误的。
People tend to comply with Authority figures even if they’d refuse to take the same action under normal circumstances. In a famously disturbing social psychology experiment, Stanley Milgram proved that most individuals will comply with Authority figures to a surprising degree—even if the request appears to be morally wrong.
在 1961 年开始的一系列实验中，米尔格拉姆将测试对象放在一个房间里，房间里有一个穿着白色实验室外套的“科学家”和另一个人，他们都是演员。受试者被告知这项研究是关于惩罚对学习的影响，其中一名参与者被“随机”选为“学习者”——演员。“学习者”被带到隔壁房间，绑在椅子上，并连上电极。
In a series of experiments that began in 1961, Milgram placed test subjects in a room with a “scientist” in a white lab coat and another individual, both of whom were actors. The subject was told the study was about the effect of punishment on learning, and one of the participants was “randomly” selected to be the “learner”—the actor. The “learner” was taken to an adjacent room, strapped into a chair, and attached to electrodes.
测试对象作为“老师”的工作是阅读学习者的问题，如果他们回答不正确，则“震惊”学习者。电击不是真实的，但演员会尖叫、哭泣并请求从研究中获释。每隔几分钟，“科学家”就会指示老师提高电击电压。这项研究的目的是看看测试对象在拒绝继续之前会服从科学家多长时间。
The test subject’s job as the “teacher” was to read the learner questions, then “shock” the learner if they responded incorrectly. The shocks weren’t real, but the actor would scream, cry, and beg to be released from the study. Every few minutes, the “scientist” would instruct the teacher to raise the voltage of the shocks. The intent of the study was to see how long the test subject would obey the scientist before refusing to continue.
结果令人不安：80% 的参与者继续超过学习者请求停止的点，65% 的参与者一直持续到 450 伏特的最高水平，这被标记为致命。在整个研究过程中，受试者对他们被要求做的事情表示不舒服。当受试者被命令继续时，他们会反抗——这是说服抵抗的一个例子——但是当权威人物告诉他们时继续研究对“更大的利益”——科学知识的进步——很重要，他们照办了。3个
The results were disturbing: 80 percent of participants continued past the point where the learner begged to stop, and 65 percent continued all the way to the maximum level of 450 volts, which was marked as deadly. Throughout the study, the subjects expressed discomfort with what they were being asked to do. When subjects were ordered to continue, they resisted—an example of Persuasion Resistance—but when the Authority figure told them continuing the study was important for the “greater good”—the advancement of scientific knowledge—they complied.3
在权威人物面前，人们会做一些他们认为应该受到谴责的事情，或者一开始不会考虑的事情——这是许多涉及名人和权势人物的丑闻的根源。
In the presence of an Authority figure, people will do things they’d otherwise view as reprehensible, or wouldn’t consider in the first place—the source of many a scandal involving famous and powerful people.
如果您处于权威地位，您的权威将改变其他人与您互动的方式。当您表达意见时，您的下属更有可能将您的立场解释为事实或命令。因此，人们会开始根据他们认为你想听的内容来过滤他们提供给你的信息——这可能不是你需要听的。这种过滤行为是权威人物通常最终“生活在泡沫中”的原因——权威和确认偏见的结合使他们免受与他们观点相矛盾的信息的侵害。因此，权威人士很难弥补过度自尊倾向。
If you’re in a position of Authority, your Authority will change the way others interact with you. When you express an opinion, your subordinates will be far more likely to Interpret your position as a truth or as a command. As a result, people will begin to filter the information they give you based on what they think you want to hear—which may not be what you need to hear. This filtering behavior is how Authority figures often end up “living in a bubble”—the combination of Authority and Confirmation Bias shelters them from information that contradicts their opinions. As a result, it’s difficult for Authority figures to compensate for the Excessive Self-Regard Tendency.
在某个领域建立强大的声誉会带来权威的好处。并非权威的所有部分都是阴险的——如果人们尊重你的知识和经验，他们就更有可能按照你的建议去做。因此，发展清晰的专业知识和强大的声誉可能是有益的——它会增加您自己的影响力。努力让自己成为你所提供产品的权威，人们将更有可能接受你的产品。
Developing a strong Reputation in a certain area confers the benefits of Authority. Not all parts of Authority are insidious—if people respect your knowledge and experience, they’re more likely to do what you suggest. As a result, developing clear expertise and a strong Reputation can be beneficial—it increases your own influence. Work to establish yourself as an Authority on what you’re offering, and people will be more likely to accept your offer.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/authority/
承诺和一致性
Commitment and Consistency
愚蠢的一致性是小脑袋的妖精。
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.
——拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生，十九世纪散文家和诗人
—RALPH WALDO EMERSON, NINETEENTH-CENTURY ESSAYIST AND POET
几个月前，凯尔西接到母校打来的电话，要求捐款。这是一个转折点：他们没有直接要求捐款。相反，他们问她是否“愿意在未来向大学捐款”。她没有多想，就同意了——很快就忘记了这个电话。
A few months ago, Kelsey received a phone call from our alma mater, asking for a donation. Here’s the twist: they didn’t ask for the donation outright. Instead, they asked if she’d be “willing to donate money to the university in the future.” Thinking nothing of it, she agreed—and promptly forgot about the call.
就在我们从纽约搬到科罗拉多州之前，邮件中出现了一张来自大学的 150 美元的官方“发票”。它说：“这是你的 150 美元承诺——你可以用随附的信封寄出你的支票。”
Just before we moved from New York to Colorado, an official-looking “invoice” for $150 from the university appeared in the mail. It said, “Here is your $150 commitment—you can send your check via the enclosed envelope.”
钱很紧，因为我们要付搬家费、买车和买家具——但凯尔西还是寄了支票。毕竟，她已经答应了，不是吗？
Money was tight, since we were paying for movers, buying cars, and purchasing furniture—but Kelsey sent the check anyway. After all, she had promised, right?
没有人愿意被视为“违背誓言”。承诺在整个历史中一直被用作将群体绑定在一起的一种方式。违背诺言或承诺通常会对社会地位和声誉产生负面影响，因此大多数人会尽其所能以表明与先前立场和承诺一致的方式行事。
No one wants to be considered an “oath breaker.” Commitments have been used throughout history as a way of binding groups together. Breaking a promise or Commitment can often have a negative impact on Social Status and Reputation, so most people will do whatever they can to act in ways that demonstrate Consistency with previous positions and promises.
即使是很小的承诺也会使个人将来更有可能采取与这些承诺一致的行动。我最喜欢的关于承诺的故事之一来自 Michael Masterson，他是Ready, Fire, Aim的作者。4在去印度旅行时，马斯特森拜访了一位地毯商人。他带着健康的怀疑态度走进商店，并没有购买任何东西的打算——他只是对这种体验感兴趣。
Even small Commitments make it more likely that individuals will take actions Consistent with those Commitments in the future. One of my favorite stories about Commitment comes from Michael Masterson, the author of Ready, Fire, Aim.4 On a trip to India, Masterson visited a rug merchant. He entered the shop with a healthy level of skepticism and no intention of buying anything—he was just interested in the experience.
这位地毯商人是一位出色的推销员，他依赖于两个主要策略。为了打破马斯特森的怀疑，他用过去销售的故事（叙事）来鼓励马斯特森在销售开始前喜欢并信任他。然后他使用了承诺：每当马斯特森只要看一眼地毯，店主就会让他的员工把它从架子上取下来仔细检查。地毯很重，看得出来是销售人员在替他卖力。通过做出一个小小的承诺——表达对特定地毯的兴趣——马斯特森引发了一系列行动。
The rug merchant was an excellent salesman and relied on two primary strategies. To break down Masterson’s skepticism, he used stories (Narratives) of past sales to encourage Masterson to like and Trust him before the selling began. Then he used Commitment: Whenever Masterson so much as looked at a rug, the proprietor would have his staff take it down off the racks to examine it closely. The rugs were heavy, and it was clear that the sales staff was working hard on his behalf. By making a small Commitment—expressing interest in a particular rug—Masterson provoked a flurry of action.
几分钟过去了，马斯特森很难想象不买地毯就离开——这与他表达的兴趣和业主员工为他所做的工作不一致。他至少能做的就是往复运动——他怎么能拒绝他们呢？
As the minutes passed, it became difficult for Masterson to imagine leaving without purchasing a rug—it would be inconsistent with the interest he’d expressed and the work the proprietor’s staff were doing for him. The least he could do was engage in Reciprocation—how could he tell them no?
最后，他以 8,200 美元的价格购买了一块地毯，并以一位满意的顾客离开了。
In the end, he purchased a rug for $8,200 and walked away a happy customer.
获得小的承诺使得人们以后更有可能选择以一致的方式行事。销售人员经常被教导要尽其所能鼓励客户尽快开始说“是”。通过“踏入大门”，他们增加了潜在客户采取进一步行动的可能性。
Obtaining small Commitments makes it more likely people will choose to act in a Consistent way later. Salespeople are often taught to do what they can to encourage their customers to start saying yes as soon as possible. By getting a “foot in the door,” they increase the probability that their prospect will take further action.
这就是为什么如此多的活动家使用诸如“你关心儿童安全吗？”这样的开放性问题。或者“你关心环境吗？” 在电话推销或收集请愿书签名时。大多数人确实关心这些事情，所以回复是自动和迅速的。然而，一旦你说你关心某事，拒绝他们的请求是不礼貌的——这与你之前的陈述不一致。
That’s why so many activists use opening questions like “Do you care about child safety?” or “Do you care about the environment?” when telemarketing or collecting signatures on a petition. Most people do care about these things, so the reply is automatic and swift. Once you’ve said you care about something, however, it would be rude of you to refuse their request—it’s inconsistent with your previous statement.
获得一个小的承诺，你就会使其他人更有可能遵守你的要求。
Obtain a small Commitment and you’ll make it far more likely that others will comply with your request.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/commitment-consistency/
激励引起的偏差
Incentive-Caused Bias
欣赏神谕。
Admire Oracles.
—公元前 4 世纪，德尔斐神谕的第 123 句格言
—123RD MAXIM OF THE ORACLE OF DELPHI, FOURTH CENTURY BCE
如果您与房地产经纪人或抵押贷款经纪人合作，他们的主要兴趣是说服您买房。大多数中介不会告诉您租房对您最有利，5即使这是真的。
If you’re working with a real estate agent or mortgage broker, they’re primarily interested in convincing you to buy a house. Most agents won’t tell you it’s in your best interest to rent,5 even if it’s true.
激励引起的偏见解释了为什么对某事有既得利益的人会倾向于引导你朝着他们感兴趣的方向发展。在谈论缓冲区时，我们谈到了激励引起的偏差的概念。如果您与收取佣金的代理商合作，那么告诉您购买某物不是一个好主意不一定符合他们的最佳利益。俗话说，“如果你需要理发，不要问理发师”。
Incentive-Caused Bias explains why people with a vested interest in something will tend to guide you in the direction of their interest. We touched on the idea of Incentive-Caused Bias when talking about Buffers. If you’re working with an agent who’s paid on commission, it’s not necessarily in their best interest to tell you that purchasing something is not a good idea. As the saying goes, “Don’t ask the barber if you need a haircut.”
激励措施会根据人们获得奖励的方式影响人们的行为方式。因此，人们所接触到的激励结构会对行为产生重大影响。假设人们控制的事情保持不变，改变激励也可能改变行为。
Incentives influence the way people act based on how they’re rewarded. As a result, the structure of the incentives people are exposed to has a significant impact on behavior. Assuming that the things people are controlling for stay the same, changing the incentives is also likely to change behavior.
在The Knack中，Norm Brodsky 和 Bo Burlingham 描述了他们如何补偿销售人员。大多数公司以佣金为基础对销售人员进行补偿：完成更多的销售可以使销售人员赚到更多的钱。在这种激励结构下，他们的销售人员非常专注于完成销售——即使这些销售没有盈利或不符合公司的长期利益。通过以工资为基础补偿销售人员并根据长期绩效给予丰厚的奖金，Brodsky 和 Burlingham 鼓励销售人员专注于实现有利可图的销售，而不是不惜一切代价进行销售。
In The Knack, Norm Brodsky and Bo Burlingham describe how they compensate their salespeople. Most companies compensate salespeople on a commission basis: closing more sales nets the salesperson more money. Under this incentive structure, their salespeople are hyperfocused on closing sales—even if those sales aren’t profitable or in the long-term interest of the company. By compensating their salespeople on a salary basis and giving generous bonuses based on long-term performance, Brodsky and Burlingham encouraged salespeople to focus on making profitable sales versus sales at any cost.
有时激励会产生意想不到的二阶效应。股票期权这些公司是根据这样的理论创立的，即对公司股价感兴趣的高管会采取行动使股票随着时间的推移升值，这符合股东的最佳利益。的确如此，但仅在一定程度上：这些高管的实际利益在于在他们打算出售之前让股价上涨。一旦期权被出售，他们就不再那么在意，导致政策为了短期利益而牺牲长期稳定。
Sometimes incentives create unintended Second-Order Effects. Stock options were created under the theory that executives who had an interest in the company’s stock price would act in ways to make the stock go up in value over time, which was in the best interest of the shareholders. That’s true, but only to a point: the actual interest of those executives is in making the stock price go up right before they intend to sell. Once the options are sold, they no longer care so much, leading to policies that sacrifice long-term stability for short-term gains.
激励措施很棘手，因为它们与我们的感知控制系统相互作用。例如，如果员工因做好事而获得奖金或加薪，可能会产生奇怪的结果——他们停止做获得奖励的事情。
Incentives are tricky because they interact with our Perceptual Control systems. For example, giving an employee a bonus or raise for doing something good can create a curious result—they stop doing what got them the reward.
除非你意识到总有奖励，否则这毫无意义——他们做他们做的事是因为他们想做，所以奖励是内在的。付钱给他们使行动成为他们工作的一部分，这减少了他们为了自己的利益而完成它的内在动力。在冲突的情况下，感知控制每次都会赢得激励。
That makes no sense until you realize there was always a reward—they did what they did because they wanted to, so the reward was internal. Paying them makes the action part of their job, which reduces their inner drive to complete it for its own sake. In the case of Conflict, Perceptual Controls win over incentives every time.
如果使用得当，激励措施可能会有用，但要小心。如果与你共事的人的动机与你的兴趣不一致，你肯定会遇到问题。
Incentives can be useful if used appropriately, but be careful. If the incentives of the people you work with aren’t aligned with your interests, you’re bound to have problems.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/incentive-caused-bias/
模态偏差
Modal Bias
我们在认同我们的人中找到安慰，在不认同我们的人中成长。
We find comfort among those who agree with us, and growth among those who don’t.
—FRANK A. CLARK，部长兼报纸专栏作家
—FRANK A. CLARK, MINISTER AND NEWSPAPER COLUMNIST
几年前，我和一位同事出差时惊讶地发现我背的是单肩包而不是拉杆箱。这是一次通宵旅行，所以我不需要太多东西——换洗衣服、我的电脑和一本书。我有我需要的一切，包也不重，所以我的解决方案工作得很好。
A few years ago, I was traveling on business with a colleague who was amazed that I was carrying a shoulder bag instead of a rolling suitcase. It was an overnight trip, so I didn’t need much—a change of clothes, my computer, and a book. I had everything I needed, and the bag wasn’t heavy, so my solution worked just fine.
我的同事认为我的解决方案很荒谬，并在接下来的十分钟里告诉我：“携带一个滚动的手提箱要好得多！这样会更舒服，重量也会更轻。你应该总是携带一个滚动的手提箱。. ”
My colleague thought my solution was absurd and spent the next ten minutes telling me so: “It’s much better to carry a rolling suitcase! It would be more comfortable, and there’d be less weight. You should always carry a rolling suitcase . . .”
模态偏差是我们的想法或方法是最好的自动假设。我们大多数人都喜欢假设我们拥有一切——我们知道我们在说什么，我们知道我们在做什么，我们做事的方式是最佳的。很多时候，我们都错了。完成某件事总是有不止一种方法，好的想法可以来自任何地方。
Modal Bias is the automatic assumption that our idea or approach is best. Most of us like to assume we have everything together—that we know what we’re talking about, we know what we’re doing, and our way of doing things is optimal. Very often, we are mistaken. There is always more than one way to get something done, and good ideas can come from anywhere.
在没有相反证据的情况下，将根据“最高薪酬人士的意见”做出决定。“HiPPO”是 Avinash Kaushik 在网络分析：一天一小时中创造的一个术语，用于解释为什么用数据支持业务建议和决策很重要。在没有数据的情况下，你将被迫按照老板的方式做事：模态偏差确保老板总是认为他们的方式是最好的，除非你能证明不是这样。在意见的较量中，HiPPO 总是赢家。
In the absence of evidence to the contrary, decisions are made according to the “Highest Paid Person’s Opinion.” “HiPPO” is a term coined by Avinash Kaushik in Web Analytics: An Hour a Day to explain why it’s important to support business proposals and decisions with data. In the absence of data, you’ll be forced to do things the boss’s way: Modal Bias ensures that the boss always thinks that their way is best, unless you can prove otherwise. In a battle of opinions, the HiPPO always wins.
在你自己的决策中避免模态偏差的最好方法是使用抑制来暂时中止判断。理解认知偏见的部分价值在于，你不能对它们免疫，知道它们的存在并不会使它们的影响力减弱。模态偏差是自动的——我们必须用意志力来抑制它。
The best way to avoid Modal Bias in your own decision making is to use Inhibition to temporarily suspend judgment. Part of the value of understanding cognitive biases is the knowledge that you’re not immune to them, and knowing they exist doesn’t make them any less influential. Modal Bias is automatic—we have to use willpower to inhibit it.
如果你是领导者或经理，暂停你的判断足够长的时间来考虑与你共事的人的观点和建议是值得的。否则，您很可能会错过重要信息。提醒自己保持开放的心态，您将增强做出明智决定的能力。
If you’re a leader or manager, it pays to suspend your judgment long enough to consider the perspectives and suggestions of the people you work with. Otherwise, you’re likely to miss important information. Remind yourself to keep an open mind and you’ll enhance your ability to make wise Decisions.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/modal-bias/
归因错误
Attribution Error
很少有人能不把拇指放在天平上就可以权衡别人的过错。
Rare is the person who can weigh the faults of others without putting his thumb on the scales.
—BYRON J. LANGENFELD，第一次世界大战飞行员
—BYRON J. LANGENFELD, WORLD WAR I AVIATOR
假设您雇用了一个承包商来盖房子，并给他一个明确的完工期限。截止日期来了又去，项目还没有完成。又过了三个月，房子才完工。
Let’s assume you hire a contractor to build a house and give him a clear deadline for completion. The deadline comes and goes, and the project isn’t done. Three more months go by before the house is complete.
除非您觉得仁慈，否则您可能会认为承包商不专业、懒惰或缺乏经验。你告诉所有有兴趣盖房子的朋友不要雇用那个承包商——他承诺过多但交付不足。
Unless you’re feeling charitable, you’re likely to think the contractor is unprofessional, lazy, or inexperienced. You tell all of your friends who are interested in building a house not to hire that contractor—he overpromises and underdelivers.
现在从承包商的角度想象一下这种情况。最初的计划是从一家值得信赖的特定供应商处购买木材，但他们的一辆卡车发生故障，延迟了装运。这种情况需要在短时间内找到另一家供应商，这很困难，因为材料供应稀缺。承包商竭尽全力完成工作——如果没有承包商的干预，该项目将被推迟六个月而不是三个月。
Now imagine the situation from the contractor’s point of view. The original plan was to buy lumber from a particular supplier that is trustworthy, but one of their trucks broke down, delaying the shipment. The situation required finding another supplier on short notice, which was difficult, since supplies of the materials were scarce. The contractor moved heaven and earth to get the job done—without the contractor’s intervention, the project would have been delayed six months instead of three.
Attribution Error就是当别人搞砸了，我们责怪他们的性格；当我们搞砸时，我们将情况归因于环境。假设承包商的行为是由于性格缺陷造成的，那么你的判断就犯了错误——鉴于当时的情况，承包商的行为超出了职责范围。但是，因为您不了解情况，所以您责怪他的性格。
Attribution Error means that when others screw up, we blame their character; when we screw up, we attribute the situation to circumstances. By assuming the contractor’s actions were due to a character flaw, you made an error in judgment—the contractor went above and beyond the call of duty, given the circumstances. Because you weren’t aware of the circumstances, however, you blamed his character.
避免归因错误可以更轻松地与同事保持良好关系。如果您与某个人一起工作，但他的表现未能达到预期或多次未能达到预期目标，那么您就有一个需要解决的合法问题。否则，除非特定行为成为一种模式，否则让人们从怀疑中获益是有益的。当您了解一个人的行为背后的原因时，通常会让您以不同的眼光看待他们的行为。
Avoiding Attribution Error makes it easier to stay on good terms with the people you work with. If you’re working with someone who fails to perform to expectations or deliver what they’re supposed to on multiple occasions, then you have a legitimate issue that needs to be resolved. Otherwise, it’s beneficial to give people the benefit of the doubt unless a particular behavior becomes a pattern. When you understand the reason behind a person’s actions, it usually makes you see their behavior in a different light.
当事情没有按预期进行时，请尝试尽可能多地了解您所注意到的行为的周围环境。通常情况下，你会发现这是一个环境问题，而不是根本的性格缺陷。
When something isn’t going as expected, try to find out as much as you can about the circumstances surrounding the behavior you’re noticing. More often than not, you’ll find that it’s a matter of circumstance, not a fundamental character flaw.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/attribution-error/
读心谬误
The Mind-Reading Fallacy
沟通的最大问题是它已经发生的错觉。
The single biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place.
——萧伯纳，剧作家和政治活动家
—GEORGE BERNARD SHAW, PLAYWRIGHT AND POLITICAL ACTIVIST
许多人认为，高效的员工、承包商和业务合作伙伴应该能够预测他们的想法、愿望和偏好。这种误解导致了大量不必要的误解、困惑、沮丧和冲突。
Many people assume that effective employees, contractors, and business partners should be able to anticipate their thoughts, desires, and preferences. That misconception is responsible for an enormous amount of unnecessary misunderstanding, confusion, frustration, and strife.
读心谬误是控制点和指挥官意图的必然结果：人们无法直接访问你的思想，因此你必须传达你的目标、优先事项和偏好。
The Mind-Reading Fallacy is a corollary of Locus of Control and Commander’s Intent: people don’t have direct access to your mind, so you must communicate your objectives, priorities, and preferences.
你承担的责任越大，与越多的人一起工作，以清晰一致的方式表达你的想法和愿望就越重要。领导职位需要大量的沟通，尤其是在环境随时间变化的情况下。如果确保您团队或公司中的每个人都了解您当前的战略和优先事项很重要，那么持续沟通是绝对必要的。
The more responsibility you have and the more people you work with, the more important it is to express your thoughts and desires in a clear and consistent way. Positions of leadership require an enormous amount of communication, particularly as circumstances change over time. If it’s important to make sure everyone on your team or in your company knows your current strategy and priorities, constant communication is an absolute necessity.
这个原则也是日常生活的一个很好的经验法则：它可以改善你与亲人、朋友和熟人的关系质量。通过完全负责表达你的想法和感受，而不是期望别人完全理解你的需要和想要的东西，你可以让别人更容易以富有成效和有益的方式与你互动。
This principle is also a good rule of thumb for daily life: it can improve the quality of your relationships with loved ones, friends, and acquaintances. By taking full responsibility for expressing your thoughts and feelings and not expecting others to have a perfect understanding of what you need and want, you make it easier for others to interact with you in a productive and beneficial way.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/mindreading-fallacy/
边界设定
Boundary Setting
有时感觉自雇最困难的部分是没有工作的纪律，而是不工作的纪律。
Sometimes it feels like the hardest part of self-employment isn’t having the discipline to work, it’s having the discipline to not work.
—GARRETT DIMON，SIFTER.COM 和 ADAPTABLE.ORG 的创始人
—GARRETT DIMON, FOUNDER OF SIFTER.COM AND ADAPTABLE.ORG
边界设定是定义和告知他人在给定环境中什么是可接受的行为，什么是不可接受的行为，然后在其他各方越界时采取行动的做法。
Boundary Setting is the practice of defining and informing others of what is and is not acceptable behavior in a given context, then taking action when other parties overstep in those areas.
为了存在边界，您必须能够定义它并且您必须愿意执行它。预期工作时间是一个常见的紧张点：公司经常要求员工在特定时间上班，并一直工作到特定时间。如果员工迟到或早退，那就是个问题。
In order for a boundary to exist, you have to be able to define it and you have to be willing to enforce it. Expected working hours are a common point of tension: companies often require their employees to be at work at a certain time and stay at work until a certain time. If an employee shows up late or leaves early, that’s a problem.
边界设置是双向的：许多雇主期望最低限度工作时间，但鼓励他们的员工无偿加班。如果您愿意在工作日的上午 9:00 至下午 5:00 工作，但您的工作单位希望您每周工作六或七天，从上午 7:00 至晚上 10:00，则存在根本冲突. 由你来强制执行边界，否则它不存在。
Boundary Setting goes both ways: many employers expect a minimum number of work hours but encourage their employees to work additional hours unpaid. If you’re willing to work from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on weekdays, but your place of employment expects you to work from 7:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. six or seven days a week, there’s a fundamental Conflict. It’s up to you to enforce the boundary, or it doesn’t exist.
如果你为自己工作，那么人为地为你的工作时间设定界限很重要，否则你会发现自己站在帕金森定律的错误一边，为了改善业务而在你的个人生活中做出严重的权衡。同样，如果你立即回复老板在凌晨 2:00 发给你的电子邮件，你就在发出一个明确的信号，表明你没有为你在办公室以外的时间和注意力设定界限，而且你随时可以工作。
If you work for yourself, it’s important to set artificial boundaries on your work time, or you’ll find yourself on the wrong side of Parkinson’s Law, making severe Trade-offs in your personal life for the sake of improving the business. Likewise, if you send an immediate reply to the email your boss sends you at 2:00 a.m., you’re sending a clear signal that you haven’t set boundaries with respect to your time and attention outside of the office, and that you’re available to work at all hours.
道德标准、行为准则和其他正式行为政策是组织或文化层面的边界设置示例。如果您预先定义什么是可接受的行为或活动，什么是不可接受的，则在必要时强制执行界限会容易得多。这使得处理困难情况变得更加容易，无论您是处理敏感的人际话题（如骚扰），还是关闭每秒访问您网站一千次的黑客。
Ethics standards, codes of conduct, and other formal behavior policies are examples of Boundary Setting at the organizational or cultural level. If you predefine what is and is not acceptable behavior or activity, it’s much easier to enforce boundaries when necessary. This makes it easier to handle difficult situations, whether you’re dealing with sensitive interpersonal topics like harassment or shutting down a hacker who’s accessing your website a thousand times a second.
边界设置对于定义不需要监督的可接受行为也很有用。在我工作的日子里，我记得最好的政策之一被称为“成人商业交易”。从本质上讲，您无需请求许可或请假来处理平凡的生活问题——去看医生或看牙医、投票、从学校接生病的孩子等等。公司默认你是一个负责任的成年人：否则你不会被雇用。只要你完成了你的工作，没有滥用政策，这些地方就没有必要进行严格的监管。没有必要猜测某件事是否“好”：该政策是一种正式的、有形的信任指标，并且具有消除大量不必要的管理工作的令人愉快的副作用。
Boundary Setting is also useful in defining acceptable behavior that doesn’t require oversight. One of the best policies I remember from my corporate days was called the “adult business deal.” In essence, you never had to ask for permission or time off to take care of mundane life concerns—going to doctor or dentist appointments, voting, picking up a sick child from school, et cetera. The company assumed by default that you were a responsible adult: you wouldn’t have been hired otherwise. As long as you completed your work and didn’t abuse the policy, there was no need for strict oversight in these areas. There was no need to guess if something was “okay” or not: the policy was a formal, tangible indicator of Trust and had the pleasant side effect of eliminating a huge amount of unnecessary managerial work.
边界设置很重要。如果你没有定义你愿意接受什么和你不愿意接受什么，那么你就是在为不必要的冲突和混乱的解决方案做好准备。清楚你的期望，当不可接受的情况发生时，准备好捍卫你的价值观和优先事项。
Boundary Setting is important. If you don’t define what you’re willing to accept and what you’re not, you’re setting yourself up for unnecessary Conflict and a messy resolution. Be clear about what you expect, and when unacceptable situations occur, be ready to stand up for your values and priorities.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/boundary-setting/
慈善原则
The Principle of Charity
倾听之所以困难，是因为不听不像不听：只是感觉对方错了。
The reason listening is hard is that not-listening doesn’t feel like not-listening: it just feels like the other person is wrong.
—ANDREW BADR，程序员
—ANDREW BADR, PROGRAMMER
每当您与其他人一起工作时，您经常会发现自己意见不一。这不是什么大问题，前提是你学会以一种对所有相关人员都有效的方式表达不同意见。
Whenever you work with other people, you will often find yourself in disagreement. That’s not a huge problem, provided you learn to disagree in a way that’s productive for everyone involved.
慈善原则是一种克服以令人不快的方式表达不同意见的倾向的方法：与其挑起争端，假设人们的言行有其理由是很有用的。因此，最好在假设恶意、无知、无能或其他不令人满意的品质之前更详细地了解他们的立场。
The Principle of Charity is a way to overcome the tendency to disagree in a disagreeable way: instead of picking a fight, it’s useful to assume people have reasons for what they say and do. As a result, it’s a good idea to understand their position in more detail before assuming bad faith, ignorance, incompetence, or other unsatisfactory qualities.
这并不是说你必须同意对方的观点：你可以花时间了解他们的立场，然后得出结论，他们的立场是错误的、不准确的，或者他们提出的解决方案不适合你. 如果是这样的话，理解并能够表达对方的立场可以更容易地从互动中学习，并以一种保持他们的安全感并且不会产生威胁锁定的方式进行交流。
That’s not to say that you have to agree with the other person’s point of view: you can take the time to understand their position, then come to conclusion that it’s ill-informed, inaccurate, or that their proposed solution doesn’t work for you. If that’s the case, understanding and being able to express the other person’s position makes it much easier to learn from the interaction and communicate in a way that preserves their sense of Safety and doesn’t produce Threat Lockdown.
著名哲学家和认知科学家丹尼尔·C·丹尼特 (Daniel C. Dennett) 在他的《直觉泵和其他思维工具》一书中发表了对这一想法的雄辩解释，该书基于数学心理学家和系统理论家阿纳托尔·拉波波特 (Anatol Rapoport) 的著作。在批评某人的作品之前：
Daniel C. Dennett, the renowned philosopher and cognitive scientist, published an eloquent interpretation of this idea in his book, Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking, which is based on the work of Anatol Rapoport, a mathematical psychologist and systems theorist. Before you criticize someone’s work:
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你应该尝试如此清晰、生动和公平地重新表达你的目标的立场，以至于你的目标会说，“谢谢，我希望我能想到那样说。”
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You should attempt to re-express your target’s position so clearly, vividly, and fairly that your target says, ‘Thanks, I wish I’d thought of putting it that way.’
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你应该列出所有的共识点，尤其是当它们不是普遍或广泛认同的问题时。
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You should list any points of agreement, especially if they are not matters of general or widespread agreement.
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你应该提到你从你的目标那里学到的任何东西。
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You should mention anything you have learned from your target.
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只有这样你才可以说反驳或批评的话。
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Only then are you permitted to say so much as a word of rebuttal or criticism.
这种理解水平需要时间和精力，而这两者都是有限的资源。在理想情况下，我们能够深入了解其他人所说的一切背后的细节和动机，但在大多数情况下这并不实用。即使您不具备扩展对话或深入研究的能力，慈善原则也是一个有用的经验法则，可以让您更轻松地进行富有成效的对话。
This level of understanding takes time and energy, both of which are limited resources. In an ideal world, we’d be able to dig into the details and motivations behind everything others say, but that isn’t practical in most cases. Even if you don’t have the capacity for extended conversation or deep research, the Principle of Charity is a useful rule of thumb that makes it easier to have productive conversations.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/principle-of-charity/
期权导向
Option Orientation
推动世界前进的重要工作不会等待完美的人来完成。
The important work of moving the world forward does not wait to be done by perfect men.
——乔治·艾略特，十九世纪小说家
—GEORGE ELIOT, NINETEENTH-CENTURY NOVELIST
当出现问题时，您如何处理危机很重要。错误和问题一直在发生，因此提前计划您的应对措施对于最大程度地减少意外的影响大有帮助。
When something goes wrong, how you handle the crisis matters. Mistakes and issues happen all the time, so planning your response in advance goes a long way toward minimizing the impact of the unexpected.
当出现问题时，专注于问题是你能做的最没有效率的事情。当您意识到问题时，防止它超出了您的控制点。问题已经发生——唯一的问题是你打算如何回应它。
Fixating on the issue is the least productive thing you can do when something goes wrong. By the time you’re aware of an issue, preventing it is beyond your Locus of Control. The issue has already occurred—the only question is how you plan to respond to it.
想象一下，您向一家制造微波炉的公司的首席执行官汇报，您刚刚收到一份报告，称您的一些微波炉发生爆炸，将几座房屋夷为平地。这是个大问题。如果你的方法是“老板，我们有问题。我们做什么？告诉我们该怎么做！”
Imagine that you report to the CEO of a company that makes microwaves, and you’ve just received a report that a few of your microwaves have exploded, burning several homes to the ground. That’s a major issue. How do you think the CEO will respond if your approach is, “Boss, we have an issue. What do we do? Tell us what to do!”
除非你的 CEO 是一个非常有耐心的人，否则回应可能是，“我知道我们有一个 $&#@&% 的问题——帮我找出我们的选择！” 专注于绞尽脑汁，你很快就会失业。
Unless your CEO is a very patient soul, the response will probably be, “I know we have a $&#@&% issue—help me figure out our options!” Fixate on the hand-wringing and you’ll soon be out of a job.
与其纠缠于问题，不如培养一种选择导向。反复思考这个问题并不能解决任何问题；你打算怎么办？通过将精力集中在评估潜在的反应上，您更有可能找到使事情变得更好的方法。
Instead of dwelling on the problem, cultivate an Option Orientation. Ruminating on the issue doesn’t solve anything; what are you going to do about it? By focusing your energy on evaluating potential responses, you’re far more likely to find a way to make things better.
这是您假设的 CEO 可能会发现更有用的替代方法：
Here’s an alternate approach your hypothetical CEO is probably going to find more useful:
我们已经收到多份关于我们的微波炉引起火灾的报告。以下是我们的选择——我们可以让我们的工程师在发布声明并冒进一步问题的风险之前进行全面诊断，或者我们可以立即召回。根据我们目前掌握的信息，我们的微波炉似乎出现了故障，对我们客户的安全构成了重大风险。根据我们的选择，我建议立即召回，我们估计这将花费 400 万美元。
We’ve received several reports of fires caused by our microwaves. Here are our options—we can have our engineers run a full diagnostic before we issue a statement and risk further issues, or we can issue an immediate recall. Based on the information we have available right now, it appears our microwaves are at fault and present a major risk to the safety of our customers. Based on our options, I recommend an immediate recall, which we estimate will cost $4 million.
着眼于潜在的选择更具建设性——您将展示几个行动方案以及与每个方案相关的成本和收益，然后根据可用信息推荐一个解决方案。然后，CEO（或客户）可以查看您的建议和您提出的选项，提出后续问题，然后做出最佳决策。经常这样做并且做得好，你就会在危机中树立头脑清醒的声誉。
Focusing on the potential options is far more constructive—you’re presenting several courses of action and the costs and benefits associated with each, then recommending a solution based on the available information. The CEO (or client) can then review your recommendation and the options you present, ask follow-up questions, then make the best Decision possible. Do this often and well, and you’ll develop a Reputation for clear-headedness in the midst of crisis.
专注于选择，而不是问题，你将能够处理生活抛给你的任何情况。
Focus on options, not issues, and you’ll be able to handle any situation life throws at you.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/option-orientation/
管理
Management
管理层正在做正确的事情；领导层正在做正确的事情。
Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things.
——彼得·德鲁克，现代管理理论之父
—PETER DRUCKER, FATHER OF MODERN MANAGEMENT THEORY
商学院在“科学管理”和对受过教育、训练有素的管理人员的需求方面取得了很大成就。实际上，您无法在课堂上学会成为称职的管理者——除了一些简单的原则外，这是一项最好通过经验学习的技能。
Much has been made in business schools of “scientific management” and the need for educated, trained managers. In reality, you can’t learn to be a competent manager in a classroom—beyond a few simple principles, it’s a skill best learned through experience.
管理简单，但不简单。从本质上讲，管理是协调一群人以实现特定目标的行为，同时应对始终存在的变化和不确定性。就像在暴风雨中掌舵一样，你能做的就是来回转动轮子，这很简单，但要做好就需要经验和技巧。
Management is simple, but not simplistic. In essence, Management is the act of coordinating a group of people to achieve a specific Goal while accounting for ever-present Change and Uncertainty. It’s like taking the helm of a ship during a storm: all you can do is move the wheel back and forth, which is simple, but it takes experience and skill to do it well.
根据我们目前所学的知识，以下是有效的现实世界管理的六个简单原则：
Based on what we’ve learned thus far, here are six simple principles of effective real-world Management:
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招募能够快速、高质量地完成必须完成的任务的最少人员。比较优势意味着某些人在完成某些任务时会比其他人做得更好，因此投入时间和资源来招募最适合该工作的团队是值得的。但是，不要让该团队太大——通信开销会使超出三到八人核心的每个额外团队成员拖累绩效。小型精英团队是最好的。
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Recruit the smallest group of people who can accomplish what must be done fast and with high quality. Comparative Advantage means that some people will be better than others at accomplishing certain tasks, so it pays to invest time and resources in recruiting the best team for the job. Don’t make that team too large, however—Communication Overhead makes each additional team member beyond a core of three to eight people a drag on performance. Small, elite teams are best.
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传达所需的最终结果、谁负责什么以及当前状态。团队中的每个人都必须知道指挥官的项目意图、项目重要的原因以及他们负责完成的项目的具体部分——否则，你就有旁观者冷漠的风险。
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Communicate the desired End Result, who is responsible for what, and the current status. Everyone on the team must know the Commander’s Intent of the project, the Reason Why it’s important, and the specific parts of the project they’re responsible for completing—otherwise, you’re risking Bystander Apathy.
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尊重他人。应用黄金三连胜——欣赏、礼貌和尊重——是让你团队中的每个人都感到重要的最好方法，也是确保他们尊重你作为领导者和管理者的最好方法。您的团队在支持性条件下合作得越多，Clanning发生的次数就越多，团队的凝聚力也就越强。
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Treat people with respect. Applying the Golden Trifecta—appreciation, courtesy, and respect—is the best way to make the individuals on your team feel Important and is also the best way to ensure that they respect you as a leader and manager. The more your team works together under supportive conditions, the more Clanning will occur and the more cohesive the team will become.
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创造一个让每个人都尽可能高效的环境，然后让人们去做他们的工作。最好的工作环境充分利用指导结构——尽可能提供最好的设备和工具，并确保环境强化团队正在做的工作。为避免因认知转换惩罚而耗尽精力，请尽可能保护您的团队免受干扰，包括不必要的官僚主义和会议。
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Create an Environment where everyone can be as productive as possible, then let people do their work. The best working Environment takes full advantage of Guiding Structure—provide the best equipment and tools possible and ensure that the Environment reinforces the work the team is doing. To avoid having energy sapped by the Cognitive Switching Penalty, shield your team from as many distractions as possible, which includes nonessential bureaucracy and meetings.
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不要对确定性和预测抱有不切实际的期望。制定一个积极的计划来完成项目，但要事先意识到不确定性和计划谬误意味着您的初始计划在几个重要方面将是不完整或不准确的。不断更新你的计划，使用你一路上学到的东西，并不断地重新应用帕金森定律来考虑到工作所需的必要权衡，找到可行的最短可行路径。
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Refrain from having unrealistic expectations regarding certainty and prediction. Create an aggressive plan to complete the project, but be aware in advance that Uncertainty and the Planning Fallacy mean your initial plan will be incomplete or inaccurate in a few important respects. Update your plan as you go along, using what you learn along the way, and continually reapply Parkinson’s Law to find the shortest feasible path to completion that works, given the necessary Trade-offs required by the work.
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衡量一下您正在做的事情是否有效——如果无效，请尝试另一种方法。有效管理的主要谬误之一是它使学习变得不必要。这种心态假设你的初始计划应该是 100% 完美的，并且严格遵守。恰恰相反：有效的管理意味着学习计划，这需要不断调整。通过一小组关键绩效指标衡量您的绩效——如果您所做的似乎没有效果，请尝试另一种方法。
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Measure to see if what you’re doing is working—if not, try another approach. One of the primary fallacies of effective Management is that it makes learning unnecessary. This mind-set assumes your initial plan should be 100 percent perfect and followed to the letter. The exact opposite is true: effective Management means planning for learning, which requires constant adjustments along the way. Measure your performance across a small set of Key Performance Indicators—if what you’re doing doesn’t appear to be working, experiment with another approach.
很好地遵循这些原则，您的团队将会富有成效。跟着他们走不好，你很幸运能完成任何有用的事情。
Follow these principles well, and your team will be productive. Follow them poorly and you’ll be fortunate to get anything useful done at all.
这种管理实践风格并不是大多数人听到这个词时想到的命令和控制管理风格。在电视和大多数管理文学中，经理是地位高的管理人员，他们大部分时间都在告诉其他人该做什么并做出重要决策。实际上，这些行为是管理不善的迹象。
This style of management practice is not the command-and-control style of Management most people think of when they hear the term. On TV and in most management literature, managers are high-status executives who spend most of their time telling other people what to do and making important decisions. In practice, those behaviors are telltale signs of poor Management.
最好的管理者行事不像大人物：他们更像是非常熟练的助手，其主要目的是让具有经济价值技能的人专注于改进每项业务的五个部分：也就是说，做的事情是为公司的业绩做出贡献。重要的决定是由对相关领域最直接的知识和经验的人做出的。
The best managers don’t act like big-shot executives: they’re more like very skilled assistants, whose primary purpose is to keep the people with Economically Valuable Skills focused on improving the Five Parts of Every Business: that is, doing things that contribute to the company’s results. Important decisions are made by the individuals who have the most direct knowledge and experience of the area in question.
在 2012 年的一篇文章中，软件企业家 Joel Spolsky 解释了为什么管理者应该停止发号施令并开始让人们完成他们的工作：
In a 2012 essay, software entrepreneur Joel Spolsky explains why managers should stop calling the shots and start letting people do their jobs:
“管理团队”不是“决策”团队。这是一个支持功能。. . 你不会建立一个顶层有一个巨大的大脑，而下面有一堆服从命令的较小大脑的[企业]。你试图让每个人在他们的领域都有一个巨大的大脑，并且你提供最低限度的管理支持来让他们继续嗡嗡作响。6个
The “management team” isn’t the “decision making” team. It’s a support function . . . You don’t build a [business] with one big gigantic brain on the top, and a bunch of lesser brains obeying orders down below. You try to get everyone to have a gigantic brain in their area, and you provide a minimum amount of administrative support to keep them humming along.6
管理是一项独特的技能，需要纪律、耐心、清晰的沟通，以及让每个人都在没有不必要的干扰的情况下一起工作的承诺。通过招募一支优秀的团队并尽可能多地消除摩擦，您将获得想要的结果。
Management is a unique skill that requires discipline, patience, clear communication, and a commitment to keeping everyone working together without unnecessary distractions. By recruiting a good team and eliminating as much Friction as possible, you’ll achieve the results you’re seeking.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/management/
基于绩效的招聘
Performance-Based Hiring
总而言之，说的比做的多得多。
When all is said and done, a lot more is said than done.
—LOU HOLTZ，职业美式足球教练和运动解说员
—LOU HOLTZ, PROFESSIONAL AMERICAN FOOTBALL COACH AND SPORTSCASTER
如果需要组建团队怎么办？如果您负责随着公司的发展招聘新员工怎么办？您如何吸引和留住您能找到的最优秀的员工？
What if you need to build a team? What if you’re responsible for recruiting new employees as your company grows? How do you attract and retain the best employees you can find?
招聘是一项棘手的工作，没有万无一失的方法来寻找、吸引和留住明星员工和承包商。招聘中的错误几乎总是代价高昂的，而糟糕的招聘可能会花费您宝贵的时间和金钱以及您的团队有限的精力和耐心。
Hiring is a tricky business, and there’s no foolproof method to find, attract, and retain star employees and contractors. Mistakes in hiring are almost always expensive, and a bad hire can cost you precious time and money and your team’s limited energy and patience.
优秀的员工和承包商不一定是那些简历最漂亮或在电话筛选或面试中表现最好的人：最好的员工是那些能把事情做好并与团队其他成员合作得很好的人。理想情况下，您正在寻找的人会贡献有价值的工作，对这个机会感到兴奋，并且您会喜欢每天与他共事。
Good employees and contractors are not necessarily the people who have the fanciest résumé or perform the best in a phone screen or interview: the best hires are people who get things done and work well with other members of your team. Ideally, you’re looking for an individual who will contribute valuable work, who’s excited about the opportunity, and who you’ll enjoy working with every day.
这是招聘的黄金法则：未来行为的最佳预测指标是过去的表现。如果你想雇用在未来几个月和几年内表现出色的人，你需要寻找过去表现出色的人。这意味着深入挖掘申请人的成就，并在承诺长期合作之前为每位认真的候选人提供与您合作的短期机会。
Here’s the golden rule of hiring: the best predictor of future behavior is past performance. If you want to hire people who will perform well for you in the months and years to come, you need to look for people who have performed well in the past. That means digging deep into what the applicant has accomplished, as well as giving each serious candidate a short-term opportunity to work with you before committing to a longer-term engagement.
基于绩效的招聘的第一步是公开您正在寻求帮助。对于大多数公司来说，宣布职位需要写一份职位描述，以公共格式发布或由招聘人员用于搜索私人网络。无论哪种方式，都不要像写广告那样写工作描述：你要描述如果申请人为你工作，他们每天会做什么，尽可能多地分享你可以分享的不加修饰的细节。您正在寻找对工作感兴趣的人，除非您描述工作涉及的内容，否则求职者很难确定他们是否适合。
The first step in Performance-Based Hiring is to publicize that you’re looking for help. For most companies, announcing the job involves writing a job description, which is either published in a public format or used by a recruiter to search private networks. Either way, don’t write the job description like an advertisement: you want to describe what the applicant will do on a day-to-day basis if they work for you, with as much unembellished detail as you can share. You’re looking for people who are attracted to the work, and it’s difficult for applicants to determine whether or not they’ll be a good fit unless you describe what the job involves.
接下来，确定一个基本的“酸性测试”来筛选申请人。在就业市场疲软的情况下，新的职位发布往往会被求职者淹没，其中许多人的求职能力很差。您将需要一种方法来确定最有前途的候选人，而不需要为每个候选人花费太多时间。按学位或 GPA 进行筛选很常见但效果不佳，因为这些不会告诉您有关候选人当前技能水平的任何信息。在申请中，提出一些基本的问题，需要一定的领域专业知识才能回答。最有前途的候选人将很容易识别。
Next, identify a basic “acid test” to screen applicants. In weak employment markets, new job postings tend to be overwhelmed with applicants, many of whom are poor candidates. You’ll need a way to identify the most promising candidates without taking too much time per candidate. Screening by degree or GPA is common but ineffective, since these don’t tell you anything about the candidate’s current level of skill. In the application, ask a few basic questions that require a certain amount of specialized knowledge in the field to answer. The most promising candidates will be easy to identify.
一旦你确定了一些有前途的候选人，请每个人向你展示他们迄今为止最好的两三个项目的例子。这些项目不必与相关工作相关，但它们应该是申请人引以为豪的工作，并且他们认为可以突出他们的技能。这个想法是查看候选人迄今为止所取得成就的例子，这样可以更容易地衡量他们的经验和职业道德的相对水平。如果候选人声称他们在产品开发方面拥有“五年经验”，但无法向您展示他们创造的东西，那就是一个危险信号。
Once you’ve identified a few promising candidates, ask each one to show you examples of two or three of their best projects to date. These projects don’t have to be related to the job in question, but they should be work that the applicant is proud of and that they believe highlights their skills. The idea is to see examples of what the candidate has accomplished to date, which makes it easier to gauge their relative level of experience and work ethic. If a candidate claims that they have “five years of experience” in product development but can’t show you something they’ve created, that’s a red flag.
此时检查参考资料是对时间的一种很好的利用。连同项目示例，要求他们提供在此过程中与之合作的人员的姓名和联系信息。当您联系候选人的推荐人时，您的问题应该很简单：例如，他们会再次与候选人合作吗？如果他们犹豫或谈论这个问题，那就拒绝了。如果您打电话时找不到推荐人，请留言并让他们在候选人非凡时与您联系。如果是，您将收到回电。如果他们不是，你就不会。
Checking references at this point is a good use of time. Along with the project examples, request the names and contact information of people they worked with in the process. When you contact a candidate’s references, your questions should be simple: e.g., Would they work with the candidate again? If they hesitate or talk around the question, it’s a no. If you can’t reach a reference when you call, leave a message and ask them to contact you if the candidate is extraordinary. If they are, you’ll receive a return call. If they aren’t, you won’t.
最后，给有前途的候选人一个短期项目或场景，看看他们如何思考、工作和沟通。小型项目往往最适合熟练的技术员工，而场景最适合适用于负责产品创建、营销、销售、业务开发、财务和管理角色的候选人。任务的结果应该是某种可交付成果：报告、宣传、资产或流程。
Finally, give promising candidates a short-turnaround project or scenario to see how they think, work, and communicate firsthand. Small projects tend to work best for skilled technical employees, while scenarios work best for candidates who will be responsible for product creation, marketing, sales, business development, finance, and management roles. The outcome of the assignment should be a deliverable of some kind: a report, a pitch, an asset, or a process.
不要将候选人置于人工环境中：他们应该可以自由使用他们喜欢使用的任何工具或资源。如果他们有任何问题，他们应该可以免费与您联系。项目完成后，请候选人与您会面并展示他们的结果。此演示文稿取代采访。
Don’t put the candidate in an artificial environment: they should be free to use whatever tools or resources they’re comfortable using. They should be free to contact you if they have questions. On completion of the project, bring the candidate in to meet you and present their results. This presentation replaces the interview.
项目或场景的目的是评估候选人在现实环境中的实际工作。候选人首先关注什么？他们注意到了什么，错过了什么？他们如何解释他们的选择和建议？当您提出问题或不同意结论时，他们如何回应？
The purpose of the project or scenario is to evaluate the candidate’s actual work in a realistic environment. What does the candidate focus on first? What do they notice and what do they miss? How do they explain their choices and recommendations? How do they respond when you ask questions or disagree with a conclusion?
像这样的任务应该很短，最多需要几个小时的工作。尊重您的求职者：您的招聘流程不应成为获得免费咨询的借口。如果您更愿意使用更长的项目来评估候选人，您可以随时聘请他们作为兼职顾问，如果您对他们的工作感到满意，则可以让他们全职工作。
Assignments like these should be short, requiring no more than a few hours of work. Respect your applicants: your hiring process should not be a cover to obtain free consulting. If you’d prefer to use longer projects to evaluate a candidate, you can always hire them as a part-time consultant, then bring them on full-time if you’re pleased with their work.
这种一般的招聘流程是发现和评估有前途的员工和承包商的一种直接、有效的方式。需要注意的是，此过程不依赖于简历或传统面试，后者仅测试应聘者撰写简历和在面试中的表现。如果你寻找过去的表现并直接评估候选人的工作，你会做出更好的雇用。
This general hiring process is a straightforward, effective way to discover and evaluate promising employees and contractors. It’s important to note that this process doesn’t rely on résumés or traditional interviews, which only test for how well the candidate writes a résumé and performs in an interview. If you look for past performance and evaluate a candidate’s work firsthand, you’ll make much better hires.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/performance-based-hiring/
9
9
理解系统
UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMS
如果你赞扬你做的不好，但如果你谴责你不理解的东西，那就更糟了。
You do ill if you praise, but worse if you censure, what you do not understand.
——列奥纳多·达·芬奇，发明家、艺术家和博学多才
—LEONARDO DA VINCI, INVENTOR, ARTIST, AND POLYMATH
企业是复杂的系统，存在于更复杂的系统——市场、行业和社会中。复杂系统是相互关联的部分的自我延续排列，形成一个统一的整体。
Businesses are complex systems that exist within even more complex systems—markets, industries, and societies. A complex system is a self-perpetuating arrangement of interconnected parts that form a unified whole.
在本章中，您将了解所有系统的共同要素、环境因素如何影响系统的功能，以及不确定性和变化的无处不在的本质。
In this chapter, you’ll learn common elements of all systems, how Environmental factors influence the function of systems, and the ever-present nature of Uncertainty and Change.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/understanding-systems/
高尔定律
Gall’s Law
一个有效的复杂系统总是被发现是从一个有效的简单系统演变而来的。反命题似乎也是正确的：从头开始设计的复杂系统永远不会工作，也无法工作。你必须重新开始，从一个简单的系统开始。
A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. The inverse proposition also appears to be true: a complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be made to work. You have to start over, beginning with a simple system.
——约翰·高尔，系统理论家
—JOHN GALL, SYSTEMS THEORIST
这是给你的周末项目：从头开始制造汽车。不允许预制零件或计划。只是一块金属，一些简单的工具，你的知识，你的想象力。您认为您的项目会取得怎样的成果？
Here’s a weekend project for you: build a car from scratch. No premanufactured parts or plans allowed. Just a block of metal, a few simple tools, your knowledge, and your imagination. How do you think your project will turn out?
即使这个项目需要一年时间，它也有可能是一场彻底的灾难——如果你的汽车能正常工作（这是非常非常不可能的），它的效率和可靠性将远低于商业制造商生产的最差的汽车.
Even if the project takes a year, chances are it will be a complete disaster—if your car works at all (which is very, very unlikely), it’ll be far less efficient and reliable than even the worst car from a commercial manufacturer.
现在想象一下建造一台现代计算机，创造一种治疗癌症的方法，或者在不依赖其他人已经发现的任何东西的情况下从头开始克隆一个人。您将经历一系列代价高昂且士气低落的失败。如果你成功了，那将需要几十年的时间。
Now imagine building a modern computer, creating a cure for cancer, or cloning a human being from scratch without relying on anything someone else has already discovered. You’ll suffer through a series of expensive and demoralizing failures. If you succeed, it’ll take decades.
为什么从头开始构建可工作的复杂系统如此困难？最早的主要复杂系统理论家之一约翰·加尔 (John Gall) 提供了答案。
Why is it so hard to build working complex systems from scratch? John Gall, one of the first major complex-systems theorists, provided the answer.
这是Gall 定律：所有有效的复杂系统都是从更简单的有效系统演化而来的。复杂的系统充满了变量和相互依赖关系，必须恰到好处地安排它们才能发挥作用。从头开始设计的复杂系统永远不会在现实世界中运行，因为它们在设计时没有受到环境选择力的影响。
Here’s Gall’s Law: all complex systems that work evolved from simpler systems that worked. Complex systems are full of variables and Interdependencies that must be arranged just right in order to function. Complex systems designed from scratch will never work in the real world, since they haven’t been subject to environmental selection forces while being designed.
不确定性确保您永远无法提前预测所有这些相互依赖性和变量，因此从头开始构建的复杂系统将以各种意想不到的方式不断失败。
Uncertainty ensures that you will never be able to anticipate all of these Interdependencies and variables in advance, so a complex system built from scratch will continually fail in all sorts of unexpected ways.
高尔定律是环境选择测试与系统设计相结合的地方。如果你想构建一个有效的系统，最好的方法是首先构建一个满足环境当前选择测试的简单系统，然后随着时间的推移对其进行改进。随着时间的推移，您将构建一个有效的复杂系统。
Gall’s Law is where environmental Selection Tests meet systems design. If you want to build a system that works, the best approach is to build a simple system that meets the Environment’s current Selection Tests first, then improve it over time. Over time, you’ll build a complex system that works.
高尔定律是原型设计和迭代作为价值创造方法如此有效的原因。与从头开始构建复杂的系统不同，构建原型要容易得多——它是最简单的创建，可以帮助您验证您的系统是否满足关键的选择测试。
Gall’s Law is why Prototyping and Iteration work so well as a Value Creation methodology. Instead of building a complex system from scratch, building a Prototype is much easier—it’s the simplest possible creation that will help you verify that your system meets critical Selection Tests.
将该原型扩展为最低可行报价可以让您验证您的关键假设，从而产生可以在实际购买者中取得成功的最简单的系统。随着时间的推移，迭代周期和增量增强将产生即使环境发生变化也能正常工作的复杂系统。
Expanding that Prototype into a Minimum Viable Offer allows you to validate your Critical Assumptions, resulting in the simplest possible system that can succeed with actual purchasers. The Iteration Cycle and Incremental Augmentation, over time, will produce complex systems that work, even as the Environment changes.
如果你想建立一个从头开始运行的系统，违反高尔定律后果自负。
If you want to build a system that works from scratch, violate Gall’s Law at your peril.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/galls-law/
流动
Flow
一个过程不能通过停止来理解。理解必须随着过程的流动而移动，必须加入它并随之流动。
A process cannot be understood by stopping it. Understanding must move with the flow of the process, must join it and flow with it.
——弗兰克·赫伯特，科幻小说家
—FRANK HERBERT, SCIENCE-FICTION NOVELIST
无论系统做什么，它都会有流程——资源进出系统的移动。想象一条汽车装配线——钢铁、塑料、硅、橡胶和玻璃等原材料流入，成品汽车流出。
No matter what a system does, it will have Flows—movements of resources into and out of the system. Imagine an automotive assembly line—raw materials like steel, plastic, silicon, rubber, and glass flow in, and a finished car flows out.
流入是流入系统的资源：水流入水槽，资金流入银行账户，原材料流入装配线，新员工流入公司。
Inflows are resources moving into a system: water into a sink, money into a bank account, raw materials into an assembly line, new hires into a company.
流出是流出系统的资源：水从水槽流出，资金从银行账户流出，成品从装配线上流出，员工因退休、解雇或换工作而离开公司。
Outflows are resources flowing out of a system: water draining from a sink, money flowing out of a bank account, finished goods exiting an assembly line, employees leaving the company due to retirement, termination, or changing jobs.
遵循流程，您就可以了解系统的工作原理。
Follow the Flows and you’re on your way to understanding how the system works.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/flow/
库存
Stock
任何仓库中的货物都是无用的，直到有人将它们取出并用于它们应有的用途。这也适用于人储存在大脑中的东西。
Goods in any storehouse are useless until somebody takes them out and puts them to the use they were meant for. That applies to what man stores away in his brain, too.
—托马斯·沃森，IBM 前总裁
—THOMAS J. WATSON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF IBM
遵循系统的流程，您会发现资源往往汇集在一起的地方。
Follow a system’s Flows and you’ll find places where resources tend to pool together.
在这种情况下，股票不是企业所有权的证明——它是资源池或资源储罐。银行账户是股票的一个很好的例子：它是一个等待使用的资金池。库存、客户队列和等候名单也是库存的示例。
In this case, a Stock isn’t a certificate of business ownership—it’s a pool or holding tank of resources. A bank account is a good example of a Stock: it’s a pool of money waiting to be used. Inventories, queues of customers, and waiting lists are also examples of Stocks.
要增加库存，请增加流入和/或减少流出。如果您想增加银行账户的规模，请多存钱，少取钱。如果您正在制造汽车并且开始用完发动机，请放慢生产线速度或添加更多发动机到您的库存中。
To increase a Stock, increase inflows and/or decrease outflows. If you want to increase the size of your bank account, put more money in and take less money out. If you’re building cars and you start running out of engines, either slow down the line or add more engines to your inventory.
要减少库存，请减少流入和/或增加流出。如果库存过多，请停止生产单位或增加销量。如果等候名单太长，请增加吞吐量或减少排队人数。
To decrease a Stock, decrease inflows and/or increase outflows. If you have too much inventory, stop producing units or increase sales. If waiting lists are too long, increase Throughput or reduce the number of people entering the line.
找到系统的库存，您会发现等待使用的资源池。
Find the system’s Stocks and you’ll discover pools of resources waiting to be used.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/stock/
松弛
Slack
有盈余的人可以控制环境，但没有盈余的人受制于环境，往往没有机会做出判断。
A man with a surplus can control circumstances, but a man without a surplus is controlled by them, and often has no opportunity to exercise judgment.
—HARVEY S. FIRESTONE，FIRESTONE 轮胎和橡胶公司创始人
—HARVEY S. FIRESTONE, FOUNDER OF THE FIRESTONE TIRE AND RUBBER COMPANY
由于Stocks是资源池，因此了解您必须使用多少资源是值得的。Slack是 Stock 中存在的资源量。Stock 中的资源越多，Slack 就越多。
Since Stocks are pools of resources, it pays to understand how many resources you have to work with. Slack is the amount of resources present in a Stock. The more resources you have in a Stock, the more Slack you have.
对于以高效方式运行的系统，Stocks 的大小应该恰到好处——既不过大也不过小。想一想我们假设的汽车制造系统：它是许多较小系统的组合，每个系统都旨在创建零件库存。
For a system to operate in an efficient way, Stocks should be just the right size—not too big and not too small. Think of our hypothetical automotive manufacturing system: it’s a combination of many smaller systems, each of which is designed to create a Stock of parts.
如果当汽车到达装配线的那个部分时没有等待安装的发动机库存，那就是一个问题——汽车将不得不等到发动机准备好，这会阻止它后面的所有东西。为避免此问题，最好确保 Stock 足够大以处理保持系统运行所需的流出水平。流入量补充库存，因为它已经耗尽。
If there’s no Stock of engines waiting to be installed when a car reaches that part of the assembly line, that’s an issue—the car will have to wait until an engine is ready, which holds up everything in line behind it. To avoid this issue, it’s best to ensure that the Stock is big enough to handle the level of outflows required to keep the system running. Inflows replenish the Stock as it’s depleted.
大型股票的松弛度最高，但这种灵活性是有代价的。如果您有 500 台发动机等待安装，您将有大量资金占用库存，这会减少您的现金流。您还必须支付存储引擎的空间，以免它们丢失或损坏，这会增加您的成本并降低您的利润率。
Large Stocks have the most Slack, but that flexibility comes at a cost. If you have five hundred engines waiting around to be installed, you’ll have a lot of funds tied up in inventory, which reduces your cash flow. You’ll also have to pay for space to store the engines so they aren’t lost or damaged, which increases your costs and decreases your Profit Margin.
Small Stocks 效率更高，但 Slack 更少。如果您只有两个或三个引擎的库存，您不会有大量资源被库存占用，但如果装配线加速或出现问题，引擎用完的可能性会更高发动机制造系统。
Small Stocks are more efficient but have less Slack. If you only have a Stock of two or three engines, you won’t have a huge amount of resources tied up in inventory, but the probability of running out of engines is much higher if the assembly line speeds up or there’s a problem with the engine-manufacturing system.
Slack 很难管理：太多了，你就是在浪费时间和金钱。太少，您的系统将面临耗尽继续运行所需资源的风险。
Slack is tricky to manage: too much, and you’re wasting time and money. Too little, and your system faces the risk of running out of the resources necessary to continue operating.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/slack/
约束
Constraint
一旦你消除了头号问题，二号问题就会得到提升。
Once you eliminate your number one problem, number two gets a promotion.
—GERALD WEINBERG，计算机科学家和系统理论家
—GERALD WEINBERG, COMPUTER SCIENTIST AND SYSTEMS THEORIST
系统的性能总是受到关键输入可用性的限制。减轻Constraint，系统的性能就会提高。
The performance of a system is always limited by the availability of a critical input. Alleviate the Constraint, and the system’s performance will improve.
在目标：持续改进的过程中，Eliyahu Goldratt 解释了他所谓的“约束理论”：任何可管理的系统在实现更多目标方面总是受到至少一个约束的限制。如果您可以识别并减轻约束，您将增加系统的吞吐量。
In The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement, Eliyahu Goldratt explains what he calls the “Theory of Constraints”: any manageable system is always limited in achieving more of its Goal by at least one Constraint. If you can identify and alleviate the Constraint, you’ll increase the Throughput of the system.
在 Constraint 前面创建或增加Stock的大小可以帮助缓解这个问题。如果您的引擎用完了，增加引擎库存中的Slack是缓解约束的最佳方法。通过确保约束不“饥饿”，您可以提高整个系统的性能。
Creating or increasing the size of a Stock in front of a Constraint can help alleviate the issue. If you’re running out of engines, increasing the Slack in your engine Stock is the best way to alleviate the Constraint. By ensuring that the Constraint isn’t “starved,” you can increase the performance of the entire system.
为了找到并消除约束，Goldratt 提出了“五个聚焦步骤”，一种可用于提高任何系统吞吐量的方法：
In order to find and eliminate a Constraint, Goldratt proposes the “Five Focusing Steps,” a method you can use to improve the Throughput of any system:
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识别——检查系统以找出限制因素。如果您的汽车装配线正在等待发动机以便继续进行，那么发动机就是您的约束。
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Identification—examining the system to find the limiting factor. If your automotive assembly line is waiting on engines in order to proceed, engines are your Constraint.
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剥削——确保与约束相关的资源不被浪费。如果负责制造发动机的员工也在建造挡风玻璃，或者在午餐时间停止制造发动机，那么利用约束看起来就像是让发动机员工将 100% 的可用时间和能源用于生产发动机，并让他们轮班工作，这样休息时间就可以了在不减慢生产速度的情况下采取。
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Exploitation—ensuring that the resources related to the Constraint aren’t wasted. If the employees responsible for making engines are also building windshields, or stop building engines during lunchtime, exploiting the Constraint would look like having the engine employees spend 100 percent of their available time and energy producing engines, and having them work in shifts so breaks can be taken without slowing down production.
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从属——重新设计整个系统以支持约束。假设您已尽一切努力充分利用引擎生产系统，但您仍然落后。从属将重新安排工厂，以便制造发动机所需的一切都近在咫尺，而不是要求某些材料来自工厂的另一端。其他子系统可能不得不移动或丢失资源，但这不是什么大问题，因为它们不是约束。
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Subordination—redesigning the entire system to support the Constraint. Let’s assume you’ve done everything you can to get the most out of the engine-production system, but you’re still behind. Subordination would be rearranging the factory so everything needed to build the engine is close at hand, instead of requiring certain materials to come from the other end of the factory. Other subsystems may have to move or lose resources, but that’s not a huge deal, since they’re not the Constraint.
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提升——永久增加约束的容量。就工厂而言，提升就是购买另一台发动机制造机器并雇用更多工人来操作它。提升是非常有效的，但它很昂贵——如果没有必要，你不想花费数百万美元购买更多设备。这就是为什么剥削和从属是第一位的：你通常可以快速缓解约束，而无需花费更多的钱。
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Elevation—permanently increasing the capacity of the Constraint. In the case of the factory, elevation would be buying another engine-making machine and hiring more workers to operate it. Elevation is very effective, but it’s expensive—you don’t want to spend millions on more equipment if you don’t have to. That’s why exploitation and subordination come first: you can often alleviate a Constraint quickly, without resorting to spending more money.
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重新评估——进行更改后，重新评估系统以查看约束所在的位置。惯性是你的敌人。不要假设引擎永远是约束：一旦你做了一些改变，限制因素可能会变成挡风玻璃。在那种情况下，继续专注于增加发动机产量是没有意义的——在挡风玻璃成为改进重点之前，系统不会改进。
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Reevaluation—after making a change, reevaluating the system to see where the Constraint is located. Inertia is your enemy. Don’t assume engines will always be the Constraint: once you make a few Changes, the limiting factor might become windshields. In that case, it doesn’t make sense to continue focusing on increasing engine production—the system won’t improve until windshields become the focus of improvement.
“五个聚焦步骤”与迭代速度非常相似——您完成此过程的速度越快，完成的周期越多，系统的吞吐量就会提高得越多。
The “Five Focusing Steps” are very similar to Iteration Velocity—the faster you move through this process and the more cycles you complete, the more your system’s Throughput will improve.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/constraint/
反馈回路
Feedback Loop
信息反馈控制系统是所有生活和人类努力的基础。. . 我们作为个人、行业或社会所做的一切都是在信息反馈系统的背景下完成的。
Systems of information-feedback control are fundamental to all life and human endeavor . . . Everything we do as individuals, as an industry, or as a society is done in the context of an information-feedback system.
—JAY W. FORRESTER，麻省理工学院系统理论家和教授
—JAY W. FORRESTER, SYSTEMS THEORIST AND PROFESSOR AT MIT
因果关系很容易考虑，但是当结果本身变成原因时会发生什么？
Cause and effect are easy enough to consider, but what happens when the effects become causes themselves?
只要系统的输出成为下一个循环的输入之一，就会存在反馈回路。反馈是系统学习的方式——如果系统能够感知其环境，则该反馈有助于系统了解它是否处于控制之下并满足所需的选择测试。
Feedback Loops exist whenever the output of a system becomes one of the inputs in the next cycle. Feedback is how systems learn—if the system is capable of perceiving its Environment, that feedback helps the system understand whether it’s under control and satisfying the required Selection Tests.
平衡回路会抑制每个系统周期的输出，从而导致系统平衡和变革阻力。想一想从肩膀高度掉落一个网球：它会上下弹跳，每次弹跳都比上一次小。摩擦力和空气阻力会抑制每个循环，直到系统中的能量达到平衡并且球静止在地面上。
Balancing loops dampen each system cycle’s output, leading to system equilibrium and resistance to change. Think of dropping a tennis ball from shoulder height: it’ll bounce up and down, each bounce smaller than the last. Friction and air resistance dampen each cycle until the energy in the system reaches equilibrium and the ball sits at rest upon the ground.
平衡回路稳定系统，抑制振荡并使系统保持在特定状态。感知控制系统通常由平衡回路组成。回到恒温器示例：如果房间温度高于参考水平，冷却系统将启动以降低温度。如果温度低于参考水平，加热器将打开以升高温度。结果，系统倾向于保持稳定的温度，这就是它的目的。
Balancing loops stabilize the system, dampening oscillations and keeping the system in a certain state. Perceptual Control systems are usually made up of balancing loops. Going back to the thermostat example: If the temperature of a room is higher than the Reference Level, the cooling system will kick in to move the temperature lower. If the temperature is lower than the Reference Level, the heater will turn on to bring the temperature up. As a result, the system tends to maintain a stable temperature, which is its purpose.
增强回路会在每个系统循环中放大系统的输出。随着时间的推移，强化循环往往会导致失控的增长或衰退。想想两家公司之间的价格战，每家公司都在竞争有最低的价格。A公司降低价格，然后B公司通过将价格进一步降低来进行报复。只要每家公司的参考水平仍然是“我们的价格必须低于竞争对手的”，价格就会继续下降，直到两家公司都消除了他们在该产品上的利润率。
Reinforcing loops amplify the system’s output with each system cycle. Reinforcing loops tend to lead to runaway growth or decay over time. Think of a price war between two companies, each of which is competing to have the lowest price. Company A lowers its price, then Company B retaliates by moving its price even lower. As long as each company’s Reference Level remains “our price must be lower than our competitor’s,” prices will continue to drop until both companies eliminate their Profit Margins on that offering.
复合是正增强回路的一个例子。每个周期的利息支付都会使下一个周期的本金更大，从而产生更多的利息，从而继续循环。随着时间的推移，累积的利息可以累积到巨额金额，这就是该系统的目的。
Compounding is an example of a positive reinforcing loop. Each cycle of interest payments makes the principal of the next cycle bigger, resulting in even more interest, continuing the cycle. Over time, accumulated interest can build to enormous sums, which is the purpose of the system.
通常情况下，每个股票的大小都受到几个循环的影响，所有循环都将其拉向不同的方向。想想你的银行账户余额：有反馈回路控制着你的收入、租金/抵押贷款、食品支出和其他支出。您正在评估每个循环是否过多或不足，这代表一个平衡的反馈循环。流入或流出过多或不足会导致您立即采取行动，这会影响下一个周期。
More often than not, the size of every Stock is influenced by several loops, all pulling it in different directions. Consider your bank account balance: there are Feedback Loops controlling your income, rent/mortgage, food expenditures, and other expenses. You’re evaluating whether each cycle is too much or not enough, which represents a balancing Feedback Loop. Too much or not enough inflow or outflow causes you to jump into action, which affects the next cycle.
环顾四周——反馈环无处不在。一旦你开始注意到它们，你就会完全体会到我们生活的系统不断变化的复杂性。
Look around you—there are Feedback Loops everywhere. Once you start noticing them, you’ll fully appreciate the ever-changing complexity of the systems we live in.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/feedback-loops/
自催化
Autocatalysis
发展最快的系统必须处于混沌的边缘，更准确地说，处于混沌的边缘——具有秩序，但各部分之间的连接松散到足以轻易改变。
The system that will evolve most rapidly must fall between, and more precisely on, the edge of chaos—possessing order, but with the parts connected loosely enough to be easily altered.
——EO WILSON，生物学家和博物学家
—E. O. WILSON, BIOLOGIST AND NATURALIST
自催化是一个来自化学的概念：它是一种反应，其输出产生相同反应所需的原材料。
Autocatalysis is a concept that comes from chemistry: it’s a reaction whose output produces the raw materials necessary for an identical reaction.
自动催化系统产生下一个循环所需的输入作为前一个循环的副产品，放大循环。自动催化是一个复合的、积极的、自我强化的反馈回路——系统将继续增长，直到系统以产生更少输出的方式发生变化。
An Autocatalyzing system produces the inputs necessary for the next cycle as a by-product of the previous cycle, Amplifying the cycle. Autocatalysis is a Compounding, positive, self-reinforcing Feedback Loop—the system will continue to grow until the system changes in a way that produces less output.
从 50 年代到 90 年代的电视广告是极好的自催化的例子。公司可以在广告上花费 1 美元，并通过增加需求和分销获得 2 美元或更多的回报。这 2 美元再投资于广告，变成了 4 美元，变成了 8 美元，变成了 16 美元，等等。宝洁、通用电气、卡夫和雀巢等大众市场消费品公司利用这个周期成为了今天的庞然大物。
Television advertising from the 1950s to the 1990s is an excellent example of Autocatalysis. Companies could spend $1 in advertising and, via increased demand and distribution, get $2 or more in return. That $2, reinvested in advertising, became $4, which became $8, which became $16, etc. Mass-market consumer goods companies like Procter & Gamble, General Electric, Kraft, and Nestlé used this cycle to become the behemoths they are today.
现在，投资 1 美元在电视广告上很幸运能获得 1.20 美元的回报——频道更多，广告更贵，而且人们拥有过滤掉不需要的干扰的技术。循环在某些情况下仍然有效，但它不像以前那样有效。
Now, $1 invested in television advertising is lucky to return $1.20—there are more channels, advertising is more expensive, and people have the technology to filter out unwanted distractions. The loop still works in some circumstances, but it doesn’t work as well as it used to.
自动催化并不总是涉及金钱：“网络效应”和“病毒循环”也是自动催化的例子。每次有人注册社交媒体网络时，他们都会邀请更多用户加入该网络。每当有人在互联网上看到有趣的视频时，他们都会把它传给几个朋友。这就是自催化。
Autocatalysis doesn’t always have to involve money: “network effects” and “viral loops” are also examples of Autocatalysis. Every time someone signs up for a social-media network, they’ll invite even more users to the network. Every time someone sees a funny video on the internet, they’ll pass it along to several friends. That’s Autocatalysis.
如果您的企业包含一些自动催化元素，它的增长速度将超过您的预期。
If your business includes some Autocatalyzing element, it’ll grow faster than you expect.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/autocatalysis/
环境
Environment
现实就是当你不再相信它时，它不会消失。
Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away.
——PHILIP K. DICK，科幻小说家
—PHILIP K. DICK, SCIENCE-FICTION NOVELIST
没有系统是独立的：每个系统都会受到周围所有其他系统的影响。
No system stands alone: every system is affected by all of the other systems around it.
环境是系统运行的结构。环境主要影响或影响系统的流程或过程，改变系统的输出。
An Environment is the structure in which a system operates. The Environment primarily influences or impacts the system’s Flows or processes, changing the output of the system.
想想你的身体在太热或太冷时的反应。太多或太少的热量都会杀死你：你的身体必须对环境的变化做出反应才能继续运转，要么通过出汗来散发多余的热量，要么通过遮蔽来保存热量。
Think of how your body responds when it’s either too hot or too cold. Too much or too little heat can kill you: your body must respond to the change in its Environment to keep operating, either by sweating to shed excess heat or by sheltering to preserve it.
当环境改变时，系统必须随之改变才能继续运行。根据大多数主流理论，恐龙由于环境的变化而灭绝，这是由于冰河时代或陨石撞击产生的足够多的灰尘遮蔽了太阳。更冷的温度和更少的阳光导致严重的食物短缺，导致大规模灭绝。
When the Environment changes, the system must change with it to continue operating. According to most leading theories, the dinosaurs became extinct because of changes in the Environment, due to either an ice age or a meteorite impact that kicked up enough dust to blot out the sun. Colder temperatures and less sunlight resulted in major food shortages, resulting in mass extinction.
环境中存在的条件会影响系统在该环境中的运行。2005年，油价飙升，许多依赖石油生产塑料或运输货物的企业陷入困境。可变成本的增加使许多企业的利润不如以前，许多无法消化成本增加的企业倒闭了。
The conditions present in the Environment affect the operation of the system in that Environment. In 2005, oil prices skyrocketed, and many businesses that relied on oil to manufacture plastics or transport goods ran into trouble. The increase in variable costs made many businesses less profitable than they were before, and many businesses that couldn’t absorb the increase in costs closed.
如果您不想重蹈恐龙的覆辙，则必须始终考虑环境条件如何影响您的系统。
If you don’t want to go the way of the dinosaur, you must always consider how conditions in the Environment affect your system.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/environment/
选拔考试
Selection Test
对宇宙的任何一种反应，无论多么强大，都会随着时间和变化而变得不合适。那些完全依赖一种掌握方式的人会发现自己无法应对未来。
Any one response to the universe, however powerful, becomes inappropriate with time and change. Those who become utterly dependent on one means of mastery will find themselves unable to cope with the future.
——弗兰克·赫伯特，科幻小说家
—FRANK HERBERT, SCIENCE-FICTION NOVELIST
自我延续的系统（如企业或有机体）只有在满足存在所必需的环境条件时才能自我延续。
Self-perpetuating systems (like businesses or organisms) can only self-perpetuate as long as they meet the Environmental conditions necessary to exist.
选择测试是一种环境约束，用于确定哪些系统继续自我延续以及哪些系统“死亡”。像人类这样的哺乳动物有几个选择测试：呼吸足够的空气、吃足够的食物、喝足够的水和保持足够的热量。企业也有选择测试：为客户提供足够的价值，足够的收入来支付费用，足够的利润来保持财务上足够。
A Selection Test is an Environmental Constraint that determines which systems continue to self-perpetuate and which ones “die.” Mammals like humans have several Selection Tests: breathing enough air, eating enough food, drinking enough water, and retaining enough heat. Businesses also have Selection Tests: enough value provided to customers, enough revenue to cover expenses, enough Profit to stay financially Sufficient.
许多人认为选拔测试是“适者生存”，但“适者死亡”是更准确的描述。如果一个自我延续的系统未能满足选择测试，它将不复存在。如果你得不到足够的空气，你就会死。如果您的企业无法带来足够的收入来维持 Sufficiency，它就会死掉。
Many people think of Selection Tests as “survival of the fittest,” but “death of the unfit” is a more accurate description. If a self-perpetuating system fails to satisfy a Selection Test, it will cease to exist. If you can’t get enough air, you’ll die. If your business can’t bring in enough revenue to maintain Sufficiency, it’ll die.
随着环境的变化，选择测试也会发生变化。在技术市场中，选择测试特别值得关注，因为“可能”的环境正在发生变化。未能利用技术重大变革的企业发现他们无法跟上客户对其产品提出的新需求。
As the Environment changes, the Selection Tests change as well. Selection Tests are particularly interesting to watch in the technology market, where the Environment of “what’s possible” changes. Businesses that fail to take advantage of major changes in technology find that they’re unable to keep up with the new demands customers make for their products.
不断变化的环境和选拔测试是企业家最好的朋友——它们使小公司能够超越大型、根深蒂固的竞争对手。如果您能确定市场中的选择测试是什么，您将能够在该市场竞争中取得更大的成功。
Changing Environments and Selection Tests are an entrepreneur’s best friend—they’re what allow small companies to outperform large, entrenched competitors. If you can identify what the Selection Tests in a market are, you’ll be able to compete in that market with more success.
选拔测试是无情的：满足他们，你就会茁壮成长。无法适应不断变化的环境，你就会死去。
Selection Tests are ruthless: satisfy them and you’ll thrive. Fail to adapt to changing conditions and you’ll die.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/selection-test/
熵
Entropy
那些因为是变化而不会面对改进的人将面临不是改进的变化。
Those who will not face improvements because they are changes will face changes that are not improvements.
——查理芒格，沃伦巴菲特的亿万富翁商业伙伴，WESCO FINANCIAL 前首席执行官，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司副董事长
—CHARLIE MUNGER, BILLIONAIRE BUSINESS PARTNER OF WARREN BUFFETT, FORMER CEO OF WESCO FINANCIAL, AND VICE-CHAIRMAN OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY
任由它们自行其是，复杂的系统就会陷入混乱。
Left to their own devices, complex systems fall into disorder.
熵是复杂系统随时间退化的自然趋势。长期保持运行的系统需要积极维护和改进。
Entropy is the natural tendency for complex systems to degrade over time. Systems that remain operating over long periods of time require active maintenance and improvement.
这种现象有一个简单的解释：系统运行的环境随时间而变化。这些更改会影响系统本身的操作以及系统必须通过的选择测试才能继续运行。如果系统没有以使其能够继续运行的方式发生变化，它将降级并最终停止运行或不复存在。
This phenomenon has a simple explanation: the Environment the system operates within changes over time. Those changes affect both the operation of system itself and the Selection Tests the system must pass in order to continue functioning. If the system doesn’t change in a way that enables it to continue operating, it will degrade and will eventually stop functioning or cease to exist.
熵无处不在。如果没有足够的营养、运动和氧气，您的健康就会受到影响。道路需要每隔几年重新铺设路面，否则会出现裂缝、颠簸和坑洼。软件需要更新和打补丁，否则它将随着计算机更新和连接的系统更改而停止运行。房屋需要重新粉刷、修补和翻新，以保持良好状态。
Entropy is everywhere. Without adequate nutrition, movement, and oxygen, your health will suffer. Roads need to be resurfaced every few years or they’ll develop cracks, bumps, and potholes. Software needs to be updated and patched, or it will stop functioning as computers are updated and connected systems change. Houses need to be repainted, refinished, and refurbished to keep them in good condition.
熵使维护成为必要且有价值的活动。在大多数组织中，创造新事物是一种社会地位高的活动，而维护现有系统被认为是一种社会地位较低的活动。这是一个巨大的错误：组织的强大程度取决于维持其运作能力的现有系统。投入注意力和资源来维护和改进这些系统不仅很重要，而且对于长期运营和长期保值也至关重要。
Entropy makes maintenance a necessary and valuable activity. In most organizations, creating something new is a high Social Status activity, while maintaining existing systems is considered a lower-status activity. That’s a huge mistake: the organization is only as strong as its existing systems, which sustain its ability to function. Devoting attention and resources to maintaining and improving those systems is not only important, it’s critical for long-term operation and preserving value over time.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/entropy/
不确定
Uncertainty
以水晶球为生的人很快就会学会吃毛玻璃。
He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass.
——埃德加·R·菲德勒，经济学家
—EDGAR R. FIEDLER, ECONOMIST
十年后的利率会是什么样子？你认为明年油价会在哪里？那家公司的股票怎么样——它是便宜还是定价过高？现在储备原材料好还是等几个月好？商人每天都会处理这样的问题。
What will interest rates look like ten years from now? Where do you think the price of oil will be next year? How about that company stock—is it cheap or overpriced? Is it better to stockpile raw materials now or wait a few months? Businesspeople deal with questions like these daily.
以下是所有这些问题的答案：没人知道。我们这个世界是一个不确定的地方，这既是福也是祸。任何事情都可能发生，无论是好是坏——我们不知道转弯处会发生什么。
Here’s the answer to all of these questions: nobody knows. This world of ours is an uncertain place, which is both a blessing and a curse. Anything can happen, for good or ill—we can’t know what’s around the bend.
风险和不确定性之间存在巨大差异。用美国前国防部长唐纳德拉姆斯菲尔德的不朽名言：
There’s an enormous difference between risk and Uncertainty. In the immortal words of former US secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld:
有已知的知识。这些是我们知道的事情。有已知的未知数。也就是说，有些事情我们知道我们不知道。但也有未知的未知数。这些是我们不知道我们不知道的事情。
There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we don’t know we don’t know.
风险是已知的未知数。如果您打算去机场接朋友，他们的航班晚点几个小时的可能性是一个风险——您事先知道到达时间可能会改变，因此您可以为突发事件做好准备。
Risks are known unknowns. If you’re planning to pick up a friend from the airport, the probability that their flight will arrive several hours late is a risk—you know in advance that the arrival time can change, so you can plan for contingencies.
不确定性是未知的未知数。你可能会迟到去机场接你的朋友，因为在你计划去机场前一个小时，一颗陨石炸毁了你的车。谁能预料到？
Uncertainties are unknown unknowns. You may be late picking up your friend from the airport because a meteorite demolishes your car an hour before you planned to leave for the airport. Who could predict that?
面对不确定性，您无法根据过去的事件预测未来。意外或随机事件可能会突然发生，这会对您的目标和计划产生重大影响。
You can’t predict the future based on past events in the face of Uncertainty. Unexpected or random events can occur suddenly, which can have major impacts on your goals and plans.
在黑天鹅中，前对冲基金经理 Nassim Nicholas Taleb 描述了不确定性的危险。无论事情看起来多么稳定或可预测，不可预测的“黑天鹅事件”可以瞬间改变一切。
In The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former hedge fund manager, describes the perils of Uncertainty. No matter how stable or predictable things seem, unpredictable “black swan events” can change everything in an instant.
“黑天鹅”一词是 16 世纪伦敦的一种常见表达方式，用于表示不可能或不存在的事物——每个人都知道所有天鹅都是白色的。这个术语的问题就是 18 世纪哲学家大卫·休谟所说的“归纳问题”：在你看到每只存在的天鹅之前，你永远不能假设“所有天鹅都是白色的”这句话是真的。只需要一只黑天鹅就可以推翻这个假设，1697 年荷兰船长 Willem de Vlamingh 在澳大利亚记录到黑天鹅时就发生了这种情况。
The term “black swan” was a common expression in sixteenth-century London for something that was impossible or didn’t exist—everyone knew that all swans were white. The problem with the term is what eighteenth-century philosopher David Hume called the “problem of induction”: until you see every swan that exists, you can never assume the statement “all swans are white” is true. All it takes is one black swan to invalidate the hypothesis, which happened when black swans were documented in Australia in 1697 by Dutch sea captain Willem de Vlamingh.
在它们发生的前一刻，“黑天鹅”事件发生的概率接近于零。在黑天鹅事件之后，它发生的可能性是一个有争议的问题：事件改变了系统运行的环境，有时会在没有警告的情况下彻底改变选择测试。您无法提前知道是否（或哪些）黑天鹅事件会发生：您所能做的就是保持足够的灵活性、做好准备和足够的弹性，以便在它们发生时做出适当的反应。
The moment before they happen, the probability of “black swan” events occurring is close to zero. In the wake of a black swan event, the probability of its occurring is a moot point: the event changes the Environment in which the system operates, sometimes drastically changing Selection Tests without warning. You can’t know in advance if (or which) black swan events will occur: all you can do is be flexible, prepared, and Resilient enough to react appropriately if and when they do.
即使是对大量历史数据进行最详细的分析也无法使您免于不确定性。大多数 MBA 课程教授的金融模型的主要缺点是不确定性：您的备考、净现值 (NPV) 或资本资产定价模型 (CAPM) 计算的好坏取决于您的预测质量。许多企业因财务预测被证明是错误的而毁于一旦。您的十年财务预测以 100% 的准确性预测将要发生的一切的可能性有多大？谁说明天会像今天一样？
Even the most detailed analysis with reams of historical data can’t save you from Uncertainty. The primary drawback of the financial models taught in most MBA programs is Uncertainty: your pro forma, net present value (NPV) or capital asset pricing model (CAPM) calculation is only as good as the quality of your predictions. Many a business has been ruined by financial predictions that turned out to be wrong. How likely is it that your ten-year financial projection predicts everything that will happen with 100 percent accuracy? Who says tomorrow is going to be anything like today?
许多人以销售确定性为业，而这种确定性并不存在。预测、预测和其他形式的商业占卜是之所以受欢迎，是因为它们提供了未来是可知和可控的错觉。预测练习不值得付出代价——如果有一种万无一失的方法来预测汽油价格、利率或股票价格，那么拥有这种神奇知识的人将成为亿万富翁，并且不需要向你出售任何东西。
Many people make a business of selling certainty, which doesn’t exist. Prediction, forecasting, and other forms of business soothsaying are popular because they provide the illusion that the future is knowable and controllable. Exercises in prediction aren’t worth the cost—if there were a foolproof way to predict gas prices, interest rates, or stock prices, the people with that magic knowledge would be multibillionaires and would have no need to sell anything to you.
吸收不确定性的无处不在的本质是一种练习，可以看到世界的本来面目，而不是我们想要的样子。我们都希望感觉自己知道未来会发生什么，特别是考虑到我们很容易出现损失规避和威胁锁定。考虑不确定性感觉很糟糕，因为不知道会发生什么感觉就像是一种威胁。与其专注于预测看不见和不可知的威胁，不如将精力投入到增强处理意外事件的能力上。
Absorbing the ever-present nature of Uncertainty is an exercise in seeing the world as it is, not as we want it to be. We all want to feel like we know what will happen in the future, particularly given how prone we are to Loss Aversion and Threat Lockdown. Contemplating Uncertainty feels bad, because not knowing what’s going to happen feels like a threat. Instead of fixating on predicting invisible and unknowable threats, it’s better to channel your energy into enhancing your ability to handle the unexpected.
不要依赖做出准确的预测——事情随时都可能发生变化。通过情景规划来规划应对不确定性的灵活性远比假装自己是先知有用得多。
Don’t rely on making accurate predictions—things can change at any time. Planning for flexibility in response to Uncertainty via Scenario Planning is far more useful than pretending to be a seer.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/uncertainty/
改变
Change
幸存下来的不是最强壮的物种，也不是最聪明的物种，而是对变化最敏感的物种。
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
——查尔斯·达尔文，博物学家和进化论的先驱
—CHARLES DARWIN, NATURALIST AND PIONEER OF EVOLUTIONARY THEORY
所有系统都在经历变化——没有系统处于停滞状态。
All systems undergo Change—there is no such thing as a system in stasis.
复杂系统处于不断变化的状态。系统将如何随时间变化存在很大的不确定性，但可以肯定的是系统会发生变化。不考虑变化的计划价值有限。
Complex systems are in a constant state of flux. There is a great deal of Uncertainty in how a system will Change over time, but it is certain that the system will Change. Plans that do not take Change into account are of limited value.
变化是生活中的事实。从心理上讲，很难内化某些事情是随机的：世界上发生的许多事情都没有规律或原因。由于我们天生的模式匹配能力，我们倾向于看到不存在的模式，如果变化是好的，我们倾向于将随机变化归因于技能，如果变化不好，则倾向于将其归因于不幸。结果，我们被随机性愚弄了——这是纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布 (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) 第一本书的书名。
Change is a fact of life. Psychologically, it’s very difficult to internalize that some things are random: there’s no rhyme or reason to many of the things that happen in the world. Because of our natural Pattern Matching abilities, we tend to see patterns where none exist and tend to attribute random Changes to skill if the Changes are good or to misfortune if they’re bad. As a result, we’re Fooled by Randomness—the title of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s first book.
你永远不会把事业发展到万事俱备、一成不变的地步。许多企业主和经理都有一个未经检验的信念，即通过将企业“从优秀变为卓越”，它将“经久不衰”，在未来几十年继续超越竞争对手。这是一个愉快的梦想，但用那个标准来衡量自己是不现实的——它需要一个不变的世界。
You will never develop your business to the point that everything is perfect and unchanging. Many business owners and managers share an unexamined belief that by moving a business “from good to great,” it’ll be “built to last,” continuing to outperform competitors for decades to come. It’s a pleasant dream, but measuring yourself against that yardstick is unrealistic—it requires an unchanging world.
关于改变，你唯一能做的就是增加你处理各种不同情况的灵活性。你越灵活，当事情发生变化时你就越有弹性。
The only thing you can do about Change is increase your flexibility to handle a wide variety of different circumstances. The more flexible you are, the more Resilient you’ll be when things Change.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/change/
相互依赖
Interdependence
当我们试图单独挑选出任何东西时，我们会发现它与宇宙中的其他一切都息息相关。
When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the universe.
——约翰·缪尔，博物学家
—JOHN MUIR, NATURALIST
世界上没有任何事物是孤立存在的。
Nothing in the world exists in isolation.
复杂系统几乎总是依赖于其他系统才能运行。您的冰箱需要电力才能运行。当您当地的发电厂发生故障时，您的冰箱也会发生故障。这就是相互依存。
Complex systems almost always rely on other systems in order to operate. Your refrigerator requires electricity to operate. When your local power plant fails, your refrigerator fails as well. That’s Interdependence.
高度相互依赖的系统有时被称为“紧密耦合”系统。系统中的进程耦合得越紧密，故障或延迟就越有可能影响系统的其他部分。
Highly Interdependent systems are sometimes referred to as “tightly coupled” systems. The more tightly coupled the processes in a system are, the more likely failures or delays will affect other parts of the system.
紧密耦合的系统通常具有时间依赖性和严格的顺序，并且几乎没有Slack。通常只有一条通往成功结果的途径，系统任何部分的故障都可能“级联”到系统的其余部分。
Tightly coupled systems are often time dependent and rigidly ordered, and have very little Slack. There’s often only one path to a successful outcome, and a failure in any part of the system can “cascade” to the rest of the system.
如果您见过 Rube Goldberg 机器或玩过儿童棋盘游戏 Mousetrap，您就会看到一个紧密耦合的系统。在一连串的多米诺骨牌中，当一张多米诺骨牌无法推翻另一张时，整个系统就会陷入停顿。
If you’ve ever seen a Rube Goldberg machine or played the children’s board game Mousetrap, you’ve seen a tightly coupled system. In a cascade of dominoes, when one domino fails to knock over the next, the entire system grinds to a halt.
如果您听说过项目管理术语“关键路径”，您就会知道相互依赖的重要性。关键路径只包含为了完成项目而必须完成的任务日程。如果关键路径上的某些内容发生变化，则该更改会级联到路径上的其他所有内容。关键路径上任务的任何延迟都会延迟整个项目。
If you’ve ever heard the project management term “critical path,” you know the importance of Interdependencies. The critical path contains only the tasks that must be completed in order for the project to be finished on schedule. If something on the critical path changes, that change cascades to everything else on the path. Any delay in a task on the critical path will delay the entire project.
“松散耦合”系统的相互依赖程度较低。松散耦合的系统更宽松：它们不依赖于时间。您可以使用“并行处理”，一次完成多个步骤。有很多 Slack，您可以使用许多不同的策略来实现您的目标。
“Loosely coupled” systems have low degrees of Interdependence. Loosely coupled systems are more relaxed: they’re not time dependent. You may be able to use “parallel processing,” completing multiple steps at a time. There’s plenty of Slack, and you may be able to accomplish your goal using many different strategies.
想一想一个管弦乐队，它由一名指挥和许多乐器演奏家组成。如果第一把小提琴弹错了音符，演奏的质量就会受到影响，但这个错误不一定会波及到乐团的其他部分。
Think of an orchestra, which consists of a conductor and many instrumentalists. If the first violin hits the wrong note, the quality of the performance will be affected, but the mistake won’t necessarily cascade to the rest of the orchestra.
您可以通过删除依赖项来降低系统的相互依赖性。“依赖性”是在流程的下一阶段发生之前所需的输入。系统中的依赖项越多，延迟或系统故障的可能性就越高。
You can make a system less Interdependent by removing dependencies. A “dependency” is an input that’s required before the next stage of a process can take place. The more dependencies there are in a system, the higher the likelihood of delay or system failure.
消除依赖性可以降低系统的紧密耦合。回想一下汽车装配线的例子：如果必须在安装挡风玻璃之前安装发动机，那么发动机出现问题就会延误整个系统。如果零件的安装顺序无关紧要，则可以通过多种方式组装一辆成品车。
Eliminating dependencies makes a system less tightly coupled. Think back to the automotive assembly line example: if you must put in the engine before the windshield is installed, an engine problem will delay the entire system. If it doesn’t matter in which order the parts are installed, it’s possible to assemble a finished vehicle in more than one way.
消除不必要的依赖关系，您将降低级联故障的风险。
Eliminate unnecessary dependencies and you’ll reduce the risk of a cascading failure.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/interdependence/
交易对手风险
Counterparty Risk
使幸福的一切都取决于自己而不是其他人的人，已经采取了幸福生活的最佳计划。
The man who makes everything that leads to happiness depend upon himself, and not upon other men, has adopted the very best plan for living happily.
——柏拉图，公元前四世纪的希腊哲学家
—PLATO, FOURTH-CENTURY-BCE GREEK PHILOSOPHER
如果您的系统依赖于其他人才能运行，那么这会对您的系统的运行构成重大风险。
If your system relies on other people in order to function, that poses a major risk to the operation of your system.
交易对手风险是其他人不会交付什么的可能性他们已经答应了。如果你的房子被烧毁，你只能在你购买保险单的公司仍在营业的情况下对你的房主保险提出索赔。如果不是，那你就有麻烦了。
Counterparty Risk is the possibility that other people won’t deliver what they have promised. If your house burns down, you can only make a claim on your homeowner’s insurance if the company you purchased the insurance policy from is still in business. If it’s not, you’re in trouble.
如果您的制造系统依赖第三方供应商提供某些零件，而他们无法履行承诺，您的生产线就会停止。
If your manufacturing system relies on a third-party vendor to supply certain parts and they’re not able to honor their commitments, your manufacturing line stops.
如果您将工作外包给承包商，而该承包商没有按照承诺履行职责，您的项目就会被推迟。
If you outsource work to a contractor and that contractor doesn’t perform as promised, your project will be delayed.
过多的交易对手风险会增加灾难性系统故障的风险。在 2008 年的华尔街崩盘中，全球最大的投资银行都处于破产边缘，因为它们在出现问题时相互依赖。
Too much Counterparty Risk increases the risk of catastrophic system failure. In the 2008 Wall Street crash, the world’s largest investment banks stood on the brink of insolvency because they all relied on one another in the event something went wrong.
投资银行和金融公司，如高盛、摩根大通和雷曼兄弟，从其他大公司购买“信用违约掉期”，这是一种金融保险。如果高杠杆交易失败，这些投资银行认为他们购买的保险可以保护他们免受数百万美元的损失，因此他们承担了越来越多的杠杆，增加了他们的风险敞口。
Investment banks and financial firms like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Lehman Brothers made a practice of buying “credit default swaps,” a form of financial Insurance, from other large firms. If a highly Leveraged deal went south, these investment banks thought the Insurance they had purchased would protect them from multimillion-dollar losses, so they took on more and more Leverage, increasing their risk exposure.
当房地产市场崩溃并且银行开始因持有的抵押贷款证券而亏损时，他们试图收回信用违约掉期。你瞧，他们购买互换的其他银行也在抵押贷款支持证券上损失了巨额资金，无法履行义务。每家大型投资银行都是系统中其他银行风险的交易对手。因为他们都互相依赖，所以一家银行倒了，他们就都倒了。
When the housing market collapsed and the banks started losing money on the mortgage securities they held, they tried calling in their credit default swaps. Lo and behold, the other banks they had purchased the swaps from had also lost a huge amount of money on mortgage-backed securities and couldn’t honor the obligations. Every large investment bank was a counterparty to the risk of the other banks in the system. Because they all relied on one another, when one bank fell, they all fell.
交易对手风险被计划谬误放大了。你的合作伙伴和你一样无法预测未来，而且每个人都倾向于对计划和最后期限持乐观态度。制定计划和承诺，但始终要为项目未按预期进行的情况制定计划。
Counterparty Risk is Amplified by the Planning Fallacy. Your partners can’t predict the future any more than you can, and everyone has a tendency to be optimistic regarding plans and deadlines. Make plans and commitments, but always have a plan for when the project doesn’t go as expected.
当你的系统依赖于你无法控制的人的表现时，尽你所能为他们无法按预期表现的可能性做好准备。
When your system relies on the performance of someone outside of your control, do all that you can to prepare for the possibility that they won’t perform as expected.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/counterparty-risk/
二阶效应
Second-Order Effects
虽然我们可以自由选择我们的行为，但我们不能自由选择我们行为的后果。
While we are free to choose our actions, we are not free to choose the consequences of our actions.
—斯蒂芬·科维，《高效能人士的七个习惯》的作者
—STEPHEN COVEY, AUTHOR OF THE 7 HABITS OF HIGHLY EFFECTIVE PEOPLE
几年前，凯尔西和我有机会访问巴林王国，这是一个距离沙特阿拉伯东海岸几英里的小岛国。现在以其国际银行实力、珍珠潜水和国际一级方程式赛车场而闻名，不久前，巴林还以其独特的生态系统而闻名。
A few years ago, Kelsey and I had the opportunity to visit the kingdom of Bahrain, a small island country a few miles off the east coast of Saudi Arabia. Now known for its international banking prowess, pearl diving, and international Formula One racing track, it wasn’t too long ago that Bahrain was known for its unique ecosystem.
几十年前，巴林内陆是郁郁葱葱的自然绿地——据说是伊甸园原址的岛屿绿洲。现在岛上的内部是一片荒凉的沙漠，当地的植物生命是通过灌溉维持的。什么改变了？
A few decades ago, the interior of Bahrain was lush with natural greenery—an island oasis said to be the original site of the Garden of Eden. Now the interior of the island is a stark desert, and local plant life is maintained via irrigation. What changed?
巴林四周环绕着地下淡水泉网络，这些泉水既滋养了岛上的植物，又刺激了当地的牡蛎培育出品质卓越的珍珠。随着该国单一大城市麦纳麦的发展，市中心的土地变得稀缺，因此开发商采用了一种称为“土地复垦”的工艺，即从岛屿内部挖掘泥土并将其沉积在海岸上，“开垦”从海上登陆。
Bahrain is surrounded by a network of underground freshwater springs, which were responsible both for the island’s plant life and for spurring the local oysters to cultivate pearls of remarkable quality. As the country’s single large city, Manama, developed, land in the city center became scarce, so developers adopted a process called “land reclamation,” which involved excavating dirt from the interior of the island and depositing it on the coast, “reclaiming” land from the sea.
这种方法成功地创造了新的土地，但代价比预期的要高得多——岛上的泉水网干涸了，把这个国家变成了沙漠。
This approach was successful in creating new land, but at a much steeper cost than anticipated—the island’s network of springs dried up, turning the country into a desert.
每个动作都有一个后果，而这些后果又会产生后果，这被称为二阶效应。想一想一排多米诺骨牌——一次推动会导致一系列事件发生。一旦连锁开始，就很难（如果不是不可能的话）停止或逆转因果级联。
Every action has a consequence, and those consequences have consequences, which are called Second-Order Effects. Think of a line of dominoes—a single push causes a chain of events to occur. Once the chain starts, it’s difficult (if not impossible) to stop or reverse the cascade of cause and effect.
第二次世界大战后纽约市的租金管制是意外后果的另一个发人深省的例子。该政策最初旨在为返回的退伍军人提供负担得起的住房，但限制了该市某些地区的租金价格（以及房东提高租金的能力）。为退伍军人提供经济适用房是一个崇高的想法，对吧？
Rent control in New York City after World War II is another sobering example of unintended consequences. Originally intended to provide returning veterans with affordable housing, the policy capped rent prices (and the ability of landlords to raise them) in certain areas of the city. Affordable housing for veterans is a noble idea, right?
这是城市规划者没有想到的：每年，纽约市的物业维护成本都在持续上涨，但房东无法提高租金价格来补偿增加的成本。根据法律，除非原承租人搬家或建筑物被废弃，否则租金管制不能取消，因此房东拒绝维护他们的财产——这是浪费金钱。在财务上，最好让剩下的租户周围的建筑物恶化。
Here’s what the city planners didn’t expect: every year, the cost to maintain properties in New York City continued to rise, but landlords couldn’t raise rent prices to compensate for their increased costs. By law, rent control couldn’t be removed unless the original leaseholder moved or the building was condemned, so landlords refused to maintain their property—it was a waste of money. Financially, it was better to let the building deteriorate around the remaining tenants.
随着时间的推移，这项政策的影响是财产质量急剧下降，最终随着建筑物的报废而导致供应急剧下降，使住房更加昂贵。一项旨在使住房更负担得起的政策破坏了住房供应并使其更加昂贵——这与最初的意图相反。
The effect of this policy over time was a steep decline in the quality of property, and eventually supply, as buildings were condemned, making housing even more expensive. A policy intended to make housing more affordable destroyed housing supply and made it more expensive—the opposite of the original intent.
改变复杂系统的某些方面总是会引入二阶效应，其中一些可能与改变的初衷背道而驰。复杂系统中的元素可以以数百万种不同的方式相互关联或相互依赖，而不确定性保证您可能不知道如何发生。每一个行动都有一个后果，而这些后果总是有后果——即使你不知道它们是什么或者不希望它们发生。
Changing some aspect of a complex system always introduces Second-Order Effects, some of which may be antithetical to the original intent of the change. Elements in a complex system can be interrelated or dependent upon one another in millions of different ways, and Uncertainty guarantees that you probably don’t know how. Every action has a consequence, and those consequences always have consequences—even if you don’t know what they are or don’t want them to happen.
以极其谨慎的方式对复杂系统进行更改：您得到的可能与您期望的相反。
Approach making changes to a complex system with extreme caution: what you get may be the opposite of what you expect.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/second-order-effects/
外部性
Externality
我们的星球是巨大的宇宙黑暗中的一个孤独的斑点。在我们的默默无闻中，在这一切浩瀚之中，没有任何迹象表明会有来自其他地方的帮助来拯救我们脱离自我。. . 对我来说，它强调了我们有责任更友好地对待彼此，并保护和珍惜这个淡蓝色的圆点，我们所知道的唯一家园。
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves . . . To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we’ve ever known.
—卡尔·萨根 (CARL SAGAN)，物理学家，《淡蓝点》的作者：人类在太空中的未来愿景
—CARL SAGAN, PHYSICIST AND AUTHOR OF PALE BLUE DOT: A VISION OF THE HUMAN FUTURE IN SPACE
1868 年至 1969 年间，流经美国俄亥俄州克利夫兰市的伊利湖的一条大型支流凯霍加河至少发生了 13 次火灾。最大的一场火灾发生在 1952 年，造成超过 100 万美元的财产损失——以今天的美元计算超过 1000 万美元。
Between 1868 and 1969, the Cuyahoga River—a large tributary of Lake Erie that runs through the city of Cleveland, Ohio, in the United States—caught fire on at least thirteen separate occasions. The largest of the fires, which occurred in 1952, caused over $1 million of property damage—more than $10 million in today’s dollars.
根本原因并不神秘：石化产品、污水和制造副产品造成的污染非常严重，以至于从克利夫兰到阿克伦的 40 英里河段无法养活鱼类或其他水生生物。这条河是倾倒垃圾的便宜又方便的地方，因此许多工厂选择了阻力最小的道路，修建管道将工业废物输送到河里以节省资金。结果这条河死了（并着火了）。
The root cause wasn’t a mystery: pollution from petrochemicals, sewage, and manufacturing by-products was so severe that a forty-mile stretch of the river—from Cleveland to Akron—was unable to support fish or other aquatic life. The river was an inexpensive and convenient place to dump garbage, so many factories took the path of least resistance, building pipelines that carried industrial waste into the river in an effort to save money. The river died (and caught on fire) as a result.
这些事件的技术术语是外部性：影响主要受益人或决策者以外的各方的主要过程的副作用。克利夫兰及其周边地区的制造业是主要过程，工厂主和雇员是主要受益者：凯霍加河的污染以及该污染对其他人和生物的影响是外部性。对污染负责的公司将废物处理成本从其业务转移到整个社会。
The technical term for these events is Externality: a side effect of a primary process that affects parties beyond the primary beneficiaries or decision makers. Manufacturing in and around Cleveland was the primary process, and factory owners and employees were the primary beneficiaries: the pollution of the Cuyahoga and the effects of that pollution on other people and creatures were Externalities. The companies responsible for the pollution shifted the cost of waste disposal from their businesses to society at large.
如今，凯霍加河的状况要好得多。改善这种情况需要重大干预：防止和惩罚倾倒的法律、政策和法规，针对违规者的诉讼和罚款，以及用于清洁和恢复工作的资金。一旦确定并理解了外部性，就可以协调社会努力来解决问题并防止其再次发生。
Today, the Cuyahoga River is in much better shape. Improving the situation required significant intervention: laws, policies, and regulations that prevented and punished dumping, lawsuits and fines targeted at violators, and funds for cleaning and restoration efforts. Once the Externality was identified and understood, it was possible to coordinate societal efforts to fix the issue and prevent it from happening again.
污染不是负外部性的唯一类型。这是一个常见的例子：许多企业收集个人身份信息（通常缩写为“PII”）作为其营销、销售和客户支持工作的一部分。这些数据对于资格认证、市场细分和外展很有用，因此公司会竭尽全力收集尽可能多的信息。但是，有一个重要的外部性需要考虑：如果未经授权的用户（如黑客）获得此个人信息的访问权限，它可能会被用于各种邪恶目的，其中许多可能会给企业前景带来财务和法律问题和客户。
Pollution isn’t the only type of negative Externality. Here’s a common example: many businesses collect Personally Identifiable Information (often abbreviated “PII”) as part of their marketing, sales, and customer-support efforts. This data is useful for Qualification, Segmentation, and outreach, so firms go to great lengths to collect as much information as possible. There is, however, an important Externality to consider: if unauthorized users (like hackers) gain access to this personal information, it can be used for all sorts of nefarious purposes, many of which can create financial and legal issues for the businesses’ prospects and customers.
保护这些数据很重要，但它对企业的底线没有贡献，所以没有直接的动机去担心它。如果发生数据泄露，企业的前景和客户将付出代价。这使得 PII 既是资产也是负债：收集此类数据的公司有责任确保其安全并确保其系统免受未经授权的访问。
Securing this data is important, but it doesn’t contribute to the businesses’ bottom line, so there’s little direct incentive to worry about it. In the event of a data breach, the businesses’ prospects and customers pay the price. That makes PII both an asset and a liability: companies that collect this sort of data have a responsibility to keep it secure and ensure their systems are protected from unauthorized access.
许多负外部性可以通过以下方式避免或减轻预测潜在的二阶效应并努力防止意外后果。作为一般规则：如果您预计或发现因您的行为而发生（或可能发生）的负面影响，则您有责任尽可能地防止或减轻这些影响。
Many negative Externalities can be avoided or mitigated by anticipating potential Second-Order Effects and working to prevent unintended consequences. As a general rule: if you anticipate or identify negative side effects that occur (or may occur) as a result of your actions, it’s your responsibility to prevent or mitigate those effects as much as possible.
一些外部性是积极的。考虑像互联网或电话网络这样的通信技术：系统的每个额外用户都会使整个网络变得更有价值，从而产生使系统的每个用户都受益的“网络效应”。广泛的扫盲和公共卫生实践（如洗手和疫苗接种）等社会政策具有类似的好处：当沟通障碍较低并减少接触传染病时，每个人都会受益。
Some Externalities are positive. Consider communications technology like the internet or telephone network: each additional user of the system makes the network as a whole more valuable, creating a “network effect” that benefits every user of the system. Societal policies like widespread literacy and public-health practices (like handwashing and vaccination) have similar benefits: everyone benefits when there are lower barriers to communication and reduced exposure to infectious disease.
外部性有时很难提前预测，但这并不意味着您不应该尝试。你的行为的好处和坏处都是真实存在的，充分利用意想不到的机会并防止不必要的问题符合每个人的最佳利益。
Externalities are sometimes difficult to predict in advance, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try. The benefits and detriments of your actions are real, and it’s in everyone’s best interest to take full advantage of unexpected opportunities and prevent unnecessary issues.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/externality/
正常事故
Normal Accidents
问题不在于有问题。问题是期待不同，并认为有问题就是问题。
The problem is not that there are problems. The problem is expecting otherwise and thinking that having problems is a problem.
——西奥多·鲁宾，精神病学家和专栏作家
—THEODORE RUBIN, PSYCHIATRIST AND COLUMNIST
航天飞机——一种能够载人离开地球引力范围的飞行器——是一个复杂系统的缩影。
The space shuttle—a vehicle capable of exiting the bounds of Earth’s gravity with human travelers aboard—is the epitome of a complex system.
一架高度工程化的飞机绑在三枚装有数百万立方英尺爆炸性氢气的火箭上，也是高度相互依存系统的缩影。任何错误都有可能波及系统的其余部分，每次发射航天飞机时，都会有数百万的事情出错。
A highly engineered airplane strapped to three rockets holding millions of cubic feet of explosive hydrogen gas is also the epitome of a highly Interdependent system. Any error has the chance of cascading through the rest of the system, and every time the shuttle is launched, millions of things could go wrong.
1986 年，挑战者号航天飞机遭遇了一场灾难——其中一枚火箭的密封件冻结，变脆。当密封件在起飞过程中过热时，它失效了。挑战者号在升空 73 秒后爆炸，机上所有人遇难。
In 1986, the space shuttle Challenger suffered a catastrophe—a seal in one of the rockets froze, becoming brittle. When the seal was superheated during takeoff, it failed. Challenger exploded seventy-three seconds after lift-off, killing everyone aboard.
人们很容易相信可以创建一个不会出错的系统。现实生活中的系统总是证明并非如此——相信它。
It’s tempting to believe that it’s possible to create a system in which nothing ever goes wrong. Real-life systems always prove otherwise—count on it.
正常事故理论是表达普遍谚语的一种更正式的方式：狗屎发生了。在紧密耦合的系统中，小风险累积到错误和事故不可避免的地步。系统越大越复杂，最终出现非常非常错误的可能性就越大。
The theory of Normal Accidents is a more formal way of expressing a universal proverb: shit happens. In a tightly coupled system, small risks accumulate to the point where errors and accidents are inevitable. The larger and more complex the system, the higher the likelihood that something will eventually go very, very wrong.
对正常事故反应过度会适得其反。当出现问题时，我们的本能反应是变得过于敏感，将事情锁定并添加更多控制以防止不幸事件再次发生。这种反应使事情变得更糟：锁定事物并添加更多系统只会使系统更加紧密地耦合，增加未来发生事故的风险。
Overreacting to Normal Accidents is counterproductive. When something goes wrong, our instinctive response is to become hypersensitive, locking things down and adding more controls to prevent the unfortunate event from happening again. This response makes things worse: locking things down and adding more systems only makes the system more tightly coupled, increasing the risk of future accidents.
NASA 对挑战者号悲剧的回应具有启发性：NASA 工程师没有关闭或添加更多可能使问题复杂化的系统，而是认识到了固有风险，并专注于寻找其他解决方案来解决问题，以最大限度地降低问题再次发生的风险，而无需添加更多可能会失败的系统。
NASA’s response to the Challenger tragedy is instructive: instead of shutting down or adding more systems that could compound the issue, NASA engineers recognized the inherent risk and focused on finding other solutions to the problem that would minimize the risk of the issue reoccurring, without adding more systems that could potentially fail.
避免正常事故的最佳方法是在故障发生时对其进行分析或“关闭呼叫”。与其进入相当于威胁锁定的系统，从长远来看，这可能会造成更大的问题，而是查看未遂事件可以提供对隐藏的相互依赖性的重要洞察。通过分析问题，可以制定应急计划，以防将来发生类似情况。
The best way to avoid Normal Accidents is to analyze breakdowns or “close calls” when they happen. Instead of going into the systems equivalent of Threat Lockdown, which can create even bigger issues in the long term, looking at near misses can provide crucial insight into hidden Interdependencies. By analyzing the issue, it’s possible to construct contingency plans in the event a similar situation happens in the future.
2003 年，哥伦比亚号航天飞机遭遇了另一种灾难：旨在保护航天飞机重返地球大气层的碳纤维隔热罩失效，航天飞机解体。同样，NASA 专注于如何在不使系统耦合得更紧密的情况下防止未来出现此问题。几年后，当发现号航天飞机在起飞时隔热罩受损时，美国宇航局的工程师做好了准备，机组人员安全着陆。
In 2003, the space shuttle Columbia suffered a catastrophe of a different sort: the carbon-fiber heat shields designed to protect the shuttle as it reentered Earth’s atmosphere failed, and the shuttle disintegrated. Again, NASA focused on how to prevent the issue in the future without making the system even more tightly coupled. When the space shuttle Discovery suffered damage to its heat shields on takeoff a few years later, NASA engineers were prepared, and the crew landed safely.
正常事故是让您所依赖的系统尽可能松散耦合的一个令人信服的理由。对于系统来说有很多积极的事情要说，但期望零故障在极端情况下是不现实的。松散耦合的系统可能效率不高，但它们持续时间更长并且灾难性故障更少。
Normal Accidents are a compelling reason to keep the systems you rely on as loosely coupled as you can. There are many positive things to be said for systems, but expecting zero failures is unrealistic in the extreme. Loosely coupled systems may not be as efficient, but they last longer and fail less catastrophically.
系统越复杂，运行时间越长，发生重大故障的可能性就越大。这不是会不会的问题——而是何时的问题。注意系统故障并准备好快速响应。
The more complex a system is and the longer it operates, the more likely it is to suffer a major failure. It’s not a matter of if—it’s a matter of when. Be watchful for system failure and be prepared to respond to it quickly.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/normal-accidents/
10
10
分析系统
ANALYZING SYSTEMS
如果你不能理解它，你就无法改变它。
If you can’t understand it, you can’t change it.
—埃里克·埃文斯，技术专家
—ERIC EVANS, TECHNOLOGIST
在改进系统之前，您必须了解它当前的运行情况。这很棘手——在仔细测量的同时，不可能让世界停止多长时间。
Before you can improve a system, you must understand how well it’s currently operating. That’s tricky—it’s not possible to stop the world for however long you want while you take careful measurements.
必须在系统运行时对其进行分析。分析运行中的系统很困难，但绝对有可能——如果你知道要寻找什么。
Systems must be analyzed as they’re working. Analyzing a system in operation is difficult, but definitely possible—if you know what to look for.
在本章中，您将学习如何将系统解构为您可以理解的更小的部分，衡量重要的部分，并发现系统的各个部分如何相互作用并相互依赖以发挥作用。
In this chapter, you’ll learn how to Deconstruct systems into smaller parts you can understand, measure what’s important, and discover how parts of the system interact with and depend on one another to function.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/analyzing-systems/
解构主义
Deconstruction
没有什么是完美的。每个过程都涉及分解某些东西。
Out of perfection nothing can be made. Every process involves breaking something up.
——约瑟夫·坎贝尔，神话学家和《千面英雄》的作者
—JOSEPH CAMPBELL, MYTHOLOGIST AND AUTHOR OF THE HERO WITH A THOUSAND FACES
正如我们已经讨论过的，复杂系统由许多相互依赖的流、存量、流程和部分组成。作为一个整体，系统可能太复杂而无法一次全部接受——如果有超过七八个的话变量或依赖关系，认知范围限制开始出现，混乱接管。
Complex systems, as we’ve already discussed, are made up of many interdependent Flows, Stocks, processes, and parts. As a whole, the system may be too complex to take in all at once—if there are more than seven or eight variables or dependencies, Cognitive Scope Limitation kicks in and confusion takes over.
如果那是真的，那么谁能分析复杂的系统呢？
If that’s true, how can anyone analyze complex systems?
解构是将复杂系统分解为尽可能小的子系统以了解事物运作方式的过程。您不是试图一下子理解整个系统，而是将系统分解成多个部分，然后努力理解子系统以及它们如何相互作用。
Deconstruction is the process of separating complex systems into the smallest possible subsystems in order to understand how things work. Instead of trying to understand the system all at once, you break up the system into parts, then work on understanding the subsystems and how they interact with one another.
解构是高尔定律的逆向工程方面。请记住：有效的复杂系统是从同样有效的更简单的系统演变而来的。如果您可以识别更简单的子系统并专注于了解它们的工作方式以及它们如何组合在一起，您最终可以了解整个系统的工作方式。
Deconstruction is the reverse-engineering aspect of Gall’s Law. Remember: complex systems that work evolved from simpler systems that also worked. If you can identify simpler subsystems and focus on understanding how they work and how they fit together, you can eventually understand how the entire system works.
如果您对汽车的工作原理一无所知，打开汽车引擎盖检查里面的东西是一种混淆练习——零件太多，很难知道从哪里开始。然而，了解系统并非不可能：识别发动机、变速箱和散热器等重要子系统可以让您深入了解整个系统的运作方式。
If you know nothing about how cars work, popping the hood of your vehicle and examining the contents is an exercise in confusion—there are so many parts that it’s hard to know where to begin. Understanding the system is not impossible, however: identifying important subsystems like the engine, transmission, and radiator can give you valuable insight into how the entire system functions.
一旦您确定了重要的子系统，将它们在您的脑海中分离出来可以帮助您了解它们的工作原理。您暂时没有将注意力集中在整辆车的工作原理上，而是将注意力集中在发动机上。子系统从哪里开始？涉及哪些流程？系统内部发生了哪些过程？是否涉及反馈循环？如果没有流入会发生什么？系统在哪里结束？什么是流出？
Once you’ve identified important subsystems, isolating them in your mind can help you understand how they work. Instead of focusing on how the entire car works, you narrow your focus to the engine for a while. Where does the subsystem begin? What Flows are involved? What processes take place inside the system? Are there Feedback Loops involved? What happens if inflows don’t come in? Where does the system end? What are the outflows?
在使用隔离解构系统时不要忽视相互依赖性，这一点很重要，因为每个子系统都是更大系统的一部分。识别触发器和端点——与其他子系统交互的系统部分——同样重要。触发器告诉您是什么让子系统开始运行，端点告诉您是什么让系统停止。
It’s important not to lose sight of Interdependence when using isolation to Deconstruct a system, since each subsystem is part of a larger system. Identifying triggers and endpoints—the parts of the system that interact with other subsystems—is just as important. Triggers teach you what makes a subsystem start operating, and endpoints show you what makes the system stop.
此外，了解系统中存在的条件也很重要——如果-那么或当-那么关系会影响系统的运行。例如，发动机需要流入汽油蒸汽才能运行。如果存在流入，火花塞的火花会点燃它，提供推动活塞的能量，为系统的其余部分提供动力。如果没有流入或火花塞不产生火花，则能量消失，系统停止，使汽油蒸汽的流入和火花塞产生的火花成为系统运行的条件。
In addition, it’s important to understand the conditionals present in a system—if-then or when-then relationships that influence the operation of the system. For example, an engine requires an inflow of gasoline vapor to operate. If that inflow is present, a spark from the spark plug ignites it, providing energy that pushes a piston that powers the rest of the system. If that inflow is absent or a spark doesn’t come from the spark plug, the energy is absent and the system stops, making both the inflow of gasoline vapor and the spark from the spark plug conditions of the system’s operation.
创建图表和流程图可以帮助您了解每个流入、过程、触发器、条件、端点和流出是如何组合在一起的。仅用文字解释复杂系统可能会受到限制——为了获得最佳结果，请绘制所涉及的流、存量、条件和过程的图表。构造良好的流程图可以帮助您了解系统运行时的流程，这对帮助您在出现故障时修复系统大有帮助。1个
Creating diagrams and flowcharts can help you understand how each inflow, process, trigger, conditional, endpoint, and outflow comes together. Explaining complex systems in words alone can be limiting—for best results, draw diagrams of the Flows, Stocks, conditionals, and processes involved. Well-constructed flowcharts can help you understand the Flows of a system as it operates, which can go a long way toward helping you fix the system when things break down.1
要分析系统，将复杂系统解构为更容易理解的子系统，然后从头开始构建您对系统的理解。
To analyze a system, Deconstruct complex systems into subsystems that are easier to understand, then build your understanding of the system from the ground up.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/deconstruction/
测量
Measurement
我们相信上帝。. . 所有其他人都带来数据。
In God we trust . . . all others bring data.
-W。EDWARDS DEMING，生产管理专家和统计过程控制的先驱
—W. EDWARDS DEMING, PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT EXPERT AND PIONEER OF STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL
一旦您了解了系统的各个部分以及它们如何相互交互，就需要问另一个问题：系统运行情况如何？为此，我们依赖于在系统运行时对其进行测量。
Once you’ve understood the parts of the system and how they interact with one another, it pays to ask another question: How well is the system operating? To do that, we rely on measuring the system as it’s operating.
测量是在系统运行时收集数据的过程。通过收集与系统核心功能相关的信息，可以更容易地了解系统本身的性能。
Measurement is the process of collecting data as the system is operating. By collecting information related to the core functions of the system, it’s much easier to understand how well the system itself is performing.
测量还允许系统相互比较。例如，可以使用几种不同类型的微处理器来构建一台计算机——您应该使用哪一种？通过测量每个处理器的各种特性（循环时间、功耗、发热量等），可以为您的计算机选择最佳处理器，从而获得更好的性能。
Measurement also allows systems to be compared with one another. For example, it’s possible to use several different types of microprocessors to build a computer—which one should you use? By measuring various characteristics of each processor—cycle time, power consumption, heat generation, etc.—it’s possible to choose the best processor for your computer, resulting in better performance.
测量有助于我们在分析系统时避免缺席盲目。请记住：我们很难看到不存在的事物。测量运行中系统的不同部分有助于在潜在问题出现之前识别它们。
Measurement helps us avoid Absence Blindness when analyzing a system. Remember: we have a hard time seeing things that aren’t present. Measuring different parts of a system in operation helps to identify potential issues before they arise.
例如，糖尿病是一种代表控制人体血糖水平的反馈回路出现故障的病症。过多或过少的血糖都会危及生命，因此如果身体产生过多或过少的胰岛素以保持血糖水平稳定，那就是一个主要问题。
For example, diabetes is a condition that represents a fault in the Feedback Loop that controls the body’s blood glucose levels. Too much or too little blood glucose is life threatening, so if the body produces too much or too little insulin to keep blood glucose levels stable, that’s a major issue.
尽管胰岛素水平对糖尿病患者至关重要，但您无法仅通过观察来了解一个人的胰岛素或血糖水平。在没有测量的情况下，缺席失明是规则，直到情况变得严重到可以看到为止，这表现为人昏倒或休克。
Even though insulin levels are critical to a person with diabetes, you can’t figure out a person’s insulin or blood glucose level just by looking at them. Without measurement, Absence Blindness is the rule until the condition becomes bad enough to become visible, which takes the form of the person passing out or going into shock.
为了避免这种情况，糖尿病患者养成了全天测量血糖和胰岛素水平的习惯。
To avoid this situation, people with diabetes make a habit of measuring their blood glucose and insulin levels throughout the day.
衡量某事是改进它的第一步。用彼得·德鲁克 (Peter Drucker) 不朽的名言来说，“得到衡量的东西得到管理。” 这是真的。如果您不知道您的企业收了多少钱或花了多少钱，就很难知道您对业务系统所做的任何更改是否是一种改进。
Measuring something is the first step to improving it. In the immortal words of Peter Drucker, “What gets measured gets managed.” It’s true. If you don’t know how much money your business is collecting or spending, it’s difficult to know whether or not any change you make to your business system is an improvement.
没有数据，你就是瞎子。如果你想改进任何东西，你必须先测量它。
Without data, you’re blind. If you want to improve anything, you must measure it first.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/measurement/
关键绩效指标
Key Performance Indicators
最好对正确的问题有一个大概的答案，而不是对错误的问题有一个准确的答案。
It is better to have an approximate answer to the right question than an exact answer to the wrong question.
——约翰·图基，统计学家
—JOHN TUKEY, STATISTICIAN
这是测量的主要问题：您可以测量一百万种不同的东西。测量太多，您将遭受认知范围限制，淹没在无意义数据的海洋中。
Here’s the primary problem with Measurement: you can measure a million different things. Measure too much and you’ll suffer from Cognitive Scope Limitation, drowning in a sea of meaningless data.
有些度量比其他度量更重要：关键绩效指标 (KPI)是对系统关键部分的度量。不能帮助您改进系统的测量比毫无价值更糟糕：它们是在浪费您有限的注意力和精力。如果您的目的是改进您正在检查的系统，则不必关注所有事情——只需关注几个重要的关键测量值。
Some Measurements are more important than others: Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are Measurements of the critical parts of a system. Measurements that don’t help you make improvements to your system are worse than worthless: they’re a waste of your limited Attention and energy. If your intent is to improve the system you’re examining, you don’t have to pay Attention to everything—just a few key Measurements that matter.
人们很容易将注意力集中在易于衡量的事物上，而不是重要的事物上。以企业的收入为例——似乎很重要，对吧？确实如此，但仅在一定程度上：收入之所以重要，只是因为它是利润的关键组成部分。如果您花费了 2,000,000 美元来收取收入，那么您是否收取了 1,000,000 美元的收入并不重要。正如 BBC 热播系列节目《龙穴》的主持人西奥·帕菲蒂斯 (Theo Paphitis)所说：“利润就是理智。营业额是虚荣心。” 单独而言，收入不是 KPI。
It’s easy to fixate on things that are easy to measure instead of things that are important. Take, for example, a business’s revenue—seems pretty important, right? It is, but only to a point: revenue is important only because it’s a key component of profit. It doesn’t matter if you collected $1,000,000 in revenue if you spent $2,000,000 to collect it. As Theo Paphitis, a serial entrepreneur and host of the hit BBC series Dragons’ Den, put it: “Profit is sanity. Turnover is vanity.” Alone, revenue is not a KPI.
其他过程中的测量也是如此。例如，如果您正在管理一个程序员团队，您很可能会以“代码行数”来衡量他们的产出——一种可见的、易于收集的衡量标准。这就是问题所在：代码越多不一定越好。有才华的程序员可以通过使用更少的代码行重写程序来使程序变得更好。如果你专注于数量，删除一万行看起来像是一个挫折，即使它是一个巨大的改进。
The same thing goes for other in-process Measurements. For example, if you’re managing a team of programmers, it’s tempting to measure their output in “lines of code”—a visible, easy-to-collect measure. Here’s the problem: more code is not necessarily better. A talented programmer can make a program better by rewriting it using fewer lines of code. If you fixate on quantity, removing ten thousand lines looks like a setback, even if it’s a huge improvement.
如果你根据代码行来奖励程序员，情况会变得更糟：激励引起的偏见将确保你的代码看起来像战争与和平的编程等价物。
The situation gets even worse if you reward programmers based on lines of code: Incentive-Caused Bias will ensure that your code looks like the programming equivalent of War and Peace.
与业务相关的 KPI 通常与每个业务的五个部分或吞吐量相关。以下是我用来确定企业 KPI 的几个问题：
Business-related KPIs are often related to either the Five Parts of Every Business or Throughput. Here are a few questions I use to identify a business’s KPIs:
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价值创造： 系统创造价值的速度有多快？目前的流入水平如何？
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Value Creation: How fast is the system creating value? What is the current level of inflows?
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营销： 有多少人关注您的报价？有多少潜在客户允许您提供更多信息？
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Marketing: How many people are paying Attention to your offer? How many prospects are giving you Permission to provide more information?
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销售： 有多少潜在客户正在成为付费客户？普通客户的终生价值是多少？
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Sales: How many prospects are becoming paying customers? What is the average customer’s Lifetime Value?
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价值交付： 您能以多快的速度为每位客户提供服务？您目前的退货或投诉率是多少？
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Value Delivery: How fast can you serve each customer? What is your current rate of returns or complaints?
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财务： 您的利润率是多少？你有多少购买力？你经济充足吗？
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Finance: What is your Profit Margin? How much Purchasing Power do you have? Are you financially Sufficient?
与这些问题相关的任何度量都可能是 KPI。与核心业务流程或系统的吞吐量无关的任何事情都可能不是。
Any Measurements related to these questions are probably KPIs. Anything that’s not related to a core business process or a system’s Throughput is probably not.
尝试将自己限制在每个系统只有三到五个 KPI。收集测量数据时，很容易为自己构建一个“仪表板”，其中包含您想要查看的每条信息。抵制诱惑：如果你让自己承受太多数据，你将不太可能看到有意义和重要的变化。如有必要，您始终可以更深入地挖掘可用的数据。
Try to limit yourself to only three to five KPIs per system. When collecting Measurements, it’s tempting to build yourself a “dashboard” that contains every piece of information you’d ever want to see. Resist the temptation: if you overload yourself with too much data, you’ll be far less likely to see Changes that are meaningful and important. You can always dig deeper into the data at your disposal if necessary.
找到您系统的 KPI，您将能够管理您的系统，而不会淹没在数据中。
Find your system’s KPIs and you’ll be able to manage your system without drowning in data.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/key-performance-indicator/
垃圾进垃圾出
Garbage In, Garbage Out
让我们注意我们的开端，结果将自行解决。
Let us watch well our beginnings, and results will manage themselves.
—亚历山大·克拉克，十九世纪美国大使和民权活动家
—ALEXANDER CLARK, NINETEENTH-CENTURY US AMBASSADOR AND CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVIST
如果您分析质量低劣的数据，那么所得到的分析充其量是毫无价值的，而在最坏的情况下会产生误导或造成损害。
If you analyze poor-quality data, the resulting analysis will be worthless at best, and misleading or damaging at worst.
您使用的输入质量始终会影响输出质量。如果你用劣质材料建造一个物体，那个物体将没有吸引力和不可靠。如果你吃很多垃圾食品，不经常走动，关注太多新闻和真人秀，你会感到无精打采而不是精力充沛。如果从事项目的人员不熟练或不兴奋，最终结果将受到影响。
The quality of the input you use always has an impact on the quality of the output. If you build an object from poor-quality materials, that object will be unattractive and unreliable. If you eat a lot of junk food, don’t move around much, and pay attention to too much news and reality TV, you’ll feel lethargic instead of energetic. If the people working on a project aren’t skilled or excited, the end result will suffer.
Garbage In, Garbage Out是一个直截了当的原则：将无用的输入放入系统中，你将得到无用的输出。您理解系统的能力取决于您观察该系统中正在发生的事情的能力。您收集的有关系统的数据的质量和数量代表了您能够在多大程度上理解系统运行时发生的事情的上限。
Garbage In, Garbage Out is a straightforward principle: put useless input into a system, and you’ll get useless output. Your ability to understand a system relies on your ability to observe what’s going on in that system. The quality and quantity of the data you collect about the system represents an upper limit to how well you’ll be able to understand what’s happening in the system as it’s operating.
如果你完成后不想要垃圾，那么就不要使用垃圾从你开始。注意您的起点可以帮助您确保流程的最终结果符合您的期望。
If you don’t want garbage when you’re done, don’t use garbage when you begin. Being mindful of what you’re starting with can help you ensure that the end result of the process meets your expectations.
要改善您的结果，请提高您开始时的质量。
To improve your results, improve the quality of what you start with.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/garbage-in-garbage-out/
宽容
Tolerance
智慧之路？好吧，这很简单/也很容易表达：/ Err / and err / and err again, / but less / and less / and less。
The road to wisdom? Well, it’s plain / And simple to express: / Err / and err / and err again, / but less / and less / and less.
——皮特·海因，数学家和诗人
—PIET HEIN, MATHEMATICIAN AND POET
许多没有经验的商人期望完美：任何类型的错误或差异，无论多么小，都值得关注。
Many inexperienced businesspeople expect perfection: any sort of mistake or variance, however small, is a cause for concern.
以企业网站为例。当他们的网站出现故障时，大多数商人都惊呆了，这种情况会促使相关人员致电系统管理员或责任方。通常会说“确保我们的网站永不宕机”这句话。
Take, for example, a business’s website. Most businesspeople are aghast when their website goes down, an event that prompts concerned calls to the system administrator or responsible party. Often the words “Make sure our website never goes down” are spoken.
这是不现实的：100% 的可靠性是不可能的。正常事故是生活中不可或缺的事实，因此在计划中考虑到这些事故是值得的。您需要的可靠性越高，系统的成本就越高。
That’s not realistic: 100 percent reliability is impossible. Normal Accidents are a fact of life, so it pays to account for them in planning. The more reliability you need, the more your system is going to cost.
容差是系统中可接受的“正常”错误级别。在给定的测量范围内，系统按预期运行。只要错误不超过某个阈值，就不需要紧急干预。
A Tolerance is an acceptable level of “normal” error in a system. Within a given range of measurements, the system is performing as intended. As long as the errors don’t exceed a certain threshold, urgent intervention is not required.
公差通常被称为“紧”或“松”。严格的公差是指几乎没有错误或可变性的余地，如果组件或子系统对系统性能至关重要，则这种情况很常见。宽松的公差允许很大的错误或可变性空间，并且在小错误不会产生重大影响时很常见。
Tolerances are often referred to as being “tight” or “loose.” A tight Tolerance is one in which there’s little room for error or variability, which is common if the component or subsystem is critical to the performance of the system. A loose Tolerance allows significant room for error or variability and is common when small mistakes produce no major repercussions.
系统的可靠性通常以百分比来衡量。当系统在给定区域的可靠性达到 95% 时，它会在二十次中的十九次中产生在预期公差范围内的结果。可靠性越高，百分比越高。
The reliability of a system is often measured in terms of a percentage. When a system is 95 percent reliable in a given area, it will produce a result within the intended Tolerances nineteen out of twenty times. The higher the reliability, the higher the percentage.
当您听到有人谈论“五个九”的可靠性时，这意味着系统会在 99.999% 的时间内产生预期的结果。这种可靠性水平令人印象深刻，而且实现起来往往代价高昂。公司使用这种可靠性度量作为容忍度，他们编写了一份称为“服务水平协议”(SLA) 的合同，承诺如果错误超过某个阈值，将对客户进行补偿。
When you hear someone talk about “five nines” reliability, that means the system produces the intended result 99.999 percent of the time. This level of reliability is impressive, and often expensive to achieve. Companies use this reliability measurement as a Tolerance, and they write a contract called a “Service Level Agreement” (SLA) that promises to compensate customers if errors exceed a certain threshold.
紧公差非常有用，是质量的积极指标：毕竟，您不希望出现错误或变化。随着时间的推移，努力为系统的关键部分实现更严格的公差。
Tight Tolerances are very useful and a positive indicator of quality: after all, you don’t want mistakes or variations. Work to achieve tighter Tolerances for the critical parts of your system over time.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/tolerance/
方差
Variance
记住事情过去和消失的速度有多快——那些现在的和那些即将到来的。存在像河流一样从我们身边流过：“什么”在不断变化，“为什么”有千变万化。没有什么是稳定的，即使是这里的东西。
Keep in mind how fast things pass by and are gone—those that are now and those to come. Existence flows past us like a river: the “what” is in constant flux, the “why” has a thousand variations. Nothing is stable, not even what’s right here.
——马尔库斯·奥勒留，公元前 2 世纪的哲学家和罗马皇帝
—MARCUS AURELIUS, SECOND-CENTURY-BCE PHILOSOPHER AND EMPEROR OF ROME
随机波动的度量通常难以分析。单位销售数据就是一个很好的例子：如果您周一售出 3,017 件，周二售出 2,967 件，周三售出 3,142 件，您如何估计“正常”日销售额？更具挑战性的是：如果您的销售额每天随机增加或减少，您如何判断新的营销或销售策略是否有效？
Measures that fluctuate at random are often difficult to analyze. Unit sales figures are a good example: If you sell 3,017 units on Monday, 2,967 on Tuesday, and 3,142 units on Wednesday, how do you estimate your “normal” daily sales? Even more challenging: if your sales increase or decrease at random each day, how can you tell if a new marketing or sales strategy is working?
方差是测量值或数据集的波动程度。典型性度量，如均值或中位数，是一个自然的起点，但它们无法捕捉您可能遇到的波动范围。如果不确定正常波动的程度，您就无法做出正确的决定。
Variance is the degree of fluctuation in a measure or set of data. Measures of Typicality, like means or medians, are a natural place to start, but they don’t capture the range of fluctuations you’re likely to experience. Without establishing the degree of normal fluctuation, you’re not equipped to make good decisions.
Donald J. Wheeler 博士在Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos中描述了一种称为“统计过程控制”的方法，该方法使方差分析成为可能。从平均值或中位数开始，可以量化数据集中存在的波动大小。这为您提供了一个典型值、一个正常值上限和一个正常值下限：一系列预期正常值。
In Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos, Dr. Donald J. Wheeler describes an approach called “statistical process control” that makes analysis of Variance possible. Starting with a mean or median, it’s possible to quantify the size of the fluctuations present in the data set. This gives you a typical value, an upper normal boundary, and a lower normal boundary: a range of expected normal values.
一旦确定了上限和下限，您就可以更好地做出决定。突破上限的数据点或下限具有统计显着性，就像一系列接近边界的连续数据点一样。回到每日销售数字示例：如果您的正常上限是每天 3,500 件，那么值得研究 4,000 件的销售日，看看是什么导致了这一结果。同样，如果您连续五天超过 3,500 个单位，则表明您应该继续投资于您的新营销计划：它正在发挥作用。
Once you’ve established an upper and lower bound, you’re in a much better position to make decisions. Data points that break the upper bound or lower bound are statistically significant, as are a series of consecutive data points that are close to the boundary. Returning to the daily sales figure example: if your normal upper bound is 3,500 units per day, it’s worth looking into a 4,000-unit sales day to see what led to that result. Likewise, if you have five consecutive days that exceed 3,500 units, that indicates you should keep investing in your new marketing plan: it’s working.
当您无法直接访问或查看所有输入和输出时，方差度量有助于识别机会或问题。缺陷率就是一个很好的例子：如果您销售产品，您将无法测试每个单元，并且抽样可能无法发现使用中出现的问题。如果您跟踪客户支持请求、退货请求和保修请求的差异，您可以在发现增加超过正常差异时立即采取行动。
Measures of Variance are helpful in identifying opportunities or problems when you don’t have direct access to or visibility of all of the inputs and outputs. Defect rates are a good example: if you sell a Product, you won’t be able to test every unit, and Sampling may not catch problems that occur in use. If you track the Variance of your customer-support requests, return requests, and warranty requests, you can take immediate action if you see an increase that exceeds normal variation.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/variance/
诚实分析
Analytical Honesty
能被真相摧毁的就应该是。
That which can be destroyed by the truth should be.
—PC HODGELL，教授和小说家
—P. C. HODGELL, PROFESSOR AND NOVELIST
我在宝洁公司的最后一个职位涉及制定在线营销衡量策略：找出衡量宝洁网络广告有效性的方法。宝洁每年在横幅广告、搜索引擎广告和在线视频投放上花费数百万美元。我的工作是弄清楚这项投资是否值得。
My last position at Procter & Gamble involved creating an online marketing Measurement strategy: figuring out a way to measure the effectiveness of P&G’s advertising on the web. P&G spent millions of dollars every year on banner ads, search-engine advertising, and online video placements. My job was to figure out if the investment was worth it.
我的团队在汇总我们的建议时发现的一件事令人不安：我们在大多数网站上使用的衡量唯一身份访问者的系统是错误的。该系统没有计算人类访客，而是将自动搜索引擎软件机器人的访问也视为“访客”，即使他们不是人。计算机程序不关心（也永远不会购买）洗衣粉和洗发水，但系统将它们计为潜在客户。
One of the things my team discovered while putting together our recommendations was disturbing: the system we were using on most of our websites to measure unique visitors was wrong. Instead of counting human visitors, the system was treating visits from automated search-engine software bots as “visitors” as well, even though they weren’t people. Computer programs don’t care about (and will never purchase) laundry detergent and shampoo, but the system was counting them as potential customers.
搜索引擎蜘蛛程序每天多次访问网站以寻找新信息的情况并不少见，因此该系统夸大了访问每个网站的人数。这是一个垃圾输入，垃圾输出的情况，它使我们的测量变得不那么有用了。
It’s not uncommon for search-engine spider programs to visit a website many times a day looking for new information, so the system was overstating how many people were visiting each website by a significant margin. It was a Garbage In, Garbage Out situation, and it made our measurements much less useful.
我的团队建议升级跟踪系统以收集准确的访客数据。业务部门无一例外地下降了。他们知道他们得到的是糟糕的数据，但他们似乎并不在意。很奇怪，对吧？
My team recommended upgrading the tracking system to collect accurate visitor data. Without exception, the business units declined. They knew they were getting crappy data, but they didn’t seem to care. Weird, right?
原因如下：安装新的跟踪系统将使每个网站的唯一访问者衡量指标（被大多数团队视为关键绩效指标）减少一个数量级。即使新系统更准确，安装它也会让团队看起来很糟糕。他们没有纠正问题，而是选择继续生活在谎言中。结果，他们严重损害了提高网站实际性能的能力。
Here’s why: installing the new tracking system would make each website’s unique-visitors measurement—considered a Key Performance Indicator by most teams—decrease by an order of magnitude. Even though the new system was more accurate, installing it would make the team look bad. Instead of correcting the issue, they chose to continue living a lie. As a result, they seriously compromised their ability to improve their website’s actual performance.
分析诚实意味着测量和分析您拥有的数据时没有情绪或偏见。由于人类是社会性动物，我们往往非常关心别人如何看待我们，这给了我们一种自然的动机，让事情看起来比实际情况更好。如果您的目的是让事情变得更好，这种趋势可能会妨碍收集准确数据和进行有用的分析。
Analytical Honesty means measuring and analyzing the data you have without emotion or bias. Since humans are social creatures, we tend to care deeply about how others perceive us, which gives us a natural incentive to make things look better than they are. If your purpose is to make things better, this tendency can get in the way of collecting accurate data and conducting useful analysis.
保持分析诚实的最佳方法是让没有投资于您的系统的人评估您的测量结果。 如果您的社会地位岌岌可危，激励引起的偏见和确认偏见很容易屈服。让经验丰富但冷静的第三方审核您的测量和分析实践是应对这些倾向的巧妙解决方法：您可能不喜欢您听到的内容，但至少您会充分意识到潜在的问题。
The best way to maintain Analytical Honesty is to have your measurements evaluated by someone who isn’t invested in your system. Incentive-Caused Bias and Confirmation Bias are easy to succumb to if your Social Status is on the line. Having an experienced but dispassionate third party audit your measurement and analysis practices is a neat workaround for these tendencies: you might not like what you hear, but at least you’ll be fully aware of potential issues.
不要带着玫瑰色眼镜看你的数据：始终努力对自己诚实，了解数据表明你可以改进的地方。
Don’t look at your data through rose-colored glasses: always strive to be honest with yourself about what the data indicates you can improve.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/analytical-honesty/
语境
Context
如果你不明白某件事，那是因为你没有意识到它的上下文。
If you don’t understand something, it’s because you aren’t aware of its context.
——理查德·拉布金，精神病学家
—RICHARD RABKIN, PSYCHIATRIST
你这个月带来了 200,000 美元的收入。是好还是坏？
You brought in $200,000 of revenue this month. Is that good or bad?
这取决于。如果你上个月赚了 100,000 美元，那就很好了。如果你这个月的开支是 400,000 美元，那就糟糕了。
It depends. If you brought in $100,000 last month, it’s good. If your expenses are $400,000 this month, it’s bad.
上下文是使用相关的测量来提供有关您正在检查的数据的附加信息。在上面的示例中，如果没有其他信息，了解您的月收入并不是很有用。了解上个月的收入和本月的支出提供了必要的上下文，让您更清楚地了解情况。
Context is the use of related Measurements to provide additional information about the data you’re examining. In the example above, knowing your monthly revenue isn’t very useful without additional information. Knowing last month’s revenue and this month’s expenses provides necessary Context, giving you a clearer picture of the situation.
聚合测量几乎不会告诉您任何有用的信息。在进行有形改进时，综合措施毫无价值，因为它们缺乏上下文。知道本月有 200 万人访问了您的网站，这对您没有任何用处。没有 Context，你无法确定Change或 effectiveness，这限制了你改进系统的能力。
Aggregate Measurements almost never tell you anything useful. Aggregate measures are worthless when it comes to making tangible improvements because they lack Context. Knowing two million people visited your website this month tells you nothing useful. Without Context, you can’t determine Change or effectiveness, which limits your ability to improve the system.
在跟踪结果时，尽量避免专注于单个“神奇数字”的诱惑。依靠单个数字听起来像是一种有用的简化，但事实并非如此——删除上下文会使您对数据中的重要变化视而不见。知道您的“总质量得分”或收入上升或下降几个点并不能告诉您它发生的原因、它是否重要，或者它是否是由于随机波动或系统或其环境的重大变化引起的。
Try to avoid the temptation to focus on a single “magic number” when tracking your results. Relying on a single number sounds like a useful simplification, but it’s not—removing Context blinds you to important Changes in the data. Knowing your “total quality score” or that revenue went up or down a few points won’t tell you why it happened, whether or not it’s important, or if it’s due to random fluctuations or a significant Change in the system or its Environment.
作为一般规则，不要孤立地检查任何度量——始终在其他度量的上下文中查看它们。
As a general rule, examine no measure in isolation—always look at them in the Context of other Measurements.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/context/
采样
Sampling
如果你不相信抽样理论，下次你去看医生时，如果他想抽一点血，就告诉他全部抽。
If you don’t believe in sampling theory, next time you go to the doctor and he wants to take a little blood, tell him to take it all.
—GIAN FULGONI，COMSCORE, INC. 联合创始人兼董事长
—GIAN FULGONI, COFOUNDER AND CHAIRMAN OF COMSCORE, INC.
如果您的系统太大或太复杂而无法收集每个流程的数据，您会怎么做？
What do you do if your system is too large or complex to collect data on every process?
有时测量整个系统的流量是不切实际的。如果您正在管理一个可扩展的系统，通常不可能测试每个单元或发现每个错误。当您的系统正在生产数百万个单位或完成数百万个交易时，您如何识别潜在问题？
Sometimes it’s not practical to measure the Flows of an entire system. If you’re managing a scalable system, it’s often not possible to test every unit or find every error. How can you identify potential problems when your system is cranking out millions of units or completing millions of transactions?
抽样是随机抽取总输出的一小部分，然后将其用作整个系统的代理的过程。如果你曾经有过在医生办公室抽血，你就会很清楚抽样的含义。医生或护士抽取少量血液，然后送到实验室进行分析。如果测试显示样本中存在异常，则很可能血液中普遍存在同样的问题。
Sampling is the process of taking at random a small percentage of the total output, then using it as a proxy for the entire system. If you’ve ever had your blood taken at the doctor’s office, you’ll have a good idea of what Sampling entails. The doctor or nurse draws a small amount of blood, which is then sent to a laboratory for analysis. If testing reveals anomalies in the sample, it’s likely that the same issue is present in the bloodstream in general.
抽样可以帮助您识别系统错误，而无需测试系统的所有输出，这可能既耗时又昂贵。如果您正在制造手机，则不必测试每部下线的手机。如果您测试二十分之一的手机，您仍然可以足够快地识别错误，以便在出现问题时修复系统。根据您可接受的错误率，您可以增加或减少采样率。
Sampling can help you identify systemic errors without testing all of the output of the system, which can be time-consuming and expensive. If you’re manufacturing mobile phones, you don’t have to test every single phone that comes off the line. If you test one in twenty phones, you can still identify errors fast enough to fix the system if something goes wrong. Depending on your acceptable error rate, you can increase or decrease the Sampling rate.
随机“抽查”也是抽样的一种形式。许多零售店雇用“秘密购物者”来测试客户服务或销售人员的技能。雇用这些购物者是为了表达对特定商品的兴趣、提出特定问题、退货或以令人讨厌的方式行事。由于员工不知道哪些顾客是真实顾客，哪些顾客不是真实顾客，因此这是商店管理层测试员工的有效方式，而无需每天每一秒都仔细检查他们。
Random “spot checks” are also a form of Sampling. Many retail stores employ “secret shoppers” to test customer service or the skills of their sales staff. These shoppers are hired to express interest in specific items, ask certain questions, make a return, or act in annoying ways. Since the staff doesn’t know which customers are real and which ones are not, it’s an effective way for the management of a store to test their staff without scrutinizing them every second of every day.
如果样本不是随机的或均匀的，则抽样容易产生偏差。例如，通过调查曼哈顿的业主来衡量美国的平均家庭收入，与调查西弗吉尼亚州的业主相比，数据的偏差要大得多。为获得最佳结果，请尽可能使用最大的随机样本。
Sampling is prone to bias if the sample is not random or uniform. For example, measuring the average household income in the United States by surveying property owners in Manhattan will skew the data considerably higher than if you survey property owners in West Virginia. For best results, use the largest random sample you can.
如果您需要测试质量，抽样可以帮助您收集良好的数据，而不会产生巨大的成本，前提是您一直在寻找可能扭曲数据的潜在偏差。
If you need to test for quality, Sampling can help you collect good data without incurring enormous costs, provided you stay on the lookout for potential bias that can skew the data.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/sampling/
误差范围
Margin of Error
每个人都从一个例子中概括出来。至少，我愿意。
Everyone generalizes from one example. At least, I do.
——史蒂文·布鲁斯特，科幻作家
—STEVEN BRUST, SCIENCE-FICTION AUTHOR
假设您从魔术师的商店购买了一枚魔术硬币，并且您希望确保该硬币在大多数情况下都偏向正面。
Suppose you purchase a trick coin from a magician’s shop, and you want to be sure the coin is biased to land on heads most of the time.
你怎么确定你买的不是垃圾？当然，你开始掷硬币。
How can you be sure you didn’t buy a dud? You start flipping the coin, of course.
假设在前五次掷骰中，您得到两个正面和三个反面。你应该要求退款吗？
Let’s assume that in the first five flips, you get two heads and three tails. Should you ask for a refund?
在危及魔术师的好名声之前，确保您的结果是准确的可能是值得的。误差范围是对您从一组给定的观察样本中得出的结论的可信度的估计。
It’s probably worthwhile to make sure your results are accurate before jeopardizing the magician’s good name. Margin of Error is an estimate of how much you can trust your conclusions from a given set of observed Samples.
因为你只抛了五次硬币，所以你不能确定它是坏的：你的样本量非常小。每次抛硬币都会使您的样本量更大。
Since you only flipped the coin five times, you can’t be sure it’s a dud: your sample size is very small. Each coin flip makes your sample size larger.
如果你继续掷硬币一千次，并且有三分之二的时间出现反面，你可以确定硬币是有偏差的，但不是你预期的那样。由于未装硬币应该有一半的时间是正面的，你的大样本量使得魔术师很可能错误地给了你一枚反面装的硬币。
If you go on to flip the coin a thousand times, and it comes up tails two thirds of the time, you can be sure that the coin is biased, but not in the way you expected. Since a nonloaded coin should come up heads half the time, your large sample size makes it likely the magician gave you a tails-loaded coin by mistake.
您制作的每个额外样本都会增加您的可用数据，并有助于确保您观察到的样本集能够代表您正在研究的一般人群。您采集的样本越多，您的误差范围就越小，您对从整体上检查样本得出的结论就越有信心。可以通过增加误差幅度来解决抽样中不可避免的偏差。
Each additional Sample you make increases your available data and helps ensure your set of observed Samples is representative of the general population you’re studying. The more Samples you take, the lower your Margin of Error becomes and the more faith you can have in the conclusions you make from examining the Samples as a whole. Unavoidable biases in Sampling can be accounted for by increasing your Margin of Error.
如何估算误差幅度背后的数学原理超出了本书的范围。一旦掌握了它就很容易，特别是如果您使用电子表格或数据库进行分析。如果您需要计算误差幅度或其他相关估计值，例如“置信区间”或“可信区间”，我建议您阅读 MG Bulmer的《统计原理》以获得深入的入门知识。
The math behind how to estimate Margin of Error is beyond the scope of this book. It’s easy once you get the hang of it, particularly if you use a spreadsheet or database for your analysis. If you need to calculate Margin of Error or other, related estimates, like “confidence intervals” or “credibility intervals,” I recommend picking up Principles of Statistics by M. G. Bulmer for an in-depth primer.
一般来说，谨防基于小样本和/或非代表性样本的误导性结论。每当您看到基于您不熟悉的数据的平均值或概率时，调查样本的大小及其收集方式总是值得的。样本集太小或有偏差会显着影响最终分析。
In general, beware of misleading conclusions based on small and/or nonrepresentative sample sizes. Whenever you’re presented with an average or a probability based on data you’re not familiar with, it always pays to investigate the size of the Sample and how it was collected. Sample sets that are too small or biased can significantly influence the final analysis.
就分析置信度而言，数据越多越好——收集尽可能多的样本。
When it comes to analytical confidence, more data is always better—collect the largest set of Samples you can.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/margin-of-error/
比率
Ratio
拒绝做算术的人注定要胡说八道。
He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense.
—约翰·麦卡锡，计算机和认知科学家
—JOHN MCCARTHY, COMPUTER AND COGNITIVE SCIENTIST
比率是一种将两个测量相互比较的方法。通过将结果除以输入，您可以衡量系统不同部分之间的各种有用关系。
A Ratio is a method of comparing two Measurements against each other. By dividing your results by your input, you can measure all sorts of useful relationships between different parts of your system.
例如，假设每 30 位顾客进入您的商店，其中就有 10 位顾客进行了购买。您的“收盘比率”将是 10 除以 30：1/3。
For example, assume that for every 30 customers who enter your store, 10 of them make a purchase. Your “closing Ratio” would be 10 divided by 30: 1/3.
假设您对销售人员进行技术培训，使进入商店的 30 名顾客中有 15 名付费顾客。您的新收盘比率为 15 除以 30：1/2。
Let’s say you train your sales staff in techniques that result in 15 paying customers out of 30 who enter the store. Your new closing Ratio is 15 divided by 30: 1/2.
百分比是以 100 为基数的比率。您的第一个收盘比率，转换为百分比，是 33%。你的第二个是 50%。
Percentages are Ratios with a base of 100. Your first closing Ratio, converted into a percentage, is 33 percent. Your second would be 50 percent.
这里有一些有用的比率来跟踪：
HERE ARE SOME USEFUL RATIOS TO TRACK:
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促销回报：您在广告上每花费 1 美元，您会获得多少收入？
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Return on Promotion: For every $1 you spend in advertising, how much revenue do you collect?
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人均利润：对于您雇用的每一个人，您的企业产生多少利润？
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Profit per Employee: For every person you employ, how much profit does your business generate?
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成交率：对于您服务的每个潜在客户，有多少购买？
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Closing Ratio: For every prospect you serve, how many purchase?
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退货/投诉率：对于您进行的每笔销售，有多少人选择退货或投诉？
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Returns/Complaints Ratio: For every sale you make, how many choose to return or complain?
财务比率在检查财务报表时非常有帮助。投资回报率、资产回报率、资本回报率、库存周转率和日销售额等比率对于确定企业的健康状况非常有用。有关常见财务比率的完整介绍，我推荐Karen Berman 和 Joe Knight 与 John Case 合着的Financial Intelligence for Entrepreneurs。
Financial Ratios are very helpful when examining financial statements. Ratios like Return on Investment, return on assets, return on capital, inventory turns, and day sales outstanding are very useful in determining the health of a business. For a full introduction to common Financial Ratios, I recommend Financial Intelligence for Entrepreneurs by Karen Berman and Joe Knight with John Case.
随着时间的推移跟踪比率可以提供系统如何变化的方向指示。如果您的收盘比率或投资回报率持续上升，那是一件非常好的事情。如果它随着时间的推移而下降，那么调查找出原因是值得的。
Tracking Ratios over time can provide a directional indication of how a system is changing. If your closing Ratio or Return on Investment keeps going up, that’s a very good thing. If it’s going down over time, it would pay to investigate to find out why.
要有创意：研究您的业务，然后构建突出您系统中最重要部分的比率。
Be creative: study your business, then construct Ratios that highlight the most important parts of your system.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/ratio/
典型性
Typicality
伤害你的不是你不知道的事。你知道事实并非如此。
It ain’t what you don’t know that hurts you. It’s what you know that ain’t so.
——威尔·罗杰斯，美国牛仔和喜剧演员
—WILL ROGERS, AMERICAN COWBOY AND COMEDIAN
阅读《华尔街日报》的人的平均家庭净资产约为 150 万美元。2看来《华尔街日报》的读者很富裕，对吧？
The average household net worth of a person who reads the Wall Street Journal is approximately $1.5 million.2 Seems that Wall Street Journal readers are well off, right?
是的，但比你想象的要少。比尔·盖茨和沃伦·巴菲特阅读了《华尔街日报》，他们的财富以数十亿计——远远超过了最顶尖的 0.01% 的商业专业人士。像盖茨和巴菲特这样的超高净值高管使平均水平的偏差比其他情况下要高得多。如果你依靠平均值来告诉你典型的《华尔街日报》读者值多少钱，那你就错了。
Yes, but less than you might think. Bill Gates and Warren Buffett read the Wall Street Journal, and their wealth is measured in the billions—significantly more than even the top .01 percent of business professionals. Ultra-high-net-worth executives like Gates and Buffett skew the average much higher than it would be otherwise. If you’re relying on the average to tell you how much the typical Wall Street Journal reader is worth, you’re making a mistake.
许多形式的分析都依赖于定义典型性：为某些重要测量确定正常值或典型值。计算典型值的常用方法有四种：均值、中值、众数和中值。
Many forms of analysis rely on defining Typicality: identifying a normal or typical value for some important measurement. There are four common methods of calculating a typical value: mean, median, mode, and midrange.
平均值（或平均值）的计算方法是将所有数据点的数量相加，然后除以可用数据点的总数。平均数很容易计算，但容易出现盖茨和巴菲特综合症：异常值的存在使平均数偏高或偏低而无法代表。（然而，排除异常值，平均值会变得更准确。）
A mean (or average) is calculated by adding the quantities of all data points, then dividing by the total number of data points available. Averages are simple to calculate but are prone to Gates and Buffett syndrome: the presence of outliers that skew the average too high or low to be representative. (Exclude the outliers, however, and the average becomes more accurate.)
中位数是通过按从高到低的顺序对值进行排序，然后找到范围中间的数据点的数量来计算的。中位数是一种称为百分位数的特定分析形式：中位数是表示第 50 个百分位数的值。根据定义，集合中 50% 的值将低于中值。计算中位数和将它与平均值进行比较可以告诉您平均值是否受到一些重量级击球手的影响。
A median is calculated by sorting the values in order of high to low, then finding the quantity of the data point in the middle of the range. Medians are a specific form of analysis called a percentile: the median is the value that expresses the fiftieth percentile. By definition, 50 percent of the values in the set will be below the median. Calculating the median and comparing it to the mean can tell you if the average is being influenced by a few heavy hitters.
众数是一组数据中出现频率最高的值。模式对于查找数据集群很有用——一个集合可以有多种模式，这可以提醒您注意生成该数据的系统中潜在有趣的相互依赖性。
A mode is the value that occurs most frequently in a set of data. Modes are useful for finding clusters of data—a set can have multiple modes, which can alert you to potentially interesting Interdependencies in the system that produced that data.
中值是一组值中最高和最低数据点之间的中间值。要计算中间值，请将最高值和最低值相加，然后除以二。中值最适合用于快速估算——它们速度很快，您只需要知道两个数据点，但它们可能会因异常高或低的异常值而发生偏差，例如比尔盖茨的银行余额。
A midrange is the value halfway between the highest and lowest data points in a set of values. To calculate the midrange, add the highest and lowest values, then divide by two. Midranges are best used for quick estimates—they’re fast, and you only need to know two data points, but they can be skewed by outliers that are abnormally high or low, like Bill Gates’s bank balance.
均值、中位数、众数和中值是有用的分析工具，可以指示典型结果——前提是您足够小心，使用正确的工具来完成工作。
Means, medians, modes, and midranges are useful analytical tools that can indicate typical results—provided you’re careful enough to use the right tool for the job.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/typicality/
相关性和因果关系
Correlation and Causation
相关性不是因果关系，但它确实是一个提示。
Correlation isn’t causation, but it sure is a hint.
—EDWARD TUFTE，统计学家和信息设计专家
—EDWARD TUFTE, STATISTICIAN AND INFORMATION DESIGN EXPERT
想象一张台球桌：如果知道每个球在台面上的确切位置以及母球所受力的详细信息（冲击矢量、冲击力、冲击位置、台面摩擦力和空气阻力），则可以计算母球将如何行进以及它将如何影响沿途击中的其他球。职业台球运动员非常擅长对这些关系进行心理模拟，以至于他们可以毫不费力地打通整张台球。
Imagine a billiards table: if you know the exact position of every ball on the table and the details of the forces applied to the cue ball (impact vector, impact force, location of impact, table friction, and air resistance), you can calculate how the cue ball will travel and how it will affect other balls it hits along the way. Professional billiards players are skilled at creating a Mental Simulation of these relationships so well that they can clear entire tables with little effort.
这就是因果关系：完整的因果链。由于可以计算完整的因果关系链，您可以说击打母球导致球落入角袋。如果你在同样的情况下以同样的方式再次击中提示，你每次都会得到同样的结果。
That’s Causation: a complete chain of cause and effect. Since it’s possible to calculate a complete chain of causality, you can say that striking the cue ball caused a ball to fall into the corner pocket. If you hit the cue again in the same way in the same situation, you’ll get the same result every single time.
这是另一个思想实验，使用假设数据：患有心脏病的人平均每年要吃 57 个培根双层芝士汉堡。吃培根双层芝士汉堡会导致心脏病发作吗？不必要。如果心脏病发作的人一年洗 365 次澡，每年眨眼 560 万次，那么洗澡和眨眼会导致心脏病发作吗？
Here’s another Thought Experiment, using hypothetical data: people who suffer heart attacks eat, on average, 57 bacon double cheeseburgers every year. Does eating bacon double cheeseburgers cause heart attacks? Not necessarily. If people who suffer heart attacks take 365 showers a year and blink their eyes 5.6 million times a year, does taking showers and blinking your eyes cause heart attacks?
相关性不是因果关系。即使您注意到一个测量值与另一个测量值相关联，也不能证明一件事导致了另一件事。
Correlation is not Causation. Even if you notice that one measurement is associated with another, that does not prove that one thing caused the other.
假设您拥有一家比萨饼店，您制作了一个 30 秒的广告在当地电视台播放。广告刚上线后，您注意到销售额增加了 30%。广告是否导致增加？
Imagine you own a pizza parlor and you create a thirty-second advertisement to air on local television. Just after the commercial goes live, you notice a 30 percent increase in sales. Did the advertisement cause the increase?
不一定——增加可能是由于多种因素造成的。可能那天镇上正在开大会，所以镇上的游客比平时多，需要找个地方吃饭。也许学校放假了，家人出去吃饭庆祝。也许您同时提供了一个特价的两个比萨饼促销活动，这就是吸引更多人进门的原因。这么多事情同时发生，很难确定。
Not necessarily—the increase could be due to any number of factors. Maybe a convention was held in town that day, so there were more visitors in town than usual and they needed a quick place to eat. Maybe school let out and families went out to eat to celebrate. Maybe you offered a special two-pizzas-for-the-price-of-one promotion at the same time, and that’s what brought more people in the door. So many things happened at the same time, it’s hard to be certain.
事实上，广告可能导致了销售额的下降——也许人们觉得它没有吸引力或令人反感，但另一个因素导致了销售额的大幅增长，从而掩盖了销售额的下降。
In fact, the commercial may have caused a decline in sales—maybe people found it unappealing or offensive, but another factor caused such a huge increase in sales that it overshadowed the decline.
因果关系总是比相关性更难证明。在分析具有许多变量和相互依赖性的复杂系统时，通常很难找到真正的因果关系。一段时间内系统中发生的更改越多，多个更改对您尝试分析的结果产生影响的可能性就越高。
Causation is always more difficult to prove than Correlation. When analyzing complex systems with many variables and Interdependencies, it’s often difficult to find true causality. The more changes that happen in a system over a period of time, the higher the likelihood that more than one change had an impact on the result you’re trying to analyze.
针对已知变量进行调整可以帮助您隔离系统变化的潜在原因。例如，如果您知道家庭外出庆祝放学或年度大会即将举行，您可以使用历史数据调整季节性。
Adjusting for known variables can help you isolate the potential causes of a change in your system. For example, if you know that families go out to celebrate the end of school or that an annual convention is coming up, you can adjust for that seasonality by using historical data.
您越能将您在系统中所做的更改与其他因素隔离开来，您就越有信心您所做的更改导致了您所看到的结果。
The more you can isolate the change you made in the system from other factors, the more confidence you can have that the change you made caused the results you see.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/correlation-causation/
规范
Norms
那些不记得过去的人注定要重蹈覆辙。
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
——乔治·桑塔亚那，哲学家和格言家
—GEORGE SANTAYANA, PHILOSOPHER AND APHORIST
如果你想研究当前某事的有效性，从过去学习通常是有用的。
If you want to study the effectiveness of something in the present, it’s often useful to learn from the past.
规范是使用历史数据作为工具为当前测量提供上下文的测量。例如，通过查看过去的数据，您可能会发现与销售日期相关的销售数据趋势，这称为季节性。季节性是为什么规范通常有用的一个很好的例子。如果您从事销售圣诞装饰品的业务，比较第四季度（一年的最后一个季度——10 月到 12 月）和第三季度（8 月到 9 月）的销售额是没有用的——没有人在 8 月购买圣诞装饰品。最好将今年第四季度的销售额与去年第四季度的销售额进行比较，看看您的表现是否比去年同期更好。
Norms are measures that use historical data as a tool to provide Context for current Measurements. For example, by looking at past data you may discover trends in your sales data related to the date the sale was made, which is called seasonality. Seasonality is a good example of why Norms are often useful. If you’re in the business of selling Christmas ornaments, comparing sales during Q4 (the last quarter of the year—October through December) to Q3 sales (August through September) isn’t useful—no one purchases Christmas ornaments in August. Far better to compare this year’s Q4 sales with last year’s Q4 sales to see if you performed better than last year’s comparable period.
当测量实践发生变化时，基于先前测量的规范将不再有效。在宝洁，我们有一种方法可以评估某些类型广告的有效性。利用几年的数据，可以将新广告与成功的旧广告进行比较。如果新广告在测试中没有超过标准，它就不会被使用。
When Measurement practices Change, Norms based on the previous Measurements are no longer valid. At P&G, we had a method of evaluating the effectiveness of certain types of advertising. Drawing on several years’ worth of data, it was possible to compare new advertisements with old advertisements that had been successful. If the new advertising didn’t beat the Norm in testing, it wasn’t used.
如果公司突然决定使用不同的测试方法，规范将不再有效——它将是在比较苹果和橙子。更改测量方法会使基于它们的任何规范失效。如果您仍想使用 Norms，则必须重新构建您的历史信息数据库。
If the company suddenly decided to use a different testing methodology, the Norms would no longer be valid—it would be comparing apples and oranges. Change the Measurement methods and you invalidate any Norms based on them. If you still want to use Norms, you must build your database of historical information once again.
过往表现并不能保证未来表现。请记住，我们正在处理复杂的系统——事情总是随着时间而改变。仅仅因为某些东西在过去有用并不意味着它会永远继续表现良好。为获得最佳结果，请定期重新检查您的规范以确保它们有效。
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Remember, we’re dealing with complex systems—things always Change over time. Just because something was useful in the past does not mean it will continue to perform as well in perpetuity. For best results, reexamine your Norms at regular intervals to make sure they’re valid.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/norms/
代理
Proxy
如果你称尾巴为腿，狗有几条腿？四。称尾巴为腿并不能使它成为腿。
How many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg? Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it a leg.
——亚伯拉罕·林肯，美国第十六任总统
—ABRAHAM LINCOLN, SIXTEENTH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
如果无法直接测量某些东西，您会怎么做？
What do you do if it’s not possible to measure something in a direct way?
代理通过测量其他东西来测量一个量。例如，在民主政治制度中，选票被用作衡量“人民意志”的代理人。不可能让该国的每个公民都接受脑部扫描以详细揭示他们的偏好，因此投票被用作下一个最佳选择。
A Proxy measures one quantity by measuring something else. For example, in democratic political systems, votes are used as a Proxy to measure the “will of the people.” It’s not possible to subject every citizen in the country to a brain scan that reveals their preferences in detail, so votes are used as the Next Best Alternative.
在科学测量中一直使用代理。有没有想过科学家是如何知道太阳有多热，或者某些岩石的年龄？他们测量诸如电磁射线的波长或已知放射性同位素的衰变等指标，然后应用经过验证的关系和公式来确定答案。
Proxies are used all the time in scientific measurement. Ever wonder how scientists know how hot the sun is, or how old certain rocks are? They measure Proxies like the wavelength of electromagnetic rays or the decay of known radioactive isotopes, then apply proven relationships and formulas to determine the answer.
有用的代理与主要主题密切相关——越接近越好。以网站分析为例——您可能想知道人们对网页的不同部分关注了多长时间，但同样，您无法扫描每个网站访问者的大脑。然而，跟踪鼠标光标的位置可能是一种有用的注意力代理。根据卡内基梅隆大学研究人员所做的一项研究：
Useful Proxies are closely related to the primary subject—the closer, the better. Take website analytics—you may want to know how long people pay Attention to different parts of the webpage, but again, you can’t scan the brain of each visitor to your website. Tracking the position of the mouse cursor, however, can be a useful Proxy for Attention. According to a study done by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University:
在鼠标光标访问某个区域的次数中，有 84% 的时间（用户）也访问了该区域。此外，88% 没有被眼睛注视的区域也没有被鼠标光标访问过。3个
84% of the times that a region was visited by a mouse cursor, it was also visited by (users’) eye gaze. In addition, 88% of regions that were not gazed by the eye were also not visited by a mouse cursor.3
由于鼠标移动和眼睛注视（即注意力）高度相关，鼠标移动是访问者注意力的一个很好的代理。Correlation 越好，Proxy 就越好。
Because mouse movements and eye fixation (i.e., Attention) are highly Correlated, mouse movements are a good Proxy for visitor Attention. The better the Correlation, the better the Proxy.
为获得最佳效果，请确保代理与预期主题相关。如果代理看起来衡量的是一件事但实际上衡量的是另一件事，那么它们可能会很棘手或具有误导性。回想一下试图通过将代码行数作为关键绩效指标来衡量程序员生产力的示例。正如我们之前讨论的，“代码行”是编程的代理效率，但更多的代码有时是生产力的反信号，使其成为既定目标的无用衡量标准。
For best results, ensure that the Proxy is related to the intended subject. Proxies can be tricky or misleading if they seem to measure one thing but actually measure another. Think back to the example of trying to measure programmer productivity by counting lines of code as a Key Performance Indicator. As we discussed earlier, “lines of code” is a Proxy for programming effectiveness, but more code is sometimes an inverse signal of productivity, making it a useless Measurement for the stated objective.
小心使用，代理可以帮助您衡量无法衡量的东西——只要确保您的代理与感兴趣的主题相关即可。
Used with care, Proxies can help you measure the immeasurable—just be sure your Proxy is Correlated with the subject of interest.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/proxy/
分割
Segmentation
分析必杀技规则：永远不要在不细分的情况下报告指标（即使是上帝最喜欢的 KPI）。. . 没有任何 KPI 本身如此有洞察力，即使是在趋势或预测中，也不能通过应用细分来提高影响力。
Analytics nirvana rule: never report a metric (even God’s favorite KPI) without segmenting it . . . There is no KPI so insightful all by itself, even in a trend or against a forecast, that can’t be made more impactful by applying segmentation.
—AVINASH KAUSHIK，数据分析专家和企业家
—AVINASH KAUSHIK, DATA-ANALYTICS EXPERT AND ENTREPRENEUR
聚合数据集通常包含隐藏的金块——如果您能找到它们的话。分段是一种技术，涉及将数据集拆分为定义明确的子组以添加额外的Context。将数据分成预定义的组可以发现以前未知的关系。例如，知道本月订单增加了 87% 很好，但知道这些新订单中 90% 来自西雅图的女性就更好了。找出是什么让这些女性下单，您将能够利用这些信息进一步利用您的成功。
Very often, aggregate data sets contain hidden nuggets of gold—if you can find them. Segmentation is a technique that involves splitting a data set into well-defined subgroups to add additional Context. Splitting the data into predefined groups can uncover previously unknown relationships. For example, knowing that orders increased by 87 percent this month is good, but knowing that 90 percent of those new orders came from women in Seattle is even better. Find out what made those women order and you’ll be able to use that information to further capitalize on your success.
细分客户数据的三种常用方法是：过去的表现、人口统计和心理统计。
There are three common ways to Segment customer data: past performance, demographics, and psychographics.
过去的表现通过过去已知的行为来细分客户。例如，您可以使用以前的销售数据对客户销售数据进行细分，将新客户的销售额与已向您购买的客户的销售额进行比较。终生价值计算是按过去表现进行细分的一种形式。
Past performance Segments customers by past known actions. For example, you can Segment customer sales data using previous sales data, comparing sales to new customers with sales to customers who have already purchased from you. Lifetime Value calculations are a form of Segmentation by past performance.
人口统计按外部个人特征细分客户。年龄、性别、收入、国籍和位置等个人信息可以帮助您确定哪些客户是您的可能购买者。了解您最好的客户是年龄在 23 岁到 32 岁之间、居住在主要大都市地区并且每月可支配收入超过 2,000 美元的男性可能非常有用——您可以将您的营销工作集中在吸引更多具有这些特征的潜在客户上。
Demographics Segment customers by external personal characteristics. Personal information like age, gender, income, nationality, and location can help you determine which customers are your Probable Purchasers. Knowing that your best customers are males between the ages of twenty-three and thirty-two who live in major metropolitan areas and have more than $2,000 per month in disposable income can be quite useful—you can focus your marketing efforts on reaching more prospects who have those characteristics.
心理特征按内部心理特征对客户进行细分。通常通过调查、评估或焦点小组发现，心理特征是影响人们如何看待自己和整个世界的态度或世界观。
Psychographics Segment customers by internal psychological characteristics. Typically discovered via surveys, assessments, or focus groups, psychographics are attitudes or world views that influence how people see themselves and the world at large.
心理学在创建或调整您的价值创造、营销和销售策略方面非常有用。例如，如果您销售家庭安全系统，您的潜在购买者很可能会相信“世界是一个危险的地方”这样的说法，即使在家中也会感到有些危险。尝试在生存主义和自卫杂志和网站上推广您的产品——这些市场的客户可能有类似的信念——可能不是一个坏主意。
Psychographics can be very useful in creating or adjusting your value creation, marketing, and sales strategies. For example, if you’re selling home security systems, it’s likely that your Probable Purchasers will believe statements like “the world is a dangerous place” and feel somewhat in danger even when in their homes. Experimenting with promoting your product in survivalist and self-defense magazines and websites—markets whose customers might have similar beliefs—might not be a bad idea.
分割您的数据，您会发现许多有用的隐藏联系值得研究。
Segment your data and you’ll find many useful hidden connections worth investigating.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/segmentation/
人性化
Humanization
人是宇宙的中心。不是东西。
People are the center of the universe. Not stuff.
—STOWE BOYD，社会技术专家
—STOWE BOYD, SOCIAL TECHNOLOGIST
分析数据对有定量头脑的人来说是一种安慰，但要正确使用数据，你必须超越数字的局限性，去理解它们告诉你的是什么。
Analyzing data is comforting to the quantitative-minded, but to use data properly, you must go beyond juggling numbers to understand what they’re telling you.
在分析来自系统的数据时，很容易忘记它通常与真实人类的行为有关。例如，想象一个通过电话回答客户投诉的客户服务部门。将保持时间从 10 分钟减少到 8 分钟听起来不错——提高了 20%！
When analyzing data from a system, it’s easy to forget that it often pertains to the actions of real human beings. For example, imagine a customer service department that answers customer complaints by telephone. Reducing hold times from ten minutes to eight minutes sounds great—that’s a 20 percent improvement!
把香槟收起来：以数据为中心的观点忽略了一个事实，即您仍然有一个不满意的客户在电话上等了八分钟，这仍然感觉像是永恒。等待的每一分钟都会让客户更加愤怒，从而影响他们对公司的看法。与声誉对您的业务造成的影响相比，这 20% 的改进显得苍白无力每次客户告诉他们的朋友和同事您的公司处理起来有多糟糕时。
Put the champagne away: what the data-centric viewpoint misses is the fact that you still have a dissatisfied customer waiting on the phone for eight minutes, which still feels like an eternity. Every minute on hold makes that customer angrier, which affects their perception of the company. That 20 percent improvement pales in comparison to the Reputation hit your business takes every time that customer tells their friends and associates how horrible your company is to deal with.
人性化是利用数据讲述一个真实的人的经历或行为的故事（ Narrative ）的过程。可量化的措施在总体上是有帮助的，但通常需要将措施重新定义为实际行为以了解正在发生的事情。
Humanization is the process of using data to tell a story (Narrative) about a real person’s experience or behavior. Quantifiable measures are helpful in the aggregate, but it’s often necessary to reframe the measure into actual behavior to understand what’s happening.
许多企业通过开发一系列角色来实现人性化：根据数据开发的虚构人物形象。当我为 P&G 开发家庭清洁产品时，市场研究数据告诉我们存在两大细分市场：重视定期深度清洁的人（“除非我用手和膝盖用漂白剂和肘部油脂清洁，否则我不会满意” ) 以及希望清洁快速方便的人（“我太忙了，没时间清洁——只要看起来足够好，我就很开心”）。
Many businesses Humanize by developing a series of personas: fictional profiles of people developed from data. When I developed home cleaning products for P&G, market research data told us that two broad Segments existed: people who valued regular deep cleaning (“Unless I’m on my hands and knees cleaning with bleach and elbow grease, I’m not satisfied”) and people who wanted cleaning to be quick and convenient (“I’m too busy to clean—as long as it looks good enough, I’m happy”).
使用这些信息，我们将这些特征与家庭收入、家庭统计数据和爱好等其他数据结合起来，创建一个虚构人物的档案。一旦建立了个人资料，我们就可以更容易地使用我们必须做出决定的数据——而不是依靠统计数据来评估一个想法，我们可以依靠我们的直觉来问自己“温迪”是否喜欢它。
Using this information, we combined these characteristics with other data like household income, family statistics, and hobbies to create a profile of a fictional person. Once the profile was developed, it became easier to use the data we had to make decisions—instead of relying on statistics to evaluate an idea, we could rely on our intuition by asking ourselves if “Wendy” would like it.
不要只是展示数据——讲一个故事来帮助人们理解正在发生的事情，你会发现你的分析工作更有用。
Don’t just present data—tell a story that helps people understand what’s happening and you’ll find your analysis efforts more useful.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/humanization/
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改进系统
IMPROVING SYSTEMS
从理论上讲，理论和实践之间没有区别。但是，在实践中，是有的。
In theory there’s no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is.
——本杰明·布鲁斯特，圣公会主教
—BENJAMIN BREWSTER, EPISCOPAL BISHOP
创建和改进系统是成功商业实践的核心。理解和分析系统的目的是改进它们，这通常很棘手——改变系统通常会产生意想不到的后果。
Creating and improving systems is the heart of successful business practice. The purpose of understanding and analyzing systems is to improve them, which is often tricky—changing systems can often create unintended consequences.
在本章中，您将学习优化的秘密，如何从关键流程中消除不必要的摩擦，以及如何构建能够处理不确定性和变化的系统。
In this chapter, you’ll learn the secrets of Optimization, how to remove unnecessary Friction from critical processes, and how to build systems that can handle Uncertainty and Change.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/improving-systems/
干预偏差
Intervention Bias
对于每一个复杂的问题，都有一个清晰、简单和错误的答案。
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
——HL MENCKEN，散文家
—H. L. MENCKEN, ESSAYIST
在对系统进行更改之前，重要的是要了解人类倾向于做某事而不是什么都不做。作为我们讨论过，失神导致我们重视我们看得见的东西而不是看不到的东西。这种倾向会影响我们在系统上的工作方式：干预偏见使我们可能会引入不必要的更改，以便感觉可以控制情况。
Before making a change to a system, it’s important to understand that human beings are predisposed to do something rather than nothing. As we discussed, Absence Blindness leads us to value things we can see over things we can’t. This predisposition affects how we work on systems: Intervention Bias makes us likely to introduce changes that aren’t necessary in order to feel in control of a situation.
许多公司政策都源于干预偏见。当坏事发生时，人们很想通过安装额外的限制、报告和审计层来“修复”这种情况。结果不是吞吐量或效率的提高：而是通信开销、浪费和低效官僚主义的增加。
Many corporate policies have their roots in Intervention Bias. When something bad happens, it’s tempting to “fix” the situation by installing additional layers of limitations, reporting, and auditing. The result isn’t an improvement in Throughput or efficiency: it’s an increase in Communication Overhead, waste, and unproductive bureaucracy.
纠正干预偏差的最佳方法是检查科学家所说的“无效假设”：检查如果您什么都不做或假设情况是意外或错误会发生什么。
The best way to correct for Intervention Bias is to examine what scientists call a “null hypothesis”: examining what would happen if you did nothing or assumed the situation was an accident or error.
想象一下，一家公司允许其员工购买他们想要或需要的任何书籍，而无需提出任何问题。书籍是高质量信息的廉价来源，因此让员工轻松获得它们是有道理的。
Imagine a company that allows its employees to purchase any book they want or need, no questions asked. Books are inexpensive sources of high-quality information, so making it easy for employees to obtain them makes sense.
一切都很好，直到一名员工滥用特权并订购数百本小说供个人欣赏。应该做什么？
All is well until one employee abuses the privilege and orders hundreds of novels for personal enjoyment. What should be done?
许多公司的回应是取消该政策并要求经理批准所有图书购买。但这种变化并不能解决问题，因为这不是一个普遍存在的问题。相反，它会惹恼或激怒负责任地使用福利的员工，通过增加文书工作和官僚主义来浪费每个人的时间，并通过增加查找可用于改善业务的信息所需的时间来降低员工的工作效率。
Many companies would respond by eliminating the policy and requiring a manager’s approval for all book purchases. But this change wouldn’t fix the situation, because it isn’t a widespread issue. Instead, it would annoy or anger employees who use the benefit responsibly, waste time for everyone by increasing paperwork and bureaucracy, and reduce employee productivity by increasing the amount of time it takes to find information they can use to improve the business.
在这种情况下正确的反应是什么都不做。一名员工做出了不负责任的决定，因此可以通过一次讨论来处理这种情况，而无需对政策做出重大改变。损害是有限的，因为一个人的错误判断而惩罚所有人是没有意义的。这是正常事故，因此反应过度会适得其反。
The correct response in this case is to do nothing. One employee made an irresponsible decision, so the situation can be handled with a single discussion, without a major change in policy. The damage is limited, and there’s no sense in penalizing everyone for a single person’s poor judgment. It is a Normal Accident, so overreaction is counterproductive.
在干预之前检查零假设将帮助您避免干预偏差并确保您做出最佳决策。
Examining the null hypothesis before intervening will help you avoid Intervention Bias and ensure you make the best possible decisions.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/intervention-bias/
优化
Optimization
过早的优化是万恶之源。
Premature optimization is the root of all evil.
—DONALD KNUTH，著名计算机科学家
—DONALD KNUTH, RENOWNED COMPUTER SCIENTIST
优化是最大化系统输出或最小化系统运行所需的特定输入的过程。优化围绕关键绩效指标背后的系统和流程展开，这些指标衡量整个系统的关键要素。提高您的 KPI，您的系统就会表现得更好。
Optimization is the process of maximizing the output of a system or minimizing a specific input the system requires to operate. Optimization revolves around the systems and processes behind your Key Performance Indicators, which measure the critical elements of the system as a whole. Improve your KPIs and your system will perform better.
最大化关注系统的吞吐量。如果你想赚更多的钱，创造更多的单位来销售，或者服务更多的客户，你就是在优化吞吐量。对系统进行更改以增加吞吐量意味着您的系统以特定的、可衡量的方式表现得更好。
Maximization focuses on the system’s Throughput. If you want to earn more money, create more units to sell, or serve more customers, you’re Optimizing for Throughput. Making Changes to the system that increase Throughput means your system is performing better in a specific, measurable way.
最小化侧重于系统运行所需的进程内输入。如果您想增加利润率，成本是关键投入之一。最大限度地降低成本，您的利润就会增加。
Minimization focuses on in-process inputs required for the system to operate. If you’re trying to increase your Profit Margin, costs are one of the key inputs. Minimize your costs and your margins will increase.
根据定义，如果您试图最大化或最小化不止一件事，您就不是在优化——您是在进行权衡。许多人使用术语优化来表示“让一切变得更好”，但该定义并不能帮助您做任何事情。
By definition, if you’re trying to maximize or minimize more than one thing, you’re not Optimizing—you’re making Trade-offs. Many people use the term Optimization to mean “making everything better,” but that definition doesn’t help you do anything.
实际上，尝试同时针对多个变量进行优化是行不通的——您需要能够在一段时间内专注于一个变量，这样您才能了解您所做的更改如何影响整个系统。您试图在您的变更中找到因果关系（而不是相关性），而隐藏的相互依赖性会使您难以理解哪些变更产生了哪些结果。
In practical terms, trying to Optimize for many variables at once doesn’t work—you need to be able to concentrate on a single variable for a while, so you can understand how the Changes you make affect the system as a whole. You’re trying to find Causation (not Correlation) in your Changes, and hidden Interdependencies can make it difficult to understand which Changes produced which results.
请记住：您无法同时跨多个变量优化系统性能。选择最重要的一个并集中精力。
Remember: you can’t Optimize a system’s performance across multiple variables at once. Pick the most important one and focus your efforts.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/optimization/
重构
Refactoring
优雅必然是不自然的，只有付出巨大的代价才能实现。如果你只是做某事，它不会很优雅，但如果你做了然后看看什么可能更优雅，然后再做一次，经过未知次数的迭代，你可能会得到非常优雅的东西。
Elegance is necessarily unnatural, only achievable at great expense. If you just do something, it won’t be elegant, but if you do it and then see what might be more elegant, and do it again, you might, after an unknown number of iterations, get something that is very elegant.
—ERIK NAGGUM，计算机程序员
—ERIK NAGGUM, COMPUTER PROGRAMMER
并非系统的所有更改都旨在影响系统的输出。有时，在根本不改变最终结果的情况下重新设计流程会更有效。
Not all changes to a system are designed to affect the system’s output. Sometimes it’s more effective to reengineer a process without changing the End Result at all.
重构是在不改变系统输出的情况下改变系统以提高效率的过程。这个术语来自计算机编程——程序员会花几个小时重写一个程序，如果一切顺利，他们完成后会做同样的事情。重点是什么？
Refactoring is the process of changing a system to improve efficiency without changing the output of the system. The term comes from computer programming—programmers will spend hours rewriting a program that, if all goes well, does the same thing when they’re finished. What’s the point?
重构的主要好处不是改进输出——而是使系统本身更快或更高效。通过重新安排系统用于生成结果的进程，可以使程序运行得更快或在运行时需要更少的资源。
The primary benefit of Refactoring isn’t improving the output—it’s making the system itself faster or more efficient. By rearranging the processes the system uses to produce the result, it’s possible to make the program run faster or require fewer resources while operating.
重构从解构流程或系统开始，然后搜索模式。为了实现预期目标，必须正确完成哪些关键流程？这些过程是否必须按特定顺序完成？当前的约束是什么？什么看起来特别重要？尽可能多地收集有关系统如何工作的信息，然后静坐一会儿。
Refactoring starts by Deconstructing a process or system, followed by a search for patterns. What are the critical processes that must be done right in order to achieve the desired objective? Do those processes have to be completed in a certain order? What are the current Constraints? What appears to be particularly important? Collect as much information about how the system works as you can, then sit with it for a while.
通常情况下，您会开始注意到系统中没有意义的事情——您以某种方式完成的事情，因为这在当时看起来是个好主意，但那不是最好的方法现在接近任务。
More often than not, you’ll start to notice things about the system that don’t make sense—things that you’ve done a certain way because it seemed like a good idea at the time but that aren’t the best way to approach the task now.
一旦开始出现模式，您就可以重新安排系统，将相似的流程或输入组合在一起。考虑重新布置一条装配线：如果您必须停下手头的工作并一路穿越工厂以获取必要的组件，那么重新布置事物以便组件始终触手可及可能是个好主意。完成后系统仍会产生相同的结果，但是您会从系统中消除一点效率低下的情况，这会增加生产力的重大损失。
Once patterns begin to emerge, you can rearrange the system to group similar processes or inputs together. Think of rearranging an assembly line: if you have to stop what you’re doing and travel all the way across the factory to obtain a necessary component, rearranging things so the component is always close at hand is probably a good idea. The system will still produce the same thing when you’re done, but you’ll have removed a little inefficiency from the system that adds up to significant losses in productivity.
如果您的目标是使系统更快或更高效，那么重构是您最好的工具之一。
If your Goal is to make the system faster or more efficient, Refactoring is one of your best tools.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/refactoring/
关键的少数
The Critical Few
通常，原因、投入或努力分为两类：(1) 大多数，影响很小，和 (2) 少数，具有重大的主导影响。
Typically, causes, inputs, or effort divide into two categories: (1) the majority, that have little impact, and (2) a small minority, that have a major, dominant impact.
—RICHARD KOCH，商业顾问和80/20 原则的作者
—RICHARD KOCH, BUSINESS CONSULTANT AND AUTHOR OF THE 80/20 PRINCIPLE
Vilfredo Pareto 是 19 世纪的经济学家和社会学家，他对土地所有权和财富的社会分配非常感兴趣。在收集和分析大量数据后，帕累托发现了一个奇怪的模式：意大利 80% 以上的土地由不到 20% 的人口拥有。意大利经济分布不均，或者呈许多人假设的钟形曲线分布：财富高度集中在相对较小的个人群体中。
Vilfredo Pareto was a nineteenth-century economist and sociologist who was very interested in the topic of land ownership and the social distribution of wealth. After collecting and analyzing a great deal of data, Pareto found a curious pattern: over 80 percent of the land in Italy was owned by less than 20 percent of the population. The Italian economy wasn’t distributed evenly, or in the bell curve–shaped distribution many people assumed: wealth was highly concentrated among a relatively small group of individuals.
当帕累托研究生活的其他领域时，他发现了相同的模式：例如，在帕累托的花园里，20% 的豌豆荚产出了 80% 的豌豆。发生了什么事？
As Pareto studied other areas of life, he found the same pattern: in Pareto’s garden, for example, 20 percent of the pea pods produced 80 percent of the peas. What was going on?
在任何复杂系统中，少数输入产生大部分输出。这种持续非线性模式现在称为帕累托原则，或 80-20 法则。我更愿意称它为“关键少数”。
In any complex system, a minority of the inputs produce the majority of the output. This pattern of persistent nonlinearity is now called the Pareto principle, or the 80-20 rule. I prefer to call it the Critical Few.
一旦了解了这种常见模式，您就会在生活的许多领域发现它：
Once you understand this common pattern, you’ll find it in many areas of life:
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在许多企业中，不到 20% 的客户占年收入的 80% 以上。
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In many businesses, less than 20 percent of the customers account for more than 80 percent of annual revenue.
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不到 20% 的企业员工从事 80% 或更多的最有价值的工作。
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Less than 20 percent of a business’s employees do 80 percent or more of the most valuable work.
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在超过 80% 的时间里，你衣橱里只穿了不到 20% 的衣服。
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You wear less than 20 percent of the clothing in your closet over 80 percent of the time.
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您花费超过 80% 的时间与不到 20% 的个人联系人进行交流。
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You spend over 80 percent of your time communicating with less than 20 percent of your personal contacts.
关键少数的非线性通常是极端的。例如，世界上不到 3% 的人口拥有世界总财富的 97% 以上。随着时间的推移，政治权力（在国家和公司中）也倾向于集中在少数人手中，这导致极少数人做出影响数亿人生活的决定。远低于 1% 的电影成为大片，不到 0.1% 的书籍成为畅销书。
The nonlinearity of the Critical Few can often be extreme. For example, less than 3 percent of the world’s population is in possession of over 97 percent of the world’s total wealth. Over time, political power (in both countries and companies) also tends to concentrate in the hands of a few people, which results in a very small group of individuals making decisions that affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people. Far less than 1 percent of movies ever produced become blockbusters, and less than 0.1 percent of books ever written become bestsellers.
为获得最佳结果，请关注可产生大部分所需结果的关键输入。在每周工作 4 小时中，Timothy Ferriss 解释了他如何使用关键少数来识别他的最佳客户。在 Ferriss 服务的 120 位客户中，有 5 位客户占公司收入的 95%。通过专注于那些表现最好的批发商并将其余客户置于“自动驾驶”状态，Ferriss 将他的月收入翻了一番，并将他的工作时间从每周 80 小时减少到 15 小时。
For best results, focus on the critical inputs that produce most of the results you want. In The 4-Hour Workweek, Timothy Ferriss explains how he used the Critical Few to identify his best customers. Out of the 120 customers Ferriss was serving, 5 accounted for 95 percent of the business’s revenue. By focusing on those top-performing wholesalers and putting the rest of his customers on “autopilot,” Ferriss doubled his monthly revenue and cut his work time from eighty hours to fifteen hours a week.
同样的方法通常可用于剔除您不想要的结果。在进行业务分析时，Ferriss 意识到两个特定的客户造成了他的大部分挫败感和压力。“解雇”这些耗费精力的客户，尽管他们代表着重要的销量来源，但也解放了他的时间和精力。因此，他能够确保与三个额外的大客户进行分销，从而提高了底线，而没有一直头疼的问题。
The same approach is often useful to weed out results you don’t want. While conducting his business analysis, Ferriss realized that two particular customers accounted for most of his frustration and stress. “Firing” these energy-sucking customers, even though they represented significant sources of volume, liberated his time and energy. As a result, he was able to secure distribution with three additional high-volume customers that boosted the bottom line without the constant headaches.
非关键投入是重要的机会成本。例如，如果您将大部分时间花在无成效的会议上，那么您就是在浪费本可以用来完成重要事情的时间。非关键费用也是如此：它们代表您可以用来产生更大效果的钱。
Noncritical inputs are significant Opportunity Costs. If you’re spending most of your time in unproductive meetings, for example, you’re wasting time that could be used to get important things done. The same goes for noncritical expenses: they represent money that you could be using to far greater effect.
找到产生你想要的输出的输入，然后让它们成为你大部分时间和精力的焦点。消除其余部分。
Find the inputs that produce the outputs you want, then make them the focus of most of your time and energy. Eliminate the rest.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/critical-few/
收益递减
Diminishing Returns
最后 10% 的性能会产生三分之一的成本和三分之二的问题。
The last 10 percent of performance generates one-third of the cost and two-thirds of the problems.
—NORMAN R. AUGUSTINE，美国陆军航空航天执行官和前副部长
—NORMAN R. AUGUSTINE, AEROSPACE EXECUTIVE AND FORMER UNDERSECRETARY OF THE U.S. ARMY
如果您的银行账户中有 10 美元，那么在刚洗好的裤子口袋里发现 5 美元是一件值得庆祝的事情。如果你的银行账户里有 1000 万美元，同样的情况是小事一桩。
If you have $10 in your bank account, finding $5 in the pocket of your freshly laundered pants is a cause for celebration. If you have $10 million in your bank account, the same situation is a non-event.
同样，吃一块饼干也很棒。吃两块饼干就更好了。吃一百更糟。更多并不总是更好。（同样的关系也适用于喝啤酒和服用维生素。）
In a similar vein, eating one cookie is great. Eating two cookies is even better. Eating a hundred is worse. More is not always better. (The same relationship applies to drinking beer and taking vitamins.)
所有美好的事物都会受到收益递减的影响——在某一点之后，拥有更多的东西可能是有害的。当我在宝洁公司做市场营销时，我们花了很多时间和精力分析我们广告的结果。在投放电视广告的前几周，很容易看出它的表现是否符合预期。如果商业广告表现良好，我们会为其分配更多资金，但这只能持续这么长时间。
All good things are subject to Diminishing Returns—after a certain point, having more of something can be detrimental. When I was in marketing at P&G, we spent a lot of time and effort analyzing the results of our advertising. In the first few weeks of running a television commercial, it was easy to see if it was performing as expected. If the commercial was performing well, we’d allocate more money to it, but that would only work for so long.
无论人们多么喜欢这个广告，在某个时候它都会“耗尽”，公司将不再为展示该广告花费的每一美元产生 1 美元的收入。这就是“收益递减点”——如果我们花更多的钱展示同一个广告，公司就会开始亏损。用这些资金以不同的方式推广产品要好得多。
No matter how much people liked the commercial, at a certain point it would “wear out,” and the company would no longer produce $1 of revenue for every dollar the company spent showing that ad. That was the “point of diminishing returns”—if we spent more dollars showing the same commercial, the company would start losing money. Far better to spend those funds promoting the product in a different way.
花一点时间和精力来获得大胜利总是比什么都不做要好。在《教你致富》一书中，Ramit Sethi 建议应用他所谓的“85% 解决方案”。如此多的人沉浸在做出完美的决定中，以至于他们最终不知所措而无所事事。专注于做一些简单的事情，这些事情将产生您正在寻找的大部分结果，然后收工。
It’s always better to spend a little time and energy to get the big wins than to do nothing. In I Will Teach You to Be Rich, Ramit Sethi recommends applying what he calls the “85% Solution.” So many people get wrapped up in making the perfect decision that they wind up overwhelming themselves and doing nothing. Focus on doing a few simple things that will produce most of the results you’re looking for, then call it a day.
不要觉得你必须优化一切以达到完美。优化和重构也受到关键少数的影响——一些小的改变可以产生巨大的结果。在您摘下“唾手可得的果实”之后，进一步优化所付出的努力可能会超过您获得的回报。这是停止的好时机。完美主义是粗心者的陷阱。
Don’t feel like you have to Optimize everything to perfection. Optimization and Refactoring are affected by the Critical Few as well—a few small changes can produce enormous results. After you’ve picked the “low-hanging fruit,” further Optimization can cost more in effort than you’ll reap in returns. That’s a good point to stop. Perfectionism is a trap for the unwary.
优化和重构直到您开始体验收益递减，然后专注于做其他事情。
Optimize and Refactor up to the point you start experiencing Diminishing Returns, then focus on doing something else.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/diminishing-returns/
渐进负荷
Progressive Load
一点一点，一个人走得很远。
Little by little, one travels far.
——西班牙谚语
—SPANISH PROVERB
第一次系好跑鞋就跑马拉松，或者第一次去健身房尝试举起 400 磅，都不是一个好主意。最有效（且风险最低）的策略是从一个小但可管理的挑战开始，在该级别上工作直到变得容易，然后随着您的身体适应逐渐增加挑战级别。
It’s not a good idea to run a marathon the first time you lace up your running shoes, or attempt to lift four hundred pounds the first time you go to the gym. The most effective (and lowest-risk) strategy is to start with a small but manageable challenge, work at that level until it becomes easy, and increase the level of challenge over time as your body adapts.
这种策略的术语是渐进式负载：通过逐渐增加对系统的需求来增加系统的总容量，促使系统随着时间的推移而改变以适应新的需求。
The term for this strategy is Progressive Load: increasing the amount of total capacity in a system by gradually increasing demand on the system, prompting the system to Change to adapt to the new demands over time.
渐进式负荷是一种通用方法，适用于健身以外的领域。企业常常想通过雇用更多员工来解决问题，尤其是在销售和客户支持等领域，但新员工需要时间和培训才能发挥最大效能。招聘速度过快不会增加产能，反而会导致新问题，而不是解决问题。
Progressive Load is a universal approach that works in areas well beyond fitness. Businesses are often tempted to solve problems by hiring additional employees, particularly in areas like sales and customer support, but it takes time and training for new employees to reach their maximum effectiveness. Instead of increasing capacity, hiring too fast can cause new problems instead of solving them.
未经培训的销售人员做出企业无法兑现的承诺的风险更高，而未经培训的客户支持人员无法很好地处理沮丧的客户、传达公司政策以及在情况允许时对这些政策做出例外处理。有效的培训需要来自管理人员或经验丰富的员工的指导、沟通和监督，这增加了对现有员工的要求。这种投资通常会在中长期内获得回报，但在短期内会以承受压力为代价。增加太多压力会导致现有员工寻找其他选择，而关键员工的流失会导致重要经验和能力的丧失。
Untrained salespeople have a higher risk of making promises the business can’t deliver on, and untrained customer-support staff aren’t well equipped to handle frustrated customers, communicate company policies, and make exceptions to those policies when the situation warrants it. Effective training requires instruction, communication, and oversight from managers or experienced staff, increasing demands on current staff. That investment often pays off in the medium- to long term, but at the cost of stress in the short term. Adding too much stress can lead current employees to look for other options, and the loss of key employees can result in the loss of important experience and capacity.
增加容量最有效的方法是随着时间的推移以一致的方式少量增加，这会在不增加需求的情况下增加容量超出了系统当前的处理能力。与其一次雇用几名新员工到一个团队，不如每年增加几次新员工通常是更好的方法。
The most effective way to add capacity is to add small amounts in a consistent way over time, which increases capacity without adding demands that are beyond the system’s current ability to handle. Instead of hiring several new employees to a team at once, adding an additional employee a few times per year is often a better approach.
持续改进积累成大的改进。如有疑问，请从小处着手并逐步建立。
Consistent improvements Accumulate into large improvements. When in doubt, start small and build over time.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/progressive-load/
摩擦
Friction
世界很大，我不会把我的生命浪费在摩擦中，当它可以变成动力时。
The world is wide, and I will not waste my life in friction when it could be turned into momentum.
——弗朗西斯·E·威拉德 (FRANCES E. WILLARD)，教育家和选举权主义者，带头发起了通过美国宪法第十八和十九次修正案的运动
—FRANCES E. WILLARD, EDUCATOR AND SUFFRAGIST WHO SPEARHEADED THE CAMPAIGN TO ADOPT THE EIGHTEENTH AND NINETEENTH AMENDMENTS TO THE US CONSTITUTION
想象一下你面前的地上有一个冰球。您手持曲棍球棒，目标是将冰球从当前位置移至一英里外的球门。
Imagine a hockey puck on the ground in front of you. You’re armed with a hockey stick, and the objective is to move the puck from its present location to the goal, which is located one mile away.
首先，假设冰球位于一片高高的草丛中，草丛随风飘扬。曲棍球棒的每一次击打只会使冰球移动几英尺，因为高草会夺走冰球的能量。以这种速度，您必须击球数千次才能到达球门，并且很快就会耗尽体力。达到目标会花费你很多令人沮丧的时间。
First, assume the puck is sitting in a field of tall grass, which is waving in the wind. Each whack of the hockey stick will move the puck only a few feet, since the tall grass robs the puck of energy. At this rate, you’ll have to hit the puck thousands of times before you get to the goal, and you’ll exhaust your energy quickly. It’ll take you many frustrating hours to reach the goal.
现在假设您修剪田地，直到您面前的草变得很短。每次您击球时，它都会飞出 20 英尺或更多——这是一个巨大的进步。冰球与更少的草接触，这意味着它每次击球都会移动更远的距离。您仍然需要努力使冰球达到目标，但您会更快、更省力地实现目标。
Now let’s assume you mow the field until the grass in front of you is very short. Each time you hit the puck, it goes twenty feet or more—a huge improvement. The puck comes in contact with less grass, which means that it travels a longer distance with every strike. You’ll still have to work to get the puck to the goal, but you’ll achieve your objective faster and with less effort.
最后，假设您用水淹没田地并将其冻结，直到景观变成光滑的冰面。现在，每次您击打冰球时，冰球都会移动数百英尺，因为冰不会夺走冰球的能量——冰球会沿着表面滑动。按照这个速度，你只需要击球几次就可以达到目标，而且完成后你不会感到疲倦。
Finally, let’s assume you flood the field with water and freeze it, until the landscape is a smooth plane of ice. Now the puck will travel hundreds of feet every time you hit it, because the ice doesn’t rob the puck of energy—the puck glides along the surface. At this rate, you’ll only need to hit the puck a few times before you’ve achieved the objective, and you won’t be tired when you’re done.
摩擦是随着时间从系统中移除能量的任何力或过程。在存在摩擦的情况下，有必要继续为系统增加能量，以保持其随着时间的推移以相同的速度移动。除非添加额外的能量，否则摩擦会使系统减速直至停止。消除摩擦，您将提高系统的效率。
Friction is any force or process that removes energy from a system over time. In the presence of Friction, it’s necessary to continue to add energy to a system to keep it moving at the same rate over time. Unless additional energy is added, Friction will slow the system down until it comes to a stop. Remove the Friction and you’ll increase the system’s efficiency.
每个业务流程都有一定程度的摩擦。关键是确定当前存在摩擦的区域，然后尝试进行小的改进以减少系统中的摩擦量。随着时间的推移消除少量的摩擦会累积成质量和效率的巨大改进。
Every business process has some amount of Friction. The key is to identify areas where Friction currently exists, then experiment with small improvements that will reduce the amount of Friction in the system. Removing small amounts of Friction over time Accumulates into large improvements in both quality and efficiency.
从您的营销、销售和价值交付过程中消除即使是少量的摩擦，也可以显着提高利润。例如，像亚马逊这样的零售商竭尽全力减少客户下订单所需的工作量。从允许客户单击一下即可购买商品（收费并将订单发送到客户的默认信用卡和存档地址）到推荐相关商品进行购买，亚马逊的目标是让客户尽可能轻松地在线购买.
Removing even small amounts of Friction from your marketing, sales, and value-delivery processes can generate major improvements in Profit. For example, retailers like Amazon go to enormous lengths to minimize the amount of effort it takes for a customer to place an order. From allowing customers to purchase items with a single click (which charges and ships the order to the customer’s default credit card and address on file) to recommending related items for purchase, Amazon aims to make it as easy as possible for its customers to buy online.
亚马逊 Prime 服务将客户下的每个订单升级为两天送达，是减少摩擦好处的教科书示例。只需缴纳少量年费，Prime 客户就可以在两天或更短时间内通过邮件收到购买的商品，而无需在零售店逗留。
Amazon Prime, a service that upgrades every order a customer places to two-day shipping, is a textbook example of the benefits of reducing Friction. In exchange for a small annual fee, Prime customers receive their purchases by mail in two days or less, without spending time in a retail store.
当客户注册 Amazon Prime 时，该客户的年度订单量会翻倍。46% 的 Prime 会员每周至少从亚马逊购买一次商品，31% 的 Prime 会员每天浏览该零售商的网站。. . 这一切都归功于减少了购买过程中的摩擦。1个
When a customer signs up for Amazon Prime, that customer’s annual order volume doubles. 46 percent of Prime members purchase items from Amazon at least once per week, and 31 percent of Prime subscribers browse the retailer’s website on a daily basis . . . all thanks to reducing Friction in the buying process.1
引入有意的摩擦有时会鼓励人们以某种方式行事或做出特定的决定。例如，在您的退货流程中增加少量摩擦，例如要求客户提供收据或解释退货原因，可以减少退货的人数。你不想添加太多，因为这会对你的声誉产生负面影响——如果你让他们为退款而努力工作，客户会生气——但在正确的地方稍微摩擦可以帮助防止无意义的退货。
Introducing intentional Friction can sometimes encourage people to behave in a certain way or make a particular decision. For example, adding a small amount of Friction to your returns process, like requiring the customer to provide a receipt or explain the reason for the return, can decrease the number of people who return your product. You don’t want to add too much, since that can negatively impact your Reputation—customers get angry if you make them work too hard for a refund—but a little Friction in the right place can help prevent frivolous returns.
在适当的地方努力从您的业务系统中消除摩擦，您将以更少的努力产生更好的结果。
Work on removing Friction from your business system where appropriate and you’ll generate better results for less effort.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/friction/
自动化
Automation
企业中使用的任何技术的第一条规则是，将自动化应用于高效运营将提高效率。第二，自动化应用于低效操作会放大低效率。
The first rule of any technology used in a business is that automation applied to an efficient operation will magnify the efficiency. The second is that automation applied to an inefficient operation will magnify the inefficiency.
——比尔·盖茨，微软联合创始人兼董事长
—BILL GATES, COFOUNDER AND CHAIRMAN OF MICROSOFT
消除足够多的摩擦，人们可能根本不必参与流程。
Remove enough Friction, and people may not have to be involved in a process at all.
自动化是指无需人工干预即可运行的系统或过程。工厂生产线、公用事业网络和计算机程序使用自动化来最大限度地减少完成任务所需的人工参与量。操作系统所需的人力越少，自动化的效率就越高。
Automation refers to a system or process that can operate without human intervention. Factory production lines, utility networks, and computer programs use Automation to minimize the amount of human involvement necessary to complete a task. The less human effort required to operate the system, the more efficient the Automation.
自动化最适合定义明确的重复性任务。例如，如果每次有人想阅读我推荐的商业书籍列表时我都必须回复信件或电子邮件，我会发疯的。幸运的是，我可以将列表放在我的网站上——每次有人请求列表时，我都会毫不费力地将其发送给他们。我的阅读清单已被来自世界各地的数十万读者浏览过，而自动化使之成为可能。
Automation is best for well-defined, repetitive tasks. For example, if I had to reply to a letter or email every time someone wanted to read my list of recommended business books, I’d go insane. Fortunately, I can just put the list up on my website—every time someone requests the list, it’s delivered to them without any effort on my part. My reading list has been viewed by hundreds of thousands of readers from around the world, and Automation is what makes it possible.
找到一种使您的系统自动化的方法，您就可以通过复制和乘法打开扩展的大门，从而提高您为更多付费客户创造和交付价值的能力。
Find a way to Automate your system and you open the doors to Scale via Duplication and Multiplication, improving your ability to create and deliver value to more paying customers.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/automation/
自动化的悖论
The Paradox of Automation
一台机器可以完成五十个普通人的工作。没有机器可以完成一个非凡的人的工作。
One machine can do the work of fifty ordinary men. No machine can do the work of one extraordinary man.
——埃尔伯特·哈巴德，给加西亚的一封信的作者
—ELBERT HUBBARD, AUTHOR OF A MESSAGE TO GARCIA
自动化可能很棒，但它有非常重要的缺点值得理解。
Automation can be great, but it has very important drawbacks worth understanding.
想象一下，一条全自动生产线生产每台售价 200 美元的计算机处理器。人类操作员只需按下一个按钮，生产系统便开始每分钟生产 2,400 件成品。生活很好，对吧？
Imagine a fully Automated production line that makes computer processors that sell for $200 per unit. All the human operators have to do is push a button, and the production system starts cranking out 2,400 finished products per minute. Life is good, right?
是的，有一个非常重要的警告。想象一下，用于在硅晶片上钻孔的钻头出现偏差并开始在处理器内核的中间钻出微小的孔。系统每继续工作一秒钟，就有四十个芯片被毁掉。
Yes, with a very important caveat. Imagine that a drill used to bore holes in the silicon wafer becomes misaligned and starts drilling microscopic holes through the middle of the processor core. Every second the system keeps working, forty chips are ruined.
假设每个处理器的原材料成本为 20 美元——这意味着工厂每秒钟开始损失 800 美元，因为没有发现错误。系统每继续运行一分钟，公司就会损失 48,000 美元。这只是直接成本。如果您考虑到每个处理器的售价为 200 美元，公司每分钟损失 528,000 美元：直接成本为 48,000 美元，机会成本为 480,000 美元。
Assume each processor costs $20 in raw materials—that means the factory starts losing $800 every second the error isn’t found. Every minute the system keeps running, the company loses $48,000. And that’s just the direct cost. If you take into account that each processor would sell for $200, the company is losing $528,000 a minute: $48,000 in direct costs and $480,000 in Opportunity Costs.
听起来很牵强？想一想：2009 年底，丰田发现了数款畅销多年的热门车型的油门踏板存在重大问题。错误在丰田制造的每辆汽车中成倍增加，召回成本超过 50 亿美元。
Sound farfetched? Consider this: In late 2009, Toyota identified a major issue with the accelerator pedal in several popular vehicle models, which were top sellers for many years. The error was Multiplied across every vehicle Toyota made, and the recall cost more than $5 billion.
在召回之前，丰田被认为是世界上最好的汽车制造商。他们在许多方面仍然是，但他们的声誉和财务状况遭受了重大打击。如果允许代价高昂的错误乘以，即使是最好的也会倒下。
Before the recall, Toyota was considered the best automotive manufacturer in the world. They still are in many respects, but their Reputation and financial situation suffered a major blow. Even the best can fall if costly mistakes are allowed to Multiply.
这是自动化的悖论：自动化系统越高效，该系统的人工操作员的贡献就越重要。当错误发生时，操作员需要识别并解决问题或关闭系统——否则，自动化系统将继续增加错误。
Here’s the Paradox of Automation: the more efficient the Automated system, the more crucial the contribution of the human operators of that system. When an error happens, operators need to identify and fix the situation or shut the system down—otherwise, the Automated system will continue to Multiply the error.
伦敦大学学院心理学家 Lisanne Bainbridge 博士，是最早严格研究高效可靠系统的后果的人之一。2她是第一个发现并表达自动化系统“悖论”的人：高效的自动化系统减少了对人力的需求，但使人的参与变得更加重要。
Dr. Lisanne Bainbridge, a psychologist at University College London, was one of the first to rigorously study the ramifications of efficient and reliable systems.2 She was the first to identify and express the “paradox” of Automated systems: efficient Automated systems reduce the need for human effort but make human involvement even more critical.
高效的自动化使人变得更加重要，而不是更重要。
Efficient Automation makes humans more important, not less.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/paradox-of-automation/
自动化的讽刺
The Irony of Automation
总是会出现一系列意想不到的情况，即自动化不是为处理而设计的，就是其他无法预测的事情。随着系统可靠性的提高，检测错误并从错误中恢复的难度就越大。
There will always be a set of circumstances that was not expected, that the automation either was not designed to handle or other things that just cannot be predicted. As system reliability increases, the more difficult it is to detect the error and recover from it.
-博士。乔治梅森大学心理学教授 RAJA Parasuraman
—DR. RAJA PARASURAMAN, PROFESSOR OF PSYCHOLOGY AT GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY
高效的自动化 系统使熟练的人工干预对于防止错误放大至关重要，因此最好始终让熟练的操作员在场，对吧？
Efficient Automated Systems make skilled human intervention essential to prevent the Amplification of errors, so it’s best to keep skilled operators on hand at all times, right?
这说起来容易做起来难：企业不会支付高技能员工整天坐在房间里什么都不做，只要系统看起来可靠，他们就会这样做。即使他们这样做了，操作员也会将大部分时间花在无聊的头骨上。
That’s easier said than done: businesses don’t pay highly skilled employees to sit around in a room all day doing nothing, which is what they’ll be doing as long as the system appears to be reliable. Even if they do, the operators will spend most of their time being bored out of their skulls.
这就是自动化的讽刺之处：系统越可靠，操作员要做的事情就越少，因此他们在系统运行时对系统的关注就越少。还记得麦克沃斯钟和我们在讨论新颖性时对二战期间英国雷达操作员进行的警惕性研究吗？如果事物保持不变，人类就会感到无聊，系统越可靠，保持不变的事物就越多。
Here’s the Irony of Automation: the more reliable the system, the less human operators have to do, so the less they pay Attention to the system while it’s in operation. Remember the Mackworth Clock and the vigilance studies conducted on British radar operators in World War II from our discussion of Novelty? Humans get bored if things stay the same, and the more reliable the system, the more things stay the same.
可靠的系统往往会使操作员的感官迟钝，使他们很难注意到出现问题的时间——需要他们注意的时刻。因此，系统越可靠，出现问题时人类操作员注意到的可能性就越低——尤其是在错误很小的情况下。
Reliable systems tend to dull the operator’s senses, making it very difficult for them to notice when things go wrong—the moment when their Attention is required. As a result, the more reliable the system, the lower the likelihood that human operators will notice when something goes wrong—particularly if the error is small.
留得足够久，小错误可能成为“新常态”，这就是像丰田这样的公司最终召回 50 亿美元的原因。（顺便一提，不要陷入归因错误并认为丰田的工程师愚蠢或粗心——如果你依赖自动化系统，它可能会发生在你身上。）
Left long enough, small errors can become the “new normal,” which is how a company like Toyota ends up with a $5 billion recall. (By the way, don’t fall prey to Attribution Error and think that Toyota’s engineers were stupid or careless—if you rely on Automated systems, it could happen to you.)
避免重大自动化错误的最佳方法是严格、持续的抽样和测试。请记住，正常事故可能而且将会发生。如果您假设会出现错误并计划进行一系列测试以发现最严重的错误，您可以让您的系统操作员保持参与并增加快速发现重要错误的可能性。
The best approach to avoid major Automation errors is rigorous, ongoing Sampling and Testing. Remember, Normal Accidents can and will occur. If you assume that errors will be made and plan a battery of tests to find the most critical errors, you can keep your system operators engaged and increase the probability of finding important errors quickly.
让自动化系统的操作员全神贯注，他们将更有可能在错误发生时注意到。
Keep your Automated system’s operators mentally engaged, and they’ll be far more likely to notice when errors occur.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/irony-of-automation/
标准操作流程
Standard Operating Procedure
衡量成功的标准不是你是否有棘手的问题要处理，而是它是否是你去年遇到的同样问题。
The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it’s the same problem you had last year.
——约翰·福斯特·杜勒斯，美国前国务卿
—JOHN FOSTER DULLES, FORMER US SECRETARY OF STATE
当客户投诉或要求退款时，您会怎么做？当激光打印机的碳粉用完时会发生什么？如果经理不在城里并且出现紧急情况，谁来掌舵？
What do you do when a customer has a complaint or asks for a refund? What happens when you run out of toner for the laser printer? Who takes the helm if the manager is out of town and there’s an emergency?
标准操作程序 (SOP)是用于完成任务或解决常见问题的预定义流程。业务系统通常包括重复性任务，制定标准流程可以帮助您减少重新发明轮子的时间，将更多时间用于富有成效的工作。
A Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) is a predefined process used to complete a task or resolve a common issue. Business systems often include repetitive tasks, and having a standard process in place can help you spend less time reinventing the wheel and more time doing productive work.
明确定义的标准操作程序很有用，因为它们可以减少摩擦。预定义的 SOP 不会浪费宝贵的时间和精力来解决以前已经解决过很多次的问题，而是确保您花更少的时间来思考问题，而花更多的时间来增加价值。
Well-defined Standard Operating Procedures are useful because they reduce Friction. Instead of wasting valuable time and energy solving a problem that has already been solved many times before, a predefined SOP ensures that you spend less time thrashing and more time adding value.
标准操作程序也是使新员工或合作伙伴快速上手的有效方法。拥有 SOP 的中央来源可以帮助新员工或合作伙伴了解您如何通过非正式培训开展工作。将您的 SOP 存储在某种中央电子数据库中是最好的——它确保每个人都可以参考可用的最新程序。
Standard Operating Procedures are also effective ways to bring new employees or partners up to speed quickly. Having a central source of SOPs can help new employees or partners learn how you work with less formal training. Storing your SOPs in some sort of central electronic database is best—it ensures that everyone can reference the most up-to-date procedures available.
不要让您的标准操作程序陷入官僚主义。请记住，SOP 的目的是尽量减少完成任务或解决问题所需的时间和精力。如果 SOP 需要付出努力却没有提供价值，那就是摩擦。
Don’t let your Standard Operating Procedures lapse into bureaucracy. Remember, the purpose of an SOP is to minimize the amount of time and effort it takes to complete a task or solve a problem. If the SOP requires effort without providing value, it’s Friction.
为获得最佳结果，请定期审查您的 SOP——每两到三个月一次是理想的。如果您在 SOP 中发现过时、浪费或不必要的工作，请进行更改。您和您的客户都不会受到不必要的繁文缛节的约束。
For best results, review your SOPs on a periodic basis—once every two to three months is ideal. If you find outdated, wasteful, or unnecessary work in your SOPs, change them. Neither you nor your customers are served by unnecessary red tape.
为重要的重复性任务创建标准操作程序，您会发现您的工作效率飞速增长。
Create Standard Operating Procedures for important recurring tasks, and you’ll see your productivity skyrocket.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/standard-operating-procedures/
检查清单
Checklist
无论您多么专业，精心设计的清单都可以改善结果。
No matter how expert you may be, well-designed checklists can improve outcomes.
——史蒂文·莱维特，《恶魔经济学》的合著者
—STEVEN LEVITT, COAUTHOR OF FREAKONOMICS
想要确保每次都正确完成一项重要任务？创建清单。
Want to make sure an important task is done correctly every single time? Create a checklist.
清单是用于完成特定任务的外部化的、预定义的标准操作程序。创建清单非常有价值，原因有二。首先，清单将帮助您为尚未正式化的流程定义一个系统——一旦创建了清单，就更容易看到如何改进或自动化系统。其次，将核对清单作为日常工作的一部分可以帮助确保您不会忘记处理在事情变得繁忙时可能被忽视的重要步骤。
A Checklist is an Externalized, predefined Standard Operating Procedure for completing a specific task. Creating a Checklist is enormously valuable for two reasons. First, Checklisting will help you define a system for a process that hasn’t yet been formalized—once the Checklist has been created, it’s easier to see how to improve or Automate the system. Second, using Checklists as a normal part of working can help ensure that you don’t forget to handle important steps that may be overlooked when things get busy.
飞行员有详细的起飞和着陆检查表是有原因的：跳过一个步骤很容易，但会对机上的每个人产生重大影响。即使是拥有数十年飞行经验的飞行员也总是使用检查表来确保一切都按正确的顺序正确完成。因此，飞机失事很少见——乘坐商业航空公司的飞机比开车更安全。
Pilots have detailed Checklists for takeoff and landing for a reason: skipping a step is easy but can have major consequences for everyone on board. Even pilots with decades of flying experience always use Checklists to make sure everything is done right and in the proper sequence. As a result, plane crashes are rare—it’s safer to travel via a commercial airline than it is to drive.
即使是简单的流程也可以从系统化和检查表的使用中受益。2001 年，Peter Pronovost 博士对清单的影响进行了一项研究，该研究在 Atul Gawande 博士的The TheChecklist Manifesto和 Gawande 发表在纽约客的一篇文章中。3这项研究是在底特律的一家医院进行的，该医院的 10 天静脉输液管感染（一种代价高昂且危及生命的疾病）发生率在全国最高。Pronovost 的目标是确定使用清单是否会降低感染率。
Even simple processes can benefit from Systemization and the use of Checklists. In 2001, Dr. Peter Pronovost conducted a study on the effects of Checklisting, which was described in detail in Dr. Atul Gawande’s The Checklist Manifesto and in an article Gawande published in the New Yorker.3 The study was conducted in a hospital in Detroit that had the highest rate of ten-day IV line infections (a costly and life-threatening condition) in the country. Pronovost’s objective was to determine whether or not using Checklists would reduce the rate of infections.
这是干预的全部内容：每当医生插入静脉输液管时，他们都会被指示使用以下检查表。
Here’s the entirety of the intervention: whenever a doctor inserted an IV line, they were instructed to use the following Checklist.
第一步：用肥皂洗手。
Step 1: Wash hands with soap.
第 2 步：用氯己定消毒剂清洁患者的皮肤。
Step 2: Clean the patient’s skin with chlorhexidine antiseptic.
第 3 步：将无菌单盖在整个患者身上。
Step 3: Put sterile drapes over the entire patient.
第 4 步：戴上无菌帽子、口罩、手套和长袍。
Step 4: Wear a sterile hat, mask, gloves, and gown.
第 5 步：一旦 IV 线进入，将无菌敷料放在导管部位。
Step 5: Put a sterile dressing over the catheter site once the IV line is in.
这些步骤并不复杂。事实上，许多医生抵制这项研究，因为他们认为，鉴于他们是训练有素的专家，被迫对如此简单的程序使用检查表是一种侮辱。更侮辱人的是，如果医生不使用检查表，护士长有权阻止医生——这种不寻常的角色互换让许多医生感到愤怒。
These steps aren’t complicated. In fact, many doctors resisted the study, since they felt that being forced to use a Checklist for such a simple procedure was insulting, given their status as highly trained specialists. Even more insulting, the head nurse was empowered to stop the doctor if they weren’t using the Checklist—an unusual role reversal that had many doctors fuming.
然而，这项为期两年的研究结果令人震惊：10 天的静脉输液管感染率从 11% 下降到 0%，并为医院节省了超过 200 万美元的相关费用。事实证明，在忙碌、压力大的环境中，即使是最基本的常识性程序也很容易忘记。
Nevertheless, the results of this study over two years were astounding: the ten-day IV line infection rate dropped from 11 percent to 0 percent and saved the hospital more than $2 million in related costs. As it turns out, forgetting even basic, commonsense procedures is easy in a busy, stressful Environment.
清单可以大大提高你完成高质量工作的能力，以及你委派工作的能力。通过花时间描述和跟踪您的进度，您可以减少出现重大错误和疏忽的可能性，并防止与反复弄清楚如何完成相同任务相关的摩擦。此外，一旦您的清单完成，您就可以将其用作系统完全或部分自动化的基础，这将使您能够花时间做更重要的事情。
Checklisting can produce major improvements in your ability to do quality work, as well as your ability to delegate work. By taking the time to describe and track your progress, you reduce the likelihood of major errors and oversights and prevent Friction associated with figuring out how to complete the same task over and over again. In addition, once your Checklist is complete you can use it as the basis for full or partial Automation of the system, which will allow you to spend time doing more important things.
为获得最佳结果，请为每个业务的五个部分创建明确的清单，然后确保每次都遵循它们。
For best results, create explicit Checklists for the Five Parts of Every Business, then make sure they’re followed every single time.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/checklisting/
过程开销
Process Overhead
不要相信以三倍的速度完成不必要的事情是一种进步。
Do not believe that it is very much of an advance to do the unnecessary three times as fast.
——彼得·德鲁克，现代管理理论之父
—PETER DRUCKER, FATHER OF MODERN MANAGEMENT THEORY
好东西可能太多了。
It’s possible to have too much of a good thing.
流程不是免费的：系统中的每个程序或检查表都需要付出时间、精力和注意力的代价。Process Overhead是在内部流程而不是其他创造价值的活动上花费的系统容量。
Processes aren’t free: every procedure or Checklist in a system has a cost that is paid in time, energy, and Attention. Process Overhead is the amount of system capacity spent on internal processes instead of other value-creating activities.
业务系统通常有大量的流程开销：强制性状态会议、报告、规则和文书工作。采用这些做法是有正当理由的：交流信息很重要也很有价值，跟踪共同目标的进展情况和通过遵循标准操作程序消除可预防的错误也很重要。当所有这些单独的实践积累到它们代表了组织的大部分能力和努力的程度时，问题就出现了。
Business systems often have significant amounts of Process Overhead: mandatory status meetings, reports, rules, and paperwork. These practices are adopted for valid reasons: communicating information is important and valuable, as is tracking progress toward shared Goals and eliminating preventable errors by following Standard Operating Procedures. The problem appears when all of those separate practices Accumulate to the point where they represent the bulk of the organization’s capacity and effort.
流程有一个收益递减点，因此识别和消除不再需要的流程很有用。流程不应该通过自上而下的授权来定义或仅仅因为它们存在而被维护。最好让您的流程保持灵活性，并期望它们会随着时间的推移而改变或变得不必要。一旦一个流程的使用时间超过了它的效用，停止就是有价值和必要的。
Processes have a point of Diminishing Returns, so it’s useful to identify and eliminate processes that are no longer necessary. Processes should not be defined via top-down mandate or maintained just because they exist. It’s best to keep your processes flexible and expect that they’ll change or become unnecessary over time. Once a process outlives its usefulness, Cessation is valuable and warranted.
最有资格创建和维护流程的人是最接近工作的人：给予他们必要的灵活性和控制权，以更新或删除不再服务于预期目的的流程。
The people who are most qualified to create and maintain processes are the people closest to the work: give them the flexibility and control necessary to update or remove processes that no longer serve the intended purpose.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/process-overhead/
戒烟
Cessation
没有什么比有效地做根本不应该做的事更无用的了。
There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all.
——彼得·德鲁克，现代管理理论之父
—PETER DRUCKER, FATHER OF MODERN MANAGEMENT THEORY
有时，改进系统的最佳方法是停止做太多事情。
Sometimes the best way to improve a system is to stop doing so much.
停止是停止做适得其反的事情的选择。由于Absence Blindness，我们倾向于尝试通过做某事来改进系统——什么都不做会“感觉不对”。这并不意味着什么都不做是一个糟糕的策略：它通常更有效。
Cessation is the choice to stop doing something that’s counterproductive. Due to Absence Blindness, we’re predisposed to attempt to improve a system by doing something—it “feels wrong” to do nothing. That doesn’t mean that doing nothing is a bad strategy: it’s often more effective.
在《一根稻草的革命》中，福冈正信写下了他对自然农业的实验，其中包括让自然顺其自然，并尽可能少地进行干预。当大多数农场在农业中引入化学品和机械时，福冈却无所事事——收获高产和增加土壤肥力的回报。以下是他对戒烟的优点所说的话：
In The One-Straw Revolution, Masanobu Fukuoka wrote about his experiments with natural farming, which involved letting nature take its course and intervening as little as possible. While most farms were introducing chemicals and machinery into agriculture, Fukuoka was doing nothing—and reaping the rewards of high yields and increased soil richness. Here’s what he had to say about the virtues of Cessation:
人在他的篡改中做错了事，不去弥补，当不好的结果累积起来的时候，就竭力改正。当纠正措施看起来成功时，他们开始将这些措施视为出色的成就。人们一遍又一遍地这样做。就好像一个傻瓜踩坏了他屋顶的瓦片一样。等天开始下雨，天花板开始腐烂时，他急忙爬上去修补破损，最后庆幸自己奇迹般地解决了问题。
Human beings with their tampering do something wrong, leave the damage unrepaired, and when the adverse results accumulate, work with all their might to correct them. When the corrective actions appear to be successful, they come to view these measures as splendid accomplishments. People do this over and over again. It is as if a fool were to stomp on and break the tiles of his roof. Then when it starts to rain and the ceiling begins to rot away, he hastily climbs up to mend the damage, rejoicing in the end that he has accomplished a miraculous solution.
福冈没有试图做太多，而是只做了必要的事情。结果，他的田地成为该地区最高产的田地之一。
Instead of trying to do too much, Fukuoka only did what was necessary. As a result, his fields were among the most productive in the area.
戒烟需要勇气。什么都不做通常是不受欢迎或令人不快的，即使什么都不做是正确的解决方案。例如，“定价泡沫”通常是由政府干预某些市场造成的，其具有人为降低某些行为成本的二阶效应，导致投机活动猖獗。当现实出现并且泡沫“破灭”时，就像 2000 年的互联网公司和 2008 年的房地产市场一样，政府什么都不做在政治上是不受欢迎的，即使做某事是造成这种情况的首要原因。通常情况下，政府的行为会在几年后引发另一个更大的泡沫。
Cessation takes guts. It’s often unpopular or unpalatable to do nothing, even if doing nothing is the right solution. As an example, “pricing bubbles” are often caused by government intervention in certain markets, which has the Second-Order Effect of artificially decreasing the costs of certain actions, leading to rampant speculation. When reality sets in and the bubble “pops,” as it did with dot-com companies in 2000 and the housing market in 2008, it’s politically unpopular for the government to do nothing, even though doing something is what caused the situation in the first place. More often than not, the government acts, which causes another, bigger bubble a few years later.
解雇客户、辞去工作、停产产品或退出无法成功进入的市场都是艰难的决定，但从长远来看，这些决定可能会让你处于更好的位置。
Firing customers, quitting your job, discontinuing a product, or pulling out of a market you can’t succeed in are all tough decisions, but these decisions may put you in a better position in the long run.
做某事并不总是最好的行动方案。考虑什么都不做。
Doing something is not always the best course of action. Consider doing nothing instead.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/cessation/
弹力
Resilience
将系统置于恒定的紧身衣中可能会导致脆弱性演变。
Placing a system in a straightjacket of constancy can cause fragility to evolve.
—CS HOLLING，生态学家
—C. S. HOLLING, ECOLOGIST
海龟并不是动物王国中最性感的生物。他们跑不快。他们不能飞。他们没有大而锋利的牙齿或爪子。他们不能吹嘘自己看起来很危险，也不能用致命的毒液毒害他们的敌人。与老虎或猎鹰的原始力量相比，乌龟相当蹩脚。
Turtles aren’t the sexiest creatures in the animal kingdom. They can’t run fast. They can’t fly. They don’t have big, sharp teeth or claws. They can’t puff themselves up to look menacing or poison their enemies with deadly venom. Compared to the raw power of a tiger or a falcon, turtles are rather lame.
海龟确实有各种各样的保护策略——它们可以游泳、使用伪装、用下巴咬合，如果其他方法都失败了，它们会缩回壳里等待威胁过去。
What turtles do have is a variety of protective strategies—they can swim, use camouflage, snap with their jaws, and, if all else fails, retract into their shell and wait for the threat to pass.
动物王国其他地方的生物如果被捕食者逼入绝境，就会遇到大麻烦。海龟有战斗的机会——它们获胜是因为它们是大自然的装甲坦克。他们还可以吃很多不同的东西，并在困难时期进入冬眠状态。这就是为什么他们活得这么久。
Creatures elsewhere in the animal kingdom are in big trouble if they’re cornered by a predator. Turtles have a fighting chance—they win because they’re the armored tanks of nature. They can also eat many different things and go into hibernation when times get tough. That’s why they live so long.
另一方面，老虎依靠它们的力量、力量和速度来追捕猎物。时机成熟时，老虎是丛林之王。如果猎物变得稀少，或者由于年龄或受伤而失去狩猎能力，死亡将毫不留情地夺走他们——没有第二次机会。
Tigers, on the other hand, rely on their strength, power, and speed to chase down their prey. When times are good, tigers are the kings of the jungle. If prey becomes scarce or they lose their hunting prowess due to age or injury, death takes them without mercy—no second chances.
商业世界需要的是多龟少虎。
What the business world needs is more turtles and fewer tigers.
世界是一个根本上不确定的地方。意想不到的事情发生了——有好有坏。你永远不知道大自然母亲、幸运女神或饥饿的掠食者何时会决定今天不是你的日子。
The world is a fundamentally Uncertain place. Unexpected things happen—some good, some bad. You never know when Mother Nature, Lady Luck, or a hungry predator will decide that today is not your day.
弹性是商业中被低估的品质。无论是从字面上还是从比喻上来说，拥有应对生活抛给您的任何事情的韧性和灵活性是可以拯救您的皮肤的重要资产。您根据情况变化调整策略和策略的能力可能是生存与灾难之间的区别。
Resilience is an underrated quality in business. Having the toughness and flexibility to handle anything life throws at you is a major asset that can save your skin—literally and metaphorically. Your ability to adjust your strategy and tactics as conditions Change can be the difference between survival and disaster.
如果您仅根据吞吐量评估系统，那么弹性永远不会是“最佳的” 。灵活性总是有代价的。乌龟的壳很重——没有它它可以移动得更快。然而，放弃它会使乌龟在移动速度不够快时变得脆弱。为了多赚几美元，许多企业用弹性来换取短期结果——并付出高昂的代价。
Resilience is never “optimal” if you evaluate a system solely on Throughput. Flexibility always comes at a price. A turtle’s shell is heavy—it could move faster without it. Giving it up, however, would leave the turtle vulnerable in the moments when moving a little faster just isn’t fast enough. In an effort to chase a few more dollars, many businesses trade Resilience for short-term results—and pay a hefty price.
大型投资银行就是一个典型的例子。手头保留现金储备以应对意外情况已经变得“极端保守”和“低效”——随着时间的推移，多次利用整个公司以每季度多挤出几美分的每股收益，这已经成为一种“最佳实践”，留下该业务容易受到收入非常小的下降的影响。
The big investment banks are a classic example. Keeping cash reserves on hand to handle the unexpected has become “ultraconservative” and “inefficient”—it’s become a “best practice” to Leverage the entire company many times over times to squeeze out a few more cents in earnings per share each quarter, leaving the business vulnerable to a very small decline in revenues.
在没有现金储备、没有保险和高负债的情况下经营一家企业可能会在几个月或几个季度内提高您的回报，但一旦您的收入下降哪怕一点点，或者有人决定起诉该企业，您就完蛋了。
Operating a business with no cash reserves, no insurance, and high levels of debt may improve your returns for a few months or quarters, but the moment your revenues decline even by a little or someone decides to sue the business, you’re sunk.
杠杆作用就像火箭燃料一样——取决于它的使用方式，它可以将您的业务推向令人眼花缭乱的高度，或者使整个业务爆炸式增长。商学院教授的许多高级金融操纵策略都隐含地以弹性换取账面回报——曾经成功的企业在困难时期倒闭，为此付出了代价。
Leverage works just like rocket fuel—depending on how it’s used, it can propel your business to dizzying heights or make the entire operation explode. Many of the advanced financial manipulation tactics taught in business schools implicitly trade Resilience for on-paper returns—and once-successful businesses pay the price by going out of business when times get tough.
为意外做好准备会让你更有弹性。在个人层面上，投资家庭应急/急救箱、汽车套件以及食物和水等额外资源并不是偏执狂——这些用品是聪明人的廉价保险。购买保险和为意外事件建立现金储备也是如此。您可能永远不需要它们，但如果您需要它们，您会很高兴。
Preparing for the unexpected makes you more Resilient. On a personal level, investing in a home emergency/first aid kit, car kit, and extra resources like food and water isn’t paranoid—supplies like these are cheap insurance for the intelligent. The same goes for purchasing Insurance and building up cash reserves for unexpected events. You may never need them, but you’ll be glad they’re there if you do.
以下是使企业具有弹性的原因：
HERE’S WHAT MAKES A BUSINESS RESILIENT:
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低（最好为零）未偿债务
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Low (preferably zero) outstanding debt
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管理费用、固定成本和运营费用低
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Low overhead, fixed costs, and operating expenses
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大量现金储备以备不时之需
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Substantial cash reserves for unexpected contingencies
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多个独立的产品/行业/业务线
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Multiple independent products/industries/lines of business
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能够很好地处理许多责任的灵活工人/员工
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Flexible workers/employees who can handle many responsibilities well
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没有单点故障
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No single points of failure
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所有核心流程的故障保险/备份系统
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Fail-safes/backup systems for all core processes
规划弹性和绩效是良好管理的标志。韧性并不性感，因为它的好处会受到缺席失明的影响。但是，它可以在困难时期挽救您的生皮。
Planning for Resilience as well as performance is the hallmark of good management. Resilience is not sexy, because the benefits suffer from Absence Blindness. It can, however, save your hide when times get tough.
少像老虎那样思考，而多像乌龟那样思考，您的企业将能够承受几乎任何事情。
Think less like a tiger and more like a turtle and your business will be able to withstand pretty much anything.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/resilience/
故障保险
Fail-safes
“总是”和“从不”这两个词你应该永远记住永远不要使用。
“Always” and “never” are two words that you should always remember never to use.
——WENDELL JOHNSON，心理学家和言语病理学的先驱
—WENDELL JOHNSON, PSYCHOLOGIST AND PIONEER OF SPEECH PATHOLOGY
每个星期三中午，一台发电机在我长大的房子外面启动。如果一切顺利，它会运行十分钟，然后关闭直到下一个测试周期，准备好在停电时启动.
Every Wednesday at noon, a generator kicks on outside of the house I grew up in. If all goes well, it’ll run for ten minutes, then turn off until the next testing cycle, ready to spring into action if the power goes out.
父亲曾当过消防员和急救医护人员，把“有备无患”提炼成一门高超的艺术。发电机设计为在房屋的主要电力出现故障时启动，如果发生断电，可在几秒钟内接管房屋的电力需求。发电机通过车库后面的丙烷罐供电，丙烷罐有足够的燃料让发电机运转一周。如果暴风雨导致该地区断电，爸爸会做好应对的准备。
My father once worked as a firefighter and emergency medical technician, and has refined “being prepared” into a high art. The generator is designed to turn on the moment the primary electricity to the house fails, taking over the house’s electrical demands in seconds if an outage occurs. The generator is fed via a propane tank behind the garage, which has enough fuel to keep the generator running for a week. If a storm knocks out power to the area, Dad is prepared to handle it.
爸爸的准备对我产生了影响。现在我们住在科罗拉多山区，我们必须为我们的汽车在偏远或寒冷的地方抛锚的可能性做好准备，我们不能依靠 AAA（或手机覆盖）来拯救我们。
Dad’s preparedness rubbed off on me. Now that we live in the mountains of Colorado, we have to be prepared for the possibility of our car breaking down somewhere remote or cold and we can’t rely on AAA (or cell phone coverage) to save us.
凯尔西经常取笑我为我们的车辆准备了额外的衣服、睡袋、雪鞋和卫星驱动的个人定位信标，但我不介意。如果发生什么事，我们很高兴我们做好了准备——我认为设备投资是一种廉价、耐用的保险政策。
Kelsey often makes fun of me for stocking our vehicles with extra clothing, sleeping bags, snowshoes, and satellite-driven personal locator beacons, but I don’t mind. If something happens, we’ll be glad we were prepared—I consider the investment in equipment a cheap, durable Insurance policy.
故障安全是一种备份系统，旨在防止或允许从主系统故障中恢复。如果主系统以某种方式出现故障，设计良好的故障保险可以防止系统意外崩溃。您可以在任何需要一致性能的地方找到备份系统。
A Fail-safe is a backup system designed to prevent or allow recovery from a primary system failure. If the primary system fails in some way, well-designed Fail-safes can keep the system from collapsing unexpectedly. You can find backup systems anywhere consistent performance is critical.
备受瞩目的百老汇演出中的演员都有替补。如果“演出必须继续进行”，知道您将始终有替代任何不能表演的演员是值得的。大多数节目甚至都有一些“摇摆不定”的演员——随时准备扮演任何角色的表演者。
Actors in high-profile Broadway shows have understudies. If “the show must go on,” it pays to know you’ll always have a replacement for any actor who can’t perform. Most shows even have a few “swing” actors—performers who are ready to play any role at a moment’s notice.
外部硬盘驱动器备份重要的计算机数据。如果您计算机中的硬盘驱动器崩溃，您仍然可以通过备份驱动器访问数据，因此您不会丢失所有内容。一些企业甚至采取预防措施，将备份驱动器存储在异地，以防发生火灾或自然灾害。
External hard drives back up critical computer data. If the hard drive in your computer crashes, you can still access the data via the backup drive, so you won’t lose everything. Some businesses even take the precaution of storing backup drives off-site in case of fire or natural disaster.
飞机有一个系统可以感应机舱压力故障，该系统会部署连接在氧气罐上的面罩。如果飞机的增压舱因为某种原因发生故障，乘客不会失去知觉——这确实是一件好事。
Airplanes have a system that senses a failure in cabin pressure, which deploys face masks attached to an oxygen tank. If the airplane’s pressurized cabin fails for some reason, the passengers won’t lose consciousness—a very good thing indeed.
故障保险效率不高，因为您正在将时间和资源投入到您希望永远不会使用的系统中。从一个角度来看，备份系统和保险可以被视为浪费金钱——为什么要把宝贵的资源花在你希望永远不需要的东西上呢？
Fail-safes are not efficient, in the sense that you’re investing time and resources in a system you hope you’ll never use. Backup systems and Insurance, from one perspective, can be seen as a waste of money—why spend valuable resources on something you hope you’ll never need?
原因如下：当您需要故障安全装置时，再开发已经太晚了。为了有效，必须在需要之前开发故障保险。如果您等到需要时才开发备份系统，那么要有所作为就太晚了。在您的房子被烧毁之前，支付房主保险可能会让人觉得是浪费金钱。如果你等到坏事发生后再买保险，那就太晚了。
Here’s why: by the time you need a Fail-safe, it’s too late to develop one. In order to be effective, Fail-safes must be developed before you need them. If you wait to develop backup systems until you need them, it’s too late to make a difference. Paying for homeowners’ insurance can feel like a waste of money until your house burns down. If you wait to buy Insurance until something bad happens, it’s already too late.
尽量将故障安全系统和主系统分开。人们在银行租用保险箱的原因之一是为了防止某些物品在发生火灾或被盗时丢失——如果房屋发生意外，保险箱中的物品仍然可以。将数据备份到异地数据中心的做法具有相同的目的：如果企业的主要计算机出现问题，数据在另一个位置仍然是安全的。
Try to separate your Fail-safe and primary system as much as possible. One of the reasons people rent safe deposit boxes in banks is to protect certain items from loss in the event of fire or theft—if something happens to the house, the items in the safe deposit box will still be okay. The practice of backing up data to an off-site data center serves the same purpose: if something happens to the business’s primary computers, the data is still safe in another location.
与主系统高度相互依赖的故障保险可能会带来额外的风险。您可以做的最糟糕的事情之一就是让您的备份系统成为您试图保护的系统的一部分。例如，如果发电机故障连锁到房子的主要电力系统并切断电源，那对我父亲就没有多大好处。如果安装自动计算机备份系统有删除所有原始文件的风险，那么它对您没有任何好处。
Fail-safes that are highly Interdependent with the primary system can introduce additional risks. One of the worst things you can do is make your backup system a part of the system you’re trying to protect. For example, it wouldn’t do my father much good if a failure in the generator cascaded to the house’s primary electrical system and knocked out the power. An Automated computer backup system doesn’t do you any good if installing it risks deleting all of your original files.
尽可能不要有单一的临界故障点。如果您的系统依赖于关键输入或流程才能运行，那么最好针对这些输入不可用或这些流程中断的情况进行规划。如果主系统出现故障，您会怎么做？
As much as possible, never have a single critical point of failure. If your system relies on critical inputs or processes in order to function, it’s a good idea to plan for situations where those inputs aren’t available or those processes are disrupted. What would you do if the primary system failed?
提前计划为所有关键系统开发故障保险，您将使您的系统尽可能地具有弹性。
Plan in advance to develop Fail-safes for all critical systems, and you’ll make your system as Resilient as you can.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/fail-safe/
压力测试
Stress Testing
不犯错误不是人的力量；但智者和善者从他们的错误和错误中学习未来的智慧。
To make no mistakes is not in the power of man; but from their errors and mistakes the wise and good learn wisdom for the future.
—PLUTARCH，一世纪的希腊历史学家和散文家
—PLUTARCH, FIRST-CENTURY GREEK HISTORIAN AND ESSAYIST
假设您已经开发出您认为是健壮、有弹性的系统，但您希望确保您的准备工作有效。您将如何进行测试？
Let’s say you’ve developed what you believe is a robust, Resilient system, but you want to ensure that your preparations work. How would you go about Testing it?
压力测试是通过模拟特定环境条件来识别系统边界的过程。压力测试不是停留在系统工程师模式，而是将您的思维定势转变为“恶魔模式”。打破你建造的东西需要什么？
Stress Testing is the process of identifying the boundaries of a system by simulating specific Environmental conditions. Instead of staying in systems-engineer mode, Stress Testing inverts your mind-set to “demon mode.” What would it take to break what you’ve built?
在个人 MBA 的早期，每次我推出新版本的推荐阅读列表时，4我的网络服务器都会在荣耀的火焰中崩溃——系统无法跟上所有试图访问的人网站。我升级到几个不同的系统，但每次都不够。
In the early days of the Personal MBA, every time I launched a new version of my recommended reading list,4 my web server would go down in a blaze of glory—the system couldn’t keep up with all of the people trying to visit the website. I upgraded to several different systems, but each time, it wasn’t enough.
在我认真对待压力测试之前，我一直遇到服务器问题。我没有等待导致我的网站崩溃的流量涌入，而是开始故意“破坏”我的网站，然后尝试不同的方法使系统在压力下更具弹性。
I continued having server issues until I got serious about Stress Testing. Instead of waiting for an influx of traffic that would cause my site to go down, I started “breaking” my website on purpose, then trying different approaches to make the system more Resilient under stress.
使用自动化工具，5我模拟了大量访问者同时访问我的网站。该工具每秒增加请求我的网站的虚拟访问者数量，然后跟踪我的网站响应每个请求所花费的时间。随着请求量的增加，我网站的性能下降，直到服务器出现故障。
Using an Automated tool,5 I simulated a huge number of visitors hitting my website at the same time. The tool increased the number of virtual visitors requesting my website every second, then tracked how long my website took to respond to each request. As the volume of requests increased, my site’s performance decreased until the server failed.
使用我从压力测试中收集的数据，我对我网站的基础设施和系统做了几项重大改进。现在，成千上万的人可以同时访问我的网站而不会影响性能——这是一个巨大的进步。
Using the data I collected from Stress Testing, I made several major improvements to my website’s infrastructure and systems. Now, thousands of people can visit my site at once without affecting performance—a huge improvement.
压力测试可以帮助您更多地了解系统的工作原理。如果你在制造行业，你可以模拟一个意外的一万件订单——你能完成吗？如果你在做客户支持，你可以模拟大量涌入的问题或投诉——你会如何处理？您的测试能力仅受可用时间和想象力的限制——让您内心的恶魔疯狂，然后在您发现的任何重大问题影响到真正的客户之前解决它们。
Stress Testing can help you learn more about how your system works. If you’re in the manufacturing business, you could simulate an unexpected order of ten thousand units—could you fulfill it? If you’re doing customer support, you could simulate a massive influx of questions or complaints—how would you handle it? Your ability to test is only limited by your available time and imagination—let your inner demon run wild, then fix any major problems you find before they affect real customers.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/stress-testing/
情景规划
Scenario Planning
预见到的危险可以避免一半。
A danger foreseen is half avoided.
——英语谚语
—ENGLISH PROVERB
正如我们在本书中多次讨论的那样，没有人可以预测明天会发生什么，更不用说十年后了。这是一个问题，当您的计划和目标取决于您控制点之外的事物。你可以做些什么来为不确定的未来做准备？
As we’ve discussed many times in this book, no one can predict what will happen tomorrow, let alone ten years from now. That’s a problem when your plans and Goals depend on things outside of your Locus of Control. What can you do to prepare for an Uncertain future?
情景规划是系统地构建一系列假设情况的过程，然后创建如果这些情况发生时您会做什么的心理模拟。你可能不是预言家，但思想实验给了你一个强大的能力：想象可能发生的事情，然后弄清楚如果它们发生了你会怎么做。情景规划是应用于重大决策的详细、彻底和系统的思想实验。
Scenario Planning is the process of systematically constructing a series of hypothetical situations, then creating a Mental Simulation of what you would do if they occurred. You may not be a seer, but Thought Experiments give you a powerful capability: imagining things that might occur, then figuring out what you’d do if they did. Scenario Planning is detailed, thorough, and systematic Thought Experiments applied to major decisions.
情景规划总是从一个简单的问题开始：“如果……我会怎么做？” . . ？“假设”部分称为“反事实”，它会启动您的计划大脑，帮助您想象可能的反应。通过写下你在那种情况下所有可能的行动方案，可以针对你能想象到的任何情况制定几种反应。
Scenario Planning always starts with a simple question: “What would I do if . . . ?” The “what if” part is called a “counterfactual,” and it’s what kicks your planning brain into gear, helping you imagine possible responses. By writing down all of your potential courses of action in that circumstance, it’s possible to develop several responses to any situation you can imagine.
情景规划是有效战略的精髓。试图根据对利率、油价或股票价值的预测来采取行动是愚蠢的游戏。情景规划不是试图以 100% 的准确度预测未来，而是可以帮助您为许多不同的可能未来做好准备。您的业务将变得更加灵活和有弹性，从而提高您改变和适应不断变化的世界的能力，而不是死板地只关注一种选择。
Scenario Planning is the essence of effective strategy. Trying to base your actions on predictions of interest rates, oil prices, or stock values is a fool’s game. Instead of trying to predict the future with 100 percent accuracy, Scenario Planning can help you prepare for many different possible futures. Instead of rigidly focusing on only one option, your business will become more flexible and Resilient, improving your ability to Change and adapt to a changing world.
大多数大型企业使用情景规划作为一种称为“对冲”的做法的基础：购买各种形式的保险以降低不利未来事件的风险。例如，制造商关心油价，因为他们增加了进口原材料和向客户运送成品的成本，这两者都会降低他们的利润率。通过购买称为“期货”的金融工具，企业可以在石油价格上涨时赚钱，这有助于抵消石油价格上涨时他们的主要业务可能遭受的损失。
Most large businesses use Scenario Planning as the basis of a practice called “hedging”: purchasing various forms of Insurance to reduce the risk of unfavorable future events. For example, manufacturers care about oil prices because they increase the cost of importing raw materials and shipping finished products to their customers, both of which decrease their Profit Margins. By purchasing financial instruments called “futures,” the businesses can make money if the price of oil goes up, which helps to offset the losses they would incur in their primary line of business if oil prices increase.
情景规划很容易跳过，尤其是当您已经有很多工作要做时。您花在情景规划上的时间可能是您建立业务所花的最宝贵的时间，但如果您正在努力保持头脑清醒，那么很容易忽视这一点。定期的、不可商量的时间退后一步并为未来做计划总是值得的——不要跳过它。
Scenario Planning is easy to skip, particularly if you already have a lot of work to do. The time you spend in Scenario Planning can be some of the most valuable time you spend building your business, but it’s easy to overlook if you’re struggling to keep your head above water. Regular, nonnegotiable time to step back and plan for the future is always time well spent—don’t skip it.
不要浪费时间去预测一个不可知的未来——构建最有可能发生的情况，并计划在它们发生时您将做什么，并且您可能会为发生的任何事情做好准备。
Don’t waste time trying to predict an unknowable future—construct the most likely scenarios and plan what you’ll do if they occur and you’ll likely be prepared for whatever happens.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/scenario-planning/
探索/开发
Exploration / Exploitation
我们必须通过猜测来征服真相，或者根本不用猜测。
We must conquer the truth by guessing, or not at all.
—CS 皮尔斯，十九世纪哲学家和数学家
—C. S. PEIRCE, NINETEENTH-CENTURY PHILOSOPHER AND MATHEMATICIAN
找出哪些变化或投资会给你带来最好的结果是概率论的一个主要研究领域，“多臂强盗”问题可以很好地说明这一点。
Figuring out which changes or investments will give you the best outcomes is a major area of study in probability theory, which is best illustrated through the “multi-armed bandit” problem.
想象一下走进赌场玩老虎机——“独臂强盗”。有一排机器，当你拉动杠杆时，每台机器都有不同的概率支付奖励。有些机器比其他机器支付更多——有些多得多——但你不确定哪台机器的回报最高。6个
Imagine walking into a casino to play the slot machines—“one-armed bandits.” There’s a row of machines, each of which has a different probability of paying a reward when you pull the lever. Some machines pay more—some much more—than the others, but you’re not sure which machine has the highest return.6
如果你事先知道最好的机器，你就会一直拉动那个杠杆，但你不知道哪个杠杆是最好的，也没有人会告诉你。发现最佳杠杆的唯一方法是开始随机拉动杠杆，跟踪哪些有效，哪些无效，并分析结果。
If you knew the best machine in advance, you’d just pull that lever all the time, but you don’t know which lever is best, and no one is going to tell you. The only way to discover the best lever is to start pulling levers at random, keep track of what works and what doesn’t, and analyze the results.
这种方法有一个重要的内在权衡：当您选择拉动以前没有拉过的杠杆时，您会获得有关该特定选项的新信息，而这些信息对于找到最佳的整体机器很有价值。然而，拉动测试较少的杠杆会产生机会成本：您没有拉动您目前认为会带来最佳回报的杠杆。存在这样的风险，即你拉动杠杆的回报将低于你拉动当前最佳杠杆所带来的回报，这是一个非常真实的成本。
There’s an important Trade-off inherent in this approach: when you choose to pull a lever you haven’t pulled before, you get new information about that particular option, and that information is valuable in finding the best overall machine. Pulling the less tested lever, however, has an Opportunity Cost: you’re not pulling the lever you currently think will give you the best return. There’s a risk that the lever you pull will return less than what you would’ve brought in pulling the current optimal lever, and that’s a very real cost.
信息是有价值的，但它是有代价的：试验有时是一种不正当投资。这种洞察力是解决强盗问题的关键。
Information is valuable, but it comes at a price: experimentation is sometimes a form of Malinvestment. That insight is the key to solving the bandit problem.
无需深入数学，老虎机问题的解决方案就很容易理解：最佳策略是从一段探索期开始，您可以随机拉动杠杆并收集信息。一旦您获得了有关哪些有效，哪些无效的更多信息，您就可以转向花费大部分时间来拉动迄今为止发现的最佳杠杆（开发），但您会继续探索其他选项，以防您当前的最佳选择不是现有的最佳选择。
Without going into the math, the solution to the bandit problem is easy to understand: the optimal strategy is to start with a period of Exploration, where you pull levers at random and gather information. Once you have more information about what works and what doesn’t, you shift to spending the majority of your time pulling the best lever you’ve discovered so far (Exploitation), but you keep exploring the other options in case your current best option isn’t the very best that exists.
重要的是要强调最优策略的最后一部分：探索阶段永远不会停止。即使您确定已经找到了最佳选择，您也永远不会停止试验，因为通过试验收集的信息总是很有价值的。打败强盗的唯一方法就是不断尝试新事物。
It’s important to emphasize the last part of the optimal strategy: the Exploration phase never stops. Even if you’re certain you’ve found the best possible option, you never stop experimenting because the information you gather by experimenting is always valuable. The only way to beat the bandit is to keep trying new things.
在现实世界的情况下，你比这个思想实验中的情况有一个主要的优势：其他人正在玩同样的游戏，你可以观察他们做什么来收集关于什么有效和什么无效的信息，而不必尝试相同的方法。从他人的行为中学习并观察他们的结果是收集有用信息的有效方式。
In real-world circumstances, you have a major advantage over the situation in this Thought Experiment: other people are playing the same game, and you can watch what they do to gather information about what works and what doesn’t without having to try same approach. Learning from the actions of others—and observing their results—is an efficient way to gather useful information.
将这种方法扩展到日常决策非常简单：尽可能多地进行实验，尽可能多地进行变化，并密切关注其他人正在进行的实验。当您发现似乎可以产生您想要的结果的事情时，请花更多的时间和精力去做。随着您的努力产生结果并且您对给定选项的确定性增加，请增加对该选项的投资。你尝试的越多，你学到的越多，你拥有的信息和选择就越多，你就越有可能发现能够产生你想要的结果的东西。
Extending this approach to day-to-day decisions is straightforward: experiment as much as possible, with as much variation as you can, and pay close attention to the experiments other people are doing. As you find things that appear to produce the outcomes you want, spend more time and energy doing them. As your efforts produce results and your certainty in a given option increases, increase your investment in that option. The more you experiment, the more you learn, the more information and options you’ll have at your disposal, and the better the chance you’ll discover the things that will produce the outcomes you desire.
如果您从不尝试任何新事物，就无法做出使事情变得更好的积极发现。开始尝试，永不止步。
You can’t make positive discoveries that make things better if you never try anything new. Start experimenting and never stop.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/explore-exploit/
可持续增长周期
Sustainable Growth Cycle
胜利后，系紧头盔上的带子。
After victory, tighten the straps on your helmet.
—德川家康，17 世纪初日本德川幕府的创始人
—TOKUGAWA IEYASU, FOUNDER OF THE TOKUGAWA SHOGUNATE OF EARLY SEVENTEENTH-CENTURY JAPAN
假设任何系统都可以无限制地增长是错误的。系统往往有一个自然大小，超过这个大小会导致很多问题。需要消除系统中失控的元素。
It’s a mistake to assume any system can grow without limit. Systems tend to have a natural size, and exceeding this size can cause many problems. Elements of a system that are out of control need to be eliminated.
以细胞生长为例。您体内的细胞往往会生长到一定大小，并以确保新细胞取代死亡细胞的速度繁殖。当这些比例处于平衡状态时，您的身体就会运作良好。当细胞生长或繁殖失控时，这种情况可能会威胁到整个系统的存在。需要去除癌细胞以确保身体的健康。
Take cell growth, for example. The cells in your body tend to grow to a certain size and to multiply at a rate that ensures new cells replace cells that die. When these proportions are in balance, your body works quite well. When cells grow or multiply out of control, the situation can threaten the existence of the entire system. Cancerous cells need to be removed to ensure the health of the body.
企业和生物有机体有许多共同点：它们由许多相互关联的部分和系统组成，这些部分和系统会随着时间的推移而变化和发展。如果每个业务的五个部分失控或彼此不成比例，这种情况可能会威胁到组织的健康。
Businesses and biological organisms have many things in common: they’re made up of many interrelated parts and systems that change and grow over time. If the Five Parts of Every Business grow out of control or out of proportion to one another, the situation can threaten the health of the organization.
可持续增长周期是我在能够年复一年增长而没有重大困难的企业中注意到的一种模式。这个周期分为三个不同的阶段：扩展、维护和整合。
The Sustainable Growth Cycle is a pattern I’ve noticed in businesses that are able to grow year after year without major difficulties. This cycle has three distinct phases: expansion, maintenance, and consolidation.
在扩张阶段，公司专注于成长。创建并测试新报价。探索新市场。建立新的业务部门并配备人员，并制定未来计划。收集关于什么有效的早期数据供以后使用。
In an expansion phase, the company is focused on growing. New offers are created and tested. New markets are explored. New business units are built and staffed, and future plans are created. Early data about what works is collected for later use.
在维护阶段，公司专注于执行当前计划。业务的营销、销售和价值交付部分正在如火如荼地进行，重点是充分挖掘当前业务结构的潜力。系统已到位以确保正确执行。
In a maintenance phase, the company is focused on executing the current plan. The marketing, sales, and value-delivery parts of the business are in full swing, and emphasis is placed on fully exploring the potential of the current business structure. Systems are put in place to ensure proper execution.
在整合阶段，公司专注于分析。详细检查有关业务绩效的信息，以试图找出有效的方法和无效的方法。不起作用的东西会被削减或淘汰，而起作用的东西会得到更多的资源。
In a consolidation phase, the company is focused on analysis. Information about the performance of the business is examined in detail in an attempt to figure out what’s working and what’s not. Things that aren’t working are cut back or eliminated, and things that are working are given more resources.
想想植物栽培：最好的园丁让植物生长，确保它们有足够的资源茁壮成长，然后砍掉没有的植物。这个循环一季又一季地重复。每个周期都是必不可少的。
Think of plant cultivation: the best gardeners allow plants to grow, ensure they have enough resources to thrive, then cut back the plants that don’t. This cycle repeats, season after season. Every cycle is essential.
当他们的业务似乎达到“稳定期”并且增长似乎停止时，许多企业家会感到沮丧。花时间在维护或整合上似乎是一种浪费，或者是商业理念中的一个缺陷。事实并非如此：这些阶段对于确保业务成功是必要的，并且应该得到尊重。
Many entrepreneurs become frustrated when their business seems to hit a “plateau” and growth appears to stop. Spending time on maintenance or consolidation seems like a waste, or a flaw in the business idea. That’s not the case at all: these phases are necessary to ensure the business succeeds, and they should be respected.
专注于扩张但忽视维护和整合的企业将经历商业上的癌性增长。部分业务将失去控制，与它们对业务健康的贡献相比，消耗了太多的时间、精力和资源。将探索新的机会，同时忽略或遗忘已证实的机会。
A business that fixates on expansion but shortchanges maintenance and consolidation will experience the commercial equivalent of cancerous growth. Parts of the business will grow out of control, consuming too much time, energy, and resources compared to what they contribute to the health of the business. New opportunities will be explored while proven opportunities are ignored or forgotten.
维护和整合对于使系统达到平衡是必要的。一旦系统开始运转，增长周期就会开始，然后重复这个过程。
Maintenance and consolidation are necessary to bring the system into balance. Once the system is humming along, the growth cycle tends to kick in, and the process repeats.
健康的商业周期通常在扩张、维护和整合之间进行。无论您处于周期的哪一部分，重要的是要认识到它对企业的健康发展是必要和必要的。通过给予每个周期适当的时间和关注，您将确保业务的长期成功。
A healthy business cycles among expansion, maintenance, and consolidation often. No matter which part of the cycle you’re in, it’s important to recognize that it’s necessary and essential to the health of the business. By giving each cycle the appropriate time and attention, you’ll ensure the long-term success of the business.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/sustainable-growth-cycle/
中道
The Middle Path
任何艺术的大师都避免太多和太少。他们寻找平均值并选择它。
A master in any art avoids what is too much and what is too little; they search for the mean and choose it.
——亚里士多德，公元前四世纪的希腊哲学家
—ARISTOTLE, FOURTH-CENTURY-BCE GREEK PHILOSOPHER
做生意从来都不容易——它既是一门科学，也是一门艺术。
Business is never easy—it’s an art as much as a science.
中道是在太少和太多之间不断变化的平衡点——恰到好处。没有人能告诉你什么是中道——你必须走这条路才能知道，而且它一直在变化。在不确定性中取得平衡是一个称职的商业专家和一个伟大的商业专家之间的区别。
The Middle Path is the ever-changing balance point between too little and too much—just enough. No one can tell you what the Middle Path is—you have to be walking the path to know, and it changes all the time. Getting the balance right in the midst of Uncertainty is the difference between a competent business professional and a great one.
处理任何事情的最佳方法几乎总是介于“太少”和“太多”之间。就像烹饪一样，“商业食谱”只能教你这么多。你可能知道原料、技术和工具，但做一道菜仍然需要注意力、努力和品味。
The best approach to anything almost always lies somewhere between “too little” and “too much.” Just as in cooking, “business recipes” can only teach you so much. You may know the ingredients, the techniques, and the tools, but cooking a dish still requires attention, effort, and taste.
没有人“想通了”。没有人确定某件事会奏效，或者完全不担心事情不会按计划进行。在这个世界上经历过最大成功的人是那些尽可能接受不确定性和恐惧、从他们的经验中学习并不断尝试新事物的人。
No one has it “all figured out.” No one is certain that something will work or has a complete lack of fear that things won’t work out as planned. The people who experience the most success in this world are the people who accept the Uncertainty and fear as best they can, learn from their experiences, and keep trying new things.
尝试找到中道，然后尽你所能坚持下去。找到合适的平衡点，你就能完成任何事情。
Try to find the Middle Path, then stay on it as best you can. Find the right balance, and you can accomplish anything.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/middle-path/
实验心态
The Experimental Mind-set
学习翻转事物的唯一方法就是翻转它们！
The only way you learn to flip things is just to flip them!
—JULIA CHILD，世界知名的厨师，在她的电视节目中将土豆煎饼扔到地板上之后
—JULIA CHILD, WORLD-RENOWNED CHEF, AFTER FLOPPING A POTATO PANCAKE ONTO THE FLOOR DURING HER TV SHOW
在改进您自己或您的业务时，通常不清楚哪种方法会产生预期的结果。这就是实验思维模式派上用场的地方。
When improving yourself or your business, it’s often not clear what approach will create the intended result. That’s where the Experimental Mind-set comes in handy.
不断的实验是你确定什么会产生你想要的结果的唯一方法。通常，学习事物的最佳（或唯一）方法是投入并尝试。一开始，您可能会不知所措，但没有比这更快的方法来了解什么是有效的了。一旦你下定决心去探索某件事，你会比畏缩在场边学得更快。
Constant experimentation is the only way you can identify what will produce the result you desire. Often, the best (or only) way to learn things is to jump in and try. At the beginning, you may be in over your head, but there’s no faster way to learn what works. Once you’re committed to exploring something, you’ll learn faster than if you’d cowered on the sidelines.
你从不顺利的事情中学到最多。只要您的错误不会要了您的命，关注那些不起作用的东西就可以为您提供有用的信息，您可以使用这些信息来发现什么是有用的。所有的失败都是暂时的——你在这个过程中学到的东西总是会帮助你前进。
You learn the most from what doesn’t go well. As long as your mistakes don’t kill you, paying Attention to what doesn’t work can give you useful information you can use to discover what does. All failures are temporary—what you learn in the process always helps you move forward.
实验是通过游戏来学习。没有必要把自己塑造成一个一想到最轻微的错误就会畏缩的“严肃的商人”。在你的职业生涯中，你会犯成千上万的错误，这没关系。每个实验都会教给你一些新东西，你学到的每一个新课程都会增加你完成伟大事情的能力。
Experimentation is learning through play. There’s no need to build yourself up as a “serious businessperson” who cringes at the thought of the slightest mistake. You’ll make thousands of mistakes over the course of your career, and that’s okay. Every experiment teaches you something new, and every new lesson you learn increases your capability to accomplish great things.
实验是过上令人满意的、富有成效的、充实的生活的本质。你越是培养一种实验性的心态，你就会学到越多，你就会取得更多的成就。
Experimentation is the essence of living a satisfying, productive, fulfilling life. The more you cultivate an Experimental Mind-set, the more you learn and the more you’ll achieve.
REFERENCE LINK: personalmba.com/experimental-mindset/
不是“结束”
NOT “THE END”
一本真正的好书比阅读它更能教我。我必须尽快放下它，开始靠它的暗示生活。我从阅读开始的东西，我必须通过表演来完成。
A truly good book teaches me better than to read it. I must soon lay it down, and commence living on its hint. What I began by reading, I must finish by acting.
——亨利·大卫·梭罗
—HENRY DAVID THOREAU
我的许多读者和客户问我：
Many of my readers and clients ask me:
“这个商业教育的东西很棒，但我什么时候能完成？”
“This business education stuff is great, but when will I be done?”
错误的问题，蚱蜢。自我教育，无论是关于商业还是其他任何事情，都是一个永无止境的过程。你永远不会说，“好吧，我完成了——我不需要再学习了。” 您遇到的每个新概念都是通向数以千计其他探索机会的门户。
Wrong question, Grasshopper. Self-education, whether it’s about business or anything else, is a never-ending process. There’s never a point where you’ll say, “Okay, I’m done—no more learning for me.” Every new concept you come across is a gateway to thousands of other opportunities for exploration.
这就是自我教育如此有趣和有益的原因：总有新东西要学。
That’s what makes self-education so fun and rewarding: there’s always something new to learn.
在东方哲学中，道的意思是“道路”或“道路”——你正在进行的旅程。道无始无终——它就是如此。自学任何事物都是道——这个过程是永无止境的。旅程本身就是奖励。
In Eastern philosophy, Tao means “way” or “path”—a journey you’re in the process of undertaking. Tao has no beginning and no end—it just is. Educating yourself about anything is a Tao—there’s no end to the process. The journey itself is the reward.
即使是像沃伦巴菲特这样的赚钱艺术大师，也总是在寻找新的东西来学习。在内布拉斯加大学林肯分校的学生接受采访时，当被问及他希望拥有什么超能力时，巴菲特回答说：“我希望能够阅读得更快。” 巴菲特每天所做的大部分工作是阅读财务报告和学习新概念，寻找增加公司价值的新方法。
Even masters of the art of moneymaking like Warren Buffett are always looking for new things to learn. When asked in an interview with students from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln about what superpowers he’d like to have, Buffett answered: “I’d like to be able to read faster.” Most of what Buffett does on a daily basis is read financial reports and learn new concepts, looking for new ways to increase the value of his company.
即使是地球上最富有的人也有需要改进和探索的地方。正是这种持续不断的好奇心让他们取得了成功。
Even the wealthiest people on earth have things to improve and more to explore. That ongoing curiosity is what made them successful in the first place.
在您的道路上会有里程碑：完成一本书、获得新技能、开展业务、完成销售。然而，最终，你会发现有一条新的路要走，旅程还会继续。
There will be milestones along your path: completing a book, acquiring a new skill, launching a business, closing a sale. Eventually, however, you’ll find that there’s a new path for you to take, and the journey will continue.
你可以成长多少永远没有限制。
There’s never a limit to how much you can grow.
既然您已经阅读了本书，我建议您访问 personalmba.com 并订阅个人 MBA 电子邮件列表。我会定期修改我推荐的阅读清单并发表新的研究成果。订阅是免费的，我很乐意让您及时了解我发现的最有用的商业信息。
Now that you’ve read this book, I recommend visiting personalmba .com and subscribing to the Personal MBA email list. I revise my recommended reading list and publish new research on a regular basis. There’s no cost to subscribe, and I’d be happy to keep you up to date with the most useful business information I discover.
我想向您说几句来自《福布斯》杂志创始人 BC Forbes 的至理名言，他在 1917 年写了一篇名为“成功的关键”的文章。我经常参考它，发现它很好地提醒了商业和生活的全部内容：
I’d like to leave you with a few words of wisdom from B. C. Forbes, the founder of Forbes magazine, who wrote an essay in 1917 called “Keys to Success.” I refer to it often and find that it’s a great reminder of what business and life are all about:
你的成功取决于你。
Your success depends on you.
你的幸福取决于你。
Your happiness depends on you.
你必须掌握自己的方向。
You have to steer your own course.
你必须塑造自己的命运。
You have to shape your own fortune.
你必须教育自己。
You have to educate yourself.
你必须做你自己的想法。
You have to do your own thinking.
你必须凭自己的良心生活。
You have to live with your own conscience.
你的思想是你的，只能由你使用。
Your mind is yours and can be used only by you.
你一个人来到这个世界上。
You come into this world alone.
你一个人去坟墓。
You go to the grave alone.
在这两者之间的旅程中，您独自面对内心的想法。
You are alone with your inner thoughts during the journey between.
你自己做决定。
You make your own decisions.
您必须遵守您行为的后果。. .
You must abide by the consequences of your acts . . .
你一个人就可以调节你的习惯，成就或毁掉你的健康。
You alone can regulate your habits and make or unmake your health.
你一个人就可以吸收精神上的东西和物质上的东西。. .
You alone can assimilate things mental and things material . . .
你必须终生进行自己的同化。
You have to do your own assimilation all through life.
你可以被老师教，但你必须吸收知识。他无法将它输入你的大脑。
You can be taught by a teacher, but you have to imbibe the knowledge. He cannot transfuse it into your brain.
你一个人就可以控制你的心智细胞和脑细胞。
You alone can control your mind cells and your brain cells.
你可能在你面前传播了历代的智慧，但除非你吸收它，否则你不会从中受益；没有人能强迫它进入你的颅骨。
You may have spread before you the wisdom of the ages, but unless you assimilate it you derive no benefit from it; no one can force it into your cranium.
你一个人可以移动你自己的腿。
You alone can move your own legs.
你一个人可以移动你自己的手臂。
You alone can move your own arms.
您一个人可以利用自己的双手。
You alone can utilize your own hands.
你一个人可以控制自己的肌肉。
You alone can control your own muscles.
你必须在身体上和比喻上站起来。
You must stand on your feet, physically and metaphorically.
你必须采取你自己的步骤。
You must take your own steps.
你的父母不能进入你的皮肤，控制你的精神和身体机器，并使你有所作为。
Your parents cannot enter into your skin, take control of your mental and physical machinery, and make something of you.
你不能为你儿子打仗；他必须为自己做。
You cannot fight your son’s battles; that he must do for himself.
你必须成为自己命运的船长。
You have to be captain of your own destiny.
你必须通过自己的眼睛看。
You have to see through your own eyes.
你必须用你自己的耳朵。
You have to use your own ears.
你必须掌握自己的才能。
You have to master your own faculties.
你必须解决你自己的问题。
You have to solve your own problems.
你必须形成自己的理想。
You have to form your own ideals.
你必须创造你自己的想法。
You have to create your own ideas.
你必须选择你自己的演讲。
You must choose your own speech.
你必须控制自己的舌头。
You must govern your own tongue.
你的真实生活就是你的想法。
Your real life is your thoughts.
你的想法是你自己创造的。
Your thoughts are your own making.
你的性格是你自己的杰作。
Your character is your own handiwork.
你一个人可以选择进入它的材料。
You alone can select the materials that go into it.
你一个人可以拒绝不适合进入它的东西。
You alone can reject what is not fit to go into it.
你是你自己个性的创造者。
You are the creator of your own personality.
除了你自己的手，你不会因为任何人的手而蒙羞。
You can be disgraced by no man’s hand but your own.
除了你自己，没有人可以提升和支持你。
You can be elevated and sustained by no man but yourself.
你必须写你自己的记录。
You have to write your own record.
你必须建造自己的纪念碑——或者自己挖坑。
You have to build your own monument—or dig your own pit.
你在做什么？
Which are you doing?
我希望你喜欢这本书并觉得它有用——如果你有，请把它传给可能从中受益的朋友和同事更多关于业务。如果您有任何问题或意见，请随时与我们联系 — 您可以通过josh@personalmba.com与我联系。
I hope you’ve enjoyed this book and found it useful—if you have, please pass it along to friends and colleagues who might benefit from learning more about business. If you have questions or comments, don’t hesitate to reach out—you can contact me at josh@personalmba.com.
感谢您的阅读，并祝您在迷人且瞬息万变的商业世界中一路顺风。
Thanks for reading, and best wishes on your journey through the fascinating and ever-changing world of business.
玩得开心！
Have fun!
致谢
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
对凯尔西：我们做到了。感谢您坚定不移的爱、信任和支持。
To Kelsey: we did it. Thank you for your unwavering love, confidence, and support.
致爸爸妈妈：感谢你们在我这么小的时候就教我读书。我对世界的好奇心和敞开心扉都归功于你的榜样。
To Mom and Dad: thanks for teaching me to read at such an early age. I owe my curiosity about the world and open heart to your example.
致 Seth Godin：感谢您的启发，感谢您以各种不同寻常的方式改变了我的生活。
To Seth Godin: thanks for the inspiration, and for changing my life in all sorts of remarkable ways.
致查理芒格：感谢你与世界分享你所知道的；因为它，我是一个更好的人。
To Charlie Munger: thanks for sharing what you know with the world; I’m a better person because of it.
Todd Sattersten 和 Jack Covert：感谢你们将我介绍给 Portfolio 的团队——没有你们的慷慨，这本书就不会存在。
To Todd Sattersten and Jack Covert: thanks for introducing me to the team at Portfolio—without your generosity, this book wouldn’t exist.
致 Ben Casnocha 和 Ramit Sethi：感谢你们鼓励我参与这个项目，审阅草稿，向我介绍 Lisa，并以你们的榜样激励我。
To Ben Casnocha and Ramit Sethi: thanks for encouraging me to take on this project, reviewing rough drafts, introducing me to Lisa, and inspiring me with your example.
感谢 Carlos Miceli，他协助创建了本书所附的网站。
To Carlos Miceli, who assisted in creating the website that accompanies this book.
致 Lisa DiMona：您的声誉先于您，原因不难看出。你的热情、奉献精神和耐心是世界一流的。感谢你所做的一切。
To Lisa DiMona: your reputation preceded you, and it’s not difficult to see why. Your enthusiasm, dedication, and patience are world-class. Thanks for everything you do.
感谢阿德里安·扎克海姆 (Adrian Zackheim)：感谢您给一个有着疯狂想法的年轻人机会，并感谢他发表了伟大的作品。您出版的书改善了我的生活，我很高兴能够为这项事业做出贡献。我希望它能卖一百万。
To Adrian Zackheim: thanks for taking a chance on a young man with a crazy idea, and for publishing great work. The books you’ve published have improved my life, and I’m happy to be able to contribute to the cause. I hope it sells a million.
致 David Moldawer：我期待一位聪明、经验丰富且坚韧的编辑。你不仅如此：一个值得信赖的朋友。感谢您敏锐的眼光和敏锐的智慧：您离开这本书比发现它时要好得多。
To David Moldawer: I expected an intelligent, experienced, and tough editor. You’re all that and more: a trusted friend. Thanks for your keen eye and sharp wit: you left this book much better than you found it.
致 Will Weisser、Maureen Cole、Richard Lennon、Joseph Perez、Oliver Munday、Jaime Putorti、Noirin Lucas、Michael Burke 以及 Portfolio 幕后的每个人：许多年前，我向自己保证，如果我曾经决定写一本书，如果我能与最好的出版商合作，我只会与出版商合作。你们将这本书推向市场的经验和专业精神令人震惊——我找不到比这更好的团队了。
To Will Weisser, Maureen Cole, Richard Lennon, Joseph Perez, Oliver Munday, Jaime Putorti, Noirin Lucas, Michael Burke, and everyone behind the scenes at Portfolio: many years ago, I promised myself that if I ever decided to write a book, I’d only work with a publisher if I could work with the best. Your experience and professionalism in taking this book to market is astounding—I couldn’t ask for a better team.
致 Eric Gonzalez、Enoch Ko、Steven McGuinnity、Peter Millonig、Denver Rix、Marina Murray、Joseph Magliocco、Tim Shadel、Joel Masters、Sweeney Amenya、Tony Guntrip、Amy Hay、Eric Rogstad 和 Tudor F. Dumitrescu：感谢您的帮助识别和更正以前版本中的错误。感谢您敏锐的眼光、对细节的关注以及改进建议。
To Eric Gonzalez, Enoch Ko, Steven McGuinnity, Peter Millonig, Denver Rix, Marina Murray, Joseph Magliocco, Tim Shadel, Joel Masters, Sweeney Amenya, Tony Guntrip, Amy Hay, Eric Rogstad, and Tudor F. Dumitrescu: thanks for your help in identifying and correcting errors in previous editions. I appreciate your sharp eyes, attention to detail, and suggestions for improvement.
特别感谢 Chase Karpus、Niki Papadopoulos、David Moldawer、Molly Lindley Pisani、Lisa DiMona 和 Kelsey Kaufman 在编辑和协助准备 2020 年版出版方面提供的帮助，并感谢 Pete Garceau 更新的封面设计。
Special thanks to Chase Karpus, Niki Papadopoulos, David Moldawer, Molly Lindley Pisani, Lisa DiMona, and Kelsey Kaufman for their editorial help and assistance in preparing the 2020 edition for publication, and to Pete Garceau for the updated cover design.
致我的客户和读者：没有你们，就没有这本书。感谢您的支持、反馈和鼓励——我希望您发现此资源有用，并完成您设定的所有目标。
To my clients and readers: without you, this book wouldn’t exist. Thanks for your support, feedback, and encouragement—I hope you find this resource useful and that you accomplish everything you set out to achieve.
附录 A
APPENDIX A
如何继续您的商业学习
HOW TO CONTINUE YOUR BUSINESS STUDIES
我们根据我们读过的每一本书来写作。
We write by the light of every book we ever read.
——理查德·派克，作家
—RICHARD PECK, AUTHOR
仅次于知道某事的最好的事情就是知道在哪里可以找到它。
The next best thing to knowing something is knowing where to find it.
——塞缪尔·约翰逊，散文家
—SAMUEL JOHNSON, ESSAYIST
本书是对大量商业文献的高度概括：它是您商业研究的开始，而不是结束。如果您觉得本书有用，我建议您阅读您认为最有趣和最有帮助的领域的其他书籍。
This book is a high-level overview of a large body of business literature: it’s the beginning of your business studies, not the end. If you found this book useful, I recommend reading additional books in the areas you found most interesting and helpful.
最好的起点是我在 personalmba.com/best-business-books/ 上在线发布的个人 MBA 推荐阅读清单
The best place to start is the Personal MBA recommended reading list, which I publish online at personalmba.com/best-business-books/
如果你想在我更新阅读列表时收到通知，请在该页面或joshkaufman.net/newsletter注册电子邮件更新。
If you’d like to be notified when I update the reading list, sign up for email updates on that page or at: joshkaufman.net/newsletter.
快乐的读！
Happy reading!
附录 B
APPENDIX B
四十九个问题来改善你的结果
FORTY-NINE QUESTIONS TO IMPROVE YOUR RESULTS
好的问题可以帮助您的大脑以不同的方式看待世界。通过在脑海中保留一个问题并思考可能的答案，您可以找到意想不到的路径，从现在的位置到达想要的位置。
Good questions help your brain look at the world in a different way. By holding a question in your mind and pondering potential answers, you can find unexpected paths to get from where you are now to where you want to be.
下面是我几年前为自己创建的问题列表。这份清单的目的是帮助我弄清楚我想改善我的生活，无论是作为一个人还是作为一个专业人士。这些问题帮助我弄清楚在我职业生涯中特别困难的时期我是谁以及我想要什么，我希望它们能像帮助我一样帮助你。
Below is a list of questions I created for myself a few years ago. The intent of the list was to help me figure out what I wanted to improve about my life, both as a person and as a professional. These questions helped me figure out who I was and what I wanted during a particularly difficult time in my career, and I hope they help you as much as they’ve helped me.
我是否善用自己的身体？
DO I USE MY BODY WELL?
-
我目前的饮食质量如何？
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What is the quality of my current diet?
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我睡眠充足吗？
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Do I get enough sleep?
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我每天的精力管理得当吗？
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Am I managing my energy well each day?
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我如何处理日常压力？
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How well am I managing daily stress?
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我的姿势和风度是否良好？
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Do I have good posture and poise?
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我可以做些什么来提高我观察周围世界的能力？
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What can I do to improve my ability to observe the world around me?
我知道我想要什么吗？
DO I KNOW WHAT I WANT?
-
什么成就会让我兴奋？
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What achievements would make me excited?
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我每天想体验什么样的存在状态？
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What states of being do I want to experience each day?
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我的优先事项和价值观是否明确？
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Are my priorities and values well-defined?
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我是否有能力快速、自信地做出决定？
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Am I capable of making decisions fast, and with confidence?
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我是否将注意力集中在我想要什么而不是我不想要什么上？
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Do I focus my attention on what I want versus what I don’t want?
我害怕什么？
WHAT AM I AFRAID OF?
-
我是否已经为我所坚持的恐惧创建了一份诚实而完整的清单？
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Have I created an honest and complete list of the fears I’m holding on to?
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我有没有面对过每一个恐惧，想象一下如果它真的发生了我会如何处理？
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Have I confronted each fear to imagine how I would handle it if it came to pass?
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我有能力识别和纠正自我限制吗？
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Am I capable of recognizing and correcting self-limitation?
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我是否适当地突破了自己的极限？
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Am I appropriately pushing my own limits?
我的头脑清晰且专注吗？
IS MY MIND CLEAR AND FOCUSED?
-
我是否将我的想法具体化（写下或记录下来）？
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Do I externalize (write or record) what I’m thinking about?
-
我是否很容易捕捉到我的想法？
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Am I making it easy to capture my thoughts as I have them?
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我现在关注什么？
-
What has my attention right now?
-
我是否经常问自己适当的指导性问题？
-
Am I regularly asking myself appropriate guiding questions?
-
我是将大部分时间花在专注于一项任务上，还是在多项任务之间切换？
-
Do I spend most of my time focusing on a single task, or am I toggling among multiple tasks?
-
我是否花足够的时间反思我的目标、项目和进展？
-
Do I spend enough time reflecting on my goals, projects, and progress?
我自信、放松且富有成效吗？
AM I CONFIDENT, RELAXED, AND PRODUCTIVE?
-
我找到适合我的计划方法了吗？
-
Have I found a planning method that works for me?
-
我“组织得够好”吗？
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Am I “just organized enough”?
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我有最新的项目和活动任务列表吗？
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Do I have an up-to-date list of my projects and active tasks?
-
我是否定期审查我的所有承诺？
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Do I review all of my commitments on a regular basis?
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我是否定期、真正地从工作中休息一下？
-
Do I take regular, genuine breaks from my work?
-
我在养成积极的习惯吗？
-
Am I creating positive habits?
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我正在努力摆脱非生产性习惯吗？
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Am I working to shed nonproductive habits?
-
我愿意告诉别人“不”吗？
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Am I comfortable with telling other people “no”?
我如何表现最好？
HOW DO I PERFORM BEST?
-
我特别喜欢什么？
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What do I particularly enjoy?
-
我特别擅长做什么？
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What am I particularly good at doing?
-
我发现什么样的环境最有利于做好工作？
-
What environment(s) do I find most conducive to doing good work?
-
我怎样才能学得最好？
-
How do I tend to learn best?
-
我更喜欢如何与他人合作和交流？
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How do I prefer to work with and communicate with others?
-
目前是什么阻碍了我？
-
What is currently holding me back?
我需要什么才能快乐和满足？
WHAT DO I NEED TO BE HAPPY AND FULFILLED?
-
我目前如何定义“成功”？
-
How am I currently defining “success”?
-
是否有另一种定义“成功”的方式让我觉得更令人满意？
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Is there another way of defining “success” that I may find more fulfilling?
-
我多久将自己与他人的看法进行比较？
-
How often do I compare myself with my perceptions of other people?
-
我量入为出吗？
-
Am I living within my means?
-
如果我只能拥有一百样东西，它们会是什么？
-
If I could only own one hundred things, what would they be?
-
我有能力区分必需品和奢侈品吗？
-
Am I capable of separating necessity and luxury?
-
在我的生活和工作中，我对什么感到感激？
-
What do I feel grateful for in my life and work?
拿起笔记本，留出一个小时，花时间自己回答这些问题。让它变得有趣：在您喜欢的餐厅享用美味的午餐或晚餐，边吃边写。当支票到达时，您将对如何改变您的生活或事业有很多新想法更好的。
Pick up a notebook, set aside an hour, and spend time with yourself answering these questions. Make it fun: treat yourself to a nice lunch or dinner at a restaurant you like and write as you eat. By the time the check arrives, you’ll have more than a few new ideas about how to change your life or business for the better.
笔记
NOTES
简介：为什么要读这本书？
INTRODUCTION: WHY READ THIS BOOK?
1 . 在第一版和第二版中，这段题词被误认为是拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生的作品。特别感谢博客 Quote Investigator 的 Garson O'Toole 追踪原始来源（“The Man Who Tries Methods, Ignosing Principles, Is Sure to Have Trouble,” July 17, 2015, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/ 07/17/方法/）。
1. This epigraph was misattributed to Ralph Waldo Emerson in the first and second editions. Special thanks to Garson O’Toole of the blog Quote Investigator for tracing the original source (“The Man Who Tries Methods, Ignoring Principles, Is Sure to Have Trouble,” July 17, 2015, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/07/17/methods/).
2 . Seth Godin，“好消息和坏消息”，Seth 的博客（博客），2005 年 3 月 14 日，https://seths.blog/2005/03/good_news_and_b/。
2. Seth Godin, “Good News and Bad News,” Seth’s Blog (blog), March 14, 2005, https://seths.blog/2005/03/good_news_and_b/.
3 . Josh Kaufman，“个人 MBA 推荐阅读清单：99 本最佳商业书籍” ，个人 MBA，https://personalmba.com/best-business-books/。
3. Josh Kaufman, “The Personal MBA Recommended Reading List: The 99 Best Business Books,” The Personal MBA, https://personalmba.com/best-business-books/.
4 . Warren Buffett，“Graham-and-Doddsville 的超级投资者”，Hermes，1984 年 5 月 17 日，https: //www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/superinvestors 。
4. Warren Buffett, “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville,” Hermes, May 17, 1984, https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/superinvestors.
5 . 珍妮特·洛 (Janet Lowe)，该死的权利：伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司亿万富翁查理·芒格的幕后花絮（新泽西州霍博肯：John Wiley & Sons, Inc.，2003 年），75。
5. Janet Lowe, Damn Right: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2003), 75.
6 . 杰出投资者文摘（纽约州纽约市：杰出投资者文摘公司），1997 年 12 月 29 日。
6. Outstanding Investor Digest (New York, NY: Outstanding Investor Digest, Inc.), December 29, 1997.
7 . 彼得·考夫曼 (Peter D. Kaufman) 编辑，穷查理宝典：查尔斯·T·芒格 (Charles T. Munger) 的机智与智慧，第 3 版。（弗吉尼亚州弗吉尼亚海滩：唐宁公司出版社，2005 年），64。
7. Peter D. Kaufman, ed., Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger, 3rd ed. (Virginia Beach, VA: The Donning Company Publishers, 2005), 64.
8 . 参见 Francesca Di Meglio 的“大学：大投资，微不足道的回报”，彭博商业周刊，2010 年 6 月 28 日，https: //www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-06-28/college-big-investment-paltry -returnbusinessweek-business-news-stock-market-and-financial-advice。这不仅仅是商学院的问题：它是整个大学的问题。自 1980 年代以来，大学学费每年增长 7% 到 14%，而工资却停滞不前，因此大学教育的投资回报率下降了。
8. See “College: Big Investment, Paltry Return” by Francesca Di Meglio, Bloomberg Businessweek, June 28, 2010, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-06-28/college-big-investment-paltry-returnbusinessweek-business-news-stock-market-and-financial-advice. This is not just a problem with business schools: it’s a problem with college in general. College tuition has increased 7 to 14 percent annually since the 1980s, while salaries have stagnated, so the return on investment of college education has decreased.
9 . 比尔·盖茨没有大学毕业，也没有 MBA 学位。大多数成功和富有的人都没有上过商学院——他们是从创业开始的，然后自学。
9. Bill Gates didn’t graduate from college and doesn’t have an MBA. Most successful and wealthy individuals didn’t go to business school—they started as entrepreneurs and taught themselves.
10。大学入学与成功研究所，“Student Debt and the Class of 2017: 13th Annual Report”，2018 年 9 月，https://ticas.org/files/pub_files/classof2017.pdf。
10. The Institute for College Access & Success, “Student Debt and the Class of 2017: 13th Annual Report,” September 2018, https://ticas.org/files/pub_files/classof2017.pdf.
11 . 国家教育统计中心，“研究生贷款债务趋势”，NCES 博客，2018 年 8 月 2 日，https://nces.ed.gov/blogs/nces/post/trends-in-graduate-student-loan-debt .
11. National Center for Education Statistics, “Trends in Graduate Student Loan Debt,” NCES Blog, August 2, 2018, https://nces.ed.gov/blogs/nces/post/trends-in-graduate-student-loan-debt.
12。“寻找最佳商学院”，US New，2020 年 1 月 29 日访问，https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-business-schools。
12. “Find the Best Business School,” U.S. New, accessed January 29, 2020, https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-business-schools.
13。Marc Ethier，“顶级 MBA 现在要花多少钱？九所学校跻身 20 万美元俱乐部”，Poets&Quants，2018 年 12 月 24 日，https://poetsandquants.com/2018/12/24/cost-of-an-mba-program/。
13. Marc Ethier, “How Much Does a Top MBA Now Cost? Nine Schools Are in the $200K Club,” Poets&Quants, December 24, 2018, https://poetsandquants.com/2018/12/24/cost-of-an-mba-program/.
14。关于顶尖大学如何偏向于有钱人脉的申请者的录取过程，我建议阅读Daniel Golden的 The Price of Admission (New York: Crown, 2006)，他在 2004 年因其报道而获得普利策奖在这个问题上。
14. For more on how top universities bias the admissions process in favor of wealthy and well-connected applicants, I suggest reading The Price of Admission by Daniel Golden (New York: Crown, 2006), who was awarded a Pulitzer Prize in 2004 for his reporting on the issue.
15。Shahien Nasiripour，“美国顶尖商学院学生背负债务以获得 MBA 学位”，彭博商业周刊，2019 年 6 月 17 日，https: //www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-17/top-usb-学校学生为了赚取 mba 而负债累累。
15. Shahien Nasiripour, “Top U.S. B-School Students Pile on Debt to Earn MBAs,” Bloomberg Businessweek, June 17, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-17/top-u-s-b-school-students-pile-on-debt-to-earn-mbas.
16。Christian Schraga，“沃顿商学院毕业生对未来 MBA 的告诫”，MBA——在尝试之前仔细思考（博客），2005 年 6 月 2 日，https: //web.archive.org/web/20181220151724/http://mbacaveatemptor .blogspot.com/2005/06/wharton-grads-caveat-emptor-for.html。
16. Christian Schraga, “A Wharton grad’s caveat emptor for prospective MBAs,” MBA—Think Carefully Before Taking the Plunge (blog), June 2, 2005, https://web.archive.org/web/20181220151724/http://mbacaveatemptor.blogspot.com/2005/06/wharton-grads-caveat-emptor-for.html.
17。Jeffrey Pfeffer 和 Christina T. Fong，“商学院的终结？Less Success Than Meets the Eye”，管理学习与教育学院 1，第 1 期。1（2002 年 9 月），http://www.aomonline.org/Publications/Articles/BSchools.asp。
17. Jeffrey Pfeffer and Christina T. Fong, “The End of Business Schools? Less Success Than Meets the Eye,” Academy of Management Learning & Education 1, no. 1 (September 2002), http://www.aomonline.org/Publications/Articles/BSchools.asp.
18。Dan Rasmussen 和 Haonan Li，“MBA 神话和 CEO 崇拜”，机构投资者，2019 年 2 月 27 日，https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1db3jy3201d38/The-MBA-Myth-and-the- CEO 崇拜。
18. Dan Rasmussen and Haonan Li, “The MBA Myth and the Cult of the CEO,” Institutional Investor, February 27, 2019, https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1db3jy3201d38/The-MBA-Myth-and-the-Cult-of-the-CEO.
19 . 请参阅丹尼尔·平克 (Daniel Pink) 的著作《驱动力：激励我们的惊人真相》（纽约：里弗黑德出版社，2009 年）。
19. See Daniel Pink’s book Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us (New York: Riverhead, 2009).
20。包括我们将在第 6 章讨论的知觉控制理论。
20. Including perceptual control theory, which we’ll discuss in chapter 6.
21 . Noam Scheiber，“高层管理不善”，新共和国，2009 年 12 月 18 日，http://www.tnr.com/article/economy/wagoner-henderson。
21. Noam Scheiber, “Upper Mismanagement,” New Republic, December 18, 2009, http://www.tnr.com/article/economy/wagoner-henderson.
22。杠杆是利用债务来扩大投资的财务回报率 (ROI)，如果企业不成功，它会产生放大下行风险的副作用。我们将在第 5 章详细讨论杠杆率和投资回报率。
22. Leverage is the use of debt to amplify financial return on investment (ROI), which has a side effect of amplifying downside risk if the business doesn’t succeed. We’ll discuss leverage and ROI in detail in chapter 5.
23 . 有关其工作原理的示例，请阅读 Julie Creswell，“在 Simmons，买入、耗尽和卖出，然后送往破产”，纽约时报，2009 年 10 月 4 日，http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10 /05/business/economy/05simmons.html。
23. For an example of how this works, read Julie Creswell, “At Simmons, Bought, Drained and Sold, Then Sent to Bankruptcy,” New York Times, October 4, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/05/business/economy/05simmons.html.
24 . “常见问题”，美国小企业宣传办公室，2019 年 9 月，https://cdn.advocacy.sba.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/24153946/Frequently-Asked-Questions-Small-商业-2019-1.pdf。
24. “Frequently Asked Questions,” US Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, September, 2019, https://cdn.advocacy.sba.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/24153946/Frequently-Asked-Questions-Small-Business-2019-1.pdf.
25。“小型企业推动美国的就业增长；他们创造了 180 万个净新工作岗位，最新数据显示”，美国小企业宣传办公室，2019 年 4 月 24 日，https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/04/24/small-businesses-drive-job -增长在美国 - 他们占 1-8 百万净新工作岗位 - 最新数据显示/。
25. “Small Businesses Drive Job Growth In United States; They Account For 1.8 Million Net New Jobs, Latest Data Show”, US Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, April 24, 2019, https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/04/24/small-businesses-drive-job-growth-in-united-states-they-account-for-1-8-million-net-new-jobs-latest-data-show/.
26。“常见问题”，美国小企业宣传办公室，2019 年 9 月，https://cdn.advocacy.sba.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/24153946/Frequently-Asked-Questions-Small-商业-2019-1.pdf。
26. “Frequently Asked Questions,” US Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, September, 2019, https://cdn.advocacy.sba.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/24153946/Frequently-Asked-Questions-Small-Business-2019-1.pdf.
27 . “小企业占美国经济活动的 44%”，美国小企业宣传办公室，2019 年 1 月 30 日，https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/01/30/small-businesses-generate-44-percent -我们的经济活动/。
27. “Small Businesses Generate 44 Percent Of U.S. Economic Activity,” US Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, January 30, 2019, https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/01/30/small-businesses-generate-44-percent-of-u-s-economic-activity/.
28。拉维尔，路易斯。“MBA 被高估了吗？” 彭博商业周刊，2006 年 3 月 20 日。https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2006-03-19/is-the-mba-overrated。
28. Lavelle, Louis. “Is The MBA Overrated?” Bloomberg Businessweek, March 20, 2006. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2006-03-19/is-the-mba-overrated.
29 . 有关如何在阅读时做好笔记的详细提示，请参阅https://personalmba.coma.com/resources/上的“3 种优化阅读理解和记忆力的简单技巧” 。
29. For detailed tips on how to take good notes while you read, see “3 Simple Techniques to Optimize Your Reading Comprehension and Retention” at https://personalmba.coma.com/resources/.
第 1 章：价值创造
CHAPTER 1: VALUE CREATION
1 . 有关我如何执行此操作的示例，请参阅https://personalmba.com/resources/上的“如何创建基本业务计划” 。
1. For an example of how I do this, see “How to Create a Basic Business Plan” at https://personalmba.com/resources/.
2 . 具有法律约束力的合同或承诺不与他人分享有关业务或业务理念的信息。
2. A legally binding contract or promise not to share information about a business or business idea with others.
3 . Louviere 将这种方法称为“MaxDiff”测试。您可以在此处找到其工作原理的解释：Sarah Littler，“最大差异缩放 (MaxDiff)”，Select Statistical Services，2019 年 12 月 3 日访问，https: //select-statistics.co.uk/blog/maximum-difference -缩放-maxdiff/。
3. Louviere called the approach “MaxDiff” testing. You can find an explanation of how it works here: Sarah Littler, “Maximum Difference Scaling (MaxDiff)”, Select Statistical Services, accessed December 3, 2019, https://select-statistics.co.uk/blog/maximum-difference-scaling-maxdiff/.
4 . 有关如何对您的商业创意进行相对重要性测试的示例，请参阅“如何进行相对重要性测试”，网址为https://personalmba.com/resources/。
4. For an example of how to conduct Relative Importance Testing for your business idea, see “How to Conduct Relative Importance Testing” at https://personalmba.com/resources/.
5 . “Arizona Outdoors Interview: Brief Biography of Patrick Smith”，Kifaru International，2001 年 9 月，http://www.kifaru.net/radio.htm [inactive]。
5. “Arizona Outdoors Interview: Brief Biography of Patrick Smith,” Kifaru International, September 2001, http://www.kifaru.net/radio.htm [inactive].
6 . Miguel Caballerousa，YouTube 频道，http://www.youtube.com/user/miguelcaballerousa。
6. Miguel Caballerousa, YouTube channel, http://www.youtube.com/user/miguelcaballerousa.
第 2 章：营销
CHAPTER 2: MARKETING
1 . 艾米·科蒂斯 (Amy Cortese)，“在鞋业巨头面前扭动脚趾”，纽约时报，2009 年 8 月 30 日，https: //www.nytimes.com/2009/08/30/business/30shoe.html 。
1. Amy Cortese, “Wiggling Their Toes at the Shoe Giants,” New York Times, August 30, 2009, https://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/30/business/30shoe.html.
2 . Jaya Saxena，“130 年前，大象解决了布鲁克林大桥上的恐慌”，幕后花絮（博客），纽约历史学会博物馆和图书馆，2014 年 5 月 29 日，http://behindthescenes.nyhistory.org/elephants- panic-brooklyn-bridge-1883/。
2. Jaya Saxena, “130 Years Ago, Elephants Solved Panic on the Brooklyn Bridge,” Behind the Scenes (blog), New-York Historical Society Museum and Library, May 29, 2014, http://behindthescenes.nyhistory.org/elephants-panic-brooklyn-bridge-1883/.
3 . “大象过桥”，纽约时报，1884 年 5 月 18 日，https://www.nytimes.com/1884/05/18/archives/the-elephants-cross-the-bridge.html。
3. “The Elephants Cross the Bridge,” New York Times, May 18, 1884, https://www.nytimes.com/1884/05/18/archives/the-elephants-cross-the-bridge.html.
4 . 您可以在https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91K8MvN01b4查看 Billy 的广告示例。
4. You can see examples of Billy’s commercials at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91K8MvN01b4.
5 . 请参阅https://www.progressive.com。
5. See https://www.progressive.com.
6 . Kevin Kelly，“Amish Hackers”，The Technium（博客），2009 年 2 月 10 日，https ://kk.org/thetechnium/amish-hackers-a/ 。
6. Kevin Kelly, “Amish Hackers,” The Technium (blog), February 10, 2009, https://kk.org/thetechnium/amish-hackers-a/.
第 3 章：销售
CHAPTER 3: SALES
1 . Edon Ophir，“507 克拉 Cullinan Heritage Diamond 售价 3530 万美元”，IDEX Online，2010 年 3 月 1 日，http://www.idexonline.com/FullArticle?id=33728。
1. Edon Ophir, “507-Carat Cullinan Heritage Diamond Sells for $35.3 Million,” IDEX Online, March 1, 2010, http://www.idexonline.com/FullArticle?id=33728.
2 . 您可以在此处找到公式：“贴现现金流 (DCF)”，Investopedia，2019 年 6 月 19 日，https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dcf.asp。
2. You can find the formula here: “Discounted Cash Flow (DCF),” Investopedia, June 19, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dcf.asp.
第 4 章：价值交付
CHAPTER 4: VALUE DELIVERY
1 . 有关我如何执行此操作的示例，请参阅https://personalmba.com/resources/上的“绘制价值流图/绘制系统流程图” 。
1. For an example of how I do this, see “Diagramming a Value Stream/Flowcharting a System” at https://personalmba.com/resources/.
2 . David A. Garvin，“在质量的八个维度上竞争”，哈佛商业评论，1987 年 11 月，https://hbr.org/1987/11/competing-on-the-eight-dimensions-of-quality。
2. David A. Garvin, “Competing on the Eight Dimensions of Quality,” Harvard Business Review, November 1987, https://hbr.org/1987/11/competing-on-the-eight-dimensions-of-quality.
3 . Drew Harwell，“美国最畅销的汽车和卡车是建立在谎言之上的：假引擎噪音的兴起”，华盛顿邮报，2015 年 1 月 21 日，https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/americas-best-销售汽车和卡车是建立在虚假引擎噪音的谎言上/2015/01/21/6db09a10-a0ba-11e4-b146-577832eafcb4_story.html。
3. Drew Harwell, “America’s Best-Selling Cars and Trucks Are Built on Lies: The Rise of Fake Engine Noise,” Washington Post, January 21, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/americas-best-selling-cars-and-trucks-are-built-on-lies-the-rise-of-fake-engine-noise/2015/01/21/6db09a10-a0ba-11e4-b146-577832eafcb4_story.html.
4 . 重要的是要注意并非所有企业都以相同的方式使用满意度吞吐量。与在休闲餐厅享用快餐相比，奢侈体验（如美食）通常需要更长的时间（并且花费更多）。在这些情况下，花在客户身上的大量时间和注意力是一种质量信号，旨在提高客户的满意度，并倾向于提升重要感和社会地位。
4. It’s important to note that not all businesses use satisfaction throughput in the same way. Luxury experiences, like fine dining, often involve much longer periods of time (and cost much more) than a quick meal at a casual restaurant. The lavish amount of time and attention spent on customers in these instances is a Quality Signal designed to increase the customer’s satisfaction and tend to promote feelings of importance and Social Status.
5 . 在印刷机出现之前，圣经由与世隔绝的僧侣复制和装饰（装饰和插图），他们花费数年时间制作一份副本。
5. Before the advent of the printing press, Bibles were copied and illuminated (decorated and illustrated) by cloistered monks, who spent years working on a single copy.
6 . Kevin Kelly，“比免费更好”，The Technium（博客），2008 年 1 月 31 日，https ://kk.org/thetechnium/better-than-fre/ 。
6. Kevin Kelly, “Better Than Free,” The Technium (blog), January 31, 2008, https://kk.org/thetechnium/better-than-fre/.
7 . 稍后我们将在自动化的悖论中讨论丰田的召回问题。
7. We’ll discuss Toyota’s recall woes later, in The Paradox of Automation.
8 . “2018-2019 CMI 年度报告”，Can Manufacturers Institute，2020 年 1 月 27 日访问，http://www.cancentral.com/sites/cancentral.com/files/public-documents/2018CMIAnnualReport.pdf。
8. “2018–2019 CMI Annual Report,” Can Manufacturers Institute, accessed January 27, 2020, http://www.cancentral.com/sites/cancentral.com/files/public-documents/2018CMIAnnualReport.pdf.
9 . Felix Richter，“黑莓的终端衰落”，Statista，2017 年 6 月 26 日，https: //www.statista.com/chart/8180/blackberrys-smartphone-market-share 。
9. Felix Richter, “The Terminal Decline of BlackBerry,” Statista, June 26, 2017, https://www.statista.com/chart/8180/blackberrys-smartphone-market-share.
10。Peter J. Meyers 博士，“Google 多久更新一次算法？”，Moz（博客），2019 年 5 月 14 日，https://moz.com/blog/how-often-does-google-update-its-算法。
10. Dr. Peter J. Meyers, “How Often Does Google Update Its Algorithm?,” Moz (blog), May 14, 2019, https://moz.com/blog/how-often-does-google-update-its-algorithm.
第 5 章：财务
CHAPTER 5: FINANCE
1 . 如果您对它的工作原理感兴趣，我推荐Brad Feld 和 Jason Mendelson 的Venture Deals（新泽西州霍博肯：John Wiley & Sons, Inc.，2013 年）。
1. If you’re interested in how this works, I recommend Venture Deals by Brad Feld and Jason Mendelson (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2013).
2 . James Carland 等人，“欺诈：小企业失败的伴随原因”，创业执行官，2001 年第 6 期，http ://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.201.3276&rep=rep1&type=pdf #page=79。
2. James Carland et al, “Fraud: A Concomitant Cause of Small Business Failure,” Entrepreneurial Executive 6, 2001, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.201.3276&rep=rep1&type=pdf#page=79.
第 6 章：人类思维
CHAPTER 6: THE HUMAN MIND
1 . 有关我的力量训练方法的详细信息，请参阅https://joshkaufman.net/strength-training-for-non-athletes/。
1. For details on my approach to strength training, see https://joshkaufman.net/strength-training-for-non-athletes/.
2 . 我使用飞利浦 GoLITE BLU 光疗仪并强烈推荐它。它小巧、明亮、易于携带，而且效果惊人。
2. I use the Philips GoLITE BLU light-therapy device and highly recommend it. It’s small, bright, and easy to travel with, and it works wonders.
3 . 有关大脑神经生理学的更多信息，请查看Gary F. Marcus（纽约州纽约市：Houghton Mifflin Harcourt）2008 年出版的《克鲁格：人类思维的随意构建》 。
3. For more on the neurophysiology of the brain, check out Kluge: The Haphazard Construction of the Human Mind by Gary F. Marcus (New York, NY: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt), 2008.
4 . Suzanne McGee，“争取金牌，破产：为什么奥林匹克运动员担心金钱”，《卫报》 ，2016 年 8 月 7 日，https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/aug/07/olympic-games-rio -运动员个人财务斗争；Charles Riley，“奥运选手面临经济困难”，CNN Money，2012 年 7 月 10 日，https://money.cnn.com/2012/07/10/news/economy/olympic-athletes-financial/index.htm。
4. Suzanne McGee, “Go for Gold, Wind Up Broke: Why Olympic Athletes Worry About Money,” Guardian, August 7, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/aug/07/olympic-games-rio-athletes-personal-finance-struggle; Charles Riley, “Olympians Face Financial Hardship,” CNN Money, July 10, 2012, https://money.cnn.com/2012/07/10/news/economy/olympic-athletes-financial/index.htm.
5 . “行人计数”，时代广场：官方网站，2019 年 10 月 24 日访问，https://www.timessquarenyc.org/do-business/market-research-data/pedestrian-counts。
5. “Pedestrian Counts,” Times Square: The Official Website, accessed October 24, 2019, https://www.timessquarenyc.org/do-business/market-research-data/pedestrian-counts.
6 . Adam Hayes，“荷兰郁金香球茎市场泡沫”，Investopedia，2019 年 6 月 25 日，https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp。
6. Adam Hayes, “Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble”, Investopedia, June 25, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp.
7 . Adam Hayes，“互联网泡沫”，Investopedia，2019 年 6 月 25 日，https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dotcom-bubble.asp
7. Adam Hayes, “Dotcom Bubble,” Investopedia, June 25, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dotcom-bubble.asp
8 . Jim Chappelow，“大衰退”，Investopedia，2019 年 7 月 25 日，https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/great-recession.asp。
8. Jim Chappelow, “The Great Recession,” Investopedia, July 25, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/great-recession.asp.
第 7 章：与自己合作
CHAPTER 7: WORKING WITH YOURSELF
1 . 多年来，我使用过几种不同的互联网拦截软件应用程序：其中一些可以拦截整个互联网，而另一些可以配置为按预定时间表拦截特定网站。在撰写本文时，我正在使用 Cold Turkey Blocker ( https://getcoldturkey.com )。
1. I’ve used several different internet blocking software applications over the years: some of them block the entire internet, and others can be configured to block specific websites on a predetermined schedule. I’m using Cold Turkey Blocker (https://getcoldturkey.com) as I write this.
2 . “番茄工作法”，Francesco Cirillo，于 2019 年 10 月 24 日访问，http://www.pomodorotechnique.com/。
2. “The Pomodoro Technique,” Francesco Cirillo, accessed October 24, 2019, http://www.pomodorotechnique.com/.
3 . Karin Foerde 等。等人，“通过干扰调制竞争性记忆系统” ，美国国家科学院院刊103，no。31（2006 年 8 月 1 日），http://www.pnas.org/content/103/31/11778.abstract。
3. Karin Foerde, et. al., “Modulation of Competing Memory Systems by Distraction,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103, no. 31 (August 1, 2006), http://www.pnas.org/content/103/31/11778.abstract.
4 . “手机司机和醉汉一样糟糕”，犹他大学，2006 年 6 月 29 日，https://archive.unews.utah.edu/news_releases/drivers-on-cell-phones-are-as-bad-as -醉汉/。
4. “Drivers on Cell Phones Are as Bad as Drunks,” University of Utah, June 29, 2006, https://archive.unews.utah.edu/news_releases/drivers-on-cell-phones-are-as-bad-as-drunks/.
5 . “Maker's Schedule, Manager's Schedule”，Paul Graham，2009 年 7 月，http://www.paulgraham.com/makersschedule.html。
5. “Maker’s Schedule, Manager’s Schedule,” Paul Graham, July 2009, http://www.paulgraham.com/makersschedule.html.
6 . “The Emergent Task Planner”，David Seah，2015 年 7 月 20 日，http://davidseah.com/pceo/etp。
6. “The Emergent Task Planner,” David Seah, July 20, 2015, http://davidseah.com/pceo/etp.
7 . Oren Harari，“鲍威尔主席语录：领导力入门”，GovLeaders.org，2019 年 12 月 1 日访问，http ://govleaders.org/powell.htm 。
7. Oren Harari, “Quotations from Chairman Powell: A Leadership Primer,” GovLeaders.org, accessed December 1, 2019, http://govleaders.org/powell.htm.
8 . 要全面了解我的个人生产力系统，请参阅“Josh Kaufman 的个人生产力系统”，https://personalmba.com/resources/。
8. For a complete look at my personal productivity system, see “Josh Kaufman’s Personal Productivity System,” https://personalmba.com/resources/.
9 . “Autofocus 时间管理系统”，Get Everything Done（博客），http://www.markforster.net/autofocus-system/。
9. “The Autofocus Time Management System,” Get Everything Done (blog), http://www.markforster.net/autofocus-system/.
10。Andrew Whalen，“'Behind the Curve' ending: Flat Earthers 用自己在 Netflix 纪录片中的实验证明自己”，新闻周刊，2019 年 2 月 25 日，https://www.newsweek.com/behind-curve-netflix-ending-light-实验标记萨金特纪录片电影 1343362。
10. Andrew Whalen, “‘Behind the Curve’ Ending: Flat Earthers Disprove Themselves with Own Experiments in Netflix Documentary,” Newsweek, February 25, 2019, https://www.newsweek.com/behind-curve-netflix-ending-light-experiment-mark-sargent-documentary-movie-1343362.
11 . 有关我如何执行此操作的示例，请参阅“如何跟踪您的时间和能量周期”，网址为https://personalmba.com/resources/。
11. For an example of how I do this, see “How to Track Your Time and Energy Cycles” at https://personalmba.com/resources/.
12。有关金钱如何降低幸福感的示例，请阅读Richard Watts的《财富寓言：富人拥有你不想要的东西》（德克萨斯州奥斯汀：Emerald Book Company，2012 年）。
12. For examples of how money can decrease happiness, read Fables of Fortune: What Rich People Have That You Don’t Want by Richard Watts (Austin, TX: Emerald Book Company, 2012).
13。Joshua Wolf Shenk，“什么让我们快乐？” ，大西洋，2009 年 6 月，http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/06/what-makes-us-happy/7439/3/。
13. Joshua Wolf Shenk, “What Makes Us Happy?,” Atlantic, June 2009, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/06/what-makes-us-happy/7439/3/.
第 8 章：与他人合作
CHAPTER 8: WORKING WITH OTHERS
1 . Derek Sheane, Beyond Bureaucracy , Organization Research, 1976. 这本书的第一版将这份清单的来源归于剑桥大学的迈克尔·萨克利夫博士。非常感谢 Marina Murray 的更正。
1. Derek Sheane, Beyond Bureaucracy, Organization Research, 1976. The first edition of this book attributed the source of this list to Dr. Michael Sutcliffe of the University of Cambridge. Many thanks to Marina Murray for the correction.
2 . Shane Parrish，“信任电池：我对 Shopify 创始人 Tobi Lütke 的采访”，知识项目，第 41 集，播客，MP3 音频，1:45:56，http ://fs.blog/tobi-lutke/ 。
2. Shane Parrish, “The Trust Battery: My Interview with Shopify Founder Tobi Lütke,” in The Knowledge Project, episode 41, podcast, MP3 audio, 1:45:56, http://fs.blog/tobi-lutke/.
3 . 如需详细了解 Milgram 实验的背景，包括实验本身的音频，请收听 Jad Abumrad 和 Robert Krulwich 的“The Bad Show”，2012 年 1 月 9 日，在Radiolab中，播客，MP3 音频，1:07： 28、https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/180092-the-bad-show。
3. For a detailed examination of the context of the Milgram experiment, including audio from the experiments themselves, listen to Jad Abumrad and Robert Krulwich, “The Bad Show,” January 9, 2012, in Radiolab, podcast, MP3 audio, 1:07:28, https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/180092-the-bad-show.
4 . Mark Morgan Ford，“斋浦尔波斯地毯商人的教训”，早起（博客），2007 年 11 月 30 日，http://www.earlytorise.com/2007/11/30/lessons-from-a-persian -地毯商人在斋浦尔/。
4. Mark Morgan Ford, “Lessons From a Persian Rug Merchant in Jaipur,” Early to Rise (blog), November 30, 2007, http://www.earlytorise.com/2007/11/30/lessons-from-a-persian-rug-merchant-in-jaipur/.
5 . Mike Bostock、Shan Carter 和 Archie Ise，“租还是买更好？” ，纽约时报，http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html。
5. Mike Bostock, Shan Carter, and Archie Ise, “Is It Better to Rent or Buy?,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html.
6 . Joel Spolsky，“管理团队——Joel Spolsky 的客座文章”，AVC（博客），2012 年 2 月 13 日，http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2012/02/the-management-team-guest-post -from-joel-spolsky.html。
6. Joel Spolsky, “The Management Team—Guest Post from Joel Spolsky,” AVC (blog), February 13, 2012, http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2012/02/the-management-team-guest-post-from-joel-spolsky.html.
第 10 章：分析系统
CHAPTER 10: ANALYZING SYSTEMS
1 . 有关我如何执行此操作的示例，请参阅https://personalmba.com/resources/上的“绘制价值流图/绘制系统流程图” 。
1. For an example of how I do this, see “Diagramming a Value Stream/ Flowcharting a System” at https://personalmba.com/resources/.
2 . “WSJ.com 受众概况”，道琼斯公司，2019 年 12 月 4 日访问，https://images.dowjones.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/183/2018/05/09164150/WSJ。 com-Audience-Profile.pdf。
2. “WSJ.com Audience Profile,” Dow Jones & CO, Inc., accessed December 4, 2019, https://images.dowjones.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/183/2018/05/09164150/WSJ.com-Audience-Profile.pdf.
3 . Mon Chu Chen、John R. Anderson 和 Myeong Ho Sohn，“鼠标光标能告诉我们更多信息吗？：网页浏览中眼睛/鼠标移动的相关性”，CHI EA '01：CHI '01 关于人为因素的扩展摘要计算系统，2001 年 3 月，281–82，http ://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=634067.634234 。
3. Mon Chu Chen, John R. Anderson, and Myeong Ho Sohn, “What Can a Mouse Cursor Tell Us More?: Correlation of Eye/Mouse Movements on Web Browsing,” CHI EA ’01: CHI ’01 Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Computing Systems, March 2001, 281–82, http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=634067.634234.
第 11 章：改进系统
CHAPTER 11: IMPROVING SYSTEMS
1 . Rahul Chadha，“近一半的美国家庭现在是亚马逊 Prime 订阅者”，eMarketer，2018 年 6 月 26 日，https://www.emarketer.com/content/nearly-half-of-us-households-are-now-amazon -主要订户。
1. Rahul Chadha, “Nearly Half of US Households Are Now Amazon Prime Subscribers,” eMarketer, June 26, 2018, https://www.emarketer.com/content/nearly-half-of-us-households-are-now-amazon-prime-subscribers.
2 . Lisanne Bainbridge，“自动化的讽刺”，伦敦大学学院心理学系，1983 年，http://www.bainbrdg.demon.co.uk/Papers/Ironies.html。
2. Lisanne Bainbridge, “Ironies of Automation,” Department of Psychology, University College London, 1983, http://www.bainbrdg.demon.co.uk/Papers/Ironies.html.
3 . Atul Gawande，“清单”，纽约客，2007 年 12 月 2 日，http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/12/10/071210fa_fact_gawande。
3. Atul Gawande, “The Checklist,” New Yorker, December 2, 2007, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/12/10/071210fa_fact_gawande.
4 . 您可以在https://personalmba.com/best-business-books/查看我推荐阅读列表的当前版本。
4. You can see the current version of my recommended reading list at https://personalmba.com/best-business-books/.
5 . LoadImpact.com 是针对网站、Web 或移动应用程序或应用程序编程接口的负载和性能测试服务。像这样的工具可以很容易地模拟数百（或数千）个并发用户，使您能够识别系统在重负载下会遇到的错误和性能问题。
5. LoadImpact.com is a load and performance testing service for websites, web or mobile apps, or application programming interfaces. Tools like this make it easy to simulate hundreds (or thousands) of simultaneous users, allowing you to identify bugs and performance issues the system will experience under heavy load.
6 . 老虎机有时被称为“单臂老虎机”，这就是“老虎机”问题得名的原因。顺便说一下，我不建议玩老虎机——赌场能盈利是有原因的。在标准赔率下和给定足够长的时间段内，庄家总是赢家，所以赢的唯一方法就是拒绝玩。让我们假设，为了这个思想实验，你不花钱玩——每场比赛只花费你拉动杠杆并看到结果所需的时间。
6. Slot machines are sometimes referred to as “one-armed bandits,” which is how the “bandit” problem got its name. I don’t recommend playing slot machines, by the way—there’s a reason casinos are profitable. Under standard odds and given a long enough period of time, the house always wins, so the only way to win is to refuse to play. Let’s assume, for the sake of this Thought Experiment, you’re not paying to play—each game only costs you the time it takes to pull the lever and see the result.
指数
INDEX
本索引中的页码指的是本书的印刷版本。所提供的链接会将您带到该打印页面的开头。您可能需要从该位置向前滚动才能在您的电子阅读器上找到相应的参考资料。
The page numbers in this index refer to the printed version of this book. The link provided will take you to the beginning of that print page. You may need to scroll forward from that location to find the corresponding reference on your e-reader.
ABC 方法，284 –85
ABC Method, 284–85
失神
Absence Blindness
元素, 252 –55
elements of, 252–55
作为反对购买，141
as objection to purchase, 141
事故，正常，378 –80
Accidents, Normal, 378–80
会计，推荐阅读，33 –34
Accounting, recommended reading, 33–34
积累，160 –61
Accumulation, 160–61
收购，作为人类的驱动力，42
Acquisition, as human drive, 42
市场的可寻址性，99 –100
Addressability, of market, 99–100
机构
Agency
定义, 49
defined, 49
- 面向业务，要求，56 – 57
-oriented business, requirements of, 56–57
Agents, as Buffers, 57, 133–34
阿卡西亚，260 –62
Akrasia, 260–62
允许购置成本 (AAC)
Allowable Acquisition Cost (AAC)
计算, 188 –90
calculation of, 188–90
过去的客户，重新激活，144
past customers, reactivation of, 144
备择方案
Alternatives
考虑, 73 –74
considering, 73–74
选项方向，351 –52
option orientation, 351–52
寻求地位的选择，44
status-seeking options, 44
Apple, technology corporation, 108 , 128 , 140 , 151 , 162 –63, 210 , 290
Apple, technology corporation, 108, 128, 140, 151, 162–63, 210, 290
到达谬误，316 –17
Arrival Fallacy, 316–17
资产，180 –81
Assets, 180–81
协会，心理，251 – 52
Association, mental, 251–52
附件，309 –10
Attachment, 309–10
注意力
Attention
客户，获得（见 营销）
of customers, gaining (see Marketing)
和新颖性，258-59
and novelty, 258–59
与工作相关的任务（参见工作和生产力）
to work-related tasks (see Work and productivity)
归因错误，346 –47
Attribution Error, 346–47
拍卖，120
Auctions, 120
观众聚合
Audience Aggregation
定义, 49
defined, 49
-oriented business, requirements of, 57–58, 65
权威，遵守，340 –42
Authority, compliance with, 340–42
自催化，365 –66
Autocatalysis, 365–66
自动化
Automation
最佳任务，413
best tasks for, 413
具有讽刺意味的是，415 –16
irony of, 415–16
和可扩展性，159 –60
and scalability, 159–60
B&H 照片视频，102
B&H Photo Video, 102
背景调查，117
Background checks, 117
班布里奇，丽莎娜，414 –15
Bainbridge, Lisanne, 414–15
资产负债表，180 –81
Balance Sheets, 180–81
Barriers to Purchase, 73, 132, 140–42
配料技术，266 –67
Batching technique, 266–67
行为。见 思想和行为
Behavior. See Mind and behavior
贝尔斯基，斯科特，268
Belsky, Scott, 268
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司，12 –13
Berkshire Hathaway, 12–13
黑莓，163
BlackBerry, 163
责备，归因错误，346 –47
Blame, Attribution Error, 346–47
结合，作为人类的驱动力，42
Bonding, as human drive, 42
债券，208
Bonds, 208
自举，210 –11
Bootstrapping, 210–11
边界设置，348 –49
Boundary Setting, 348–49
脑
Brain
零件/功能，220 –22
parts/functions of, 220–22
另见 思想和行为
See also Mind and behavior
品牌推广，113
Branding, 113
收支平衡，193 – 94
Breakeven, 193–94
布罗茨基，诺姆，344
Brodsky, Norm, 344
哈利·布朗，119 岁
Browne, Harry, 119
白金汉宫，马库斯，320 –21
Buckingham, Marcus, 320–21
缓冲器
Buffers
and Incentive-Caused Bias, 134, 344
在销售流程中，133 –35
in Sales process, 133–35
巴菲特、沃伦，12 –13、26、124、186、395、433 _ _ _ _ _ _
Buffett, Warren, 12–13, 26, 124, 186, 395, 433
捆绑和解除捆绑
Bundling and Unbundling
的元素, 66 –67
elements of, 66–67
和下一个最佳选择，128
and Next Best Alternative, 128
伯灵厄姆, 博, 344
Burlingham, Bo, 344
燃烧率，191
Burn rate, 191
商业
Business
扩展，方法（见 价值交付）
expanding, methods for (see Value Delivery)
信息，选择，9 –11
information, choosing of, 9–11
相互依存的过程，38 – 39
interdependent processes of, 38–39
market, importance of, 40–41, 48
只为了钱，避免，47 – 48
for money only, avoiding, 47–48
39 – 40岁所需的技能
skills needed for, 39–40
类型（见价值，形式）
types of (see Value, forms of)
商业文献，推荐，439
Business literature, recommended, 439
商学院
Business school
课堂/工作世界脱节，23 –25
classroom/work world disconnect, 23–25
成本，20 –23
cost of, 20–23
毕业生，工作生活，30 –31
graduates, work life of, 30–31
过时，28 – 29
as outdated, 28–29
招聘，强度，29 –30
recruitment, strength of, 29–30
versus self-directed study, 6–8, 16–18
系统性问题，19
systemic problems of, 19
买家的悔恨，140
Buyer’s remorse, 140
旁观者冷漠，331 –32
Bystander Apathy, 331–32
卡瓦列罗，米格尔，86 岁
Caballero, Miguel, 86
号召性用语，109 –10
Call to Action, 109–10
约瑟夫·坎贝尔，110 –11
Campbell, Joseph, 110–11
首都
Capital
定义，50
defined, 50
和资金层次结构，207 –10
and Hierarchy of Funding, 207–10
-面向业务，要求，62 –63
-oriented business, requirements of, 62–63
事业成功，教育神话。见商学院
Career success, and education myth. See Business school
卡内基，戴尔，326
Carnegie, Dale, 326
Cash Flow Statements, 176–81, 199
穴居人综合症, 136 , 216 –18, 239 , 288 –89, 303
Caveman Syndrome, 136, 216–18, 239, 288–89, 303
戒烟，419 –21
Cessation, 419–21
Change, of system, 371–72, 391
慈善原则，350 –51
Charity, Principle of, 350–51
Checklisting, 154, 255, 330, 419
Chipotle 墨西哥烤肉店，156
Chipotle Mexican Grill, 156
Churchill, Winston, 156, 298–99
西里洛，弗朗切斯科，264
Cirillo, Francesco, 264
收市比率，394 –95
Closing ratios, 394–95
Coca-Cola Company, 152–53, 251–52
科夫曼，柯特，321
Coffman, Curt, 321
认知范围限制，249 –51
Cognitive Scope Limitation, 249–51
Cognitive Switching Penalties, 201, 265–67
Commander’s Intent, 328–29, 348, 353
承诺，342 –44
Commitment, 342–44
共同点
Common Ground
沟通
Communication
取景，104
Framing, 104
在谈判中，132
in Negotiation, 132
开销, 209 , 322 –24, 329 , 353 , 404
Overhead, 209, 322–24, 329, 353, 404
州模型，325 –26
STATE model of, 325–26
另见与他人合作
See also Working with Others
Comparative Advantage, 320–21, 353
比较谬误，306 –7
Comparison Fallacy, 306–7
竞赛
Competition
障碍, 162 –63
barriers to, 162–63
的好处, 46 –47
benefits of, 46–47
观察, 方法, 47
observing, method for, 47
完成任务。请参阅工作和生产力
Completion of tasks. See Work and productivity
Confidence, Excessive Self-regard, 289–91, 342
确认偏差，292 –93
Confirmation Bias, 292–93
冲突
Conflicts
干扰工作，264 –65
interference with work, 264–65
解决, 232 –33
resolving, 232–33
Conservation of Energy, 226–28, 257
一致性
Consistency
与他人合作，342 –44
and Working with Others, 342–44
上下文，系统分析，390 –91
Context, systems analysis, 390–91
对比度，感知，255 –57
Contrast, perceptual, 255–57
控制点，271、293 、307 –9、348、351、427 _ _ _ _ _
Control, Locus of, 271, 293, 307–9, 348, 351, 427
控制系统, 222 , 223 , 231 , 232 , 345 , 364
Control systems, 222, 223, 231, 232, 345, 364
争议，作为营销手段，111 –13
Controversy, as marketing device, 111–13
收敛，338 –39
Convergence, 338–39
成本效益分析，183 –84
Cost-Benefit Analysis, 183–84
成本削减、质量、退化，192 –93
Cost cutting, quality, degradation of, 192–93
做生意的成本。见 财务
Cost of doing business. See Finance
Counterfactual simulation, 285–87, 427
交易对手风险
Counterparty risk
定义，149
defined, 149
在系统中，373 - 74
in Systems, 373–74
信用，个人，207 –8
Credit, personal, 207–8
关键假设
Critical Assumptions
审查新业务，79 –81
examining for new business, 79–81
和影子测试，81 –82
and Shadow Testing, 81–82
卡骆驰鞋，195
Crocs, 195
契克森米哈伊 (Csikszentmihalyi)，米哈里 (Mihaly)，263
Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly, 263
顾客
Customers
引起注意（见营销）
getting attention of (See Marketing)
需要和想要（见 价值创造）
needs and wants of (See Value Creation)
满足他们（见 价值交付）
satisfying them (See Value Delivery)
分段测量和，400 – 401
Segmentation measure and, 400–401
交易（见 销售）
transactions with (See Sales)
破坏入场，对销售前景，138 –39
Damaging Admission, to sales prospects, 138–39
危险、威胁封锁、246 –48、271、278、288、371 _ _ _
Danger, Threat Lockdown, 246–48, 271, 278, 288, 371
迪顿，安格斯，303 –4
Deaton, Angus, 303–4
债务
Debt
定义, 197
defined, 197
另见贷款
See also Loans
决定
Decisions
和人类的驱动力，42-43
and human drives, 42–43
制作技巧，276 –78
making, tips for, 276–78
解构主义，381 –83
Deconstruction, 381–83
代表团，268
Delegation, 268
德马科，汤姆，323
DeMarco, Tom, 323
人口统计，400 –401
Demographics, 400–401
绝望，136
Desperation, 136
收益递减，409 –10
Diminishing returns, 409–10
在收入方面，304
in income, 304
直接面向用户分发，149 –50
Direct-to-user distribution, 149–50
贴现现金流 (DCF)/净现值 (NPV) 定价法，120 –22，203
Discounted cash flow (DCF)/net present value (NPV) pricing method, 120–22, 203
讨论，在谈判中，131 –33
Discussion, in Negotiation, 131–33
分心，263 –65
Distractions, 263–65
和工作任务，避免（见工作和生产力）
and work-tasks, avoiding (See Work and productivity)
分配
Distribution
直接面向用户，149
direct-to-user, 149
中介, 149 –50
intermediary, 149–50
分歧, 338 –39
Divergence, 338–39
世界末日场景，288 –89
Doomsday Scenario, 288–89
驱动器，人力
Drives, human
核心形式, 41 –44
core forms of, 41–44
和动机，239
and motivation, 239
邓巴，罗宾，249
Dunbar, Robin, 249
邓巴氏号码，249
Dunbar’s number, 249
戴维·邓宁，290
Dunning, David, 290
重复，157 –58
Duplication, 157–58
和可扩展性，159 –60
and scalability, 159–60
另见系统乘法
See also Multiplication of systems
Dweck, Carol S., 311 –12
Dweck, Carol S., 311–12
收益
Earnings
对于刚开始的 MBA，30 –31
for beginning MBAs, 30–31
商学院神话，19 – 23
business school myth and, 19–23
规模经济，26
Economies of scale, 26
基于教育的销售，126 –27
Education-Based Selling, 126–27
消除购买风险，141-42
to eliminate risk of purchase, 141–42
效率比，183
Efficiency ratios, 183
80-20 规则，407 –8
80-20 rule, 407–8
情绪
Emotions
欲望, 挑衅, 101
desire, provoking of, 101
开车感受，42 – 43
drive to feel, 42–43
最终结果, 64 , 235 , 262 , 270 , 353
End Result, 64, 235, 262, 270, 353
专注于营销，94 –95
in focus of Marketing, 94–95
在谈判中，132
in Negotiation, 132
Energy, Conservation of, 226–28, 257
能量循环，295 –97
Energy Cycles, 295–97
熵，368 –69
Entropy, 368–69
和行为，222 –23, 225 , 228 –29, 240
and behavior, 222–23, 225, 228–29, 240
和谈判，131
and Negotiation, 131
of Systems, 225, 358, 364, 366–68
错误，感知，224 –25
Errors, perceptual, 224–25
埃斯蒂，丹尼尔，250
Esty, Daniel, 250
长青潜力，46
Evergreen Potential, 46
过度自尊倾向，289 – 91
Excessive Self-regard Tendency, 289–91
排他性，128 –29
Exclusivity, 128–29
锻炼和健康，161、218–19、248、304 _ _ _
Exercise, and health, 161, 218–19, 248, 304
扩大业务。请参阅促进增长的四种方法；可持续增长周期
Expansion of business. See Four Methods to Increase Growth; Sustainable Growth Cycle
Expectation Effect, 104, 150–51, 154
实验心态，432
Experimental mind-set, 432
实验
Experimentation
模式匹配，学习，219，230，233 –34
Pattern Matching, learning, 219, 230, 233–34
测试，299 –301
Testing, 299–301
勘探/开发，428 –29
Exploration/Exploitation, 428–29
外部性，376 –78
Externality, 376–78
外化，282 –83
Externalization, 282–83
故障保险，423 –25
Fail-safes, 423–25
最糟糕的恐惧（世界末日场景），288 –89
Fears, worst (Doomsday Scenario), 288–89
回馈
Feedback
循环, 26 , 204 , 254 , 340 , 364 –65
Loops, 26, 204, 254, 340, 364–65
最大化, 提示, 72 –73
maximizing, tips for, 72–73
现场测试，85 –86
Field Testing, 85–86
个人方法，86
personal approach to, 86
金融
Finance
Allowable Acquisition Cost (AAC), 144, 188–90
资产负债表，180 –81
Balance Sheets, 180–81
自举，210 –11
Bootstrapping, 210–11
收支平衡，193 – 94
Breakeven, 193–94
Cash Flow Statements, 176–81, 199
成本效益分析，183 –84
Cost-Benefit Analysis, 183–84
成本，固定和可变，189 –91
Costs, Fixed and Variable, 189–91
Hierarchy of Funding, 62, 206–11
损益表，177 –79
Income Statements, 177–79
增量退化，192 – 93
Incremental Degradation, 192–93
Internal Controls, 199, 214–15
杠杆, 28 , 182 , 205 –6, 214 , 422
Leverage, 28, 182, 205–6, 214, 422
Lifetime Value, 144, 167, 187–90
有限授权，200 –201
Limited Authorization, 200–201
定价能力，186 –87
Pricing Power, 186–87
利润，169 –70
Profit, 169–70
利润率，170 –71
Profit Margin, 170–71
recommended reading for, 179, 203, 439
Return on Investment, 211–12, 394
Revenue, increasing, 144, 184–85
Segregation of Duties, 198–200, 215
充足, 173 –75
Sufficiency, 173–75
金钱的时间价值，202 –3
Time Value of Money, 202–3
估值，175 –76
Valuation, 175–76
价值捕获，171 –72
Value Capture, 171–72
菲奥雷，尼尔，232
Fiore, Neil, 232
健身手环，82 –83
Fitbit, 82–83
五指，90 – 91
FiveFingers, 90–91
固定成本
Fixed Costs
在允许购置成本 (ACC) 中，189
in Allowable Acquisition Cost (ACC), 189
定义, 190 –91
defined, 190–91
灵活性
Flexibility
和经济价值，76
and Economic Values, 76
和选项，60
and Options, 60
作为通用货币，129 –30
as Universal Currency, 129–30
流，状态，263
Flow, state of, 263
流程、系统、360、366、381、383、391 _ _ _ _ _
Flows, systems, 360, 366, 381, 383, 391
专注于与工作相关的任务。请参阅工作和生产力
Focus, on work-related tasks. See Work and productivity
跟进，获得许可，107
Follow-up, getting permission for, 107
芳，克里斯蒂娜，21 – 24
Fong, Christina, 21–24
福布斯，不列颠哥伦比亚省，434
Forbes, B. C., 434
Force Multipliers, 163–64, 211
强制功能，334
Forcing Function, 334
取景
Framing
消除购买风险，141
to eliminate risk of purchase, 141
和目标，271
and Goals and objectives, 271
市场营销专业，103 –4
in Marketing, 103–4
作为脑力锻炼，256
as mental exercise, 256
和抗拒，136
and Persuasion Resistance, 136
and Value-Based Selling, 125, 141
特许经营，好处，159
Franchising, benefits of, 159
免费项目
Free items
作为营销手段，105 –6
as Marketing device, 105–6
和往复运动，137-38
and Reciprocation, 137–38
摩擦, 201 , 229 , 266 , 411 –13, 416
Friction, 201, 229, 266, 411–13, 416
炸，杰森，332
Fried, Jason, 332
埃里克·弗里德曼，82 岁
Friedman, Eric, 82
福冈市正信，420
Fukuoka, Masanobu, 420
资金业务
Funding business
通过 Bootstrapping，210 –11
by Bootstrapping, 210–11
方法，206-10
methods for, 206–10
Gap 集团，77
Gap Inc., 77
Garbage In, Garbage Out, 219, 386–87
慷慨和回报，137-38
Generosity, and Reciprocation, 137–38
目标和目标
Goals and objectives
确定，五重法，278 –80
determining, Five-Fold methods, 278–80
取景，271
Framing, 271
下一步行动，280 –82
Next Action, 280–82
和启动, 274 –76
and Priming, 274–76
吞吐量，作为衡量标准，156 –57
Throughput, as measure, 156–57
Godin, Seth, 10–11, 88, 91, 106
戈德史密斯，马歇尔，325
Goldsmith, Marshall, 325
戈尔曼，丹尼尔，326
Goleman, Daniel, 326
孙子统治，250 –51
Grandchild rule, 250–51
格伦尼，约瑟夫，325
Grenny, Joseph, 325
小组互动。见与他人合作
Group interaction. See Working with Others
生长周期，可持续，429 –31
Growth Cycles, Sustainable, 429–31
指导结构，用于行为改变，219 –20、228 –29、264、274
Guiding Structure, for behavioral change, 219–20, 228–29, 264, 274
Guthy-Renker，189岁
Guthy-Renker, 189
汉森，大卫·海涅迈尔，332 –33年
Hansson, David Heinemeier, 332–33
麻烦保费，63 –64
Hassle Premium, 63–64
健康
Health
和能量循环，295 –97
and Energy Cycles, 295–97
指南，218 –20、228、273、308 _ _ _ _
guidelines for, 218–20, 228, 273, 308
和现代世界，218
and modern world, 218
套期保值，427
Hedging, 427
享乐跑步机，303 –6
Hedonic Treadmill, 303–6
英雄之旅，110 –11
Hero’s Journey, 110–11
Hierarchy of Funding, 62, 206–11
事后偏见，293-94，313
HiPPO 规则，346
HiPPO rules, 346
hiring employees, 355–57, 410–11
诚实，分析，389 –90
Honesty, Analytical, 389–90
希望钻石，119 –20
Hope Diamond, 119–20
人力驱动。参见 驱动器，人类
Human drives. See Drives, human
人类思维。见思想和行为
Human mind. See Mind and behavior
人类绩效与可扩展性，159 –60
Human performance, versus scalability, 159–60
人性化，401 –2
Humanization, 401–2
宜家，288
IKEA, 288
改进
Improvements
和积累，160 –61
and Accumulation, 160–61
和放大，161 –62
and Amplification, 161–62
创新与竞争，162 –63
innovation versus competition, 162–63
激励引起的偏差, 134 , 344 –45, 385 , 390
Incentive-Caused Bias, 134, 344–45, 385, 390
收入，家庭，304、392、402 _
Income, household, 304, 392, 402
Income Statements, 177–79, 181
Incremental Augmentation, 84–85, 161, 359
流入，360 –61
Inflows, 360–61
英格拉姆，马克，126
Ingram, Mark, 126
抑制，精神，221，240，346 _
Inhibition, mental, 221, 240, 346
首次公开募股 (IPO)，209
Initial public offering (IPO), 209
创新与竞争，162 –63
Innovation, versus competition, 162–63
保险
Insurance
业务，要求，61 –62
business, requirements of, 61–62
定义，50
defined, 50
和终身价值，187 – 88
and Lifetime Value, 187–88
Interdependence, in Systems, 372–73, 382
中介分销, 149 –50
Intermediary distribution, 149–50
中介和非中介，67 –68
Intermediation and Disintermediation, 67–68
Internal Controls, 199, 214–15
互联网
Internet
和重复, 157 –58
and Duplication, 157–58
口译，心理，236 –38
Interpretation, mental, 236–38
干预偏差，403 –4
Intervention Bias, 403–4
迭代周期
Iteration Cycle
and Incremental Augmentation, 84–85, 161, 359
and Iteration Velocity, 71, 364
琼斯，丹尼尔·T.，161
Jones, Daniel T., 161
改善, 161
Kaizen, 161
假面院长，40 岁
Kamen, Dean, 40
坎普拉德，英格瓦，288
Kamprad, Ingvar, 288
考夫曼建筑公司，212 –13
Kaufman Construction Company, 212–13
凯文·凯利，157 岁
Kelly, Kevin, 157
关键绩效指标 (KPI), 354 , 384 –86, 390 , 405
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), 354, 384–86, 390, 405
Kifaru 国际, 85 –86
Kifaru International, 85–86
克莱因，加里，254
Klein, Gary, 254
克鲁格，贾斯汀，290
Kruger, Justin, 290
兰格，艾伦，328
Langer, Ellen, 328
保罗·劳伦斯，42 岁
Lawrence, Paul, 42
大卫·拉克斯，131
Lax, David, 131
学习
Learning
作为人力驱动，42
as human drive, 42
神经学基础，230 –31
neurological basis, 230–31
另见思想和行为
See also Mind and behavior
租
Lease
和资产价值，55-56
and asset value, 55–56
定义, 49
defined, 49
- 面向业务，要求，55 – 56
-oriented business, requirements of, 55–56
Lefkoe，莫蒂，237
Lefkoe, Morty, 237
杠杆, 182 , 205 –6, 214 , 374 , 422
Leverage, 182, 205–6, 214, 374, 422
杠杆收购，28
Leveraged buyouts, 28
负债，180 –81
Liabilities, 180–81
终生价值, 144 , 167 , 187 –90, 400
Lifetime Value, 144, 167, 187–90, 400
和允许购置成本 (ACC)，188 –90
and Allowable Acquisition Cost (ACC), 188–90
有限授权，200 –201
Limited Authorization, 200–201
限制信念，311 –13
Limiting Belief, 311–13
流动性比率，182
Liquidity ratios, 182
倾听和基于价值的销售，125
Listening, and Value-Based Selling, 125
李斯特，蒂莫西，323
Lister, Timothy, 323
贷款
Loans
定义, 49
defined, 49
在资金层次结构中，208
in Hierarchy of Funding, 208
杠杆，205 –6
Leverage, 205–6
- 面向业务，要求，58 – 59
-oriented business, requirements of, 58–59
类型, 207 –9
types of, 207–9
承保他们，59
underwriting them, 59
和比较谬误，307
and Comparison Fallacy, 307
和目标，271
and Goals, 271
洛尔，吉姆，295
Loehr, Jim, 295
损失厌恶
Loss Aversion
mental process of, 244–46, 262, 277
as objection to purchase, 140, 245
亏损领导者，189
Loss leader, 189
卢维埃，约旦，78 岁
Louviere, Jordan, 78
麦克沃斯，诺曼，258 –59年
Mackworth, Norman, 258–59
管理
Management
基于绩效的招聘，353 –54
performance-based hiring, 353–54
352 –55的原则
principles of, 352–55
凯文·曼尼，76 岁
Maney, Kevin, 76
误差幅度，392 –93
Margin of Error, 392–93
马克英格拉姆新娘工作室，126 – 27
Mark Ingram Bridal Atelier, 126–27
市场
Market
比较定价方法，120 –22
comparison pricing method for, 120–22
竞争, 好处, 46 –47
competition, benefits of, 46–47
识别潜在市场，43
identifying potential market, 43
铁律，40 –41
Iron Law of, 40–41
十种评估方法，44-46
Ten Ways to Evaluate, 44–46
营销
Marketing
面向可寻址的观众，99 – 100
to addressable audience, 99–100
注意力，收入，88 –89
Attention, earning, 88–89
号召性用语，109 –10
Call to Action, 109–10
争议和, 111 –13
Controversy and, 111–13
customers, qualifying, 96–98, 185
欲望，挑衅，101
Desire, provoking, 101
以最终结果为重点，94 –95
End Result as focus of, 94–95
入口点，98 –99
Entry Point, 98–99
取景，103 –4
Framing in, 103–4
免费价值，提供，105 –6
free value, offering, 105–6
上钩，108 –9
Hook in, 108–9
叙述，创造，110 –11
narratives, creating, 110–11
和全神贯注，92 – 93
and Preoccupation, 92–93
给可能的购买者，91 –92
to Probable Purchasers, 91–92
和接受能力，89 – 90
and Receptivity, 89–90
卓越的产品，90 –91
with remarkable products, 90–91
和声誉，113 –14
and Reputation, 113–14
垃圾邮件方法，106 –7
spam approach to, 106–7
unsolicited materials and, 89, 106–7
可视化，鼓励，102 –3
Visualization, encouraging, 102–3
Marks-Beale，艾比，275
Marks-Beale, Abby, 275
最大化
Maximization
系统，405
of Systems, 405
价值捕获，172
Value Capture by, 172
MBA/工商管理硕士课程。见 商学院
MBA/MBA programs. See Business school
麦克米兰，罗恩，325
McMillan, Ron, 325
系统测量。参见系统分析
Measurement of system. See Systems analysis
中位数，388
Median, 388
心理模型
Mental models
和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，12 – 13
and Berkshire Hathaway, 12–13
金融专业，168 –215
for Finance, 168–215
成型, 4 –5
forming, 4–5
13 –14的格子
latticework of, 13–14
市场营销, 89 –114
for Marketing, 89–114
思想和行为，216 –59
for mind and behavior, 216–59
销售, 115 –45
for Sales, 115–45
对于系统，358 –80
for Systems, 358–80
用于系统分析，381 –402
for Systems analysis, 381–402
用于系统改进，403 –35
for Systems improvement, 403–35
价值创造，37 –86
for Value Creation, 37–86
价值交付，146 –67
for Value Delivery, 146–67
对于工作和生产力，260 –317
for work and productivity, 260–317
与他人合作，318 –57
for Working with Others, 318–57
Mental Simulation, 219, 234–35, 237
中档，395 –96
Midrange, 395–96
米尔格拉姆，斯坦利，341
Milgram, Stanley, 341
思想和行为
Mind and behavior
失明失明，141、155、252–56、384、404 _ _ _ _ _ _
Absence Blindness, 141, 155, 252–56, 384, 404
brain-as-onion analogy, 220–22, 238, 240
穴居人综合症, 136 , 216 –18, 239 , 288 –89
Caveman Syndrome, 136, 216–18, 239, 288–89
认知范围限制，249 –51
Cognitive Scope Limitation, 249–51
冲突，231-33
Conflicts, 231–33
Conservation of Energy, 226–28, 257
对比度，255 –57
Contrast, 255–57
和环境, 222 –23, 225 , 228 –29, 232
and Environment, 222–23, 225, 228–29, 232
Guiding Structure for, 219–20, 228–29
health, tips for, 218–20, 228, 262, 273
Interpretation/Reinterpretation, 236–38, 245, 264
损失厌恶，244-46
Loss Aversion, 244–46
心理模拟，234 –35
Mental Simulation, 234–35
动机，238 –39
Motivation, 238–39
新颖性，258 –59
Novelty, 258–59
模式匹配, 219 –20, 233 –34, 251 , 275 , 312
Pattern Matching, 219–20, 233–34, 251, 275, 312
知觉控制, 222 –24, 264 , 345 , 364
Perceptual Control, 222–24, 264, 345, 364
性能要求，218 –20
Performance Requirements, 218–20
recommended reading for, 219, 223, 254
参考水平，平衡，224 –30
Reference Levels, balance in, 224–30
重组，229 –31
Reorganization, 229–31
状态故障，243 –44
Status Malfunction, 243–44
Status Signals, 44, 65, 186, 241–43
威胁锁定，246 –48、278、288、371 _ _ _
Threat Lockdown, 246–48, 278, 288, 371
与工作相关的任务，专注于（见 工作和生产力）
work-related tasks, focus on (see Work and productivity)
读心谬误，347 –48
Mind-Reading Fallacy, 347–48
最小化
Minimization
系统，405
of Systems, 405
价值捕获，172
Value Capture by, 172
Minimum Viable Offer, 82–84, 116
模态偏差，345 –46
Modal Bias, 345–46
模式, 395 –96
Mode, 395–96
模块化
Modularity
捆绑和分拆，66 –67
Bundling and Unbundling, 66–67
的元素, 65 –66
elements of, 65–66
单一理想主义，263 – 66
Monoidealism, 263–66
最重要的任务，167、269 –70、272、295、300 _ _ _
Most Important Tasks, 167, 269–70, 272, 295, 300
和目标，270 –71
and Goals, 270–71
约翰·穆林斯，41 岁
Mullins, John, 41
系统的乘法，158-59
Multiplication of systems, 158–59
和特许经营，158-59
and franchising, 158–59
和可扩展性，159 –60
and scalability, 159–60
多任务处理，265 –67
Multitasking, 265–67
Munger, Charles T., 12–13, 368
墨菲，WH，86 岁
Murphy, W. H., 86
Narratives, as marketing device, 110–11, 343, 402
选择的必要性，315 –16
Necessity of Choice, 315–16
谈判
Negotiation
尺寸, 130 –33
dimensions of, 130–33
推荐阅读，131
recommended reading for, 131
网飞公司，144
Netflix, 144
报纸规则，250 –51
Newspaper rule, 250–51
下一步行动，280 –82
Next Action, 280–82
下一个最佳选择，78、121、127 –28、202 –3、244 _ _
Next Best Alternative, 78, 121, 127–28, 202–3, 244
诺里亚，尼廷，42 岁
Nohria, Nitin, 42
规范，338 –39
Norms, 338–39
定价，186
for Pricing, 186
系统分析，398
Systems analysis, 398
新颖性和行为，258 –59
Novelty, and behavior, 258–59
营养，指南，218 –20
Nutrition, guidelines, 218–20
服从权威，340 –42
Obedience, to Authority, 340–42
Objections to purchase, countering, strategies for, 132, 140–42
Opportunity Costs, 130, 201–3, 408
Optimization of system, 162, 405, 409
期权疲劳，139 – 40
Option Fatigue, 139–40
期权导向，351 –52
Option Orientation, 351–52
选项
Options
定义，59 –60
defined, 59–60
面向业务，要求，59 –60
-oriented business, requirements of, 59–60
流出，360 –61
Outflows, 360–61
高架
Overhead
在允许购置成本 (ACC) 中，189
in Allowable Acquisition Cost (ACC), 189
燃烧率，监测，191
burn rate, monitoring, 191
的组成部分，190 – 91
components of, 190–91
所有者权益, 180 –81
Owner’s Equity, 180–81
帕累托原则，407 –8
Pareto principle, 407–8
帕克，詹姆斯，82 岁
Park, James, 82
帕金森，西里尔·诺斯科特，287
Parkinson, Cyril Northcote, 287
过去的绩效指标，400
Past performance measure, 400
模式匹配，心理，219 –20、233 –34、251、275、312 _ _
Pattern Matching, mental, 219–20, 233–34, 251, 275, 312
模式，识别价值创造，75
Patterns, identifying for Value Creation, 75
帕特森，克里，325
Patterson, Kerry, 325
Perceived Value, 64–66, 129, 175–76
知觉控制, 222 –24, 264 , 319 , 345
Perceptual Control, 222–24, 264, 319, 345
基于绩效的招聘，355 –57
Performance-Based Hiring, 355–57
性能要求，218 –20
Performance Requirements, 218–20
允许
Permission
和客户重新激活，144
and customer Reactivation, 144
to market, getting, 106–7, 110
个人工商管理硕士
Personal MBA
和积极的争议，111 –12
and positive Controversy, 111–12
个人研发，310 –11
Personal Research and Development, 310–11
抗说服力，135 –36
Persuasion Resistance, 135–36
菲佛，杰弗里，21 – 24
Pfeffer, Jeffrey, 21–24
计划谬误，332 –33
Planning Fallacy, 332–33
和过度自信，291、353、374 _
and overconfidence, 291, 353, 374
销售点 (POS) 系统，145
Point-of-sale (POS) systems, 145
番茄工作法，264 –65
Pomodoro Technique, 264–65
力量
Power
董事会成员，210
of board of directors, 210
和送礼，137
and gift giving, 137
and group interaction, 43, 319–20
影响与强迫，319-20
influence versus compulsion and, 319–20
和反对购买，142
and objection to purchase, 142
质量的可预测性，152 –53
Predictability, of quality, 152–53
价格转换冲击，122 –24
Price Transition Shock, 122–24
定价产品/服务
Pricing products/services
伪装, 256
camouflaged, 256
贴现现金流 (DCF)/净现值 (NPV) 方法，120 –22，203
discounted cash flow (DCF)/net present value (NPV) method, 120–22, 203
市场比较法，120-22
market comparison method, 120–22
价格转换冲击，122 –24
Price Transition Shock, 122–24
定价泡沫，420 –21
pricing bubbles, 420–21
定价能力，186 –87
Pricing Power, 186–87
定价不确定性原则，119 –20
Pricing Uncertainty Principle, 119–20
重置成本法，120 –22
replacement cost method, 120–22
支持价，119
supporting price, 119
价值比较法，122
value comparison method, 122
主动性，189
Proactiv, 189
过程开销，419
Process Overhead, 419
拖延，231-32
Procrastination, 231–32
产品开发
Product development
原型，68 –69
Prototypes, 68–69
保密，避免，68-69
secrecy, avoiding, 68–69
过程中的步骤，147
steps in process, 147
生产率。请参阅 工作和生产力
Productivity. See Work and productivity
产品
Products
吸引注意力（参见 营销）
attention-getting for (See Marketing)
作为企业，要求50 –51
as business, requirements of, 50–51
定义, 49
defined, 49
排他性，128 –29
Exclusivity, 128–29
需要和想要，填充（见 价值创造）
needs and wants, filling (See Value Creation)
定价（见定价产品/服务）
pricing (See Pricing products/services)
满足客户（见 价值交付）
satisfying customers (See Value Delivery)
的类型（见价值，形式）
types of (See Value, forms of)
允许的购置成本 (ACC) 中的利润率，189
Profit Margin, in Allowable Acquisition Cost (ACC), 189
人均利润比率，394
Profit per employee ratio, 394
利润
Profits
定义，169 –70
defined, 169–70
和增量退化，192 – 93
and Incremental Degradation, 192–93
作为结束的手段，174
as means to end, 174
利润率170 –71
Profit Margin and, 170–71
盈利比率，182
profitability ratios, 182
足够的，174 – 75
Sufficiency of, 174–75
进步保险，97
Progressive Insurance, 97
渐进式负载，410 –11
Progressive Load, 410–11
彼得·普罗诺沃斯特，417 –18年
Pronovost, Peter, 417–18
保护，捍卫，42
Protection, drive to defend, 42
防护服公司，86
Protective Garment Corporation, 86
原型，68 –69
Prototypes, 68–69
代理措施，399 –400
Proxy measure, 399–400
心理学，400 –401
Psychographics, 400–401
Public stock offering, 62–63, 209–10
购买力
Purchasing Power
元素, 196 –97
elements of, 196–97
增加，方法，197-98
increasing, methods for, 197–98
Qualifying customers, 96–98, 185, 377
质量，153 –55
Quality, 153–55
Expectation Effect, 150–51, 154
与增量退化，192 – 93
versus Incremental Degradation, 192–93
可预测性，152 –53
Predictability, 152–53
质量信号，154 –55
Quality Signals, 154–55
问题
Questions
反事实模拟，285 –87
counterfactual simulation, 285–87
改善结果, 441 –43
to improve results, 441–43
自我启发，283 –85
Self-Elicitation, 283–85
尼尔·拉克姆，125岁
Rackham, Neil, 125
范围，224 –25
Ranges, 224–25
拉斯，汤姆，321
Rath, Tom, 321
Ratios, Systems Analysis, 182–83, 394–95
重新激活，过去的客户，144 –45
Reactivation, past customers, 144–45
阅读清单，推荐，439
Reading list, recommended, 439
对营销信息的接受度，89 –90
Receptivity, to Marketing message, 89–90
往复运动，在销售过程中，137 –38
Reciprocation, in Sales process, 137–38
Recruitment, and MBA programs, 20–21, 29–30
重构，406 –7
Refactoring, 406–7
Reference Levels, mental, 224–27, 229–30
转介
Referrals
消除购买风险，141
to eliminate risk of purchase, 141
扩展网络，335 –36
to expand network, 335–36
Reinterpretation, mental, 135–36, 236–37, 245
相对重要性测试，77 –79
Relative Importance Testing, 77–79
Reliability of quality, 148, 152–54
引人注目，引人注目，90 – 91
Remarkability, and attention-grabbing, 90–91
重组，精神，229-31
Reorganization, mental, 229–31
Replacement cost pricing method, 56, 120–21
名声
Reputation
权威, 342
of authority, 342
strong, building, 113–14, 138, 150
信任和销售流程，114、117、146
Trust, and sales process, 114, 117, 146
转售
Resale
-面向业务，要求，54 –55
-oriented business, requirements of, 54–55
研究与开发，个人，310 –11
Research and Development, Personal, 310–11
资源，通用货币，129 –30
Resources, Universal Currencies, 129–30
Return on Investment, 211–12, 394
促销回报率，394
Return on Promotion ratio, 394
退货/投诉率，394
Returns/Complaints ratio, 394
收入
Revenue
盈亏平衡点，193 – 94
Breakeven point, 193–94
增加，方法，184-85
increasing, methods for, 184–85
大卫·里卡多，320
Ricardo, David, 320
Risk Reversal, to eliminate risk of purchase, 142–43, 150, 246
强盗洞穴实验，336 –37
Robbers Cave experiment, 336–37
罗恩，吉姆，339
Rohn, Jim, 339
通信安全，325 –26
Safety, in communication, 325–26
销售量
Sales
缓冲区，133 – 35
Buffers in, 133–35
和承诺，342 –44
and Commitments, 342–44
Common Ground as condition, 118–19, 132–33
客户选择，理解，127 –28
customer alternatives, understanding, 127–28
损害准入前景，138 –39
Damaging Admission to prospects, 138–39
基于教育的销售，126 –27
Education-Based Selling, 126–27
排他性, 128 –29
Exclusivity in, 128–29
和谈判，130 –33
and Negotiation, 130–33
反对购买，反击，140 –42
objections to purchase, countering, 140–42
期权疲劳，139 – 40
Option Fatigue, 139–40
过去的客户，重新激活，144 –45
past customers, Reactivation of, 144–45
抗说服力，135 –36
Persuasion Resistance, 135–36
价格转换冲击，122 –24
Price Transition Shock, 122–24
定价方法，120 –22
Pricing Methods, 120–22
定价不确定性原则，119 –20
Pricing Uncertainty Principle, 119–20
的目的，38
purpose of, 38
往复运动，137
Reciprocation in, 137
recommended reading for, 125, 131
风险逆转，142 –43
Risk Reversal in, 142–43
交易，116
Transaction in, 116
通用货币，129 –30
Universal Currencies, 129–30
基于价值的销售，124 –25
Value-Based Selling, 124–25
采样，系统分析，389，391–92，416 _
Sampling, systems analysis by, 389, 391–92, 416
满意，客户。查看 价值交付
Satisfaction, customer. See Value Delivery
可扩展性，159 –60
Scalability, 159–60
稀缺性和行为，257-58
Scarcity, and behavior, 257–58
Scenario Planning, 371, 426–28
施伊伯，诺姆，27岁
Scheiber, Norm, 27
施瓦茨，托尼，295
Schwartz, Tony, 295
Scientific management, 25, 352
塞贝纽斯，詹姆斯·K.，131
Sebenius, James K., 131
二阶效应, 344 , 375 –76, 378 , 420
Second-Order Effects, 344, 375–76, 378, 420
担保和无担保贷款，208
Secured and unsecured loans, 208
Segmentation, customer data measure, 377, 400–401
Segregation of Duties, 198–200, 215
选拔考试，367 –68
Selection Test, 367–68
Self-Elicitation, 269, 283–85, 312
Self-Regard, Excessive, 289–91, 342
服务
Services
吸引注意力（参见营销）
attention-getting for (See Marketing)
作为企业，要求51 –52
as business, requirements of, 51–52
排他性，128 –29
Exclusivity, 128–29
满足需求（参见 价值创造）
to fill wants and needs (See Value Creation)
定价（见 定价产品/服务）
Pricing (See Pricing products/services)
满足客户（见 价值交付）
satisfying customers (See Value Delivery)
可扩展性，缺乏，160
Scalability, lack of, 160
的类型（见 价值，形式）
types of (See Value, forms of)
设定点，224 –25
Set points, 224–25
Setup, in Negotiation, 131, 133
影子测试
Shadow Testing
关键假设，评估，82 –83
Critical Assumptions, evaluating with, 82–83
共享资源
Shared Resources
平衡，53
balance in, 53
定义, 49
defined, 49
-面向业务，要求，52 –53
-oriented business, requirements of, 52–53
希拉、亚伦和帕特里克，152 岁
Shira, Aaron and Patrick, 152
模拟，心理，234 –35
Simulation, Mental, 234–35
小型企业，增长，28 –29
Small businesses, growth of, 28–29
史密斯，帕特里克，85 –86
Smith, Patrick, 85–86
社会证明
Social Proof
绝望, 136
desperation, 136
消除购买风险，141-42
to eliminate risk of purchase, 141–42
339 –40的形式
forms of, 339–40
社交信号
Social signals
在小组互动中，338 –40
in group interaction, 338–40
奢侈品和, 186
luxury goods and, 186
社会地位, 43 –44, 65 , 77 , 241 –42, 343
Social Status, 43–44, 65, 77, 241–42, 343
乔尔·斯波尔斯基，354 –55年
Spolsky, Joel, 354–55
抽查，392
Spot checks, 392
Standard Operating Procedure, 214, 416–17, 419
州模型，325 –26
STATE model, 325–26
存在状态，272 –73
States of Being, 272–73
Statistics, recommended reading, 34, 388
状态故障，243 –44
Status Malfunction, 243–44
Status Signals, 44, 65, 186, 241–43
库存
Stock
public stock offering, 62–63, 209–10
资源, 360 –62
of resources, 360–62
石墙，325
Stonewalling, 325
Stress and Recovery, 267, 297–99
压力测试，425 –26
Stress Testing, 425–26
谈判中的结构，131-32
Structure, in Negotiation, 131–32
学生贷款，还清，31
Student loans, payoff, 31
订阅
Subscriptions
和允许购置成本 (ACC)，189
and Allowable Acquisition Cost (ACC), 189
客户重新激活，144
customer Reactivation, 144
定义, 49
defined, 49
- 面向业务，要求，53 – 54
-oriented business, requirements of, 53–54
盈利能力和终生价值，187 –88
profitability and Lifetime Value, 187–88
充足, 173 –75
Sufficiency, 173–75
和比较谬误，307
and Comparison Fallacy, 307
和定价能力，186-87
and Pricing Power, 186–87
和价值捕获，172
and Value Capture, 172
阳光与健康，219
Sunlight, and health, 219
可持续增长周期，429 –31
Sustainable Growth Cycle, 429–31
斯威茨勒，艾尔，325
Switzler, Al, 325
系统化
Systemization
165 –66的好处
benefits of, 165–66
清单，417 –18
checklisting, 417–18
定义，165
defined, 165
系统
Systems
操作分析（见 系统分析）
analysis of operation (See Systems analysis)
自催化，365 –66
Autocatalysis, 365–66
变化，371 –72
Change, 371–72
约束，362 –64
Constraint, 362–64
交易对手风险，373 –74
Counterparty Risk, 373–74
熵，368 –69
Entropy, 368–69
外部性，376 –78
Externality, 376–78
反馈回路，364 –65
Feedback Loop, 364–65
Interdependence in, 359, 372–73
正常事故，理论，378 –80
Normal Accidents, theory of, 378–80
性能改进（参见 系统改进）
performance improvement (See Systems improvement)
二阶效应，375 –76
Second-Order Effects, 375–76
松弛，361 –62
Slack, 361–62
库存，360 –62
Stock, 360–62
系统分析
Systems analysis
诚实分析，389 –90
Analytical Honesty, 389–90
背景，390 –91
Context, 390–91
相关性和因果关系，396 –97
Correlation and Causation, 396–97
解构主义，381 –83
Deconstruction, 381–83
垃圾输入，垃圾输出，386 –87
Garbage In, Garbage Out, 386–87
人性化，401 –2
Humanization, 401–2
关键绩效指标 (KPI)，384 –86
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), 384–86
误差幅度，392 –93
Margin of Error, 392–93
均值、中值、众数、中值、395 –96
mean, median, mode, midrange, 395–96
测量，383 –84
Measurement, 383–84
规范，398
Norms, 398
代理, 399 –400
Proxy, 399–400
比率, 394 –95
Ratios, 394–95
推荐阅读, 393 –94
recommended reading on, 393–94
采样, 391 –92
Sampling, 391–92
分割，400 – 401
Segmentation, 400–401
公差，387 –88
Tolerance in, 387–88
典型性，395 –96
Typicality, 395–96
方差，388 –89
Variance, 388–89
系统改进
Systems improvement
自动化，413 –16
Automation, 413–16
戒烟，420 –21
Cessation, 420–21
清单，417 –19
Checklist, 417–19
关键少数，407 –8
Critical Few, 407–8
收益递减，409 –10
Diminishing Returns, 409–10
实验心态，432
Experimental Mind-set, 432
勘探/开发，428 –29
Exploration/Exploitation, 428–29
故障保险，423 –25
Fail-safes, 423–25
摩擦力，411 –13
Friction, 411–13
干预偏差，403 –4
Intervention Bias, 403–4
中间路径，431 –32
Middle Path, 431–32
优化，405
Optimization, 405
过程开销，419
Process Overhead, 419
渐进式负载，410 –11
Progressive Load, 410–11
recommended reading for, 408–9, 417–18, 420
重构，406 –7
Refactoring, 406–7
韧性，421 –23
Resilience, 421–23
情景规划，426 –28
Scenario Planning, 426–28
标准操作程序，416 –17
Standard Operating Procedure, 416–17
压力测试，425 –26
Stress Testing, 425–26
可持续增长周期，429 –31
Sustainable Growth Cycle, 429–31
把小狗带回家的策略，143
Take the puppy home strategy, 143
Target monthly revenue (TMR), 174, 226
泰勒·弗雷德里克·W.，25 岁
Taylor, Frederick W., 25
团队合作。见 与他人合作
Teamwork. See Working with Others
乐购，55 岁
Tesco, 55
客户评价，340
Testimonials, 340
测试，299 –301
Testing, 299–301
撒普，罗兰·G.，284
Tharp, Roland G., 284
Theft and fraud prevention, 199, 214
第三方，作为缓冲器，133
Third parties, as Buffers, 133
思想实验，285 –87
Thought Experiment, 285–87
Threat Lockdown, mental, 246–48, 278, 288, 371
Throughput, 156–57, 361–62, 405
时间，作为通用货币，129
Time, as Universal Currency, 129
金钱的时间价值，202 –3
Time Value of Money, 202–3
公差，在系统中，387 –88
Tolerance, in Systems, 387–88
工具，作为力量倍增器，163 –64
Tools, as Force Multipliers, 163–64
丰田生产系统 (TPS), 148 , 160 –61, 414
Toyota Production System (TPS), 148, 160–61, 414
取舍
Trade-offs
创造，例子，75 – 76
creating, example of, 75–76
增量退化 as, 192 –93
Incremental Degradation as, 192–93
相对重要性测试，77 –79
Relative Importance Testing, 77–79
通用货币之间，130
between Universal Currencies, 130
在价值创造中，75 –76
in Value Creation, 75–76
交易，完成。查看 销售
Transactions, completing. See Sales
分流，166 –67
Triage, 166–67
相信
Trust
背景调查，117
background checks, 117
增加，具有破坏性入场，138 – 39
increasing, with Damaging Admission, 138–39
和销售交易, 117 –18, 125 , 127 , 343
and sales transaction, 117–18, 125, 127, 343
另见 声誉
See also Reputation
特维尔斯基，阿莫斯，103
Tversky, Amos, 103
Ultradian 节奏, 295 –96
Ultradian rhythm, 295–96
分拆。请参见 捆绑和解除捆绑
Unbundling. See Bundling and Unbundling
不确定性，369 –71
Uncertainty, 369–71
承保，59
Underwriting, 59
质量均匀性，152 –53
Uniformity of quality, 152–53
通用货币，129 –30
Universal Currencies, 129–30
威能，乔治，305
Vaillant, George, 305
估值，175 –76
Valuation, 175–76
价值，形式
Value, forms of
机构, 56 –57
Agency, 56–57
观众聚集, 57 –58
Audience Aggregation, 57–58
以及捆绑和分拆，66 –67
and Bundling and Unbundling, 66–67
资本, 62 –63
Capital, 62–63
保险，61 –62
Insurance, 61–62
租赁, 55 –56
Lease, 55–56
贷款，58 –59
Loans, 58–59
选项，60 –61
Options, 60–61
产品, 49 –51
Products, 49–51
原型，68 –69
Prototypes, 68–69
转售, 54 –55
Resale, 54–55
共享资源，52 –53
Shared Resources, 52–53
订阅，53 –54
Subscriptions, 53–54
基于价值的销售
Value-Based Selling
的元素, 124 –25
elements of, 124–25
消除购买风险，142
to eliminate risk of purchase, 142
价值捕获，171 –72
Value Capture, 171–72
价值比较定价法，122
Value comparison pricing method, 122
创造价值
Value Creation
备选方案，检查，73-74
Alternatives, examining, 73–74
关键假设，79 –81
Critical Assumptions, 79–81
现场测试，85 –86
Field Testing, 85–86
麻烦保费，63 –64
Hassle Premium, 63–64
增量增强，84 –85
Incremental Augmentation, 84–85
中介/非中介，67 –68
Intermediation/Disintermediation, 67–68
和迭代周期，69 –71
and Iteration Cycle, 69–71
最低可行报价，82 –84
Minimum Viable Offer, 82–84
和模块化，65 –66
and Modularity, 65–66
和感知价值，64 –65
and Perceived Value, 64–65
潜在购买，经济价值，76
potential purchase, Economic Values of, 76
产品开发，步骤，147
product development, steps in, 147
目的，37 – 38
purpose of, 37–38
recommended reading for, 41, 76
阴影测试，81 –82
Shadow Testing, 81–82
和权衡，75 – 78
and Trade-offs, 75–78
在价值流过程中，147 –48
in Value Stream process, 147–48
价值传递
Value Delivery
积累于160 –61
Accumulation in, 160–61
放大, 161 –62
Amplification in, 161–62
竞争，障碍，162 –63
Competition, Barriers to, 162–63
分布于149 –50
Distribution in, 149–50
重复, 157 –58
Duplication in, 157–58
预期效应，150 –51
Expectation Effect, 150–51
力倍增器，163 –64
Force Multipliers, 163–64
系统的乘法，158-59
Multiplication of systems, 158–59
152 –53的可预测性
Predictability in, 152–53
质量，153 –54
Quality, 153–54
质量信号，154 –55
Quality Signals, 154–55
推荐阅读，160 – 61
recommended reading for, 160–61
缩小，159 –60
Scale in, 159–60
系统化，165 –66
Systemization, 165–66
吞吐量，156 –57
Throughput in, 156–57
分流，166 –67
Triage, 166–67
价值流过程，147 –48
Value Stream process in, 147–48
Value Stream, 147–48, 156, 214
可变成本，191
Variable Costs, 191
方差，在系统分析中，388 –89
Variance, in Systems analysis, 388–89
风险投资，形式，209
Venture capital, forms of, 209
虚拟助手，268
Virtual assistants, 268
可视化
Visualization
客户，鼓励，102 –3
by customer, encouraging, 102–3
消除购买障碍，141
to remove Barriers to Purchase, 141
冯·米塞斯，路德维希，254
Von Mises, Ludwig, 254
大卫·L·沃森，284
Watson, David L., 284
意志力, 228 , 240 , 274 , 339 , 346
Willpower, 228, 240, 274, 339, 346
安德鲁·S. 温斯顿，250
Winston, Andrew S., 250
詹姆斯·P. 沃马克，160 –61
Womack, James P., 160–61
工作和生产力
Work and productivity
阿卡西亚，260 –62
Akrasia, 260–62
到达谬误，316 –17
Arrival Fallacy, 316–17
附件，309 –10
Attachment, 309–10
配料技术，266 –67
batching technique, 266–67
Cognitive Switching Penalty, 201, 265–67
比较谬误，306 –7
Comparison Fallacy, 306–7
完成，方法，267 – 68
Completion, Methods of, 267–68
确认偏差，292 –93
Confirmation Bias, 292–93
counterfactual simulation, 285–87, 427
决定，276 –78
Decisions, 276–78
世界末日场景，288 –89
Doomsday Scenario, 288–89
能量循环，295 –97
Energy Cycles, 295–97
过度自尊倾向，289 – 91
Excessive Self-regard Tendency, 289–91
外化，282 –83
Externalization, 282–83
目标，270 –72
Goals, 270–72
享乐跑步机，303 –6
Hedonic Treadmill, 303–6
事后偏见，293-94，313
限制信念，311 –13
Limiting Belief, 311–13
控制点，307 –8
Locus of Control, 307–8
单一理想主义，263 – 66
Monoidealism, 263–66
最重要的任务，269 –70
Most Important Tasks, 269–70
多任务处理，回避，265 –67
Multitasking, avoiding, 265–67
神秘主义，301 –2
Mystique, 301–2
选择的必要性，315 –16
Necessity of Choice, 315–16
下一步行动，280 –82
Next Action, 280–82
性能负载，294 –95
Performance Load, 294–95
个人研发，310 –11
Personal Research and Development, 310–11
番茄工作法，264 –65
Pomodoro Technique, 264–65
推荐阅读275 , 277 , 284 , 295 , 303 , 310
recommended reading for, 275, 277, 284, 295, 303, 310
Self-Elicitation, 269, 283–85, 312
存在状态，272 –73
States of Being, 272–73
Stress and Recovery, 267, 297–99
和团队（见与他人合作）
and Team (See Working with Others)
测试，299 –301
Testing, 299–301
思想实验，285 –87
Thought Experiment, 285–87
3-10-20 方法，267
3-10-20 method, 267
与他人合作
Working with Others
归因错误，346 –47
Attribution Error, 346–47
权威，340 –42
Authority, 340–42
边界设置，348 –49
Boundary Setting, 348–49
旁观者冷漠，331 –32
Bystander Apathy, 331–32
慈善原则，350 –51
Charity, Principle of, 350–51
Commander’s Intent, 328–29, 348, 353
承诺和一致性，342 –44
Commitment and Consistency, 342–44
Communication Overhead, 322–24, 329
Comparative Advantage, 320–21, 353
收敛与发散，338 –39
Convergence and Divergence, 338–39
强制功能，334
Forcing Function, 334
重要性，感觉，324 –25
Importance, feeling of, 324–25
Incentive-Caused Bias, 344–45, 385, 390
管理，352 –55
Management, 352–55
读心谬误，347 –48
Mind-Reading Fallacy, 347–48
模态偏差，345 –46
Modal Bias, 345–46
期权导向，351 –52
Option Orientation, 351–52
基于绩效的招聘，355 –57
Performance-Based Hiring, 355–57
计划谬误，332 –33
Planning Fallacy, 332–33
和权力，319 –20
and Power, 319–20
行动的原因，给予，328
reasons for action, giving, 328
推荐阅读320 –21、323、325 –27、330、332、334、339、343 –44、346、350 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
recommended reading for, 320–21, 323, 325–27, 330, 332, 334, 339, 343–44, 346, 350
转介, 335 –36
Referrals, 335–36
安全，感觉，325 –26
Safety, feeling of, 325–26
社会认同，339 –40
Social Proof, 339–40
社交信号，338 –40
Social signals, 338–40
沃兹尼亚克，史蒂夫，290
Wozniak, Steve, 290
Y 组合器，174
Y Combinator, 174
美捷步，150 –51
Zappos, 150–51
关于作者
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
乔什·考夫曼 (Josh Kaufman) 是商业、创业、技能获取、生产力、创造力、应用心理学和实践智慧方面书籍的畅销书作者。他的工作重点是帮助人们赚更多的钱，完成更多的工作，并在生活和工作中获得更多乐趣。
Josh Kaufman is the bestselling author of books on business, entrepreneurship, skill acquisition, productivity, creativity, applied psychology, and practical wisdom. His work focuses on helping people make more money, get more done, and have more fun in life and work.
在创建 PersonalMBA.com 之前，Josh 曾在 Procter & Gamble 从事品牌管理、产品开发和营销衡量工作，在那里他推出了主要的新产品并制定了 P&G 的全球在线营销衡量战略。他住在科罗拉多州柯林斯堡。
Before creating PersonalMBA.com, Josh worked in brand management, product development, and marketing measurement for Procter & Gamble, where he launched major new products and developed P&G’s global online-marketing measurement strategy. He lives in Fort Collins, Colorado.
您可以在joshkaufman.net找到更多 Josh 的研究和著作。
You can find more of Josh’s research and writing at joshkaufman.net.
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